Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting? — Fed maintains rate

- [2026-09-16] The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the target range 25bp to 3.75–4.00%. This was the first hike since 2023, and the Fed's own press-conference PDF confirms it. The target range stands at 3.75–4.00% as of today. https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20260916.pdf - [2026-09-16] The September SEP median shows one more 25bp hike in 2026, ending the year at 4.1%. Sixteen of 18 participants expect at least one more hike, and four of those expect two. The median shows no change in 2027. A year-end 4.1% median therefore implies a hike at Oct or Dec, and Dec is the last meeting of the year. https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/portfolio-insights/fixed-income/fixed-income-perspectives/fomc-statement-september-2026/ - [2026-10-07] The Fed released the Sept 15–16 minutes (fetched). They said inflation was elevated, with PCE at 3.8% in August and core at 3.4%. Unemployment was 4.1%, and labor conditions were stable with some signs of gradual tightening. TD's read of the minutes is that most participants saw another hike as appropriate by year-end, while each meeting stays live and data-dependent. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260916.htm and https://economics.td.com/us-fomc-minutes - [2026-10-02] The September jobs report was weak: +29k payrolls against 88k expected. Unemployment rose to 4.2% from 4.1%. Analysts said this likely keeps the Fed on hold in October, with the focus staying on inflation. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/weak-september-jobs-report-likely-to-keep-fed-on-hold-for-october-with-focus-still-on-inflation-132523600.html - [2026-10-01] NY Fed's Williams said there is "no need for urgency." He added that one more hike might be appropriate "late this year." Vice Chair Jefferson was similarly cautious. Kalshi and CME odds for an October hike fell from about 64% to about 27% in a week. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-still-track-hike-interest-074804267.html - [2026-10-12] Investing.com's CME-based monitor shows October 28 pricing at 79.3% hold and 20.7% hike. https://www.investing.com/central-banks/fed-rate-monitor - [2026-10-12] Fed's Hammack said she sees no restraint in the economy. She prefers "smaller, more frequent adjustments" to larger ones, which is a hawkish lean. https://zerohedge.com/economics/key-events-week-cpi-ppi-earnings-start-and-warsh-speaks - [2026-10-11] Rateprobability.com (OIS-based) shows the target at 3.75–4.00% and a 28% hike probability for Oct 28. https://rateprobability.com/fed - [2026-10-02] Defirate cites Kalshi/Polymarket-type pricing for December: about 65–68% hike and about 30% hold. It put the chance of a hike by year-end at 72%. The Oct 28 hold was about 84%. The figures are as of about Oct 2. They may be stale and are not this contract's own price. https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/fed-decision-odds/ - [2026-09-24] After the PCE data, CME FedWatch priced December at about 10% for no change by year-end. It gave 51.8% for a cumulative 25bp hike and 38.2% for a cumulative 50bp hike. These are cumulative-by-year-end figures, and an October hike is included in them. https://phemex.com/news/article/cme-fedwatch-529-chance-fed-holds-rates-in-october-after-pce-data-98336 - [2026-10-14 to 10-15] Scheduled events: September CPI and the Beige Book on Oct 14, PPI on Oct 15, and Warsh at the IMF on Oct 15. August CPI was 3.4% y/y. The FOMC meets Oct 27–28, and the next minutes come Nov 18. The Dec 8–9 decision is the last meeting of 2026. Sources: https://coingabbar.com/en/fed-crypto-events-this-week-cpi-ppi-fomc-fed-news-bitcoin-price, https://fedratecalc.com/fomc-minutes-release-schedule/ - [2026-08-28] Warsh's Jackson Hole speech called PCE inflation of 3.7% "concerning." He described the labor market as consistent with full employment. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/warsh20260828a.htm - [2026-10-12] Context: crude oil is about $90.7 and the 10-year yield is about 5.3%. The Middle East and energy shock is the inflation driver. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/weak-september-jobs-report-likely-to-keep-fed-on-hold-for-october-with-focus-still-on-inflation-132523600.html BOTTOM LINE: The Fed is at 3.75–4.00% after a September hike. The committee leans toward one more hike by year-end, and the median dot and the minutes support that. Markets are split between October and December for that hike, so "maintain" on Dec 9 largely depends on whether the Oct 28 hike happens. A hike on Oct 28 would make a December hold more likely, while an October hold leaves December as the main hike window. Soft jobs data and the Oct 14 CPI are the swing factors. NOT FOUND: A live CME FedWatch reading for Dec 9 alone. A Kalshi December-specific order book was deliberately not searched. Any announced FOMC cancellation. The fomccalendars page could not be fetched.

