Will the President try to fire the Jerome Powell as either Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027? — Before 2027

- [2026-04-15] Trump told Fox Business that he would "have to fire" Powell if Powell stayed on the Board after his chair term ended. This was a conditional threat, not a firing; no termination document or letter has been reported. https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/15/economy/powell-trump-fire-fed-chair - [2026-04-24] DOJ (US Attorney Pirro) dropped the criminal probe of Powell and referred the renovation matter to the Fed inspector general. Pirro said it could be reopened. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_investigation_into_Jerome_Powell - [2026-04-29] Powell said he would stay on the Board "for a period of time to be determined", until the matter was "well and truly over". https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/jerome-powell-remain-fed-board-180057598.html - [2026-05-13 to 05-22] The Senate confirmed Warsh 54-45. Warsh took office as chair on May 22 and was confirmed to the seat Miran held. Powell's chair term ended May 15. https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/13/economy/kevin-warsh-confirmation-trump-fed-chair and https://www.brookings.edu/articles/who-has-to-leave-the-federal-reserve-next-2/ - [2026-05 onward] Powell is now a governor, with a term to January 2028. He still votes on the FOMC. Bessent and Trump criticised his decision to stay. https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5879153-powell-warsh-fed-transition/ - [2026-09-16] The FOMC unanimously raised rates 25bp to 3.75–4%. The next FOMC meeting is Oct 27–28. https://crypto.news/trump-adviser-calls-for-powell-exit-could-bitcoin-benefit/ - [2026-09-30] The Fed IG report found cost overruns and management failures. It found no criminal violation and no administrative misconduct. Trump posted that Powell "should be forced to resign" and, if he refuses, should be sued by the US government. Trump said he directed AG Blanche to review the report and decide next steps. A resignation demand and a call for a suit are not a firing under the rules. Whether a suit would count as "formal legal proceedings for removal" depends on how it is framed. https://qz.com/trump-powell-resign-fed-board-renovation-100126 - [2026-10-01] CNBC reported that legal experts doubt the IG report would support "for cause" removal. The same piece discussed possible moves against Cook and Barr. A Supreme Court ruling let Cook stay. I could not fetch the page and relied on the search snippet. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/01/trump-fed-powell-lisa-cook-michael-barr-removal.html - [2026-10-03] DOJ said it would not reopen a criminal investigation based on the IG findings. Blanche said an independent audit could still lead to one. The Fed is bringing in an outside auditor. https://crypto.news/trump-adviser-calls-for-powell-exit-could-bitcoin-benefit/ - [2026-10-04] NEC Director Hassett said on Fox that Powell should "move on". That is a request to leave, not a firing. https://crypto.news/trump-adviser-calls-for-powell-exit-could-bitcoin-benefit/ - [2026-10-01 to 10-12] I found no reports of a firing letter, an executive order, a statement that he has fired Powell, or formal removal proceedings against Powell. The NY Sun reported Trump wants DOJ to look into the matter. https://www.nysun.com/article/trump-demands-investigation-into-jerome-powell-former-chairmans-removal-from-fed-board-after-inspector-general-finds-no-wrongdoing-during-renovations - Background: Trump waved a draft firing letter before House Republicans in July 2025, but it was never sent. He has attempted to remove Governor Cook (the Supreme Court let her stay). https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-indicates-may-fire-fed-161633224.html - Upcoming: the FOMC meets Oct 27–28. The outside audit of the renovation is ongoing. The Fed's renovation is expected to finish in 2027. https://crypto.news/trump-adviser-calls-for-powell-exit-could-bitcoin-benefit/ BOTTOM LINE: As of Oct 12, Trump has repeatedly threatened (April, conditionally) and demanded resignation (Sept 30), but has not taken a qualifying step to fire Powell. Pressure is renewed after the IG report, but DOJ declined to reopen a criminal probe, and Trump's stated path is "resign or be sued" rather than firing. A suit or a direct "I'm firing him" statement would be the likeliest qualifying triggers. NOT FOUND: Any firing letter, order or removal filing against Powell. Any White House statement after Oct 5 on next steps (Blanche's review outcome). The Bloomberg originals (not fetched). The CNBC Oct 1 page could not be opened.

