Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?

- [2026-10-12] Registration closed 2026-09-04. 81 candidates registered for the 22 head posts. The CEC is due to certify the candidate list by 10-16 and hold the ballot-number draw on 10-23. Mayor lists are published 11-12 and county/city lists 11-17. Vote is 11-28. Winners are certified by 12-04. A nuclear-power referendum is held the same day. Polls are banned from 11-18. https://www.managertoday.com.tw/articles/view/72722 - [2026-08-28] Templeman's pre-election baseline: the KMT holds 16 of 22 seats, the DPP 5, and 1 is independent (Kao Hung-an, Hsinchu City). The KMT is defending 10 open seats and the DPP 3. - His late-August ratings: Safe KMT 3 (Nantou, Kinmen, Lienchiang). Likely KMT 3 (Taipei, Taoyuan, Miaoli). Lean KMT 6 (Taichung, Keelung, Hsinchu County, Yunlin, Hualien, Taitung). - Toss-up 2 (New Taipei, Penghu). Lean DPP 4 (Yilan, Changhua, Chiayi City, Pingtung). Likely DPP 3 (Tainan, Kaohsiung, Chiayi County). Lean independent 1 (Hsinchu City). - His tally is about 12 KMT to 7 DPP, with 3 undecided. The KMT would still lead on that count. https://www.kharistempleman.com/blog/taiwan-2026-local-elections-preview-5-wrap-up - [2026-10-12] Nominee list from registration data. The KMT is running in 19 or 20 of the 22 races, which matches the KMT's statement in July of 19 of 21 races at that point. Per the PTS and Manager Today lists, the KMT has no candidate in Hsinchu City, where Kao Hung-an runs as an independent. It also has none in Chiayi County, where the KMT-backed independent Wu Pin-jui runs. The lists I saw were truncated for Chiayi City and Lienchiang, so I could not confirm those two. https://news.pts.org.tw/article/801606 - [2026-05-04] Chiayi City: the joint KMT-TPP candidate Chang Chi-kai is a TPP member. Whether he counts as a KMT "official candidate" depends on his registration affiliation. This is a resolution edge case, not one I could settle. https://www.kharistempleman.com/blog/taiwan-2026-local-elections-preview-4-south-east-and-offshore-islands - [2026-10-12] Taichung: a DPP-friendly poll shows the gap narrowing between the KMT's Johnny Chiang and the DPP's Ho Hsin-chun. Earlier polls showed Chiang ahead 37.3 to 31.3 (Oct 2–4) and 34.3 to 32.4 (Oct 5–6). https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-hant/2026%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E7%9B%B4%E8%BD%84%E5%B8%82%E9%95%B7%E5%8F%8A%E7%B8%A3%E5%B8%82%E9%95%B7%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89%E6%B0%91%E6%84%8F%E8%AA%BF%E6%9F%A5 - [2026-10-09] Taipei: the TVBS poll has KMT incumbent Chiang Wan-an at 49% and the DPP's Puma Shen at 41%. That gap is narrower than in the May poll, and the poll also shows a KMT-leaning partisan split. https://udn.com/news/story/124652/9803622 - [2026-10-03] New Taipei: NBR describes the KMT's Lee Shu-chuan versus the DPP's Su Chiao-hui as tight, with Su holding a modest lead in the latest polls it cites. The race is KMT-TPP joint (Huang Kuo-chang withdrew in April). https://www.nbr.org/publication/a-look-ahead-to-taiwans-2026-local-elections/ - [2026-09-07] KMT-TPP cooperation halted in Hsinchu County after a dispute over the Jhubei mayoral race. The KMT's Wu Hsu-chih and the TPP's Chiu Chen-yuan both registered, so the DPP's Tseng Sheng-kai faces a split opposition there. Templeman says there are no blue-white splits in any county-level head race. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2026/09/07/2003863815 - [2026-10-04] Campaigns are heating up. In Kaohsiung, KMT legislator Ko Chih-en campaigned with Ko Wen-je, while the DPP's Lai Jui-lung is the favourite in the DPP stronghold. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2026/10/04/2003865376 - [2026-09-07] Candidate matchups, per Focus Taiwan: - Taoyuan: KMT incumbent Chang San-cheng vs DPP's Huang Shih-chieh. - Keelung: KMT incumbent Hsieh Kuo-liang vs DPP's Tung Tzu-wei. - Hsinchu County: KMT's Hsu Hsin-ying vs DPP's Cheng Chao-fang. - Miaoli: KMT incumbent Chung Tung-chin vs DPP's Chen Pin-an. https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202609075001 - [2026-07-25] Historical baseline: the KMT won 15 head seats in 2018 and 14 in 2022, with the DPP at 5 in 2022. https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202607250011 - [2026-10-12] Nothing has been decided yet. Official results are not due before 11-28, with certification by 12-04. https://www.managertoday.com.tw/articles/view/72722 BOTTOM LINE: The KMT enters as the incumbent plurality party with 16 of 22 seats, nominates in nearly all races, and runs coordinated with the TPP. Even independent pre-election ratings that are somewhat DPP-favourable still put the KMT ahead, about 12 to 7. The main risks are DPP gains in open seats (New Taipei, Taichung, Changhua, Yilan) and the Chiayi City affiliation edge case. NOT FOUND: the CEC's final certified candidate list (due 10-16), any live results (the election has not happened), and full mainstream polling for the counties and for Tainan, Kaohsiung and New Taipei in October. I also could not confirm whether the KMT or a TPP member is registered in Chiayi City, or confirm Lienchiang's nominee.

