Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Oct 28, 2026 meeting?

The target range is 3.75–4.00%, so the upper bound is exactly 4.00%. For this contract to resolve Yes, the Fed has to hike on Oct 28. A hold resolves No, and so does a cut. - [2026-09-16] The FOMC voted 12–0 to raise the target range by 25bp to 3¾–4%. This was the first hike since 2023 and ended five straight holds. The Fed's own statement page confirms the move. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm - [2026-10-12] FRED's lower-limit series shows 3.75 for Oct 8–12. A dashboard dated Oct 10 shows an upper bound of 4.00% and an effective rate of 3.88%. The next FOMC meeting is Oct 27–28. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARL - [2026-09-16] Wells Fargo's summary says 16 of 18 participants projected at least one more hike this year, and four saw room for two more. It describes the September move as an "inflation-risk-management" hike, not an automatic series. https://www.wellsfargoadvisors.com/research-analysis/reports/fed-rate.htm - [2026-10-07] September minutes: most officials expect another hike this year, but no timing was given. CNBC says recent inflation data and comments from leading officials make an October increase unlikely. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/07/fed-officials-see-another-hike-coming-but-no-sign-as-to-when-minutes-show.html - [2026-10-07] US News notes only two meetings remain (Oct 28 and Dec 9). It says the Oct meeting is close to the November midterms and that December looks more likely for the next hike. https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2026-10-07/fed-telegraphs-another-interest-rate-hike-this-year - [2026-10-02] September payrolls rose 29k against about 88k expected, and unemployment rose to 4.2% from 4.1%. Fed Vice Chair Jefferson and NY Fed President Williams struck a cautious tone on hiking. El-Erian said the report puts the Fed "definitely on hold" for October. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/weak-september-jobs-report-likely-to-keep-fed-on-hold-for-october-with-focus-still-on-inflation-132523600.html - [2026-10-07] August core PCE was 3.0% and headline 3.4%, both below expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield hit about 5.35%, its highest since 2002. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/07/fed-officials-see-another-hike-coming-but-no-sign-as-to-when-minutes-show.html and https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2026-10-07/fed-telegraphs-another-interest-rate-hike-this-year - [2026-10-12] Cleveland Fed President Hammack prefers smaller, more frequent adjustments but did not back a hike this month. Oil is near $94 on Middle East tensions, and the 10-year yield is near 5.24%. CPI is due Wednesday Oct 14, and Waller, Barkin and Collins speak Oct 13–14. https://babypips.com/news/financial-forex-market-recap-2026-10-12 - [2026-10-08] CME FedWatch put the odds of an Oct 28 hike at about 18–19%, down from 37.6% on Sep 30 and 24.4% earlier that week. Cut odds were 0%. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/fed-hike-odds-drop-18-034500528.html and https://jeffersonrich.substack.com/p/trovera-finds-vol-14-week-of-105 - [2026-10-10] Kalshi and Polymarket priced a 25bp hike at about 16% and a hold at about 84%; Kalshi's hike odds were down 2 points in a week. Futures-implied hike odds were about 18%. https://defirate.com/odds/fed-decision/ and https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/fed-rate-tracker - [2026-10-12] Another aggregator shows Polymarket at 86% hold and CME at 81.7% hold, with December hike odds near 76%. https://kucoin.com/news/flash/fed-rate-polymarket-odds-signal-october-hold-december-hike-risk-for-bitcoin - [2026-07-29] Three FOMC members dissented in favor of a hike when the Fed held in July. That shows a hawkish bloc exists, although September's vote was unanimous. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html BOTTOM LINE: The upper bound is 4.00% now, so Yes needs a 25bp hike at the Oct 28 meeting. As of Oct 8–12, markets put that at roughly 15–19%, after the weak September jobs report and below-expected PCE. The Oct 14 CPI release, oil and Fed speeches are the main things that could change this before the meeting. NOT FOUND: A live CME FedWatch page reading dated Oct 12. I also did not find any official Fed statement saying it would hold in October. The CNBC minutes page could not be fetched, so its content comes from the search snippet.

