Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

- [2026-10-06] Collins (R, incumbent) and Troy Jackson (D) held the first of four debates, hosted by CBS News 13 in Portland. Collins distanced herself from Trump, saying she's "not exactly his favorite senator". Jackson tied her to Trump, tariffs, the Iran war and her 2018 Kavanaugh vote. CNN says the four debates fall within 10 days. https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/06/politics/maine-senate-debate-susan-collins-troy-jackson-takeaways - [2026-10-06] Remaining debates: Oct 8 (reported as held, not independently confirmed), Oct 13 and Oct 15. Early voting has already begun in Maine. https://www.ms.now/liveblog/susan-collins-troy-jackson-maine-senate-debate-2026-live-updates - [2026-10-06] A ProPublica story, published in the days before the debate, alleges a pay-to-play scheme involving Collins' office. Collins called it "completely false". MS NOW framed the timing as bad for Collins. https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/06/politics/maine-senate-debate-susan-collins-troy-jackson-takeaways - [2026-10-06] Trump has floated a Maine rally. Collins said she has heard nothing from his office. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-07/-we-can-t-eat-road-salt-collins-jackson-spar-in-maine-debate - [2026-07-25] Jackson, a former state Senate president, became the Democratic nominee at a party convention. He replaced Graham Platner, who withdrew on July 10 after a sexual assault accusation and other controversies. Collins was the only Republican to qualify in the June 9 primary. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Maine - [2026-10-12] The election is on Nov 3, 2026, using ranked-choice voting. Democrats have not won a Maine Senate race since 1988. Collins is the only Republican senator from a state Trump never won. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Maine - [2026-09-22] Inside Elections moved Maine from Tilt Republican to Toss-up. Per a secondary aggregator, Cook and Sabato also rate it Toss-up. https://uspoliticalrank.com/rankings/senate-races-2026 - [2026-10-08] Ballotpedia lists Sabato as Toss-up and Inside Elections as Tilt Republican, which is stale against the Sept 22 change above. Cook's page shows Maine rated Toss-up as of about Apr 27, and its Jackson-era blurb describes Jackson as a "generic enough Democrat". Cook's current rating was not confirmed. https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Maine,_2026 - [2026-10-07] Media describe the race as "neck-and-neck". I found no poll of Collins vs Jackson dated September or October. https://www.wavy.com/news/national/collins-jackson-clash-in-first-maine-senate-debate-3-takeaways/ - [2026-07-15] Only Jackson-era poll found: a NOTUS-reported poll taken right after the Platner story had Jackson at 47 and Collins at 48. A Platner internal had Jackson ahead 49 to 44. Both are old and mostly pre-nomination. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5961588-potential-platner-replacements-neck-in-neck-with-susan-collins-in-new-maine-senate-poll/ - [2026-06-29] Last full public polls with Platner: NYT/Siena had Platner at 49 and Collins at 47. Fox had Collins at 50 and Platner at 47. These are not directly relevant to Jackson. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5949541-susan-collins-graham-platner-maine-senate-race-fox-survey/ - [2026-07-16] Sabato kept the race at Toss-up. It expected Collins to have a candidate-to-candidate cash advantage through the race. https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-maine-senate-do-over-and-rating-changes-in-other-pine-tree-state-races/ BOTTOM LINE: The race is rated a Toss-up by the major raters, with Inside Elections having moved toward Democrats on Sept 22. The late-breaking ProPublica story and the compressed debate schedule are the main near-term factors. I found no recent public polls with Jackson, so the current polling margin is unknown. NOT FOUND: Any Sept–Oct 2026 Collins-vs-Jackson public poll; the current RCP, 538 or Silver Bulletin averages (the RCP page returned empty); the current Cook rating; AP, Fox or NBC race calls (none expected before Nov 3); the Oct 8 debate coverage; campaign finance totals.

