Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

The first leg has already resolved as a hike. The question now turns on whether the Fed also hikes on Oct 28 and Dec 9. Futures price October as a likely hold and December as a likely hike. If October holds, the outcome is "Other" under the rules. - [2026-09-16] The FOMC voted 12–0 to raise the target range by 25bp to 3.75–4.00%, so the Sept leg is a qualifying hike. The statement said "Inflation remains elevated." Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm - [2026-09-16] The Board raised interest on reserve balances to 3.90%, effective Sept 17. The Desk was directed to hold the funds rate in the 3.75–4.00% range. Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/monetary20260916a1.pdf - [2026-09-16/17] The SEP median shows the funds rate ending 2026 at about 4.1%, which implies one more hike. 16 of 18 participants expect at least one more hike this year, and 4 expect two. Source: https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/portfolio-insights/fixed-income/fixed-income-perspectives/fomc-statement-september-2026/ - [2026-09-16] Chair Warsh said inflation has been "too high ... for too long". Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html - [2026-09-30/10-01] The Aug PCE report was softer than expected: headline 3.4% y/y, core 3.0% against a 3.3% consensus. Sept payrolls rose only 29k, and unemployment rose to 4.2%. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/fed-rate-hike-odds-decline-after-september-jobs-report.html - [2026-10-02] After the jobs report, CME FedWatch showed a 17% chance of an October hike, down from about 36% a week earlier. Kalshi showed 18%. FedWatch showed December hike odds above 75%. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/fed-rate-hike-odds-decline-after-september-jobs-report.html - [2026-10-07] The NY Fed consumer survey's 1-year inflation expectation rose to 3.9%, the highest since May 2023. Markets still largely expect a hold in October. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/07/inflation-fears-on-the-rise-as-one-year-outlook-in-fed-survey-hits-highest-level-since-may-2023.html - [2026-10-08, reported 10-11] The Sept FOMC minutes said most officials see another hike as likely this year. Several said policy is too low to restrain the economy, or only mildly restrictive. Vice Chair Jefferson said the committee may need more time to reach its own judgment. Futures price a hold on Oct 28 and a hike in December. Source: https://abc7.com/story/fed-minutes-another-rate-hike-coming-year-combat-persistent-inflation/19929930/ - [2026-10-12] Cleveland Fed's Hammack, a voter, said a restrictive stance is appropriate and prefers small, quick adjustments. Reports read this as implying more hikes are possible. I could not open the page, so this is from the search snippet. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/12/beth-hammack-fed-inflation-policy.html - [2026-10-12] Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor (CME-based) showed about 80.5% for no change and 19.5% for a hike to 4.00–4.25% on Oct 28. Its analysis piece put October hike odds near 20%. Source: https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor - [~2026-10-03] Prediction markets priced a hike on Oct 28 at about 17%. The market-implied chance of a hike by Dec 9 was about 65%, and about 72% for any 2026 hike. These are other venues and strikes, and they may be stale. Source: https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/fed-decision-odds/ - [Scheduled] Remaining meetings are Oct 27–28 and Dec 8–9. Fed officials, including Barr, Paulson and Williams, have signalled further tightening. In earlier sessions Logan reportedly said "50 bps or more" was needed, and Musalem and others pushed back on urgency. Source: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/economy/article-us-fed-officials-see-rates-likely-rising-to-curb-high-inflation/ BOTTOM LINE: One of the three required hikes is done. The path to YES needs an October hike, which futures and prediction markets put at roughly 17–20% after the soft PCE and jobs data. It also needs a December hike, which is favored but not certain. The hawkish minutes and the Hammack speech are the main upside risks. The Sept CPI release and the Oct 28 decision are the key events still ahead. NOT FOUND: The current Sept CPI release date and consensus. The current FedWatch figures for a cumulative hike by December. Hammack's full text, since the page would not load. A direct reading of the Fed's openmarket.htm page, because the calendar page fetch returned only navigation.

