Will RDU’s total passenger traffic for 2026 be above 16.25 million?

- [2026-10-13] I found no 2026 year-to-date or monthly RDU passenger totals in any source I could open. The rdu.com statistics page returned 404 or "Page Not Found" when fetched. A search snippet of it showed only annual figures, with 2025 as the latest year. https://www.rdu.com/airport-authority/statistics/ - [2026-01 snippet] The resolution source's "Passengers by Year" table showed 2025 at 15,644,658 total (7,832,695 enplaned and 7,811,963 deplaned). That is a record, up about 1.1% from 2024's 15,475,466. A 2026 row was not visible. https://www.rdu.com/airport-authority/statistics/ - [2026-10-13] The 16.25M threshold is about 3.9% above 2025's total, which is roughly 605,000 more passengers. 2025 growth was only about 1.1%, and 2024 growth was 6.5%. https://www.rdu.com/airport-authority/statistics/ - [2026-01-14] Through November 2025, RDU had about 14.3M passengers, up about 1% year over year. This shows growth slowed sharply in 2025. https://airserviceone.com/delta-overtakes-american-as-raleigh-durhams-top-airline-80-non-stop-destinations-in-2026/ - [2026-01-14] Cirium schedule data for Jan–Jun 2026 showed Delta seats up 5% and American down 4% versus H1 2025. Breeze had doubled its presence. Southwest was to end Atlanta service in early March. https://airserviceone.com/delta-overtakes-american-as-raleigh-durhams-top-airline-80-non-stop-destinations-in-2026/ - [2026-06-23] BTS data (US flights only, 12 months ending March 2026) showed scheduled enplanements at RDU up about 0.85% on arrivals versus the prior 12-month period. That is well under the growth needed to pass 16.25M. https://www.transtats.bts.gov/airports.asp?20=E&Nv42146=eQh&Nv42146_anzr=enyrvtu%2FQ74unz%2C+aP%3A+enyrvtu-Q74unz+V06r40n6v10ny&pn44vr4=SNPgf - [2026 spring, undated] The Airport Authority board approved a $514M budget for the fiscal year starting April 1, 2026. The release says forecasts are "approaching over 16 million passengers annually". That is a forward forecast, and it falls short of 16.25M. https://www.rdu.com/newsroom/press-releases - [2026-05] May 10 and May 11 were the 2nd and 4th busiest single days on record, with over 32,000 security screenings each. Total passengers for those two days were over 220,000. https://www.rdu.com/newsroom/press-releases - [2026-09-09] Volaris announced nonstop service to Guadalajara starting Oct 16, 2026, three times a week. RDU will then have a record 91 nonstop destinations on 19 airlines. A Dublin route (Aer Lingus, 5 times a week, A321XLR) was also announced for 2026. These are small additions to the total. https://www.rdu.com/newsroom/press-releases - [2026-07-17] Terminal 2 expansion construction is ongoing, and the release says it has no impact on travel. https://www.rdu.com/newsroom/press-releases - [Unknown date] Road Genius (a third-party site) said 2025's busiest months were July at 1.48M, June at 1.45M and October at 1.44M. It gave no 2026 data. https://roadgenius.com/statistics/airports/usa/raleigh-durham-rdu-airport/ BOTTOM LINE: The latest hard evidence is 2025 at 15.64M and 2025 growth of about 1%. BTS data to March 2026 shows growth under 1%, and the airport's own forecast is "over 16 million", so 16.25M would need about 3.9% growth. I found no 2026 monthly actuals, so I cannot confirm the current pace. NOT FOUND: 2026 monthly or year-to-date RDU passenger totals (Jan–Aug 2026), Airport Authority board monthly traffic reports for 2026, any press release on 2026 traffic trends from the last 14 days, and a 2026 row in the official "Passengers by Year" table.