- [2026-10-09] Trump created a three-person "committee of inquiry" (Hassett, Sonderling, Lucas) on whether he has cause to fire Governor Lisa Cook. The Cook hearing is set for Nov 5, with follow-up due Nov 10. The committee only recommends, and there is no deadline for the president's decision. The same CNBC article says the DOJ's criminal investigation of Powell ended about two weeks earlier, with no charges and no further pursuit. It says the White House criticized Barr but stopped short of calling for his resignation. It reports no similar process for Powell. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/09/trump-lisa-cook-fed-firing-committee-explained.html - [2026-10-09] CNN confirms the Cook process. Analysts say it is built to cure the procedural defects the Supreme Court identified. https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/09/economy/white-house-investigation-fed-lisa-cook - [2026-06-29] Trump v. Cook, decided 5-4: Fed governors have for-cause removal protection, which requires notice and an opportunity to respond. Cook's removal was held "erroneous and void" for lack of process. The decision does not bar a future for-cause removal. https://www.faegredrinker.com/en/insights/publications/2026/6/supreme-court-decides-trump-v-cook - [2026-05-22] Warsh replaced Powell as chair. Powell's chair term ended May 15, and he stayed on as governor, with that term running to Jan 2028. Powell has been the first ex-chair to remain on the Board since 1948 (CBC). https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48233 - [2026-04-29] Powell said he would stay on the Board until the DOJ probe is "fully resolved with transparency and finality". https://www.foxnews.com/politics/powell-could-remain-fed-despite-looming-end-chair-term - [2026-04-15] Trump told Fox Business that if Powell stayed on, "Then I'll have to fire him". It was conditional, so it is arguably not a decision to fire under the rules. https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/15/economy/powell-trump-fire-fed-chair - [2026-10-05 approx.] Reports (about 7 days old) say Hassett and other Trump advisers are urging Powell to leave the Board. Hassett's call is a request to leave, which the rules exclude. https://crypto.news/trump-adviser-calls-for-powell-exit-could-bitcoin-benefit - [2025-07-17] Base-rate precedent: Trump held a draft firing letter, polled GOP lawmakers, then said "highly unlikely" and never sent it. In 2025 he also said "I have no intention of firing him" and "most likely" not. https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/trump-likely-will-fire-fed-chair-powell-soon-white-house-official-says-rcna219117 - [2025-08-25] Trump's only formal Fed firing attempt in about 20 months of repeated Powell threats (2018, 2020, 2025, Apr 2026) was against Cook. He has never formally acted against Powell. Cook's case is the sole reference class for a qualifying act, and it required a pretext of "cause". https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/LSB11449.html - [2025-06] Earlier markets: Polymarket put Trump removing Powell at about 10%, down from 20% in April 2025, and Kalshi put Powell out in 2025 at 13%. Both resolved No; the sources I found mention no 2026 odds for Powell. https://benzinga.com/z/45798570 - [2026-07-06] Brookings (Tarullo): the Cook ruling creates a Fed exception to broad presidential removal power and makes for-cause removal harder. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/fed-independence-after-trump-v-cook/ BOTTOM LINE: Across about 20 months, Trump's many threats against Powell have never become a formal firing step. The one actual Fed firing attempt, against Cook, needed a cause pretext. Powell's main pretext, the DOJ probe, ended without charges in late September 2026, and the Cook ruling raises the procedural bar. The new Cook process shows the administration is willing to try removing a governor, but I found no sign of a Powell-specific process. NOT FOUND: Current 2026 prediction-market odds on Powell specifically (deliberately not searched for), polls, and any White House document or statement from Oct 2026 saying Trump will fire Powell. I could not fetch the financial-world.org article on Hassett's call for Powell to leave.

