Will the number of calendar days on which an RTO-wide PJM Maximum Generation Emergency/Load Management Alert – Capacity Emergency – NERC EEA 1 was applicable in 2026 be above 15 days?

By my count the 2026 total is about 14 qualifying days as of 2026-10-13, assuming the Sept 3 and Sept 17 alerts were RTO-wide and not drills. The threshold of "above 15" needs 16 or more. I did not see a full 2026 list from PJM's Postings Report. - [2026-09-02] The contract's own clarification gives 11 eligible RTO-wide days through Sept 2. It excludes May 20, because that alert covered only BGE, DOM and PEPCO. Drills are excluded too. Source: the question text; PJM's postings are at https://emergencyprocedures.pjm.com/ - [2026-09-02] PJM issued a Max Gen/Load Management Alert for Sept 3 for "the region PJM serves". It is not in the 11-day count, which ran only through Sept 2. I read it as RTO-wide but did not confirm that on the posting itself. https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-hot-weather-operations-update-sept-2-2026/ - [2026-09-16] PJM issued a Max Gen Alert and Load Management Alert for Sept 17. The Sept 17 operations update says the alert was "in effect for the PJM region", and PJM called demand response that day. The Sept 17 update does not say whether the alert ran past that day. https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-issues-maximum-generation-alert-for-sept-17/ and https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-operations-update-sept-17-2026/ - [2026-10-12] Posting 105557 is a Max Gen Emergency/Load Management Alert, Capacity Emergency, NERC EEA 1. It is RTO-wide and effective 00:00–23:59 on Oct 13, so Oct 13 counts. It says Max Gen Emergency "has been called into the operating capacity". https://emergencyprocedures.pjm.com/ - [2026-10-12] PJM extended a Capacity Advisory through Oct 14. It cited warm weather and about 60,000 MW of generation outages on Monday Oct 12. That raises the chance of another EEA 1 alert on Oct 14. An advisory is not itself an EEA 1, and I found no Oct 14 alert posting. https://rallies.ai/news/pjm-extends-capacity-advisory-to-oct-14-d04a639702a65c9d - [2026-10-12] DOE 202(c) Order 202-26-50 was obtained and runs through Oct 16 at 23:59. PJM said it has a reliability need to use the specified resources for the Oct 13 operating day. https://emergencyprocedures.pjm.com/ - [2026-10-08] Capacity Advisories were posted for Oct 12 and Oct 13. The Oct 12 and Oct 13 advisories are separate from, and sit alongside, the EEA 1 alerts. I did not confirm an EEA 1 for Oct 12. https://emergencyprocedures.pjm.com/ - [2026-10-08] A PJM Operating Committee presentation, "202(c) update in preparation for winter season", is linked from the postings page. I did not open it. https://emergencyprocedures.pjm.com/ - [2026-07-02] A heat wave set an all-time peak of 168,158 MW. Max Gen, Load Management and Hot Weather alerts were active. These July days are presumably in the 11-day count. https://www.electricchoice.com/blog/pjm-emergency-order-heat-wave-2026/ - [2026-01-27] A Max Gen Alert and Load Management Alert were in effect through Jan 27 during Winter Storm Fern. These January days are presumably in the 11-day count. https://insidelines.pjm.com/jan-26-pjm-cold-weather-operations-update/ - [2026-06-24] Manual 13 revision 98 took effect. It added a Capacity Advisory as a new emergency procedure for tightening conditions outside extreme weather. That helps explain the off-season advisories and alerts. https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-adds-emergency-procedures-to-maintain-reliability/ - [2026-10-13] Outage season (maintenance from mid-September through December) means PJM is carrying about 35,000–60,000 MW of generation outages. Warm weather in that window has been enough to trigger alerts. Winter cold snaps (December) are another possible source of alerts before the market closes on 2027-01-01. https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-issues-maximum-generation-alert-for-sept-17/ BOTTOM LINE: The count is about 14 (11 through Sept 2, plus Sept 3, Sept 17 and Oct 13), so roughly 2 more qualifying days are needed to exceed 15. A further alert on Oct 14 or later, which is plausible given the tight outage-season conditions and the Capacity Advisory through Oct 14, would get it there. NOT FOUND: PJM's full 2026 Postings Report list of dates, whether the Sept 3 and Sept 17 alerts were RTO-wide, whether any alert was in effect Sept 4–16 or Sept 18–Oct 11 or on Oct 12, and any Oct 14 alert posting.