- [2026-01 (RDU stats page)] RDU's official Passengers by Year totals are: 2015 10,015,244; 2016 11,049,143; 2017 11,653,693; 2018 12,801,697; 2019 14,218,621; 2020 4,883,913; 2021 8,795,128; 2022 11,842,330; 2023 14,523,996; 2024 15,475,466; 2025 15,644,658. The 2025 figure is the latest on the page. https://www.rdu.com/airport-authority/statistics/ (from search snippet; the page returned 404 and empty on direct fetch) - [2026-10-13, calculated] The 16.25M threshold needs about +3.9% growth over 2025's 15,644,658 (an increase of about 605k). The 2025 gain was only +1.1%, and 2024's was +6.5%. Source: the RDU table above. - [Historical base rate, calculated] Excluding the 2020 and 2021 pandemic years, annual growth was: 2016 +10.4%, 2017 +5.6%, 2018 +9.9%, 2019 +11.1%, 2022 +34.6%, 2023 +22.6%, 2024 +6.5%, 2025 +1.1%. Growth has exceeded 3.9% in every non-pandemic year except 2025, but it is decelerating sharply. https://www.rdu.com/airport-authority/statistics/ - [2026-01-14] Air Service One reported that January–November 2025 traffic was about 14.3M, up about 1% year over year. It also reported that Delta's first-half 2026 seats are up 5% and American's down 4%, with Breeze having doubled its presence. https://airserviceone.com/delta-overtakes-american-as-raleigh-durhams-top-airline-80-non-stop-destinations-in-2026/ - [2026-06-23] BTS data (US scheduled flights only) for the 12 months ending March 2026 shows RDU arrivals at 7,326k versus 7,264k a year earlier, up 0.85%. That is a much lower pace than the +3.9% needed. https://www.transtats.bts.gov/airports.asp?20=E&Nv42146=eQh&Nv42146_anzr=enyrvtu%2FQ74unz%2C+aP%3A+enyrvtu-Q74unz+V06r40n6v10ny&pn44vr4=SNPgf - [2026 (FY2026-27 budget release, undated; approved before the fiscal year began April 1)] The Airport Authority said RDU is seeing record demand, with forecasts "approaching over 16 million passengers annually". That is an official outlook below 16.25M and not tied to a specific year. https://www.rdu.com/newsroom/press-releases - [2026-05] RDU recorded two of its top-10 busiest days on May 10–11, with more than 32,000 screened each day. This is anecdotal evidence of strength. https://www.rdu.com/newsroom/press-releases - [2026-09-09] Volaris launches Guadalajara service on Oct 16, bringing RDU to a record 91 nonstop destinations on 19 airlines. It adds only a small amount of seats late in the year. https://www.rdu.com/newsroom/press-releases - [2026-09 (approx.)] A Coinbase/Kalshi listing for the same event shows a sibling strike at 16.00M ("KXRDUVISITS-27FEB28"). This confirms the market ladder and that the resolution source is the RDU Passengers by Year → Total figure. I did not look up prices. https://www.coinbase.com/predictions/event/KXRDUVISITS-27FEB28 - [2025-12-31] RDU's year-end release projected about 15.5M for 2025, and the actual figure came in higher at 15.64M. The airport's projections have therefore been slightly conservative. https://www.rdu.com/rdu-celebrates-2025-launches-into-2026/ - [2026-10-13] Terminal 2 landside expansion and the runway rebuild are under construction. The Terminal 2 expansion is expected to complete in late 2027. Press materials say there is no impact on travel. https://www.rdu.com/newsroom/press-releases BOTTOM LINE: The outside view is that 16.25M needs about +3.9% growth. That is above the 2025 pace (+1.1%) and the BTS trailing-12-month pace (about +0.9%), and above the airport's own "approaching 16 million" outlook. It is well below the 2016–2024 growth rates, so it is plausible only if 2026 growth re-accelerated markedly; I found no 2026 year-to-date data to show that. NOT FOUND: RDU's 2026 monthly or year-to-date passenger totals (the stats page would not load, and no monthly 2026 press releases surfaced). Also not found: any third-party forecast for RDU 2026 totals, and the exact date of the FY2026-27 budget release.

