Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting? — Maintains rate

- [2026-09-02] Bank of Canada held the overnight target at 2.25% (Bank Rate 2.5%, deposit rate 2.20%). The statement flagged higher upside inflation risks from Middle East energy prices, and uncertainty from new US tariffs. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/opening-statement-2026-09-02/ - [2026-09 summary, published ~Sept 16] Summary of Governing Council deliberations: the Bank judged that the risk of inflation spreading to other goods and services had risen. It also said policy would be guided by its inflation forecast and the risks around it. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/summary-of-governing-council-deliberations-fixed-announcement-date-of-september-2-2026/ - [2026-09-21] Macklem speech: another hike is possible if the inflation problem proves persistent (per Yahoo Finance). TD still expected a hold through 2026 at that time. https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/tiff-macklem-signals-possible-bank-103000788.html - [2026-10-09] September Labour Force Survey: -68k jobs against a consensus of about +10k, after -41.7k in August. Unemployment rose to 6.5%, and wages rose 2.3% y/y. TD said it "pours cold water" on near-term hike expectations and expects the BoC to hold in October. Markets priced a 27% chance of an October hike and 88% for December. https://economics.td.com/ca-employment - [2026-10-09] Investing.com: money markets had largely priced out an October hike, while a December hike remained in play. CIBC expects the BoC to stay patient and on hold. https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/canada-loses-jobs-in-september-wiping-out-employment-gains-for-2026-4941414 - [2026-10-09] Forecaster split: UBS, Manulife, Oxford Economics and Scotiabank expected an October hike (reported). TD, CIBC, RBC, Desjardins and Capital Economics lean toward a hold. https://www.mpamag.com/ca/mortgage-industry/industry-trends/canadas-job-loss-throws-october-rate-hike-into-doubt/593009 - [2026-10-02] OIS-implied odds were 74% hold and 26% hike (+7bp implied). Pricing had been near 50% in late September. https://www.bluegamma.io/central-banks/central-bank-interest-rate-forecasts/the-bank-of-canada-interest-rate-forecast - [2026-10-08 est.] Nesto says the BoC is widely expected to hold at 2.25% on Oct 28, which would be its eighth straight hold. It put hike odds at about 1 in 3 before the jobs report. https://www.nesto.ca/mortgage-basics/mortgage-rates-forecast-canada/ - [2026-10-19, upcoming] September CPI is due. August CPI was 3.0%, and UBS projects September at 3.3%. CIBC notes that about 0.8pt of the overshoot comes from gasoline. https://www.admoremortgage.com/post/rate-hike-talk-heats-up-ahead-of-the-bank-of-canada-s-october-28-decision - [2026-10-28, upcoming] Rate announcement at 09:45 ET, paired with the Monetary Policy Report. The next decision after that is Dec 9. Any change takes effect the following day. https://insightscpa.ca/bank-of-canada-october-28-2026-rate-decision-owner-managers/ - [2026-09-26] A Polymarket snapshot priced no change at about 61¢ and a 25bp hike at about 39¢. This is stale and pre-dates the jobs report. https://polymarkettrader.com/events/bank-of-canada-october-2026/ - Question resolution: this market is "Yes" if the target is unchanged at 2.25% on Oct 28. It resolves on the Bank's announcement. Nothing has happened yet. The rate is 2.25%, unchanged since Oct 29, 2025. BOTTOM LINE: As of Oct 13 the rate is 2.25% and the hold path is favoured. The weak Oct 9 jobs data cut October hike pricing to about 27%, and most major bank economists expect a hold. The main risk to a hold is the Oct 19 September CPI, which could come in hot at about 3.3%, plus a hawkish Monetary Policy Report on Oct 28. NOT FOUND: Current (post-Oct 9) OIS-implied hike probability from a primary source. Reuters poll for October. The actual Oct 19 CPI result, which is not yet released. Any BoC official speeches since Sept 21; the blackout period likely begins around Oct 21.