- [2026-09-16] Confirmed on the Fed's own page: the FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the target range by 25 bp to 3-3/4 to 4 percent. The upper bound is therefore exactly 4.00% now, and this contract resolves Yes only if the Oct 28 meeting hikes (or otherwise lifts the upper bound above 4.00%). A hold or a cut resolves No. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm - [2026-09-16] The Sept hike was the first since 2023. Before it, the range had been 3.50–3.75% since the Dec 2025 cut. It was held at the Jan, Mar, Apr/Jun and Jul meetings, with three dissents favoring a hike in July. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html - [2026-09-16] The Sept SEP median puts year-end 2026 at 4.1%, which implies one more 25 bp hike this year. 16 of 18 participants see at least one more hike and 4 see two more. https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/portfolio-insights/fixed-income/fixed-income-perspectives/fomc-statement-september-2026/ - [2026-10-07] The Sept minutes (released Oct 7) said most participants saw another hike as likely appropriate by year-end. They also said decisions would depend on incoming data. Pricing at that time was about 17% for an October hike and about 84% for December. https://www.abfjournal.com/middle-market-debt-weekly-fed-minutes-point-to-a-december-hike/ - [2026-10-02 to 10-12] The CME FedWatch hike probability for Oct 28 has fallen: 42.5% on Sept 11, 22.1% on Oct 2, and 17.2% in the week of Oct 12. Another report cites 18.8%, and a third cites 78.2% hold vs 21.8% hike (Investing.com). Trackers using other methods give about 28% (rateprobability.com, OIS-based, dated about Oct 9) and 17.9% (centralbank.watch). https://avaloncapitalresearch.substack.com/p/weekly-playbook-september-cpi-arrives - [2026-10-10] Prediction markets: Kalshi and Polymarket average about 16% hike, 84% hold and about 2% cut for Oct 28. Kalshi alone showed 16% hike and 85% hold, with December hike odds about 74%. https://defirate.com/odds/fed-decision/ - [2026-10-12] Polymarket showed 86% hold and 14% hike. CME showed 81.7% hold and 18.3% hike. December hike was about 76% on the same source. https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/fed-rate-polymarket-odds-signal-october-hold-december-hike-risk-for-bitcoin - [2026-10-02, approx.] Kalshi's October hike odds fell from 64% to 27% in a week, and CME's from 64% to 28%. NY Fed's Williams said there is "no need for urgency". He said one more hike might be appropriate "late this year". This points to December rather than October. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-still-track-hike-interest-074804267.html - [2026-10-12] The data picture is mixed. August CPI was +0.4% m/m and 3.4% y/y, and the 10-yr yield is about 5.27%. September CPI is due Wed Oct 14 and PPI Thu Oct 15. The Fed blackout starts after this week, so Fed speakers this week (Warsh, Waller, Hammack) are the last guidance before the meeting. https://www.fxstreet.com/cryptocurrencies/news/bitcoin-faces-a-tough-macro-test-and-etfs-bleed-where-next-for-btc-202610121244 - Base rate (general knowledge, not searched): the FOMC has historically moved rates at a minority of meetings. When futures price under 20% a few weeks out, a surprise move at the meeting is rare, and the Fed generally avoids surprising markets. Here the forward guidance leans toward a hike, but at December (the meeting with a new SEP), not October. - [2026-07-29] The Fed held at 3.50–3.75% in July, with three members dissenting in favor of a hike. The hawkish shift took about two meetings to turn into action. This shows the committee moves one step at a time and does not hike at consecutive meetings by default. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a1.htm BOTTOM LINE: The question is effectively "does the Fed hike again on Oct 28?" Every market source, with pricing from futures, Kalshi and Polymarket, puts a hike at roughly 14–28%, with most readings in the high teens. Guidance (the Sept dot plot, minutes and Williams) points to December as the more likely next hike. The odds have been trending down, and CPI on Oct 14 is the main swing factor. NOT FOUND: Kalshi's own Oct 28 contract price (deliberately not searched). A Bloomberg or Reuters economist poll for the October decision. A rigorous track record of FedWatch accuracy at about 2 weeks out in hiking cycles. A post-Sept-CPI update.