- [2026-10-12] PJM posted an RTO-wide Max Gen Emergency/Load Mgmt Alert – NERC EEA 1 (Msg 105557) at 15:49, applicable 00:00–23:59 on 10/13/2026. Oct 13 is therefore a qualifying day. https://emergencyprocedures.pjm.com/ - [2026-10-12] The same page lists a DOE 202(c) order (202-26-50) in force through 10/16 and Capacity Advisories for 10/12 and 10/13. Late-season tightness is continuing, so further alerts on 10/14–10/16 are plausible. https://emergencyprocedures.pjm.com/ - [2026-09-02] The market clarification gives 11 qualifying days through Sept 2 (May 20 excluded as BGE/DOM/PEPCO only). It does not say whether Sept 3 was counted. PJM issued an alert for Sept 3 on Sept 2. https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-hot-weather-operations-update-sept-2-2026/ - [2026-09-16] PJM issued an RTO Max Gen/Load Mgmt Alert for Sept 17. It cited warm weather, exports, and more than 35,000 MW of planned outages. https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-issues-maximum-generation-alert-for-sept-17/ - [2026-09-18] The alert stayed in effect for Sept 18 (reported by PA Environment Digest, quoting PJM). Emergency DR was activated on Sept 17. https://paenvironmentdaily.blogspot.com/2026/09/pjm-interconnection-maximum-generation.html - Tally of known days: 11 through Sept 2, plus Sept 3 (alert issued), Sept 17, Sept 18 and Oct 13. That is about 15 if Sept 3 is not already in the 11, or 14 if it is. Either way it is at or below the 15 threshold, so the count is at the line, not above it. Any one more qualifying day, such as a Sept 16 or Oct 14–16 posting, would likely push it above 15. This is my arithmetic and is not confirmed by an official total. - [2026-09-01] 2026 is an extreme year. Records and events in it include a July 2 all-time peak of 168,158 MW, a Sept 1 EEA-1, and a spring event on May 18–20. Earlier hot-weather alerts ran June 29–July 5, July 14–17 and Aug 9–11. https://www.electricchoice.com/blog/pjm-emergency-order-heat-wave-2026/ - [2026-10-08] PJM added a Capacity Advisory procedure in June 2026. Advisories were issued for 10/12 and 10/13, which is a precursor to Max Gen Alerts in tight shoulder-season conditions. https://gridbeyond.com/pjm-alertsexplained/ - Historical reference class: RTO-wide EEA1 Max Gen Alerts in earlier years were sparse, a few days per year (for example 7/27/2023, 1/22/2025, 6/22–25/2025). 2026 has already far exceeded those. https://emergencyprocedures.pjm.com/ep/pages/viewposting.jsf?id=104642 - [2026-06-24] Manual 13 Rev. 98 (effective 2026-06-24) split the Max Gen/Load Mgmt Alert in Section 5.2 into separate types. These include a Transmission Security local alert, which would not count as RTO-wide. https://www.pjm.com/-/media/DotCom/documents/manuals/m13.pdf - Remaining window: Oct 14 to Dec 31 includes the start of winter. Cold snaps in Jan 2025 and Jan 2026 produced RTO alerts. A DOE winter-preparedness 202(c) item was on the 10/8 OC agenda. BOTTOM LINE: The tally is at or just below 15 as of 10/13, depending on whether Sept 3 is double-counted in the 11 and whether any days were missed. Elevated tightness now (a 202(c) order through 10/16 and capacity advisories) plus about 11 weeks of the remaining year, including early winter, point to more qualifying days being likely. NOT FOUND: An official PJM Postings Report total after Sept 2, a Sept 16 or Oct 12 posting, and any outside forecasts or other venues' markets for this count.

