Will X become law in any U.S. state except New York before Jan 1, 2027? — Yes

- [2026-10-08] A tracker checked against official legislature records lists 0 statewide data center moratoriums enacted by a legislature. The only moratorium bill to pass a legislature was Maine LD 307, which the governor vetoed on Apr 24, 2026, and the veto was sustained on Apr 29. Other bills (OK, MD, GA, MN, SD, VT) died, VA HB 1515 was continued to 2027, and a federal bill is in committee. https://www.ailawsbystate.com/blog/data-center-moratorium-by-state-2026 - [2026-10-08] The same tracker says the pauses actually in force are local ones, plus executive actions in New York and Texas. The Texas action is described by the Houston Public Media piece below as a moratorium on new data centers connecting to the grid, pending a state-led audit. I did not find the Texas order text or confirm whether it meets this contract's "executive order" criteria (signature, publication, legal effect). https://www.ailawsbystate.com/blog/data-center-moratorium-by-state-2026 - [2026-08-04] Texas Gov. Abbott declared a moratorium on new data centers pending an audit. Critics said it doesn't go far enough, and one advocacy group said the governor's powers are limited without a special session. The directive tells PUCT and ERCOT to collect data on data centers' water and energy use and incentives. Abbott's office hadn't said whether it would call a special session. The Texas legislature's next regular session is in 2027. This is the main ambiguous candidate for a "ban or pause" outside New York, and its date predates the market opening on Jul 14. Whether it counts is unclear, since the rules say "enacted before Jan 1, 2027" and the order was issued earlier. https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/technology/2026/08/04/558663/data-centers-texas-governor-greg-abbott-moratorium-special-legislative-session/ - [2026-07-14] NY Gov. Hochul signed Executive Order 62, a one-year pause on state environmental permits for data centers of 50 MW or more. She had not acted on the legislature's stronger 20 MW bill (S10642/A11560), passed Jun 4. New York is excluded from this question. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/14/new-york-ai-data-center-ban.html - [2026-07-14] CNBC reported that 14 state legislatures had introduced bills restricting new data center construction and none had been signed into law. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/14/new-york-ai-data-center-ban.html - [2026-09-21] California Gov. Newsom signed a seven-bill data center package covering reporting, rates and environmental review. The package is regulatory, not a moratorium. https://www.datacenterbans.com/state/california - [2026-08-17] North Dakota's Legislative Management rejected an overall data center moratorium for its September special session. It considered only a temporary ban on non-disclosure agreements. https://northdakotamonitor.com/2026/08/17/no-pause-on-data-centers-but-north-dakota-special-session-to-debate-non-disclosure-deals/ - [2026-08-04] Oregon Democrats plan to propose a three-year moratorium in the 2027 session starting in January. That is after the deadline. Gov. Kotek separately paused data center sales on state land, with demonstrators wanting more (Sep 8). https://oregoncapitalchronicle.com/2026/08/04/democratic-lawmakers-propose-three-year-moratorium-on-new-large-data-centers-in-oregon/ - [2026-06-22] Arizona paused its data center tax exemption from Jul 1, 2026 to Jun 30, 2029. Illinois and Ohio governors paused incentives. These are tax-incentive pauses, not construction or permitting bans. https://www.multistate.us/insider/2026/6/22/state-data-center-policy-shifts-as-governors-impose-new-restrictions - [2026-10-05] Local moratoria are proliferating, for example Beaufort County SC, Alachua FL (first reading), and several California cities. Local actions are not statewide. A tracker snippet (Oct 7) lists Hawaii statewide bills as in committee, with the governor opposed. https://programs.com/resources/data-center-moratoriums-tracker/ - [2026-05-07] Florida's SB 484 was signed. It is a ratepayer and water framework that preserves local authority, not a moratorium. https://www.datacenterbans.com/state/florida - Most legislatures are adjourned for the year or in recess before the 2027 sessions. I found no sign of any pending statewide moratorium bill awaiting a governor's signature, apart from NY. BOTTOM LINE: As of Oct 12, 2026, no state besides New York has legislatively enacted a statewide data center moratorium. The only plausible path to Yes is a new gubernatorial executive order or a special session before Jan 1, or a resolver counting Texas's earlier Abbott directive, which looks like an audit-linked grid-connection pause. I found no scheduled event that would produce one. NOT FOUND: The text and legal form of Abbott's Texas order. Any pending special session on a data center moratorium. Any bill awaiting a governor's signature. Any new statewide executive moratorium in the last 7–14 days. The Kalshi rules page itself.

