Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?

- [2026-10-11] Darline Graham (R, appointed incumbent) and Annie Andrews (D) held their only scheduled debate, with Libertarian Kasie Whitener also on stage. AP described a race that "has appeared to become unexpectedly close", and the exchange centred on who is less qualified. Early voting runs Oct 19–31. https://abcnews.com/Politics/wireStory/feud-spills-south-carolina-debate-stage-darline-graham-137184849 - [2026-10-09] Rasmussen poll (837 LV, Oct 5–8, ±3): Graham 49, Andrews 45, 6% unsure. Rasmussen's early-September poll had Graham up 48–43. https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/election_2026_south_carolina_senate - [2026-10-02] InsiderAdvantage poll (1,200 LV, Sept 28–29): Graham 46, Andrews 45. The earlier InsiderAdvantage poll (Sept 8–9) had Graham up 45–43. Trafalgar (R pollster, Sept 23–25) had Graham 43, Andrews 42. https://www.newsweek.com/lindsey-grahams-longtime-republican-held-senate-seat-at-risk-12537546 - [2026-10-06] Sabato's Crystal Ball moved the race from Safe R to Likely R. It said Graham "should be fine in the end" given the state's partisanship. Senate Leadership Fund is putting $5M into the state, and Trump and Thune are expected to campaign there. https://www.newsweek.com/lindsey-grahams-longtime-republican-held-senate-seat-at-risk-12537546 - [2026-09-23] Cook Political Report moved the race from Solid R to Likely R. It still calls Graham the "heavy favorite" and cites GOP angst about her "soft numbers" and fears of low turnout. https://www.denvergazette.com/2026/09/23/cook-political-report-shifts-key-senate-races-toward-democrats/ - [2026-10-07] Newsweek reported prediction markets favoured Graham: Kalshi 86%, Polymarket 84%. It also noted Trump carried the state by 18 points in 2024 and that SC polling overstated Democrats in 2020, when Graham won by about 10. https://www.newsweek.com/lindsey-grahams-longtime-republican-held-senate-seat-at-risk-12537546 - [2026-10-13] Kalshi's SC Senate market showed Graham about 85–87% and Andrews about 15%. This is a sibling venue snapshot and may be stale. https://kalshi.com/markets/senatesc/south-carolina-senate-race/senatesc-26 - [2026-10-05] Trump attacked Andrews on Truth Social with an anti-trans slur and endorsed Graham. Andrews has run an ad breaking with her party on transgender athletes. https://www.newsweek.com/lindsey-grahams-longtime-republican-held-senate-seat-at-risk-12537546 - [2026-08-25] Graham beat Rep. Ralph Norman 52.5% in the GOP special runoff. Lindsey Graham, the June primary winner, died July 11. Andrews won the Democratic nomination with 61.5%. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina - [2026-10-13] The ballot includes Libertarian Kasie Whitener and Constitution Party nominee Mark Hackett. Catherine Fleming Bruce is a write-in candidate. Independents are not covered by the D/R options. The general election is Nov 3, with no runoff mechanism expected in the general. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_South_Carolina_elections - [2026-10-13] The Wikipedia page lists Democrats as not having won an SC Senate race since 1998. The resolution sources (AP, Fox, NBC) have not called the race, and it is not yet decided. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina BOTTOM LINE: As of Oct 13, Andrews is within 1–4 points in recent polls and the debate was uneventful. Forecasters still rate the race Likely R and the other markets I saw price Graham at about 85%. Past SC polling has overstated Democrats (2020), and Andrews has no confirmed lead in any poll I found. NOT FOUND: Any Andrews-leading poll or independent nonpartisan poll such as Emerson, Quinnipiac or Winthrop. Q3 FEC fundraising totals (due Oct 15). Any current AP/Fox/NBC race call, which would not exist before Nov 3. Post-debate polls.

