Will data center power-cost standards become law? — Yes

- [2026-09-16] The House passed H.R. 9340, the Ratepayer Protection Act, 417-3, under suspension of the rules. The bill amends PURPA §111(d). It covers data-center customers with at least 100 MW at one site or campus, and it requires state regulators and nonregulated utilities to *consider* the standard. The standard is recovery of full incremental generation, transmission and distribution upgrade costs, including after contract termination, plus financial assurances beforehand. It matches the Kalshi rule text. https://www.utilitydive.com/news/house-passes-ratepayer-protection-bill-data-centers/830658/ - [2026-09-17] Sen. Husted (R-OH) asked for unanimous consent to pass the House bill. Sen. Heinrich (D-NM) objected, saying it does not go far enough because it only requires states to consider the standard. Heinrich offered his own GRID Savings Act, and Sen. Moreno (R-OH) objected to that request. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senate-data-center-energy-bill-martin-heinrich/ - [2026-09-17] ClearView Energy Partners said the bill was unlikely to pass the Senate before the midterms but "could eventually become law". It noted that unanimous consent would be needed given the compressed schedule. https://www.utilitydive.com/news/house-passes-ratepayer-protection-bill-data-centers/830658/ - [2026-09-30] Senate cloture on the motion to proceed to H.R. 9340 failed 57-43, three votes short of the 60 needed. Thune had filed cloture. Husted's office says 43 Democrats voted no. https://rollcall.com/2026/09/30/voluntary-ratepayer-protection-bill-blocked-in-senate-again/ and https://www.husted.senate.gov/media/press-releases/democrats-block-husteds-bill-forcing-data-centers-to-pay-their-own-way/ - [2026-09-30] The White House issued a Statement of Administration Policy saying the President would sign the bill if it passed. This is per Husted's press release. https://www.husted.senate.gov/media/press-releases/democrats-block-husteds-bill-forcing-data-centers-to-pay-their-own-way/ - [2026-10-01] Democrats (Cortez Masto, Heinrich) call the bill voluntary and unenforceable. They prefer the stronger GRID Savings Act, which would have FERC set large-load cost-allocation and financial-security rules, or a Van Hollen bill. There is no sign of a deal. https://www.environmentenergyleader.com/stories/ratepayer-protection-act-falls-three-votes-short-in-senate,142202 and https://www.hoosierenquirer.com/post/house-passed-ratepayer-bill-417-3-senate-dems-still-blocked-it-three-votes-short - [2026-10-02] Senators left Washington after the vote. The House is out until after the Nov. 3 midterms. A newsletter says the Senate was the only chamber active before the election. It says permitting talks have pushed other energy priorities into a crowded lame-duck session. No further Ratepayer Protection Act vote was reported. https://weareinvariant.substack.com/p/invariants-energy-and-environment-a52 - [2026-10-11] An opinion piece says the bill is stuck unless at least seven Democrats allow consideration, and that the lame-duck session is "anticipated". https://www.dailyadvance.com/opinion/editorial_columnists/star-parker-democrats-obstruct-gop-cost-reduction-measures/article_e611dcca-4d84-5c94-a2ac-6826e4fd079.html - [2026-06 FERC] FERC did not issue a generic final rule. It issued six show-cause orders to the RTOs/ISOs on large-load interconnection and network-upgrade cost responsibility. It defined large loads as above 50 MW at 69 kV or higher. The RTOs had 60 days to respond. This is a regulatory action, not a law, so it probably does not meet the "bill became law" test. The rulemaking docket remains open. https://www.duanemorris.com/alerts/ferc_acts_advance_data_center_large_load_integration_six_rto_regions_0626.html and https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/ferc-orders-grid-operators-promptly-revise-or-justify-interconnection-rules-data - [2026-03-04 and 2026-07-23] The White House Ratepayer Protection Pledge is voluntary. It was expanded in July to 187 utilities, co-ops and developers, plus 23 governors. It is not law. https://www.powermag.com/white-house-expands-data-center-ratepayer-pledge-as-congress-moves-to-codify-protections/ - [2026 states] State laws and