Will privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont in 2026 be above 1,900 units?

- [2026-09-24] The latest FRED/Census monthly series for Vermont (VTBPPRIV, NSA, all structure types) runs through Aug 2026. The 2026 monthly values are: Jan 197, Feb 77, Mar 109, Apr 134, May 125, Jun 179, Jul 138, Aug 146. Jan–Aug sums to 1,105 units (my arithmetic). https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/VTBPPRIV - [2026-10-12] To finish above 1,900, Sep–Dec 2026 would need at least 796 units, about 199 a month. Only 2 of the 8 months so far reached about 179 or more (Jan 197, Jun 179). The Jan–Aug average is about 138 a month. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/VTBPPRIV - [2026-09-24] Comparison with 2025, from the same series: Sep 2025 was an outlier at 666. Oct, Nov and Dec 2025 were 229, 123 and 108. The monthly values sum to 2,448 for 2025 and about 2,625 for 2024 (my arithmetic). Jan–Aug 2025 summed to 1,322, against 1,105 for Jan–Aug 2026, which is about 16% lower. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/VTBPPRIV - [2026-09-24] The 2025 Sep–Dec total was 1,126. A repeat of that would put 2026 at about 2,230. Lumpy large multifamily permits drive these spikes: Dec 2024 was 428 and Sep 2025 was 666. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/VTBPPRIV - [2026, undated; the page shows an Aug 6, 2026 post] VHFA says the 2025 official Census annual data show 2,294 buildings permitted statewide. It calls this a slight dip from the prior year, which had risen steadily since 2019. The 2,294 may differ from the 2,448 monthly sum, so the annual and monthly bases may differ. https://vhfa.org/news/blog/housing-data - [2026-05-19] Vermont DHCD says Census permit data is released once a year for the prior year. It also says the state's dashboard counts typically sit within 300–400 units of Census permit counts. https://legislature.vermont.gov/Documents/2026/Workgroups/House%20Environment/Reports%20and%20Resources/W~Department%20of%20Housing%20and%20Community%20Development~2026%20Housing%20Targets%20Report~5-21-2026.pdf - [2026-09-17] US national permits in Aug 2026 were at a 1,394,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate, 2.7% below July and 3.5% above Aug 2025. The national trend is stable to slightly up, with no sign of a collapse. https://pipexch.com/housing-starts-and-permitting-09-17-26/ - [2026-09-24] FRED lists the next national New Residential Construction release (Sep data) for Oct 20, 2026. State-level Sep data usually follows in the monthly state permit release, a few days to a few weeks after that. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PERMIT?cid=97 - Resolution source: the first finalized annual 2026 Census figure normally appears in spring 2027, which is before the 2027-05-03 close. I did not confirm the exact date. BOTTOM LINE: Through Aug 2026 Vermont has about 1,105 permitted units, below 2025's pace. Exceeding 1,900 needs roughly 800 units in Sep–Dec, which requires large multifamily spikes like those in Sep 2025 (666) or Dec 2024 (428). The annual figure may also differ from the monthly sum, because the 2025 annual was reported as 2,294 against a monthly sum of 2,448. NOT FOUND: the official Census annual 2026 release date, state-level Sep 2026 data (not yet published), and any Vermont-specific pipeline reports of large pending permit projects.

