Will New Hampshire’s maple syrup production in 2027 be above 140,000 gallons?

- [2026-06 (Crop Production, June 2026)] NASS's 2026 NH maple estimate is 147,000 gallons, from 480,000 taps at 0.307 gal/tap. That is down from 152,000 in 2025 and 149,000 in 2024. The 2026 tap count (480k) is the lowest of the three years. https://northamericanmaple.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/US_Maple_Crop_2026.pdf - [2026-06] NH acreage in the same report is 12,100 for 2026, up from 11,500 in 2025 and 11,200 in 2024. Taps fell from 520k to 480k, but yield per tap rose. The June 2026 report says 2026 price and value will be published in June 2027. https://northamericanmaple.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/US_Maple_Crop_2026.pdf - [2026-10-13] The NASS Quick Stats state overview, pulled today, still shows the 2025 NH figure of 152,000 gallons (0.292 gal/tap, $50.1/gal, $7.615M). No 2027 data exists yet. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Quick_Stats/Ag_Overview/stateOverview.php?state=new+hampshire - [2024-2026 history] NH annual production was 172k in 2022, 148k in 2023, 149k in 2024, 152k in 2025 and 147k in 2026. All of the last five annual estimates are above 140k. 2022 and 2023 come from the NASS Northeast 2024 release. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/New_England_includes/Publications/Current_News_Release/2024/Northeast-2024-Maple-Syrup.pdf - [2026-03-16] The 2026 season started late after a cold, snowy winter. Producers reported being about two weeks behind. The 2026 NASS estimate still came in at 147k. https://www.nhpr.org/nh-news/2026-03-16/maple-syrup-producers-hope-temps-to-hold-after-slow-start-to-season - [2026-04-08] A Granite Post summary called the 2026 season "unpredictable, and a little behind schedule", neither clearly good nor bad. https://granitepostnews.com/2026/04/08/new-hampshires-2026-maple-season/ - [2025 survey notice] NASS runs an annual Maple Syrup Inquiry, with a voluntary survey of about 1,800 Northeast producers. Results are published in the June Crop Production report (2025: June 12) and in Quick Stats. The 2027 figure should therefore come out around mid-June 2027, before the 2027-06-30 close. I did not find a confirmed 2027 date. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/New_England_includes/Publications/Current_News_Release/2025/2025-Maple-Syrup-Survey.pdf - [2026-10-13] The 2027 sugaring season (Feb–April 2027) has not started, so there are no 2027 tap counts, weather outcomes or producer reports. Nothing scheduled before the close affects the figure except the June 2027 NASS release. - [2026-09 to 2026-10] Aggregator sites (getluckysap, worldpopulationreview) repeat NH 2026 = 147k. They add no new information. https://getluckysap.com/maple-syrup-production BOTTOM LINE: The most recent NASS NH figure is 147,000 gallons for 2026, and 2022–2026 all landed above 140,000. The 140k threshold is only about 5% below the latest value, and the tap count is drifting down (520k to 480k). The 2027 outcome depends on tap counts and spring weather, which are not yet known. NOT FOUND: The official June 2027 NASS release date. Any 2027 NH tap count or season forecast. Any revision to the 2026 NH figure. Any NH-specific post-season production commentary from the NH Maple Producers Association.