- [2026-10-13] Polymarket's BoC October 2026 market (synced 5:03 UTC on Oct 13) shows No Change at about 87.7%, a 25bp hike at about 12.2%, 50bp+ hike at 0.2% and cuts at about 0.1%. Volume is only about $168K, so it is thin. The market settles on the change in the overnight target. https://cryptoslate.com/predictions/market/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-decision-october-2026/ - [2026-10-11] A CryptoSlate snapshot two days earlier had No Change at 84.8% and a 25bp hike at 14.9%. A different site's Polymarket snapshot (undated, but older) had hold at 61.3¢ and hike at 39.1¢. The hike odds have therefore been falling. https://cryptoslate.com/predictions/market/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-decision-october-2026/ ; https://polymarkettrader.com/events/bank-of-canada-october-2026/ - [2026-10-02] CORRA OIS pricing implied 74% hold and 26% hike for Oct 28, a market-implied move of +7bp. https://www.bluegamma.io/central-banks/central-bank-interest-rate-forecasts/the-bank-of-canada-interest-rate-forecast - [2026-10-07] Nesto reports hike odds of roughly 50% in late September, falling to about 1-in-3 by Oct 1–2 after a weak US jobs report and an emergency oil-stock release. Money markets still price about 100bp of hikes over 12 months. It also says most bank economists expect the first hike in 2027, and that no Big 6 bank forecasts a cut. I confirmed this on the fetched page. https://www.nesto.ca/mortgage-basics/mortgage-rates-forecast-canada/ - [2026-10-12] TD Securities expects a hold at 2.25% through 2026, then 25bp hikes in January and March 2027. (Snippet only; the page returned 403.) https://www.fxstreet.com/news/bank-of-canada-policy-path-steady-with-cautious-inflation-stance-td-securities-202610121157 - [2026-10-06] National Bank expects 2.25% through 2026, with the first hike in Q1 2027. TD Economics expects a hold, and Desjardins expects a hold through 2026 with the first hike in Q3 2027. https://www.truenorthmortgage.ca/blog/mortgage-rate-forecast - [2026-09-18] One Vancouver property blog claims Scotiabank, National Bank and RBC expect an October hike. This conflicts with the National Bank forecast above, so treat it as low reliability. https://raincityproperties.com/journal/bank-of-canada-september-2026-rate-hold-vancouver-mortgage - [2026-08-28] A Reuters poll of 35 economists had a unanimous hold on Sept 2. It showed rates on hold through the rest of 2026 and until Q3 2027, with a hike to 2.50% forecast in Q4 2027. The BoC then held on Sept 2, as expected. https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/bank-of-canada-to-hold-rates-for-another-year-wait-for-more-stability-on-trade-reuters-poll-4881082 - [2026-09-02] Outside view: the BoC has held at 2.25% at every meeting since the Oct 29, 2025 cut, and Sept 2 was the seventh straight hold. Unanimous Reuters polls were right in April (41 of 41) and July (36 of 36), and in August (35 of 35). Oct 28 would be the eighth hold. The September statement flagged higher upside inflation risk from energy prices and trade. https://www.td.com/ca/en/about-td/ready-commitment/stories; https://economics.td.com/ca-boc-interest-rate-announcement - [2026-10-13] Data going into the meeting: August CPI was 3.0%. September unemployment rose to 6.5%, and the Q2 GDP growth figure cited was 3.3%. September CPI is due Oct 19, and the decision comes with an MPR on Oct 28 at 9:45 ET. https://cryptoslate.com/predictions/market/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-decision-october-2026/ - [Historical base rate] When market pricing and a consensus of economists both point to a hold within a few weeks of a BoC meeting, the BoC has almost always held. The recent hold streak supports this, but I did not compile a formal historical statistic. BOTTOM LINE: The outside view strongly favours a hold. Seven straight holds, a consensus of economists and bank forecasters for no change until 2027, and current market pricing of roughly 75–88% hold all point that way. The main risk is a hot Oct 19 CPI, since a hike was priced at about 50% in late September, so the hold price has been volatile. NOT FOUND: Official BoC pre-meeting guidance for October; a Reuters or Bloomberg economist poll for the Oct 28 decision; Kalshi's own prices (not searched, per instructions); a historical hold frequency statistic with a source; and a readable TD Securities page.

