Will Mark Warner vote "Yea" on the Clarity Act?

- [2026-05-14] The Senate Banking Committee advanced the CLARITY Act 15-9. Warner was not one of the two Democrats reported voting yes; those were Gallego and Alsobrooks. Warner did back the Lummis amendments, along with Cortez Masto, Warnock, Gallego and Alsobrooks. https://rollcall.com/2026/05/15/senate-banking-approves-crypto-market-structure-bill/ and https://www.techtimes.com/articles/319679/20260704/senate-crypto-bill-misses-july-4-three-unresolved-fights-three-weeks-left.htm - [2026-06-01] The bill was placed on the Senate calendar as Calendar No. 423. As of late July it had no floor schedule. https://www.disruptionbanking.com/2026/07/31/clarity-act-update-where-the-crypto-market-structure-bill-stands-right-now/ - [2026-09-13] Republicans released revised text adding ethics and stablecoin-yield concessions. Analysts doubted it would win enough Democrats. https://www.americanbanker.com/news/new-crypto-bill-looks-at-stablecoin-yield-but-passage-still-unlikely - [2026-09-15] The Senate cloture vote on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 failed 49-50, short of the 60 needed. Hawley, Collins and Moran voted no. Tillis switched to no on a procedural motion to preserve a reconsideration. So there has been no vote on final passage, and no debate. https://www.americanbanker.com/news/crypto-market-structure-bill-fails-in-senate-vote-49-50 and https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/15/senate-cloture-vote-on-clarity-act-fails-dealing-regulatory-setback-to-crypto-industry.html - [2026-09-15] Lummis said "it's over" if the vote failed. CNBC said the Senate leaves in early October and doesn't return until after the election. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/15/senate-cloture-vote-on-clarity-act-fails-dealing-regulatory-setback-to-crypto-industry.html - [2026-09-15] Schumer said the ethics talks broke down. Democrats wanted stricter provisions covering officials and their families. Gallego blamed Republicans for protecting the president's crypto profits. https://www.americanbanker.com/news/crypto-market-structure-bill-fails-in-senate-vote-49-50 - [2026-09-17] Seven Democratic negotiators, including Warner, Gallego and Gillibrand, called the result "a setback, but not the end". They recommitted to a bipartisan deal. This is from a secondary source (FinTech Weekly, dated 09-23). I did not find the statement itself. https://www.fintechweekly.com/news/clarity-act-cloture-vote-fails-49-50-september-2026 - [2026-09-23] FinTech Weekly reports the Senate's next work period runs 5 October to 6 November. It says a post-election lame-duck session is the most plausible window for any further action. It also says prediction markets then priced passage this year in the single digits. https://www.fintechweekly.com/news/clarity-act-cloture-vote-fails-49-50-september-2026 - [2026-09-16] Trade press says comprehensive market structure legislation is now unlikely before 2027. Tillis's motion keeps the bill technically callable. https://www.bit.com/knowledge-hub/clarity-act - [2026-02-12] Warner is a lead Democratic negotiator. He said "We want to get this done" but that it has to be done "safely". He has historically pushed on DeFi and illicit-finance and AML provisions. https://bitbo.io/news/warner-atkins-clarity-act/ BOTTOM LINE: No final-passage vote has happened. The only floor vote, the 15 September cloture, failed 49-50, and Congress is out campaigning until after the 3 November midterms. Warner supports a deal in principle, but a qualifying vote before 1 January 2027 would need a lame-duck revival and a successful cloture first. NOT FOUND: Warner's own recorded vote on the 15 September roll call. Any news from 1 to 13 October 2026 on a revival, floor scheduling, or lame-duck plans. The Senate.gov or Congress.gov record itself; I did not open it. The text of the 17 September Democratic statement.

