Will average **gas prices** be above or below $4.40 by Dec 31, 2026? — Above $4.40

- [2026-10-12] The AAA Texas regular average, the resolution source, was $3.8186. That is $0.58 below the $4.40 strike. A week earlier it was $3.9052 and a month earlier $3.8549. The page lists Texas's record regular price as $4.6949 (2022-06-15). https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=TX - [2026-10-12] The AAA national average was $4.3556, down from $4.41 on Oct 1. AAA says this is the first year the national average has stayed above $4 in October. Fox 26 put Texas about 50 cents below the national average. https://fox26houston.com/money/texas-gas-prices-dip-national-average-remains-record-high-autumn - [2026-10-12] GasBuddy's Texas average was $3.78, down 9.9 cents on the week and $1.17 above a year ago. https://www.sansabanews.com/news/texas-weekly-gas-price-update-11 - [2026-10-01] AAA Texas reported a statewide average of $3.94 and a record September monthly average of $3.94 (previous record $3.63 in 2012). The all-time high is still $4.69 from June 2022. https://www.gilmermirror.com/2026/10/01/aaa-texas-texas-records-most-expensive-september-ever-for-gasoline/ - [2026-09 to 2026-10] The highest Texas regular figures I found for 2026 are about $3.93–$3.94 (mid-September and Oct 1). Earlier readings: $3.26 on Mar 15 and $3.82 on Apr 6. I found no 2026 Texas reading near $4.40. Sources: https://tx-aaa.iprsoftware.com/news/aaa-texas-september-record-looms-as-gas-prices-keep-climbing and https://dallasexpress.com/state/texas-gas-prices-surge-36-year-over-year-5th-highest-jump-in-nation/ - [2026-10-12] Brent was about $103–108 depending on the source. Fortune had $108.04 in the morning, and HDFC Sky reported Brent down 1.5% to $103 and WTI down 1.8% to $90.2 later that day. Cited reasons for the dip were a proposed Russia–Ukraine energy ceasefire and extra Russian diesel supply. Middle East risk persists. https://hdfcsky.com/news/brent-crude-oil-price-today-october-12-2026-brent-falls-1-5percent-to-103-wti-drops-1-8percent-to-90-2-middle-east-risks-persist - [2026-10-08] Brent bounced to near $106 after Trump said the US would not strike Iran before the midterms. The war with Iran and Strait of Hormuz disruption continue. AAA Texas said Hurricane Isaias appeared to be heading away from Texas refineries. https://www.ketk.com/news/texas/average-gas-price-falls-across-texas-despite-rise-in-oil-prices/ - [2026-10-12] Trump said Washington was considering joining Saudi strikes on the Houthis, which could escalate the region further. https://hdfcsky.com/news/brent-crude-oil-price-today-october-12-2026-brent-falls-1-5percent-to-103-wti-drops-1-8percent-to-90-2-middle-east-risks-persist - [2026-10-08] The national average was $4.36, down 5 cents on the week. The 2026 national peak was about $4.48–$4.55 in May. https://newsroom.aaa.com/2026/10/pump-prices-remain-at-record-highs-for-autumn/ and https://www.finder.com/economics/gas-prices - [2026-10-05] The EIA Texas weekly series was $3.929 (Sep 21), $3.841 (Sep 28) and $3.874 (Oct 5). The next EIA release is Oct 14. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/ - [2026-10-12] Several Texas metros are above $4 or near it: El Paso $4.3457 is the highest metro. The county range is up to $4.62, but no Texas metro has a regular average above $4.40. https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=TX - [2026-09-20] AAA Texas regular was $3.948 when the national average was $4.476, a gap of about $0.53. That gap has held through October. https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=TX&lv=true BOTTOM LINE: Texas regular is about $3.82, roughly 58 cents (about 15%) below the strike. The 2026 high is about $3.94, even with Brent above $100 and the national average above $4.30. Reaching a strictly greater-than-$4.40 AAA Texas reading by Dec 31 would need a large new shock, such as Hormuz escalation or a Gulf hurricane hitting refineries. Prices are currently drifting down, and seasonal demand is weakening. NOT FOUND: The exact Texas 2026 peak daily AAA value (AAA's own historical page was not fetched). Any official statement on whether "by Dec 31" means any day or Dec 31 only. Forward or futures-based gasoline price forecasts for Dec 2026.