YES means: RDU's official "Passengers by Year → Total" figure for calendar 2026 is published above 16,250,000, which is more than 3.9% above 2025's 15,644,658. I found no 2026 year-to-date or monthly RDU totals. Pages I could actually read were the WRAL and RDU/BTS search snippets. The RDU statistics page and the Simple Flying page would not load when fetched. So the case below rests on capacity and demand signals, not on actual 2026 traffic. - [2026-10-13] The RDU statistics page header (in a search snippet; the page itself would not load) listed a 2026 column with an August selector. That implies monthly 2026 data exists on the resolution source, but I could not read it. https://www.rdu.com/airport-authority/statistics/ - [2026 Q2, Simple Flying, search snippet] Breeze's RDU flights rose from 1,802 in Q2 2025 to 3,282 in Q2 2026, up 82%. Breeze added 12 routes in total. RDU is now Breeze's busiest airport, ahead of Orlando. This is the strongest mechanism for a jump. Breeze's 36 routes and 396k H1 seats were already known (Jan 14 report), but this adds the Q2 flight growth. https://simpleflying.com/this-is-breezes-new-busiest-airport-is-it-where-you-think/ - [2026-05-06] Breeze launched five more RDU routes that week: Bangor, Stewart-Newburgh, Vero Beach, San Antonio and Madison. All are low-frequency. This stacks onto the Q2 growth above. https://www.wral.com/news/local/breeze-airways-rdu-new-routes-may-2026/ - [2026-07-02] Breeze added Tallahassee (from July 2) and Birmingham (from July 3), so Breeze capacity growth carried into the peak summer season. About 102 days before today, WRAL reported this. https://www.wral.com/news/local/budget-airline-two-new-flights-rdu-july-2026/ - [2026-05] Breeze opened a crew base at RDU in March 2026, with 200+ jobs and 32 routes, including Punta Cana and Montego Bay. This is a secondary guide, not a primary source. https://aifly.one/2026/05/rdu-airport-guide/ - [2026-03 budget release] The Airport Authority's wording is "approaching over 16 million". That is vague, and RDU's own 2025 projection of about 15.5M came in low versus the actual 15.64M (per the Dec 31 release). A similar conservative miss in 2026 would be needed to reach 16.25M. https://www.rdu.com/airport-authority-board-passes-514-million-budget/ - [2025 base, Wikipedia citing RDU] 2025 was 15,644,658. A 2025 monthly timeline is not available. Late-2025 launches such as Key West, Manchester and Portsmouth on Breeze mean 2026 gets full-year effects that 2025 did not. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raleigh%E2%80%93Durham_International_Airport - [2026-05-21] The May 10–11 peak days (over 220,000 passengers across the two days) were described by the Board Chair as "strong spring travel numbers". https://www.rdu.com/newsroom/press-releases - [Path to YES] The path needs three things: (1) Breeze's roughly 80% flight growth in Q2 translates into about 10%+ passenger growth in the second and third quarters; (2) the Delta +5% seat growth offsets American's −4% and Southwest's Atlanta exit; and (3) H2 growth runs near 5–6% against a flat early 2026. Every one of these is plausible but unconfirmed. Breeze load factors on thin routes are lower than the mainline average. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case is the Breeze surge (flights up 82% in Q2 2026, with new routes into July) plus the airport's record 91 nonstop destinations. Together these could lift growth in the second half of 2026 well above the 2025 pace of 1.1%, but none of the evidence I found shows 2026 actual totals near the +3.9% needed. NOT FOUND: Any 2026 monthly or year-to-date RDU passenger totals. The 2026 row in "Passengers by Year" was also not found. I also found no Airport Authority statement of 2026 growth rates, no TSA throughput comparisons, and no seat-capacity totals for RDU for H2 2026.