- [2022-11-26] The KMT won 14 of 22 head-of-local-government seats in 2022, including a Hsinchu City win by the TPP. The DPP won 5 and the TPP 2. Seat count is from Wikipedia's results table. Taiwan News counted 13 of 21 on election night because the Chiayi City race was postponed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Taiwanese_local_elections - [2018-11-24] The KMT won 15 seats and the DPP 6, in the KMT's best result in over 20 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Taiwanese_local_elections - [2005-12-03] The KMT won 15 seats and the DPP 7 in 2005. In 2014 the DPP won 13 and the KMT 6. Both figures are from Wikipedia infobox snippets. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005%E2%80%9306_Taiwanese_local_elections - [2026-10-12] The KMT currently holds 14 seats, the DPP 5 and the TPP 1 (Wikipedia). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Taiwanese_local_elections - [2026-10-12] 81 candidates registered for 22 head posts, and the CEC certifies the final list by 10/16. Voting is 11/28 and winners are announced by 12/4. The DPP list covers all 22 posts except Hsinchu City, where it backs Chuang Ching-cheng. The KMT list has no nominee in Hsinchu City or Chiayi County. The KMT nominated incumbents in Taipei (Chiang Wan-an), Taoyuan (Chang San-cheng), Keelung (Hsieh Kuo-liang), Miaoli (Chung Tung-chin) and Nantou (Hsu Shu-hua). https://www.managertoday.com.tw/articles/view/72722 - [2026-08-08] Taipei Times columnist: Taipei looks safe for the KMT and New Taipei is competitive. The KMT and DPP each nominated 19 candidates, and the KMT-led alliance backs the other three (two independents and one TPP). I could only see the search snippet, not the full page. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/feat/archives/2026/08/08/2003862131 - [2026-10-13] A Trust Alliance/Tai Li-an poll (a DPP-leaning pollster, likely) puts DPP's Su Chiao-hui at 43.1% to KMT's Lee Shu-chuan at 30.0% in New Taipei. It also found party identification at 34.5% DPP and 21.3% KMT. https://news.tvbs.com.tw/politics/4035295 - [2026-10-07] The Diplomat says DPP's Puma Shen is polling unusually well in Taipei, a traditional KMT stronghold. https://thediplomat.com/2026/10/the-surprising-drama-in-taipeis-2026-mayor-race/ - [2026-09-25] NBR says the New Taipei race is tight, with Su holding a modest lead. It calls the Taichung and Kaohsiung races open seats. https://www.nbr.org/publication/a-look-ahead-to-taiwans-2026-local-elections/ - [2026-10-12] The DPP says its Taichung poll gap is narrowing. Taichung is an open seat (term-limited KMT mayor Lu Shiow-yen), with KMT's Johnny Chiang against DPP's Ho Hsin-chun. This is a partisan source. https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/5603976 - [2026-07-30] A street-poll YouTuber, not a rigorous forecaster, predicted KMT 13, DPP 8, independent 1. The snippet put Taipei at KMT 63%, DPP 37%. https://www.chinatimes.com/realtimenews/20260730004987-260407 - [2026-09-07] Focus Taiwan lists the candidates. Hsinchu City's Ann Kao (Ko Wen-je's former TPP, now independent) does not count for the KMT. Chen Chung-chia is an independent in Changhua. https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202609070001 (the list is at https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202609075001) Reference-class notes: - The KMT has won the most seats in 2005, 2018 and 2022, and the DPP in 2014 and 2009-10 era (2014 DPP 13 to KMT 6). - The KMT has led the count in about four of the last six comparable cycles. The first-party count has swung by 7–9 seats between cycles. - In 2022 the DPP held 6 seats going in and won 5, while the KMT went from 14 to 14. The KMT's starting position of 14 is a large cushion, since the DPP would need a net gain of roughly 9 seats to overtake it. BOTTOM LINE: The base rate and the starting position (KMT 14 seats, DPP 5) favour the KMT strongly. The DPP would need to gain around 9 seats net, and the same-seat swing in 2014 was 7 for the KMT. The current signals are the DPP's New Taipei poll lead and Shen's strength in Taipei, but I found no outright poll-based forecast of the seat total. The only seat forecast found was a YouTuber's, at KMT 13. NOT FOUND: A rigorous seat-count forecast from a professional forecaster, and Polymarket's sibling markets for this event. I also did not find a non-partisan aggregate of polls across all 22 races. The Taipei Times and Chinatimes pages returned 403 errors, so I relied on their snippets.