- [2026-10-12] AAA's Texas regular average was $3.8186 on 10/12/26. That is $0.58 below the $4.40 strike. A week earlier it was $3.9052, a month earlier $3.8549, and a year earlier $2.6653. The AAA page lists the all-time Texas regular high as $4.6949 on 6/15/22, so no 2026 day has beaten it. https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=TX - [2026-10-12] The AAA national average was $4.3556, with Texas about 50 cents below it. AAA says this is the first year the national average has been above $4 in October. Texas has been about $0.50–0.55 below the national average. https://fox26houston.com/money/texas-gas-prices-dip-national-average-remains-record-high-autumn - [2026-10-06] LendingTree, using AAA data, puts the national average at $4.37 on 10/6, 2.5% below the May 2026 peak of $4.48. Monthly national averages were $3.93 in July, $4.06 in August and $4.36 in September. Texas was $3.90 on 10/6. For Texas to exceed $4.40, it would need to beat the national peak of this episode by a wide margin. https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-cards/study/us-gas-prices/ - [2026-10-08] AAA Texas reported $3.87, down 7 cents in a week, and said Texas was one of nine states under $4. Brent was near $106 amid the continuing Iran/Strait of Hormuz conflict, and Trump said the US would not strike Iran before the midterms. Crude is high but Texas retail is drifting down. https://www.ketk.com/news/texas/average-gas-price-falls-across-texas-despite-rise-in-oil-prices/ - [2026-10-05] GasBuddy has Texas at $3.88, unchanged on the week and up 22.9 cents on the month. It has the national average at $4.30. GasBuddy says Hormuz oil flows are rising, but refineries behind the Strait are not yet moving products fully. That keeps pump prices elevated relative to crude. https://www.gilmermirror.com/2026/10/05/texas-weekly-gas-price-update-240/ - [2026-10-07] The October EIA STEO (published about 10/7, per its own text) forecasts Brent at $105/b in 4Q26, $14 above the September STEO. It puts the 2026 US gasoline average at $3.91 (up from $3.84 in September) and the 2027 average at $3.56. September's national average was $4.35. The EIA sees continued disruption, but its annual figures imply a lower path ahead. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf - [2026-04-07] EIA's April STEO had projected 4Q26 US gasoline at $3.55, compared with the roughly $4.35 actually seen in September. Official forecasts have badly underestimated 2026. The same is true of GasBuddy's January call of $2.97 for 2026 and $2.83 for December. Both were made before the Iran shock. Forecaster track record in this regime is poor, and the errors ran toward prices rising. https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/eia-raises-usa-fuel-price-165930520.html - [2026-06-18] The national average fell below $4 on 6/18, for the first time since March 30. It was $4.515 a month earlier. The path has been volatile: above $4 from late March, a peak near $4.48–4.52 in May, below $4 in mid-June, back above $4.30 by September. Swings of $0.30–0.50 over 1–3 months have occurred this year. https://gasprices.aaa.com/national-average-drops-below-4-gallon-as-summer-travel-heats-up/ - [2026-09-20] AAA showed Texas at $3.9480 on 9/20, near the local high; AAA Texas called September the most expensive ever for Texas gasoline. A fox26 piece noted it was down to $3.82 by 10/12. The Texas 2026 high did not reach $4.40, since the all-time record from 2022 is untouched. I found no confirmed Texas daily figure above $4.40 this year. https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=TX&lv=true - [2026-10-12] Seasonal base rate: Texas retail gasoline normally falls from mid-October into December as the winter-grade blend arrives and demand eases. Within the window, the Texas weekly series ran 3.929 (9/21), 3.841 (9/28), 3.874 (10/5). The move required is +$0.58 (+15%) in under 11 weeks, in a series that has never exceeded $4.70. That is only possible with a fresh crude/crack-spread shock, such as Hormuz escalation or a refinery or hurricane outage. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/ - [2026-10-12] Reference class: Texas AAA regular has exceeded $4.40 only briefly, in May–July 2022, and not once so far in the 2026 shock. I did not compute a historical frequency from AAA data, but this is the only prior episode. Texas has never exceeded $4.70. The strike sits about 94% of the way from the current level to the all-time record. https://gasprices.aaa.com/state-gas-price-averages/ BOTTOM LINE: The outside view favors "No". Texas is at $3.82, about 58 cents below the strike. It has never been at $4.40 in 2026, and prices normally soften into December. The tail risk is a new Hormuz or refinery shock, and this year's forecast errors ran toward higher prices. NOT FOUND: Texas's 2026 peak AAA value (the March–May high), a historical frequency computed from AAA's Texas series, a Texas-specific forecast for December 2026, and a GasBuddy or other winter outlook updated after the Iran shock. I did not search for this contract's price or sibling-market odds.

