Will the average selling price of Toronto condo apartments fall below C$600,000 in 2026?

- [2026-04 to 2026-07] Two of the four relevant reports are already out. Both are above C$600K, so neither triggers Yes. Q1 2026 City of Toronto condo apartment average: $649,330, down from $711,258 in Q1 2025 (TRREB Q1 report). Q2 2026 City of Toronto average: $667,916, versus $717,403 in Q2 2025. https://trreb.ca/wp-content/files/market-stats/condo-reports/condo_report_Q2-2026.pdf (Q1: https://trreb.ca/wp-content/files/market-stats/condo-reports/condo_report_Q1-2026.pdf) - [2026-10-06] TRREB's September 2026 Market Watch shows the City of Toronto ("416") condo apartment average at $640,248, down 6.1% year on year, on 884 sales. The 905 average was $533,654. The GTA-wide condo apartment average was $605,257. https://trreb.ca/wp-content/files/market-stats/market-watch/mw2609.pdf - [2026-10-06] Storeys confirms the $640,248 Toronto figure. It also reports month-end condo listings of 5,329 in Toronto, about 6 per monthly sale. https://storeys.com/gta-condos-trreb-market-watch/ - [2026-10-06] Elevate Partners reports the 416 condo average was $681,115 in September 2025 and $640,248 in September 2026, about 3% below its 10-year September average. It also reports a 416 condo sales-to-new-listings ratio of 29% and an average of 40 days on market. https://www.elevatepartners.ca/resources/toronto-real-estate-market-trends-2026-09/ - [2026-10-06] The 416 condo average fell 1.8% from August to September (Toronto Livings). That implies an August average of about $652K. This is my arithmetic from a secondary source. https://www.torontolivings.com/toronto-real-estate-in-september-2026-more-listings-more-choice-more-patience/ - [2026-06 and earlier] Monthly City of Toronto condo averages from a secondary site that cites TRREB Market Watch: January $631,932, February $663,984, March $648,287, June $665,760. The January figure is the lowest in 2026 so far and is still above $600K. https://michaelouzas.com/toronto-condo-stats/ - [2026-10-13] The Q3 2026 Condo Market Report is not yet published. The TRREB URL pattern condo_report_Q3-2026.pdf returned 404 today. The Q2 report came out after July 2026 data (its footer cites July mortgage rates). Q3 is probably due in mid to late October. https://trreb.ca/wp-content/files/market-stats/condo-reports/condo_report_Q3-2026.pdf - [2026-10-13] A Q3 City of Toronto average below $600K would need the July–September pooled average to be well under the September figure. Monthly 416 data points are about $640K for September and about $652K for August. I did not find the July 416 figure. This is inference, not a reported number. - [2026-10-06] GTA-wide condo apartment prices fell 2.0% month on month and 7.6–7.7% year on year in September. The Q2 report says year-on-year price declines should keep narrowing in the second half, and it expects price growth to renew in 2027. https://wowa.ca/toronto-housing-market - [2026-07] TRREB Q2 report macro context: Bank of Canada overnight rate 2.8% (June 2026 reading shown beside it). Q2 GTA-wide condo sales were up 8.8% year on year, and active listings were down 15.4%. https://trreb.ca/wp-content/files/market-stats/condo-reports/condo_report_Q2-2026.pdf - [Upcoming] The Q4 2026 report would cover October–December. Its publication date is not confirmed. The Q4 2025 report timing would show whether it lands before the Feb 4, 2027 close. I did not verify this. The October and November Market Watch releases (early Nov and early Dec) will give interim 416 condo readings. BOTTOM LINE: Q1 ($649,330) and Q2 ($667,916) are already above $600K. The latest monthly City of Toronto condo average is $640,248 (September), so Q3 is very likely to print in the $640–660K range. Yes would therefore depend on a sharp Q4 drop of roughly 6% or more below September's level, and that report may publish near or after the Feb 4, 2027 close. NOT FOUND: The Q3 2026 condo report, the July and August 2026 City of Toronto condo figures from TRREB primary files, the Q4 2026 report date, and any 2026 quarter below $600K.

