Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?

- [2026-10-11] Latest polls show Eisenkot's Yashar narrowly ahead of Likud in most surveys. The Jerusalem Post's roundup of four polls had Kan 11 at Yashar 23 and Likud 21, and Channel 12 at 23 and 21. Channel 13 had a 20–20 tie, and Maariv had Likud gaining a seat. https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-911262 - [2026-10-11] A Haaretz poll report says Yashar is still the largest party at 22 seats, with Likud down one to 20 and Bennett's Together steady at 12. It puts Eisenkot's bloc at 50 seats and the coalition at 53. https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/2026-10-11/ty-article/israel-election-poll-eisenkot-bloc-continues-slump-as-coalition-gains-ground/000001a1-2c63-d7a5-a7b1-be7397560000 - [2026-10-07/08] Wikipedia's polling table lists the following Likud-versus-Yashar results, which I read as Likud first and Yashar last of the seat columns: - Maariv: 20 v 21. - Zman Yisrael: 20 v 24. - Kantar/Israel Hayom: 21 v 22. - Channel 13: 20 v 20. - Channel 12 (5 Oct): 21 v 23. - Kan (4 Oct): 21 v 23. - Pro-Likud pollsters differ sharply. Direct Polls/i24 (7 Oct) has Likud 26 and Yashar 20. Channel 14 (7 Oct) has Likud 31 and Yashar 23. - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Israeli_legislative_election - [2026-10-09] Maariv reported that Likud gained a seat, tying the coalition and opposition blocs at 52 each. https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-911139 - [2026-09-23] A Channel 12 poll had Yashar 23, Likud 20 and Together 13. https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/2026-09-23/ty-article/israel-election-poll-eisenkots-bloc-beats-netanyahu-as-likud-gains-ground/000001a0-cafa-dfbe-a3ff-ffffd6250000 - [2026-09-17] A Channel 13 poll had Likud at 18, its lowest tally in recent months, against Yashar's 22. https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/2026-09-17/ty-article/israeli-election-poll-sees-pro-netanyahu-bloc-edge-ahead-of-eisenkot/000001a0-ad41-dea8-afe0-eded00220000 - [2026-09-07/08] 38 lists were submitted to the Central Elections Committee on 7–8 September. Likud filed on its own, and Bennett and Lapid run together as Beyachad. Eisenkot's Yashar absorbed a small center-right party. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/9/israeli-parties-submit-slates-for-october-knesset-elections - [2026-10-06 to 10-11] Likud signed a surplus-vote agreement with Religious Zionism–Zehut on 6 October. Shas and UTJ signed one on 11 October. The deadline to file surplus-vote agreements is 16 October. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Israeli_legislative_election - [2026-10-02] The Supreme Court overturned the committee's 23 September bar on the Joint List and Ra'am, so Arab lists are running. https://israeled.org/38-party-lists-israels-2026-parliamentary-election/ - [2026-09-26/10-11] There is no opposition merger. Yashar, Together, Yisrael Beiteinu and the Democrats signed a coordination declaration on 26 September, but they have not agreed on who would be their candidate for PM. Eisenkot says the largest party should supply the nominee. Bennett disagrees. https://jns.org/feature/israels-political-parties-explained-together - [2026-10-27 onward] The election is on 27 October. The Central Elections Committee is due to publish official results by 4 November, and Herzog must assign a mandate by 11 November. Both dates are before the 30 June 2027 backstop. https://israeled.org/38-party-lists-israels-2026-parliamentary-election/ - [2026-10-11] The Maariv-reported poll average for the two blocs is about 52 seats each. Winter's People of Israel hovers around the 3.25% threshold. https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-911262 BOTTOM LINE: Likud has not led in any mainstream (non-Channel 14/Direct Polls) poll in recent weeks. Yashar leads by 0–4 seats, and Channel 13 shows a tie, so the gap is small and pollster-dependent. The last-minute trend is a slight Likud/coalition gain, and the Likud-friendly pollsters show a much larger Likud lead. NOT FOUND: Official Central Elections Committee results (the election hasn't happened). Any poll published after 11 October. Any late Yashar–Together merger.

