Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?

The target range is 3.75–4.00%, so the upper bound is 4.00%. Reaching 4.50% or higher needs two 25bp hikes, at the Oct 28 and Dec 9 meetings. Markets and the Fed's own projections point to at most one more hike this year. - [2026-09-16] The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the target range by 25bp to 3¾–4%. This was the first hike since 2023. The Fed's own statement page confirms it. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm - [2026-09-16] The September dot plot median puts the end-2026 rate at about 4.1%, a range of 4.00–4.25%. That is one more 25bp hike, giving an upper bound of 4.25%. Reported year-end projections run from 4.1% to 4.4%. Chair Warsh led the meeting. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting and https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/09/16/feds-interest-rate-decision-september-16-2026 - [2026-10-07] The September minutes said most policymakers judged that one more increase by year-end would likely be appropriate. They stressed that decisions depend on incoming data. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate - [2026-10-02] September payrolls rose only 29,000, against a consensus above 80,000. August core PCE rose 3%, below the 3.3% consensus. CNBC reported FedWatch odds of a 25bp October hike at 17%, down from about 36% a week earlier. December hike odds were above 75% on FedWatch and 65% on Kalshi. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/fed-rate-hike-odds-decline-after-september-jobs-report.html - [2026-10-02] NY Fed President Williams said there is "no need for urgency". He said one more hike might be appropriate "late this year". https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-still-track-hike-interest-074804267.html - [2026-10-08] Waller said more hikes are likely needed, though not necessarily back to back. Bowman prefers to avoid further hikes in 2026. This is from a secondary preview. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/us-cpi-preview-september-2026-forecasts-and-the-core-cpi-outlook - [2026-10-09/12] Natixis thinks the September hike may be the only one this cycle. MUFG expects a hold on Oct 28 and a hike in December. Barclays expects a hold in October and a hike in December; Goldman also leans toward December. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-10-09/september-cpi-should-be-line-and-last-months-fed-rate-hike-may-be-only-one and https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-consolidation-at-higher-levels-before-cpi-mufg-202610121108 and https://www.mitrade.com/insights/more/inflation/us-cpi-preview-december-fed-hike-20261010J1122 - [2026-10-12] CME FedWatch showed about an 80.5% chance of a hold on Oct 28. Other trackers put an October hike at 16–18%. https://growbeansprout.com/tools/fedwatch and https://rateprobability.com/fed - [2026-10-02] The defirate aggregator, citing Kalshi and Polymarket, showed Oct 28 at about 84% hold and 17% hike. It gave a December hike at about 65–68%. It also showed a "another hike before 2027" market at 72%. Its figures are snapshots and look internally inconsistent. https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/fed-decision-odds/ - [2026-10-12] A Polymarket "Fed rate cut by..." market shows October at 1% and December at 2%. https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-cut-by-629 - [2026-10-12] Backdrop: Vice Chair Jefferson said on Oct 1 that 12-month PCE inflation was 3.4% in August, driven by energy prices (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/jefferson20261001a.htm). August CPI was 3.4% y/y headline and 2.4% core (https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-rate-hike-odds-surge-161700473.html). The Middle East conflict is pushing up oil prices. - [2026-10-14 to 2026-12-09] Scheduled events: September CPI on Oct 14, consensus headline about 3.6–3.7% y/y and core 2.5% (https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/key-events-week-cpi-ppi-earnings-start-and-warsh-speaks). Warsh speaks at the IMF on Oct 15. FOMC meets Oct 27–28, then Dec 8–9 (https://www.mitrade.com/insights/more/inflation/us-cpi-preview-december-fed-hike-20261010J1122). The Oct and Nov jobs and CPI reports also fall in this window. - [2026-10-13] The Fed's openmarket.htm page, as fetched, is a generic policy-tools page and shows no rate. The authoritative current setting is the Sept 16 statement and implementation note: 3.75–4.00%, with IORB at 3.90%. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm BOTTOM LINE: The upper bound is 4.00% today, so a "≥4.5%" outcome needs hikes at both Oct 28 and Dec 9. The market baseline is a hold in October (about 80–84%) and a roughly 65–78% chance of a December hike, which would give 4.25%. The Fed's median dot also points to 4.25%. A 4.50% upper bound would need a hawkish upside surprise, such as a hot CPI print, or a sequence in which October is a surprise hike and December follows. NOT FOUND: A live, directly fetched CME FedWatch reading; the figures above come from third-party reports. September CPI results (due Oct 14). Any market pricing for a 4.50% year-end upper bound specifically.