- [2026-10-08] No state legislature has enacted a statewide data center moratorium. A tracker checked against official records lists 0 enacted by a legislature and 1 passed then vetoed (Maine LD 307, vetoed 2026-04-24, veto sustained 04-29). Moratorium bills in OK, MD, GA, MN, SD, VT and VA died or were continued to 2027. https://www.ailawsbystate.com/blog/data-center-moratorium-by-state-2026 - [2026-10-08] The same tracker says the pauses actually in force are local ones plus executive actions in New York and Texas. It counted 104 local and state moratorium actions across 26 states as of 2026-10-01. https://www.ailawsbystate.com/blog/data-center-moratorium-by-state-2026 - [2026-09-21] Texas: Gov. Abbott directed the state environmental regulator (TCEQ) to halt data center permits until ERCOT audits its interconnection waitlist. This expanded an August 2026 moratorium on new data center grid approvals. It was a governor's directive. I did not confirm whether it is a formally signed and published executive order, which the market rules require. TCEQ's compliance update is due 2026-10-19. This is the main candidate for a YES under the rules, which count executive orders. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/21/texas-governor-abbott-ai-data-center-permits.html - [2026-07-14] New York EO 62 was billed as the first statewide moratorium, a one-year pause on environmental permits for facilities of 50 MW or more. It is excluded from this question. NY's more stringent bill (20 MW) passed both houses on 2026-06-04 and was still unsigned as of July. https://www.utilitydive.com/news/behind-the-new-york-data-center-pause-is-legislation-that-could-impact-exis/826369/ - [2026-09-29] A secondary aggregator (page returned 403 on fetch, so unverified) says governors in Virginia, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, Kentucky, Ohio, Oregon, Utah, Nebraska, Nevada, Louisiana and Texas have issued executive orders or directives "restricting or regulating" data centers. Many of these are conditional or regulatory rather than moratoria. Treat it with caution. https://www.electricchoice.com/datacenters/moratoriums/ - [2026-09-03] Heatmap rated New Hampshire "very high likelihood" of a moratorium. Gov. Ayotte (R) wants one in her 2027 budget, but NH legislative action comes in the first half of 2027, after the deadline. Heatmap also names Arizona and Ohio as candidates and says Pennsylvania's Shapiro has a "conditional moratorium" by executive action. https://heatmap.news/plus/the-fight/spotlight/next-data-center-moratorium-states - [2026-07-09] Arizona's budget froze data center sales-tax incentives for 3 years. Gov. Hobbs said "Nobody's talking about a moratorium on data centers themselves." It is a tax pause, not a construction or permitting moratorium, and probably does not qualify. https://azcapitoltimes.com/news/2026/07/09/data-centers-dominated-2026-session-lawmakers-answered-with-3-year-tax-incentive-pause/ - [2026-08-04] Texas critics are calling for a special session, but Abbott has pledged to act on data centers in the 2027 regular session. Most legislatures are out of session in Q4 2026, so legislative enactment before 2027-01-01 is structurally unlikely. https://www.houstonpublicmedia.org/articles/technology/2026/08/04/558663/data-centers-texas-governor-abbott-moratorium-special-legislative-session/ - [2026-05-07] Multistate: state-level moratorium bills were introduced in 11 states in 2026 but "face resistance". Local pauses are far more common. https://www.multistate.us/resources/state-data-center-policy-101 - [2026-10-11] Political backdrop: a recent NBC poll found 64% of Americans less likely to vote for a candidate who supports building local data centers. In NY, the Hochul moratorium is used in campaign ads. This raises the incentive for governors to act by executive order before or after the November elections. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/21/texas-governor-abbott-ai-data-center-permits.html BOTTOM LINE: The base rate for legislative enactment is zero from roughly 11 states' bills in 2026. The only YES path before 2027-01-01 is gubernatorial executive action, and Texas's August and September directives are the closest existing precedent. Whether they meet the "official signature, publication" test, whether a resolver would count them, and whether another governor issues a moratorium EO in Q4 are the key uncertainties. NOT FOUND: The text and formal status of Texas's August 2026 order (executive order vs. directive) and the exact date it took effect. Any prediction-market or expert estimates for other states. Confirmation of the electricchoice.com list of other governors' orders. Any NY bill signing, which is excluded anyway.

