Will North Dakota’s field production of crude oil for 2026 be above 421.101 million barrels?

- [2026-09-30] EIA's latest monthly North Dakota field production (thousand b/d) for 2026: Jan 1,127; Feb 1,124; Mar 1,126; Apr 1,135; May 1,120; Jun 1,159; Jul 1,158. EIA's next release is 2026-10-30, which should add August. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?f=M&n=PET&s=MCRFPND2 - [2026-09-30] EIA annual series shows 2025 at 1,171 thousand b/d, about 427.4 million bbl (my calculation). 2024 was 1,198 and 2023 was 1,193. The 2026 annual figure is not yet published; the page lists the next annual release as 2027-08-31. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPND2&f=A - [2026-10-12] My calculation: the 421,101 thousand bbl threshold equals about 1,154 thousand b/d for a 365-day year. Jan–Jul 2026 on EIA's monthly series, weighted by days, totals about 240.75 million bbl, an average of about 1,136 thousand b/d. To exceed the threshold, Aug–Dec (153 days) must average about 1,179 thousand b/d. That is roughly 20 thousand b/d above July's 1,158 and above any 2026 month so far. EIA's 2025 monthly values for Aug–Dec ranged 1,130–1,199. These figures are the EIA monthly values as currently published and are subject to revision. - [2026-09-21] Reuters, via BOE Report: state data had July output up 1,846 b/d to 1.157 million b/d. Pipeline Authority head Kringstad said he expected August to be stronger than July given activity and prices. The regulator expects momentum to continue in the following months. A DMR official said rig additions had leveled off after a late-summer increase, and workover activity is strong. (The page returned 403 to fetch; this is from the search snippet.) https://boereport.com/2026/09/21/north-dakota-oil-output-seen-rising-in-august-state-regulator-says/ - [2026-08-19] NDIC state data: June 2026 output rose 28,000 b/d from May to 1,153,000 b/d. Bakken/Three Forks was 1,126,000 b/d. https://boereport.com/2026/08/19/north-dakota-oil-production-up-28000-bpd-in-june-vs-may-to-1153000-bpd-state-regulator/amp/ - [2026-10-12] DMR Director's Cut schedule: August 2026 numbers are due 2026-10-20, September numbers on 2026-11-20, and October numbers on 2026-12-18. https://www.dmr.nd.gov/dmr/oilgas/directorscut - [2026-09 to 2026-10] Rig count was volatile. Bakken Wire reported 33 rigs on Oct 1 (up from 30 on Sep 24 and 36 on Sep 1; the date of this item is inferred from the text). Earlier in 2026 it was 23 (May 6, per Bakken Wire). An August 2026 snapshot showed 24 ND rigs. https://bakkenwire.com/article/north-dakota-rig-count-holds-at-23-as-operator-activity-churns-2026-05-06-hn692 - [2026-05] DMR reported February 2026 output of 1.129 million b/d against January's 1.125 million. Producing wells reached an all-time high of 19,625 in October 2025. https://www.minotdailynews.com/news/local-news/2026/05/nd-oil-production-remains-steady/ - [2025-12] Earlier outlook: DMR Director Anderson expected flat to slightly lower 2026 production, citing bearish prices and some curtailed volumes. https://www.kfyrtv.com/2025/12/11/oil-market-outlook-bearish-north-dakota-expects-flat-production-trend-2026/ - [2026 (undated snippet)] YCharts' summary line mentions EIA raising its 2026 price and U.S. production forecast as a war on Iran disrupts supply. This is a snippet, not a read page. It is consistent with the "robust crude prices" language in the September regulator briefing. https://ycharts.com/indicators/north_dakota_crude_oil_production - [2026-10-12] Timing: December 2026 data would be released by EIA around end of February 2027 (the pattern is the 2025 Dec value appearing on 2026-02-27 per YCharts). The market closes 2027-02-26, so the final resolution data may arrive at or just after the close. I did not confirm the exact release date. https://ycharts.com/indicators/north_dakota_crude_oil_production BOTTOM LINE: Through July, EIA-reported 2026 output is running about 1,136 thousand b/d, below the roughly 1,154 thousand b/d needed. Exceeding the threshold requires Aug–Dec to average about 1,179 thousand b/d, a level not yet reached in 2026. Regulators' signals of rising August output and higher prices point upward, but the required jump is still large. NOT FOUND: August 2026 production figures, which are due 2026-10-20 from the state and 2026-10-30 from EIA. Also not found: the current weekly rig count for October 2026, any EIA STEO Bakken or North Dakota 2026 forecast, and the exact EIA release date for December 2026 data.