- [2026-09-24] FRED monthly series (Census, not seasonally adjusted, updated 2026-09-24), Jan–Aug 2026: 197, 77, 109, 134, 125, 179, 138, 146. My sum is 1,105 units through August. A Yes needs about 796 or more in Sep–Dec. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/VTBPPRIV.txt - [2026-09-24] The same series for Jan–Aug 2025 sums to about 1,322. 2026 year-to-date is therefore about 16% below 2025. The 2025 total was lifted by a one-month spike of 666 in Sep 2025. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/VTBPPRIV.txt - [2026-09-24] My sums of the FRED monthly values give these full-year totals: 2021 ≈ 2,092, 2022 ≈ 2,192, 2023 ≈ 2,246, 2024 ≈ 2,625, 2025 ≈ 2,448. Official annual figures differ somewhat from the monthly sums. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/VTBPPRIV.txt - [2026-09-24] Sep–Dec totals from the same series: 2021 = 744, 2022 = 551, 2023 = 712, 2024 = 863, 2025 = 1,126 (including the 666 spike). Only 2024 and 2025 reached about 796 or more. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/VTBPPRIV.txt - [2025-2026] Vermont has not been below 1,900 on an annual basis recently. Official annual totals: 2,302 in 2022 (https://outside.vermont.gov/agency/ACCD/ACCD_Web_Docs/Housing/Housing-Needs-Assessment/2025-2029/VT-HNA-2025.pdf), 2,456 in 2023 (https://outside.vermont.gov/agency/ACCD/ACCD_Web_Docs/Housing/Housing-Needs-Assessment/2025-2029/Housing-Targets-Appendix.pdf), and a report of about 2,654 in 2024 (https://vermontdailychronicle.com/nations-fastest-shrinking-state-vermont-loses-0-3-of-population-amid-aging-crisis-and-housing-stagnation/). Fewer than 1,500 homes were permitted per year in 2008–2012, and 2010–2020 averaged about 1,178 homes added per year. - [2026-07-22] VHFA on the 2025 Census annual release: 2,294 buildings permitted statewide, a slight dip from 2024. This is a building count, not a unit count. The post's subtitle ("The Cost of Not Reporting Data") points to non-reporting jurisdictions. https://vhfa.org/news/blog/housing-data - [2026-05-21] The state housing agency's dashboard (E911 address data) counts about 1,600 new units in 2025, against about 3,000 in 2024. It says its counts typically land within 300–400 units of Census permit counts. It is not an official permit measure. https://www.compassvermont.com/p/vermont-built-a-way-to-count-the - [2026-05-19] The Department of Housing and Community Development says Census building-permit data is released once a year and lags. https://legislature.vermont.gov/Documents/2026/Workgroups/House%20Environment/Reports%20and%20Resources/W~Department%20of%20Housing%20and%20Community%20Development~2026%20Housing%20Targets%20Report~5-21-2026.pdf - [2026-09-30] Seven Days reports that permits dipped in 2025 after a few years of modest growth. https://www.sevendaysvt.com/home-design/realestate/vermonts-housing-market-has-tilted-back-toward-buyers-but-only-a-certain-kind/ - [2026-08] National context: US permits for July 2026 were 1.443M seasonally adjusted annual rate, up 5.9% year on year. The Northeast was up 20.8% year on year. https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/data/building-permits - Timing: the first annual 2026 Census figure should come in mid-2027 (the 2025 annual release was reported in July 2026). That is after the market's 2027-05-03 close. The final Census state-level annual numbers are the first finalized annual figures per the rules. Monthly sums may stand in for them, but the annual release adds imputation and non-reporter adjustments. Check whether the market can settle on a Census annual-data release before 2027-05-03. https://vhfa.org/news/blog/housing-data BOTTOM LINE: Vermont annual permits have been above 1,900 every year since 2021 (about 2,100–2,650 by monthly sums), so the outside view favours Yes. 2026 year-to-date is running about 16% below 2025, and I project roughly 1,750–1,950 on the monthly basis. That puts the result near the threshold, with the Sep–Dec total and the annual-release adjustments deciding it. NOT FOUND: Official 2026 annual or year-to-date state totals from the Census Bureau itself. Exact official annual unit totals for 2025 and 2021. Any published forecast or other-venue market for Vermont 2026 permits.