YES means: RDU's official "Passengers by Year → Total" for calendar 2026 is reported above 16,250,000. - [2026-10-13] The best new run-rate evidence is T-100 data, not RDU's own statistics, and it implies growth below the 3.9% needed. The Frequent Flier site, citing US DOT T-100, shows a trailing-12-month total (Aug 2025–Jul 2026) of about 15.7M, with 2025 at 15,444,608 on the same basis. The gap is about +0.26M, roughly +2–3% on the Jan–Jul base (my calculation). Applied to RDU's own 2025 figure, that pace gives about 16.0–16.1M, below 16.25M. Caveat: the "2026 so far" figure (9,030,543) has no stated cut-off month, so this is an inference. https://thefrequentflier.com/flight-deck/airports/rdu - [2026-10-13] T-100 totals run about 1.3% below RDU's official total (15,444,608 vs 15,644,658 for 2025). Official RDU counts are therefore a little higher than T-100 counts, but a 2026 growth rate on the T-100 basis carries over roughly one-for-one. The T-100 series shows no sign of a 4% surge. https://thefrequentflier.com/flight-deck/airports/rdu - [2026-10-13] Seat growth is concentrated in a few carriers and offset by cuts. Seats year on year: Delta +5.7%, Frontier +7.1%, American −5.3%, Southwest −2.5%, United +0.4%. American and Southwest together are about 36% of passengers. The net effect is low single digits, not 4%. https://thefrequentflier.com/flight-deck/airports/rdu - [2026-10-13] Departures by month over the trailing year peaked at about 6.5K in May 2026. Only a modest seasonal rise is visible, with no step-change in flying. Delta's JFK cuts and the Nov 21 Fort Myers restoration (one daily CRJ-900) are marginal. https://thefrequentflier.com/flight-deck/airports/rdu - [2026-09-30] The IATA August 2026 report shows demand softening in North America. North American carriers' traffic fell 2.2% year on year in August, a fourth straight month of contraction. US domestic RPK fell 2.9% in August, steeper than July's −0.6%, and US domestic year-to-date is −0.3%. A 4% RDU gain would run against a flat-to-negative national domestic market. https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/air-passenger-market-analysis-august-2026/ - [2026-10-13] The IATA report also shows Middle East disruption (a conflict from March to June) and higher jet fuel costs. It says seat capacity is projected to grow only +1.6% in September and +2.0% in October. Load factors are falling as capacity outpaces demand. This points to capacity discipline, not an acceleration. https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/air-passenger-market-analysis-august-2026/ - [2026-02-28] WestJet confirmed it will not resume Calgary–RDU, citing weaker Canadian demand for US travel. The route is a small loss, but it shows transborder weakness. https://thepointsguy.com/news/westjet-us-route-cuts-raleigh-durham - [2026-09 (approx.)] Third-party guides still describe RDU as serving "over 15 million" passengers and 91 nonstop destinations. Nothing outside the airport's own "approaching over 16 million" forecast supports 16.25M. https://thisisraleigh.com/raleigh-durham-international-airport/ - [2026-10-13] Resolution mechanics point to NO by default. The rdu.com statistics page has no 2026 annual total yet; it renders "Page Not Found" through the browser. The 2026 total will only be published after year-end, and the market closes 2027-02-28. If the Authority has not posted a 2026 row by then, nothing shows the total is above 16.25M. RDU's own year-end release last year was a projection (about 15.5M) that undershot the actual total. A similar release this year would be the likely source. https://www.rdu.com/airport-authority/statistics/ - [2026-10-13] The cushion is thin on the YES side. On the T-100 trailing basis, the 2026 total needs growth well above the roughly 2–3% pace through July. That would require a Q4 2026 surge of about 8% or more over Q4 2025 to close the gap, with no capacity to support it (my calculation). Late-year additions are small: the Oct 16 Volaris service three times a week and the Nov 21 Delta Fort Myers flight. https://thefrequentflier.com/flight-deck/airports/rdu BOTTOM LINE: The evidence points to 2026 landing around 15.9–16.1M. That is about +2–3% on 2025, below the +3.9% the 16.25M threshold needs. National domestic demand is flat to negative, and the airport's own forecast is only "over 16 million". The main risk to this case is that the T-100 "2026 so far" cut-off month and the trailing-12-month figure are uncertain, so growth could be somewhat higher than I inferred. NOT FOUND: RDU's official 2026 monthly or year-to-date totals (the stats page would not load), the cut-off month of the T-100 "2026 so far" figure, any RDU board traffic report for mid-2026, and any third-party 2026 full-year forecast for RDU.