YES means: AAA's Texas regular average is strictly above $4.40 on Dec 31, 2026, or at any point by then if the rules are read as "any day". Texas is at $3.82 now and has never been near $4.40 this year. - [2026-10-12] Regular RBOB futures were about $3.32 (Nov contract), against a 90-day high of $3.59 on Sep 23, so wholesale is not far from the September peak. At that peak Texas retail was only about $3.94. A YES needs RBOB to rise roughly 60–80 cents more, to about $3.9–4.1. That would match the diesel move already seen: ULSD was $4.69 on Oct 12 and diesel hit a record. Sources: https://energynewsbeat.co/diesel/trumps-energy-truce-hinges-on-russian-refineries-and-seven-senators-say-the-diesel-deal-defies-a-2022-law and https://fueldataportal.com/data/rbob-gasoline-price - [2026-10-12] The Global Energy Flow tracker (scenario weights, not a probabilistic model) puts 43% on escalation and 45% on a standoff, with a national year-end near $4.60 for the standoff and $6.10 for escalation. Only 12% goes to de-escalation, at $3.80. The tracker says the strait is effectively closed on Day 226. It counts at least seven vessels struck on Oct 1–11, and it reports US officials signalling airstrikes after the November midterms. Trump's Oct 8 pledge only covers the period before Nov 3. The site's own view is that regular is tracking between the base-case and escalation bands. This is a single OSINT site's judgement. https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/united-states/forecast/ - [2026-10-12] Mechanism for the Texas gap to close: if the national average reaches about $4.90–4.95, Texas would be near $4.40 at the usual gap of roughly 50–55 cents. That is about 55–60 cents above the national $4.36 now. The national average was $4.55 at its May 21 peak, so this would be about 35–40 cents above the 2026 high. Source: https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/united-states/forecast/ - [2026-10-08] The US-Iran pause is a political deadline, not a settlement. The tracker says Trump rejected Iran's renewed proposal around Oct 1, and that the "airstrikes probable after midterms" signal comes from Axios (Oct 2). A strike on Gulf export capacity after Nov 3 would leave about eight weeks for retail to respond before Dec 31. Source: https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/united-states/forecast/ - [2026-10-10] Stocks and refinery utilisation leave little buffer. The Daily Caller piece quotes Ellen Wald saying US refineries have run flat out and delayed maintenance. It says Gulf Coast refining is about 54% of US capacity, and that "any outages … will show up in regional gasoline prices immediately." Texas is the epicentre of any Gulf refinery outage. https://dailycaller.com/2026/10/10/hurricane-isaias-gulf-coast-refineries-fuel-inventories-strategic-petroleum-reserve-steve-milloy-ellen-wald/ - [2026-10-09] Hurricane Isaias is the live example of the refinery-outage route to YES, though it is forecast to miss the biggest hubs. Enverus's Carl Larry said a full refinery shutdown could mean "possible a dollar" in price jumps. GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan said the effect would be small, concentrated on the Gulf Coast, and not national. A Texas hit would need another storm; Texas refineries were not at risk from Isaias. https://www.click2houston.com/business/2026/10/09/hurricane-isaias-could-nudge-fuel-prices-higher-if-gulf-of-mexico-refineries-lose-power/ - [2026-09-21] GasBuddy's De Haan, in a Bulwark interview about three weeks before Oct 13, said refineries were near 98% utilisation and diesel stocks 15% below the five-year average. He warned there is very little room for another disruption heading into winter, and that there is "no magic date" when the problems end. Source: https://www.thebulwark.com/p/trumps-gas-price-problem-is-about - [2026-10-07] EIA's Oct STEO raised the 4Q26 Brent forecast to $105. By contrast, the September STEO had Brent near $90 for 2H26 and warned that Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb flows remain constrained. That is a $14 upward revision in a single month, which