YES means: The FOMC hikes the target range by at least 25bp on Oct 28, 2026, so the published upper bound is above 4.00% (4.25% or higher). A hold at 3.75–4.00% or a cut resolves No. The case for Yes is thin. It needs a hawkish surprise before the meeting. - [2026-10-12] Hammack (a 2026 voter) said at NABE that financial conditions are "neutral, rather than holding demand back" and that policy needs to be "restrictive". She called inflation broad-based. She said demand-side pressures are "not self-correcting" and have raised the urgency for more aggressive action. She also said rate hikes won't fix energy or data-center demand. This is a hawkish voter's case for tighter policy, but she did not call for October. https://www.scotsmanguide.com/news/hammack-says-fed-rate-hikes-are-unlikely-to-mitigate-key-inflation-drivers/ - [2026-10-09] Hawkish bloc: Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissented for a hike in July and all vote again in October. The Fed voters are Warsh, Williams, Barr, Bowman, Cook, Jefferson, Powell, Waller, Hammack, Kashkari, Logan and Paulson. Only 1 of 14 brokerages surveyed (BofA) expected an October hike. The listed case for a hike is headline inflation of 3.4% that may rise on energy, plus one-year inflation expectations that "jumped to 4.6%" in one measure. The NY Fed survey figure was 3.9%. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/fed-rate-decision-october-2026 - [2026-10-12] Preview consensus for Sept CPI is headline +0.6% m/m and 3.7% y/y. The Cleveland Fed nowcast is +0.53% m/m. Core is expected at +0.2% m/m. The path to Yes runs through core. Admirals says core of 0.3% or more "could revive talk" of an October hike. MUFG says core must surprise upward, repeating August's 0.3%, to revive back-to-back bets. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/us-cpi-september-2026-scenarios-fed-october and https://investinglive.com/news/mufg-us-cpi-seen-at-3-6-core-must-surprise-to-revive-an-october-fed-hike - [2026-10-07] Kansas City's Schmid said the Fed needs to raise further even though long-term yields weigh on parts of the economy. Pricing then was 21.6% for an October hike, down from about 51% a week earlier. That shows how volatile the odds are, with swings of 30 points or more within a week. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/07/dollar-holds-losses-as-markets-await-fed-minutes-speakers.html - [2026-09-23] Precedent for fast repricing: Barr backed further hikes and the S&P flash PMIs hit four-year highs. October odds jumped to 73% (CME). The CPI-to-pricing sensitivity is high, and a hot core print could reverse the two-week slide. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/23/market-sentiment-note-placeholder (see https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/23/market-sees-next-fed-hike-in-october-following-barr-comments-hot-inflation.html) - [2026-10-08] Waller said hikes are likely needed and has an implied total path of 75bp. He said there is "flexibility" on pace and left the door open to an October pause. Reuters said investors expected a hold in October and a December hike. So the main doves-by-timing (Williams, Jefferson, Waller) lean against October, and the Yes case needs them to reverse. https://www.axios.com/2026/10/08/interest-rate-hikes-fed-waller and https://www.freedom969.com/business/feds-waller-more-hikes-needed-but-there-is-flexibility-about-the-pace - [2026-10-07] The staff outlook was stronger than in July and almost all participants saw inflation risks tilted up. Job risks were seen as broadly balanced. This gives a committee argument that the economy can take tightening, and that waiting risks a "steeper" sequence later, a reasoning some used in July. The September minutes still gave no timing. https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-minutes-set-to-provide-some-insight-into-the-timing-of-next-rate-hikes-202610071400 and https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-july-2026-fomc-minutes-181529233.html - [2026-09-16] Warsh is the key swing factor. He has stopped forward guidance and does not sign on to the SEP dots. His press conference sent October odds to 49% (from 40% that morning), and he said inflation is "too high and has been for too long". A chair who gives no guidance can surprise, but he has not signalled October, and Williams and Jefferson were described as "authoritative" on October patience. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting and https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-may-time-next-interest-173209828.html - [2026-10-12] Most likely path to Yes: (1) Sept core CPI on Oct 14 comes in at 0.3% or more, with a broad services rebound. (2) Strong retail sales, oil stays near or above $94, and the 10-yr yield stays above 5.2%. (3) Warsh, Waller or Williams speak hawkishly before the Oct 17 blackout, moving futures back above 50%. (4) The committee then moves in October rather than December, given that December is the only other meeting this year. Each step is uncertain. Against it are the weak 29k payrolls, below-expected PCE, and the Williams/Jefferson signals. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/fed-rate-decision-october-2026 BOTTOM LINE: Yes requires a back-to-back hike. The strongest case is a hot core CPI print plus a hawkish voting bloc (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan, Schmid) and a Fed that says it must hike by year-end, with odds that have swung 30 points in a week. Against that, the leadership (Williams, Jefferson, Waller) has pointed to December and the Fed rarely surprises markets. NOT FOUND: Any Fed official, including Warsh, explicitly calling for an October hike after Oct 1. I also found no post-CPI market repricing (the CPI release is Oct 14). The Morningstar page could not be fetched. One of my citations, the 2026-09-23 CNBC, was read from a snippet only.