- [2026-09-30] EIA annual North Dakota field production (kb/d) for 2020–2025 was 1,199, 1,121, 1,069, 1,193, 1,198 and 1,171. The only post-2019 year that beat 1,153.7 kb/d (the threshold's average rate) while 2026 was not already in progress was 2020, plus 2023–25. EIA lists the next annual release as 8/31/2027, but the Dec-2026 monthly figure should come out around the end of Feb 2027. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?f=A&n=PET&s=MCRFPND2 - [2026-09-30] I summed EIA's monthly 2025 figures, in thousand barrels, to 427,562 (about 427.6 million, 1,171 kb/d). The 421,101 threshold is about 1.5% below that, which is an average of about 1,153.7 kb/d for 2026. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?f=M&n=PET&s=MCRFPND1 - [2026-09-30] EIA monthly 2026 figures, in thousand barrels: Jan 34,940; Feb 31,471; Mar 34,898; Apr 34,052; May 34,714; Jun 34,769; Jul 35,886. Jan–Jul totals 240,730, an average of about 1,135 kb/d. To exceed 421,101, Aug–Dec must total more than 180,371, or about 1,179 kb/d over 153 days. That is above every 2026 month so far (best: Jun 1,158 kb/d, Jul about 1,158). https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?f=M&n=PET&s=MCRFPND1 - [2026-09-30] For comparison, the EIA 2025 monthly rates (kb/d) were Aug 1,175, Sep 1,172, Oct 1,179, Nov 1,199 and Dec 1,130. Only November 2025 exceeded 1,179 kb/d in the last five months of that year, and December dipped. This is the closest seasonal analogue for the required Aug–Dec 2026 average. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?f=M&n=PET&s=MCRFPND2 - [2026-09-21] State data (Director's Cut, September 2026) put July 2026 production at 35,855,862 bbl, or 1,156,640 bpd, up 1,846 bpd from June's revised 1,154,794. https://www.watfordcitynd.com/news/local/state-oil-patch-reaches-new-production-milestone-ahead-of-fall - [2026-09-21] The ND Department of Mineral Resources expects August to be stronger than July, and expects momentum to continue given drilling activity and robust crude prices. The rig count was 34 in both August and September. There were 9 frac crews and a record 20,072 producing wells in July. The state left its production forecast unchanged even though July beat it. https://boereport.com/2026/09/21/north-dakota-oil-output-seen-rising-in-august-state-regulator-says/ - [2026-09-21] The state's revenue forecast baseline is 1.15 million bpd (July 2025–June 2026 forecast volume). July 2026 was above it, but April (1,137,155 bpd) and May (1,125,012 bpd) were below it. A 1,154 kb/d annual average is roughly at that forecast level. The September 2026 report gave a forecast of 1.1 million bpd, which looks like a rounding of the 1.15 million figure. https://www.dmr.nd.gov/dmr/sites/default/files/documents/Directors_Cut/2026/Directors_Cut_2026-06-18.pdf - [2026-03-23] Regulators said that even with oil near $100 (Strait of Hormuz disruption), they did not expect activity to ramp up soon. Operators' 2026 budgets were already set, and any increase in drilling would take six months or more to show up in output. They expected no significant operator changes until 2027 at the earliest. https://northdakotamonitor.com/2026/03/23/oil-is-nearly-100-a-barrel-dont-expect-north-dakota-oil-activity-to-ramp-up-any-time-soon/ - [2026-07-22] Hart Energy reported that May 2026 state production fell 1.44% to 1.125 MMbbl/d, below the state's revenue forecast, despite strong prices. https://www.hartenergy.com/upstream/he-july-nd-directors-cut-2026/ - [2026-02-23] December 2025 production fell about 76,000 bpd on winter weather. The director expected operators to hold the rig count near 26 and output to stay steady in 2026. Q4/winter months carry weather-shut-in risk, and January 2026 saw storm shut-ins. https://energynow.ca/2026/02/north-dakota-operators-likely-to-increase-crude-output-steady-this-year-regulator-says/ - [2026-09-21] ND Pipeline Authority 2026 state totals in bpd: Jan 1,130,605; Feb 1,133,603; Mar 1,142,657; Apr 1,137,155; May 1,127,014; Jun 1,172,718 (preliminary, later revised to about 1,155k). The state's June figure was revised down, and the EIA June value of 1,158 kb/d is similar. Note that EIA and state numbers differ slightly and get revised. https://northdakotapipelines.com/us-williston-basin-oil-production/ - [2026-10-12] Reference class: annual ND output has fallen year over year in 2015–16, 2020–22 and 2025. A full-year average that moves 1.5% below the prior year is within the normal range, but 2026 would need H2 growth to beat the 2025-based threshold. The EIA STEO and the Pipeline Authority's formal 2026 annual forecast figures were not retrieved. BOTTOM LINE: The threshold needs Aug–Dec 2026 to average about 1,179 kb/d, versus a Jan–Jul 2026 average of about 1,135 kb/d and a best month of about 1,158 kb/d. That requires a sizeable H2 ramp, which regulators expect to be modest and which winter weather could cut into. On this evidence, "No" looks favoured unless August–October come in well above July. NOT FOUND: EIA STEO state or Bakken 2026 annual forecast for ND. August 2026 data, which is due October 20, 2026. The Pipeline Authority's 2026 annual production forecast. Any prediction-market prices (deliberately not searched).