- [2026-09-15] The Senate held a cloture vote on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 and it failed. CNBC gives the tally as 50 for and 49 against. American Banker headlines it "49-50", and the tally is reported inconsistently (the Tillis switch is a likely cause). Either way it was far short of 60. This was not a vote on final passage. The bill never reached debate, so no final-passage vote has occurred. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/15/senate-cloture-vote-on-clarity-act-fails-dealing-regulatory-setback-to-crypto-industry.html - [2026-09-15] American Banker reports the bill's Democratic negotiators voted against it. Gallego said he wouldn't back legislation that "enables" Trump's crypto profits. Republicans Hawley, Collins and Moran voted nay, and Tillis voted nay on a motion to recommit. The vote "most likely ends the push" this Congress. Warner's own cloture vote is not stated in the pages I read. https://www.americanbanker.com/news/crypto-market-structure-bill-fails-in-senate-vote-49-50 - [2026-09-15] Lummis said "it's over" if the vote failed. Senators were due to leave in early October and not return until after the 7 November midterms. CNBC calls it likely the industry must wait until next year. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/15/senate-cloture-vote-on-clarity-act-fails-dealing-regulatory-setback-to-crypto-industry.html - [2026-09-16] bit.com: Tillis switched to no so he can file a motion to reconsider, so the bill is technically still callable. It says comprehensive market structure legislation is now unlikely before 2027. https://www.bit.com/knowledge-hub/clarity-act - [2026-09-23] FinTech Weekly says ethics provisions, not the SEC/CFTC split, sank the bill. It says the realistic 2026 path now runs through agency action (SEC/CFTC), not Congress. https://www.fintechweekly.com/news/clarity-act-cloture-vote-fails-49-50-september-2026 - [2026-10-05] Polymarket's related "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market was showing about 6%. Its older sibling, "Clarity Act signed into law in 2026", had traded $23.5M. This is a sibling market, not the contract in question. https://polymarket.com/event/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026 - [2026-08-07] Sibling-market path for becoming law in 2026: peak 82% in Feb, 43% in mid-July, about 28% on 29 July and about 16% on 7 Aug. Each deadline slipped (July 4 signing, late-July window, August recess). https://crypto.news/clarity-act-polymarket-recess-odds-senate/ - [2026-05-14] Process timeline: the Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill 15–9 on 14 May. The bill was placed on the calendar 1 June. Thune filed cloture on the motion to proceed 8 Aug. The cloture vote was 15 Sept. The Banking markup had slipped from December 2025 to January 2026 and then to May. https://www.finextra.com/blogposting/33035/is-the-us-clarity-act-dead-no - [2025-07-17] The House passed H.R. 3633 by 294–134. A Senate floor vote would need 60 votes, which means roughly 7–10 Democrats. https://www.lw.com/en/us-crypto-policy-tracker/legislative-developments - [2026-02-12] Warner was a lead Democratic negotiator. He said "We want to get this done" but "It's got to be done safely", citing DeFi and illicit-finance concerns. He had earlier pushed back on developer protections. He is a plausible Yea on a negotiated bill but not guaranteed. https://bitbo.io/news/warner-atkins-clarity-act/ - [Base rate] Reference class: major bills whose first Senate cloture attempt fails and that then face an election recess. Such bills rarely get a final-passage vote within the next ~11 weeks. The remaining window is the lame-duck session, roughly mid-Nov to Dec. Per the sources, this Congress ends Jan 3, 2027, and a lame-duck revival would need a deal on ethics language. BOTTOM LINE: The outside view points strongly to No. The first final-passage vote must happen before 2027, and that needs a revived bill clearing cloture in the lame duck after a failed 15 Sept vote. Sibling-market pricing near 6% on 5 Oct agrees. Warner's Yea is a further conditional on top of that, though he is a negotiator on the bill. NOT FOUND: Warner's recorded vote on the 15 Sept cloture. Any scheduled lame-duck floor action. Any Warner statement after 15 Sept. Pricing for this specific Warner contract (deliberately not searched).