- [2026-10-13] The first published Q1 and Q2 2026 TRREB Condo Market Reports both put City of Toronto condo apartments well above C$600k. Q1 2026 was C$649,330, below the $711,258 recorded in Q1 2025 . Q2 2026 was C$667,916 versus $717,403 in Q2 2025 . The Q2 figure is from the fetched TRREB PDF. https://trreb.ca/wp-content/files/market-stats/condo-reports/condo_report_Q2-2026.pdf - [2026-10-13] The Q3 2026 condo report URL returned 404, so it is not yet published. The Q2 report appeared after July data, in early August. Q3 and Q4 are the only reports left that could trigger YES. Q4 would likely publish around Jan–Feb 2027, possibly after the 2027-02-04 close. https://trreb.ca/wp-content/files/market-stats/condo-reports/condo_report_Q3-2026.pdf - [2026-10-06] September 2026 monthly City of Toronto (416) condo apartment average was C$640,248, down 6.1% YoY, on 884 sales. The GTA total was C$605,257. This is the most recent monthly data point and sits in Q3. https://trreb.ca/wp-content/files/market-stats/market-watch/mw2609.pdf - [2026-08-06] July 2026 City of Toronto condo average was C$672,807, down 1.6% YoY, with 1,054 sales. Q3 months so far are about C$673k (July) and C$640k (September). I did not find the August figure. A Q3 quarterly average therefore likely lands in the high C$640ks to mid-C$660ks. That is an inference, not a published figure. https://www.mpamag.com/ca/mortgage-industry/market-updates/gta-condo-market-stays-under-pressure-as-july-listings-shrink/585258 - [2026-07] 2026 City of Toronto monthly condo averages, via TRREB Market Watch: Jan C$631,932; Feb C$663,984; Mar C$648,287; Apr C$665,507; May C$673,841; Jun C$665,760. The lowest month of the year was January, still above C$600k. https://michaelouzas.com/toronto-condo-stats/ - [2026-10-03] Year-over-year declines are persisting. September's City of Toronto condo average was C$640,248 against C$681,115 in September 2025. One analyst says the average 416 condo is $640,248, back to 2019 levels . It calls the figure about 3% below the September 10-year average of C$657,388. https://www.elevatepartners.ca/resources/toronto-real-estate-market-trends-2026-09/ - [2026-10-06] Mix shift: 67.9% of September GTA condo sales were under C$600k, and 45% were under C$500k, up from 27% a year ago. This pushes averages down, but the City of Toronto average has stayed well above C$600k. https://storeys.com/gta-condos-trreb-market-watch/ - [2026-08] Outside-view reference class: through Q2 2026, I found no quarterly City of Toronto condo average below C$600k in the reports seen. Recent quarterly values ran from C$649k to C$717k. A year-over-year drop of 6–9% from Q4 2025 would be needed to approach C$600k. I did not retrieve the Q4 2025 value. Mid-2024 GTA-wide condo averages were roughly C$683k, from a secondary source. https://condo123.ca/blog/toronto-condo-market-2026 - [2026-08] TRREB's Q2 commentary said that if sales keep improving against inventory, the annual rate of price decline should continue to diminish , setting up price growth in 2027. Active condo listings were down 15.4% YoY at 8,061 and sales were up 8.8%. This points away from a sharp Q4 drop. https://trreb.ca/wp-content/files/market-stats/condo-reports/condo_report_Q2-2026.pdf - [2026-01] TRREB's early-2026 forecast was a GTA all-type average of C$1.0–1.03M, with prices lower in H1 and stabilising in H2. Condo-specific consensus was "bottoming out", not a further plunge. https://www.deeded.ca/blog/blog-toronto-condo-market-january-2026-update - [2026-10] A data trap: GTA-wide condo averages (Q2 C$634,972; September C$605,257) are much lower than City of Toronto averages. The contract uses City of Toronto only. Some sources, such as nesto's "composite" C$531k and the HPI-style figures, are not the TRREB average-price series. https://wowa.ca/toronto-housing-market - [2026-10-13] The trailing 12-month YoY decline is steady at roughly 6–9% for the Toronto condo average. A Q4 2025 base near C$650–680k (unverified) would put Q4 2026 near C$610–640k if the decline continued. That is closer to the threshold than Q3, but still above it. BOTTOM LINE: Across the reports seen, no quarterly City of Toronto condo average has been below C$600k. Q1 was C$649k and Q2 was C$668k. Q3 is tracking about C$640–670k, and Q4 would need a drop of roughly 6–10% from recent levels. The late-January or early-February publication of Q4 may also fall after the market's close. NOT FOUND: Published Q3 2026 condo report; August 2026 City of Toronto condo average; Q4 2025 City of Toronto quarterly condo average; any prediction-market, poll or expert estimate on a sub-C$600k City of Toronto quarterly average.