YES means: the first finalized Census annual 2026 figure for Vermont's privately owned housing units authorized by building permits, all structure types, is strictly above 1,900. - [2026-10-12] Most likely path to YES: the annual Census file adds imputed units for non-reporting towns, and a large Sep–Dec multifamily permit lifts the monthly total. FRED's Jan–Aug sum is 1,105 (colleagues' arithmetic). Each Census annual figure below is DHCD's table; each monthly sum is FRED's. The annual figure was higher than the FRED monthly sum by about 211 in 2022 (2,403 vs 2,192) and about 210 in 2023 (2,456 vs 2,246). It was higher by about 29 in 2024 (2,654 vs 2,625). In 2025 it was lower by about 154 (2,294 vs 2,448). If 2026 gets a gap near +200, the monthly sum needs only about 1,700. That means about 600 units in Sep–Dec, against the 796 the monthly-basis threshold implies. https://legislature.vermont.gov/Documents/2026/Workgroups/House%20Environment/Reports%20and%20Resources/W~Department%20of%20Housing%20and%20Community%20Development~2026%20Housing%20Targets%20Report~5-21-2026.pdf - [2026-10-12] On my reading of the FRED series, Sep–Dec totals were 744 (2021), 551 (2022), 712 (2023), 863 (2024) and 1,126 (2025). That is the five-year record from my own sum of the monthly values. Three of the five years reached 600 or more, and two reached 796 or more. Sep–Dec also contains the biggest single-month spikes: Dec 2024 was 428 and Sep 2025 was 666. A single 5+ unit project can move the total by several hundred units. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/VTBPPRIV.txt - [2026-10-12] The Census release schedule states that annual data come out on the first workday of May for the prior year. For 2026 data that is Monday 3 May 2027, the same day trading closes. Next monthly releases: Sep data on 20 Oct, Oct data on 18 Nov, Nov data on 17 Dec, Dec data on 20 Jan 2027. The schedule still shows the first-workday rule, but the 2025 data actually came out on 14 May 2026, so a slip past the close is possible. https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/schedule.html - [2026-05-14] Census reports that final 2025 annual estimates came out on 14 May 2026, benchmarked to the final totals. The annual file covers all permit-issuing places and imputes for non-reporters, so it is not just the sum of the monthly values. https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/index.html - [2026-07-22] VHFA says about 50 Vermont municipalities did not submit permit reports last year, and their estimates rely wholly on imputation. If imputation baselines stay high for those towns, the annual file can come in above the reported monthly sum, as in 2022–2023. https://www.healthcareindustrytoday.com/article/928818527-2025-census-building-permit-data-released-the-cost-of-not-reporting-data - [2026-10-12] Four of the first eight 2026 months were low, but Jan was 197 and Jun was 179. The 2026 monthly figures from Apr to Aug are 125–179. Jul and Aug (138, 146) look steady, not collapsing. Seasonally, Oct usually runs above Aug in the series: Oct 2025 was 229, Oct 2023 was 329 and Oct 2021 was 198. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/VTBPPRIV.txt - [2026-06-18] Policy support for multifamily. Act 181's Tier 1A/1B interim Act 250 housing exemptions took effect 1 Jan 2026. S.325/Act 152 extended the interim exemptions through early 2028. S.328, signed 18 Jun 2026, adds zoning support for duplexes and small multi-unit housing. Developers face no near-term cliff, and some may start projects before the Tier 2 rules begin on 31 Dec 2026. https://www.srhlaw.com/vermont-2026-legislative-wrap-up/ and https://act250.vermont.gov/src/interim-act-250-housing-exemptions - [2026-05-21] Burlington metro permits for May 2026 were 45 units, and the trailing 12 months were 1,212. That is roughly half of Vermont's monthly permit total, so the trailing base in Chittenden County remains large. Pumsdata, which cites the Census Building Permits Survey, puts the latest month at -4.3% year on year, so the metro is flat, not collapsing. https://pumsdata.com/data/permits/metro/burlington-south-burlington-vt - [2026-05-21] DHCD's Nov 2025 testimony, citing Census data, shows Vermont annual permits at 2,000–3,100 over 2020–2024. It had a growth goal of about 3% a year and said average growth over the last 10 years was about 3%. The dashboard (E911) 2025 count of 1,598 versus Census 2,294 shows the Census series runs well above other measures. https://ljfo.vermont.gov/assets/Meetings/Joint-Fiscal-Committee/2025-11-13/DHCD_JFC-Testimony_11-13-2025.pdf BOTTOM LINE: The YES case is an outside view plus annual-file uplift. Vermont's Census annual totals have been 2,294–2,654 from 2022 to 2025, and in three of four years the annual figure beat the monthly sum. YES needs the annual file to add about 200 over the monthly sum, plus ordinary Sep–Dec activity of about 600 (three of the last five years did that), or one large multifamily permit. NOT FOUND: Vermont-specific pending large multifamily projects scheduled for Q4 2026 permits. The Sep 2026 state figure (due after 20 Oct). A confirmed 2027 annual release date. Official Census 2026 year-to-date state totals, other than the FRED monthly series.