- [2026-09-16] The September leg is done. The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the target range 25bp to 3.75–4.00%, which is a qualifying hike, so the market now depends on October and December. The Fed's own statement is https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm (fetched). - [2026-09-16] The Sept SEP median shows 4.1% at end-2026. Sixteen of 18 participants expect at least one more hike this year, and four see two more. The 2026 median was 3.6% in June. https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/portfolio-insights/fixed-income/fixed-income-perspectives/fomc-statement-september-2026/ - [2026-10-07] The FOMC minutes show most officials expect another hike this year, but give no timing. Next decisions are Oct 28 and Dec 9. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/07/fed-officials-see-another-hike-coming-but-no-sign-as-to-when-minutes-show.html (the render returned the headline and lede, not the full text). - [2026-10-02] October hike odds collapsed after a weak September jobs report (+29k) and a cooler August core PCE (3.0% vs 3.3% expected). CME FedWatch showed about 17% for an October hike, against about 36% a week earlier. Kalshi showed 18%, against almost 70% a week earlier. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/fed-rate-hike-odds-decline-after-september-jobs-report.html - [2026-10-12] Polymarket's October market: hike 16.5%, no change 83.5%. December: 25bp hike 74.5%, no change 22.5%. https://riotimesonline.com/global-economy-briefing-october-12-2026 - [2026-10-12] CME FedWatch shows about 80.5% for a hold in October. https://growbeansprout.com/tools/fedwatch. RateProbability shows about 16% for an October hike. https://rateprobability.com/fed - [2026-10-07] Kalshi's December market was 71.5% for a 25bp hike, against Polymarket's 74.5%. Hike-over-25bp is a few percent in both. https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/fed-rate-odds/ - [2026-10-12] Bank of America still forecasts hikes in both October and December. It says a pause in October is possible, with Dec and Mar hikes the likely path if so. Officials are reportedly leaning toward a quarterly pace. https://tribuneindia.com/news/25-basis-points/strong-us-growth-sticky-inflation-may-prompt-two-more-fed-rate-hikes-in-2026-bofa - [2026-10-07] Fed officials are split on October. Goolsbee and Logan are hawkish. Bowman and Williams see no urgent need to hike more this year. ING calls a December hike its base case and expects an October hold if September core CPI is about 0.2% m/m. The CPI release is Oct 14. https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-minutes-set-to-provide-some-insight-into-the-timing-of-next-rate-hikes-202610071400 - [2026-10-12] Brent is above $100 and inflation pressures persist. https://riotimesonline.com/global-economy-briefing-october-12-2026 - Base rate: consecutive hikes at three straight meetings occurred only in dense tightening cycles, such as 2022 and 2004–06. The Fed is now starting a cycle at a reported quarterly cadence, and the market prices an October hold at about 83%. I did not verify the historical frequencies in this session. - Rough chain from market prices: P(Oct hike) of about 16% times P(Dec hike given an Oct hike). Hawkish pricing implies that conditional is high, perhaps 70–90%. I am giving the arithmetic only; I am not giving a probability. BOTTOM LINE: The September hike is confirmed, so this contract resolves YES only if the Fed also hikes on Oct 28 (priced at about 16–18%) and again on Dec 9 (priced at about 72–75% unconditionally). The most likely single outcome is Hike–Pause–Hike, which resolves "Other". NOT FOUND: The Fed's full minutes text and the SEP table (JPMorgan and CNBC summaries only). A direct price for the three-meeting combination. A verified historical frequency of three-in-a-row hikes. The Oct 14 CPI result, which comes after today's date.

YES means: the Fed hikes the upper bound at all three meetings, on Sept 16, Oct 28 and Dec 9. The Sept 16 hike is already done. So YES now needs hikes on both Oct 28 and Dec 9. - [2026-10-12] **Hammack (a voter) wants more tightening, but her October vote is open.** She said rates need to rise to restrain demand. She also said she will go into Oct 27–28 with an open mind. Bloomberg says she "stopped short" of backing an October hike. She prefers small steps taken "relatively quickly". She sees inflation as broad-based, with trend inflation in the mid-to-high 2% range. She also reported business contacts describing a "thriving" economy. She, Kashkari and Logan all dissented for a hike in July, and all three vote in October. https://www.fxstreet.com/news/feds-hammack-sees-thriving-economy-backs-further-rate-hikes-202610122150 ; https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-hammack-says-smaller-frequent-165000640.html ; https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/fed-rate-decision-october-2026 - [2026-10-07] **The minutes give two reasons for a higher path.** "Many" participants cite risk-management insurance. "A number" see a higher path as needed in their modal outlook. "Several" call policy not restrictive or only mildly restrictive. The minutes name no October trigger and say each meeting is approached "with an open mind". The 2026 dot distribution moved from 6 of 18 at 4.125% or higher in June to 16 of 18 in September. 12 sit at one more hike and 4 at two more. At least 9 of the 11 voting submitters are above the current rate, even if all 7 non-voters are counted among the 16. https://www.stocktitan.net/articles/fed-minutes-september-2026-second-rate-hike - [2026-09-17] **Sell-side called an October hike after Sept 16.