Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?

- [2026-10-12] I could not read the resolution page. tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html returned HTTP 468 to fetch_url, and a browser render showed only a SafeLine WAF "Confirm You Are Human" challenge. The CMA best-track page therefore has not been checked for 2026 entries. The figures below come from CMA/NMC statements and media. https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html - [2026-09-29] A CMA press briefing, reported by CCTV/Beijing News, gave China's 2026 landfall count as 7. That compares with a norm of 6.5 for the full year. The report said 26 typhoons had formed in the NW Pacific and South China Sea this year, against a norm of 18.3. https://m.bjnews.com.cn/detail/1790661908129043.html - [2026-09-15] Beijing News (京报网) listed the 7 landfallers as Maysak, Bavi, Hongxia, Dolphin (白海豚), Noul (紫檀), Chan-hom (简拉维) and Saudel. That is 7 by 1 September against a normal 4.9. https://news.bjd.com.cn/2026/09/15/11960071.shtml - [2026-08-06] Xinhua called Dolphin the 4th typhoon to land in China, after Maysak, Bavi and Hongxia. Dolphin landed in Zhejiang on 9 Aug and Saudel in Zhejiang on 28 Aug, so the sequence is consistent. https://www.news.cn/politics/20260806/77d76d9860714a439cec3000f550d851/c.html - [2026-09-29] CMA said September had only 3 typhoon formations and "fewer" landfalls than normal. Saudel is counted as one storm despite landing twice and then landing again after revival. https://m.gmw.cn/2026-09/29/content_1304569831.htm - [2026-09-17 to 2026-09-28] Dujuan (No. 25) formed on 16 Sep. It passed near Japan and was forecast to have no impact on China's coast. Wikipedia lists it as extratropical by 22 Sep. I found no China landfall for it. https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20260917A03GX900 - [2026-09-12] A South China Sea tropical depression brought rain to Hainan and Guangdong. The NMC judged it unlikely to become a numbered typhoon and expected it to head toward central Vietnam. I found no sign that it landed in China as a named storm. https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20260912A04WXR00 - [2026-10-01] Typhoon No. 27, Caiyun (彩云), formed on 1 Oct at 16.4N 148.3E, well east of China. The later systems Surigae, Choi-wan, Koguma and Nolo were all far out in the Pacific. I found no report that any of them landed in China. https://taifengshuo.com/news/2026-10-01 - [2026-10-12] Japan's tenki.jp says Typhoon No. 29 is a very strong typhoon near the Ogasawara Islands, moving away from Japan. Two new tropical depressions sit near the Marianas and Marshall Islands. They would become No. 30 if they develop, and no forecast tracks them to China yet. https://tenki.jp/forecaster/domoto_yukiyo/2026/10/12/40941.html - [2026-09-29 and 2026-10-02] The CMA and the national disaster-reduction committee forecast 3–4 formations in October. They expect 1–2 typhoons to land in or clearly affect China, against a norm of 0.5 landings. They expect tracks mostly northwestward or westward, hitting the South China coast. https://m.gmw.cn/2026-10/02/content_1304571029.htm - [2026-09-15] The National Climate Center expects 2–4 typhoons to land in or affect China over autumn, against a norm of 2.2. The pre-season forecast was 7–9 landfalls for the year. https://news.bjd.com.cn/2026/09/15/11960071.shtml - [2026-10-12] The Wikipedia season page (fetched) shows 43 JMA depressions and 29 named storms, with the season ongoing. It does not give a landfall total for China. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Pacific_typhoon_season - [2026-10-01] CMA-linked reports say a record-strength El Niño is expected around November. https://taifengshuo.com/news/2026-10-01 BOTTOM LINE: As of 12 Oct, CMA/NMC count 7 China landfalls for 2026, with no later landfall found. More than 8 therefore needs at least 2 more landfall entries (a 9th) by the end of December. CMA forecasts 1–2 October landings or impacts, and no current system is forecast to reach China. The official best-track list may differ from the real-time count, for example by including tropical depression-level landings. NOT FOUND: the current content of the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page, which sits behind a WAF; any confirmed China landfall after Saudel (28 Aug); a forecast track for the two new depressions to China; the Typhoon Committee 2026 report.