- [2026-10-12] Race: Republican Darline Graham (appointed after Lindsey Graham died on July 11) faces Democrat Annie Andrews and Libertarian Kasie Whitener. The election is Nov 3, and early voting starts Oct 19. Trump won SC by 18 points in 2024, and Democrats have not won a SC Senate race since 1998. https://www.newsweek.com/darline-graham-annie-andrews-last-name-sc-senate-debate-12553534 - [2026-10-12] Historical base rate: Democrats have lost every SC Senate race since 1998, and a Republican has held this seat since 1964. https://www.thecentersquare.com/south_carolina/article_f9b93db8-6f19-4c82-aa15-776dc108976b.html - [2026-10-12] Graham won in 2014 by about 15 points (54.3% to 38.8%) and in 2020 by 10.2 points (54.4% to 44.2%). In 2020 the polls and forecasts showed a close race and Harrison had record fundraising. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_South_Carolina - [2026-10-12] Polling is close. Rasmussen (Oct 5–8, 837 LV) has Graham 49, Andrews 45. InsiderAdvantage (Sept 28–29) has Graham 46, Andrews 45. Trafalgar (Sept 26) has Graham 43, Andrews 42. The 270toWin average of two polls is Graham 44.5, Andrews 43.5. https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-polls/south-carolina - [2026-10-12] InsiderAdvantage said almost 10% of Republicans back Andrews, but Republicans are about 10 points more enthusiastic. It said weighting by enthusiasm would likely put Graham ahead. https://www.thecentersquare.com/south_carolina/article_f9b93db8-6f19-4c82-aa15-776dc108976b.html - [2026-10-09] The RealClearPolitics average (9/23–10/8) is Graham +2.0 (46 to 44). Its race commentary still calls Graham a heavy favorite. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/south-carolina/graham-nordone-vs-andrews - [2026-10-06] Expert ratings: Cook moved the race from Solid R to Likely R on Sept 23. Sabato's Crystal Ball moved it from Safe R to Likely R on Oct 6. Ballotpedia's Mar 2026 snapshot (Solid/Safe R) is now outdated. https://www.270towin.com/2026-senate-election/cook-political-report-2026-senate - [2026-09-23] DDHQ/The Hill model gave Graham 74% and Andrews 26%. Cook cited in-state Republican angst about "soft numbers" and low-turnout fears. The Hill also notes a "very blue environment forming" nationally. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6105817-cook-political-report-kansas-south-caroline-senate-race-shift-democrats/ - [2026-10-11] Coastal Carolina's Justin Vaughn said Andrews has a path but it is unlikely. He said SC polling has overstated Democrats before. The Senate Leadership Fund plans $5M in SC as an "insurance policy", and Trump is expected to campaign there. https://www.newsweek.com/darline-graham-annie-andrews-last-name-sc-senate-debate-12553534 - [2026-10-13] Other markets and models, unverified snapshots: Kalshi SC Senate market showed about 85% Graham and 15% Andrews. PoliAgg's model gave Andrews 4%, but its page is internally inconsistent (R+14 headline against R+4.2 polling margin). https://kalshi.com/markets/senatesc/south-carolina-senate-race/senatesc-26 - [2026-10-11] Andrews is a first-time statewide candidate. She lost the 2022 SC-1 House race to Nancy Mace by 14 points. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/south-carolina/graham-nordone-vs-andrews - [2026-10-11] The resolution sources (AP, Fox, NBC) usually call SC Senate races on election night. The 2020 race was called on election night. Washington Post's 2020 page notes state reporting was delayed to 8:15 p.m. https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/election-results/south-carolina-2020/ BOTTOM LINE: The outside view strongly favors a Republican win. Democrats have lost every SC Senate race for 28 years, and recent Democratic overperformance in the polls has not carried through to results (2020). However, 2026 polls are unusually close (Graham +1 to +4), raters have moved to Likely R, and the models and markets I found put Andrews's chance at roughly 4–26%, so a real but minority upset chance remains. NOT FOUND: Polymarket's own price (excluded by instruction). A fetched Cook/Sabato primary page, since The Hill fetch failed and I relied on search snippets and 270toWin. Any independent nonpartisan poll (Emerson, Winthrop, Citadel) from Oct 2026. Historical data on how often Cook "Likely R" Senate races flipped.

