Will California’s total number of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in 2026 be above 115,000?

- [2026-09-24] The seasonally adjusted (SA) FRED/Census series for California (CABPPRIVSA) now runs through August 2026. Monthly values: Jan 9,526; Feb 12,163; Mar 9,150; Apr 8,832; May 8,914; Jun 8,622; Jul 8,789; Aug 9,087. Summed, Jan–Aug is about 75,080 SA units, or about 9,385 a month. Annualised, that is about 112,600. Reaching 115,000 needs Sep–Dec to average about 9,980 a month, which is above every month since February. Computed from the FRED table. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/CABPPRIVSA.txt - [2026-09-24] The FRED SA series is a St. Louis Fed seasonal adjustment of the Census data. It is not the resolution figure, which is the Census unadjusted calendar-year total, so the SA sum is only a proxy. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CABPPRIVSA - [2026-10-13] A Census-derived aggregator, pumsdata, shows 8,285 units permitted in California in July 2026 (about 11% above July 2025). The trailing-12-month total is 110,772. In July, 4,509 units were single-family and 3,144 were in buildings of 5+ units. It is a third-party site, not the Census primary page. https://pumsdata.com/data/permits/california - [2026-07 snapshot] The same aggregator showed June 2026 at 10,013 units and a trailing-12-month total of 109,950. The trailing total therefore rose by about 800 in a month, from 109,950 to 110,772. https://pumsdata.com/data/permits/california - [2026-03-24] FRED's older annual SA sums were 102,009 for 2025, 100,606 for 2024, 109,375 for 2023 and 112,875 for 2022. Only 2022 would have exceeded 115,000. These sums may predate the May 2026 benchmark. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JXup - [2026-05-14] Census released final annual 2025 building permit estimates, including state-level data, on this date. This is the type of release that will resolve the contract for 2026. I did not retrieve California's official 2025 total. https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/index.html - [2026-09-17] National permits in August 2026 were 1,394,000 SAAR, down 2.7% from July's revised 1,433,000 and up 3.5% from August 2025. Single-family was 878,000. National permits are running above 2025 levels, so national conditions are no worse than last year. https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/current/index.html - [2026-10-20 and 2026-10-27] Scheduled releases: the September national New Residential Construction report on Oct 20, and revised state-level permits on Oct 27. Further dates are Nov 18 (October data) and Dec 17 (November data). The December 2026 state data will not come out until early 2027, probably after the Jan 27, 2027 close. The 2026 annual state release (2025's came May 14, 2026) would likely come in spring 2027. Check whether it falls inside the contract window. https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/schedule.html - [2026-02 to 2026-04] The Census release schedule slipped earlier in 2026. The Feb and Mar 2026 data were both delayed to Apr 29, and the Oct 2025 data came out in Jan 2026. Further delays are possible. https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/announcements.html - [2026-07-01] SB 79 (transit upzoning) took effect July 1, 2026 in eight counties. AB 253 and AB 1308 (permit shot-clocks) took effect in late 2025 and on Jan 1, 2026. These may lift permits, but July and August SA permits show no clear surge. https://www.hansonbridgett.com/publications/251230_8187_construction-laws-2026 - [2026-10-04] State HCD Annual Progress Report data (a different dataset, not Census) puts 2025 California permitting at about 120,000 units, including ADUs. Census totals run lower, so this is not comparable to the 115,000 threshold. https://hyreadu.com/research/california-adu-annual-report/ BOTTOM LINE: Through August 2026, California is on pace for roughly 111,000–113,000 units (SA proxy), a little below 115,000. Reaching the threshold would take a clear acceleration in the last four months, to about 10,000 a month, which hasn't happened since February. The resolution release timing is also uncertain relative to the Jan 27, 2027 close. NOT FOUND: Census official unadjusted California year-to-date total through August 2026; California's official final 2025 Census total; the exact release date of the full-year 2026 state-level data; any September 2026 California figure (not yet released).

