Will Vermont’s maple syrup production for 2027 be above 2.9 million gallons?

- [2026-06-11] NASS reported Vermont's 2026 maple syrup production at 3.091 million gallons, with 8.2 million taps and a yield of 0.377 gal/tap. This is the latest figure on the resolution source and is 191,000 gal above the 2.9M strike. https://agriculture.vermont.gov/2026-vermont-maple-season-production-once-again-leads-nation - [2026-06-11] The UVM Extension page, which mirrors NASS, shows Vermont at 3,091,000 gal (53% of the US total of 5,877,000) and a yield of 0.377. https://www.uvm.edu/extension/maple-statistics - [2026-06-11] The 2026 crop was up 2.7% on 2025, with the same tap count as 2025 as reported by WCAX. The 2025 figure was 3.009M as revised. https://www.wcax.com/2026/06/11/vermont-maple-syrup-production-up-slightly-2026/ and https://vermontbiz.com/news/2026/june/11/2026-vermont-maple-season-production-leads-nation - [2025-06-12] The initial 2025 estimate was 3.06M gal, from 8.35M taps and a yield of 0.367. It was later revised down to 3.009M. https://vermontbiz.com/news/2025/june/12/2025-vermont-maple-season-production-over-3-million-gallons-again - NASS history for Vermont: 2022 was 3.264M (record), 2023 was 2.608M, 2024 was 3.108M, 2025 was 3.009M (revised) and 2026 was 3.091M. Only 2023 fell below 2.9M in this window. The same sources show 2021 was about 1.54M by the older series, and the series has since been rebenchmarked. https://vermontbiz.com/news/2025/june/12/2025-vermont-maple-season-production-over-3-million-gallons-again - [2026-04-19] The Vermont Agriculture Secretary estimated about 3M gal for 2026 before the NASS release. Sugarmakers reported a range of results, with some records. https://vtdigger.org/2026/04/19/some-sugarmakers-break-records-though-a-range-of-results-reported-across-vermont/ - Tap counts have drifted down, from 8.4M in 2024 to 8.35M in 2025 to 8.2M in 2026. This is a mild headwind. Yield per tap has been 0.367–0.377 recently. https://www.themaplenews.com/story/us-crop-a-near-record-59-million-gallons/566/ - Schedule: The 2027 Maple Open House Weekend is March 20–21, 2027. https://vermontmaple.org/visit/maple-open-house-weekend - Schedule: NASS publishes the maple figure in the June Crop Production report. The 2024 report was posted June 12 and the 2025 report was around June 12. The 2026 report came out June 11. The 2027 release is likely around June 10–12, before the 2027-06-30 close. I did not find the official 2027 date. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/New_England_includes/Publications/Current_News_Release/2025/2025-Maple-Syrup-Survey.pdf - As of 2026-10-13 nothing about the 2027 season exists yet. Tapping starts in winter 2026–27. Weather in January–April 2027 will drive the result. BOTTOM LINE: The latest NASS figure, 3.091M gal, is above the 2.9M threshold, and Vermont has exceeded 2.9M in 3 of the last 4 years (2022, 2024, 2025, 2026; only 2023 missed). The 2027 outcome is not known yet and depends on the 2027 sap season and the June 2027 NASS release. NOT FOUND: The official 2027 NASS release date. Any 2027 season forecast. A 2027 tap-count survey.

