Will Diesel Price on October 31, 2026 be above $6.30?

The ambiguity is that the contract's resolution source isn't stated. I assume it is the AAA national average, because Kalshi's diesel contracts have used AAA. The EIA weekly series is a possible alternative. - [2026-10-13] The AAA national diesel average was $6.2787. The prior day was $6.2665, a week earlier $6.3151, and a month earlier $6.2040. This is about 2 cents under the $6.30 strike. https://www.rigzone.com/news/gasbuddy_flags_fragile_calm_at_the_pump-13-oct-2026-184834-article - [2026-10-13] GasBuddy's diesel average was $6.248, down 5.9 cents on the week. Its analyst called the trend "cautiously in the right direction". He added that hurricane season and geopolitics make it too early to call the pressure resolved. Hurricane Isaias has passed, and two refineries in its path are awaiting status updates. https://www.rigzone.com/news/gasbuddy_flags_fragile_calm_at_the_pump-13-oct-2026-184834-article - [2026-09-22] The AAA record was $6.53, set on Sept. 22. Diesel was $3.73 in late February, before the US and Israel attacked Iran. https://cbsnews.com/news/trump-russian-diesel-imports-prices - [2026-10-05] The EIA weekly on-highway diesel average was $6.199, down 18.3 cents from $6.382. The record was $6.529 in the week of Sept 21. The next EIA releases are Oct 14, and weekly after that through Oct 26 and Nov 2. https://www.indexbox.io/blog/eia-weekly-fuel-update-gasoline-and-diesel-prices-ease-on-october-6-2026/ - [2026-10-12] NYMEX ULSD futures closed at $4.696, down 4.2 cents on the day. On Oct 5 they were $4.545. Retail typically lags wholesale by one to two weeks. https://worldoilmonitor.com/diesel-market - [2026-10-09] ULSD fell $0.227 (4.6%) to $4.73 after Trump announced a diesel deal with Putin: 300,000 tons immediately, 500,000 tons in November, and more later. The Trump administration has also proposed a ban on US diesel exports. https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/world-policy/article/2026/10/09/ulsd-futures-fall-4-us-russia-diesel - [2026-10-12] Crude rose nearly 2% after weekend attacks on Saudi infrastructure. Front-month ULSD fell 2.3 cents to $4.7154. Analysts doubt the Russian diesel volumes matter: one purchase of about 3.75M bbl is roughly one day of US consumption. https://dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/world-policy/article/2026/10/12/oil-rises-mideast-risks-despite-us - [2026-10-09] US distillate stocks were 105.1M bbl, steady on the week and 13.5% below a year earlier. https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/world-policy/article/2026/10/09/ulsd-futures-fall-4-us-russia-diesel - [2026-10-13] Brent was about $105.85 and WTI about $93.48 on the Rigzone ticker. The Rigzone article also says the IEA will meet "in the coming days" on possible additional diesel releases. https://www.rigzone.com/news/gasbuddy_flags_fragile_calm_at_the_pump-13-oct-2026-184834-article - [2026-10-06] Kalshi sibling markets: a "Diesel price on Election Day (Nov 3)" ladder, plus a year-end 2026 ladder. A report said traders were positioned for ≤$6.20 on Nov 3 after Trump's order opening dyed diesel to highway use. These figures may be stale. https://cryptobriefing.com/kalshi-traders-us-diesel-prices-620/ - [2026-10-07] EIA's STEO says retail distillate will stay above $6/gal in October and then ease gradually. It also says inventories will stay below average, keeping cracks elevated. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/petro_prod.php - [2026-10-12] Midterm elections are on Nov 3. The administration is actively pushing diesel-lowering policy before then. https://dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/world-policy/article/2026/10/12/oil-rises-mideast-risks-despite-us BOTTOM LINE: AAA diesel is about $6.28, slightly below the $6.30 strike. It is drifting down from the $6.53 record, and wholesale ULSD (about $4.70, down from about $4.9–5.0 in late September) points to further modest retail easing. Upside risks are Mideast escalation, hurricane-hit refineries, and tight stocks. Downside factors are the Russia deal, the export-ban proposal, tax measures and the pre-election push. NOT FOUND: The official Kalshi rules page naming the exact source (AAA vs EIA) and timestamp for Oct 31. The live AAA page for Oct 13 beyond the Rigzone quote. The EIA Oct 14 release. Direct quotes of wholesale prices after Oct 12.