YES means: the Bank of Canada leaves the overnight target at 2.25% (no change) at its Oct 28, 2026 announcement. - [2026-10-09] Reuters, as relayed by headtopics, reported that money markets were not expecting a hike on Oct 28. A 25bp move was priced only for December. This is a primary-wire read, and it is stronger than TD's 27% figure. A named economist (McMahon) said an October hike would now be "super surprising." https://ca.headtopics.com/news/quite-disappointing-economists-react-to-weak-september-88640263 - [2026-10-09] The Globe and Mail said the jobs data reinforced forecasts of a steady rate this month. Its lead said so directly, and its quoted economist called for "watchful waiting". The paper also said several hikes are expected by next summer, so the debate is about timing and not about a hold. (I could not open the page. This comes from the search snippet.) https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/economy/article-canadian-jobs-report-september-2026/ - [2026-10-09] CIBC's Grantham judged the jobs drop to be more data volatility than tariff impact, and still expects holds at both remaining 2026 meetings. KPMG said the September losses were mostly in non-trade sectors (Quebec education, public sector), so it is premature to blame tariffs. For the BoC, the weakness is a reason to be patient. It is not a clean signal that inflation pressure has eased. (Snippets.) https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-jobs-numbers-september-2026-9.7375345 ; https://www.oakvillenews.org/local-business/september-job-losses-pour-cold-water-on-bank-of-canada-rate-hike-chatter-12878767 - [2026-10-12] A NorthLedger scoreboard, which I fetched, shows October hold odds of about 73% and December hike odds of about 88%. It reiterates the call "hold October 28, hike by December 9." Even bullish-on-hikes commentators place the first move in December, which supports a hold at this meeting. https://thenorthledgermoney.substack.com/p/jobs-shock-tests-the-bank-of-canadas - [2026-10-06] Bloomberg swaps pricing, via a broker page I fetched, traced hike odds from about 94% hold (Sept 2) to a coin flip (Sept 25), then ~40% (Oct 1) and ~33% (Oct 6). The drivers were weaker US jobs data and lower oil. Oil is the factor that could reverse this. The same page lists the inflation-spread evidence the Bank cites: core inflation near 2%, prices excluding gasoline up 2.4%, and the slowest wage growth since 2017 outside the pandemic. That is a mechanism for the Bank to look through the headline 3%. https://insightfinance.ca/bank-of-canada-rate-hike-odds-renewal/ - [2026-09-21] Macklem's Halifax speech, per Admore Mortgage, said the Bank does not want to "raise our policy rate and restrain growth if inflationary pressures are contained." He also said Q4 growth "could be roughly halved" to below 1% if the new US tariffs stay. He attributed the ~3% inflation largely to fuel prices from the Iran-related oil shock. This is the Governor's own framing that supports waiting. https://admoremortgage.com/post/rate-hike-talk-heats-up-ahead-of-the-bank-of-canada-s-october-28-decision - [2026-10-09] The unemployment rate of 6.5% is back to its start-of-2026 level (CBC). Deloitte has cut its 2027 growth forecast by 20%, and new import bans on Canadian products add drag (CBC). Together with wage growth of 2.3–2.4% (TD), this makes it hard for Governing Council to start a cycle at a meeting where the MPR must show a weaker Q4. https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-jobs-numbers-september-2026-9.7375345 - [2026-10-12 to 10-16, upcoming] Macklem and Rogers have Bangkok appearances (IIF, Atlantic Council, IMF) on Oct 14–16, per the BoC events page I searched. These are the last public comments before blackout. They can be used to guide markets toward a December-or-later hike. The Oct 19 Business Outlook Survey and consumer expectations survey could still shift pricing. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/press/upcoming-events/ - [2026-10-12 to 10-13] The single most likely path to YES: September CPI on Oct 19 comes in near or below the 3.3% that UBS projects, with BoC core measures not accelerating. The Bank can then repeat its Sept 2 line that upside risks have increased. The MPR on Oct 28 would flag that risk and the weak Q4 outlook, and keep the hike option for Dec 9, which is also the next non-MPR meeting. Prerequisites: no large oil spike (Brent was near $103 on Oct 8, per NorthLedger), no hawkish pre-meeting speech, and Governing Council continuing to treat the jobs weakness as a reason for patience. Pricing already sits on that path (hold at roughly 73–88% depending on the source). https://thenorthledgermoney.substack.com/p/jobs-shock-tests-the-bank-of-canadas - [2026-08-31] Outside view: market pricing for the Sept 2 meeting was about 3% hike, and the Bank held. Pricing then swung to a coin flip within weeks, so this market is volatile but has reverted toward hold. Same pattern in the 94% hold read from LSEG on Sept 2. https://www.techtimes.com/articles/326070/20260831/bank-canada-holds-wednesday-two-banks-forecast-october-hike-lock-wait.htm BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case is that no one credible expects an October hike now. Economists and markets put the first move in December, and the weak jobs print gives the Bank a reason to wait for the MPR and December. The main thing that breaks it is a hot Oct 19 CPI that also lifts core inflation, or an oil spike. NOT FOUND: A primary-source (Bloomberg/LSEG/CORRA) post-Oct 9 OIS hike probability. A Reuters economist poll for Oct 28. The Oct 19 CPI result or a consensus figure other than UBS's 3.3%. A full readable Globe and Mail or CBC page. Macklem's remarks from Oct 14, which have not happened yet.

YES means: the Bank of Canada leaves its overnight target at 2.25% on Oct 28, 2026. That is a hold, or "hike of 0bps". My dimension argues the NO side: the Bank hikes, or otherwise changes the rate. - [2026-10-09] Desjardins expects a hold on Oct 28 but says the Bank could be forced to hike "soon" as energy-driven inflation spreads. Capital Economics, which also leans hold, says the Bank is still on course to raise to the 2.75% midpoint of its neutral range (2.25–3.25%) "soon". That makes a hike a matter of timing, not direction. Even the hold camp expects the next move to be up, so any hot data could pull it forward to Oct 28. https://www.pantheregroup.com/2026/10/09/sour-job-report-could-give-bank-of-canada-breathing-room-on-rate-hikes-economists-say/ - [2026-10-09] BMO's Porter argued the Sept jobs drop is overstated. More than half of the 68k loss was in education, which he tied to a seasonal-adjustment issue around the school restart and to the international-student pullback. Private-sector employment rose, and Capital Economics said the details were not as bad as the headline. Labour force participation is at a three-decade low, which is holding the unemployment rate down. A hawkish Governing Council could therefore discount the jobs miss. Same URL as above. - [2026-09 summary, BoC primary source, fetched] Governing Council agreed the risk of inflation spreading "had risen". It said policy would be "guided by the Bank's inflation forecast and the risks around it", and that weakness in growth would be factored into that forecast. The wording makes the decision forecast-driven, not data-driven. The Oct 28 MPR is the first on the new Prima model, which is meant to separate temporary from persistent inflation. A forecast with higher persistence could justify a hike despite weak jobs. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/09/summary-of-governing-council-deliberations-fixed-announcement-date-of-september-2-2026/ - [2026-09-21, via 2026-09 coverage] Macklem said that if the Bank is too slow, it would have to raise "very quickly" and by more. He said the Bank can look through temporary gasoline moves but not persistently high energy costs, and flagged oil near US$100 as the problem scenario. This is an explicit pre-commitment to avoid falling behind the curve, which favours acting early. https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2026/09/bank-of-canadas-macklem-flags-risk-of-delaying-rate-hike-too-long/ - [2026-10-06 to 2026-10-12] Bloomberg-sourced odds had a hike at about 40% on Oct 1 and about one in three on Oct 6. Pricing then fell to about 27% hike (about 73% hold) after the jobs report. The market still prices a December hike at about 88%, so a hike is expected within weeks. A single hot CPI print could close the gap quickly. The latest hold odds quoted in these sources top out at about 73%. https://thenorthledgermoney.substack.com/p/jobs-shock-tests-the-bank-of-canadas ; https://insightfinance.ca/bank-of-canada-rate-hike-odds-renewal/ - [2026-10-12] NorthLedger's own call is "hold on Oct 28, hike by Dec 9". It names the Oct 19 September CPI plus the Bank's Business Outlook Survey and consumer survey as "the deciding number", and the last hard data before the decision. UBS sees CPI at 3.3% versus 3.0% in August. https://thenorthledgermoney.substack.com/p/jobs-shock-tests-the-bank-of-canadas - [2026-09-02, StatCan/Nesto] August core measures were soft, with CPI-trim at 1.9% and CPI-median at 2.0%. Ex-gasoline CPI was 2.4%. This is the strongest hold evidence, so a NO needs a core surprise. The Oct 19 print is the swing factor. The Q2 BOS (Jul 2026) had already shown firms' inflation expectations up and more firms expecting price increases. A Q3 BOS that confirms this would be the hike trigger. https://www.nesto.ca/featured-articles/inflation-rate-cpi-in-canada/ ; https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/07/business-outlook-survey-second-quarter-of-2026/ - [2026-10-07] Forecaster split: UBS, Manulife, Oxford Economics and Scotiabank had called for an October hike (reported Oct 9). Their calls pre-date the jobs report, and I found no confirmation that any has revised. If any hold, a split Street shows a real tail rather than a settled consensus. The Aug 28 unanimous Reuters poll looks weaker as a guide, because those economists forecast no hike until Q3 2027. That timing has since been pulled forward by about a year. https://www.mpamag.com/ca/mortgage-industry/industry-trends/canadas-job-loss-throws-october-rate-hike-into-doubt/593009 - [2026-10-12] Resolution mechanics: the rule says "Yes" only if there is a hike of 0bps. Any change in the target at the Oct 28 decision (a hike, or a hypothetical cut) makes it No. There is no rounding or partial scenario. The decision comes out at 9:45 ET on Oct 28, the same day as trading close. Nothing in the rules makes an early No impossible. An intermeeting move is extremely unlikely, and I found nothing suggesting one. https://insightscpa.ca/bank-of-canada-october-28-2026-rate-decision-owner-managers/ - [2026-10-09] Capital Economics notes that markets bet on four hikes by end-2027, and the Oct 9 report cites KPMG warning that "indiscriminate" bond markets could compel hikes this year. Higher long yields and a weaker CAD (USD/CAD about 1.42) add to the pressure for tightening. https://www.pantheregroup.com/2026/10/09/sour-job-report-could-give-bank-of-canada-breathing-room-on-rate-hikes-economists-say/ BOTTOM LINE: The NO path needs a hot Oct 19 CPI (headline near 3.3% with firm core), a Q3 BOS showing broadening price expectations, and a MPR built on a more persistent-inflation forecast. Even then it has to override the weak jobs data and soft August core. As of Oct 13 the hike probability is roughly a quarter or less, but a December hike is about 88% priced, so the case for hiking is a timing question. NOT FOUND: Any post-Oct 9 revision of the UBS, Scotiabank, Manulife or Oxford calls. A primary-source (Bloomberg/LSEG) post-jobs OIS probability. The Oct 19 CPI and BOS results, which are not yet released. Any Reuters poll for Oct 28. Any BoC official remarks since Sept 21.