** Goldman added an October hike, saying officials could favour consecutive increases. BofA already had October and December. Morgan Stanley and Macquarie added March 2027 hikes. Goldman's reasoning was that policymakers want inflation back to 2% faster. https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/goldman-sachs-now-sees-fed-hiking-again-in-october-4904743 - [2026-09-22/29] **Markets once priced the YES path as likely.** On Sept 22, CME FedWatch gave hikes at both remaining meetings about 40%. By Sept 29, Forbes said markets were "firmly pricing" back-to-back hikes. The same view sat behind a roughly 70–75% October hike probability around Sept 25–29. That shows how fast October can reprice when data run hot. https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/09/22/markets-signal-fed-may-have-started-on-a-series-of-hikes/ ; https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/09/29/what-to-expect-from-interest-rates-for-the-rest-of-2026/ - [2026-10-01/02] **The October fade rested on two voices.** Williams said "no need for urgency", and Jefferson said the committee may need more time. Odds then fell from about 70% to about 25% in a week. Goolsbee, the same week, called hike and pause both "on the table". Kashkari, a hawk and a voter, said "I don't have a strong view" on timing, so he is not pre-committed to a hold. Logan, who is hawkish and a voter, said on Oct 1 that strong growth shows policy is "not restrictive". https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-may-time-next-interest-173209828.html ; https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/feds-goolsbee-says-rate-hike-172206037.html ; https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-officials-backed-vote-hike-193748797.html - [2026-10-14, due] **Sept CPI is the swing event.** Consensus is headline about 3.7% y/y (+0.6% m/m) and core +0.2% m/m (2.5% y/y). The Cleveland Fed nowcast has core at 0.20% m/m. Sources say a core print of 0.3% or higher "could revive talk" of an October hike. In August, core CPI printed 0.3% against 0.2% expected, and September-hike odds jumped from about 70% to about 90% within hours. Yahoo says a hot print "could push October hike odds back above 50%". https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/us-cpi-september-2026-scenarios-fed-october ; https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/october-rate-hike-odds-just-152521121.html - [2026-10-05/07] **Financial conditions and inflation expectations tilt hawkish.** The 10-year yield hit 5.31% on Oct 5, its highest since May 2002. The 30-year hit a 22-year high. Warsh said at his press conference that he would be "hard pressed" to call broad financial conditions restrictive, and he said the Committee widely shared that view. Staff estimated August core PCE at 3.2–3.4% under the old and new BEA methods, above the 3.0% print the colleagues cited. A few participants warned that the 3-month core PCE measure tends to understate inflation in the second half. That undercuts the "soft PCE" argument for a pause. https://www.stocktitan.net/articles/fed-minutes-september-2026-second-rate-hike - [2026-10-08] **Waller's guidance is ambiguous for YES.** He said more hikes are likely needed, but they "need not" come at back-to-back meetings. He also cited futures at about 85% for a December hike. That makes December the likely landing spot, and it leaves the hike path alive. The cost is that a Waller-style pause in October would make the contract "Other". https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/us-cpi-preview-september-2026-forecasts-and-the-core-cpi-outlook - [2026-10-09/12] **December is priced as likely.** CME-based December hike pricing was about 85% (Oct 12, TradingKey), against 75–81% in other readings. Polymarket's October hike was at 17% on Oct 12, and Polymarket's hold at 84%. If October hikes, the December conditional is plausibly high: 16 of 18 dots point to at least one more hike, and four are already at two. The tail risk to December is data: November CPI comes Dec 10, a day after the meeting. https://www.tradingkey.com/analysis/economic/indicators/262213230-us-september-cpi-outlook-inflation-us-stocks-dollar-gold-reaction-tradingkey ; https://rg.org/news/prediction-markets/polymarket-daily-fed-october-decision-cpi-bitcoin-90000-october-12-2026 - [2026-10-13] **The most likely YES path** has four prerequisites: 1. September core CPI prints at or above 0.3% m/m, or headline comes in well above 3.7% on broadening. 2. Oct 14–28 data and bond yields do not ease, and the labor market is not seen as weakening further after the +29k payrolls. 3. Hawks including Hammack, Logan and Kashkari, plus Barr and Cook, carry the vote, or Williams and Jefferson shift to "insurance" framing before the blackout starts. 4. Warsh's Oct 28 statement and press conference then signal that "removing a dose of accommodation" continues, and December follows. Brent above $100 and Strait of Hormuz energy risk back this path. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/fed-rate-decision-october-2026 ; https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/09/29/what-to-expect-from-interest-rates-for-the-rest-of-2026/ BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case is that one hike is done and 16 of 18 dots plus a hawkish voting bloc support more tightening. October is a data-dependent coin that turned on a single Williams/Jefferson message and could flip on a hot Oct 14 CPI. If October hikes, December is likely. The case remains a minority path against an October hold, which the market and the economists expect. NOT FOUND: The Oct 14 CPI result, which comes after today. Any current direct price or estimate for the Hike-Hike-Hike combination. Fed primary pages (the calendar and openmarket.htm) did not return usable text. The Hammack full speech text is from secondary summaries only.