YES means: Mark Warner votes "Yea" on the first Senate final-passage vote on crypto market structure legislation (H.R. 3633 or a successor), and that vote happens before Jan 1, 2027. - [2026-09-15] Senate.gov roll call 234 (fetched) shows Warner voted Nay on cloture on the motion to proceed. The vote was 49-50 and every Democrat who voted was a Nay. This is a vote on a procedural motion, not on final passage, so it does not itself resolve the market. Warner said he voted no because the ethics text left Trump's crypto conflicts of interest unaddressed. He did not say he opposes the bill, and his objection is to one provision that could be changed. https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1192/vote_119_2_00234.htm and https://clsbluesky.law.columbia.edu/2026/10/06/shadow-sec-statement-no-15-regulation-crypto - [2026-09-14] Before the vote, a Democratic aide said Thune pitched it as a "free vote" to keep the bill moving. The bill would be amended and voted on again before final passage. So Democratic Nays on cloture were about the ethics text, not a final-passage rejection. This supports reading Warner's Nay as leverage. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/clarity-act-senate-vote-crypto-regulation.html - [2026-09-15] Congress.gov (in search results) lists Tillis's motion to reconsider as the latest action. It keeps the bill alive on the calendar. No final-passage vote is recorded, and the bill has had only one Senate roll call. https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633/all-actions and https://congressvotetracker.org/bills/house-bill-3633.html - [2026-10-08] House Financial Services Chair French Hill said on Fox Business he still hopes to pass the bill in the lame duck. Hill is a House member, not a senator. https://news.bitcoin.com/crypto-news/rep-hill-eyes-lame-duck-session-secure-clarity-act-approval/ - [2026-09-16] Digital Sovereignty Alliance's Adrian Wall said senators from both parties told him they have a strategy to try again in the lame duck. He called it "a long shot", and this is a single advocate's secondhand claim. https://cointelegraph.com/news/clarity-act-could-get-another-shot-during-lame-duck-session-policy-advocate-says - [2026-09-15] Per BitGo's account, Kennedy said the bill could return in the lame duck, Alsobrooks said it is "not going to die", and Thune can refile. Per the Sept 15 reports, Tillis said it is "not the end". https://www.bitgo.com/resources/blog/clarity-act-the-day-after-tomorrow/ and https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2026/09/16/failure-of-crypto-clarity-act-cloture-vote-not-a-surprise/ - [2026-10-06] The Senate is in session Oct 5 to Nov 6, with no revival vote scheduled as of Oct 6. Kennedy said the work "will have to wait until the lame-duck session". McHenry says it could still pass then. https://homecryptoinvest.com/articles/clarity-act-update-2026.html - [2026-10-08] Reporting says the Republican draft already included 126 Democratic-requested changes. A narrow gap on ethics text could be closed by a Trump-approved tweak, since Trump agreed to some ethics requirements on Sept 14. The Sept 15 Republican rejection of the Democratic counteroffer was the proximate failure. https://crypto.news/the-clarity-act-stalled-cryptos-election-money-faces-a-senate-test and https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/14/clarity-act-senate-vote-crypto-regulation.html - [2026-05-14] Warner voted with the Lummis amendments in committee, and he is a named lead negotiator, so a Yea on a deal he helped write is plausible. The reports above already cover this. In the 2022 and 2024 roll calls in the search results, Warner voted Yea on cloture on bills that later failed, so he does not vote against procedure on principle. https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1172/vote_117_2_00065.htm Most likely path to YES, with prerequisites: 1. An ethics deal that Trump signs off on and Democrats accept, reached in November or December. 2. Thune puts the bill back on the floor in the lame duck, and the reconsidered cloture reaches 60 with about 11 more votes. 3. Debate proceeds, there is an amendment process and a final-passage vote before the Senate adjourns for the year. 4. Warner, as a negotiator, votes Yea. Because the cloture motion was on the motion to proceed, final passage would normally come days later, after post-cloture time and another cloture vote. That is hard to fit into a short lame-duck window. BOTTOM LINE: The case for YES is that Warner's Sept 15 Nay was about ethics text, not the bill, and a Trump-approved ethics fix in the lame duck could make him a Yea. Even so, YES needs a successful cloture, a full floor process and a final-passage vote all before Dec 31. Nothing found shows any of that scheduled. NOT FOUND: Any scheduled lame-duck floor action or Thune statement on refiling. Any Warner statement after Sept 17. Any sign of a new ethics deal or White House movement in October. I could not open the Reuters Oct 7 report.