YES means: The KMT's official nominees win more of the 22 mayor/magistrate posts than any other party on 2026-11-28, with ties going to the alphabetically first party. Independents don't count. - [2026-09-08] TPOC's model, run to 9/7, has the KMT ahead in 14 counties and cities, the DPP in 7, and one independent (Hsinchu City) ahead. It puts New Taipei and Hsinchu County within 2 points. This is the only full 22-race model found. I saw only the search snippet, because the page returned 403. https://www.tpoc.com.tw/ArticlePage/5500ac65-bf60-4464-bf5b-443bc36af5ca - [2026-10-07] The KMT New Taipei caucus released a TVBS-run poll (9/29–10/3, n=1,210, ±2.8). It has Lee Shu-chuan at 42.6% and Su Chiao-hui at 35.9%. It reports a stable 6.2–6.9 point lead since June. Among non-partisans the lead is 33.9% to 21.6%, and 77.8% of TPP supporters back Lee. It is a KMT-commissioned poll, but the pollster is a mainstream one. This conflicts with the DPP-leaning Trust Alliance poll of 10/13 (Su +13.1), so New Taipei is contested rather than lost. https://udn.com/news/story/124652/9799941 - [2026-10-12] A pro-DPP Taichung poll (Trust Taiwan Friends' Association) still has KMT's Johnny Chiang ahead, 34.3% to 32.4%, even though the sponsor is DPP-friendly. https://udn.com/news/story/124652/9799941 - [2026-08-28] Templeman's seat arithmetic: even after he gives every "lean" and "likely" race to its camp and splits the two toss-ups, the count is KMT 12, DPP 7. That leaves the KMT about 5 seats clear. Under that count the DPP would need to flip roughly 3 or more KMT-leaning races beyond its leans just to tie. Details on his structural caveats: the KMT is defending 10 open seats against the DPP's 3. https://www.kharistempleman.com/blog/taiwan-2026-local-elections-preview-5-wrap-up - [2026-08-28] Templeman reports that, of the 19 races where the KMT fields or backs a candidate, none has a blue-white split at county level. The TPP's nominees have consistently stood down after joint-polling primaries. The only exceptions are the Jhubei City race and (per the 9/7 report already noted) Hsinchu County. This unity is the main mechanism keeping the KMT's plurality intact. https://www.kharistempleman.com/blog/taiwan-2026-local-elections-preview-5-wrap-up - [2026-08-18] Changhua, the DPP's most-needed flip, is a three-way race. The ETtoday poll has DPP's Chen Su-yueh at 36.4%, the KMT's Wei Ping-cheng at 19.4% and ex-DPP independent Chiu Chien-fu at 12.7%, with about 30% undecided. Only 58.6% of KMT supporters back Wei. The split on the DPP side (Chiu) and the KMT's weak consolidation roughly offset. A late-July party internal poll had Wei overtaking Chiu by about 5 points. Changhua remains a lean-DPP race but not safe. https://www.ettoday.net/news/20260818/3221430.htm - [2026-10-12] Even in a KMT-unfavourable reading, a lost Taichung and New Taipei would leave the KMT with Taipei, Taoyuan, Keelung, Miaoli, Hsinchu County, Nantou, Yunlin, Hualien, Taitung, Kinmen and Lienchiang. That is 11 before any other seats are counted. The DPP's reachable ceiling is Tainan, Kaohsiung, Chiayi County, Pingtung, Yilan, Changhua, Chiayi City, Penghu, New Taipei and Taichung, which is 10. The most likely YES path is therefore the KMT holding all of its "safe/likely/lean" seats (about 11–12) while the DPP takes its southern seats plus one or two of Yilan, Changhua and Chiayi City. Prerequisites: Taipei and Taoyuan hold, Taichung holds, and blue-white splits stay confined to Hsinchu County. (Derived from the Templeman ratings; my own arithmetic.) https://www.kharistempleman.com/blog/taiwan-2026-local-elections-preview-5-wrap-up - [2026-10-12] Taichung: the KMT's Chiang is the favourite, with a lead in every poll found, including the DPP-friendly one above. In Taipei, a TVBS poll of 10/9 has the KMT incumbent 8 points ahead. These