The upper bound is 4.00% today. Resolving YES (≥4.5%) needs two more 25bp hikes, at the Oct 28 and Dec 9 meetings, since the contract rounds to the nearest 25bp. - [2026-09-16] The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the target range to 3.75–4.00%, its first hike since 2023. The upper bound is now 4.00%. The Fed's open-market page was last updated Sept 16. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm and https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html - [2026-09-16] The September SEP median for end-2026 is 4.1%, which implies one more hike to 4.00–4.25%. This is up from 3.8% in June and 3.4% in March. https://www.raisin.com/en-us/news/fed-decision-dot-plot-breakdown-september-2026/ - [2026-09-16] Dot distribution, from secondary sources: 16 of 18 dots show at least one more hike. 12 dots sit at 4.00–4.25%, and 4 dots show two more hikes (4.25–4.50%). Chair Warsh submitted no dot. That means about 4 of 18 dots reach the YES level. https://www.bondsavvy.com/fixed-income-investments-blog/fed-dot-plot - [2026-09-17] J.P. Morgan reads the median as one additional 25bp hike, ending 2026 at 4.1%, then no change in 2027. https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/portfolio-insights/fixed-income/fixed-income-perspectives/fomc-statement-september-2026/ - [2026-10-13] Polymarket's end-2026 "Fed rate" market (same event family, rules likely identical) shows 4.25% at about 50%, 4.0% at about 26%, and "≥4.5%" at about 16%. These are view-only quotes, and the page's own text says markets expect an October hold and a likely December move. https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-the-fed-rate-be-at-the-end-of-2026 - [2026-10-08] Polymarket's "Fed decision in December?" market showed "No change" at 64%. https://polymarket.com/predictions/fed - [2026-09-23] Polymarket gave 84% odds of at least one more 2026 hike. About 57% was on exactly two total hikes for the year, meaning one more after September. October-hike odds were about 50-51% right after the September meeting. https://cryptobriefing.com/polymarket-fed-rate-hike-2026-odds/ - [2026-10-13] A central-bank-watch page (snapshot date unclear, possibly stale) showed the Oct 28 hike probability at about 18% and the Dec 9 cumulative hike probability at about 79%. The earlier Polymarket "No change" quote is from the Oct 8 snapshot above. https://centralbank.watch/federal-reserve/ - [2026-09-23] J.P. Morgan Wealth Management forecasts one more 25bp hike by year-end. UBS had forecast two hikes in 2026 before the September meeting. https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/federal-reserve-raises-rates-officials-signal-one-more-hike-in-2026 and https://tech-insider.org/polymarket-fed-september-2026-rate-odds/ - [2026-10-13] The key data event is September CPI on Oct 14. The next FOMC is Oct 28. A new dot plot comes only in December. Inflation is running at about 3.4% headline. https://www.regardsofwallstreet.com/news/september-2026-fed-meeting-dates-hike-odds - Base rate: the Fed has historically rarely delivered back-to-back hikes right after a cycle pivot. Two 25bp hikes in the remaining ~8 weeks (two meetings) is a stricter test than the median dot. The 2004–06 cycle (visible on the Fed page) had consecutive 25bp hikes at every meeting, but that was a pre-announced, gradual path. That is my inference from the Fed page's hike history, not a measured stat. - Track record: forecasts for 2026 moved a lot during the year. The March median implied cuts, then the June and September medians shifted to hikes. Dot-plot medians at the start of the year were repeatedly wrong, and the market's 2026 call flipped from cuts to hikes. https://www.bondsavvy.com/fixed-income-investments-blog/fed-dot-plot BOTTOM LINE: The outside view (dot median, futures, Polymarket's sibling "≥4.5%" strike at about 16%) puts the base case at one more hike, to 4.25% upper. YES needs two hikes in two meetings, which is the hawkish tail: it matches only about 4 of 18 dots, and sources conflict on how likely an October hike is. NOT FOUND: A live CME FedWatch reading for the Oct 28 and Dec 9 meetings (no dated, verifiable figure). Any Reuters or Bloomberg economist-poll number for the year-end range. Hike odds after the Oct 14 CPI.

