Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting? — Fed maintains rate

- [2026-09-16] The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the target range by 25bp to 3.75–4.00%. This was the first hike since 2023. Chair Warsh presided. The vote followed seven straight holds at 3.50–3.75% earlier in 2026. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html - [2026-09-16] The September dot plot had a median of about 4.1% for end-2026, which implies one more 25bp hike this year. Sixteen of 18 participants projected at least one more hike. Warsh submitted no dots. The October meeting has no SEP. https://www.stephens.com/perspectives/fed-funds-update-september-16-2026 - [2026-10-02] September payrolls rose only 29k, against about 88k expected. Unemployment rose to 4.2%. Vice Chair Jefferson and NY Fed's Williams had already tempered hike expectations that week. Jefferson said colleagues' judgment "may take more time". https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/weak-september-jobs-report-likely-to-keep-fed-on-hold-for-october-with-focus-still-on-inflation-132523600.html - [2026-10-07] The September FOMC minutes were released. Most participants saw another hike as likely appropriate by year-end. The minutes gave no clear plan for October specifically. Williams and others have suggested the hike could wait until the Dec 8–9 meeting. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-waller-pivots-interest-rate-171700552.html - [2026-10-08] Gov. Waller said he expects additional hikes if data come in as expected. He also said there is "some flexibility" on timing. https://zerohedge.com/economics/key-events-week-cpi-ppi-earnings-start-and-warsh-speaks - [2026-10-10] CME FedWatch showed about an 81.6% chance of a hold on Oct 28 and an 83% chance of a hike in December. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-waller-pivots-interest-rate-171700552.html - [2026-10-10] Kalshi priced a hold at about 81–84.5% and a 25bp hike at about 17%. Polymarket priced a hold at about 83.5%. Both are third-party aggregator figures. On Sept 29, CME priced an October hike at about 64–71%. https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/fed-rate-tracker - [2026-10-11] Cleveland Fed's Hammack (2026 FOMC voter) said the economy shows no sign of restraint and that "smaller, more frequent" rate adjustments are preferable. Her tone is hawkish. https://zerohedge.com/economics/key-events-week-cpi-ppi-earnings-start-and-warsh-speaks - [2026-10-12] Deutsche Bank's view is that if CPI, PPI and core PCE (about 3.0%, due Oct 29) come in near forecasts, the Fed can hold on Oct 28 and wait until December. It also cites the midterms about a week later. https://zerohedge.com/economics/key-events-week-cpi-ppi-earnings-start-and-warsh-speaks - [2026-10-14] September CPI is due Oct 14. Consensus is headline +0.6% m/m and 3.6–3.7% y/y, with core +0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y. The Beige Book is also due Oct 14. PPI is due Oct 15. https://zerohedge.com/economics/key-events-week-cpi-ppi-earnings-start-and-warsh-speaks - [2026-10-15] Chair Warsh's fireside chat with IMF MD Georgieva in Bangkok is Thursday evening ET. It is the last Fed appearance before the communications blackout. The meeting is Oct 27–28, with the decision at 2:00 PM ET on Oct 28. https://zerohedge.com/economics/key-events-week-cpi-ppi-earnings-start-and-warsh-speaks - [2026-10-11] Macro backdrop: Iran-war oil prices (crude about $93) and AI/tariff effects are keeping inflation elevated. The NY Fed's one-year inflation expectations hit 3.9% on Oct 7, the highest in three years. The 10-year yield is 5.24%. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-waller-pivots-interest-rate-171700552.html BOTTOM LINE: As of Oct 12, the Fed is at 3.75–4.00% after the September hike. Official signalling and the weak September jobs report point to a hold on Oct 28, with a December hike favoured. A hot Oct 14 CPI or a hawkish Warsh speech on Oct 15 are the main risks that could revive an October hike. NOT FOUND: Any sign the meeting will be cancelled. The Oct 14 CPI result, which is not yet out. The Fed's own page for the October decision. The live price of this contract, which I did not look for.