- [2026-10-12] The MEF poll of polls averages five polling houses (fieldwork 24 Sep–8 Oct) and has Likud at 23 seats (mean 21.6, range 20–26) and Yashar (Eisenkot) at 22 (mean 21.4, range 20–23). The averages are almost tied. The pollsters split into two camps. Direct Polls/i24 shows Likud ahead by 4–6 seats, and Maariv, Kan and Channel 12 show Yashar ahead. https://israelvote.meforum.org/ - [2026-10-11] Latest polls. Maariv (8 Oct): Yashar 21, Likud 20. Channel 13 (7 Oct): tie at 20–20. Kan/Kantar: Yashar 23, Likud 21. Channel 12: Yashar 23, Likud 21. The bloc average is roughly 52–52. https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-911262 - [2026-10-08] i24NEWS/Direct Polls (fieldwork 7 Oct): Likud 26 (down 2 on the previous week), Yashar 20, Bennett's B'Yachad 11. This is the outlier pollster, and it has consistently favoured Likud. https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/israel-election-s-2026/artc-i24news-poll-netanyahu-and-eisenkot-fall-while-bennett-rises-full-poll - [2026-10-07] Channel 14, an openly pro-Netanyahu outlet, has Netanyahu leading the PM-preference question 52 to 34 over Eisenkot. It is a very different house effect from mainstream pollsters. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Israeli_legislative_election - [2026-09-10] After the party lists closed, 4 of 5 polls showed Yashar first, and the average was Yashar 23.6, Likud 21.8. https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-908282 - [2026-08-19] Kan: Yashar 24, Likud 23 after the Likud primaries. Eisenkot launched his campaign in June 2026 and has challenged Likud for first place since. https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-905980 and https://www.britannica.com/event/2026-Israeli-Elections - [2026-04-17] Earlier in the cycle Likud led comfortably: Maariv had Likud 25 and Bennett 2026 24. Likud had been at 27 before the Iran war began on 28 Feb. Yashar was then a minor party. https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-893334 - [2026-07-17] The Knesset dissolved and the election is set for 27 Oct 2026, the first on its legal date since 1988. Official results should come well before the 30 June 2027 "Other" cutoff. Coalition negotiations are not part of resolution, which turns only on seat counts. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/7/17/israel-headed-for-october-election-as-parliament-dissolved - [2022-11-01] Base rate. Likud has been the largest party in every Knesset election since 2009 except the first 2019 vote, where it tied Blue and White. In 2022 it won 32 seats, against 24 for Yesh Atid. (The pre-2009 history comes from my own knowledge and was not checked in this session.) The 2022 figures are confirmed here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Israeli_legislative_election - [2026-10-12] Market-rule point: "Together" (Bennett–Lapid) is a listed option, and the rules treat mergers separately. Yashar is the main rival and is not named in the rules text. Likud resolves as the party list with the most seats, with ties broken by valid votes. - [2026-10-12] Polling caveats. Pollster spread is wide (Likud 20–28 across houses). Small, volatile parties near the threshold (Winter, Hendel/Zelekha) are a source of noise. Israeli polls have historically tended to understate Likud and the right relative to final results, though I did not verify this here. Polls are banned from the Friday before election day. BOTTOM LINE: The outside view is a genuine toss-up, with a slight Yashar lead in most mainstream polls (about 1–3 seats) and a Likud lead of 4–6 seats in Direct Polls/i24. The poll-of-polls average is Likud 23 and Yashar 22. Likud's long record of finishing first and the possible Israeli polling bias toward the right are partial counterweights to Eisenkot's polling lead. NOT FOUND: Quantified track record of Israeli pollsters on Likud's final seat share. Expert-model forecasts (e.g. from analysts or aggregators other than MEF). Other venues' betting odds, which I did not search for.