- [2026-09-24] Census/FRED not-seasonally-adjusted California permits for 2026 are Jan 8,130; Feb 11,157; Mar 8,711; Apr 9,015; May 10,196; Jun 10,013; Jul 8,285; Aug 9,649. That sums to about 75,156 for Jan–Aug (my arithmetic). Reaching more than 115,000 needs about 39,850 in Sep–Dec, or about 9,960 a month. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/CABPPRIV - [2026-09-24] The same FRED series gives Jan–Aug 2025 at about 65,781 and the full year 2025 at about 102,160 (my sum of the monthly values). 2026 year-to-date is therefore about +14% year on year. Sep–Dec 2025 was about 36,380. Hitting 115,000 needs Sep–Dec 2026 up about 9.5% on a year earlier, and 2025 itself was a post-2014 low. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/CABPPRIV - [2026-09-24] Outside-view scenarios, my arithmetic on the monthly data. The Mar–Aug 2026 average is about 9,310 a month, and four months at that pace gives a full year near 112,400. Repeating Sep–Dec 2025 gives about 111,500. A +14% year-on-year pace gives about 116,500 (about +14% on Sep–Dec 2025). The threshold sits slightly above the trend-based central estimate. Revisions to the monthly figures are a risk either way. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/CABPPRIV - [2026-09-24] Annual California totals from FRED (seasonally adjusted sums) are 2022 about 112,875, 2023 about 109,375, 2024 about 100,606 and 2025 about 102,009. No year since 2022 has topped 115,000 on this series. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JXup - [2026-09-?? (June/July data)] PUMSdata, which re-publishes Census Building Permits Survey data, shows a trailing 12-month total of 109,950 through Jun 2026 and 110,772 through Jul 2026. The last-12-month figure is rising, but it is still about 4,200 below 115,000. Jul 2026 was +11% year on year. https://pumsdata.com/data/permits/california - [2026-08-17] NAHB: through June 2026, California single-family permits were flat year on year, while California multifamily permits were up 26.1%. Earlier in the year multifamily was up 119% (Jan), 105% (Q1) and 57% (Jan–Apr). The multifamily surge is fading as the year goes on, which suggests the year-on-year gain may keep narrowing. https://www.lbmjournal.com/industry-news/data/press-release/15832622/national-association-of-home-builders-singlefamily-permitting-declines-in-contrast-to-multifamily - [2026-09-17] National backdrop: US permits in August 2026 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,394,000 (revised to 1,403,000). That is 2.7% below July but 3.5% above August 2025. Western region permits rose 2.3% in August. The year-to-date national figure is about -0.1%. https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/current/index.html - [2026-09-16] Zillow, via CRE Daily: US permits are 19.2% below the pre-pandemic trend, and annual permits have declined for 42 months. San Jose permits roughly doubled year on year (7,866 vs 3,510 in the year to May 2026). Single-family weakness comes from high mortgage rates and affordability. https://www.credaily.com/briefs/housing-permits-fall-further-below-pre-pandemic-trend/ - [2026-05-14] Census schedule: the annual 2025 Building Permits Survey data (state level) came out on 14 May 2026. Monthly state-level revised permits come out on the 17th workday of each month; the September data is due 27 Oct 2026 and the November data on 23 Dec 2026. State-level data for the complete year 2026 would be expected around late January to May 2027. The question's window closes on 27 Jan 2027, so timing of the first full-year state release is a risk. I could not confirm the exact date. https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/schedule.html - [2026-09 (HCD data)] California HCD Annual Progress Report data, a different series, shows 120,455 units permitted in 2025 against 139,691 in 2022, including ADUs. HCD counts differ from Census counts, and the contract uses Census. Treat the HCD figures as non-comparable. https://hyreadu.com/research/california-adu-annual-report/ - [2026-07] Early 2026 single-family weakness was visible in California-specific commentary, with SFR starts down about 8% as of March (firsttuesday, secondary). I found no quantitative professional forecast for California's 2026 permit total. https://jmconstruction.com/california-construction-sector-newsletter-jm-construction-31/ BOTTOM LINE: The Jan–Aug 2026 total is about 75,200, up roughly 14% on 2025, and a continuing trend gives about 111,000–113,000 for the year. That is somewhat below 115,000. YES needs Sep–Dec to run about 9–10% above last year's pace, which is possible but above the recent monthly average. The calendar-year total has not exceeded 115,000 since before 2022. NOT FOUND: any published forecast or expert estimate of California's 2026 Census permit total; the exact release date of the first full-year 2026 state-level data; Census's own annual 2025 California figure (the FRED sums were used instead); the September 2026 California figure.