- [2026-09-29] CMA's National Meteorological Center said that, as of 9/29, 26 typhoons had formed in the NW Pacific and South China Sea, and 7 had made landfall in China, against a norm of 6.5 for the same period. Mean landfall intensity was 31.6 m/s. This is the operational count and probably includes only tropical-storm-strength landfalls and above. https://www.sohu.com/a/1082380876_121332524 - [2026-09-29] CMA's October outlook expects 3–4 typhoons to form and 1–2 to make landfall in China (norm 0.5) or clearly affect it. That wording is "landfall or clearly affect", so it is not a pure landfall forecast. https://m.gmw.cn/2026-09/29/content_1304569930.htm - [2026-09-29] CMA said September had few typhoon formations and landfalls, with Sudel (Shaowdel) landing in China again after its designation was dropped. That landfall was already included in the 7. https://m.gmw.cn/2026-09/29/content_1304569930.htm - [2026-10-12] Typhoons 27 (Choi-wan/"彩云"), 28 (Nolo) and 29 (Koguma) formed in early October. Chinese reports say none of the three will affect China's waters. Koguma was at 40 m/s near 30.5°N 148.1°E on 10/12, far east of China. Models flag possible further development in mid-October, with no China landfall indicated. https://sohu.com/a/1084541319_121123827 - [2026-07-03] The first China landfall of 2026 was Maysak (No. 10), which made landfall on 7/3 in Sanya–Qionghai, Hainan. That was about 5 days later than the 6/27 norm. https://www.foshanplus.com/news/1046097.html - [2026-08-09] Landfalls since then: Bavi on 7/11 in Zhejiang, Dolphin at Yuhuan, Zhejiang on 8/9 , Hongxia in Guangdong in late August (Baidu/Wikipedia), then Sudel. One storm in the 7 is not identified in these sources. Wikipedia's season list mixes names and appears unreliable, so I did not use it for the count. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Dolphin_(2026) - [2026-04-17] The pre-season forecast from the National Climate Center was 24–26 formations, with 7–9 landfalls in China, above normal. The 7 landfalls so far sit at the bottom of that range. https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-04-17/doc-inhuuptn1068762.shtml?froms=ggmp - [2025 paper] Historical base rate, 1949–2022: 655 landfalls over 74 years, about 8.85 per year. The range was 4 (1982) to 15 (1952, 1961). The frequency has declined significantly since the 1990s. The 2010s had the fewest landfalls, 80 in the decade. This count is probably broader than the CMA operational count. https://www.geogsci.com/EN/abstract/article/1009-637X/73443 - [2013 CMA] Narrower counts differ. CMA stated that, over the past 25 years, 6–7 TCs a year made landfall on the mainland and Hainan. Other papers cite 7–8 or about 9 per year. The CMA 1991–2020 operational norm is about 6.5 through 9/29, which implies roughly 7 for a full year. https://www.cma.gov.cn/en/SciandTech/201307/t20130709_218970.html - [2026-10-12] The resolving CMA page (tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) was blocked by a WAF (HTTP 468) in both fetch_url and render_url. I could not read its current 2026 list. The best-track list can include weak depressions and systems that landed in Hainan or Taiwan, so it may count more than the operational "7". https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html - [2026-09-29] Climatology for the remainder: the norm for the whole of October is 0.5 landfalls. November–December add little, typically 0–1 combined. Reaching more than 8 (9 or more) needs at least 2 more qualifying landfalls if the count is 7, or 1 more if the best-track page already lists 8. https://m.gmw.cn/2026-09/29/content_1304569930.htm - [2026-10-10] People's Daily's science outlet (kpzg.people.com.cn) repeats the CMA outlook of 1–2 October typhoons, mainly affecting South China, and says Bavi, Dolphin and Sudel all landed at the same Yuhuan street. It gives no new count. http://kpzg.people.com.cn/n1/2026/1010/c404214-40811683.html BOTTOM LINE: China's official count stood at 7 landfalls as of 9/29, and the active systems as of 10/12 show no China threat. Historical full-year totals of 9 or more are uncommon in the recent era (the norm is about 6.5–7 operationally and 7–9 in broader counts). Resolution therefore depends mainly on whether the CMA best-track page counts more than the operational 7, and on whether 1–2 late-season landfalls occur. NOT FOUND: The current contents of the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page for 2026 (blocked). A confirmed list of all 7 operational landfalls. Any other market or sibling-bracket odds for this event.