- [2026-06-11] NASS's first print of Vermont's 2026 crop was 3.091M gal, from 8.2M taps at 0.377 gal/tap. That is 191k (about 6.6%) above the 2.9M strike. The state said this followed two years of similar output. https://agriculture.vermont.gov/agency-agriculture-food-markets-news/2026-vermont-maple-season-production-once-again-leads-nation - [2026-06-11] The 2026 year-on-year gain was 2.7%, on an unchanged tap count. Yield rose from 0.367 to 0.377 gal/tap. U.S. production was a near-record 5.877M gal. https://www.themaplenews.com/story/us-crop-a-near-record-59-million-gallons/566/ - [2026-06-12] Recent Vermont NASS series: 2022 about 3.26M (record, revised), 2023 2.608M (revised), 2024 3.108M, 2025 about 3.0–3.06M, 2026 3.091M. One outlet gives 2025 as 3.009M, which is probably a revision of the first-print 3.06M. https://vermontbiz.com/news/2025/june/12/2025-vermont-maple-season-production-over-3-million-gallons-again - [2023-06] Revisions can be large. The first print for 2023 was 2.05M gal, down 20% from 2022, with 6.35M taps and 0.322 gal/tap. It was later restated to 2.608M. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/New_England_includes/Publications/Current_News_Release/2023/Vermont-2023-Maple-Production.pdf - [2022-06] The first print for 2022 was about 2.5M gal, called a record at the time. It had 6.65M taps and 0.383 gal/tap. It was later revised to 3.264M. https://agriculture.vermont.gov/agency-agriculture-food-markets-news/vermont-sugar-season-sweet-success - [Base rate] The first-print values were 2.55M (2022), 2.05M (2023), 3.108M (2024), 3.06M (2025) and 3.091M (2026). Only the last three exceeded 2.9M, which is 3 of 5. Using the revised series, 4 of 5 exceeded it, and 2023 is the only miss since 2022. The three most recent years were each within about 3% of 3.1M. - [2026-06-11] The tap count has plateaued or slipped: 8.4M in 2024, 8.35M in 2025, 8.2M in 2026. Production therefore depends mainly on yield per tap, which has ranged from 0.322 (2023) to 0.383 (2022) in recent years. At 8.2M taps, 2.9M gal needs about 0.354 gal/tap. That is below each of the last three years (0.367–0.377) but above 2023's 0.322. https://www.uvm.edu/extension/maple-statistics - [2026-04-21] The 2026 season started late, with sap flowing in March instead of February. Results varied by region, some producers set single-day records, and no "horror stories" were reported. The weather mix was still good enough for a slightly higher crop. https://vnews.com/2026/04/21/vermont-maple-syrup-production/ - [2025-01-31] The Vermont Maple Sugar Makers' Association says NASS generally undercounts producers. NASS data show 465% growth in Vermont production over 20 years. It also flags tariff and equipment-cost risks from Canada. https://legislature.vermont.gov/Documents/2026/Workgroups/House%20Agriculture/Farming/Maple/W~Allison%20Hope~Vermont%20Maple%20Syrup%20Makers%20Association%20Introduction~1-31-2025.pdf - [2026-06-11] Timing: NASS releases the maple estimate each June (June 11, 2026; June 12, 2025). The 2027 figure should therefore be published around mid-June 2027, before the 2027-06-30 close. https://vermontbiz.com/news/2026/june/11/2026-vermont-maple-season-production-leads-nation - [2026-10-13] Some pages cite 2022 Census of Agriculture figures (3,153,026 gal) as the "2026" production. They are not the NASS annual survey series. https://statspanda.com/maple-syrup-production-by-state BOTTOM LINE: The reference class favors YES. Three straight first prints sit near 3.1M, giving a roughly 6–7% cushion above the 2.9M strike. The main risk is a poor-yield year like 2023, when the first print fell 20% and was below 2.9M, plus a gently shrinking tap count. Because the question uses the first NASS print for 2027, later revisions are unlikely to matter. NOT FOUND: Any pre-season forecast or expert estimate for 2027 Vermont production, 2027 tap-count intentions, and an exact first-release date for the 2027 NASS report. I also did not look for other markets on this event.