large-load tariffs are proliferating, for example Oklahoma's law with a 75 MW threshold. Only 13 states lack large-load tariffs. The rule's text requires a federal bill or an equivalent mandatory federal standard, and says "state adoption is not required". State laws therefore likely do not count. https://oklahoma.gov/occ/divisions/public-utility/energy/electric-utility/data-center-customer-ratepayer-protection-act.html - [Upcoming] The post-election lame-duck session (after Nov. 3) is the only realistic window before Jan. 1, 2027. Possible vehicles include an NDAA, an appropriations bill or an omnibus, or a standalone bill by unanimous consent or 60-vote cloture. No scheduled floor vote was found. https://www.dcaidecoded.com/p/october-5-this-week-in-ai-federal-policy BOTTOM LINE: The bill has passed the House (417-3) and has White House support. It is stalled in the Senate: unanimous consent was blocked on Sept. 17 and cloture failed 57-43 on Sept. 30. Democrats object that it is too weak, and Congress is out until after the Nov. 3 election. Enactment before Jan. 1 would require a lame-duck deal, either a standalone bill or a rider, and none has been reported. NOT FOUND: Any scheduled Senate vote or lame-duck plan for H.R. 9340. Any report of the provision being attached to the NDAA, appropriations or another vehicle. Any Democratic-GOP compromise text. The NBC page could not be fetched. Congress.gov's current status page was not checked directly.

- [2026-09-16] The House passed H.R. 9340, the Ratepayer Protection Act, 417–3, under suspension of the rules. The bill amends PURPA so state regulators and nonregulated utilities must consider a standard for data-center customers of 100 MW or more at one site or campus. The standard covers full incremental generation, transmission and distribution costs, including after contract termination, plus upfront financial assurances. It cleared Energy & Commerce 52–0 in July. This is the vehicle the question names. https://www.utilitydive.com/news/house-passes-ratepayer-protection-bill-data-centers/830658/ - [2026-09-17] Sen. Heinrich (D-NM) objected to Sen. Husted's unanimous-consent request. He said the bill is voluntary and "falls short". CNBC said this made it all but assured the bill would not clear Congress before the election. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/17/ai-data-center-utility-cost-senate.html - [2026-09-30] The Senate cloture vote on the motion to proceed failed 57–43, short of the 60 needed. Four Democrats voted yes: Hassan, Klobuchar, Ossoff and Warnock. This was the second Senate rejection. Schumer called the bill "a fraud" and a "toothless messaging bill". https://rollcall.com/2026/09/30/voluntary-ratepayer-protection-bill-blocked-in-senate-again/ and https://www.wtap.com/2026/09/30/ratepayer-protection-act-aims-keep-data-center-power-costs-off-ratepayers-bills/ - [2026-09-30] The Washington Examiner reported that Thune teed up the vote knowing it would fail. It described the vote as a campaign messaging exercise. Husted is vulnerable in Ohio against Sherrod Brown. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/senate/4747708/senate-thune-stock-trading-built-to-fail-data-centers-ratepayer-protection-act/ - [2026-09-17] Analyst view: ClearView Energy Partners said the bill is unlikely to pass the Senate before the midterms but "could eventually become law". It noted the bill is "somewhat behind the regulatory curve" because most states already have large-load tariffs. Only 13 states lacked any such tariff as of the SEPA database. https://www.utilitydive.com/news/house-passes-ratepayer-protection-bill-data-centers/830658/ - [2026-09-28 to 2026-10-07] The Hill (about 2026-09-28) reported that Sen. Whitehouse had negotiated outlines of a bipartisan permitting-reform deal. A Democratic aide said it would include Heinrich's GRID Savings Act, and Whitehouse said turning it into legislative text would take too long before the recess. A secondary source, FourWeekMBA, says the text was posted 2026-09-30 as the "Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026". Its Sec. 2107 would add Federal Power Act §228. That section would be a mandatory standard with a 20 MW threshold, full incremental cost recovery including after contract termination, and