YES means: the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page lists 9 or more tropical cyclones making landfall in China for 2026 (more than 8). Each storm counts once. - [2026-09-02] CMA gave 7 landfalls as of 1 Sept, against a norm of 4.9 (fetched). That count was already reached before Saudel's revival. The "7 by 1 Sept" figure and the later "7 by 29 Sept" figure are the same number. September added no new landfall to the operational count. The earlier 7 therefore carry the YES case. https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/shipin/cns-d/2026/09-02/news1067502.shtml - [2026-04-17] The pre-season forecast of 7–9 landfalls (CMA/CNR, repeated 8 May) put 9 at the top of the range. The forecast also said the last landfall would come earlier than normal and that summer would be more active than autumn. That cuts against a late-season YES. https://news.cnr.cn/native/gd/kx/20260416/t20260416_527587203.shtml - [2026-09-02] CMA's autumn outlook (fetched) is 2–4 typhoons landing in or affecting China, against a norm of 2.2. It expects tracks to be mostly westward or northwestward, hitting South and East China. It also says one typhoon may go north. The "landing or affecting" wording covers more than landfalls. Since 1 Sept, only the late-Aug Saudel re-landfall and no other storm has been added. https://www.chinanews.com.cn/sh/shipin/cns-d/2026/09-02/news1067502.shtml - [2026-10-12] The CMA data centre's Chinese page is indexed with a 2025 update note. It says the landing-point list gained Daishan in 2024 and Dongtou in 2025. Each added landing-point island makes it easier to log a landfall, and the page's TD category (10.8–17.1 m/s) means weak depressions can qualify. The best-track list can therefore exceed the operational count of 7. The page itself returned HTTP 468 to me, so I could not read the 2026 rows. https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/dlrdqx.html - [2026-10-12] Wikipedia and Baidu detail extra landfall-type events that may be listed separately. Bavi had a second landfall at Yueqing on 12 July. Maysak made a second landfall in Guangxi after Hainan. Saudel landed, re-formed over the South China Sea and landed again. Hongxia (also called Noul in some lists) hit Huidong on 26 July. This is an extra reason the CMA list could differ from 7, though the page counts each storm once. https://zh.wikipedia.org/zh-hans/2026%E5%B9%B4%E5%A4%AA%E5%B9%B3%E6%B4%8B%E9%A2%B1%E9%A2%A8%E5%AD%A3 - [2026-09-23] Baidu's season page (search snippet; the fetch was refused) shows the CMA numbered 24 systems by 30 Aug and had issued tropical-depression-level counts. Its English version mentions "Zitan" (2619) in the Beibu Gulf. Naming in these sources is inconsistent, so I could not verify an 8th storm. The CMA's own list may include a depression-level or Beibu Gulf landfall that the press count of 7 omits. https://baike.baidu.com/en/item/2026%20Pacific%20Typhoon%20Season/1418136 - [2026-09-15] Weathernews' mid-season update expects 11–12 more named storms after September, which is roughly normal. It says October risk concentrates south of Japan and across the South China Sea. A South China Sea focus is the classic route for late-season China landfalls, such as Matmo on 6 Oct 2025 in Guangxi. https://sea.weathernews.com/resources/202609/232 - [2026-10-12] The NMC and Shanghai trackers show the active systems well away from China. Koguma (No. 29) was at 30.5N 148.1E, moving NE at 34 km/h, and Nolo was weakening on 10 Oct. This is not a YES path now. YES needs a new South China Sea or Philippine Sea development in the second half of October or November. https://bmxx.swj.sh.gov.cn/typhoon/ BOTTOM LINE: The YES case needs 2 more CMA landfalls beyond the 7 in the press count, or the page listing 8 already plus 1 more. The best-supported route is that the CMA best-track list counts weak depression-level or island landings above 7, plus one October–November South China Sea storm of the kind CMA is forecasting. Nothing currently active points that way. NOT FOUND: The 2026 rows of the CMA Landfalling TCs page (WAF block, HTTP 468). Any confirmed China landfall after Saudel in August. Any forecast track taking the two new October depressions toward China. A confirmed list naming all 7 storms.