two big-city anchors, plus Taoyuan, are the least-disputed KMT seats. https://udn.com/news/story/124652/9799941 - [2026-10-01] An opinion-monitoring analysis by TPOC of social media (9/25–10/1) found that the KMT's push for a 20,000 NT$ cash handout drew far more "will vote KMT" posts (32.73%) than "will vote DPP" (5.70%). It is social-media data, not a poll, and so a weak signal, but it points to the KMT having a campaign issue. https://udn.com/news/story/124652/9804503 - [2026-04-02] Chiayi City edge case, relevant to resolution: the PTS and UDN reports from April and September show the joint candidate Chang Chi-kai was nominated by the TPP, having won the joint primary over the KMT's Weng Shou-liang, and he registered on 9/2 as a TPP candidate. Chiayi City therefore likely does not count as a KMT win. It was already excluded from the KMT's reachable count in the base case, so the KMT's lead rests on its other seats. https://news.pts.org.tw/article/802486 - [2026-04-02] A prediction-market aggregator (Lines) recorded the KMT contract at about 83% on 2026-04-02, falling from 88% at open. That is stale, and the price is shown for context only. https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/elections/2026-taiwanese-local-elections-party-winner BOTTOM LINE: Every seat-count source found has the KMT ahead, by about 14–7 in the TPOC model and 12–7 in Templeman's. A tie or loss needs the DPP to take New Taipei and Taichung and also hold or win Penghu and the Changhua/Yilan/Chiayi City leans. Taichung is the pivotal seat, since the KMT leads in every poll of it, even DPP-friendly ones. NOT FOUND: A rigorous non-partisan poll aggregate for all 22 races, Lienchiang's nominee, and the CEC's final certified list (due 10/16). TPOC's page itself would not load, so its figures come from the search snippet.

YES means: the KMT's official candidates win more of the 22 mayor/magistrate posts than any other party. Ties go to the party first alphabetically in the market group. NO means the DPP or another party wins more posts, or a tie goes to another party. - [2026-09-26] The DPP's stated goal is to go from 5 seats to 10. It would hold Kaohsiung, Tainan, Pingtung, Penghu and Chiayi County, and add Keelung, Yilan, Changhua, Chiayi City and Hsinchu County. That list does not include Taipei, Taichung, Taoyuan or New Taipei. Even full success would give the DPP about 10 seats, so a DPP plurality would need New Taipei and/or Taichung as well. CNA says New Taipei is close and that some polls show Su ahead. The article also credits the DPP with an economic backdrop of forecast growth "up to 11%". https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/news/6446974 - [2026-06-01] The Global Views (遠見) survey (Mar 2–Apr 14, n=14,251) is the broadest all-22 poll I found. It had the KMT ahead in 4 of the 6 special municipalities and in 10 of the 16 other localities. The DPP led in Tainan, Kaohsiung and 6 of the 16 others. Yilan and Chiayi City were flagged as likeliest to flip from blue to green. The headline margins are mostly the KMT's, but undecided voters are 40–60% in most localities, so these are not seat forecasts. Its readings are 22 localities, with the KMT led by the largest undecided share in Hualien. https://www.gvm.com.tw/article/130553 - [2026-06-01] A NO route needs flips well beyond Yilan and Chiayi City. In the same poll, Changhua had blue 26.2 vs green 20.8 and Yunlin had blue 21.7 vs green 15.8, both within 10 points and both with majority undecided. Hsinchu City was a three-way blue 14.1, green 16.5, white 14.9 split. The KMT was also not fielding a candidate there, since the Sept 7 report has Kao running as an independent. https://www.gvm.com.tw/article/130553 - [2026-05-04] Chiayi City resolution technicality: both the Wikipedia infobox (retrieved Oct 12) and the Focus