YES means: a statewide moratorium, pause or ban on new data center construction or permitting is enacted in a U.S. state other than New York before Jan 1, 2027. The path is most likely a governor's executive order, since no legislature is positioned to pass one. - [2026-09-21] The Texas permit freeze is the strongest existing candidate. Abbott directed TCEQ to issue no permits sought by data center projects. The freeze applies statewide, even to projects that skip the ERCOT interconnection queue or use behind-the-meter power. The governor's own release says no state agency shall move forward with regulatory approvals related to data center development until the audit information is acquired. This is broader than the August grid-only action. https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-directs-tceq-to-halt-data-center-permits - [2026-09-21] Dallas News says the order effectively halted all new data center construction until at least December. The Texas Lawbook says the ERCOT audit is expected to wrap up in mid-December. The pause therefore stays legally in force through most of Q4. If a resolver judges "enacted" by being in force and binding, Texas qualifies on the deadline. https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/article/greg-abbott-halts-data-center-permitting-texas-22440748.php - [2026-09-21] The Texas action post-dates the market opening on Jul 14. The Sept 21 TCEQ directive is a new, separate act that expanded the August action. It is not the same event as the earlier August one. A resolver could therefore treat the Sept 21 date as the enactment inside the window. https://www.hppr.org/hppr-news/2026-09-24/gov-greg-abbott-broadens-moratorium-on-data-center-approvals-to-include-environmental-permits - [2026-09-21] Media widely call the Texas action a "moratorium" or "statewide pause." The Texas Tribune, Texas Lawbook, CNBC and DLA Piper (Sept 25) do so, and DLA Piper says it extends the moratorium beyond grid interconnection to environmental permitting. The Kalshi wording ("moratorium, pause, or ban ... permitting") fits this literally. https://www.dlapiper.com/en-us/insights/publications/2026/09/governor-abbott-expands-data-center-permitting-pause - [2026-08-18] Pennsylvania Gov. Shapiro signed Executive Order 2026-05. One tracker lists it as an "Active pause / Executive pause." It conditions DEP review for data centers over 25 MW on GRID agreements and local approvals, and permits cannot be issued until all applications are reviewed. It is a conditional rather than outright pause, and it is a signed, numbered executive order. https://dcmap.us/insights/policy/ - [2026-09-08] Oregon's Kotek ordered every state agency to pause easements, leases, land-use permits and sales of state property for data centers. The pause runs through July 1, 2027 unless lifted earlier. Some outlets headline it a "statewide pause on new data center construction." It is limited to state land and is a weak candidate, but it is a numbered order with a fixed duration, and a lenient resolver might count it. https://www.applevalleynewsnow.com/news/oregon-governor-tina-kotek-orders-statewide-pause-on-new-data-center-construction/article_5be8a0de-0186-434d-a539-0f40d96cb99e.html - [2026-09-29] An aggregator reports that twelve governors signed data center executive orders or directives in 2026, with six signing in September alone. The pace is accelerating, which raises the odds that another governor issues a pause-type order before year-end. The same page names Virginia EO 22 and Massachusetts EO 658. I could not verify their content. https://www.electricchoice.com/datacenters/moratoriums/ - [2026-07-21] Nebraska Gov. Pillen's EO 26-17 ended ImagiNE tax incentives for new data centers and created a task force. He said it is not a construction ban. This is a further precedent for order-based action, but it is not a moratorium. https://dcmap.us/insights/policy/ - [2026-09-21] Political pressure on governors is rising. Abbott's opponent Hinojosa says the Texas pause goes away the day after the election, Nov. 4. Opposition pressure to keep or formalize the pause, or a Republican governor extending it, could produce a new formal act. Abbott has said only that he will work with the Legislature next session. https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/article/greg-abbott-halts-data-center-permitting-texas-22440748.php - [2026-10-19, upcoming] TCEQ's compliance report to the governor is due Oct 19. It must report on compliance with the directive. This is a near-term catalyst that could produce a more formal or extended Texas order. https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-directs-tceq-to-halt-data-center-permits - [2026-09-08] Oregon's Kotek lacks authority for a broad ban: Oregon currently cannot issue a statewide moratorium on private data center development. The state-land pause was one of the few tools available. That limits the Oregon path and shows why the Texas action is stronger. https://www.kptv.com/2026/09/08/oregon-governor-pauses-state-land-requests-data-centers/ BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is Texas. Abbott's Sept 21 TCEQ directive is a statewide, in-force halt on all data center permits, widely labeled a "moratorium," and its enactment date falls inside the window. It resolves YES if the resolver counts a signed gubernatorial directive as an executive order. Pennsylvania EO 2026-05 and Oregon's Sept 8 order are weaker fallbacks, and a new governor order before Jan 1 is a further possibility. NOT FOUND: The formal executive-order number or Texas Register publication for Abbott's directive. It is a letter and press release. Any pending special session or bill awaiting signature. Kalshi's own statement on whether Texas counts. The full text of Pennsylvania EO 2026-05 (the tracker page returned 403 on a full read, and I relied on the search snippet).