- [2026-10-12] Polymarket's own page (not this contract's price) says the "Maine Senate Election Winner" market resolves around Nov 3. Its commentary says October polls put Jackson (D) narrowly ahead or tied with Collins. Trader consensus is described as a "modest edge" for Jackson. https://polymarket.com/event/maine-senate-election-winner - [2026-10-08] Pollsmax average of 24 polls, time-weighted and partisanship-adjusted: Jackson 49.2%, Collins 46.6% (D+2.7). The last 10 polls (Sept 22–Oct 8) range from D+4 to R+3. Examples: Rasmussen D+2, WaPo D+4, Marist D+4, CBS/YouGov tied, co/efficient (R) R+2, NYT/Siena (Sept 22) R+3. https://www.pollsmax.com/senate/maine/ - [2026-10-08] Race history: Platner won the June 9 primary. He withdrew July 10 after a rape allegation. Maine Democrats nominated Troy Jackson on July 25. Because a replacement nominee ran, the Democratic side of this market resolves on Jackson. https://www.pollsmax.com/senate/maine/ - [2026-09-28] Forecaster ratings: Inside Elections moved Maine from Tilt R to Toss-up on 2026-09-22. Cook and Sabato had it at Toss-up since at least July. Ballotpedia also showed Cook and Sabato at Toss-up, with Inside Elections at Tilt R, in its March tables. No major rater has Maine leaning toward either party. https://uspoliticalrank.com/rankings/senate-races-2026 - [2026-10-06] Prediction markets: Polymarket had Jackson at 58.5% and Kalshi at 55.5% (midpoint). The site flags Maine as one of only two Senate races with no candidate at 60% or higher. https://polymarkettrader.com/odds/senate-forecast-2026/ - [2026-10-03] Market history: Democrats were at about 74% on Polymarket in late March (Platner era). They were about 59% on Kalshi on 2026-07-08. They were about 66% in August and about 60% on Kalshi in early October (down 4 points in a week). Markets have run consistently more pro-D than a price-blind six-AI-model panel, which gave Collins about 57% in August. https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/2026-midterms/ ; https://www.oddsshopper.com/articles/prediction-markets/maine-senate-2026-model-verdict - [2026-10-03] Environment: Democrats were about 65% to win Senate control, averaged across Kalshi and Polymarket. The NYT/Siena poll from June had Trump's Maine approval at 38% against 59% disapproval. The same poll had Democrats +11 on the generic ballot. https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/2026-midterms/ ; https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5945205-maine-senate-race-poll-platner-collins/ - [2026-07-xx] Outside view, Collins: she won in 2020 by 8.6 points (51.0% to 42.4%) despite polls that had her trailing. Harris carried Maine by 6.9 points in 2024. Collins is the only Republican senator defending a Harris-won state. Democrats have not won a Maine Senate election since 1988. Collins has won every Senate race since 1996. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/maine/collins-vs-platner ; https://www.thewellnews.com/us-senate/senate-is-up-for-grabs-as-battle-lines-harden-in-midterm-election/ - [2026-07-xx] Sabato (post-Platner): expects a less damaged Democratic candidate. It also says Collins will likely hold a candidate-to-candidate cash advantage through the campaign. https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-maine-senate-do-over-and-rating-changes-in-other-pine-tree-state-races/ - [2026-04-27] Cook, after the switch to Jackson: calls Jackson a "generic enough Democrat" to benefit from Collins's and Trump's unpopularity. Republicans bet that independents will back the well-known Collins. Cook shows the race at Toss-up (the page also lists a Lean R rating dated Oct 2025). https://www.cookpolitical.com/senate/race/488601 - [2026-06] Polling error base rate: the 2020 Maine polls underrated Collins by roughly 10 points. In the late-June Platner polls, Fox News had Collins +3 while NYT/Siena had Platner +2. Pollsters this cycle have been close to a coin flip. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2026/maine/collins-vs-platner BOTTOM LINE: Polls give Jackson a small lead of about 2–3 points in the average, but the individual polls are split. Raters call it a pure toss-up, and betting markets price Democrats at roughly 55–60%. The Collins history (outperforming polls in 2020, Maine ticket-splitting) is a countervailing factor, while the midterm environment against the president's party favors Democrats. NOT FOUND: Silver Bulletin, Economist, Split Ticket and 538-style model probabilities for Maine specifically. Current Cook and Sabato rating dates after July. Any evidence the race has been called. A systematic base rate for the track record of Maine pollsters beyond the 2020 miss.

