Will the official Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend amount for 2027 be above $1,000?

- [2026-09-18] The state's 2026 PFD is $1,200: a $1,000 dividend plus a $200 "energy relief payment". The DOR release says the Legislature set the amount in HB 263. https://dor.alaska.gov/department-of-revenue/news-detail/2026/09/28/department-of-revenue-announces-2026-permanent-fund-dividend-amount - [2026-09-21] The PFD Division homepage and tax page list the 2026 PFD as $1,200 "which includes the Energy Relief Payment". The state therefore counts energy relief inside the official amount, and the question's rules include it. The 2026 payment dates are Oct 1 and Oct 22. https://pfd.alaska.gov/payments/tax-information - [2026-09-30] Alaska Beacon: the $200 bonus was triggered because oil prices reached a threshold. The state will spend more than $800M on 2026 dividends. https://www.webcenterfairbanks.com/2026/09/30/permanent-fund-dividends-will-be-distributed-alaskans-starting-this-week/ - [2026-05-19/21] Legislature passed the budget with a $1,000 PFD plus $200 energy relief. The House had wanted about $1,500 and the Senate $1,000 plus $150. The statutory formula amount would have been over $3,800. The Senate vote was 17-3. https://thealaskastory.com/alaskans-permanent-fund-dividend-now-set-at-1200-for-2026/ - [2026-05-21] KTUU confirms the budget went to the governor with the $1,200 attached. https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/05/21/budget-heads-governor-with-1200-pfd-attached/ - [2025-12 to 2026-01] Dunleavy's FY27 proposal had a full statutory PFD of about $3,650. His January 2026 fiscal plan proposes a constitutional 50/50 PFD starting in 2028 (about $3,600 per year). That plan is for 2028, not 2027. Lawmakers did not adopt it as far as I could find. https://gov.alaska.gov/governor-dunleavy-introduces-fiscal-plan-legislation/ - [2026-10-02] The Permanent Fund ended FY26 (June 30) at $91.9B, up $6.8B, with a 12.42% return and record statutory net income of $8.2B. The FY26 POMV draw was $3.8B. https://thealaskastory.com/alaska-permanent-fund-reaches-91-9-billion-as-anniversary-report-details-record-earnings/ - [2026-09-28] APFC's 2026 annual report matches the $91.9B figure and the $3.8B draw to the general fund. https://www.morningstar.com/news/business-wire/20260928166128/apfc-releases-2026-annual-report-what-alaska-built - [2026-01-27] Legislative Finance Division and OMB figures put the FY27 POMV draw at about $4.0B, with about $4.1B committed for FY28. The FY28 draw is the one that would fund a PFD paid in 2027. A secondary source reports Fund value of $87.9B on 2026-07-31 (FYTD return -0.18%); I did not confirm this on the APFC page. https://www.akleg.gov/basis/get_documents.asp?session=34&docid=8732 - [2026-03-30] Gubernatorial candidates have offered formula-style PFD proposals. One candidate frames a $1,300–$1,800 dividend under a 50/50-style split. https://alaskawatchman.com/2026/03/30/how-do-aks-gubernatorial-candidates-plan-to-pay-pfds-without-busting-the-budget/ - [2026-10-13] The 2027 PFD has not been set or appropriated. The next legislative session starts in January 2027 and the FY28 budget is due by May 2027. Dunleavy leaves office in December 2026. The legislature has paid $1,000 in 2025 and a $1,000 dividend plus $200 relief in 2026. Dunleavy, in a Dec 2025 statement quoted by Alaska's News Source, said oil revenue moves $30–35M per $1 of oil price. https://www.youralaskalink.com/news/politics/governor-dunleavy-outlines-2027-budget-priorities-including-full-pfd/article_ed3a4845-6857-44ba-b617-4ae2a293f57e.html - [2026-10-13] The pfd.alaska.gov homepage currently shows only the 2026 amount ($1,200). It has no 2027 figure yet. https://pfd.alaska.gov/ BOTTOM LINE: Nothing about 2027 is fixed yet. The 2026 baseline was $1,200 counting the energy bonus, and the 2027 amount depends on the 2027 session, the new governor, and oil prices. A flat $1,000 would not resolve Yes, since the rule needs "above $1,000", so any energy-relief add-on or a larger dividend would decide it. NOT FOUND: any official 2027 PFD amount or proposal for the dividend paid in 2027; the governor-election result or polling; the fall 2026 revenue forecast; the exact oil-price trigger for the energy-relief payment. I could not open the Alaska Beacon page (403) and I ran out of searches.