YES means: USDA NASS's published 2027 Vermont maple syrup production figure (Maple Syrup → Production → Gallons) is strictly above 2,900,000 gallons. - [2026-06-11] The 2026 crop was a high-yield year even though the winter was hard. Vermont had its coldest winter since 2014-15, deep snow and a late start, and the 2026 crop was still 3.091M gal. In the Vermont Maple Sugar Makers' Association (VMSMA) crop survey, 41% of producers called the season average and 37% called it above average or record. Only 23% reported below average. A season with a late start and large runs on March 16 cleared the strike by 191k gal. That suggests YES does not need a good year. https://www.themaplenews.com/story/us-crop-a-near-record-59-million-gallons/566/ - [2026-06-11] Statewide acreage also rose. Vermont reported more maple acreage in 2026. Taps held at 8.2M, and the national tap count fell 1%. The state's productive base is intact, with more land and an unchanged tap count. https://www.themaplenews.com/story/us-crop-a-near-record-59-million-gallons/566/ - [2024-06-12] The NASS regional table shows the one sub-2.9M year in the 2022–2024 window, 2023, came from the lowest yield, 0.322 gal/tap. That was on a 8.1M-tap base. Yields were 0.384 in 2022 and 0.370 in 2024. The 2.9M strike needs only about 0.354 on 8.2M taps. Even with taps at 8.1M, 0.358 would suffice. https://data.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/New_England_includes/Publications/Current_News_Release/2024/Northeast-2024-Maple-Syrup.pdf - [2024-06-12] NASS's 2024 restatement put 2022 at 3,264k and 2023 at 2,608k, so the revised series has a floor-like cluster. Vermont's sap sales fell from 8.4M gal in 2023 to 10.7M gal in 2025 (UVM page), which suggests more sap is entering the supply chain. Bulk sales are the main outlet, at 2,209k gal in 2023. This points to commercial-scale infrastructure that makes output less weather-fragile. https://www.uvm.edu/extension/maple-statistics - [2026-03-06] Technology is raising yield per tap. Producers are adding lateral lines and vacuum systems. A UVM source says weather warming has largely not hurt syrup production, which continues to rise in Vermont. The caveat is an abnormally warm March or April. https://vnews.com/2026/03/06/maple-sugaring-season-hopeful/ - [2026-06-11] The 2026 yield of 0.377 was above the 2025 0.367, and the US yield rose to 0.357 from 0.342 in each of the two prior years. NASS-reported yields have moved in the same direction in the neighbours, such as NY (0.307 to 0.340) and Maine (0.312 to 0.366). Those states' sharp gains suggest the 2026 improvement was broad rather than a Vermont-only fluke. https://www.themaplenews.com/story/us-crop-a-near-record-59-million-gallons/566/ - [2026-10-09] NASS Crop Production is a monthly report whose scope includes maple syrup. The 2026 June release was on June 11 (ESMIS). The 2026 report notes that price and value for 2026 will come in the June 2027 report, which confirms a June 2027 release. A June release gives time before the 2027-06-30 close. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/crop-production - [2026-06-11] The prerequisites for the single likeliest YES path are: - Tapping stays near 8.1–8.2M. - A normal Feb–Apr freeze-thaw cycle gives yield of at least about 0.355 gal/tap. - NASS keeps its current methodology. - That is the same outcome as 2024, 2025 and 2026, so it needs no new assumption. https://agriculture.vermont.gov/agency-agriculture-food-markets-news/2026-vermont-maple-season-production-once-again-leads-nation BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case is persistence. The last three NASS prints cleared 2.9M by 6–7%, and 2026 did so through a late, snowy and erratic season. YES needs only a roughly normal 2027 season (yield ≥ about 0.355 on ~8.2M taps), while the one recent failure (2023, 0.322) was an outlier. NOT FOUND: Any 2027 pre-season forecast or tap-count intentions, the official June 2027 NASS release date, and any 2026 post-season NASS revision of Vermont's figure.