- [2026-09-23] NASS Quick Stats (state overview, pulled 2026-09-23) puts New Hampshire's 2025 maple syrup crop at 152,000 gallons. That came from 0.292 gallons per tap, at $50.1 per gallon, worth $7.615M. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Quick_Stats/Ag_Overview/stateOverview.php?state=new+hampshire - [2026-10-13] A secondary aggregator, getluckysap.com, reports NASS's 2026 NH crop as 147,000 gallons, down 3% from 2025. It lists 480,000 taps at 0.307 gallons per tap. I could not open the page to confirm it, and I found no primary NASS 2026 release. worldpopulationreview.com also shows NH 2026 at 147K. https://getluckysap.com/maple-syrup-production - [2024-06-12] NASS Northeast report gives NH production of 172k (2022), 148k (2023) and 149k (2024). Taps were 560k, 490k and 520k. Yield per tap was 0.308, 0.303 and 0.286. The 2022 and 2023 figures are revised up from the first estimates of about 167k and 139k. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/New_England_includes/Publications/Current_News_Release/2024/Northeast-2024-Maple-Syrup.pdf - [2025-xx-xx] First-release NH figures from the June NASS reports: 148k (2019), 154k (2020), 127k (2021), 154k (2022 as listed on this site), 139k (2023). Only 2021 and the initial 2023 estimate were below 140k, and 2021 was a bad-weather year. https://www.maplesyrupfarms.org/maple-syrup-production-facts.php - [2018-06-13] NH was 163k in 2018, up 6%. 2016 was 169k (per NH Business Review, which also reported 167k for 2022). The 2010 level was about 87k, so there has been a structural step up since then. https://agriculture.vermont.gov/sites/agriculture/files/documents/AgDevReports/Maple%20Syrup%20Market%20Research%20Report.pdf and https://www.nhbr.com/nh-maple-syrup-production-highest-since-2016/ - Reference class, using the figures above: over 2016–2026, about 9 of 11 NH annual estimates were above 140k. Exceptions are 2021 (127k) and 2023's first estimate (139k, later revised to 148k). The last three or four years (149k, 152k, 147k) sit 5–12k above the threshold. Year-to-year swings of 10–30% have happened (2021→2022 was +31%), mostly from weather and yield per tap rather than tap count. - [2026-03-16] 2026 NH season was delayed by a long cold winter, which NHPR reported on 2026-03-16. Producers warned that early heat could shorten the season. Even so, the preliminary 2026 estimate (secondary source) is still 147k. https://www.nhpr.org/nh-news/2026-03-16/maple-syrup-producers-hope-temps-to-hold-after-slow-start-to-season - [2026-xx-xx] Farm Credit East's 2026 outlook says US output was flat for two years. It reports that larger producers plan to expand over three years, and that producer sentiment is "mixed." NH tap counts have been flat to falling (560k in 2022, 490k in 2023, 520k in 2024, about 480k in 2026). https://www.farmcrediteast.com/en/resources/Industry-Trends-and-Outlooks/Reports/2601KEP_MapleIndustryOutlook - [2026-xx-xx] UVM Extension confirms the 2026 US crop was 5.877M gallons, with Vermont at 3.091M. That is consistent with NASS having published 2026 data, which the NH 147k figure comes from. https://www.uvm.edu/extension/maple-statistics - Timing: NASS publishes the annual state maple estimate in its June Crop Production report (for example, 2024 was released 2024-06-12). The 2027 figure should therefore land around June 2027, before the 2027-06-30 close. NASS revises prior-year figures later, but the question concerns the 2027 estimate as first reported. Whether Kalshi uses the first print or a later Quick Stats value is not stated in the rules provided. NASS has been uneven in surveying some states, but NH has been surveyed every year. https://www.maplesyrupfarms.org/maple-syrup-production-facts.php - No external forecasts, polls or expert estimates of the 2027 NH crop exist yet. The 2027 season (February–April 2027) has not begun. BOTTOM LINE: The outside view favours Yes. NH has exceeded 140k in most recent years, and the last three estimates were 147–152k, but the margin is only about 5–8% above the threshold. Weather-driven yield swings and a flat or shrinking tap count make a sub-140k year plausible, as in 2021 and the first 2023 estimate. NOT FOUND: a primary NASS 2026 NH release (I only saw it via aggregators), 2027 season forecasts, NH-specific tap-count projections, and a full primary 2016–2018 NH series.

