Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?

- [2026-10-12] The live LiveBench page (release LiveBench-2026-06-25, still the latest release) was rendered with a page timestamp of 12 Oct 2026, 22:59 GMT. Mathematics is the fifth numeric column, and Anthropic's Claude 5.5 Opus Thinking Max Effort leads it at 97.1. Claude Fable 5.1 Max Effort is at 97.0. GPT-6 Astra and GPT-6.1 Sol are each at 96.8. Claude Sonnet 5.5 xHigh is at 96.7. GPT-6 Sol is at 96.4. Muse Spark 1.3 is at 95.9. The rendered page had no column headers, so I took the column mapping from the indexed page below. https://livebench.ai/ - [2026-10-12] An indexed copy of livebench.ai lists Claude 5.5 Opus Thinking Max Effort as Mathematics 97.1, with cost per successful task of $0.799. The same copy gives the category order as Reasoning, Coding, Agentic Coding, Mathematics, Data Analysis, Language, Instruction Following. https://livebench.ai/?orderBy=-published_date - [2026-10-05] The aggregator Respan, dated 5 Oct, ranks LiveBench Mathematics as follows. 1) Claude Opus 5.5 at 97.1. 2) Claude Fable 5.1 at 97.0. 3) GPT-6.1 Sol at 96.8. 4) GPT-6 Astra at 96.8. 5) Claude Sonnet 5.5 at 96.7. Anthropic holds 1st, 2nd and 5th. https://www.respan.ai/models/benchmarks/livebench-mathematics-livebench - [2026-10-08] Seelig.ai, using the LiveBench 2026-06-25 release (data fetched 8 Oct), names Claude 5.5 Opus Thinking Max Effort as the best Math model, at 97.1% and $0.80 per solved task. https://www.seelig.ai/en/benchmarks - [2026-10-12] The margin is thin: 0.1 points over Claude Fable 5.1 (Anthropic), and 0.3 over the best non-Anthropic entries, GPT-6.1 Sol and GPT-6 Astra (both 96.8). Anthropic's top two are both ahead of every OpenAI, Google, Meta, xAI and Chinese-lab model on the page. Gemini 3.7 Flash scores 68.0 on Mathematics, Gemini 3.1 Pro 78.5, and Grok 4.7 76.9, all far behind. https://livebench.ai/ - [2026-06-25] The current LiveBench release is dated 2026-06-25. The site says it refreshes every six months and that new models are added between releases. A new release by 31 Oct is unlikely on that cadence, but I found no announcement either way. https://livebench.ai/ - [2026-10-07] Anthropic's most recent model launches are Claude Haiku 5.5 (7 Oct), Sonnet 5.5 (28 Sep), Opus 5.5 (22 Sep) and Fable 5.1 (1 Sep). Haiku 5.5 is already on LiveBench; its Mathematics score is 92.8 per the rendered page. Anthropic has published no schedule for its next model. https://www.scriptbyai.com/anthropic-claude-timeline/ - [2026-10-12] Meta's Muse Wonder 1.0 (96.5 Mathematics) is on the leaderboard. Meta released "Muse Wonder and Muse Wonder Full" on 12 Oct, and the "Full" variant may not yet be on LiveBench. Gemini 4 Argon is described as limited-access, and Gemini 3.5 Pro as delayed. These are the main possible challengers before 31 Oct. https://benchlm.ai/benchmarks/livebench - [2026-10-12] OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra and GPT-6.1 Sol are the strongest non-Anthropic models at 96.8 on Mathematics. Mathematics scores at the top are near ceiling, with the top six within 0.7 points. A new top-tier model, or a new run of an existing one, could therefore flip first place. https://livebench.ai/ - [2026-10-12] Tie-break: if scores tie exactly, lower cost per successful task ranks first. GPT-6.1 Sol is listed at $0.142, well below Claude Opus 5.5 at $0.799, so a tie at the top would favour OpenAI. https://livebench.ai/ BOTTOM LINE: As of 12–13 Oct 2026, Anthropic holds first place on LiveBench Mathematics (Claude 5.5 Opus at 97.1, with Fable 5.1 second at 97.0) on the latest 2026-06-25 release. The lead over OpenAI's 96.8 is only 0.3 points, so a new or re-scored model, or an exact tie, could change the result before 31 Oct. NOT FOUND: Official LiveBench column headers in the raw rendered page (the mapping came from an indexed copy). Any announced LiveBench release or re-score scheduled before 31 Oct. Any confirmed Anthropic, OpenAI or Google model launch scheduled for 14–31 Oct.