YES means: a TRREB Condo Market Report covering a 2026 quarter (first published version) shows a City of Toronto condo apartment average selling price below C$600,000. - [2026-10-13] The Q3 2026 City of Toronto average is mostly locked in, and it is not a YES path. I pooled the three monthly figures, weighting by sales: July $672,807 on 1,054 sales (mpamag, in the earlier report), August $651,648 on 885 (Toronto Livings and localtoronto, both citing TRREB), and September $640,248 on 884 (TRREB Market Watch, fetched). The pooled average is about $656K. That is roughly $56K above the threshold, so the best YES case rests on Q4 alone. https://www.torontolivings.com/toronto-real-estate-market-update-august-2026/ - [2026-10-13] The Q4 2025 base for the City of Toronto was $690,607 (TRREB Q4 2025 report), against $715,920 in Q4 2024, a 3.5% drop. Q4 2026 would need to be about 13% below Q4 2025 to get under $600K. The September YoY rate of -6.1% implies only about $649K. YES needs the annual decline to roughly double within a quarter. https://public.trreb.ca/market-data/condo-market-report - [2026-10-13] The mechanism for a sharp Q4 drop is the mix shift toward cheaper units. The Sept 6 figures show the 416 condo average falling 1.8% month on month, and the 416 index sits at about 2019 levels. The TRREB benchmark (HPI) apartment price in the City of Toronto is $543,800 (-6.36% YoY). The average runs above the benchmark because large and luxury units pull it up. If the high-end share of sales shrinks further, the average can converge toward the benchmark. At $543.8K, that gap is about $96K today. https://trreb.ca/wp-content/files/market-stats/market-watch/mw2609.pdf - [2026-10-13] Median sales prices are far below the average. Median sold was about $550K in August (localtoronto, citing TRREB) and $570K in Q1 (TRREB Q1 report). A mean-median gap of about $100K means a handful of luxury sales drive the average. A thin Q4, historically the seasonally weakest quarter, could pull the average down sharply. 2025 shows the pattern: Q4 2025 was $690,607 against Q3 2025's $677,095, so the average did not fall in that case. https://www.localtoronto.com/condo-for-sale-toronto/ - [2026-10-13] Monthly averages show the volatility that a YES path would need. The City of Toronto average ran from $631,932 in January to $673,841 in May, a $42K swing within the year. A Q4 print of about $600K would need a trough month about 5% below January's low, plus weak October and November. The lowest quarterly average so far is Q1 at $649,330. https://taleenchouljian.com/hosted/users/48031/2026Q1_TRREB_Condo_Report.pdf - [2026-09-29] A bearish institutional forecast exists but is far too mild. Royal LePage (December 2025) projected GTA-wide condos falling 6.5%, from $658,700 to $615,885 by Q4 2026. That is the GTA-wide figure, which runs below the City of Toronto average, and it is still above $600K. A 416 average under $600K would require far more than this forecast. https://www.blogto.com/real-estate-toronto/2025/12/average-toronto-condo-will-lose-value-2026/ - [2026-10-06] Supply and demand are still soft for condos. The GTA-wide September condo average of $605,257 is already near $600K, but it is a different series from the City of Toronto and does not count. Condo apartment sales are down 5.5% YoY in the 416 and 12.4% in the 905, and the deepest price decline of any type is in condos (-7.6% GTA-wide). New listings jumped more than 36% from August across the GTA, which gives buyers choice into Q4. Sellers are back while buyers hold off. https://wowa.ca/toronto-housing-market - [2026-10-13] The largest practical obstacle to YES is timing, not price. The TRREB archive page (08/31/2026) lists Q2 as the latest report, and the Q3 report is not out. I could not confirm the Q4 2025 report's release date. If Q4 2026 comes out after 2027-02-04, only Q3 can count, and Q3 is about $656K. A YES would therefore need an early Q4 release (late January) and a roughly 13% fall. https://trreb.ca/market-data/condo-market-report/condo-market-report-archive/ BOTTOM LINE: The only route to YES is a Q4 2026 report, published before the Feb 4, 2027 close, showing a City of Toronto average about 13% below Q4 2025 and about 8% below the Q3 average of roughly $656K. That requires a sudden mix collapse toward small, cheap units, which recent data, with the YoY decline narrowing from 8–9% earlier in the year, does not support. NOT FOUND: The published Q3 2026 report; the Q4 2025 report's release date; any forecaster projecting a 416 condo average under $600K; October 2026 monthly data.