YES means: Likud wins strictly more Knesset seats than any other single list in the 27 Oct 2026 election. A tie on seats is broken by valid votes. Likud's main rival is Eisenkot's Yashar. - [2026-10-12] The israel.com tracker averages the latest poll from each of 9 outlets. It has Likud 22.1 and Yashar 21.9, with Likud first in 3 of 9 polls. Likud ranges 19–31 and Yashar 20–24. The gap is 0.2 seat, so the lead is within noise. Yashar's average is down 1.1 since 8 Sep, while Likud's is down 0.1. https://www.israel.com/israel-election-2026 - [2026-10-12] The same tracker quantifies house effects. Channel 14 (Filber/Next Data) runs +8.8 seats on Likud against other outlets, and i24/Direct Polls runs higher too. Mainstream houses run lower: Maariv −5.1 and Channel 12 −3.6 on the coalition total. A YES case rests on the idea that the Likud-friendly houses are right and the mainstream ones are not. https://www.israel.com/israel-election-2026 - [2026-08-11] Israel Elects says Direct Polls and its sister Next Data are the only pollsters showing Netanyahu near victory, and calls the gap "highly unusual". It says the pollsters' track record is mixed and that methods can fail in some elections. The detailed scorecard is paywalled, so Direct Polls' accuracy is unverified. https://israelects.substack.com/p/the-pollster-scorecard - [2015 analysis] Precedent for Likud beating the polls: the poll average projected 22 seats and Likud won 30. Analysts attributed this to right-wing voters migrating within the bloc late and telling pollsters otherwise. This is old and not specific to 2026. https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/260263 - [2026-10-11] The Kan poll shows 30% of voters undecided. Among coalition-bloc voters 24% are undecided, against 20% in the opposition. Likud is the natural landing place for undecided right-leaning voters. Yashar itself estimates a pool of about 200,000 "soft" Likud voters (2026-10-04), and these could break either way. https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-911378 and https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-910509 - [2026-10-11] The trend favours the coalition bloc. The Kan poll has it ahead 53–50 even as Yashar leads by 2 seats. Yashar's "largest party" campaign has been toned down because it mostly competed within the opposition bloc. https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-911378 - [2026-10-08] Mainstream polls that put Yashar first mostly do so by 1–4 seats. Maariv has 21–20 and Channel 13 has 20–20. In a ±4.4% sample of 500, a 1–2 seat lead is statistically meaningless. The Zman Yisrael poll is the outlier favouring Yashar, at 24–20. https://www.israel.com/israel-election-2026 - [2026-10-11] Likud's vote is more concentrated than Yashar's rivals' votes. The opposition leaders are split among Yashar (21.9), Together (12.1) and the Democrats (8.9). The Likud-Religious Zionism-Zehut surplus pact was signed 6 Oct. The tracker lists Yashar's surplus pacts with the Democrats, and Together's with Yisrael Beiteinu, only for 10–12 Sep. Yashar and Together remain separate lists (so far as I found), and the opposition could still lose ground to strategic voting. https://www.israel.com/israel-election-2026 - [2026-10-12] Most likely path to YES: Direct Polls and Channel 14 prove right on Likud's strength, and the mainstream polls miss late right-bloc consolidation, as in 2015. In that case Likud finishes with about 24 or more seats against Yashar's low 20s. This requires that Likud holds or recovers to the 21–26 range. It also requires that undecided and soft right voters, including Winter's and Smotrich's marginal voters, consolidate behind Likud rather than Yashar. A narrower path is a mainstream-poll tie at 20–21 that breaks Likud's way on votes. BOTTOM LINE: The YES case rests on a statistical tie at the top, with Likud first in 3 of 9 polls and the tracker averages within 0.2 seat of each other. It also rests on Likud-friendly pollsters, a possible 2015-style late right-wing swing, and a high undecided share on the right. The main weakness is that all the mainstream pollsters, except Channel 13's tie, put Yashar ahead, and the Direct Polls track record is unverified. NOT FOUND: Verified 2022 and 2019 accuracy figures for Direct Polls and Channel 14 on Likud's seat count, because the scorecard is paywalled. Any poll published after 11 Oct. Expert forecast models other than the poll averages.