YES means: Democratic nominee Troy Jackson wins the Nov 3, 2026 Maine U.S. Senate race, as called by AP, Fox and NBC or, failing that, by certification. - [2026-10-06] Marist (Oct 1–4, n=1,505 registered voters, ±3.8) has Jackson 51, Collins 47. Independents split 52–45 for Jackson. The Maine generic ballot is D+9 (54–45), and independents are D+14 on it. Trump's approval is 40/59. Jackson's lead therefore sits inside a much more Democratic generic-ballot environment. https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-maine-october-2026/ - [2026-10-09] The WaPo-Schar poll (Sept 30–Oct 5, 800 likely voters) has Jackson 50, Collins 46. This is a likely-voter screen rather than registered voters, and it was fielded before the debates. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/09/poll-democrat-troy-jackson-narrowly-leads-susan-collins-maine-senate-race/ (search snippet only; page not fetchable) - [2026-10-02] AARP (reported by The Hill about Oct 2) has Jackson 50, Collins 47. The Sept 17–21 UNH poll has Jackson 51–47. UMass Lowell has Jackson 48–43, with independents 40–32 and 22% of them undecided. Collins' favorability is 40/47. That is at least five separate polls with Jackson ahead since mid-September. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6123742-troy-jackson-susan-collins-maine-aarp-poll/ ; https://www.newsweek.com/susan-collins-troy-jackson-maine-senate-race-poll-12482806 - [2026-10-11] The FiftyPlusOne average is Jackson 49.1, Collins 46.8 (D+2). That agrees with the Pollsmax average already reported. https://fiftyplusone.news/polls/senate/general/maine - [2026-10-08] Decision Desk HQ's forecast gives Jackson 53% and calls him "the slightest of favorites". Obama endorsed Jackson on Oct 8. https://www.bangordailynews.com/2026/10/08/politics/elections/live-updates-susan-collins-troy-jackson-debate/ - [2026-10-02] In the CBS/YouGov poll, 10% of voters can still change their minds. Jackson's support is driven by voters who say Collins agrees with Trump too much, by tariff opponents, and by voters who want Democrats to control the Senate. Voters who say Trump's policies have hurt Maine's economy mostly back Jackson. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/maine-senate-poll-2026-10-02/ - [2026-10-09] The second debate (Oct 8) kept Collins' ProPublica problem alive. The BDN fact-check says her answer, that the matter was settled under Biden, "doesn't address the central point". Jackson is also pressing her on 2020 PAC donations that drew an FBI investigation. Two more debates are scheduled, on Oct 13 and Oct 15. This gives Jackson a way to turn a persistent integrity story into the late-deciding vote. https://www.bangordailynews.com/2026/10/09/politics/elections/fact-checking-2nd-debate-susan-collins-troy-jackson/ - [2026-10-12] Money gap is closing in the air war. Collins led on cash at the June 30 filing ($11.0M). Jackson raised $5.3M through ActBlue in July alone, and Q3 reports are due Oct 15. AdImpact shows Democrats within 7% of Republicans on ad volume in later reservations, and the Democratic Senate Majority PAC has booked $33M against $42M for the Senate Leadership Fund. Jackson's side has therefore narrowed the spending disadvantage that Sabato had expected to persist. https://thewellnews.com/us-senate/senate-is-up-for-grabs-as-battle-lines-harden-in-midterm-election - [2026-10-12] Ballot mechanics: only Collins and Jackson are on the ballot. Six declared write-ins exist (including two Democrats and no Republicans), and these trigger ranked-choice voting. A write-in cannot realistically spoil a two-way race. A one-point Jackson lead would still decide it, and no Platner-style split on the Democratic side is on the ballot. https://mainemorningstar.com/2026/08/26/six-write-in-candidates-file-for-maine-u-s-senate-race-prompting-ranked-choice-voting/ - [2026-10-10] Bernie Sanders rallied with Jackson in Bangor. The BDN headline