YES means: TRREB's first-published City of Toronto condo apartment average is below C$600,000 in a Q1, Q2, Q3 or Q4 2026 Condo Market Report. - [2026-10-13] **Q3 arithmetic.** I combined the three monthly City of Toronto (416) condo averages, weighted by sales. July was $672,807 on 1,054 sales (mpamag, Aug 6). August was $651,648 on 885 sales (Toronto Livings, Sept 29; localtoronto.com repeats the figure from TRREB's August Market Watch). September was $640,248 on 884 sales (colleagues, Oct 6). The pooled Q3 average is about $656K. That is my calculation, not a published figure. Q3 would need to fall about $56K, so Q3 cannot realistically trigger YES. https://www.mpamag.com/ca/mortgage-industry/market-updates/gta-condo-market-stays-under-pressure-as-july-listings-shrink/585258 - [2026-09-29] **August was firmer than earlier in the year.** The August 416 condo average was down only 2.4% year on year, versus 8–9% declines earlier in 2026. The GTA all-type average fell just 2.7% year on year, the smallest decline of 2026, and rose on a seasonally adjusted basis. The decline in the City of Toronto condo average narrowed before September's 6.1% drop. The gap to $600K is therefore not widening in a straight line. https://www.torontolivings.com/toronto-real-estate-market-update-august-2026/ - [2026-01 to 2026-02] **Q4 2025 base.** The City of Toronto condo average was $690,607 on 2,643 sales, versus $715,920 in Q4 2024 (TRREB Q4 2025 report). Q4 2025 was higher than Q3 2025's $677,095, so there was no seasonal dip into year-end last year. For Q4 2026 to print below $600K, it would need to fall about 13% year on year. The 2026 year-on-year declines have been 5.0–8.7% (Q1 8.7%, Q2 6.9%, September 6.1%). https://trreb.ca/wp-content/files/market-stats/condo-reports/condo_report_Q4-2025.pdf - [2026-10-13] **Q4 gap versus the September exit rate.** Q4 would need to average about $40K (6%) below September's $640K. The sub-$600K reading would have to come in the quarter-end months. Nothing in the 2026 monthly series shows a move that large. The largest month-to-month fall I can see is September's 1.8%, and the lowest month of 2026 was January at about $632K. 2026 has not produced a single quarter or month below $630K at the City of Toronto level. - [2026-10-13] **Q4 timing risk.** The Q4 2025 report's economic-indicator panel quotes November 2025 rates, so it was compiled before December's rate data and probably appeared in early January. I could not confirm its release date. Q4 2026 would probably publish by about Feb 4, 2027, but a slip past the close is possible. That gives a small extra route to NO. https://trreb.ca/wp-content/files/market-stats/condo-reports/condo_report_Q4-2025.pdf - [2026-10-13] **Resolution wording.** The contract uses the City of Toronto geography and the "condominium apartment" type, and resolves on the first-published report. Sub-$600K figures that do exist are the wrong series, so they are traps for YES: the GTA-wide September average of $605,257, GTA Q1 of $618,484, Toronto East district figures near $537K, medians near $550–575K, and nesto's HPI composite of $531K. None of these count. The TRREB Q1 2026 report separates the City of Toronto at $649,330 from the GTA-wide $618,484. https://www.taleenchouljian.com/hosted/users/48031/2026Q1_TRREB_Condo_Report.pdf - [2026-08-24] **Medians are lower but irrelevant.** One site reports a City of Toronto condo median sold price of $570K for August 2026. Another reports $550K for apartments. The contract asks for the average, which large and luxury units pull up. About $100K separates average from median, which is why the average sits well above $600K while half of sales are below it. https://condogo.ca/market/toronto - [2026-10-13] **Inertia.** Neither released report was below $600K, and the Q3 pooled average is about $656K. The status quo is therefore NO unless the Q4 report both prints about 13% below Q4 2025 and publishes before the close. The mix shift toward sub-$500K sales (colleagues, Oct 6) has already shown up in the 2026 averages without breaking $630K. - [2026-09-02] **Policy and rate backdrop.** The Bank of Canada held its rate on Sept 2, its seventh straight hold after nine cuts through October 2025, and the next decision is Oct 28. Cumulative cuts from 2024–25 are already in prices. A shock large enough to push the Q4 average down sharply would have to be new. No shock is visible, and TRREB's president flagged tightening inventory in the August release. https://houseindex.ca/blog/toronto-gta-housing-market-forecast-2026 - [2026-10-09] **Inventory is shrinking, not swelling.** Month-end listings of 4,938 apartments (August) against 885 sales gave about 5.5 months of supply. That is balanced-to-soft, not a collapse. Colleagues reported GTA active condo listings down 15.4% year on year in Q2. September new listings jumped about 37% from August, but sales did not follow. https://www.localtoronto.com/condo-for-sale-toronto/ BOTTOM LINE: Q3 is tracking about $656K, which is $56K above the line, and Q4 would need to print about 13% below Q4 2025 and about 6% below September to hit Yes. Q4 may also publish near or after the Feb 4 close, so the status-quo path of No on both quarters is strong. NOT FOUND: The Q3 2026 report, TRREB's primary August 2026 Market Watch PDF (August came via secondary sites), the Q4 2025 report's actual release date, and any October 2026 monthly data.