- [2026-09-18] The state announced the 2026 PFD as $1,000 plus a separate $200 "energy relief payment". HB 263 set the amount. The Department of Revenue release calls them two parts. The PFD page and tax page both give the official 2026 amount as $1,200 "which includes" the energy relief payment. Under this contract's rule, an official bundled figure counts, so 2026 would have counted as $1,200. https://dor.alaska.gov/department-of-revenue/news-detail/2026/09/28/department-of-revenue-announces-2026-permanent-fund-dividend-amount - [2026-10-13] The 2026 amount was announced Sept 18 and posted on pfd.alaska.gov Sept 21. If the 2027 amount follows the same timing, it would likely be announced around mid-September 2027, just before the Sept 20, 2027 close. This is an inference from one year's timing. https://pfd.alaska.gov/ - [2026-10-13] Official dividend history, 1982–2026: the only years at or below $1,000 were 1983–1995 (a $331–$990 range, with 1982 at exactly $1,000.00), 2004, 2005, 2012, 2013, 2020 ($992) and 2025 ($1,000.00 exactly). Every year from 2021 to 2024 and 2026 was above $1,000. Since 2016, the "surplus dividend" era, the amounts are 1,022; 1,100; 1,600; 1,606; 992; 1,114; 3,284; 1,312; 1,702; 1,000; 1,200. That is 9 of 11 above $1,000 and 2 of 11 at or below. Both misses were driven by budget constraints or low oil prices. https://ourpermanentfund.org/data.html - [2026-09-30] The 2025 amount was exactly $1,000, which resolves "above $1,000" as No. The 2026 base was $1,000 again. The $200 bonus was triggered by high oil prices, and the Legislature and DOR labeled it energy relief. https://alaskabeacon.com/2026/09/30/permanent-fund-dividends-will-be-distributed-to-alaskans-starting-this-week/ - [2026-05-18] How $1,000 became the focal number: the House passed $1,500, the Senate $1,000 plus a $150 bonus, and the conference compromise was $1,000 plus $200. The Senate's version won. Lawmakers don't expect much money left over for the PFD, and since 2016 they have paid a "surplus dividend" of whatever remains after services. https://alaskabeacon.com/2026/05/18/alaska-lawmakers-reach-budget-deal-with-1000-pfd-and-200-energy-rebate-for-residents/ - [2026-04-24] The $1,000 figure matches 2025's, which was the inflation-adjusted lowest in state history. The budget effort has been to avoid drawing on savings. The $1,000 PFD cost about $674M, and the energy bonus was contingent on revenue. https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/04/24/pfd-reduced-1000-new-version-operating-budget/ - [2026-06-05] Structural limit: any dividend above the roughly 5% POMV draw (about $3.8B/yr on $84B) requires a 3/4 vote to tap savings. The statutory formula (about $3,650–3,800) has not been paid since 2016 and fell short again in 2026. Fund value was $91.2B at 2026-05-31. https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/06/05/pfd-plans-one-on-one-with-walker-after-10k-proposal-other-governor-candidates-detail-dividend-pitches/ - [2026-06-24] Gov. Dunleavy signed the FY2027 budget with $1,000 plus $200. Dunleavy is term-limited. The governor can veto line items but cannot raise them, and the Legislature sets the ceiling. https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/06/25/governor-signs-state-budget-pfd-education-mt-edgecumbe-school/ - [2026-06-03] Governor-race PFD positions (17 candidates; the primary is done and a ranked-choice general election is in November): - Walker proposed a one-time $10,000 payout in 2027 that would end the program. - Wilson promises a statutory dividend. - Tom Begich floated a formula averaging roughly $1,000–1,500. - Heilala proposed a default based on last year's amount. The Legislature, not the governor, controls the amount. https://www.adn.com/politics/2026/06/03/bill-walker-proposes-ending-the-pfd-but-not-before-a-10k-payout-per-eligible-alaskan/ - [2026-08-12] The top three in the primary were Kreiss-Tomkins (about 22%), Begich (about 20%) and Wilson (about 10%). The general election field is wide open. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6028765-alaska-governor-race-set/ - [2026-01-27] The administration's 10-year plan (Dunleavy's proposal, not law) pencils in a PFD of $3,125 for FY2028 (the 2027 dividend) under a 50%-of-POMV rule. Not enacted. Earlier governor proposals for $3,650–$3,800 have never been delivered. https://omb.alaska.gov/ombfiles/27_budget/PDFs/10-Year_Plan_FY2027_Revised_1.27.2026.pdf - [2025-12-11] Oil-revenue outlook as of the fall 2025 forecast: oil was in the low $60s, and the FY2027 draft showed a $1.5B deficit with a full PFD. 2026's extra revenue came from higher oil prices, which also triggered the energy bonus. Revenue for the 2027 dividend depends on 2027 oil prices and the spring 2027 session. https://alaskabeacon.com/2025/12/11/disasters-dividends-and-deficit-alaska-governor-unveils-first-draft-state-budget/ BOTTOM LINE: Since 2016 the PFD has been a legislative leftover, with $1,000 as the recent anchor: exactly $1,000 in 2025, and $1,000 plus a $200 bonus in 2026. Above-$1,000 outcomes have been the norm (9 of 11 years since 2016), but 2027 hinges on 2027 oil revenue and whether a bundled energy payment is repeated and counted. A flat $1,000 would resolve No. NOT FOUND: Any 2027 PFD forecast, expert estimate or enacted FY2028 budget figure. The fall 2026 DOR revenue forecast. Any pending 2027 PFD or energy-relief legislation other than HB359 (a $5,000 opt-in one-time payment bill, status unknown).

YES means: the official 2027 Alaska PFD amount (the state's published figure, including any energy-relief payment the state folds into it) is above $1,000, i.e. at least $1,001. - [2026-10-06] The EIA's October outlook forecasts Brent at $105 for Q4 2026. That is up $14 from its September forecast, and it is driven by continuing Middle East disruptions. Alaska North Slope crude closed at $114.01 on Oct 5 and $114.78 on Oct 6. ANS is trading well above Brent and WTI. This is the strongest oil-price backdrop for the FY27 and FY28 budgets so far. https://www.petroleumnews.com/ (fetched) - [2026-05-18] The FY27 budget balances at an ANS average of at least $75. The average since March was above $100 when the budget passed. Current prices are far above the break-even, so FY27 should end with surplus revenue. That surplus is what funded the 2026 energy relief payment. https://alaskabeacon.com/2026/05/18/alaska-lawmakers-reach-budget-deal-with-1000-pfd-and-200-energy-rebate-for-residents/ - [2026-05-07] The Department of Revenue said April 2026 ANS averaged $111.17. The Brent–ANS differential was the largest monthly value since 2000. The state treats each $1 of average annual ANS price as worth roughly $30M. At $110+ against a $75 break-even, the implied extra revenue is on the order of $1B. That is my arithmetic, not an official figure. https://alaskabeacon.com/2026/05/07/amid-iran-war-alaskas-oil-is-selling-with-an-extra-premium-on-global-markets/ - [2026-05-17] Mechanism for a 2027 YES: in 2026 the $200 payment was funded from current-year surplus oil revenue. House Finance's Josephson said the war "1,000% changed the landscape," and the surplus let lawmakers include both chambers' priorities. The Legislature can repeat the structure in the FY28 budget. The state now folds energy relief into the official PFD