Taiwan July 4 report list Chang Chi-kai as a TPP member. So the KMT's own count likely does not include Chiayi City, which also leans DPP. This lowers the KMT's ceiling by one seat, while Hsinchu City (independent) and Chiayi County (KMT-backed independent) are already outside the KMT column. The KMT therefore starts from a nominal ceiling of about 19 or 20 seats, not 22. https://focustaiwan.tw/politics/202607040014 - [2026-07-30] The street-polling YouTuber (Tsai Yu-chieh) has a district-level pattern the colleagues' reports did not give. He has the DPP taking Yilan (53%), Changhua (48%) and Chiayi City (60%), and holding Pingtung (53%) and Chiayi County (62%). That gives the DPP 8 seats against the KMT's 13. The same snippet gave Yilan's KMT candidate Wu Tsung-hsien a 1.3-point deficit in internal polling. https://tw.news.yahoo.com/2026%E7%B8%A3%E5%B8%82%E9%95%B7%E6%9C%80%E6%96%B0%E9%A0%90%E6%B8%AC%E5%87%BA%E7%88%90-%E8%A1%97%E9%A0%AD%E6%B0%91%E8%AA%BF-3%E7%B8%A3%E5%B8%82%E8%97%8D%E5%A4%A9%E8%AE%8A%E7%B6%A0%E5%9C%B0-032703050.html - [2026-09-07] The Changhua KMT nominee Wei Ping-cheng is far behind in ETtoday's Aug 10–17 poll: 19.4% vs 36.4% for the DPP's Chen Su-yueh, with independent Chiu Chien-fu at 12.7%. That is a roughly 17-point deficit in a KMT-held open seat. https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-tw/2026%E5%B9%B4%E4%B8%AD%E8%8F%AF%E6%B0%91%E5%9C%8B%E7%9B%B4%E8%BD%84%E5%B8%82%E9%95%B7%E5%8F%8A%E7%B8%A3%E5%B8%82%E9%95%B7%E9%81%B8%E8%88%89%E6%B0%91%E6%84%8F%E8%AA%BF%E6%9F%A5 - [2026-10-03] The Taipei Times column says Keelung's outgoing KMT administration was plagued by scandal and that the DPP "is looking strong this cycle" (snippet only; page returned 403 on fetch). It also says some KMT candidates are distancing themselves from Chair Cheng Li-wun over her "one China" line, a sign of intra-KMT friction. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/feat/archives/2026/10/03/2003865307 - [2026-09-26] Mechanism for a NO outcome: the DPP's path to a tie or plurality runs through KMT-held open seats. The 10 KMT open seats (Aug 28 count) have no incumbency protection. It needs a wave, as in 2014 (KMT 15 to 6, which the CSIS analysis described as a DPP win in 13 of 22). So a DPP plurality has precedent, and the 2014 swing was 7 DPP gains. https://www.csis.org/analysis/analysis-taiwans-nine-one-local-elections - [2026-10-13] Tie rule: the market's alphabetical tie-break favours the party "first in alphabetical order as listed in this market group". With "Democratic Progressive Party" listed before "Kuomintang", a tie (say 10-10) would plausibly resolve to the DPP, so the DPP needs only to equal the KMT. I could not confirm the actual listing order. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Taiwanese_local_elections - [2026-10-13] Timing is not a NO route in itself. The 11-28 vote falls just before trading close on 11-29 and certification is 12-04, and the rules allow resolution on available results up to 2027-06-30. A recount or a contested race could delay "official" status but is unlikely to flip the winner. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Taiwanese_local_elections BOTTOM LINE: The strongest NO case rests on the KMT defending 10 open seats, the DPP ahead in Changhua by roughly 17 points, a Yilan lead, and a New Taipei poll lead, plus Chiayi City and Hsinchu City falling outside the KMT column. Even then, the DPP needs about 10 or 11 wins, roughly twice its current 5, so this is a wave scenario, and I found no source forecasting it for the DPP. NOT FOUND: A rigorous non-partisan seat forecast putting the DPP at or above the KMT. The market-group listing order for the tie-break. The CEC's certified candidate list (due 10-16). The Yilan, Penghu, Keelung and Hsinchu County polls after August. The full Taipei Times pages (403).