describes the Senate race as tightening. This points to a progressive turnout push in a state where Democrats won Maine by 6.9 points in 2024. https://www.bangordailynews.com/2026/10/10/politics/bernie-sanders-troy-jackson-bangor-maine-rally/ (headline only, from the BDN page's "Most Read" list) - [2026-09-22] Most likely path to YES. (1) The environment is D+9 on the Maine generic ballot, with Trump at 40% approval. (2) Collins' 2020 polling outperformance does not repeat, because she is now tied to an unpopular Trump and the Iran war and faces the ProPublica story. (3) Independents, who favor Jackson by 7 to 8 points in the Marist and UMass Lowell polls, hold. (4) Jackson's labor-logger profile holds up against the "24-year Augusta insider" attack. Jackson already leads in the averages, so YES requires only that the current average holds, with no Collins-style polling miss. https://www.newsweek.com/susan-collins-troy-jackson-maine-senate-race-poll-12482806 BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case is that Jackson leads the polling averages by about 2 points, led in at least five polls from mid-September to early October, and benefits from a D+9 state environment and an unresolved corruption story. Collins' one-in-five Trump-disapprover crossover, her 2020 polling overperformance and her cash edge are the main obstacles to this path. NOT FOUND: Q3 FEC totals (due Oct 15). Any poll taken after the Oct 8 debate. The full WaPo page and Marist crosstabs on likely voters. A current Cook rating.

YES means: the Democratic nominee (Troy Jackson) wins the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate race. A Collins win, or any non-Democrat winner, resolves NO. - [2026-10-02] The CBS/YouGov poll (Sept 23–Oct 1, 1,144 registered voters, ±4.7) shows a tie, with 10% of voters still persuadable. Collins takes about one in five Trump disapprovers. It finds Jackson running behind Democratic gubernatorial nominee Pingree, who is getting some ticket-splitters who back Collins. Four in 10 Democrats and most independents wish someone else were the nominee. That points to a Collins-specific crossover vote that the Democratic generic-ballot lead does not capture. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/maine-senate-poll-2026-10-02/ - [2026-10-04] The Marist poll (Oct 1–4) has Jackson +4 among registered voters, and the generic ballot is D+9. Jackson's Senate margin is about 5 points below the generic-ballot gap, which is the Collins ticket-splitting gap. 57% of Maine voters, including many Jackson backers, expect Collins to win (41% say Jackson). https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/midterm-elections-in-maine-october-2026/ - [2026-10-09] The Washington Post/Schar poll (Sept 30–Oct 5, likely voters) has Jackson at 50–46, within the margin of error. It fielded after the ProPublica story, and Collins still held a 24-point lead on bringing federal money to Maine. Voters also rated her better on bipartisanship, even though 52% said her 30 years in office were a bad thing. The scandal had not produced a Collins collapse. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/10/09/poll-democrat-troy-jackson-narrowly-leads-susan-collins-maine-senate-race/ - [2026-10-11] The FiftyPlusOne average is Jackson 49.1, Collins 46.8 (D+2). Jackson is below 50 and the lead is smaller than the Sept 17–21 UNH (+4) and UMass Lowell (+5) polls. The Sept 22 NYT/Siena/Press Herald poll (Aug 28–Sept 14, 650 likely voters) had Collins 49–46, her first independent-poll lead. Newsweek notes Jackson's favorability was net negative (39 favorable, 42 unfavorable) in that poll. A 2-point average lead is well inside the historical Maine polling error. https://fiftyplusone.news/polls/senate/general/maine ; https://www.newsweek.com/susan-collins-troy-jackson-maine-senate-race-poll-12482806 - [2026-09-14] Newsweek's comparison with 2020 cites the view that Maine is hard to