YES means: Census's first state-level release with complete Jan–Dec 2026 data shows California's unadjusted new privately owned housing units authorized above 115,000. - [2026-09-24] The FRED/Census not-seasonally-adjusted data give Sep–Dec 2025 monthly values of 9,275, 8,860, 7,863 and 10,384, which sum to 36,382. With Jan–Aug 2026 at 75,156 (a colleague's sum), YES needs about 39,850 in Sep–Dec 2026, which is +9.5% on a year earlier. I confirmed the monthly values on the fetched table. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/CABPPRIV - [2026-09-24] Year-on-year growth was +9% in May (10,196 vs 9,346), +2.7% in Jun (10,013 vs 9,751), +11% in Jul (8,285 vs 7,463) and +8.6% in Aug (9,649 vs 8,883). The Jul–Aug average gain is about +10%, right at the +9.5% required. The Jun figure is the weak month. If the Jul–Aug pace holds, 2026 lands at about 115,000. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/CABPPRIV - [2026-09-24] The comparison base is soft. Oct 2025 (8,860) and Nov 2025 (7,863) were below Oct 2023 (8,338, similar) and Nov 2023 (9,757). Sep 2025 was 9,275. The YES path needs only about 9,960 a month on average. Unadjusted Dec is seasonally strong (10,384 in 2025, 11,523 in 2019, 12,584 in 2020), and Dec 2025 alone was above that average. A December near 11,000 would cut the needed Sep–Nov average to about 9,600. Each of the 2026 months Feb, May, Jun and Aug was at or above 9,600. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/CABPPRIV - [2026-10-13] The Census-derived Jul 2026 breakdown (fetched) shows single-family at 4,509 units. That is 54% of the month's total, and 3,144 units were in 5+ unit buildings. Multifamily is lumpy. LAO notes in earlier years that Los Angeles County alone swings by over 1,000 units month to month. One or two big Los Angeles or San Jose projects in Q4 could add the needed 1,000–2,000 units. The trailing 12-month total of 110,772 is rising, and the next trailing figures will drop out low Aug–Dec 2025 months. https://pumsdata.com/data/permits/california - [2026-10-13] The pumsdata page shows San Jose with 4,891 units over the trailing 12 months. The Zillow figures from the colleague report show San Jose roughly doubled year on year. Los Angeles city has 17,744 and San Diego 6,010. Large-city multifamily pipelines are driving the year-on-year gain while single-family is flat. A continuing pipeline of approvals supports multifamily at least holding its level. https://pumsdata.com/data/permits/california - [2026-09-17] The national August permit rate of 1,394,000 was +3.5% year on year and the Western region rose 2.3% in August. The national YTD table (fetched search result) shows the West at 463.3k units against 865.2k nationally in 2026 YTD. The national backdrop is stable, not deteriorating. https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf - [2026-07-01] SB 79 became operative on July 1, 2026, in eight counties. That covers the large Los Angeles, San Diego, Santa Clara, Alameda, Orange and Sacramento markets. Los Angeles has delayed full implementation to about 2030 (an ADU-industry source, so treat it as secondary). Other jurisdictions are not delaying. Permits for SB 79 projects need design and entitlement lead time, so any lift would show up in Q4 at the earliest. https://cali-adu.com/blog/sb-79-los-angeles-explained/ - [2026-10-12] Mortgage rates are the main headwind to the single-family side. Freddie Mac's 30-year rate was 7.40% on Oct 8, up from 6.34% a year earlier and its seventh straight weekly rise. Single-family permits (about 54% of California units) are therefore unlikely to accelerate. YES needs multifamily and the December seasonal bump to carry the gain. https://themortgagereports.com/32667/mortgage-rates-forecast-fha-va-usda-conventional - [2026-05-14] Census's schedule says annual 2025 data came out on May 14, 2026, with state, county and place levels. A full-year 2026 release before the Jan 27, 2027 close is not confirmed. The question's rules do not name a deadline other than trading close. A YES path therefore also needs the release to arrive in time, or the market to be settled on later data. https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/schedule.html BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is Sep–Dec 2026 running about 9.5% above Sep–Dec 2025, which the Jul–Aug 2026 gains (+11%, +8.6%) and a seasonally strong December would deliver. It rests on lumpy multifamily approvals offsetting flat single-family permitting, and it works only if the year-end data are published within the contract window. NOT FOUND: Census's official California unadjusted YTD total through Aug 2026; the exact release date of the 2026 full-year state data; any Sep 2026 California figure; any published forecast of California's 2026 permit total.