YES means: USDA NASS's first-reported 2027 New Hampshire maple syrup production (Maple Syrup → Production → Gallons) is above 140,000 gallons, i.e. 140,001 or more. - [2026-03-23] The bulk price for the 2026 crop rose 20 cents to $2.60/lb at Bascom, the largest US bulk buyer, which cited strong demand. Bascom is based in Alstead, NH. It said the 2025 crop was largely sold out by January, and that worldwide demand is growing about 8% a year. Strong demand and a sold-out market give NH producers a reason to hold or add taps for 2027. https://www.themaplenews.com/stories/headlines/13/all/ - [2026-02-10] Farm Credit East, summarising a UVM Extension webinar, said US production and tap counts grew in 2025, "continuing the long-term growth trend". It also said direct-to-consumer sales grew 8–10% in person and large-volume channels grew 7–10%. The same note says expansion by large producers could add supply. https://www.farmcrediteast.com/en/resources/todays-harvest-Blog/260210MapleIndustryKeyTrends - [2026-06] The NASS table shows NH yield per tap rising for three straight years: 0.286, 0.292, 0.307. That held in a late, cold 2026 season. The 2026 yield was already near the 2022–23 levels of about 0.303–0.308 (per the 2024 NASS release). The 480k-tap year therefore still produced 147k. If 2027 taps recover to the 2024–25 level of 520k, a yield of only 0.27 gal/tap would give about 140k. That yield is below every NH yield in the 2022–26 series. https://northamericanmaple.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/US_Maple_Crop_2026.pdf - [2026-06] Break-even arithmetic: 140,000 gallons needs 0.292 gal/tap on 480k taps, which equals the 2025 yield. On 520k taps it needs 0.269. The 2026 acreage figure (12,100) is the highest of the three years, so the tappable base is not shrinking. The tap count looks like a survey-sample swing: 490k, then 520k, 520k, then 480k. https://northamericanmaple.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/US_Maple_Crop_2026.pdf - [2026-03-06] Producers pointed to yield technology. A Valley News piece quoted an NH sugarmaker who said check-valve taps raised his production about 25%. It said other producers were also seeing higher yields. Gains from technology are a mechanism for yield per tap to hold up in 2027. https://vnews.com/2026/03/06/maple-sugaring-season-looks-promising-in-twin-states/ (snippet only; page not fetched in full) - [2026-02-09] UVM Proctor researchers explained that a prolonged cold winter delays sap flow because the trees' thermal mass stays frozen. This is the reason the delayed 2026 start did not cut the crop much; cold and late is not the same as poor. https://www.themaplenews.com/stories/headlines/13/all/ - [2026-09-29] The Maple News reported that Canadian syrup is not covered by the US import ban that took effect on 29 September, per IMSI. A trade shock that would cut demand and discourage expansion is therefore not in evidence. https://www.themaplenews.com/stories/headlines/13/all/ - [2026-01 to 2026-02] A fall-2025 producer survey cited by Farm Credit East found 60% of producers with 10,000+ taps expect to expand by up to 20% over three years. More than 55% of operators with 5,000–9,999 taps have similar plans. Larger NH operations are the main source of NH gallons. The outlook also calls producer sentiment "mixed". https://www.farmcrediteast.com/en/resources/Industry-Trends-and-Outlooks/Reports/2601KEP_MapleIndustryOutlook - [2026-03-20] Maine press coverage said tariffs on equipment such as stainless tanks are keeping equipment prices high and will limit expansion. That is a headwind for NH tap growth, not a tailwind. https://www.pressherald.com/2026/03/20/cold-weather-and-tariffs-squeeze-maines-maple-producers/ - [2026-10-13] The NH Maple Producers Association page lists a 2027 Maple Weekend and a 23 January 2027 annual meeting in Concord. The industry is organised and planning for 2027. No sign of contraction was found. https://nhmapleproducers.com/ Single most likely path to YES: NH taps stay at 480–520k (no major contraction). The 2027 season gives an average yield, at least about 0.29 gal/tap. That yield equals 2025's and sits below 2026's 0.307. This keeps the first NASS print at about 140–160k. The June 2027 Crop Production release (the 2025 release was June 12) is published before the 30 June close. The prerequisites are no season-wrecking weather, such as an early warm-up or a warm winter with a short season, and no large fall in the survey's tap estimate. BOTTOM LINE: The case for YES is that 2027 only has to match about 95% of 2026 output. Demand is strong, bulk prices are rising, yields have been rising, and the first-print values from 2024 to 2026 were 147–152k. A sub-140k result mainly needs a 2021-type weather year or a further sharp drop in the surveyed taps. NOT FOUND: Any 2027 tap-count or season data (the season has not started). A confirmed June 2027 NASS release date. NH-specific 2027 expansion figures. Any NH-specific post-season production commentary from the NH Maple Producers Association.