YES means: the upper bound of the target federal funds range after the Dec 8–9, 2026 FOMC is 4.50% or higher. That requires two 25bp hikes from today's 4.00% upper bound, at Oct 28 and Dec 9, or a larger move. - [2026-09-16] Four of 18 dot-plot participants saw two more hikes this year, which is 4.50% upper. Yahoo/Deutsche Bank named them as Hammack, Logan, Kashkari and Schmid. All three of the first group dissented for a hike in July and vote again in October. Warsh submitted no dot. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-september-2026-dot-plot-144727873.html - [2026-10-12] Hammack (a 2026 voter) said higher rates may be needed to stop an "inflationary mindset" taking hold. CNBC put CME FedWatch at a hold of more than 78% for October and a hike of nearly 88% for December. Page not fetched; snippet only. https://cnbc.com/2026/10/12/beth-hammack-fed-inflation-policy.html - [2026-10-08] Waller said the hikes "do not need to come at consecutive meetings" but should be in place within an "acceptable period". He used a cumulative 75bp as his hypothetical. Axios read the tea leaves as December plus another hike in early 2027. That is a path to 4.50% by Q1 2027, not by Dec 2026. https://www.axios.com/2026/10/08/interest-rate-hikes-fed-waller - [2026-10-08] UOB sees the upper bound peaking at 4.50% via hikes in Dec 2026 and 1Q 2027. It names a more persistent inflation trajectory from energy, tariffs and AI as a risk of further tightening. It explicitly rules out an October hike, citing the Nov 3 midterms. https://www.tmgm.com/en/analysis/market-news/article/federal-reserve-more-hikes-ahead-after-october-pause-uob-202610081303 - [2026-10-08] Goldman's Hatzius said after Waller's speech that two more hikes "would likely be more appropriate" and that the odds of only one in December had fallen. Goldman's baseline is still one December hike. This is the closest thing to a major-bank hawkish revision, but it counts hikes beyond year-end, not necessarily by Dec 9. https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/two-more-fed-rate-hikes-likely-after-governor-waller-s-hawkish-remarks-goldman-sachs/cZD6eKGRBVe - [2026-10-09] BofA is the one of 14 surveyed brokerages calling for an October hike. A hike in October plus one in December is the literal YES path. Admiral put October hike odds at about 16–18% and December odds at about 75–85%. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/fed-rate-decision-october-2026 - [2026-09-29] Forbes reported fixed income markets pricing back-to-back hikes in October and December, per CME FedWatch. Bloomberg WIRP showed 70.3% for an October hike on Sep 28, which then collapsed to 19.4% by Oct 8 after the weak payrolls. The market has swung to this view once and could swing back. https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2026/09/29/what-to-expect-from-interest-rates-for-the-rest-of-2026/ - [2026-10-13] The trigger is the Sep CPI on Oct 14: consensus is headline +0.6% m/m (3.6–3.7% y/y) and core +0.2% m/m. MUFG says a core 0.3% repeat of August would revive back-to-back bets. Admiral says core at 0.3% or more could revive talk of an October hike. https://investinglive.com/news/mufg-us-cpi-seen-at-3-6-core-must-surprise-to-revive-an-october-fed-hike - [2026-10-12] Pressure is building: the US dollar hit a 17-month high and gold fell as an oil shock fed Fed hike bets. WTI hit a two-week high on Middle East tensions. Page not fetched; headlines only. https://www.tmgm.com/en/analysis/market-news/article/gold-tumbles-as-oil-shock-fuels-us-dollar-rally-and-fed-hike-bets-202610121908 - [2026-09-16] US Bank noted WTI started the year near $57, peaked at $113 in April and was recently back above $100. Fed projections show 2026 headline PCE at 3.7%. Hawks fear inflation expectations de-anchoring. The longer-run dot also rose to 3.2%. https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/federal-reserve-tapering-asset-purchases.html Most likely YES path: a hot Sep CPI on Oct 14 (core 0.3% or more) plus Hammack/Logan/Kashkari pushing in the Oct 27–28 meeting. Warsh, who avoids forward guidance, would also have to go along. A 25bp hike in October is then followed by a second in December, with oil above $100. The prerequisites are: - Core CPI and Oct/Nov data come in hot. - Williams, Jefferson and Bowman drop their "no urgency" stance. - Payrolls rebound from the 29k September print. A weaker alternative is a 50bp move in December, which has no support in the sources. BOTTOM LINE: YES needs the hawkish tail, roughly the four-dot group plus BofA. Mainstream voices (Williams, Jefferson, Waller, UOB, Goldman) put the second hike in December and a third in 1Q27, so 4.50% arrives after the deadline. A hot Oct 14 CPI is the one near-term catalyst that could pull it forward. NOT FOUND: Sep CPI results (not yet released). A fetched copy of the CNBC Hammack article (fetch failed). A Warsh view on pace. Any 4.50%-at-year-end price from a dated primary source.