shows how quickly official forecasts have been moving up. The September document is at https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_text.pdf - [2026-07-07] EIA's July STEO expected a Hormuz reopening and about $3.60 gasoline for 2H26. The national average then rose from $3.79 on Jul 7 to $4.48 on Sep 28 (per the GEF tracker), so a reopening call was wrong within weeks. Forecasts of a fall have failed twice this year, which is the case that another reversal could happen. Sources: https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press590.php and https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/united-states/forecast/ - [2026-05-21] EIA's May STEO said a one-month delay in the strait reopening could add more than $20 a barrel to crude prices in the near term. Brent is now about $103–106, versus the $90 the September STEO assumed for 2H26. Source: https://mansfield.energy/2026/05/21/eia-outlook-signals-long-term-impact-from-strait-of-hormuz-disruptions/ - [2026-10-11] The national diesel average of about $6.20 (record $6.53 on Sep 22) and distillate stocks about 13% below the five-year average could pull gasoline up if refiners shift yields toward diesel in winter. The tracker's base case says regular "edges up" for this reason. I did not find an independent source for the yield-shift mechanism. https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/united-states/forecast/ BOTTOM LINE: The single most likely YES path is a post-midterm (after Nov 3) US or Israeli strike or tanker attack that takes Gulf export capacity or the Saudi Red Sea bypass offline. That would push Brent to $120 or more and national regular to about $4.90 or higher by December, with thin refinery and distillate buffers amplifying it. It needs roughly +58 cents in Texas, about 35–40 cents above any 2026 level, so it is a tail outcome, not the baseline. NOT FOUND: A Texas-specific price forecast for December. RBOB futures for Dec 2026 and Jan 2027 (only front-month Oct 2 and Oct 12 figures). Any independent confirmation of the tracker's scenario weights. Whether "by Dec 31" means any day or Dec 31 only.

YES means: the AAA Texas regular-gasoline average is strictly greater than $4.40 at some point by Dec 31, 2026. I read the rules literally and did not find a statement on whether "by Dec 31" means any day or only Dec 31. - [2026-10-12] Texas has to rise about 58 cents, and the national average is already far above its seasonal norm without Texas coming close. The national average was $4.36 on Oct 11, but Texas sat at about $3.82–3.94, roughly $0.50 below it. Even the national peak of $4.55 on May 21 left Texas below $4.40. For Texas to print above $4.40, the national average would probably have to reach about $4.90–5.00. That is above any 2026 reading. https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/united-states/forecast/ - [2026-10-12] The most bearish scenario I found still doesn't clearly reach the strike for Texas. A single OSINT site (an outlier, not a consensus) puts its December national average at $3.80 / $4.60 / $6.10 for de-escalation / standoff / escalation. It weights these 12% / 45% / 43%, and the weights are its own judgment, not a statistical forecast. Its base-case $4.60 national figure minus the usual Texas discount of about $0.50 gives about $4.10, which is below $4.40. Only the escalation case, with Brent at $120+ and an infrastructure strike, clears the strike. https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/united-states/forecast/ - [2026-10-12] The pump has lagged crude upward and downward. The national average eased from $4.48 on Sep 28 to $4.36 on Oct 11 after the G7 released 100 Mbbl on Oct 2, even though Brent rose about 2.4% in the week to Oct 9. The tightness is in distillate (stocks about 13% below the five-year average), not gasoline or crude. Diesel is already easing from its $6.53 record. Gasoline is therefore not the bottleneck. https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/united-states/forecast/ - [2026-10-06] Hormuz crude flows are recovering without a deal. Flows averaged about 10.3 mb/d in the week to Oct 3, about 23% below the prewar 13.5 mb/d (Kpler), with a US-escorted route along Oman's coast. The risk is that Iranian attacks on tankers, running at about 2 per 100 transits, could break that route. Even so, the current supply response has kept Brent near $100 rather than $120+. Analysts expect the market to adapt to "sustained insecurity" rather than spiral. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/06/crude-oil-tanker-strait-hormuz-iran-attack.html - [2026-10-12] There is a political lid on near-term escalation. The OSINT site says Trump pledged on Oct 8 not to strike Iran before the Nov 3 midterms, and that US officials signal airstrikes are probable after them. That leaves about 8 weeks (Nov 3 to Dec 31) for a shock to pass through to retail, and retail lags wholesale by 1–3 weeks. This is also the same administration that cut the strategic reserve to a 1982 low, so the buffer for a repeat is thinner. Both points cut in different directions. https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/united-states/forecast/ - [2026-10-08] Texas retail is drifting down, and a hurricane threat has passed. AAA Texas said Hurricane Isaias was heading away from Texas refineries as of Oct 8. Texas was $3.87 that day, 7 cents lower on the week and one of nine states under $4. That is the main Texas-specific upside risk (Gulf refinery outage), and it is fading as the hurricane season winds down. https://www.newschannel6now.com/2026/10/08/aaa-texas-reports-gas-prices-drop-across-state/ - [2026-10-16 (prior year)] Seasonal precedent: AAA Texas's Oct 16, 2025 release headlined "Gas Prices Fall for Second Straight Week as Demand Dips and Cheaper Winter Fuel Hits the Market." The Oct 2025 weekly figures were $2.75 and then $2.70, and November was flat. Switching to cheaper winter-blend gasoline lowers retail prices in autumn without any change in crude. http://tx-aaa.iprsoftware.com/news?c=20289&page=5 - [2026-10-12] The Texas ceiling has held all year. The Texas high in this war has been about $3.94–3.95, in Oct 1–7 readings and on a September monthly basis of $3.94. Even the Labor Day Texas figure of $3.68 compares with Brewster County, the priciest county, at $4.43. A single county exceeding $4.40 is not a statewide average, and the El Paso metro peak is $4.34. A statewide reading above $4.40 would be a new 2026 record by about 45 cents. https://www.fox7austin.com/money/labor-day-travel-2026-texas-gas-prices - [2026-10-12] Wholesale futures show no December spike. I could not retrieve a live December RBOB quote. A snapshot I found shows front-month RBOB near $3.27–3.31, which is undated and stale. Even a $3.31 wholesale price plus about $0.57 of taxes (a rule of thumb) gives about $3.88 retail, near today's Texas price and not $4.40. The December contract was not shown. https://www.investing.com/commodities/gasoline-rbob - [2026-10-06] Forecasters' errors this year ran toward higher prices, but that cuts against a "forecasts say lower" argument. GasBuddy's January call of $2.83 for December was made before the war (Feb 28). The Oct EIA STEO's $3.91 2026 US average and $3.56 2027 average imply easing from here. Neither gives a case for a Texas average above $4.40. https://www.rigzone.com/news/gasbuddy_reveals_2026_usa_gasoline_price_forecast-14-jan-2026-182765-article/ - [2026-10-12] The war has run 227 days without taking Texas above $4.40, through a failed ceasefire (collapsed Jul 8), a US blockade of Iranian ports, and Hormuz closure to about 3% of prewar transits. A Texas reading above $4.40 would need something beyond what has happened so far in this war. https://www.iransitrep.com/ BOTTOM LINE: No is the default. Texas is about $0.58 below the strike with prices drifting lower into the winter-blend season, and no scenario short of a severe new escalation or Gulf refinery outage gets it there. The war has produced a Texas high of only about $3.95 in 227 days. NOT FOUND: A readable AAA Texas page (it returned 403 to me) and the Texas 2026 daily peak. A current December RBOB futures quote. Any official AAA wording on "by Dec 31" (any day or only Dec 31).