Will total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 be above 720,000?

- [2026-10-13] The FAIR Plan's Key Statistics page still shows data "through June 2026". It gives total PIF (dwelling, commercial and BOP) of 696,562. That is up 8% from September 2025 and up 157% from September 2022. The September 30, 2026 figure is not yet posted. https://www.cfpnet.com/key-statistics-data/ - [2026-06-30] Quarterly history of total PIF: - Dec 2025: 668,609 (+4% from Sep 2025). https://ains.assembly.ca.gov/system/files/2026-01/1.28.26-fair-plan-background-final.pdf - Mar 2026: 684,388, up about 15,800 (+2.4%). Secondary source: https://firerisk.ai/fire-insurance/california-fair-plan - Jun 2026: 696,562, up about 12,200 (+1.8%). https://www.cfpnet.com/key-statistics-data/ - Implied Sep 2025 level: about 643,000. This is my arithmetic from the 4% and 8% figures, not a stated number. - [2026-06-30] Quarterly net additions are shrinking. They were 35,000–50,000 a quarter from 2024 to September 2025, about 16,000 residential in Q1 2026, and about 12,200 total in Q2 2026. Reaching 720,000 needs about +23,400 in Q3, roughly double the Q2 pace. https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/breaking-news/jane-kims-plan-to-remake-california-insurance-draws-fire-as-fair-plan-increase-nears-591074.aspx - [2026-06-30] New business for October 2025–June 2026 was 151,061, an average of 16,784 a month. That is 25% below the FY2025 monthly average. It is the plan's own figure. https://www.cfpnet.com/key-statistics-data/ - [2026-09-24] Insurance Business reported that the Department of Insurance says FAIR Plan growth is slowing. It also reported that the plan cites a decline in bulk nonrenewals from admitted carriers. The 29.1% average dwelling rate increase takes effect October 15, 2026. That is after the September 30 snapshot, so it does not affect the count. https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/breaking-news/jane-kims-plan-to-remake-california-insurance-draws-fire-as-fair-plan-increase-nears-591074.aspx - [2026-09-22] Reports (late September) describe the plan as "near 697,000" and give no newer count. Admitted carriers (Mercury, CSAA, Farmers, Travelers) have announced expansions under the Sustainable Insurance Strategy. https://beinsure.com/news/california-insurers-pledge-new-policies/ - [2026-09-11] Triple-I reported that FAIR Plan and surplus-lines business together made up about 15% of the 2025 California homeowners book. https://www.mainline-ins.com/california-homeowners-15-percent-fair-plan-surplus-lines-2026/ - [2026-01-28] Quarterly data are posted on the plan's website. The data-transparency bill AB 2061 (Chen, April 2026) would require quarterly posting; I did not confirm its final status. https://ains.assembly.ca.gov/system/files/2026-04/ab-2061-chen-insurance-analysis-042226.pdf - [2026-11-03] Insurance Commissioner election (Kim vs. Allen). It is not directly relevant to the September count. https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/breaking-news/jane-kims-plan-to-remake-california-insurance-draws-fire-as-fair-plan-increase-nears-591074.aspx BOTTOM LINE: The last official figure is 696,562 at June 30, 2026, and quarterly growth has slowed to about 12,000–16,000. Trend extrapolation gives roughly 705,000–712,000 for September 30, so exceeding 720,000 needs about +23,400, a sharp acceleration. Nothing in the last 30 days points to a surge, and the next official figure should be posted around the fiscal-year-end release (likely Oct–Nov, possibly near the question close). NOT FOUND: An official September 30, 2026 PIF figure. Any monthly or interim count after June 2026. The exact date of the next quarterly release. Any late-Q3 event, such as a mass nonrenewal or wildfire, that would cause a large jump.