YES means: PJM's Postings Report shows 16 or more calendar days in 2026 with an RTO-wide Max Gen Emergency/Load Management Alert – Capacity Emergency – NERC EEA 1 applicable (drills and zonal-only alerts excluded). - [2026-10-13] The PJM postings page, which I rendered in full, confirms Msg 105557. It is an RTO-wide EEA 1 alert covering 00:00–23:59 on Oct 13, and it says Max Gen Emergency "has been called into the operating capacity". Oct 13 therefore counts. That is the third alert-type day since the Sept 2 clarification, alongside Sept 3 and Sept 17–18 from the colleagues' reports. https://emergencyprocedures.pjm.com/ - [2026-10-12] PJM's own release says the Capacity Advisory now runs through Wed Oct 14. Forecast load is 112,200 MW Tuesday and 112,473 MW Wednesday, up from 103,329 MW Monday. Load is rising while outages stay near 60 GW, so Oct 14 is tighter than Oct 13 on the demand side. The Oct 13 EEA 1 followed the same pattern: a Capacity Advisory, then an EEA 1. An Oct 14 EEA 1 posting would make the count 15 or 16, depending on whether Sept 3 and Sept 18 are in the baseline. https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-extends-capacity-advisory-to-oct-14/ - [2026-10-12] PJM's release says the generator maintenance outage recall holds until noon Oct 14. After that, deferred maintenance may resume. Wed Oct 14 and the following days could therefore be the last tight days of this spell. The advisory was extended once already, so a further extension is possible. https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-extends-capacity-advisory-to-oct-14/ - [2026-10-12] The 202(c) order runs through Oct 16 at 23:59. PJM requested it specifically for Oct 13–16 (Msg 105555 and the Inside Lines release). That implies PJM was planning for tightness on all four days, not just Oct 13. An EEA 1 on Oct 14, 15 or 16 is the single most likely path to YES. The prerequisite is that load and outage conditions stay as forecast. https://emergencyprocedures.pjm.com/ - [2026-10-09] PJM says the Oct 12–13 advisory was the first use of the new Capacity Advisory. It says capacity shortfalls now occur "during milder weather" and that it expects these instances to increase. This is PJM's own statement that fall and spring alerts are becoming routine, which is the mechanism for extra days. Weather no longer has to be extreme to produce an EEA 1. https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-capacity-advisory-issued-for-oct-12-13/ - [2026-10-09] The Oct 12–13 advisory cited about 70 GW of scheduled generation outages. PJM staff told the Operating Committee that this is typical for the shoulder season. The June 24 Manual 13 revision stated that outage season runs mid-September to early December. That leaves about 7 more weeks of outage season, ending before the Jan 1 close. Each warm spell in that window can trigger an alert, as the Sept 17 and Oct 13 events did. https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-capacity-advisory-issued-for-oct-12-13/ - [2026-01-27] The DOE 202(c) order for the Eddystone units says PJM issued an EEA 1 on Jan 27. Separately, it says summer 2025 alerts covered 20 days. That gives a recent base rate of roughly 20 alert days per year when Hot Weather Alerts are included. The 2026 count has already passed 11 by Sept 2 and is at about 14–15 now. Winter 2025/26 also produced a multi-day cold event with conservative operations from Jan 24 to Feb 2. https://www.energy.gov/documents/eddystone-202c-order-no-202-26-17 - [2026-10-12] Gridstatus-type commentary (undated and unreliable, from a snippet) describes cooling-load season as "stubborn" and notes repeated tight evening peaks. I did not verify its date or its relevance to 2026, so treat it as a lead only. Prior snippets from the PJM site show the Sept 17 alert also stayed in effect on Sept 18, so multi-day carry-over is common. That makes a two-day Oct 13–14 run plausible. https://www.gridstatus.io/insights/57125397585 - [2026-10-12] The postings page also shows PJM-wide special notices on a 202(c) order for backup generation, posted Oct 11–12. This suggests PJM is treating Oct 13–16 as potentially worse than a routine advisory. The order's applicability notice (Msg 105556) says PJM has a reliability need for Specified Resources on the Oct 13 operating day. PJM said it will give more communication for the rest of the order's duration. https://emergencyprocedures.pjm.com/ Most likely path to YES: 1. An EEA 1 for Oct 14, which needs load of about 112 GW against 60 GW of outages. This is the likeliest single route. 2. A further EEA 1 on Oct 15 or 16, under the 202(c) order's window. 3. One more warm spell in late October or November. 4. A December cold snap. A Jan 2026-style Max Gen alert would add days, given PJM's winter outlook concerns. The count needs 16, and the baseline is about 14–15. Two more days would suffice if Sept 3 and Sept 18 are both in the baseline. Only one more would suffice if Sept 3 is not in the 11. BOTTOM LINE: The count is within one to two days of the threshold. An EEA 1 on Oct 14, which forecast load and the extended advisory make a live possibility, could get it to 15–16. The remaining outage season and December cold could supply further days. NOT FOUND: Any Oct 14 or later EEA 1 posting. A complete PJM Postings Report date list for 2026. A confirmed day-by-day count after Sept 2. The Oct 8 Operating Committee 202(c) presentation (not opened). Whether Sept 3 is already in the 11. The Inside Lines page itself returned HTTP 202 when fetched; its content came from the search result.