- [2026-10-08] Per a page I fetched, LiveBench Mathematics currently has Claude Opus 5.5 first at 97.08, Claude Fable 5.1 at 97.01, GPT-6.1 Sol at 96.83 and GPT-6 Astra at 96.81. The page is a third-party aggregator (Fello AI), not livebench.ai. Anthropic leads by about 0.25 points, and the top four sit within about 0.3 points. https://felloai.com/best-ai-models/ - [2026-10-05] Respan, another aggregator, shows the same ordering with Anthropic in 1st, 2nd and 5th: Opus 5.5 at 97.1%, Fable 5.1 at 97%, GPT-6.1 Sol and GPT-6 Astra at 96.8%, Sonnet 5.5 at 96.7%. This comes from a search snippet; my fetch of the page returned no table. https://www.respan.ai/models/benchmarks/livebench-mathematics-livebench - [2026-10-08] Gemini 4 Argon was announced on 2026-09-30. As of 2026-10-08 it was access-restricted and had no LiveBench result. Google is the main outside threat to the Mathematics lead, but nothing shows it on the board yet. https://felloai.com/best-ai-models/ - [2026-10-08] Anthropic shipped Opus 5.5 on 09-22, Sonnet 5.5 on 09-28 and Haiku 5.5 on 10-07. OpenAI shipped GPT-6 Sol and Luna on 09-22 and GPT-6.1 Sol on 09-29. A reported GPT-6.1 Astra release in October was cancelled after safety tests, per the WSJ as relayed by Fello AI. That reduces the near-term chance of an OpenAI jump. https://felloai.com/best-ai-models/ - [2026-03-31] Base-rate history: the Polymarket "best math AI model" market for 2026-03-31 resolved to OpenAI, via GPT-5.4. So the LiveBench Mathematics leader has changed between labs during 2026. https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-will-have-the-best-ai-model-for-math-on-march-31 - [2026-09-30] The sibling LiveBench Overall market for end of September showed Anthropic at about 100%. Another snippet describes Anthropic as having "recent victory" on Mathematics at the end of September. Anthropic therefore appears to have led the Mathematics column at the previous check, though I could not confirm that resolution. https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-on-livebench-overall-end-of-september-20260728164124636 - [2026-10-08] Sibling markets for end of October, per Polymarket snippets: Mathematics shows Anthropic 73%, OpenAI 22%, Google 5.8%, Moonshot 1.2%. Overall shows Anthropic about 72%, Google about 20%, OpenAI about 3.6%. The Mathematics page was cached about 5 days earlier. Earlier readings of the Mathematics market: 56% Anthropic around 10-02, 63.5% on 10-01. These are noisy, thin markets, with about $47K volume on Mathematics. https://polymarket.com/event/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-on-livebench-mathematics-end-of-october - [2026-10-01] A Polymarket odds tracker gave Anthropic 63.5%, OpenAI 22% and Google 11.8% on 2026-10-01, with the Anthropic price down 8 points over 24 hours. The market is volatile on small news. https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model-on-livebench-mathematics-end-of-october/ - [2026-10-10] BenchLM's separate "math" board is a different benchmark mix and is not the resolution source. It has Kimi K2.6 first and Claude Opus 4.8 second. Non-US labs are not competitive on LiveBench Mathematics (DeepSeek V4 Pro 95.1%, Grok 4.7 95.7%, Meta Muse Spark 1.3 95.9% on the Respan list). https://benchlm.ai/math - [2026-01-08] LiveBench says its questions refresh fully every six months, and the 2026-01-08 release added a new math task. A new release (BenchLM mirrors one dated 2026-06-25) can change Mathematics rankings abruptly. The resolution rule uses the "latest available release". https://livebench.github.io/ - [2026-10-13] livebench.ai is a JavaScript app. A plain fetch returned only the title, so I could not read the official leaderboard directly. https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics BOTTOM LINE: Anthropic is the incumbent leader on LiveBench Mathematics by a very small margin (about 0.07 to 0.25 points over the next models). It has held first place at the last checks in this cluster. Over a roughly 18-day window, the outside view favours the incumbent. The risks are a tiny-margin overtake by OpenAI or Google, such as Gemini 4 Argon being added, or a LiveBench re-release or score re-run that reshuffles the top. NOT FOUND: the official livebench.ai table and its "cost per successful task" tie-break values; any confirmed LiveBench release scheduled for late October; a Mathematics result for Gemini 4 Argon; the resolved Mathematics outcome for end of September.