YES means: NASS's reported 2027 Vermont maple syrup production (Crop Production, June 2027) is above 2,900,000 gallons. - [2023-06-09] The 2023 first print was 2.05M gal, from 6.35M taps at 0.322 gal/tap. Vermont first prints were then re-benchmarked: by the 2024 release, 2022 had become 3.264M (from 2.554M), 2023 became 2.608M, and the 2023 tap count rose from 6.35M to 8.1M. Revisions here can move 25%+, so the first-print history is a weak guide. The question's text points to the live NASS page, which may show a revised or re-benchmarked series rather than the June 2027 first print. https://data.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/New_England_includes/Publications/Current_News_Release/2024/Northeast-2024-Maple-Syrup.pdf - [2026-06-11] The Maple News gives two NASS facts. First, US taps fell to 16.47M, about 4% below 2024. Second, US yield per tap rose to 0.357 from 0.342 in both of the previous two years. The 2026 Vermont gain therefore came from yield above its recent mean. It was not a tap increase. A yield reversion to 0.367 (the 2025 value) on a further-shrunken tap base would leave 2027 close to the strike. https://www.themaplenews.com/stories/season-summaries/2/all/ - [2026-06-11] Vermont's tap count held at 8.2M in 2026, but it stood at 8.35M in 2025 and 8.4M in 2024. A continued decline of about 150k taps per year, to roughly 8.05M, would put the break-even yield at about 0.360 gal/tap. The 2025 yield of 0.367 clears that by only 0.007 gal/tap, or 2%. 2026's 0.377 was the best of the last three years. This is arithmetic from the figures above, not a source forecast. https://www.themaplenews.com/stories/season-summaries/2/all/ - [2026-03-06] UVM Extension maple specialist Mark Isselhardt says yield "depends on the daily forecast" and that a really abnormal March or April warm spell could significantly hurt yield. So no pre-season signal exists, and the weather risk is real. https://vnews.com/2026/03/06/maple-sugaring-season-hopeful/ - [2026-03-25] A Boston Globe piece says producers have "no indication" of yield other than the weather. It notes Vermont has warmed about 3°F since 1900 and that a 2012 heat wave cut the season short. It also frames technology as the offset, which means the downside weather tail is mitigated, not removed. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/03/25/science/vermont-maple-climate-change/ - [2025-02-13] The 2025 season began poorly (cold, locked-up trees, "drips and drabs"). That year still printed about 3.06M, which shows how much cushion the technology buffer provides. It also means one more bad-start year is not enough by itself to produce a NO. https://www.themaplenews.com/stories/season-summaries/2/all/ - [2026-10-09] NASS's Crop Production release calendar on ESMIS lists only Oct 9, Nov 10 and Dec 10, 2026 as upcoming. No June 2027 date is posted yet. Past June releases were June 9 (2023), June 12 (2024 and 2025) and June 11 (2026). A release slipping past 2027-06-30 is unlikely but not excluded. The market's Underlying says "2026 page currently reports 3,091,000," so resolution depends on a clean June 2027 print. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/publication/crop-production - [2026-06-11] The June 2026 report's footnote says price and value for 2026 will come in the June 2027 report. The same report will therefore carry both the 2027 production figure and a revised 2026 figure. The history shows that prior-year Vermont figures get revised (2025 went from 3.06M to 3.009M). The 2027 first print is its own estimate, and revisions of that print only matter if the resolver reads a later QuickStats value. https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795936/crop0626.pdf - [2026-06-23] Quebec's 2026 crop was a record or near-record 229.5M lb, and Quebec is adding 7M taps. Quebec supply growth plus Vermont sugarmakers' cost pressure (the Vermont Maple Sugar Makers' Association has cited tariff and equipment costs) could weigh on the Vermont tap count. I found no source that links this to cuts in Vermont taps. https://www.themaplenews.com/stories/season-summaries/2/all/ - [2026-06-11] Vermont's 2026 first print was only 191k above the strike, and 2025 was 3.009M as revised. A 6.2% fall from 3.091M is enough to resolve NO. Vermont's year-on-year changes include -20% (2023 first print), +21% and -1.5% (rebenchmarked and first-print series). A 6% drop sits well within the demonstrated volatility. https://vermontbiz.com/news/2025/june/12/2025-vermont-maple-season-production-over-3-million-gallons-again BOTTOM LINE: The strongest NO case is a thin cushion of about 6%, a slowly eroding tap base, and weather that is the sole driver of yield. Yield only has to revert to about 0.36 gal/tap, which is the level of the weakest recent years. Vermont has had one clear miss (2023) within its modern series, and no early 2027 signal exists. NOT FOUND: The official date of the June 2027 Crop Production release. Any 2027 tap-count intention data. Any source linking tariffs or Quebec expansion to Vermont tap cuts. Any 2027 season forecast.