YES means: Before Jan 1, 2027, Trump takes a qualifying step to fire Jerome Powell from the Fed Board. Qualifying steps are a signed removal order, a letter to Powell, a public statement that he has fired or decided to fire him, a directive to an official to terminate him, or formal removal proceedings. - [2026-10-09] The Cook "committee of inquiry" is a template that could be reused against Powell. Trump created it by presidential memo. Cook gets notice, a White House hearing on Nov 5, and follow-up until Nov 10. The committee only recommends, and Trump decides with no deadline. Trump had already sent Cook a notice in August 2026 that he was considering a new attempt. The same steps (notice, a response window, then a decision) could be applied to Powell. The administration has built this machinery within the last week. Whether a Powell notice or committee counts under the rules is ambiguous. A notice of "considering" removal is not a firing. A memo creating a removal proceeding could be read as "initiates formal legal proceedings for removal". https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/09/trump-lisa-cook-fed-firing-committee-explained.html - [2026-10-01] CNBC reported that Trump "appears to be weighing his options" on removing up to three governors, Powell included. Its Powell example was not hypothetical: Trump said Powell "should not be sitting on the Federal Reserve Board". The same day, the US Attorney's office for DC said it was also reviewing the IG report. Both DOJ reviews were still open as of Oct 1. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/01/trump-fed-powell-lisa-cook-michael-barr-removal.html - [2026-10-01] CNBC says some Fed insiders believe Trump has already shown he will act on thin evidence. The Cook firing in 2025 rested on unproven mortgage allegations. A former Fed general counsel says the IG report probably would not support "for cause" removal in court. The Cook precedent shows the administration does not wait for a legally strong case before acting. Trump v. Cook also lets a targeted governor stay in office during litigation, which lowers the practical cost of an attempt. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/01/trump-fed-powell-lisa-cook-michael-barr-removal.html - [2026-10-01] The Oct 28 FOMC decision falls days before the Nov 3 midterms. The administration also faces a deadline in the Cook case soon after the election. Any Powell step is likely to be timed with the Cook track. A post-election window, Nov to Dec, leaves about 8 weeks before the market closes. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/01/trump-fed-powell-lisa-cook-michael-barr-removal.html - [2026-09-30] Trump's post set an explicit conditional: if Powell does not resign, the US government "should be sued". The Sept 30 post, the Fox report and a Forbes headline show that his language on Powell moves between "resign", "sue" and "fire". Forbes carried a headline that Trump "Says He'll Fire Jerome Powell If He Doesn't Leave". That headline refers to the April 15 remark, but it shows how easily a literal reading of a fresh Trump statement could resolve YES. A statement that he "has decided to fire" Powell counts under the rules, with no formal document needed. https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoniopequenoiv/2026/09/30/trump-calls-for-jerome-powells-forced-resignation-from-fed-board-after-watchdog-report/ - [2026-09-30] Trump told reporters "Powell is a disaster" and "should not be sitting" on the Board, and tasked AG Blanche with a "determination". A DOJ-framed move would count if Blanche's review ends in a civil suit or a quo warranto-style action seeking removal, which would be "formal legal proceedings for removal". Trump has also floated a "gross incompetence lawsuit" since Dec 2025. That is a repeated, specific plan, not a one-off. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/fed-inspector-general-report-powell-trump.html - [2026-04-15] Trump framed the April threat as an escalation: he had previously "held back" because he "hate[s] being controversial". He conditioned the firing on Powell staying on the Board. Powell is still on the Board, so the condition he named is met. https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2026/04/15/trump-says-hell-fire-jerome-powell-if-he-doesnt-leave-as-doj-probe-continues/ - [2026-10-01] The strongest YES path: (1) Powell stays; he said he would stay until the legal threat was "well and truly over", and the DOJ declined to reopen on Oct 3. (2) After the Nov 3 midterms, Blanche or Pirro finds a "cause" theory, such as the outside audit or the IG's cost findings. (3) Trump sends Powell a notice, opens a Cook-style process or states he is removing him. (4) Courts then decide the matter, but the market resolves on the attempt. The prerequisites are a cause theory and political will. The June 2026 Cook ruling gives a clear procedural route. https://qz.com/trump-fed-governors-removal-powell-cook-barr-100226 - [2025-07-17] Trump's earlier Powell reversal shows how fast he walks threats back, but he also said he did not "rule out anything". The only thing that stopped the July 2025 letter was legal advice. Lawyers had warned against the renovation-cause strategy, and officials privately admitted the argument was uncertain. Even so, the Cook precedent and the Supreme Court's outline of a process have since reduced that obstacle. https://www.yahoo.com/news/behind-trumps-move-back-off-155609995.html BOTTOM LINE: The best YES case is that Trump has publicly tied Powell's removal to a possible suit or "determination" from Blanche, and the Cook committee shows a ready procedure for removing a governor. A post-election step against Powell, such as a notice, a memo or a lawsuit, is plausible, but it would need a cause theory the IG report does not supply. NOT FOUND: Any Powell-specific notice, committee, firing letter or statement of firing as of Oct 12. Any outcome from Blanche's or Pirro's review of the IG report. Any reporting that the White House is preparing a Powell removal process alongside Cook's.