poll because of its independent electorate and rural population. Collins won an outright majority in 2020 despite polls showing her trailing. Axios (Aug 14) reports Republicans pointing out that Collins faced similar margins at this stage in 2020. https://www.newsweek.com/troy-jackson-polling-lead-susan-collins-sara-gideon-12292873 ; https://www.axios.com/2026/08/14/maine-senate-susan-collins-troy-jackson-graham-platner - [2026-08-26] Ballot mechanics: only Collins and Jackson are on the ballot. Six write-in candidates registered, none a Republican, so ranked-choice voting applies, but the third line is write-in only and an undeclared write-in is not counted. With no significant third option, RCV is unlikely to change the plurality outcome. No Platner write-in appears among the declared candidates, so there is no Democratic-lane splitter, though write-in candidates Olson and Webb are registered Democrats. https://mainemorningstar.com/2026/08/26/six-write-in-candidates-file-for-maine-u-s-senate-race-prompting-ranked-choice-voting/ - [2026-10-01] Money favors Collins. Pro-Collins Pine Tree Results PAC just put nearly $2M more into TV ads against Jackson. Its 2020 predecessor spent nearly $12M, and filings show this PAC has nearly doubled that. As of July 27, AdImpact had GOP-aligned groups booking about $62M against Democrats' $23M. Senate Leadership Fund committed $42M+ to Maine. Collins had $11M cash on hand as of June 30, and Jackson started from scratch after Platner withdrew. Senate Majority PAC's $3.4M ProPublica ad (Oct 2) is a partial offset. https://www.mainepublic.org/politics/2026-10-01/pro-collins-pac-takes-out-2-million-ad-buy-attacking-jackson ; https://www.pressherald.com/2026/07/27/how-troy-jackson-and-susan-collins-are-attacking-one-another-in-maines-u-s-senate-race/ ; https://www.axios.com/2026/10/02/democrats-susan-collins-allegations-maine-senate-propublica - [2026-10-02] Axios reads Senate Majority PAC's $3.4M ProPublica-based ad buy as a sign that Democrats think the story has not broken through with Maine voters. Collins says she was cleared. The Bangor Daily News (Sept 22) reported Republican concern, but the WaPo poll showed no big move. The story is complex and contested, with Collins' denial and the claim that she was cleared by the Biden administration. https://www.axios.com/2026/10/02/democrats-susan-collins-maine-senate-propublica ; https://www.pressherald.com/2026/10/09/another-polls-shows-troy-jackson-leading-a-tight-maine-senate-race/ - [2026-10-09] The Hill's report on the second debate notes Collins won in 2020 by roughly 9 points. Jackson also faces scrutiny of his own finances ("both candidates' financial moves"), which blunts the pure-corruption contrast. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6138012-second-maine-senate-debate-collins-jackson-takeaways/ - [2026-10-12] Resolution mechanics all favor the status quo. The resolution rests on AP, Fox and NBC calls, or on certification if they disagree. Collins is the sitting senator, so any delay, such as a recount or a long RCV tabulation, leaves her as the incumbent. A very close margin could take days to call. The market closes Nov 4, so a close race resolves only after calls or certification. I found no reported ballot or nominee problem for Jackson: he is the replacement nominee, so the market resolves on Jackson. https://polymarket.com/event/maine-senate-election-winner BOTTOM LINE: The NO case rests on Collins's record of beating her polls (2020), a ticket-splitting gap of about 5 points behind the generic ballot (Marist, CBS), a large GOP spending edge, and a Jackson lead of about 2 points, well within Maine's polling error. The incumbent keeps the seat if the race stays tied, and no poll shows Jackson clearly above 50% with a safe cushion. NOT FOUND: Any post-debate poll after Oct 8; Oct 8 debate coverage; Jackson's Q3 FEC cash total; current Cook rating; any AP/Fox/NBC call.