- [2026-06-30] The California FAIR Plan's own page gives total PIF (dwelling and commercial) of 696,562 as of June 2026. That is up 8% from September 2025 and up 157% from September 2022. The page says the data is quarterly and current "through June 2026". Reaching 720,000 by September 30 needs about +23,440 in one quarter (+3.4%). https://www.cfpnet.com/key-statistics-data/ - [2026-06-30] New business for October 2025 to June 2026 was 151,061, a monthly average of 16,784. That average is 25% below FY2025. Growth is decelerating but still positive. https://www.cfpnet.com/key-statistics-data/ - [2026-03-31] PIF was 684,388 as of March 2026, per secondary sites citing FAIR Plan data. https://www.tect.com/feeds/blog/ca-fair-plan - [2026-03-31] The CDI Sustainable Insurance Strategy page shows 668,609 FAIR Plan homeowner and commercial policies for December. A secondary source calls the same figure "residential" for 12/31/2025, so the label is ambiguous, but the series is consistent. https://www.insurance.ca.gov/01-consumers/180-climate-change/sustainable-insurance-strategy.Cfm - [2026-06-30] Implied quarterly net adds from these figures: Q4 2025 about +23.7k (September 2025 is about 645k, back-calculated from the 8% rise, and December is 668.6k). Q1 2026 was about +15.8k and Q2 2026 about +12.2k. The trend is falling by roughly 25–30% a quarter. Extrapolating gives roughly +8–11k for Q3, or about 705–708k. That is an outside-view extrapolation of mine, not a published forecast. Sources are the pages above. - [2025-03-31] Earlier history: PIF was 516,313 in December 2024 and 573,739 in March 2025 (+23% since September 2024). The jump was driven by the January 2025 LA fires. A quarterly add of 23k+ last occurred in the surge period of Q4 2024 to Q1 2025, plus about +23.7k in Q4 2025. https://www.cfpnet.com/fair-plan-increases-transparency-by-expanding-public-access-to-financial-and-operational-information/ - [2026-03-31] An Insurance for Good analysis says growth only recently showed signs of slowing, in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. Average monthly new business in Q1 2026 was over 20% below FY2025. https://www.insuranceforgood.org/blog/growth-in-ca-fair-plan - [2026-09-23] A Beinsure report says the count is "near 697,000" and that the CDI has not published a statewide count of policies written under the Sustainable Insurance Strategy. Consumer Watchdog estimates insurer commitments of 12,189 additional policies since January 2025, based on rate filings. Depopulation effects remain small. Carriers including Mercury and CSAA have announced expansions. https://beinsure.com/news/california-insurers-pledge-new-policies/ - [2026-10-13] The 29.1% average dwelling rate increase and the commission cut (renewals 8% to 3%, new business 10% to 7%) take effect October 15, 2026. That is after the September 30 measurement date, so it does not affect the resolving figure. https://www.firstconnectinsurance.com/blog/california-fair-plan-rate-increase-commission-cuts-agents/ - [2026-06-30] Independent tracker depopulatefairplan.com shows residential PIF of 665,862 in June 2026, up from 320,572 in September 2023. It finds no evidence of depopulation in distressed ZIPs. https://depopulatefairplan.com/analysis/depopulation-promise/ - [2026-10-01] Reference class from other FAIR plans: Florida's Citizens fell from 1.41M (September 2023) to 255k (September 2026) through heavy depopulation, but California has no comparable mass takeout. Texas FAIR had 118,486 policies at June 2026. https://www.livecovered.com/citizens-depopulation-numbers/ - Timing: the FAIR Plan updates this page quarterly, and the September figure usually appears around November or December (the 2024 ZIP files were dated November 12). The October 13 snapshot still shows June data, so the September 30, 2026 figure is not yet published. https://www.cfpnet.com/key-statistics-data/ BOTTOM LINE: The last three quarters of net adds were about +23.7k, +15.8k and +12.2k, and the outside view says Q3 2026 is likely to add about 8–12k, ending near 705–710k. Exceeding 720k would need a reacceleration to over +23k in one quarter, which is not seen since the 2025 fire surge. Q4 2025 shows such a quarter is possible but now unusual. NOT FOUND: The September 30, 2026 PIF figure (not yet published). Any monthly or interim PIF update for July to September 2026. Any published analyst forecast of the September 2026 count. The exact September 2025 and December 2025 totals from a primary page (September 2025 was back-calculated from the 8% figure).