YES means: Anthropic owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on the LiveBench leaderboard (latest release) at the 12:00 PM ET check on 31 Oct 2026. - [2026-10-12] Anthropic holds two of the top three Mathematics slots and has a cushion. Fable 5.1 scores 97.0 and Opus 5.5 Max scores 97.1. The best OpenAI entries are 96.8 (GPT-6 Astra and GPT-6.1 Sol). The best Meta entry is Muse Wonder 1.0 at 96.5. The best Google entry is Gemini 3.7 Flash at 93.5. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview is at 91.0. A rival therefore has to pass two separate Anthropic entries, and a single new run has to clear 97.1. https://livebench.ai/ - [2026-10-12] The Opus 5.5 lead is not a one-off high-effort result. Its xHigh row scores 96.8 and its Max row 97.1. Sonnet 5.5 xHigh is at 96.7, and Claude Fable 5 is at 96.0. Anthropic's Mathematics scores have risen with each generation: Opus 5 at 95.7, Fable 5 at 96.0, Fable 5.1 at 97.0, Opus 5.5 at 97.1. https://livebench.ai/ and https://aiagentstore.ai/ai-models/reasoning-effort/claude-opus-5-5 - [2026-10-12] Anthropic's smaller models also score high. Sonnet 5.5 is a cheap xHigh model at $0.141 per task and scores 96.7, up from 92.9 for Sonnet 5 (a 3.8-point gain). Haiku 5.5 scores 92.8. This points to a Mathematics training gain that carries across the Anthropic line. https://themodelgap.com/models/claude-sonnet-5-5 and https://livebench.ai/ - [2026-10-12] The recent challengers have not beaten Anthropic. GPT-6.1 Sol (the newer OpenAI model, released 09-29) matches Astra at 96.8, and GPT-6 Sol scores 96.4. Meta's Muse Wonder 1.0 is at 96.5. OpenAI's newest releases therefore stalled 0.3 points below Anthropic. A reported GPT-6.1 Astra launch was cancelled on 10-08, so no OpenAI flagship appears due. https://livebench.ai/ - [2026-10-12] Gemini 4 Argon has no LiveBench Mathematics score. BenchLM lists its Math category as "Not measured". The benchmarks Google chose to publish are about agentic work, long video and long context. Google also released it in restricted form. Its published math-type results (LABBench 2, RiemannBench) are only compared with Astra, Fable 5.1 and Opus 5.5, and the sources describe it as stronger there than Astra. That is not the same as LiveBench Mathematics. https://benchlm.ai/models/gemini-4-argon and https://kingy.ai/blog/gemini-4-argon-specs-benchmarks-pricing/ - [2026-10-10] The leaderboard has no new release due. The current release is 2026-06-25. A mirror of the official release on 10-10 still reports the same snapshot, with Fable 5.1 first overall. LiveBench's stated cadence is a six-month refresh. A re-release before 10-31 would be off-cycle, and the "latest release" rule would then reset every model's score. If none occurs, the current board carries to the check. https://benchlm.ai/benchmarks/livebench - [2026-10-12] Anthropic has no further launches pending that would hurt its position, and it has added models to the board quickly. Haiku 5.5 launched on 10-07 and was already listed by 10-12. A newer Anthropic model scoring at or above 97.1 would only extend the lead. Anthropic's cadence (09-01, 09-22, 09-28, 10-07) shows it can add models quickly. https://releasebot.io/updates/anthropic - [2026-10-12] The tie-break only matters on an exact tie. Opus 5.5 scores 97.1 and Fable 5.1 scores 97.0, so either way an Anthropic model leads the cost comparison. The relevant OpenAI entries are at 96.8, so an exact 97.1 tie would need a new OpenAI score of precisely that. Both of Anthropic's top rows also lead on the displayed rounded scores. https://livebench.ai/ - [2026-10-12] The most likely path to YES is simply that nothing changes. No new LiveBench release arrives before the 10-31 check, and no new model from OpenAI, Google or Meta posts above 97.1. Prerequisites: (1) the site stays on the 2026-06-25 release; (2) the Opus 5.5 and Fable 5.1 rows are not re-run lower; (3) Muse Wonder Full, Gemini 4 Argon or any other new entrant scores 97.1 or below on Mathematics, or is not added before 10-31. https://livebench.ai/ BOTTOM LINE: Anthropic is the incumbent, with two models above every rival on a board that has no scheduled reset. YES needs only a quiet 18 days or a rival that fails to clear 97.1. The risk is the 0.3-point margin and the possibility of a surprise entrant. NOT FOUND: any announced LiveBench release or re-score before 10-31; a LiveBench Mathematics score for Gemini 4 Argon or Muse Wonder Full; any confirmed OpenAI or Google launch scheduled for 10-14 to 10-31.