- [2026-10-12] Kalshi's own "Fed decision in October?" page shows "Fed maintains rate" at about 84%, a 25bp hike at 15% and a cut under 1%. Volume is about $9.25M. The market expires 2026-10-28 and the page lists 85¢ yes / 16¢ no. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26oct - [2026-10-12] A three-venue comparison for the Oct 27–28 meeting shows hold at 84.5% on Kalshi, 83.5% on Polymarket (international) and 82% on CME futures-implied. A 25bp hike is 15.5%, 16.5% and 18% on the same venues. The tracker says the market favourite won 14 of 14 Fed decisions from Jan 2025 to Sep 2026. https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/fed-rate-tracker - [2026-10-12] CNBC reports CME FedWatch at more than 78% for a hold in October and about 88% for a hike in December. https://cnbc.com/2026/10/12/beth-hammack-fed-inflation-policy.html (search snippet only; the page would not open) - [2026-10-10] Yahoo Finance, citing CME FedWatch, has hold at 81.6% for October and an 83% chance of a hike in December. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-waller-pivots-interest-rate-171700552.html (snippet) - [2026-09-16] The FOMC voted 12-0 to hike 25bp to 3.75–4.00%, its first hike since 2023. The median dot implies one more hike in 2026, and the 18-participant SEP had 16 expecting at least one more. Warsh declined to commit to the timing. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html and https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/portfolio-insights/fixed-income/fixed-income-perspectives/fomc-statement-september-2026/ - [2026-09-30] The Kalshi October hike price swung sharply. It was 65% on Sept 25 and 33% by Sept 30, after softer August PCE. https://news.kalshi.com/p/fed-rate-odds-traders-flip-to-october-hold-at-65-after-pce-report - [2026-10-07] Kalshi priced an October hike at 16.5%, down from about 69% before NY Fed's Williams said on Sept 29 that there was no urgency. This shows the price is volatile and data-driven. https://startupfortune.com/fed-rate-hike-odds-for-october-collapse-after-williams-cools-talk/ - [2026-09-xx] Kiplinger's reporter argues the politically safest path is to hike in September and December and hold in October, because the October meeting falls just before Election Day. This is opinion, not fact. https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/live/fed-meeting-updates-and-commentary-september-2026 - [2026-10-12] There is hawkish risk. September CPI is due Oct 14 and is expected at 3.7% y/y, up from 3.4%. The 10-year yield is about 5.24%. Cleveland Fed's Hammack says higher rates may be needed. One data piece, the Oct 14 CPI, falls before the meeting. https://note.com/hirokimiyano/n/n681a28348157?hl=en - [2026-10-12] Reference class from the tracker: the Fed held at 5 of 6 meetings in 2026 (Jan, Mar, Apr, Jun, Jul) and hiked in Sep. It held at 5 of 8 meetings in 2025 and cut at 3. Most holds were priced at 97% or more beforehand. The least certain call was July 2026, a hold priced at about 75%, which came true. Every pre-meeting favourite has won so far. Sep 2026 was an 87–94% hike favourite and it happened. https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/fed-rate-tracker - [2026-10-11] Another tracker shows the next-meeting hike probability at 28% (12-month view), a different method and not directly comparable to the others. https://rateprobability.com/fed - [2026-10-12] The Oct 27–28 meeting is scheduled, with the decision at 2:00 pm ET on Oct 28. I found no sign of cancellation. Cancellation would resolve "maintains" to Yes. https://growbeansprout.com/tools/fedwatch BOTTOM LINE: Markets across Kalshi, Polymarket and CME futures price a hold at about 82–85% and a 25bp hike at about 15–18%. The favourite has won every Fed decision since January 2025, but hold odds fell as low as about 31% in late September, so a hot CPI on Oct 14 or hawkish Warsh comments could move the price a lot. NOT FOUND: A Fed official's explicit October signal after Oct 10, the Oct 14 CPI result, a survey of economists' October forecasts, and a readable CNBC Hammack page (it failed to load). Aggregator pages, not primary data, supply the market figures and the tracker's past-accuracy record.