YES means: Census's first finalized annual 2026 figure for Vermont privately owned housing units authorized by building permits (all structure types) is strictly above 1,900. - [2026-09-24] The FRED/Census series (VTBPPRIV) runs through Aug 2026 and shows a Jan–Aug 2026 total of 1,105 units. Only 2 of 8 months reached 179 or more. Since 1988, a Sep–Dec total of 796 or more has been rare. Beyond the 2024 and 2025 spikes, the 2021–2023 Sep–Dec totals ran 551–744, so the status-quo run rate points to about 1,650–1,850. I read the 1988–2026 monthly values in full. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/VTBPPRIV.txt - [2026-09-24] Month by month, Sep–Dec 2025 was 666, 229, 123 and 108. The 666 in Sep 2025 sits far above any other month since 2010 except Dec 2024 (428). A one-off that size would have to repeat. Without one, Sep–Dec at the 2026 average of about 138 a month gives about 550, and a 2026 total near 1,650. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/VTBPPRIV.txt - [2026-09-24] Single-unit permits are weak. The April snapshot of the 1-unit series shows Jan–Apr 2026 at 92, 70, 77 and 112, against Dec 2025 at 57. Single-family is the steady base of the total, so no recovery there offsets the multifamily lumpiness. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VTBP1FH - [2026-05-14] Census published the final 2025 annual estimates on May 14, 2026, not the "first working day in May" its methodology page promises. The 2027 market closes May 3, 2027, which is the first working day of May 2027. A slip like 2026's means no finalized 2026 figure exists by the close. The rules state no other deadline. https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/index.html - [2026-10-12] Census's methodology says final annual estimates come on "the 1st working day in May". They are benchmarked to the completed annual survey, and no annual data are revised afterward. The first finalized figure is therefore the benchmarked, imputed one, not the monthly sum. https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/about.html - [2026-07-22] VHFA says roughly 50 Vermont municipalities did not report their permits last year, so their figures are imputed. Imputation can move the annual total away from the monthly sum, and the 2025 annual was reported as 2,294, below the 2,448 monthly sum, so the benchmark may cut totals. A similar cut applied to a 2026 monthly sum near 1,800 would leave it below 1,900. This is my inference from two numbers on different bases (buildings versus units), not a confirmed pattern. https://www.healthcareindustrytoday.com/article/928818527-2025-census-building-permit-data-released-the-cost-of-not-reporting-data - [2025-05-01] Census changed its imputation method with the January 2025 release, from regional factors to a mix of division and large individual states. That adds some uncertainty to how Vermont's imputed towns are scaled, in either direction. https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/announcements.html - [2026-01-01] Act 181's Tier 1A/1B exemptions took effect Jan 1, 2026, and Tiers 2 and 3 take effect Dec 31, 2026. The 2026 Jan–Aug numbers show no visible permit boost from them so far. Some interim Act 250 exemptions end Jan 1, 2027. A deadline-driven rush might fall in Q4 but is not yet visible in the data. https://act250.vermont.gov/src/interim-act-250-housing-exemptions - [2026-01-07] Let's Build Homes told legislators that 2025 production was "decent but below goals". It also said many towns are opting out of Tier 1A/1B and that more than half of Vermont communities get no housing relief from the tier mapping. That limits upside from the reform. https://legislature.vermont.gov/Documents/2026/Workgroups/House%20General/Housing/Organizational%20Updates%20and%20Overviews/W~Miro%20Weinberger~Let's%20Build%20Homes%20Testimony~1-7-2026.pdf - [2026-03-01] One commentary source puts Vermont at "roughly 1,800 permits per year", which is below the threshold. It is a low-quality source, but it shows how close 1,900 sits to the typical figure. https://askdoss.com/vermont-act-250-land-use-law-explained-what-homeowners-need-to-know-in-2026/ BOTTOM LINE: For a Yes, Sep–Dec 2026 must add about 800 units, roughly 5.8 times the 2026 monthly average, which in practice needs a one-off large multifamily batch like Sep 2025's 666. Even then, the benchmarked annual figure could land below the monthly sum, and a late Census release could leave no finalized 2026 figure by the May 3, 2027 close. NOT FOUND: Vermont Sep 2026 state-level permit data, which was not yet published. Named large Vermont multifamily projects expected to be permitted in Q4 2026. The official Census 2025 annual unit total for Vermont. The Census release date for the 2026 annual data. Any explicit Kalshi rule on what happens if Census releases late.