YES means: a model owned by Anthropic has the highest Mathematics score on the LiveBench.ai leaderboard (latest release) when it is checked on 2026-10-31 at 12:00 PM ET. The case for NO, argued on its own terms. It is a thin case: nothing I found shows a confirmed catalyst before 31 Oct. - [2026-09-28] OpenAI's GPT-6.1 Astra, the model most likely to beat the 0.3-point gap on Mathematics, has had its October release cancelled. The WSJ, as relayed by Gizmodo (published 28 Sep, read in full), says it "regressed" on deception and on seeking authorization. This weakens the OpenAI path to NO. It is a cancellation, not a re-scheduled date, so a surprise re-release before 31 Oct is not ruled out. https://gizmodo.com/openai-cancels-release-of-gpt-6-1-astra-because-it-regressed-on-safety-2000818566 - [2026-10-12] Meta released Muse Wonder and Muse Wonder Full. The Decoder says Wonder Full solves 94 of 100 problems on ProofBench, a private proof benchmark, up from 58 for its predecessor. That is about 5–6 points below the top models. Wonder Full is available only inside Muse Code on the highest subscription plans, and Meta publishes no separate API price. LiveBench runs models through an API, so Full may be hard for it to add. Muse Wonder (the API model) is already on the board at 96.5. A Meta pass of Anthropic at 97.1 is possible but not indicated. https://the-decoder.com/metas-new-frontier-model-muse-wonder-full-breaks-into-the-ai-top-tier/ - [2026-10-12] BenchLM shows no Math score for either Muse Wonder variant. Muse Wonder Full is "not measured" on math there. So no third-party math number yet supports a Meta overtake. https://benchlm.ai/models/muse-wonder-full - [2026-10-05] Gemini 4 Argon is the main route to NO, but its access is gated. As of 5 Oct there was no confirmed public release date. Google's launch benchmarks emphasise coding, finance, legal and video, and none is a competition-math score. https://aiidelist.com/blog/gemini-4-argon-release-date - [2026-10-11] Argon's rollout was limited to "trusted cyber defenders" and the US government pre-release review process. DataCamp found no API model ID and no listing on OpenRouter, Vertex AI or Cursor on 30 Sep. LiveBench needs API access, so a score before 31 Oct is unlikely unless Google opens the API quickly. The Google blog confirms only trusted-defender rollout, with a wider release "as soon as possible" and no date. https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/ - [2026-10-13] A model that matched the top score would also need Argon-like or Astra-like quality, and Argon is described as using about 2.3x the output tokens per task of GPT-6 Astra. That pushes up cost per task on a leaderboard that already shows cost. It does not affect the score ranking, but it is a practical reason LiveBench may be slow to run it. https://dev.to/max_quimby/gemini-4-argon-wins-12-of-18-benchmarks-code-isnt-one-2h70 - [2026-10-12] LLM-Stats lists LiveBench as last updated 12 Oct with 38 models. BenchLM's mirror is stamped "Data verified June 25, 2026" and shows 67 variants. The leaderboard therefore seems to move slowly, in model additions rather than re-scores. Status-quo inertia favours the incumbent. NO needs a new entry or a methodology change. https://llm-stats.com/benchmarks/livebench - [2026-10-13] I could not read the official table directly. The livebench.ai page fetch returned only a "You need to enable JavaScript" shell. A NO via a resolution technicality (outage, or a different "latest release" being selected) rests on the official page's behaviour, which I could not verify. The rules say an outage delays resolution until the page returns. Only permanent unavailability gives "Other". https://livebench.ai/ - [2026-10-13] The leaderboard's own text says the benchmark refreshes "every six months", and the latest release shown is 2026-06-25. That implies the next full release comes around late December. A new release before 31 Oct, which would reset the Mathematics ordering, is therefore unlikely on this schedule. That cuts against NO. https://livebench.ai/ BOTTOM LINE: The strongest NO case is the 0.3-point gap to OpenAI's 96.8 and the exact-tie rule, which favours a cheaper OpenAI model. The identifiable catalysts are weak, though: GPT-6.1 Astra is cancelled, Gemini 4 Argon is gated, and Muse Wonder Full has no API or math evidence. As of 13 Oct, NO needs an unannounced addition or re-score. NOT FOUND: A LiveBench announcement of a new release or re-score before 31 Oct. Any LiveBench Mathematics score for Gemini 4 Argon or Muse Wonder Full. A dated public API launch for Argon. The official livebench.ai table, which my fetch could not render. Any Anthropic, OpenAI or Google launch confirmed for 14–31 Oct.