YES means: the Fed raises the upper bound of the target range at all three meetings, Sept 16, Oct 28 and Dec 9. The Sept hike is done. YES now requires hikes on both Oct 28 and Dec 9. Any October hold, or any cut, resolves "Other". - [2026-10-08] Governor Waller, a hawk, said hikes "do not need to come at consecutive meetings." Reuters says he is the third top official in days to signal willingness to wait. Reuters also says officials' recent comments suggest the 3.75–4.00% range will be kept on Oct 27–28, with a hike likely in December. https://theglobeandmail.com/business/economy/article-us-fed-governor-christopher-waller-rate-path-october-meeting - [2026-09-29/10-01] Williams (NY Fed) said "no need for urgency" and saw "one further upward adjustment" late this year. Jefferson (Vice Chair) said colleagues "may need more time." Evercore ISI read the pair as authoritative: no back-to-back hike in October. Brokerages mostly expect one hike this year, in December. Hike odds fell from about 70% to about 25% within days. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-may-time-next-interest-173209828.html - [2026-10-01] Kashkari, a hawk and 2026 voter, said he has "no strong view" on October. He forecasts one more hike this year and one in 2027. That implies a slow cadence, with at most one more hike in 2026. Logan also gave no timing and flagged that higher term premiums could substitute for tightening. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-may-time-next-interest-173209828.html - [2026-10-12] Hammack, the most hawkish voter, "stopped short" of backing an October hike, per Bloomberg. She favours smaller, quicker moves and says she is open to adjusting the pace. This undercuts the colleagues' reading of her speech as pointing to October. CME FedWatch, per CNBC the same day, had a hold above 78% for October and about 88% for a December hike. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-hammack-says-smaller-frequent-165000640.html and https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/12/beth-hammack-fed-inflation-policy.html - [2026-10-13] Consensus for the Oct 14 September CPI is core +0.2% m/m (2.4–2.5% y/y). The headline jump to about 3.7% is energy-driven. MUFG says core must surprise on the upside to revive October hike bets. A core print of 0.2% or less would keep the Fed on hold until December. Even a hot print would have to overcome the signals from Williams and Jefferson. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/us-cpi-september-2026-scenarios-fed-october - [2026-10-13] Admiral Markets calls a "hawkish hold" in October the base case among economists and in market pricing. A Yahoo piece of Oct 3 notes the Fed has not hiked at an October meeting before a November midterm since 1990. That is a weak precedent, but the Oct 28 meeting falls one week before the Nov 3 elections. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/fed-rate-decision-october-2026 and https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/october-fomc-why-fed-pause-153500416.html - [2026-09-16 dot plot, via 2026-10-13 source] The distribution of end-2026 dots is 12 participants at 4.125% (one more hike), 2 at 3.875% (no more hikes) and 4 at 4.375% (two more). The median therefore implies a single further hike, and the modal path puts it in December. Only 4 of 18 expect two more hikes in 2026, which is what Oct plus Dec requires. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/fed-rate-decision-october-2026 - [2026-10-12] Polymarket's October market gives a hold 84% and a hike 17%, the same as the colleagues' figures. Together with the 16–19% on CME FedWatch and the 17% earlier, it shows the market already prices the combined path as unlikely. Both estimates are conditional on Oct 14 CPI, which has not yet printed. https://rg.org/news/prediction-markets/polymarket-daily-fed-october-decision-cpi-bitcoin-90000-october-12-2026 - [2026-10-02] The weak Sept payrolls (+29k vs 90k forecast, unemployment 4.2%) and the PCE miss undercut the case for acceleration. JPMorgan's Feroli said the wage slowdown shows the economy is not running so hot that an urgent hiking cycle is needed. https://finance.biggo.com/news/e8c5cc54-9723-4dec-bf47-65e5cba4035b - [2026-09-16 pattern] The Fed held for five straight meetings from Jan to Jul, including a 9–3 hold in July over three hawkish dissents. Its first hike came only in September, and under Warsh it gives no forward guidance. Status-quo inertia and a deliberate pace favour a hold on Oct 28, even among hawks. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/fed-rate-decision-october-2026 BOTTOM LINE: The No case rests mainly on October. Williams and Jefferson, the Fed's two most senior figures after Warsh, have effectively ruled out back-to-back hikes. Waller, Kashkari, Logan and Hammack all declined to back October timing, and the median dot implies one more 2026 hike, not two. Any October hold resolves "Other", and only an upside core CPI surprise on Oct 14 plus a reversal of leadership signals could change that. NOT FOUND: The Oct 14 CPI result, which comes after today. Any statement from Warsh on October timing, since he gives none. A source putting a price on the full Hike–Hike–Hike combination. The FedWatch figure for the cumulative path, though the October and December marginals are above.