YES means: EIA's published North Dakota field production of crude oil for calendar 2026 totals more than 421,101 thousand barrels. That is an average of about 1,154 kb/d. - [2026-10-12] I confirmed the EIA monthly series on the page itself (release 9/30/2026, next 10/30/2026). It has 2026 at Jan 1,127, Feb 1,124, Mar 1,126, Apr 1,135, May 1,120, Jun 1,159 and Jul 1,158. The 2025 history shows EIA's H2 pattern was Aug 1,175, Sep 1,172, Oct 1,179, Nov 1,199 and Dec 1,130. The 2023 H2 averaged about 1,268, against a H1 average near 1,133, so a step-up of this size has happened before. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?f=M&n=PET&s=MCRFPND2 - [2026-10-12] Rig activity has risen sharply since the summer. The state's active-rig list showed 33 on Oct 12 and 34 or more on several days in early October. The 2026 low was 19 on Apr 15 and the 2026 average is 27.8. The site also reports ten rigs went back to work from mid-July to August. Rigs run months ahead of output. https://dirtyhandsoil.com/nd-rig-count.html - [2026-09-21] The rig additions are mostly reactivated or relocated rigs, and operators are "moving on these wells quicker" to get them producing. Workover rigs are very active. That points to more completions reaching the August–October data, not just more drilling. https://boereport.com/2026/09/21/north-dakota-oil-output-seen-rising-in-august-state-regulator-says/ - [2026-09-21] July 2026 hit a record 20,072 producing wells and record gas volumes of 112.2 Bcf. Crude-by-rail held near 200,000 b/d, so there is no sign of a takeaway bottleneck on crude. https://www.watfordcitynd.com/news/local/state-oil-patch-reaches-new-production-milestone-ahead-of-fall - [2026-10-08] EIA's October STEO raised its 2026 U.S. crude forecast by 0.29% to 13.87 million b/d. EIA's September STEO had U.S. output rising from 13.88 million b/d in August to 13.96 million in September. Higher prices and the national upswing support a Bakken H2 ramp, though the STEO's North Dakota split was not retrieved. https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/10/08/short-term-energy-outlook-october-2026 - [2026-06 (approx.)] The state director said prices averaged about $95 during the Iran war and were still "historically strong" afterward. He cited rising permits, steady frac crews and steady-to-rising rigs. He expected no significant drop in production and a slight uptick in drilling. https://energynow.com/2026/06/north-dakotas-oil-output-expected-to-be-steady-despite-price-drop-state-regulator-says/ - [2026-10-12] The most likely YES path has four parts: 1. August through October average about 1,185–1,200 kb/d on EIA's series. The rig and frac additions, plus Kringstad's "stronger August" call, would have to show up in volumes. 2. EIA's monthly figures are revised upward or stay above the state's. In 2025 EIA's August figure was 1,175 against the state's 1,153. 3. November follows its 2025 pattern, when it reached 1,199. 4. December avoids a repeat of the 2025 dip to 1,130, which came with weather shut-ins. The required Aug–Dec average of about 1,179 kb/d is only slightly below EIA's 2025 Aug–Nov average of about 1,181. It is also roughly in line with the 2024 H2 average of about 1,204 and the 2023 H2 average of about 1,268. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?f=M&n=PET&s=MCRFPND2 - [2026-10-12] Scheduled data checkpoints are the state's August figures on Oct 20 and EIA's on Oct 30. If August comes in above roughly 1,180, the path is on track. The rig count has been at or above 30 since Sep 13 and was in the 30s through most of August. https://dirtyhandsoil.com/nd-rig-count.html BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case is a real H2 ramp: rigs up from a 19 low in April to 33–36, record producing wells, and prices well above 2025 levels. If those turn into EIA H2 volumes of around 1,180 kb/d or more, the annual total clears 421,101. That level is within EIA's own 2023–25 H2 range, but it needs August through November to come in near or above 2025's levels. NOT FOUND: August 2026 production (due Oct 20 state, Oct 30 EIA). An EIA STEO North Dakota or Bakken 2026 figure. October 2026 frac crew count. Any evidence of upward revisions to EIA's 2026 months.