YES means: the PJM Postings Report shows 16 or more calendar days in 2026 with an RTO-wide Max Gen Emergency/Load Management Alert (NERC EEA 1) applicable. Drills and zone-only postings are excluded. - [2026-10-13] The "NO" case is that the count is at most 15, which is exactly at the line, not above it. Ceiling tally: 11 days through Sept 2, plus Sept 3, Sept 17, Sept 18 and Oct 13. That is 15 if Sept 3 sits outside the 11, and 14 if it is already inside. Both figures are at or below 15 and resolve NO unless at least one more day qualifies. The 11-day figure is the question's own Sept 2 clarification. https://emergencyprocedures.pjm.com/ - [2026-09-02] Sept 1 and Sept 2 alerts were already issued before the 11-day cutoff (Max Gen issued for Sept 1 on Aug 31, and for Sept 2 on Sept 1). The Sept 3 alert was issued on Sept 2 itself. The cutoff "through September 2" therefore plausibly counted the Sept 3 posting, because it was posted on Sept 2. That would make the Sept 3 double-count risk real and the running total 14. https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-hot-weather-operations-update-sept-2-2026/ - [2026-09-18] The Sept 18 carry-over is sourced only to a blog quoting PJM. It says a Max Gen/Load Management Alert "remains in effect" for Sept 18. The PJM Sept 17 update does not itself extend the alert past Sept 17. If the Postings Report shows Sept 18 as part of the Sept 17 posting, it counts. If the posting was Sept 17 only, the tally falls to 14, or 13 if Sept 3 is also in the 11. https://paenvironmentdaily.blogspot.com/2026/09/pjm-interconnection-maximum-generation.html - [2026-10-12] The Oct 12–14 events so far are Capacity Advisories, not EEA 1 alerts. The Postings Report for Oct 10–12 shows only advisories for Oct 12 and Oct 13 and one EEA 1 posting, 105557, for Oct 13. PJM described the Oct 12–13 advisory as the first use of the new procedure. The Oct 14 extension is likewise an advisory plus a Maintenance Outage Recall. https://emergencyprocedures.pjm.com/ and https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-capacity-advisory-issued-for-oct-12-13/ - [2026-10-12] Load is mild this week. Forecast peaks are about 103,000 MW Monday, 112,200 MW Tuesday and 112,473 MW Wednesday. That is far below the 130,000–156,000 MW levels of the Sept and Jan alerts. Oct 13's EEA 1 is driven by about 60,000 MW of outages (earlier forecasts were around 70,000 MW), not by load. Once outages are recalled or finished, this driver fades. https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-extends-capacity-advisory-to-oct-14/ - [2026-10-12] PJM's own wording ties capacity emergencies historically to systemwide hot or cold weather alerts. It expects shoulder-season tightness to become more frequent. The new Capacity Advisory is a lower-tier tool designed to catch these cases. PJM can therefore use advisories and outage recalls for shoulder-season tightness without escalating to EEA 1. The Oct 13 EEA 1 shows escalation is possible. https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-capacity-advisory-issued-for-oct-12-13/ - [2026-06-24] The Manual 13 Rev. 98 split created "Transmission Security" local alerts. These do not trigger EEAs, and a local or partial-zone posting would not count under the RTO-wide rule. Some late-season tightness may therefore appear as non-qualifying postings, as the May 20 BGE/DOM/PEPCO alert did. https://www.pjm.com/-/media/DotCom/documents/manuals/m13-redline.pdf - [2026-10-13] Remaining runway is Oct 14 to Dec 31. Maintenance outages typically run from mid-September to early December. Outages should shrink as work finishes, and November is usually mild. The main remaining route to a new qualifying day is a cold snap in December. Last winter's qualifying alerts came only in the extreme Jan 2026 Winter Storm Fern, when the alert was in effect through Jan 27 (a single day at least confirmed). https://insidelines.pjm.com/jan-26-pjm-cold-weather-operations-update/ - [2026-09-17] Sept 17–18 alerts were tied to the unusual combination of ~36,000 MW of outages and a hot week with 132,000–133,000 MW load. The Oct 13 trigger is a lower-load, higher-outage variant. Alert days cluster in contiguous episodes (Aug 31–Sept 3, Sept 17–18). There was no gap-day alert between Sept 19 and Oct 11 that I could find in the searches. This suggests episodes are rare outside weather extremes. https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-operations-update-sept-17-2026/ - [2026-09-02] The May 20 exclusion shows the resolver parses regions strictly. Doubtful days (Sept 3, Sept 18, any Oct 14 carry-over) must show a PJM-RTO region in the Postings Report to count. Sept 3 and Sept 17 are described as "for the region PJM serves", which supports RTO. The Oct 13 posting is confirmed PJM-RTO. https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-hot-weather-operations-update-sept-2-2026/ BOTTOM LINE: On the confirmed and probable days the count is 14–15, so NO holds unless one or two more RTO-wide EEA 1 days appear. The Oct 14 advisory is not an EEA 1, and a missed or non-RTO listing on Sept 3 or Sept 18 would lower the tally further. NO therefore needs a quiet Oct 14–Dec 31, with no December cold snap and no further outage-driven escalation. NOT FOUND: the full 2026 Postings Report date list, any Oct 14 EEA 1 posting, confirmation of whether Sept 3 was in the 11 count, and the Postings Report's treatment of Sept 18 and any Oct 12 EEA 1. I also found no forecast of the Oct 14–Dec 31 weather.