YES means: the first official California FAIR Plan figure for total policies in force (residential, commercial and BOP) as of September 30, 2026 is above 720,000. - [2026-10-13] The plan's Key Statistics page, which I fetched, still shows only June 2026 data. It gives a PIF of 696,562, so there is no official September 30 count yet. Reaching 720,000 needs about +23,440 in one quarter. This is the same figure the colleagues' reports give, but now confirmed on the primary page. https://www.cfpnet.com/key-statistics-data/ - [2026-10-13] The Key Statistics page calls the 25% drop in monthly new business "a decrease" in the same sentence as a 208% rise over September 2022. Even so, the monthly average of 16,784 across Oct 2025–Jun 2026 is a high level. Net adds depend on the gap between new business and cancellations or nonrenewals. If new business ran at the average, 3 months would be about 50,000 gross, so lapses would have to stay below about 27,000 for a +23k quarter. This is my arithmetic, and the page does not state quarterly lapse figures. https://www.cfpnet.com/key-statistics-data/ - [2026-10-12] A local report says the 29.1% rate increase and the commission cut start on Oct 15. It says the increase applies only to policies that start or renew on or after that date. That gives a possible YES mechanism: buyers and agents may have pulled new applications forward into late September. This is a hypothesis only. I found no data showing a September rush. https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2026/10/12/fair-plan-increase-thursday/ - [2026-10-12] The same report says September 30 ZIP counts are published each year, and that the 2025 release is the latest ZIP-level one. Residential PIF rose from about 236,500 to 621,200 over the period it covers. September counts are therefore a standard fiscal-year-end release, so the resolution source does exist. https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2026/10/12/fair-plan-increase-thursday/ - [2026-09-23] Beinsure says the plan "stays near 697,000". That is just the June figure repeated, not a September estimate. The California Department of Insurance has not published a statewide count of policies written under the Sustainable Insurance Strategy. Consumer Watchdog's 12,189 committed policies come from rate filings, so they are not completed sales. Depopulation is thus too small to offset inflows, which is the only support for a re-acceleration. https://beinsure.com/news/california-insurers-pledge-new-policies/ - [2026-08-18] Insurance agents reported in Aug 2026 that surplus-lines and admitted carriers are only now "re-entering" wildfire markets. This points to slow private-market recovery, not rapid depopulation, so FAIR Plan inflow could stay high. I treat this as an agent opinion, not data. https://www.oakviewins.com/ca-fair-plan-rate-increase-2026/ - [2026-06-30] The June figures show the exposure jump (+11% since September 2025) outpacing the policy-count rise (+8%). That suggests growth in higher-value policies. It does not itself raise the count, so it does not help YES. The $3M dwelling limit from Jan 1, 2026 and the eligibility changes (rental properties up to four units; two denials instead of three) widen who qualifies. https://www.homehelpersgroup.com/california-fair-plan-2026-what-changed-this-year/ - [2026-01-30] United Policyholders reported that Q4 2025 enrollment grew under 4%, after "breakneck" growth since 2024. The Q4 2025 add of roughly +23.7k (colleagues' figure) shows a 23k quarter happened as recently as 4 quarters ago. Q4 2025 residential added 21,859 per a secondary source. That makes the 720,000 threshold roughly equal to a repeat of that quarter. https://uphelp.org/californias-fair-plan-carries-growing-load-as-insurers-retreat-beyond-wildfire-zones/ - [2026-09-27] AB 69, a bill on FAIR Plan notices and renewals, was chaptered on Sept 27, 2026. Its clearinghouse offer sharing starts only on Jan 1, 2028, so it cannot reduce the Sept 30 count. https://legiscan.com/CA/text/AB69/id/3458004 BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is a Q3 repeat of the Q4 2025 surge (+23k or more) driven by a pre-Oct-15 pull-forward and continuing carrier nonrenewals, with no depopulation offset. I found no data supporting it, and the quarterly trend (+15.8k, then +12.2k) points the other way. NOT FOUND: An official September 30, 2026 total PIF figure. Any interim monthly count for July–September 2026. Any evidence of a September application rush before the Oct 15 rate increase. The next release date. The bubbleinfo page could not be fetched in full (HTTP 403), so I relied on the snippets from my search for its content.