- [2026-09-16] The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the fed funds target by 25bp to 3.75–4.00%. It was the first hike since 2023. The September SEP median shows year-end 2026 at 4.1%, i.e. one more 25bp hike. Sixteen of 18 participants expect at least one more hike, and the median shows no change in 2027. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/07/fed-officials-see-another-hike-coming-but-no-sign-as-to-when-minutes-show.html - [2026-10-07] The September minutes say "most participants" judged another hike "likely appropriate by year end". They also say officials approach each meeting "with an open mind" and that decisions depend on incoming data. The minutes give no timing. CNBC notes the Fed next decides Oct 28 and Dec 9. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/07/fed-officials-see-another-hike-coming-but-no-sign-as-to-when-minutes-show.html - [2026-10-07] Reuters/US News: investors "overwhelmingly" expect a hold on Oct 28. Views are split: Logan wants at least two more hikes, while Williams is more patient. https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2026-10-07/fed-minutes-could-detail-rate-hike-decision-policy-path - [2026-10-07] Reports say September payrolls were only +29k (about 90k expected). August core PCE was 3.0% and headline 3.4%, both below expectations. Futures-implied October hike odds fell from about 70% to about 20%. One secondary source puts December hike pricing at about 81%. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/fomc-minutes-october-2026 - [2026-10-12] Kalshi/Polymarket aggregator, fetched: the Dec 9 hike probability is about 75–76%, with hold about 23%. Oct 28 is about 20% hike and 81% hold. Any hike before 2027 is about 80%. https://defirate.com/odds/fed-decision/ (Kalshi's December hold ("maintains") was 29% on about Oct 5, per the Kalshi page below.) - [2026-10-05] The Kalshi December decision page shows Hike 25bp at 70%, Fed maintains at 29%, and Hike >25bp at 3% (snapshot dated about 7 days before today). https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26dec - [2026-10-12] A CME FedWatch aggregator (Growbeansprout) shows an 80.5% chance of a hold at the "upcoming meeting" (Oct 28). It does not give December pricing. https://growbeansprout.com/tools/fedwatch - [2026-10-09] Fed funds futures price about 4.1% by January 2027 (effective rate currently 3.88%). That implies roughly one more hike by early 2027. The 3-months-ahead pricing was 4.23% two weeks earlier. https://streetstats.finance/rates/fedfunds - [2026-10-09] The Cleveland Fed nowcast has September CPI at 3.60% y/y and core PCE at about 3.0–3.1%. Inflation is still well above the 2% target. https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting - Base rate: the Fed has held at roughly 60–70% of meetings historically. In a tightening phase with the median dot signalling another hike by year-end, the hold share is lower. This is from general knowledge and I did not source it in this session. Market-implied hold pricing for December moved from about 16% (mid-Aug/Sep, one source) to about 23–29% now. - Market pricing has swung a lot in about 6 weeks. The October hike probability went from about 70% to about 20%, and December hold odds from about 16% to about 25%. This shows sensitivity to data. Key upcoming data: September CPI on Oct 14, the Oct 28 meeting, and the November jobs and CPI reports before Dec 9. - A cancelled meeting is a negligible risk. Dec 9 is a scheduled FOMC date. https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2025/11/29/what-to-expect-for-interest-rates-in-2026/ BOTTOM LINE: Market pricing and the Fed's own dot plot both favour a 25bp hike on Dec 9, with "Fed maintains rate" (this contract) priced around 23–29%. That figure has been rising as data softens, and the mid-sized uncertainty reflects two months of data before the meeting. NOT FOUND: Direct CME FedWatch December probabilities as of Oct 12 (the investing.com snapshots were stale, about 24 and 75 days old). Any track record of Kalshi's Fed markets in a hiking cycle. A sourced historical hold frequency. A Fed official speech after Oct 7 on December timing.