YES means: the FOMC raises the target range at the Oct 27–28 meeting, so the upper bound published on the Fed's site is above 4.00% (4.25% or higher) after Oct 28. A hold or a cut resolves No. - [2026-10-01] Reuters (fetched): Williams said "no need for urgency" on Sept 29 and Jefferson echoed him on Oct 1. Evercore called the joint message "authoritative" and said the Fed does not expect back-to-back hikes. SGH's Tim Duy said Williams "needed to be unusually clear" because market pricing was running ahead of the Fed. These are the two top leadership voices, and Williams is vice chair of the FOMC. That makes this an explicit guide-off, not a drift in pricing. https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2026-10-01/fed-officials-wash-away-market-bets-october-rate-increase - [2026-10-01] Even Kashkari, an early hawk, said he has "no strong view" on whether the next hike comes at the end of October. He has only one more hike in his forecast for this year. He said the economy has outperformed his expectations. A hawk without a push for October makes it hard to find a hiking majority. https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2026-10-01/fed-officials-wash-away-market-bets-october-rate-increase - [2026-10-08] Waller said hikes "need not come at consecutive meetings" (per Admiral Markets' summary of the speech). Axios reads the signals as one more hike at the final meeting of 2026, and another early in 2027. Waller's hypothetical 0.75pt cumulative path is consistent with a spaced-out pace. This is a primary hawkish-bloc voice endorsing the spacing argument. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/fed-rate-decision-october-2026 and https://www.axios.com/2026/10/08/interest-rate-hikes-fed-waller - [2026-10-12] Morningstar (fetched): consensus for Sept CPI is +0.5% headline and +0.2% core, with core y/y steady at 2.4%. Core is moderating, and the headline rise is almost all energy. Franklin Templeton's Schulze expects the Fed to stay on hold "barring an upside surprise" well beyond consensus. FedWatch was 22% on Oct 12, down from 55% right after the Sept decision. https://www.morningstar.com/economy/cpi-forecasts-show-moderated-inflation-september-keeping-fed-hold - [2026-10-12] MUFG says core has to surprise to the upside to revive October hike pricing. An in-line 0.2% core keeps October pricing "subdued". Only a repeat of August's 0.3% core would revive back-to-back bets. Bank of America says the print may not move expectations toward an October hike. So a Yes route needs a hot core print and then a committee reversal of its own guidance. https://investinglive.com/news/mufg-us-cpi-seen-at-3-6-core-must-surprise-to-revive-an-october-fed-hike/ and https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/welcome-back-to-earnings-season-what-to-watch-this-week-100000102.html - [2026-10-12] Barclays says to expect a hold in October and a 25bp hike deferred to December. Both Barclays and Morgan Stanley forecast core CPI at +0.24%, below August's 0.29%. This is a bank forecast, not a Fed statement. https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/u-s-cpi-to-decide-fed-s-october-rate-decision - [2026-10-08] Mechanism for the minutes: they gave no October language. Participants also discussed how rising long-term yields are already restraining activity, and a few suggested preparing tools for bond-market strain. Yields at multi-decade highs are an argument for patience, not for a surprise hike. Futures put the October hold at 82.8% after the minutes, up from 80.1% a day earlier. https://en.sedaily.com/international/2026/10/08/most-fed-officials-back-one-more-rate-hike-this-year - [2026-10-12] Timing arithmetic: the blackout starts Sat Oct 17 and runs to Oct 29. So the only guidance before the meeting comes in the Oct 12–16 window (CPI Oct 14, Warsh Oct 15, Waller, Bowman, Hammack, Barkin, Collins). The Fed would have to re-signal within these five days, or hike with no warning. Warsh has openly rejected forward guidance, which gives him room to surprise, but Williams and Jefferson have already given the guidance. This meeting has no SEP, and December does. The next dot plot is at the Dec 8–9 meeting, where the Sept median hike fits naturally. https://www.yxinsights.com/p/fomc-meeting-schedule and https://pro.thestreet.com/market-commentary/the-week-ahead-buckle-up - [2026-10-02] September payrolls rose 29k and wage growth was weaker than expected. Morningstar (Oct 12) says Schulze reads the report as showing labor-driven inflation is not a problem. Consumer confidence fell to 81.9 from 88.6 in September. The growth data give doves a reason to wait. https://en.sedaily.com/international/2026/09/30/feds-no-2-says-no-rush-on-rate-hike-tilting-odds-to-holding and https://www.morningstar.com/economy/cpi-forecasts-show-moderated-inflation-september-keeping-fed-hold - [2026-10-07] Midterms are Nov 3, a week after the meeting. This is a reported timing argument from an InvestingLive analyst, not an official one. The Fed's formal position is that politics plays no role. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/fed-rate-decision-october-2026 - [2026-10-12] Resolution technicalities: this is a literal threshold test of the upper bound above 4.00%, so 4.00% exactly resolves No. The current upper bound is 4.00%. No intermeeting action is likely to matter, since the contract reads the range after the Oct 28 meeting. The only non-Oct-28 route to Yes would be an unscheduled hike before then, which I found no evidence of. A cut is not in play (0% cut odds per colleagues). https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm BOTTOM LINE: The status quo (hold at 3.75–4.00%) resolves No, and the Fed's two top leaders have explicitly guided against a back-to-back hike. Consensus is for a soft core CPI, and the Fed's next natural hiking venue is Dec 8–9 with a new SEP. Yes needs a hot core CPI on Oct 14 or an energy-driven turn in Warsh's rhetoric by Oct 16, plus a reversal of the Williams/Jefferson guidance. NOT FOUND: Any official Fed statement ruling out October outright. The Sept CPI result itself, which is not out until Oct 14. Axios was blocked (403), so its content comes from the snippet. Note that sources disagree on the CPI release date (Oct 14 in most, Oct 15 in a Morningstar line).