YES means: EIA reports North Dakota's 2026 calendar-year field production of crude oil above 421,101 thousand barrels (about 1,154 thousand b/d on average). - [2026-10-12] Rig count has not kept rising. The state's active-rig list shows 33 on Oct 10–12, below 36 on Oct 6. Daily readings were 29–34 through late September. The 2026 average is 27.8, against 31.8 in 2025 and 37.9 in 2024. The 2026 low was 19 on Apr 15. Rigs are well above the spring trough but below the 2024–25 averages, and the count is flat to slightly lower versus early September. https://dirtyhandsoil.com/nd-rig-count.html - [2026-10-12] The late-summer rig jump came from small operators. Five operators with no rigs in July (Eben, Firebird, Iron Oil, Murex, Zavanna) each had one by August. Rigs were 26 in mid-July and 33 by Aug 20. Rigs from small or new operators tend to be added quickly and dropped quickly. https://www.inforum.com/news/north-dakota/north-dakota-oil-data-shows-uptick-in-production-jump-in-number-of-drilling-rigs - [2026-08-20] June's gain was about 2.5% month over month. The director said it came "maybe a month later" than he expected, so the price response is lagged. Rigs were only added in July–August. Wells drilled then reach production months later, which pushes much of the benefit into 2027. The March 23 regulator view of a six-month-plus lag fits this. https://www.inforum.com/news/north-dakota/north-dakota-oil-data-shows-uptick-in-production-jump-in-number-of-drilling-rigs - [2026-10-12] Rig timing arithmetic. Rigs only began rising from the ~23–26 level in July. Wells drilled from July onward would mostly come online around Q4, so the 2026 average captures only a small part of the uplift. Meanwhile the 2025 comparison year's Aug–Nov output was already high at about 1,172–1,199 kb/d. The Aug–Dec 2026 average has to match that, from a base rig count roughly 15% below 2025's. https://dirtyhandsoil.com/nd-rig-count.html - [2026-10-08] Prices are high, but the Bakken Wire snapshot shows operators adding rigs only incrementally (XTO added one). WTI was above $90 on Oct 8 on Iran tensions. Volatile, war-driven prices that EIA itself expects to fall in 2027 (WTI forecast $69.74 for 2027 versus $84.65 for 2026) argue against operators committing to a durable ramp. https://bakkenwire.com/ and https://www.xtb.com/int/market-analysis/news-and-research/eia-raises-oil-price-forecasts-what-did-the-steo-report-show - [2026-10-06] The October STEO raised 2026 U.S. crude production by only 0.29% to 13.87 million b/d. That is a national figure, driven by other regions. The EIA's earlier regional commentary (Dec 2025) put the Bakken among basins "maturing," with reduced drilling and limited top-tier locations. I could not read the Bakken line of the October STEO, which sits in charts. https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/10/08/short-term-energy-outlook-october-2026 and https://energi.media/news/eia-forecasts-slight-decline-in-u-s-crude-oil-production-in-2026/ - [2026-10-12] Resolution mechanics favour NO. The question resolves on EIA's published 2026 annual total. The threshold is fixed. The 2026 monthly values are already revised against the state's figures (June went from a preliminary 1,172,718 to ~1,155k), so revisions have recently run downward. The Aug 20 state figure (1,153k) became 1,154,794 later, and July's state figure was 1,156,640. Even the best months sit about 20 kb/d under the required 1,179 kb/d. Nothing in the criteria lets a rounding or revision technicality lift the total. https://www.inforum.com/news/north-dakota/north-dakota-oil-data-shows-uptick-in-production-jump-in-number-of-drilling-rigs - [2026-10-12] Required step-up in plain terms. Aug–Dec needs about a 2% rise over July's best month and must hold for five months. That means no weather shut-ins in Nov–Dec, although Dec 2025 fell about 76,000 b/d and Jan 2026 had storm shut-ins (per earlier reports). Even a 1,170 kb/d average for Aug–Dec, the state's likely best case, would fall short by about 1.4 million bbl, so the annual total would stay below the threshold. This is my arithmetic from the colleagues' figures. - [2026-10-12] Status quo is NO. Seven months are published and all sit below the required annual rate. The state kept its production forecast unchanged on Sept 21 even after beating it in July. An unchanged baseline of roughly 1,150–1,158 kb/d for the rest of 2026 gives a total of about 420–421 million bbl, just under the threshold. https://www.dmr.nd.gov/dmr/oilgas/directorscut BOTTOM LINE: With seven months averaging about 1,136 kb/d, the remaining months must average about 1,179 kb/d, a level not reached in 2026. Rigs added since July mostly affect 2027, the rig count has plateaued around 33 in October, and any flat-to-modest-growth path ends just below 421,101. NO is the default unless August and September come in far above July. NOT FOUND: August 2026 production (due Oct 20 state, Oct 30 EIA). The Bakken or North Dakota line in the October 2026 STEO. The exact EIA release date for December 2026 data. Any state or EIA 2026 annual forecast for North Dakota.