YES means: the FOMC leaves the target range at 3.75–4.00% on Dec 9, 2026 (or the meeting is cancelled), with no change at that meeting. - [2026-10-12] **Most likely path to YES.** The Fed hikes on Oct 28, which fulfils the "one more hike" in the September dots. It then holds on Dec 9. Kalshi's Oct 28 hike contract is about 15–17%, with hold at about 83–85% ([defirate](https://defirate.com/odds/fed-decision/) and [Kalshi Oct page](https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26oct)). Prerequisites: a hot Sept 14 CPI print, specifically core at 0.3% m/m or higher, and hawks such as Logan and Goolsbee carrying the committee. This is the lower-probability path. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/us-cpi-september-2026-scenarios-fed-october - [2026-10-12] **Second path: October hold, then December hold.** The hike is not cancelled but pushed back or dropped. The Sept 14 CPI previews show a split between headline and core. Headline is forecast at about 3.6–3.7% y/y, driven by energy. Core is forecast at 0.2% m/m, about 2.4–2.5% y/y. Core CPI is therefore near target, and the shock is energy-led. A committee that treats the oil spike as a supply shock could stand pat. https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/us-inflation-data-preview-september-cpi-and-what-it-means-for-markets-93CH-4945005 - [2026-10-08] **Waller's own wording leaves room.** Fed Governor Waller said hikes depend on data "continuing to come in as expected". He said there is "some flexibility" on timing, and that hikes need not come at consecutive meetings. His conditions for a hike were low unemployment, ongoing growth and little progress on inflation. The Sept 2 jobs miss (+29k, unemployment 4.2%) and the soft August core PCE (3.0% vs 3.3% expected) cut against those conditions. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20261008a.htm and https://theglobeandmail.com/business/economy/article-us-fed-governor-christopher-waller-rate-path-october-meeting - [2026-10-08] **Market pricing leaves a large no-hike tail.** Per Waller, futures had an 85% chance of at least one hike by December and nearly 20% of two. That leaves about 15% on no hike at all. The same futures show a 68.6% chance of exactly one hike ([24/7 Wall St](https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/08/every-fed-official-backed-septembers-hike-most-want-one-more-before-new-years/)). On Kalshi, the Dec 9 hold contract ("maintains") was 29% on about Oct 5, and Dec 9 hike probability was in the low-to-mid 70s. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26dec - [2026-10-12] **Forward markets price the later-dated hikes.** Jan 2027 is 34% hike and 66% hold. Mar 2027 is 58% hike. That is consistent with the committee's "flexibility" on timing. A slip from Dec to Jan or Mar is a plausible route to a December hold. https://defirate.com/odds/fed-decision/ - [2026-10-07] **Dovish and patient voices.** Bowman said there is no urgent need for more hikes this year, and Williams supported her ([FXStreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-minutes-set-to-provide-some-insight-into-the-timing-of-next-rate-hikes-202610071400)). On Oct 2, Jefferson and Williams both preferred more data before acting ([BNN Bloomberg](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/economics/2026/10/02/fed-may-skip-october-but-pull-us-rate-hike-trigger-in-december/)). Those two sit at the leadership core, and Williams is the New York Fed president. ING calls a December hike the base case, but only as a base case. https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-minutes-set-to-provide-some-insight-into-the-timing-of-next-rate-hikes-202610071400 - [2026-09-30] **Pricing has already been unstable.** October hike odds went from about 70% to 34.87% in days, after a speech and the PCE print. Even then, FedWatch priced "hike by Dec 9" at about 100%, a cumulative figure that includes October. The same piece warns that if the odds of two hikes and no hike swap places, that signals traders are pricing a cancellation rather than a delay. Dec 9 odds are therefore sensitive to the Nov 10 CPI and Dec 4 jobs data. https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-feds-october-hike-shrinks-with-the-inflation-it-was-built-on-202609301815 - [2026-07-29] **Warsh's lean toward a hold, and no forward guidance.