figure. Any repeat, or any dividend even $1 over $1,000, resolves YES. https://www.adn.com/politics/alaska-legislature/2026/05/17/alaska-lawmakers-craft-budget-compromise-with-1000-dividend-200-energy-relief-payment/ - [2026-09-21] The state's own tax page says the $1,200 "includes" the energy relief payment, because HB 263 combined them into one payment. That is the precedent for the rule's inclusion clause. A 2027 relief add-on would very likely be reported the same way. https://pfd.alaska.gov/payments/tax-information - [2022-09-09] Precedent: in 2022, with oil near $110, lawmakers paid $2,622 plus $662 energy relief. The state announced it as a combined $3,284. High-oil years have produced above-$1,000 combined headline figures. https://www.foxnews.com/us/alaska-residents-receive-3284-state-dividend-energy-payout.print - [2026-10-08] At the Oct 8 gubernatorial debate, no candidate ruled out a sizeable dividend. Bronson said a full dividend is "mathematically" out of reach without a larger fund. Taylor wants a constitutional formula tied to oil revenue. Kreiss-Tomkins wants a "smaller, sustainable" dividend (the article gives no figure). Wilson backs a statutory dividend, which would be about $3,000+. The race is rated a toss-up. All outcomes keep political pressure on lawmakers not to cut below the 2025–26 level. https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/10/09/live-alaskas-gubernatorial-candidates-clash-debate-state/ (fetched) - [2026-06-05] Begich's formula pitch averaged about $1,000–1,500 over recent years. That is a rough anchor from a candidate who has since dropped out. The Aug 2026 Begich withdrawal and endorsement of Kreiss-Tomkins is noted at https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6058875-begich-drops-alaska-governors-race/. The Legislature, not the governor, sets the amount. Both chambers' 2026 opening bids ($1,500 House, $1,000 plus $150 Senate) were already at or above $1,000. https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/06/05/pfd-plans-one-on-one-with-walker-after-10k-proposal-other-governor-candidates-detail-dividend-pitches/ - [2026-09-30] The 2026 bonus was triggered by oil prices reaching a threshold. This shows the state already has an oil-price-contingent mechanism in practice. Sustained $100+ oil through the January–May 2027 session makes a repeat the path of least resistance. The legislature already treats $1,000 as a floor, since it paid $1,000 in 2025 and 2026. https://alaskabeacon.com/2026/09/30/permanent-fund-dividends-will-be-distributed-to-alaskans-starting-this-week/ Single most likely YES path: oil stays near $100+ through the spring 2027 session, so FY27 surplus revenue appears again. The Legislature then passes a roughly $1,000 base dividend plus a one-time energy relief add-on, or a base above $1,000, in the FY28 budget. DOR then publishes a combined figure above $1,000 around mid-September 2027, before the Sept 20 close. Prerequisites: - Oil stays high. - The Legislature keeps paying at least the 2026 level. - The governor does not veto the PFD or relief line down to $1,000. - The state publishes the amount before the market closes. BOTTOM LINE: Oil at $105–115 gives the Legislature surplus money for the second year running, and the state now counts relief inside the official PFD figure. That makes "$1,000 plus a top-up" the default path to YES. Timing and a falling oil price are the main risks to that path. NOT FOUND: any enacted or proposed FY28 PFD or energy-relief figure; the fall 2026 Department of Revenue forecast; the exact oil-price trigger for the 2026 bonus; any official statement that relief will be repeated.