YES means: Likud wins more Knesset seats than any other single list in the 27 Oct 2026 election. A seat tie goes to the list with more valid votes. NO means another list finishes ahead, most plausibly Eisenkot's Yashar. I could not check the 2026 rival list's name against the contract's wording ("Together" is a listed option; Yashar is not named in the rules text). - [2026-10-12] Mainstream pollsters are nearly unanimous that Yashar leads. An aggregator's table of the latest poll from each outlet shows Yashar first in 7 of 9 outlets: Israel Hayom, Maariv, Zman Yisrael, Channel 13, Channel 12, Kan 11 and Channel 16. Likud is first in only 3 of 9 on its count. Its 22.1 vs 21.9 average is lifted by Channel 14 and i24/Direct Polls. Without Channel 14, the Likud-first count is lower. https://www.israel.com/israel-election-2026 - [2026-10-12] The same aggregator says Channel 14 has given the coalition 12.6 seats more than other outlets in the same fortnight. It says Maariv has given it 5.1 fewer. The Likud lead in the average depends on these two outliers. Since 8 Sep the Likud average is −0.1, so Likud has had no real upward trend. Yashar is −1.1 over the same period. https://www.israel.com/israel-election-2026 - [2026-10-12] A Kan poll reported today (TRT World) has Yashar 22 and Likud 20, with Likud down one on the previous week. This is the most recent public-broadcaster read. https://trtworld.com/article/f4c28ea95f6d - [2026-10-08] The Zman Yisrael/Times of Israel poll (Tatika, fieldwork 7–8 Oct, n=500) has Yashar 24 and Likud 20. A tie the week before had been reversed. A 4-seat gap is as large as the margin of error. Likud's apparent comeback to parity in some polls therefore proved fragile. https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/toi-poll-anti-netanyahu-bloc-regains-lead-eisenkots-yashar-comes-1st-with-likud-in-2nd-place/ - [2026-09-17] Likud's Channel 13 result of 18 (Yashar 22) was its lowest in that channel's polls. Times of Israel called it the lowest ever for the party in a Channel 13 poll. https://www.timesofisrael.com/in-turnaround-tv-poll-shows-netanyahus-bloc-slightly-ahead-of-opposition/ - [2026-10-12] In the "Likud first" scenario, Likud needs to be at about 22 or more. The only polls showing that are Channel 14 (31–32) and Direct Polls/i24 (26–27). Channel 14 and i24 have shown Likud 4–12 seats above the mainstream consensus. A Likud win would require the mainstream pollsters to be wrong in the same direction by 2–3 seats. https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-909804 - [2026-08 to 10] Yashar has led or tied in the mainstream polls continuously since at least July (Kan 12 Jul, Channel 13 6 Aug, Kan 19 Aug, Channel 12 8 Sep, Kan 4 Oct). That is about 3 months of leads. https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/2026-08-06/ty-article/poll-opposition-bloc-slips-to-58-seats-as-zionist-home-misses-threshold/0000019f-d5ca-d315-a1df-ffeedf480000 - [2026-10-12] Merger mechanics rule out a counter-risk to NO. Likud filed alone, and the opposition lists are not merged, so no combined list can beat Likud before the vote. Surplus-vote deals only affect the final seat division. Resolution is by the largest single list, so bloc strength (coalition ~51–53) does not matter. https://www.israel.com/israel-election-2026 - [2026-10-12] The Kan poll on PM preference had Netanyahu 39 and Eisenkot 38 (JPost, 28 Sep). Haaretz on 11 Oct shows Eisenkot ahead 43–38. Likud's competitive standing is therefore on bloc/PM preference, not on party size. The Kan survey showed Netanyahu stronger in the North (Likud 24, Yashar 20), but no national lead. https://www.jpost.com/israel-election-2026/article-909918 - [2026-10-11] Haaretz shows the opposition bloc dropping from 52 to 50. Ofer Winter's party is crossing the threshold, which feeds the coalition-gain narrative. This is a bloc effect, not a party effect, since Likud itself fell one seat. https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/elections/2026-10-11/ty-article/israel-election-poll-eisenkot-bloc-continues-slump-as-coalition-gains-ground/000001a1-2c63-d7a5-a7b1-be7397560000 - [2022-11-01] Counter-evidence I need to flag: in 2022 polls had a near-tied bloc race and Likud finished first with 32 seats vs 24 for Yesh Atid. Likud's final seat count has tended to exceed polling averages, partly through turnout, and the Likud share of "definitely voting" respondents has been lower in some past cycles (JNS 2020 report). This is the strongest challenge to the NO case, which depends on the polls being unbiased. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Israeli_legislative_election BOTTOM LINE: The NO case rests on every mainstream pollster showing Yashar level or ahead for 3 months, Likud at 18–21 in Channels 12, 13 and Kan, and Likud's average lead resting on two pro-Likud outliers. The main risk to NO is a systematic polling miss in Likud's favour of about 2–4 seats. NOT FOUND: Any poll published after 11 Oct, official results, a quantified record of Israeli pollsters' final Likud errors, and any late Yashar/Together merger.