YES means: Democratic nominee Annie Andrews wins the Nov 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate race, as called by AP, Fox and NBC or by certification. A win by Republican Darline Graham, Libertarian Kasie Whitener, Constitution Party nominee Mark Hackett or a write-in resolves NO. - [2026-10-02] The Post and Courier reported that Andrews was outspending and outraising Graham. It said Andrews accounted for roughly 96% of advertising spending per a Graham fundraising email. It also said Graham's campaign was struggling to fund TV, relying on the affiliated PAC Security is Strength. The same article called Andrews "still the underdog". Graham's own FEC numbers are due Oct 15. https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/darline-graham-annie-andrews-senate-poll/article_60a8a6da-13a1-47da-8d64-edbd205e7bed.html - [2026-10-12] The PoliAgg poll table (fetched) lists 12 polls. Rasmussen, InsiderAdvantage and Trafalgar are all rated R-aligned or R-leaning, and they show Graham ahead by only 1–5 points. The tracker puts the weighted average at Graham 45.8, Andrews 44.5. Its 80% interval on the final margin runs from R+3.9 to R+24.4, and it carries a separate 'Bayes/Kalman' model at R+2.1. Its 4% headline win probability is an outlier among its own sub-models. https://poliagg.com/race/us-senate-2026-sc/ - [2026-10-12] FiftyPlusOne's house-adjusted average shows Graham 44.9, Andrews 43.4. Graham is below 45% in an average adjusted for house effects. https://fiftyplusone.news/polls/senate/general/south-carolina - [2026-10-09] The Rasmussen crosstabs: Andrews wins unaffiliated voters 49–31, wins moderates 65–27, and leads among under-30s 58–34. Graham is held to 79% of Trump 2024 voters. Rasmussen has 10% of Democrats voting for Graham, against only 6% of Republicans for Andrews. https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/election_2026_south_carolina_senate - [2026-10-02] The Trafalgar poll had 8.5% undecided and 5.9% for others. That leaves room for a Graham ceiling near 43%. Over two-thirds of its respondents were over 50, yet Andrews was still within about 1 point. Under-30s broke roughly 60–18 for Andrews, so a younger-skewing electorate would help her. https://abcnews4.com/news/local/candidates-experts-react-after-new-poll-shows-scs-us-senate-race-as-neck-and-neck-annie-andrews-darline-graham-ralph-norman - [2026-10-12] InsiderAdvantage found almost 10% of Republicans backing Andrews, which it attributed to a Ralph Norman "hangover". The CNN piece of Oct 10 says some Norman supporters are organising a write-in campaign for him. Norman has endorsed Graham, but a write-in drain or GOP abstention is the main route to a Graham shortfall. https://www.thecentersquare.com/south_carolina/article_f9b93db8-6f19-4c82-aa15-776dc108976b.html - [2026-10-12] Winthrop's Scott Huffmon said an Andrews win requires three things together: strong Democratic turnout, winning independents, and lower Republican participation. He said she has an uphill climb "as long as Republicans turn out". That sets out the prerequisites for the single most likely YES path. https://www.wsoctv.com/news/local/south-carolina-senate-candidates-prepare-first-debate-amid-neck-and-neck-polls/2JDYFKZXXFEM3HVRCEDZOUYBGM/ - [2026-10-11] The Hill's debate coverage said Graham avoided new gaffes. It said the race "looks increasingly gettable for Democrats" in what may be a "blue wave" election. It also said Graham has led in the polls, unlike some GOP candidates in other red states. https://thehill.com/newsletters/morning-report/6142132-darline-graham-annie-andrews-face-off-south-carolina-gop-midterms/ - [2026-10-12] NBC reported that the Senate map is "shifting further in Democrats' favor", with Republican-leaning states increasingly in play. It said Trump used the slur "trannie" three times against Andrews, who is not transgender. Graham's earlier Taiwan "national security is not my thing" gaffe is still in circulation. The $5M SLF buy and the Trump slur show the GOP is defending a seat it once treated as safe. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/republican-senate-pac-ads-graham-andrews-rcna601848 - [2026-08-29] Newsweek reported that Impact Research (D) found Graham's favourability at 31% favourable and 49% unfavourable. A separate Impact poll had Andrews ahead 42–39 (Aug 14–22). The first Abacus nonpartisan poll was the outlier in the other direction, Graham +13 (Aug 26–28). Since then every poll has narrowed to within 5 points. https://www.newsweek.com/annie-andrews-chances-of-beating-darline-graham-south-carolina-12364487 - [2026-06] 314 Action reported that Democrats outvoted Republicans in early ballots before the June primary, 188,006 to 131,574. That is a primary-turnout signal only, and a partisan PAC memo. https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/annie-andrews-darline-graham-sc-senate-race/article_52b53d5e-b401-4e12-84c4-ec76ae7ae8b6.html - [2026-10-12] The market-implied margin of R+8.7 on PoliAgg is about 6 points more pessimistic for Democrats than the polling-only Bayes margin of R+2.1. PoliAgg reports markets at roughly 15–21¢ for Democrats (Kalshi 15¢, PredictIt 21¢, Polymarket 16¢). The 6-point gap is a measure of how much the markets rely on the 2020 precedent, when Harrison polled close and lost by 10. https://poliagg.com/race/us-senate-2026-sc/ BOTTOM LINE: The most likely YES path is a Democratic-leaning midterm wave in which Andrews wins independents and moderates. It also needs Norman-aligned Republicans to stay home or write him in, and a Graham campaign short on money and name recognition to underperform. Polls are within 1–5 points, though the only poll leaders are Republican-aligned pollsters, no nonpartisan poll since August exists, and 2020 shows this pattern has failed Democrats before. NOT FOUND: Any poll showing Andrews ahead since Aug 24 (the last was the Impact internal). Q3 FEC totals (due Oct 15). Early-vote data (starts Oct 19). Post-debate polls. A fetchable full text of the CNN Oct 10 article or the MS NOW debate piece. The Post and Courier fetch returned only page navigation, so its details come from search snippets.

YES means: the Democratic nominee (Annie Andrews) is declared the winner of the Nov 3, 2026 South Carolina U.S. Senate general election. This is determined by AP, Fox and NBC calls, or by official certification if they don't agree. - [2026-09-25] The Trafalgar poll had Graham 43.4, Andrews 42.3, with 8.5% undecided and 5.9% for others. Its Republican pollster blends live calls, texts and opt-in panels, and over two-thirds of respondents were over 50. Undecided and third-party voters in a state that is 18 points Republican at the presidential level usually break toward the Republican or stay home, which argues for NO. Andrews won the younger age groups, and those groups turn out less in midterms. https://abcnews4.com/news/local/candidates-experts-react-after-new-poll-shows-scs-us-senate-race-as-neck-and-neck-annie-andrews-darline-graham-ralph-norman - [2026-09-29] Even Andrews's own fundraising email says polls showed her down five points after Trump and super PACs attacked her. This is a campaign admission of a Republican lead, and the pattern is consistent with the 2026-10-09 Rasmussen result. Her tied-race evidence is her campaign's own Impact Research poll from Aug 18–24, which showed 41–41. https://annieandrewsmd.substack.com/p/their-attacks-are-working - [2026-10-02] The Post and Courier headline calls Andrews "still the underdog" even though she leads Graham in spending. Democratic spending was about $5.1M against $4.9M for Republicans. Money parity is the best case for Andrews, and the 2020 Harrison race shows record money did not convert. A local expert also cited Harrison leading several polls and raising record money before losing by 10. https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/darline-graham-annie-andrews-senate-poll/article_60a8a6da-13a1-47da-8d64-edbd205e7bed.html - [2026-10-06] Axios, via CBS, reported that the Senate Leadership Fund will put in $5M. The Republican spending apparatus has not yet fully engaged; this $5M is the first sign of that. Graham's own campaign is cash-poor, but outside groups can fill the gap in the last three weeks. That makes the Andrews ad-spending edge likely to shrink. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/south-carolina-senate-race-fundraising-darline-graham-annie-andrews/ - [2026-10-07] L2 data shows registration of 41.0% Democratic primary-participants against 48.7% Republican. The registration deadline has passed and the rolls are set. Andrews needs nearly all independents (about 10%) plus roughly 10% of Republicans. The ACLU says purges cut Black and brown registration by 4% in 2022–2025 even as the voting-age population grew. A Republican-structured electorate favours NO. https://independentvoterproject.org/voter-stats/sc - [2026-10-07] The Southeast Politics piece says the 2020 polls and Democrats' spending produced a 10-point loss. It also notes that most recent surveys have Graham at only the mid-40s with a 1–2 point lead. That is sub-50 incumbency, a Democratic bull case. The counter is that every poll from a Democratic-leaning state-level source still shows Graham ahead or tied, and none shows Andrews ahead. I could not fetch the page. This rests on the search snippet. https://southeastpolitics.com/south-carolina-reports-200k-new-voter-registrations-this-year-as-rolls-close-ahead-of-midterms/ - [2026-10-11] Coastal Carolina's Justin Vaughn called Andrews's task "a tall order in this current polarized moment." She must win people who normally vote Republican. The debate also gave her no clear breakthrough. Graham's counter was that Andrews "flip-flopped," which fits the Republican line of attack. I confirmed this on the fetched Newsweek page. https://www.newsweek.com/darline-graham-annie-andrews-last-name-sc-senate-debate-12553534 - [2026-10-11] Andrews has run to the right on guns, immigration and transgender athletes. This could blunt turnout from her base. Her Democratic-primary win with 61.5% over a weak opponent says little about general-election strength. The Newsweek page confirms the positions. https://www.newsweek.com/darline-graham-annie-andrews-last-name-sc-senate-debate-12553534 - [2026-10-12] There is little resolution-criteria risk for YES. A ballot with Libertarian, Constitution and write-in candidates adds no technicality that helps Andrews. The race resolves on D versus R nominee, with Graham the listed Republican nominee, and no replacement mechanism applies. The only technicality is certification, if AP, Fox and NBC split. A recount is unlikely unless the margin is very small. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elections/south-carolina-results - [2026-10-12] The Center Square notes no Democrat has held this particular seat since Thurmond switched parties on 1964-09-16. So Democrats have not won a Senate race in the state since 1998, and not this seat for 62 years. Status-quo inertia means NO unless a decisive shift happens in the next three weeks. https://www.thecentersquare.com/south_carolina/article_f9b93db8-6f19-4c82-aa15-776dc108976b.html - [2026-10-13] Early voting begins Oct 19, so only three weeks remain, and South Carolina has a record of Democratic hopes failing late. The 2026 June primary turnout was a record 25%, with Democrats leading in early voting (59% to 41%). That is partly because the Republican side had a less competitive contest, and the Democratic side had only one real contest. It is not evidence of a general-election majority. https://themidtermproject.org/turnout BOTTOM LINE: The No case is that Graham has led or tied in every poll, that her Republican-registered base is larger, and that 2020 shows similar polls and money failed. A 28-year Democratic losing streak, Likely R ratings and a close-but-not-lead polling picture mean the status quo resolves NO unless Andrews's late surge becomes a clear polling lead. NOT FOUND: Any poll showing Andrews ahead apart from her campaign's own August internal; Q3 FEC filings (due Oct 15); any post-debate poll; any independent nonpartisan poll in October; early-vote data by party; any AP/Fox/NBC call (none exists before Nov 3). The Post and Courier fetch returned only the page shell and headline, so its detail comes from search snippets.