YES means: the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page lists 9 or more tropical cyclones making landfall in China for 2026, i.e. more than 8. NO means 8 or fewer. - [2025-12 Typhoon Committee member report, fetched] This is a method point and it cuts partly against NO. China's own year-end tally of landfallers includes Taiwan landings. Of the 10 listed for 2025, Danas, Podul and Fung-wong all had Taiwan landfalls. Fung-wong's was a Taiwan landfall alone on 12 Nov. The 2025 table is flagged as preliminary operational data "subject to change in the final best track". The count also drops tropical depression-level cases. Kajiki, Nongfa, Bualoi and Kalmaegi were treated as non-landfalling in the table. So a late-season Taiwan or Hainan touch would count. A passing storm that skirts the coast would not. https://typhooncommittee.org/20IWS/docs/Members%20REport/CHina/Member%20Report%20of%20China%20for%20Typhoon%20Committee%20IWS20.pdf - [2025-12 same report] The 2025 count of 10 was reached with 26 formations, by 24 Nov. 2025 was described as 2.9 above the multi-year average of 7.1 for the period. The 7.1 baseline supports the NO argument. Even a heavy South China year reached only 10, and 2026 is sitting at 7 with fewer formations in the pipeline pointed at China. https://typhooncommittee.org/20IWS/docs/Members%20REport/CHina/Member%20Report%20of%20China%20for%20Typhoon%20Committee%20IWS20.pdf - [2025 monthly landfall climatology, same report, Fig 1.5] The 1991–2020 monthly landfall means in the chart are roughly 0.5 for October, near 0.05 for November, and near 0 for December. The figure reading is approximate. In 2025 the late-season landfalls were one in October (Matmo) and one in November (Fung-wong, Taiwan). Reaching 9 from 7 needs two more landfalls in about 11 weeks. That is about 4 times the climatological expectation of roughly 0.6 for the rest of the year. https://typhooncommittee.org/20IWS/docs/Members%20REport/CHina/Member%20Report%20of%20China%20for%20Typhoon%20Committee%20IWS20.pdf - [2026-09-29 CMA briefing, fetched] The CMA's own wording says September formations and landfalls were both below normal. The October outlook is "1–2 typhoons landing or clearly affecting" China, so it is an upper-bound mix and not a landfall count. The CMA's own norm for October is 0.5 landfalls. Even if both outlook storms landed (the high end of the range), the total would be 9 only if the starting count is 7 and none is dropped. Storms that merely "affect" China do not count. https://www.21jingji.com/article/20260929/herald/9889a5aafa4ba5efab4eb367ee0f27c7.html - [2026-09-29 same briefing] The outlook says tracks are mostly northwestward or westward, aimed at the South China coast. Typhoon No. 27 formed on 1 Oct at 16.4N 148.3E, east of 147E. By 4 Oct it was a 52 m/s super typhoon at 21.3N 147.2E, which is far from China. The Zhejiang typhoon tracker shows this. That supports the colleagues' point that the early-October systems were recurving. The outlook's 1–2 storms had none confirmed as of 12 Oct. https://typhoon.slt.zj.gov.cn/index.html - [2026-09 Weathernews mid-season update] Weathernews projects 11–12 more formations from September, about normal. It also says genesis is shifted farther east than usual, with the main risk zone from October south of Japan and across the South China Sea. Eastward genesis lengthens recurvature odds. It is a commercial forecast and not a CMA one. https://sea.weathernews.com/resources/202609/232 - [2026-04 Hainan outlook, citing NCC] The El Niño mechanism is stated as: storms form further east and are more likely to curve away before reaching the South China Sea. The NCC's 7–9 landfall forecast for the year was described as close to average. The year sits at the bottom of that range at 7, with the late-season El Niño peak expected around November per colleagues. The 7–9 forecast put 9 at the top edge of the range, not its centre. https://www.tropicalhainan.com/typhoon-season-2026-what-hainan-residents-can-expect-in-the-coming-months/ - [Historical base rates] Older studies cite an annual average of 9 landfalls for 1949–2006, and another cites "8 to 10". CMA's recent operational norm is about 7. Those earlier figures are inflated by the pre-1990s era, which colleagues note was higher, whereas the recent norm is the better guide. Using the 7.1 norm means 9 or more needs a clear overshoot. https://www.cma.gov.cn/en/NewsReleases/MetInstruments/201310/P020131016599696618233.pdf - [Resolution mechanics] The CMA "Landfalling TCs" page is a best-track listing. It is not the operational tally that said 7 on 29 Sep. Colleagues could not read it, and I did not retry. The page can include landfalls that the real-time count excludes, such as Taiwan or depression-grade cases. The Typhoon Committee 2025 report shows China counts Taiwan. That is the main route to YES: the best-track list may already show 8, so a single further landfall would give 9. I found no source showing the page's 2026 total. - [2026-09-17 to 2026-10-12, colleagues' reports] Dujuan went extratropical near Japan. Nos. 27–29 stayed far out in the Pacific. No China landfall was found after Saudel (28 Aug), so the count has been flat for about six weeks. Status quo inertia favours 7 or 8 at year-end. BOTTOM LINE: The operational count was 7 on 29 Sep with nothing since. Reaching 9 needs two more qualifying landfalls, against a climatological expectation of about 0.6 for the rest of the year and an El Niño that favours recurvature. The main uncertainty for NO is that the CMA best-track page might already list 8, because it includes Taiwan and weak landings. NOT FOUND: the current 2026 contents of the CMA "Landfalling TCs" page (blocked by a WAF, not retried); any China landfall after Saudel; the Typhoon Committee 2026 report; and the 2026 forecast for the two newest tropical depressions.