YES means: a statewide moratorium, pause or ban on new data center construction or permitting is enacted in any U.S. state other than New York before Jan 1, 2027. Enactment can be by legislation or by a signed, published executive order. - [2026-09-21] The Texas action is a letter from Abbott to the TCEQ director, and his press release calls it a "directive". The Aug 3 action was also a letter, to PUCT and ERCOT. Neither is described by any source I found as a numbered, published executive order. The NO case is that the rules require signature, publication in official records and legal effect, and NY EO 62 was a formal numbered order. The Texas letters are agency instructions, and Bracewell says the order applies to data center projects "in the middle of" permitting. https://www.bracewell.com/resources/governor-abbott-orders-tceq-to-pause-all-permit-issuance-for-data-center-projects/ - [2026-09-21 / 2026-08-03] Even if a resolver counts Texas, the enactment dates (Aug 3 and Sept 21) fall before the market opened on Jul 14? No: Aug 3 is after Jul 14, so timing is not a clean bar. It is also not a "new" enactment that is still pending. A strict reader could say it was already done before the window or is not "enacted" legislation or an order. The Texas pause is also open-ended, tied to audit completion (Bracewell expects mid-December), and has no fixed end date. https://www.troutman.com/insights/governor-abbott-directs-tceq-to-halt-all-data-center-permits-pending-ercot-twdb-audits/ - [2026-09-24] Newsweek, which draws on NCSL, still calls NY the first and only statewide moratorium among the states tracked. It describes Texas as "operating under Abbott's executive pause". That is a hedge: mainstream media do not uniformly label Texas a "moratorium", and NY is the only formal one. https://www.newsweek.com/data-centers-moratorium-states-map-12484752 - [2026-09-24] Maryland's Gov. Moore signed an executive order on Sep 23 setting up a review framework for projects of 25 MW or more. It is explicitly not a moratorium, and it stops short of the one he said he would sign if lawmakers sent it. The leading Democratic governor who was open to a moratorium chose a review process. Nevada's Lombardo order (mid-September) covers taxes, energy costs and water, not a pause. https://www.newsweek.com/data-centers-moratorium-states-map-12484752 - [2026-09-23] The electricchoice.com list of 12 governors' orders is padded. Its own descriptions show Ohio's as a sales-tax-exemption pause, Louisiana's as incentive conditions, and Nebraska's as ending tax incentives. Only NY and Texas are called moratoria. Most of the "12" are therefore not construction or permitting bans. https://www.electricchoice.com/datacenters/moratoriums/ - [2026-09-24] Moore's EO, Nevada's order and the tax pauses show governors favoring conditions and incentive pauses over permit bans. Newsweek's list of states with moratorium bills (DE, GA, MI, NJ, PA, SC, VT) shows they are still "at various stages". Most of those legislatures are not in session. The Virginia bill is a conditional halt that runs to 2028 and was continued, so nothing is ready for a governor's signature before Jan 1. https://www.newsweek.com/data-centers-moratorium-states-map-12484752 - [2026-09-21] Federal and political friction: Trump called Texas's pause "a mistake" in August. Abbott's opponent says the pause is an election tactic that "goes away" after Nov 4. If Abbott lets the audit lapse or narrows the order after the election, Texas will look even less like an enacted moratorium. Abbott's stated legislative plan is to eliminate incentives next session, not to legislate a ban. https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/article/greg-abbott-halts-data-center-permitting-texas-22440748.php - [2026-07-16] A formal EO template exists (NY EO 62, published on governor.ny.gov). No other state has produced a comparable published order with a stated permitting abeyance in the roughly three months since. That is the status-quo evidence: one formal statewide instance in about 14 weeks, and it was in NY, which is excluded. https://www.governor.ny.gov/executive-order/no-62-establishing-temporary-moratorium-data-centers-new-york-while-state-develops BOTTOM LINE: The NO case is strongest on the resolution technicalities. The only candidate, Texas, is a letter-form directive that is audit-conditional and already in place. No bill is awaiting signature, and legislatures are largely out of session until January 2027. Governors have mostly chosen frameworks and tax pauses over permit bans. A Yes would need either a resolver who counts the Texas letters or a new gubernatorial order in Q4. NOT FOUND: The Texas order's formal instrument type, because gov.texas.gov blocked a direct fetch (the press release text came via search results). The Kalshi rules page. Any scheduled special session on a moratorium. Any new statewide permit-pause order outside Texas and NY after Sept 24.