YES means: Before Jan 1, 2027, Trump takes a qualifying step to fire Jerome Powell from the Fed Board. Qualifying steps are a signed termination document, a direction to an official to terminate him, a public statement that he has fired or decided to fire him, a White House announcement, a termination letter sent to Powell, or formal legal proceedings for removal. The sources below mostly come from search snippets. The CNN Oct 9 page rendered, but the article body was truncated. The CNBC Oct 1 page and the qz page could not be fetched. - [2026-10-01] The Supreme Court's Trump v. Cook ruling made notice and a hearing a precondition for any governor's removal, according to TechTimes. The same piece argues the IG's finding of no misconduct makes a "for cause" claim against Powell weaker than the Cook claim the Court already rejected. A letter that skips process would be void, which is a strong reason for the White House to build a record first. Building a record would be visible in advance, and none exists for Powell. https://www.techtimes.com/articles/328399/20261001/federal-reserve-ig-clears-powell-forced-removal-now-blocked-supreme-court.htm - [2026-10-01] CNBC's headline says removing the three governors "may be harder than it looks". Its summary says the Cook ruling required notice and a chance to respond. It also says Cook stayed on the Board during litigation. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/01/trump-fed-powell-lisa-cook-michael-barr-removal.html - [2026-10-01] Tokenpost says the Fed's renovation review "did not assign responsibility to Jerome Powell". It adds that the record does not show Trump has decided to pursue all three removals. https://www.tokenpost.com/news/regulation/26225 - [2026-09-30] Trump's own Truth Social wording was "forced to resign" or "sued ... by the United States Government". Both fall under excluded categories: a resignation demand, and a call (not an action) to sue. He also only asked Blanche to "study" the IG report and make a determination. Referring the matter to DOJ is not a termination step. https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trump-says-asked-blanche-study-213714800.html - [2026-10-02] A suit is the route Trump named, and a suit is slow. qz/CNBC say "Any legal action could take months to resolve." Even if DOJ sued, it would probably be framed as a suit over cost or incompetence, not as a removal proceeding. That framing is a technicality that favors NO. https://qz.com/trump-fed-governors-removal-powell-cook-barr-100226 - [2026-10-04] Blanche said DOJ would not reopen a criminal probe on these findings. Criminal exposure could return only if the Fed's outside audit, which Warsh has committed to, finds wrongdoing. Warsh said the Fed would hire an independent auditor to verify all awarded costs. That audit is unlikely to report before the Oct 27–28 FOMC meeting, and probably not by year-end. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/trump-aide-hassett-says-powell-155243251.html and https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20260930-trump-renews-calls-for-former-federal-reserve-chair-jerome-powell-resignation - [2026-10-09] The Cook process (committee memo, Nov 5 hearing, Nov 10 follow-up) shows the White House's current removal pipeline is aimed at Cook. Cook is also on the "potential for-cause firing" list, per CNN's snippet. CNN's snippet only says Powell and Barr "are also on the list". That is a list, not a process. Any Powell process would need its own committee and hearing, which would be visible well ahead of a firing. https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/09/economy/white-house-investigation-fed-lisa-cook - [2026-01-14] Trump told Reuters he had "no plan" to fire Powell even while the DOJ probe was live. Under a strong pretext he still held back. The pretext is now weaker. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/exclusive-trump-says-no-plan-011015999.html - [2026-04-29] Press secretary Leavitt said she had not discussed firing Powell as governor with Trump. This was after Trump's conditional "I'll have to fire him" threat, which came without follow-through when Powell stayed. The same Trump quote also said "I've held back firing him." That is two-plus years of stated reluctance to act. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/article/jerome-powell-announces-plans-to-remain-on-federal-reserve-board-citing-series-of-legal-attacks-against-the-central-bank-184617819.html - [2026-10-04] Hassett's "time for him to move on" is the administration's current stance on Powell. It is a request for voluntary resignation, which the rules explicitly exclude. It signals pressure rather than preparation for firing. https://finance.biggo.com/news/d38f55e9-0d9f-4cef-9aa2-8e0d0b00a915 - [2026-08 to 2026-10] Fox Business, 2025: Trump said he "would love to fire" Powell, "but we're so close". His pattern is repeated threats and no action. Fox notes the president lacks authority to fire the chair except for cause. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/trump-calls-fed-chair-powell-fool-threatens-lawsuit-over-headquarters-renovation - [2026-10-12] Remaining window is about 80 days. Cook's Nov 5 hearing, the Cook ruling's aftermath, the Oct 27–28 FOMC meeting and the pending audit all consume White House attention and legal bandwidth. Powell holds a single FOMC vote, and Warsh is chair, so the policy payoff from removing Powell is small. This is my inference, not a sourced fact. BOTTOM LINE: Status quo points to NO. Trump has threatened Powell for years without a qualifying act. His latest moves (resign or be sued, a DOJ "study", Hassett's "move on") all fall in the excluded categories. The Court's process requirement and the IG's clean finding raise the cost of any formal firing, and no Powell-specific committee or notice exists. The main loophole risk is a loosely worded Trump statement or a DOJ suit that gets read as removal proceedings. NOT FOUND: Any Powell-specific committee of inquiry, notice letter or draft removal document as of Oct 12. Any White House statement after Oct 5 on Blanche's review outcome. Full text of the CNBC Oct 1 and CNN Oct 9 articles (the CNN body was truncated). Any statement that the audit will finish before year-end.