- [2026-10-13] The AAA national diesel average was $6.2787 on Oct 13. It was $6.2665 on Oct 12, $6.3151 a week earlier and $6.2040 a month earlier. The $6.30 strike is about 2 cents above spot. GasBuddy's average was $6.248, down 5.9 cents on the week. https://rigzone.com/news/gasbuddy_flags_fragile_calm_at_the_pump-13-oct-2026-184834-article - [2026-09-22] AAA's record was about $6.53 on Sept 22. EIA's weekly series peaked at $6.529 for the week of Sept 21. AAA was $5.85 on Sept 4, and diesel was about $3.73 in late February before the Iran war. The move is a war-driven spike that has now fallen back about 25 cents from the peak. https://cbsnews.com/news/trump-russian-diesel-imports-prices - [2026-10-05] EIA weekly series (FRED): 9/07 5.967, 9/14 6.285, 9/21 6.529, 9/28 6.382, 10/05 6.199. The next release is Oct 14 (Oct 13 on the FRED listing). Weekly moves of 15–30 cents are common in this regime, so a 2-week-ahead change has a wide spread. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GASDESLSW - [2026-10-12] NYMEX ULSD futures closed at $4.696 on Oct 12. At the Oct 9 settle they were $4.73, down 4.6% on the day after the Trump–Putin diesel deal. The Sept peak was about $5.20. Retail follows wholesale with a lag of a week or two. If futures hold near $4.70, retail drifts lower or stays flat. https://worldoilmonitor.com/diesel-market - [2026-10-09] Distillate stocks were 105.1 million bbl, 13.5% below a year ago. Trump proposed a diesel export ban and announced a Russian supply deal (300k t now, 500k t in November). China was reported set to lift its de-facto fuel export ban. De Haan is skeptical that the deal will deliver relief. https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/world-policy/article/2026/10/09/ulsd-futures-fall-4-us-russia-diesel - [2026-10-13] Upside risks: tanker strikes in Hormuz on Oct 10, attacks on Saudi infrastructure, and Hurricane Isaias, with two refineries in its path awaiting updates. Brent was about $105. The IEA is meeting Oct 15 on additional diesel stock releases. The G7 announced 100M bbl of releases with a front-loaded diesel component. https://rigzone.com/news/gasbuddy_flags_fragile_calm_at_the_pump-13-oct-2026-184834-article - [2026-10-06] EIA STEO says retail distillate prices stay above $6/gal in October and then come down gradually. It also says inventories below average keep crack spreads elevated. This is a gradual-decline forecast, not a forecast of a spike. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/petro_prod.php - [2026-10-06] An executive order opened dyed (tax-exempt) diesel to highway use. Kalshi traders were reported betting the national average would be at or below $6.20 on Nov 3 (Election Day). This is a sibling market and the report may be stale. https://cryptobriefing.com/kalshi-traders-us-diesel-prices-620/ - [2026-09-28] Kalshi sibling contracts and the year-end diesel market: above $6.20 at 57%, above $6.40 at 38%, above $6.60 at 54% (inconsistent, likely thin trading). The snapshot is about 18 days old. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxdieselye/diesel-prices-at-year-end/kxdieselye-26dec31 - [2026-10-13] Base-rate context: in 2022, diesel fell from its June record of $5.81 to about $5.1–5.3 by August. It then rebounded in October–November 2022 on low distillate stocks before declining. In spikes, a retrace of 5–10% from peak followed by a re-test is common. The 2022 comparison is from my background knowledge and was not verified in these searches. The current level of $6.28 is about 4% below the peak. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/index.php?tg=+diesel - [2026-10-07] Resolution source: the question does not say which series it uses. Kalshi's diesel markets historically use AAA's national average, though that was not verified. EIA's weekly figure ran about 5–8 cents below AAA recently: EIA was 6.199 on Oct 5 against a AAA figure near 6.3. https://weeklydiesel.com/history/2026/ BOTTOM LINE: Spot is about 2 cents below the $6.30 strike with 18 days to run. Wholesale ULSD fell about 8–10% from the September peak, which implies mild downward drift in retail. Policy relief is also in play. Geopolitical and hurricane risk keeps the upside fat-tailed, so the outside view is a near coin flip leaning slightly toward No. NOT FOUND: The live Kalshi price for this exact contract (not searched, per instructions), the exact resolution source (AAA or EIA) and time of day, the Oct 14 EIA print, and any ULSD forward curve for late October retail.