YES means: the upper bound of the Fed's target range is 4.50% or higher after the Dec 8–9, 2026 FOMC meeting. That needs two 25bp hikes from today's 4.00%, one on Oct 28 and one on Dec 9. - [2026-10-01] Reuters reported that Williams and Jefferson "drove" markets to price out an October hike, and Evercore ISI read Jefferson as confirming that the Fed does not expect back-to-back hikes. Reuters also said global brokerages largely expect only one more hike this year, in December. That is the modal path to 4.25%, not 4.50%. https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2026-10-01/fed-officials-wash-away-market-bets-october-rate-increase - [2026-10-12] Morningstar says the Oct 14 CPI is the last inflation report before the Oct 28 meeting. FactSet consensus is core +0.2% m/m (core y/y 2.4%, headline 3.6%), and core was 0.3% in August. Franklin Templeton expects a hold "barring an upside surprise that's meaningfully more than consensus." Investors saw about a 22% chance of an October hike. Morningstar's text gives the report date as both Wednesday and Oct. 15, so the date is inconsistent. https://www.morningstar.com/economy/cpi-forecasts-show-moderated-inflation-september-keeping-fed-hold - [2026-10-12] RG.org, writing about Polymarket, puts an Oct 28 hold at 84%. It says October needs headline CPI of 3.8% or higher plus a clear signal from Warsh, and the inflation market gives 3.8% or more about 9%. It also notes the pre-meeting blackout starts Saturday Oct 17, so only Warsh's Oct 15–16 remarks and Wednesday's CPI remain to move the Fed. https://rg.org/news/prediction-markets/polymarket-daily-fed-october-decision-cpi-bitcoin-90000-october-12-2026 - [2026-10-12] The Investing.com Fed monitor for Oct 28 showed 78.2% for 3.75–4.00% and 21.8% for 4.00–4.25%. Its table showed zero probability for a 4.25–4.50% outcome in October, so no double-hike is priced. The same page had a row at 4.25–4.50 showing 20.3%/20.5%/17.7%, but the column labels were lost, so I can't tell which meeting it refers to. https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor - [2026-10-09] Fed funds futures (streetstats) priced about 4.12% for Jan 2027, against a 3.88% effective rate. That is only about +24bp (one hike) over three months. Two hikes would put the effective rate near 4.13%, so the curve is clearly priced for one. Futures also priced ~4.4% by April 2027, which says further hikes are pushed into 2027, not packed into this year. https://streetstats.finance/rates/fedfunds - [2026-09-30] BlackRock/iShares said fed funds futures price 4.20% at year-end, which is one hike. They price another 1–2 hikes in 2027, which suggests the 4.25–4.50% range is a 2027 destination. (The page is about 26 days old.) https://www.ishares.com/us/insights/portfolio-insights/fed-outlook-rates-kevin-warsh-fixed-income-2026 - [2026-10-07] The September minutes (via Wealth Professional) say most participants judged "another increase" appropriate by year end. That is one hike, not two. They also say participants approach each meeting "with an open mind," and decisions "would depend on incoming information." The 4 of 18 dots for two hikes are a minority against 12 for one and 2 for none. https://www.wealthprofessional.ca/news/industry-news/fed-minutes-show-most-officials-back-another-2026-rate-hike/393732 - [2026-10-08] Waller said further hikes need not come at consecutive meetings, and Bowman prefers to avoid further 2026 hikes. Two of the likely voters are on record against the cadence YES needs. The Admiral Markets source is secondary. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/us-cpi-preview-september-2026-forecasts-and-the-core-cpi-outlook - [2026-10-07] The 24/7 Wall St. article shows how fast hike odds can fade. October odds peaked at 77.5% on Sept 24, fell to about 40% by Sept 30 (before payrolls), and were 19% by Oct 7. The pricing for a hawkish streak has already been tried and failed once this cycle. The Fed also held at five straight meetings before the Sept hike, with three dissents for a hike in July. That is a slow, reluctant committee. https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/07/october-rate-hike-odds-just-fell-from-51-to-19-in-one-week/ - [2026-10-12] Resolution mechanics favor inertia. The contract resolves on the post-Dec 9 range and rounds to the nearest 25bp. A 4.25% upper bound is a separate outcome from 4.50% and does not round up. The Fed also gives no forward guidance under Warsh, so a late surprise is possible. The next CPI after Oct 14 is Nov 10, and the Dec CPI comes Dec 10, after the meeting. That leaves one more inflation print (Nov 10) between the October and December decisions. https://www.morningstar.com/economy/cpi-forecasts-show-moderated-inflation-september-keeping-fed-hold - [2026-10-01] Labor-market backdrop: September payrolls were weak (+29k per the colleague report). Jefferson said it "may take more time" to reach a judgment, and Reuters noted a 3.4% PCE year-on-year that was "no worse than in July." Inflation is energy-driven, with core CPI at about 2.4%, so the case for acceleration beyond one hike is thin. A reversal in oil prices or a geopolitical de-escalation would remove the case for even the December hike. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-may-time-next-interest-173209828.html BOTTOM LINE: NO is the default. The upper bound is 4.00%, and 4.50% needs an October hike and a December hike. The Fed, futures and brokerages all price one hike, and an October move would need a hot CPI plus a Warsh signal. NOT FOUND: Oct 14 CPI results and any post-CPI odds. A directly fetched CME FedWatch table (labels were garbled). Explicit market pricing for a 4.50% year-end outcome from CME or Kalshi. Any official Fed statement ruling out consecutive hikes beyond the Williams/Jefferson remarks.