YES means: The FOMC leaves the target range unchanged at 3.75–4.00% on Oct 28, 2026 (a 0bp move). A cancelled meeting would also resolve this Yes. - [2026-10-02] Reuters (Saphir) says policymakers were already leaning against a second straight hike so they could review more data. The weak jobs report left that approach intact. JPMorgan's Feroli said it "would now take a very strong CPI to make the October meeting live". He expects the next hike in December, not October. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-may-skip-october-pull-182618206.html - [2026-10-01] Evercore ISI read Williams and Jefferson as saying the Fed does not expect back-to-back hikes in October. It called the joint message "authoritative", since Warsh gives no guidance. Reuters said global brokerages largely expect only a December hike. https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2026-10-01/fed-officials-wash-away-market-bets-october-rate-increase - [2026-10-09] Admiral Markets counts only 1 of 14 surveyed brokerages (BofA) expecting an October hike. It calls the base case a "hawkish hold". https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/fed-rate-decision-october-2026 - [2026-10-08] Even the hawk Musalem would not prejudge October. He said more tightening is needed "in the next six to nine months", a window that fits a December move. https://investing.com/news/economy-news/feds-musalem-says-lowering-inflation-will-require-more-rate-hikes-4939596 - [2026-10-07] Fed-speaker dissent is mixed. Bowman said there is no urgent need for more hikes this year, and ING says a December hike is the base case. ING says an October hold stays comfortable if core CPI prints at 0.2% m/m, which is consensus. https://www.fxstreet.com/news/fed-minutes-set-to-provide-some-insight-into-the-timing-of-next-rate-hikes-202610071400 - [2026-10-12] The CPI route to a hold looks intact. Headline is expected at +0.6% m/m, driven by energy (about +5.5%). Core is expected at +0.2%, which is the number that matters. MUFG says another core upside surprise would be needed to revive an October hike. https://investinglive.com/news/mufg-us-cpi-seen-at-3-6-core-must-surprise-to-revive-an-october-fed-hike/ - [2026-10-12] The Cleveland Fed nowcast has core at 0.20% m/m and 2.39% y/y. That is in line with consensus, so core CPI is not set up to force the Fed's hand. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/us-cpi-september-2026-scenarios-fed-october - [2026-10-12] One commentator says a hold needs headline CPI of 3.8% or higher plus a clear Warsh signal on Oct 15 to be put in doubt. The inflation market gives 3.8% or more about a 9% chance. The same source calls roughly 90% a fair price for the hold. This is opinion. https://rg.org/news/prediction-markets/polymarket-daily-fed-october-decision-cpi-bitcoin-90000-october-12-2026 - [2026-10-12] Polymarket's December hike price is 76%, against 17% or less for October. That ordering shows the market treats December as the hike date. Polymarket's October hold was 86% and CME's was 81.7%. https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/fed-rate-polymarket-odds-signal-october-hold-december-hike-risk-for-bitcoin - [2026-10-07] CNBC says recent inflation data and comments from leading officials indicate another increase is unlikely for October. Core PCE for August was 3.0%, with no worsening. The minutes also stress taking each meeting "with an open mind", so they are not a pre-commitment to hike. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/07/fed-officials-see-another-hike-coming-but-no-sign-as-to-when-minutes-show.html - [2026-10-07] US News notes the October meeting falls close to the November midterms. It says the Fed "may decide not to act" so close to an election, which leaves December as the likelier option. This is commentary, not Fed policy. https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2026-10-07/fed-telegraphs-another-interest-rate-hike-this-year - [2026-09-16] Wells Fargo says the September move is best viewed as an inflation-risk-management increase. It adds that it is "not necessarily the start of an automatic series of hikes". https://www.wellsfargoadvisors.com/research-analysis/reports/fed-rate.htm **Most likely path to YES:** September CPI on Oct 14 prints core at 0.2% m/m or lower, with the headline energy-driven jump already expected. Warsh stays non-committal on Oct 15. The Fed enters blackout with Williams and Jefferson's "more data" message unchanged and keeps rates flat on Oct 28. It then signals a December hike, which is what most dots and the market expect. BOTTOM LINE: The Fed's leadership has signalled a hold, brokerages almost uniformly expect one, and markets price a hike for December rather than October. Only a core CPI surprise of 0.3% or more plus hawkish Warsh remarks looks able to overturn that. NOT FOUND: The actual Oct 14 CPI print, any official Fed statement that rules out an October hike, and any sign the meeting will be cancelled. The CNBC minutes page was not fetched in full, so its bullet rests on the search snippet. The Reuters Oct 2 page was fetched but truncated.