YES means: the Diesel Price on Oct 31, 2026 is above $6.30. The resolution source isn't stated. AAA's national average is the likely one, and the EIA weekly figure is the alternative. - [2026-10-12] The strongest YES path is a late-October supply shock that lifts wholesale ULSD back toward or above $5.00. Retail would then re-test the $6.5 area. A fall in the AAA average to below $6.30 would need only a modest rebound, since spot is about 2 cents under the strike. Heating oil was $4.714 on Oct 13 while Brent rose 1.66% to $106.5 and WTI 1.81% to $93.51. Crude is rising while diesel falls, so the crack is compressing and could widen again. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-Record-Crude-Output-Cant-Solve-Americas-Diesel-Crisis.html - [2026-10-09] Hurricane Isaias is the main near-term trigger. Analyst Andy Lipow said that if the Chevron Pascagoula and Vertex Mobile refineries lose power, "prices will spike immediately. It's possible a dollar." He added that diesel "could start approaching $7." The two plants are 2.4% of US refining capacity, and a full shutdown could take weeks to recover from. Prerequisite: the plants were damaged or lost power. As of Oct 9, Chevron said Pascagoula remained operational, and Vertex had not commented. https://www.ttnews.com/articles/hurricane-isaias-fuel-prices - [2026-10-09] Offshore Gulf shut-ins were about 1.3M bpd, or 63% of Gulf output. Gulf Coast refineries are running at 95% of capacity, so there is no slack to replace lost output. If the plants did shut down, restarting would take 1–2 weeks even without damage. That timing falls inside the 18 days before Oct 31. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/09/hurricane-isaias-gulf-mexico-oil-refinery.html - [2026-10-09] Distillate stocks are at their lowest level for early October since tracking started in the early 1980s. Mizuho's Yawger said losing refining capacity would basically force a diesel export ban. Such a ban would add political uncertainty and could cut refinery runs. https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/08/economy/isaias-oil-refineries-gulf-coast-hurricanes - [2026-10-09] A structural argument for stickiness: EIA expects distillate stocks to fall below 100 million barrels and stay under the five-year range through much of 2027. Distillate is about 30% of refinery yield, and utilization averaged roughly 96% last quarter. Russia, China and the Middle East have all curbed supply. Prices would not fall quickly even without a new shock. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-Record-Crude-Output-Cant-Solve-Americas-Diesel-Crisis.html - [2026-10-12] The Hormuz tracker shows the strait effectively closed to commercial shipping. IMF PortWatch counted 4 transits on Oct 4 against a normal 85 a day. It put the odds of a return to normal by Oct 31 at 1%, citing a Polymarket market. Iran called the US reply to its seven conditions insufficient. Tanker strikes continued on Oct 11. No diplomatic relief is visible before the deadline. https://straits.live/ - [2026-10-07] Shipping costs add to the squeeze. Baltic Exchange data showed a VLCC US-to-Asia voyage at a record $77M, against a 2025 average of $9.2M. UK officials reported at least nine Hormuz attacks so far in October. Brent was above $101 on Oct 7. https://www.ttnews.com/articles/oil-shipping-costs-new-highs and https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/oil-prices-climb-above-100-on-strait-of-hormuz-attacks-gulf-storm-threat-122612488.html - [2026-10-09] Policy relief may be weaker than it looks. Trump said the US would not ban diesel exports, per The Hill's headline. This conflicts with the Oct 9 DTN framing