YES means: California's calendar-year 2026 total of new privately owned housing units authorized by building permits, in the first Census state-level release with complete Jan–Dec 2026 data, is above 115,000. - [2026-10-13] Release-timing technicality. Census lists the December 2026 revised-permits release, the first with state-level data for the full year, for January 27, 2027. That is the same day trading closes. The schedule page says releases are "usually (but not always)" on the listed workday. Census already slipped the Feb and Mar 2026 releases to Apr 29. A slip past the close, or a release after the close, means no qualifying release inside the window. The page also says annual data arrive on the first workday of May, which conflicts with the May 14 date used for 2025. The resolution wording depends on which release counts, and the contract's cutoff could favour NO. https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/schedule.html - [2026-09-24] Sep–Dec 2025 unadjusted months were 9,275, 8,860, 7,863 and 10,384, summing to 36,382. The 115,000 line needs about 39,850 in Sep–Dec 2026, which is +9.5% year on year. Q4 2025 was not weak. December 2025's 10,384 was a high comparison base. Meeting the bar needs a December of about 11,000 or more, or a broad lift in every month. Aug 2026 was 9,649, which is +8.6% on Aug 2025's 8,883, and that is already below the +9.5% needed. Computed from the FRED table. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/CABPPRIV - [2026-09-24] The year-on-year gain is shrinking. Jan–Aug 2026 was up about 14%, but the months with big gains are early. Feb 2026 was +54% (11,157 vs 7,247) and Jan was +22%. Jun–Aug 2026 combined is 27,947 against 25,097 in 2025, which is +11.4%. Counting Jul–Aug alone, the gain is +9.8% (17,934 vs 16,346). The base effect from the weak early-2025 months is gone, so the growth rate is converging on the roughly 9–10% required. That leaves little margin. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/CABPPRIV - [2026-09 (NAHB, through July)] The multifamily surge is fading: California multifamily permits were up 119% in January, 105% in Q1, 57% through April, 47.9% through May and 26.1% through June. The through-July figure was +25.9%. Single-family in California was flat through June, with the West down 6.1% through July. Multifamily is the only driver, and it is decelerating. Single-family has no momentum to make up a shortfall. https://eyeonhousing.org/2026/09/single-family-permitting-declines-through-july-as-multifamily-activity-remains-stronger/ - [2026-08 (NAHB, through June)] The West single-family decline was 9.3% in Q1, 9.4% through May and 6.8% through June. Elevated mortgage rates and affordability constraints are cited as the cause. No source I found shows a catalyst for a single-family rebound in Q4. https://eyeonhousing.org/2026/08/single-family-permitting-declines-through-june-as-multifamily-activity-remains-stronger/ - [2026-09-17] Census says the August 2026 national permit rate fell below July's. The national year-to-date total is roughly flat. A national slowdown, together with the California multifamily slowdown, leaves no sign of the roughly 10,000 a month needed in the final four months. Monthly values since Feb 2026 above 10,000 are only May (10,196) and Jun (10,013). https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf - [2026-09-24] Status-quo arithmetic: Jan–Aug 2026 is 75,156 on the FRED unadjusted series. Repeating Sep–Dec 2025 gives about 111,500, so the total stays under 115,000 unless Q4 outgrows 2025 by nearly 10%. The last 12 months of data (Sep 2025–Aug 2026) sum to about 111,900. That is the figure to beat, and it is about 3,100 below the line. Computed from the FRED table. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/CABPPRIV - [2026-10-13] The 2025 base is itself revised. The FRED unadjusted 2025 months sum to about 102,160, and the through-June trailing total of 109,950 sits near the 2022–23 range. No year since 2022 exceeded 115,000. The series peaks in months with big multifamily batches, such as 13,326 in Jun 2023, but 2026 has had no comparable spike. The strongest 2026 month so far is Feb at 11,157. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/CABPPRIV - [2026-10-13] SB 79 took effect July 1 (per the earlier report), but July 2026 permits were 8,285, the second-lowest month of the year. Jul 2025 was 7,463, so July was +11% year on year, which is no step-change. July–August data therefore show no visible policy surge. Permitting responses to upzoning usually lag by months, and entitlement and financing delay applications. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/CABPPRIV BOTTOM LINE: The best NO case is that trend growth is converging on about +9–10% year on year, which is what YES needs, and the multifamily boost is decelerating while single-family is flat. The trend-based total is about 111,000–113,000. A shortfall of about 2,000–4,000 units would need an unusually strong Q4 to close. The January 27 release date coincides with the close, so there is also a technical chance that no qualifying release lands in the window. NOT FOUND: Any Census statement confirming a full-year 2026 state release before Jan 27, 2027. Official unadjusted California figures for September 2026. Any forecast of a Q4 California permit surge. The exact date of the first release with full-year state data.