YES means: Warner votes "Yea" on the first Senate final-passage vote on crypto market structure legislation (H.R. 3633 or its successor), held before 1 Jan 2027. - [2026-09-15] The official Senate roll call (Vote 234) records Warner as Nay on cloture on the motion to proceed. This fills the gap in the earlier reports. The same record has Kaine, Gallego, Alsobrooks, Gillibrand, Booker, Warnock and Cortez Masto all Nay. The Senate count is 49 Yea, 50 Nay and 1 not voting (Coons). The seven negotiating Democrats delivered zero of the 7 or more votes needed. https://www.senate.gov/legislative/LIS/roll_call_votes/vote1192/vote_119_2_00234.htm - [2026-09-15] Congress.gov's latest action on H.R. 3633 is still Tillis's motion to reconsider, entered 15 Sept. There is no motion to proceed adopted, no debate, and no cloture on the bill itself. The bill would need cloture on the motion to proceed, then cloture on the bill or substitute, before a passage vote. Each stage takes days of floor time. https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633/all-actions - [2026-10-12] As of Oct 12, no new Senate vote is scheduled and no cloture has been filed. The motion to reconsider is still pending. The page debunks viral claims of a "final draft" vote "on Tuesday", which recycle the September text. https://homecryptoinvest.com/articles/clarity-act-update-2026.html - [2026-10-05 to 2026-11-06] The Senate work period runs to Nov 6, overlapping the Nov 3 midterms. Senators are campaigning in that period, and the post-election lame duck has about 22 scheduled session days. Fewer than 36 legislative days remain before the new Congress. That has to cover appropriations and nominations too. https://homecryptoinvest.com/articles/clarity-act-update-2026.html - [2026-10-08] House Financial Services Chair Hill says he still hopes for a lame-duck passage. This is aspiration, not a schedule. The same coverage notes that many in the industry consider the bill dead. https://news.bitcoin.com/crypto-news/rep-hill-eyes-lame-duck-session-secure-clarity-act-approval/ - [2026-10-12] Puck's Alsobrooks interview says she thinks passage is still possible in the lame duck. It also says a Democratic Congress "won't be in any hurry" to revive the bill. That points to the lame duck as the last easy window. This is a paywalled teaser, so I could not read the full text. https://puck.news/trump-is-already-lining-up-a-fall-guy-for-november - [2026-09-25] Tillis's reconsideration motion only re-runs the same vote, and no Democrat backed it, according to AMINA Bank. Even Senate passage could not produce law before the House returns after the election. AMINA says the realistic routes are the lame duck or the next Congress. https://aminagroup.com/research/clarity-act-september-2026-why-the-senate-vote-failed-what-regulates-us-crypto-now/ - [2026-10-05] The CFTC began a rulemaking on crypto trading (Regulation CTX and Regulation CAM). SEC rules are also advancing. Selig said the agency will deliver "with or without" legislation. This reduces the pressure on Democrats to concede on ethics. Orrick says binding rules may be more than a year away. https://www.orrick.com/en/Insights/2026/10/The-CLARITY-Act-Stalls-in-the-Senate-Whats-Next-for-Digital-Asset-Regulation - [2026-10-12] Mechanism: Democrats refused to give Republicans a win on a Trump-ethics issue before the midterms. Fairshake is spending about $30M against Sherrod Brown. A Democratic-House result would force a rewrite. The ethics dispute is unresolved. Lummis blames Democrats and says her side included 126 Democratic-requested changes. That rhetoric is hardening, not converging. https://homecryptoinvest.com/articles/clarity-act-update-2026.html - [2026-07 to 2026-09] Warner's stated position was conditional. He wanted DeFi and national-security gaps closed before voting yes (21Shares, about Aug 20). A Forbes quote from July 20 has him saying "I want this done" but "in a way that does not make this circumstance worse". A Yea needs a bill that changes on his conditions, and the Sept 13 text failed to win him on the first test. https://www.21shares.com/en-eu/insights/clarity-act-crypto-investors-guide - [2026-09-15] Resolution technicality: only the first final-passage vote counts. If a lame-duck bill were substantially rewritten and passed under a different vehicle, the question depends on whether it is still "crypto market structure legislation" under the linked market. Any absence, pairing or "Present" vote resolves No. https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/119/hr3633 BOTTOM LINE: Warner himself voted Nay on the only floor vote, and a final-passage vote needs a revived bill to clear two or more 60-vote hurdles in a lame duck of about 22 session days. No cloture filing or schedule exists as of Oct 12. Both the vote happening and Warner voting Yea would need an ethics deal that has not been reached. NOT FOUND: Any cloture filing or leadership scheduling statement for the lame duck from Thune. Any Warner statement after Sept 17. The full text of the Puck interview. Any ethics compromise text.