of a "proposal". The G7's 100M-bbl release is spread over four months, with a diesel tranche front-loaded within 20 days. A Russian purchase of about 3.75M bbl equals roughly one day of US use (Oct 12 DTN). Relief is therefore small against a global shortfall. https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/6126914-g7-releases-massive-fuel-stock/ (not fetched; headline and snippet only) - [2026-10-12] AAA's retail diesel is only a day or two off $6.30 and has moved above and below it recently. It was $6.32 a week ago and $6.37 on about Oct 2. The daily series hovers within cents of the strike, so a small wholesale bounce is enough. The Oct 12 AAA figure was $6.2665 against $6.2771 the day before. https://energynewsbeat.co/diesel/trumps-energy-truce-hinges-on-russian-refineries-and-seven-senators-say-the-diesel-deal-defies-a-2022-law - [2026-10-13] The retail-to-wholesale spread supports a floor under retail. EIA retail was $6.199 on Oct 5, against a Gulf Coast spot of about $4.565. The spread is about $1.63 (+36%), which is wide. Retail at $6.28 against futures near $4.70 is about $1.58, so retail is not obviously "too high" and has little room to fall without lower wholesale prices. Futures at $4.55 on Oct 5 sat alongside retail of $6.20–6.30. https://valueofenergy.com/diesel/price-today - [2026-10-13] Brent price risk: Energy Aspects says crude is underpriced, and BMI expects Brent above $100 for months (oilprice.com headlines, Oct 13). Saudi attacks lifted crude about 2% on Oct 12–13. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-Record-Crude-Output-Cant-Solve-Americas-Diesel-Crisis.html BOTTOM LINE: The YES case needs only a roughly 2-cent rise from spot. It is carried by Isaias refinery damage, Hormuz escalation or a Saudi supply hit, and record-low stocks that amplify any shock. Policy relief (the Russian deal, the G7 release) is small against global supply. NOT FOUND: Post-Isaias status of the Chevron Pascagoula and Vertex Mobile refineries, the Oct 14 EIA print, the Kalshi rules naming the resolution source, and a ULSD forward curve for late October.

YES means: the diesel price figure that Kalshi uses for October 31, 2026 (most likely the AAA national average) is above $6.30. The strike is a strict ">" test. - [2026-10-13] The AAA page itself (indexed snapshot, Current Avg $6.2665) shows week-ago $6.3207 and month-ago $6.1602. The 10/12 reading is 5.4 cents below a week earlier, and the 10/11 to 10/12 move was down 1.1 cents. Colleagues' later 10/13 figure ($6.2787) was a 1.2-cent uptick. The AAA series moves in small daily steps, so it has been at or below $6.30 since about Oct 8. https://gasprices.aaa.com/ - [2026-10-07] MacroMicro's AAA series put diesel at $6.30 on Oct 7 and $6.32 on Oct 5. Both are right at the strike and no higher. Since Oct 5 the AAA series has not been above $6.32, and the level has been drifting down, not up. https://en.macromicro.me/collections/27425/oil-spread/80621/aaa-daily-national-average-gasoline-prices - [2026-10-13] ULSD front-month was $4.74, up 2 cents on the day. It was $4.88 on Oct 8, and the 90-day high was $5.26. That leaves futures about 13% below the September peak. ULSD was also $4.50 on Oct 2, so wholesale sits about 24 cents above the Oct 2 level. The Oct 8 spike to $4.88 has already reversed. Retail at $6.28 against wholesale at $4.74 is a $1.54 spread. That is a wide spread by the standard of this series and leaves room for retail to compress if futures stay put. https://fueldataportal.com/data/ulsd-diesel-futures - [2026-10-13] A Yahoo Finance chart-of-the-day (AAA data) had diesel at $6.25 on Monday, about 10 cents below a month earlier. A month-over-month decline contradicts the AAA month-ago figure of $6.16 or $6.20. The two sources disagree, so the AAA-versus-aggregator gap is real and the resolution source matters. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/gas-prices-on-track-to-break-record-for-most-days-above-4-a-gallon-chart-of-the-day-172053108.html - [2026-10-13] Trump announced an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine on Oct 11. Ukraine has said it would halt refinery strikes if Russia stops its energy attacks. Zelenskyy said he was still waiting for details, and Russia was accused of striking a power plant after the truce announcement. Russian refineries are running at about 60% of capacity. A holding truce would allow Russian diesel exports to recover. https://trtworld.com/article/377d8ea29c1b - [2026-10-09] Trump said he will not impose a diesel export ban. The G7 announced a 100M-barrel release with a "frontloaded substantial diesel release within the first 20 days". The 20-day window runs through roughly late October, so physical diesel arrives in the weeks before the Oct 31 resolution. https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/6126914-g7-releases-massive-fuel-stock/ - [2026-10-09] Treasury waived sanctions on Russian diesel through April 2027 under a general license. Trump's schedule is 300k tons immediately and 500k tons in November, with a further 3 million tons conditional. This is a legal and logistical channel that did not exist in September. Most of it arrives after Oct 31, but the announcement affects futures positioning. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/09/trump-putin-russian-diesel-us-global-markets.html - [2026-10-06] Kalshi's Election Day (Nov 3) ladder was reported with traders positioned for ≤$6.20. A ladder snapshot on Kalshi's oil page had "above $6.20" at 59% and "above $6.00" at 68% for Election Day. That page's age tag says 291 days, so the snapshot may be stale and unreliable. Market consensus there was that prices sit near $6.2. A strike at $6.30 sits above that level. https://kalshi.com/category/economics/oil-and-energy - [2026-10-13] Technical point favoring NO: the contract is a strict "above $6.30" on a single day. Ties and exactly $6.30 do not count. On a single-day snapshot, with the AAA average at about $6.27, any resolution needs a net rise of more than 2 cents in 18 days. The September rally was driven by the physical shortage and the Houthi/Saudi escalation, and that pushed retail from $5.85 on Sept 4 to $6.53 on Sept 22. Reversing that now needs a new shock, not just inertia. https://www.rigzone.com/news/gasbuddy_flags_fragile_calm_at_the_pump-13-oct-2026-184834-article - [2026-10-13] Counterweight on the NO side: the same-day trading dips ("Diesel prices tomorrow" at $6.300 and $6.305) in Kalshi's own listing show the daily contracts near-coin-flip at that strike. The page tag says 291 days, so I would not treat it as current. https://kalshi.com/category/economics/oil-and-energy BOTTOM LINE: The NO case rests on inertia, with retail already at or just below $6.30 for several days and a 10–13% wholesale retrace. The G7 diesel release, the Russian general license and the Russia–Ukraine energy-ceasefire attempt all point to further softening before Oct 31. The strict ">" test and a resolution source that may sit lower (EIA's weekly average ran below AAA) add to that. The main risk to this case is a fresh Gulf/Houthi shock or a hurricane-hit refinery. NOT FOUND: Kalshi's rules page naming the source and timestamp for this contract. The AAA live page returned HTTP 403 on direct fetch, so I used the indexed snapshot. The EIA Oct 14 print. A ULSD forward curve for late October.