** The Fed held 9–3 on Jul 29, with three dissenters voting for a hike. CNBC wrote then that Warsh "arguably doesn't want higher rates right now". He has pledged to end forward guidance, so the committee is not pre-committed to Dec 9 ([Kalshi News](https://news.kalshi.com/p/fed-interest-rates-odds-76-percent-hold)). The Fed held in July and moved only in September, so it has been slow to act. Pre-election timing (midterms are one week after Oct 28) and Trump's pressure for lower rates are context. https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/prediction-markets/fed-decision-model-verdict - [2026-10-02] **Vanguard's read.** After the PCE print and the weak jobs report, Vanguard said the data strengthens the case for patience, and that the labor market has not deteriorated sharply but has not strengthened either. Both prints cut the case for urgency. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/fed-rate-hike-odds-decline-after-september-jobs-report.html - [2026-10-07] **The minutes give a soft commitment.** "Most participants" saw another hike as likely appropriate "by year end". That falls short of unanimity. The language is conditional, and future decisions are said to depend on incoming information. The dots leave two participants not expecting a further 2026 hike. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/07/fed-officials-see-another-hike-coming-but-no-sign-as-to-when-minutes-show.html - [2026-10-12] **Cancellation.** The rules resolve a cancelled meeting as "Fed maintains rate" (YES). I found no sign of any cancellation, so this adds almost nothing. https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/prediction-markets/fed-decision-model-verdict BOTTOM LINE: YES needs either an October hike that fulfils the dots, or a soft run of data (core CPI near 2.4%, weak payrolls, energy-led headline) that lets the committee defer. Market pricing leaves roughly 25–30% on hold, and the central argument is that the hike's timing is flexible. NOT FOUND: Sept CPI actuals (due Oct 14, not yet released). Any official statement ruling Dec in or out. A live CME FedWatch reading for Dec 9 alone. The Fed's Waller speech page was fetched but returned only the header, with the key passages coming from search snippets. The CNBC Oct 2 page could not be fetched, so its figures come from the search snippet.

YES means: the Fed leaves the target range unchanged at 3.75–4.00% at the Dec 8–9, 2026 FOMC, or the meeting is cancelled. I am arguing the NO side: the Fed changes rates on Dec 9, which in practice means a hike. - [2026-10-12] Hammack is a 2026 voter and dissented for a hike in July. She said "we need to put more restriction in the economy." She says the open question is timing, not direction. She called Treasury rates "modest" by historical standards, cited "early warning signs" on inflation expectations, and said the question now is how fast to tighten. A voter who has already lost the argument on October timing has December as the next natural window. https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/feds-hammack-hope-to-cool-demand-and-inflation-without-job-market-pain-4945244 ; https://investinglive.com/central-banks/fed-s-hammack-treasury-rates-are-modest-by-historical-standards/ - [2026-10-01] Logan (Dallas Fed) said the range needs to rise "an additional 50 basis points or more." The Sept 16 hike covered only part of that. She also said the labor market and the economy remain strong. This is a second voter-level hawk whose stated path needs at least a December move, and she may press for more than 25bp. Any hike, including 25bp, resolves this contract NO. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-logan-says-more-rate-002205370.html - [2026-10-07] Several minutes details (via ABC/AP, Hill, Wealth Professional) add to the Oct 7 minutes: officials were unanimous that inflation was elevated with little progress toward 2%. "Many" saw the prior policy rate as not restrictive or only mildly restrictive. Vice Chair Barr said further adjustments are likely. A committee that thinks policy is only mildly restrictive after one hike has little reason to stop at 3.75–4.00%. https://wealthprofessional.ca/news/industry-news/fed-minutes-show-most-officials-back-another-2026-rate-hike/393732 ; https://thehill.com/business/6135206-fed-officials-project-future-increases/ - [2026-10-12] Futures-derived pricing: centralbank.watch showed a 78.9% cumulative hike probability for Dec 9, with Oct 28 at 17.9% hike and 82.1% hold. These figures are cumulative, so an October hike would be included in the December number. Its page carries an "age 226 days" tag, so the snapshot may be stale. CME FedWatch via Mitrade was "near 70%" for December (Oct 10). Phemex reported a 25bp hike as "fully priced" for December (Oct 12-ish). The sources agree on roughly 70–80% or more for a December hike. https://centralbank.watch/federal-reserve/ ; https://www.mitrade.com/insights/more/inflation/us-cpi-preview-december-fed-hike-20261010J1122 ; https://phemex.com/news/article/us-september-cpi-data-to-test-fed-rate-hike-expectations-as-gold-direction-remains-unclear-99409 - [2026-10-10] The sell-side has converged on a December hike. Barclays expects a hold in October and a hike in December. Goldman leans December. Admiral's Oct 9 survey found 1 of 14 brokerages expecting an October hike, and its table put "hike by December" at 75–85%. Capital Economics (Sept) projected a December hike followed by a March 2027 hike. Their stated path to a hold on Dec 9 would be a hike already delivered in October, which the same houses say is unlikely. https://www.mitrade.com/insights/more/inflation/us-cpi-preview-december-fed-hike-20261010J1122 ; https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/fed-rate-decision-october-2026 ; https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fed-rate-hike-september-likelihood-cpi/ - [2026-10-12/13] Energy inflation inputs are worsening, not fading. Brent is above $104–107 after a Houthi attack on a Saudi airport. An "energy ceasefire" has failed. The dollar is at an 18-month high and the 10-year yield is about 5.24% (5.36% spike on Oct 7, the highest since 2007). September CPI consensus is 3.7% y/y headline, with Barclays estimating gasoline up about 9% m/m. Core CPI is 2.4–2.5% and tame, which is the main dovish counterpoint. Further oil spikes raise pressure to keep hiking. https://www.mitrade.com/insights/more/inflation/us-cpi-preview-december-fed-hike-20261010J1122 - [2026-09-16 / 07-29] Chair Warsh's reaction function is hawkish. At the Sept 16 presser he said inflation was "too high ... for too long." At the July 29 presser he said "no soft implicit target." Warsh was criticised for a hold in July that drew three dissents. The September 12-0 vote shows he built consensus for hiking after that. He also avoids forward guidance, so he gives himself room to hike with little warning. Having flipped from hold to hike once under dissent pressure, a second hold into a December SEP meeting would cost him credibility. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html ; https://www.axios.com/2026/07/29/fed-warsh-rates-inflation - [2026-10-12] The December meeting carries a new SEP and dot plot. The September median shows 4.1% at end-2026, which is only reached by a hike in October or December. Skipping December would mean the Fed missing its own published dot after only one hike. https://fedratecalc.com/fomc-meeting-schedule/ - [2026-10-12] Cancellation is not a realistic route to YES. Dec 8–9 is on the official calendar, and the Hill piece lists it as one of two remaining 2026 meetings. I found no sign of any change. https://thehill.com/business/6135206-fed-officials-project-future-increases/ - [2026-10-02] Counter-evidence the NO case must beat: September payrolls were +29k, and unemployment rose to 4.2%. October hike odds fell from about 70% to about 18%. Williams said "no need for urgency." The Fed's own minutes say each meeting is approached "with an open mind." Even so, the market response moved the hike timing from October to December and did not remove it. December hike pricing stayed roughly at or above 70%. The NO case therefore needs only that the labor market not crack further and that energy-driven headline inflation persist. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/fed-rate-hike-odds-decline-after-september-jobs-report.html (snippet only; page fetch failed) - [2026-10-12] Two further dated points for the NO side. Polymarket's "Fed rate cut by…" market shows December 2026 cut odds at 1%, so a cut cannot rescue a "maintain" outcome. And if the Fed does hike in October, a December hold becomes more likely (see the colleague reports), so the NO case depends on an October hold or on a second hike after October. https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-cut-by-629 BOTTOM LINE: The strongest NO case rests on four things. Two voting hawks (Hammack, Logan) want more tightening, the minutes and the September dots call for another hike by year-end, the sell-side sees December as the hike month, and energy inflation has worsened. Futures put a December hike at roughly 70–80%. A hold needs either an October hike that pulls the move forward or a data break (further labor weakness or a soft CPI). NOT FOUND: A live CME FedWatch reading for Dec 9 alone. Any official's statement after Oct 12 on December timing. The Oct 14 CPI result. A fetched CNBC Oct 2 page (it failed), so its figures rest on search snippets. A reliable history of Kalshi Fed markets in a hiking cycle.