YES means: NASS's reported 2027 New Hampshire maple syrup production (Maple Syrup → Production → Gallons) is above 140,000 gallons. This report argues only the NO side. - [2026-06] NH 2026 yield of 0.307 gal/tap looks high relative to NH's own history. It is above 2024 (0.286) and 2025 (0.292). That 2026 yield came from a weather-disrupted season (late start, a cold winter that Vermont also had). To clear 140k on 480k taps, NH needs only 0.292 gal/tap, which is the 2025 yield. If taps fall to 450k, the needed yield is 0.311, above any of the last three years. The 2026 figure was propped up by yield, not tap growth. https://northamericanmaple.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/US_Maple_Crop_2026.pdf - [2026-06] NH taps fell to 480k, down 8% from the flat 520k of 2024 and 2025. Acreage rose to 12,100, so the fall in taps is not an acreage fall. NH is the only top-7 state with taps cut by 40k. If that drift continues, as in 2023 (490k), 140k would need yield of 0.29 or more at 480k taps. https://northamericanmaple.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/US_Maple_Crop_2026.pdf - [2026-06] NH's production of 147k in 2026 is 7k above 140k, which is about 4.8% of production. Yield per tap in NH has moved ±3–6% between recent years (0.286→0.292→0.307). Over 2022→2023 the change was 172k→148k (−14%). A 5% drop from 2026 produces exactly 140k. https://northamericanmaple.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/US_Maple_Crop_2026.pdf - [2026-06-11] Nationally, 2026 was a near-record crop (5.877M gal, 0.357 gal/tap, the highest in the series shown, versus 0.342 in each of the two prior years). Mean reversion in yield per tap after a strong national year is the main NO mechanism. The article also cites producer complaints that input costs are up versus syrup prices, which would weigh on tap counts. https://www.themaplenews.com/story/us-crop-a-near-record-59-million-gallons/566/ - [2026-06] NH's prior estimates are revised by NASS. 2022 and 2023 appear in the June 2024 release as 172k and 148k, but the first estimates were about 167k and 139k. A NH 2027 print could therefore come in lower than the later-revised figure. The question probably concerns the first print, but if Kalshi settles on the first print, any 2027 first estimate will not benefit from the later upward revisions seen in 2023. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/New_England_includes/Publications/Current_News_Release/2024/Northeast-2024-Maple-Syrup.pdf - [2021-07-05] NH's last sub-140k year, 2021 (127k), came from weather. Reports then blamed drought the prior year, reported by NH Business Review on 2021-06-29. The drought risk is present now: the Valley News said on 2026-03-06 that the Twin States had severe or extreme drought in summer 2025. Producers there thought the wet spring offset it. Lagged drought effects are a known NH downside mechanism, and 2026 summer conditions were not checked. https://moderator.droughtreporter.unl.edu/RSSfeed/ImpactView/56380 - [2026-03-06] Producers quoted by Valley News say yields depend on the weather during the season and are hard to predict ahead of time. This is a single-season outcome with about 3–4 months of sugaring between the Feb start and mid-April finish, and no 2027 weather data exist. The 2026 NH season was late and short, and NH still posted 147k, so NH's 2026 season does not look like a bad weather year. Another warm spring that ends the run early would be a downside risk. https://vnews.com/2026/03/06/maple-sugaring-season-hopeful/ - [2026-04-03] Harding Hill Farm (NH) described a short, intense 2026 season with little to no freeze on too many nights by week five, and sap chemistry about to turn. This is a sign of warm-spell vulnerability late in the season, consistent with a short NH season. https://www.hardinghillfarm.com/blog - [2026-06] Survey-based noise is a further NO risk. NASS's survey is voluntary and covers about 1,800 Northeast producers (2025 notice), and NH is a small state (2.5% of US output). A sample-based state estimate of about 147k can move a few percent from response patterns alone. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/New_England_includes/Publications/Current_News_Release/2025/2025-Maple-Syrup-Survey.pdf - [2026-10-13] Timing risk is minor but not zero. The 2026 release said price and value for 2026 will be published in the June 2027 Crop Production, which confirms the June 2027 cycle. No 2027 release date is published. If NASS delays or discontinues the maple release (cuts to NASS programs have happened), nothing would be reported and the market would not resolve Yes. I found no announcement of such a cut. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/crop-production BOTTOM LINE: The best NO case is thin: 2026's 147k is only about 5% above the line, tap counts fell 8% to the lowest of the last three years, and the 2026 yield per tap (0.307) was a high in a near-record national year, so mean reversion plus any further tap cut gets to 140k or below. It mainly rests on weather, which cannot be known before the 2027 season, and on the five-year history of all estimates above 140k. NOT FOUND: a 2027 NH tap count or season forecast; a confirmed June 2027 NASS release date; an announcement of any NASS maple survey cut; NH 2026 summer drought data; NH Maple Producers Association commentary on 2026 production.