YES means: the California FAIR Plan's first published point-in-time total policies in force (residential + commercial + BOP) as of September 30, 2026 is above 720,000. - [2026-10-13] The FAIR Plan's own page is marked modified 2026-07-28 and still says "through June 2026". Its June data files carry a 260717 filename stamp, which suggests the plan posts quarterly data about 17 days after quarter-end. The September file is not posted as of today. The 696,562 June figure is the latest official one, and it would need about +23,440 (+3.4%) in one quarter to reach 720,000. https://www.cfpnet.com/key-statistics-data/ - [2026-10-13] Last year's September (fiscal-year-end) files were dated Nov 14, 2025, per the ZIP and county PDF links on the page. A similar November date would fall just before the 2026-11-16 close, so a late posting is a small timing risk. The rules say the market stays open until the figure is published. https://www.cfpnet.com/key-statistics-data/ - [2026-10-12] A local real-estate analysis says 2025 is still the latest ZIP-level release. It reports statewide residential PIF of about 621,200 at Sept 30, 2025. Adding commercial and BOP to that gives a total near the 643–645k implied by colleagues. That means a 720k total needs about +75–77k over twelve months, and Q4 2025 through Q2 2026 supplied roughly +52k of that. https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2026/10/12/fair-plan-increase-thursday/ - [2026-10-12] State Farm and Allstate both filed on Sept 18 to resume writing new homeowners policies in California. Nine insurers, including six of the ten largest, have committed to expand. This is a new Q3 outflow channel that colleagues did not cite, and it points down, not up. Any take-outs would be reported with a lag, but they would not add to the count. https://www.bubbleinfo.com/2026/10/12/fair-plan-increase-thursday/ - [2026-10-12] Rate and commission changes apply only to policy terms starting on or after Oct 15. Policyholders already got the letter. A pull-forward of new business before Oct 15 could happen, but that falls in Q4, not Q3. Agents' commissions stayed at 10% new / 8% renewal through the whole of Q3. Nothing in Q3 changed incentives. https://www.firstconnectinsurance.com/blog/california-fair-plan-rate-increase-commission-cuts-agents/ - [2026-05-01] The CDI called the Q1 slowdown "substantial". It added that the full impact of the Sustainable Insurance Strategy rate filings had not yet been realized. So the downward pressure on growth was expected to build through Q3, not fade. https://www.insurance.ca.gov/0400-news/0102-alerts/2026/Momentum-continues-to-build-under-Insura.cfm - [2026-01-30] FAIR Plan president Roach told the Assembly that growth had slowed because bulk nonrenewals from admitted carriers had declined. Bulk carrier-driven dumps are what produced the 35–50k quarters. Without them, 23k+ in a quarter would need an unusual driver. https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/property/you-cannot-depopulate-the-fair-plan-if-its-cheaper-563757.aspx - [2026-06-30] New business averaged 16,784 a month for October–June, and the Q1 monthly average was already over 20% below FY2025. A Q3 net add of 23.4k would need gross new business well above that average, with lapses and cancellations offsetting little. The FAIR Plan's own page shows no sign of this. https://www.cfpnet.com/key-statistics-data/ - [2026-10-13] I found no Q3 catalyst. There was no wildfire, mass-nonrenewal or regulatory shock in my search results. Two-thirds of a year of slowing data plus new insurer re-entry is a status-quo-favouring setup. I found no report of any monthly or interim count after June. https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/breaking-news/jane-kims-plan-to-remake-california-insurance-draws-fire-as-fair-plan-increase-nears-591074.aspx - [2026-10-13] Definition risk: the plan has used "total PIF" for dwelling plus commercial, with BOP in some tables. Series labels have been inconsistent across secondary sites, for example 668,609 called "residential". A mislabel would not raise the total by 23k. The resolving series is the 696,562 one, and its category tables are not likely to add a large amount. https://www.cfpnet.com/key-statistics-data/ BOTTOM LINE: Reaching 720k needs a Q3 add about twice Q2's, in a quarter with no identified shock, falling new business, and new insurer re-entry. The plausible Q3 range of about 705–712k sits well below the strike, so the status quo points to NO. The only non-trend NO risk is a publication delay, which still leads to NO if the market closes before the figure is posted. NOT FOUND: Any official September 30, 2026 PIF figure or interim monthly count. The announced release date for the September data. Any analyst forecast of the Q3 count. Any evidence of a Q3 event large enough to add 23k+ policies.