YES means: the FOMC leaves the target range unchanged at 3.75–4.00% on Oct 28, 2026 (a "0 bp hike"), or the meeting is cancelled. NO means a hike (or a cut) is announced. I argue only the NO side below. It rests on a hawkish surprise, because the status quo and the officials' signalling all point toward a hold. - [2026-10-12] MUFG says only a core CPI upside surprise would revive an October hike. A repeat of August's 0.3% m/m core would "revive bets on a back-to-back move" and lift the front end. Consensus is 0.2%, so one rounding-level miss is the path to NO. MUFG also says strong Oct 15 retail sales would show the economy can absorb tighter policy. https://investinglive.com/news/mufg-us-cpi-seen-at-3-6-core-must-surprise-to-revive-an-october-fed-hike/ - [2026-10-02] JPMorgan's Feroli said "it would now take a very strong CPI to make the October meeting live". He still expects a December hike. Fifth Third's Adams said the September CPI and PPI reports, pump prices and geopolitics could sway the decision more than the jobs report. Reuters said the CPI "could yet shift that calculus." https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/economics/2026/10/02/fed-may-skip-october-but-pull-us-rate-hike-trigger-in-december/ - [2026-10-02] The jobs data was not a clear labor-market break. The Reuters piece says the unemployment rise to 4.2% came from more workforce entrants, and low jobless claims show no broad layoffs. Chicago Fed's Goolsbee said "plenty of room for anything to be on the table" on raise versus pause. His main worry was the inflation side. That keeps the weak-payrolls argument for a hold contestable. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/economics/2026/10/02/fed-may-skip-october-but-pull-us-rate-hike-trigger-in-december/ - [2026-10-08] Waller said hikes "need not" come at consecutive meetings. That is permission, not a commitment. His words were "some flexibility", and he added that hikes "should occur within a reasonable timeframe." St. Louis Fed's Musalem called for more firming the same day. https://finance.biggo.com/news/d01e4e7f-f6a0-4a91-a7b6-77ab014b1dde - [2026-10-12] A Reuters-based analysis notes that Williams and Jefferson had to be "unusually clear" because market pricing was running away from the Fed. Tim Duy attributed this to Warsh's lack of forward guidance. The October signal came from the Williams/Jefferson "troika" speeches, not from a committee statement or from Warsh. Warsh has not spoken since the September FOMC. He speaks Oct 15 (early Friday Bangkok time) and can reset expectations either way. https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2026-10-01/fed-officials-wash-away-market-bets-october-rate-increase - [2026-10-07] The CNBC minutes article says the Fed doesn't need to rush. It also says short-term inflation expectations have risen considerably. NY Fed consumer inflation fears were the highest since May 2023, and Treasury yields hit levels not seen since 2002. These are inputs a hawkish chair focused on "predominant" price stability could use to justify moving early. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/07/fed-officials-see-another-hike-coming-but-no-sign-as-to-when-minutes-show.html - [2026-09-16] After Warsh's press conference, CME FedWatch put an October hike at 49%. Odds were 40% on the morning of the decision. Odds later reached about 70% on Sept 28. Pricing was whipsawed by three speeches within days, so the reverse swing is plausible. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/fomc-meeting - [2026-09-17] Goldman's Haigh expects the Fed to "likely" skip October because of the midterms, and the Fed has no formal rule against moving. Political-calendar reasoning is an analyst inference. The PBS source describes it as analysts' doubt, not Fed policy. A committee that voted 12-0 to hike and has 16 of 18 projecting another hike has no institutional bar to moving on Oct 28. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/watch-live-warsh-holds-briefing-after-fed-meeting-as-interest-rates-expected-to-rise - [2026-10-12] The September CPI headline is expected at about +0.6% m/m and 3.6–3.7% y/y, a four-month high. Energy is expected to rise about 5.5%. Oil near $90–100 and the Hormuz explosions headline add upside risk to inflation. The Cleveland Fed nowcast is core +0.20% m/m and 2.39% y/y; the nowcast is 3.6% headline. Core 2.4–2.5% is only about 0.5 point above target; the hawkish case rests on headline energy pass-through and expectations. https://investinglive.com/stocks/us-cpi-preview-energy-set-to-lift-inflation-to-3-7-core-seen-steady-at-2-4/ - [2026-10-12] Futures stay at roughly 20–26% for an October hike. BofA is the lone brokerage of 14 surveyed expecting an October hike. A single dissenting house is a thin NO case. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/fed-rate-decision-october-2026 BOTTOM LINE: NO needs a hawkish surprise, most likely a core CPI of 0.3% or more on Oct 14, or hawkish Warsh remarks on Oct 15. Without one, officials' own October signalling, the weak payrolls, and the midterm optics all favour a hold. The 10-day gap between the Oct 14 CPI and the Oct 28 decision leaves room for the signalling to reverse. NOT FOUND: The Oct 14 CPI result, which was not yet out. Any Fed official explicitly calling for an October hike, other than the general hawkish talk from Musalem and Hammack. Any cancellation signal. The Fed's own page for the October decision. The contract's live price, which I did not look for.