YES means: the State of Alaska's official 2027 Permanent Fund Dividend amount, including any energy relief the state bundles into it, is strictly above $1,000. - [2026-05-17] The 2026 energy bonus was a windfall tied to the war in Iran, which began Feb 28. ADN reports North Slope crude had not dropped below $100 since mid-March. The $200 came from excess current-year revenue. Josephson said a $1,500 dividend would have needed a Constitutional Budget Reserve draw. Without oil above $100, the 2026 bonus likely would not exist, and the baseline was $1,000. https://www.adn.com/politics/alaska-legislature/2026/05/17/alaska-lawmakers-craft-budget-compromise-with-1000-dividend-200-energy-relief-payment/ - [2026-10 STEO, about 32 days old] EIA forecasts Brent falling from $96 in 2026 to $84 in 2027. It expects $87 by Q2 2027 and $74 by Q4 2027. Oil is still elevated. The FY28 budget will be written in spring 2027, and the downward path erodes the surplus that funded the bonus. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php - [2026-05-17, ADN] Josephson said the FY27 budget balances only if oil averages $75 or more. That is the fiscal margin behind $1,000. The Senate budgeters' April 22 version assumed $73 and left only a $50M surplus. Lawmakers' own working assumption leaves almost no room above $1,000 without high oil. https://www.adn.com/politics/alaska-legislature/2026/04/22/senate-budgeters-shrink-dividend-size-to-1000-add-150-energy-relief-payment/ - [2026-10-09] The Alaska Public Media debate article says the budget has a roughly $2B built-in deficit "largely thanks to" the PFD formula. Kreiss-Tomkins, a Democrat, frames himself as "pro-math", promising a balanced budget and a constitutional amendment protecting the fund from overspending. A new governor can only propose. The Legislature's coalition majorities (Senate bipartisan) have capped the PFD at $1,000 base for two years. https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/alaska-legislature/2026-10-09/3-takeaways-from-alaskas-gubernatorial-debate-for-the-state - [2026-10-09] Wilson (top-polling Republican) wants a statutory dividend of about $3,800. Dunleavy proposed a statutory PFD in all eight of his budgets and never got one approved. Candidate promises have historically not translated into law. https://alaskapublic.org/news/politics/alaska-legislature/2026-10-09/3-takeaways-from-alaskas-gubernatorial-debate-for-the-state - [2026-04-24] The House Finance Committee zeroed the PFD as a procedural step in the FY27 budget. That step was used in five of the last eight fiscal years under both parties. The $1,000 was set by the Senate majority's cut from the House's $1,500. The institutional pull is downward from the House's number. https://www.alaskasnewssource.com/2026/04/24/pfd-reduced-1000-new-version-operating-budget/ - [2026-02-11] House Finance Democrats' substitute put no PFD in the operating budget, deposited the whole earnings-reserve draw to the general fund, and produced a surplus. Republicans protested. This shows the Legislature's default is to treat the PFD as the residual to be minimized. https://alaskawatchman.com/2026/02/11/republicans-blast-alaska-dems-vote-to-zero-out-pfd-in-operating-budget/ - [2026-01-23] DOR's fall 2025 forecast assumed $62 oil for FY27 and a 5% POMV draw. The POMV draw is $3.8B in FY26 and $4.0B in FY27, and nearly all of it is spoken for. The fall 2026 forecast (Dec 2026) and spring 2027 update are not yet out. https://citizenportal.ai/articles/7365225/alaska/2026-legislature-alaska/senate-finance-committee-hears-fall-revenue-forecast-as-oil-permanent-fund-drive-outlook - [2024-01] Precedent: the 2023 budget created a surplus-split "energy dividend" capped at $500, but only $175 was expected as oil fell and ConocoPhillips deductions cut revenue. Contingent bonuses can shrink. Official 2024 total was $1,702, so that case still cleared $1,000. https://www.juneauempire.com/2024/01/14/report-175-energy-relief-payment-to-residents-education-funding-boost-likely-in-final-state-budget/ - [2026-09-30 and 2026-10-13] The pfd.alaska.gov tax page says the 2026 energy relief was "combined as one payment" under HB 263 of 2026. A 2027 add-on would need new statutory language to be combined the same way. If the 2027 energy payment were paid under a separate bill or label, the Kalshi rule excludes it, and the official figure could be a flat $1,000, which resolves No. https://pfd.alaska.gov/payments/tax-information - [2026-10-13] A secondary-source Kalshi snapshot (about 38 days old, stale by the brief's own warning) showed the above-$1,000 strike with a separate $750 strike. I am not using it as evidence. Timing: the 2026 amount was set Sept 18. The 2027 amount is likely announced about mid-September 2027, only days before the Sept 20 close. If the announcement slips past the close, resolution is ambiguous or No by default. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxakpfd/alaska-permanent-fund-dividend/kxakpfd-27sep20 BOTTOM LINE: The status quo is a $1,000 base set by a Senate majority that cuts every House and governor push upward. The 2026 bonus rested on $100 oil, which EIA expects to fade through 2027. A flat $1,000, as in 2025, resolves No, and a bundled add-on needs new law plus oil revenue that is forecast to decline. NOT FOUND: Fall 2026 DOR revenue forecast, any 2027 PFD bill or enacted FY28 budget, the exact 2026 energy-relief oil trigger, and the November governor-race result. The Alaska Landmine page returned 403.