financial assurances. Sponsors are Capito, Lee, Whitehouse and Heinrich. I could not open the page (403), so this is unverified. https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/6112546-senate-data-center-battle-ohio-election/ and https://fourweekmba.com/ai-senate-deal-would-make-data-centers-pay-for-grid-upgrades/ - [2026-09-30] A 20 MW mandatory standard might count as "substantively equivalent", but its threshold differs from the 100 MW in the rules. A permitting deal is a large, contested vehicle. Its path to enactment before 2027-01-01 would need both chambers in the lame duck. https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/6112546-senate-data-center-battle-ohio-election/ - [2026-09-17] Schedule constraint: the House is out until mid-November and the Senate left after 9/30 for about five weeks. The midterms are on 2026-11-03, so any enactment would have to happen in the lame-duck session (mid-November to late December). https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/senate/4747708/senate-thune-stock-trading-built-to-fail-data-centers-ratepayer-protection-act/ and https://punchbowl.news/article/senate/husted-ratepayer-protection-act/ - [2026-03-04] The White House Ratepayer Protection Pledge is voluntary. It is not law and does not meet the market's bar. https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/03/ratepayer-protection-pledge/ - [2026-06-18] FERC issued show-cause orders to six RTOs on large-load interconnection rather than a final national rule. That is not a mandatory federal standard at the 100 MW cost-recovery level, and I found no FERC final rule that would count. https://www.duanemorris.com/alerts/ferc_acts_advance_data_center_large_load_integration_six_rto_regions_0626.html - Base rate: standalone bills that pass one chamber on a suspension vote in the final week before an election and then fail Senate cloture are rarely enacted in the following 10 weeks. Lame-duck enactments are mostly must-pass vehicles (appropriations, NDAA), and I found no reporting that this provision is attached to one. The Ratepayer Protection Act has 57 Senate votes, but the Democratic leadership opposes it as too weak. Democrats want a stronger mandatory version, and the GOP wants the weaker one. This is my judgment, not a sourced statistic. BOTTOM LINE: The reference class points to a low chance. The House passed the bill 417–3, but the Senate blocked it twice, the Democratic leadership opposes the voluntary version, and only about 10 weeks of mostly recess and lame duck remain. The main upside path is a stronger bipartisan permitting or energy package carrying a mandatory cost standard, such as the reported Sec. 2107, or a compromise attached to a must-pass bill. Neither is shown to be moving to enactment. NOT FOUND: Any prediction-market odds, expert probability estimates, or a track record for forecasters on this question. A verified, fetched copy of the permitting-bill text (Sec. 2107) or its legislative schedule. Any report of the provision being attached to the NDAA or an appropriations/omnibus bill. Any FERC final rule imposing a mandatory 100 MW cost standard. Historical comparison data on the passage rate of similar bills.

YES means: A bill becomes law between now and 2027-01-01 that sets the 100 MW+ data-center cost-recovery standard, by PURPA consideration or a substantively equivalent mandatory federal standard. The standard must include full incremental upgrade costs, recovery after contract termination, and financial assurances. - [2026-09-30] The strongest YES path is not H.R. 9340. It is the Capito-Lee-Whitehouse-Heinrich "Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act of 2026". It was introduced as a 400+ page permitting package with a Division B §2107 titled "Ratepayer protection". The Senate committee press release says it "forces data centers" to pay all associated transmission costs. Heinrich says it "puts teeth behind" the principle. Because it is mandatory, it answers the Democratic "voluntary" objection to H.R. 9340. https://www.epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2026/9/capito-lee-whitehouse-and-heinrich-introduce-bipartisan-american-affordability-and-jobs-act-of-2026 - [2026-09-30] The bill's table of contents lists "Sec. 2107. Ratepayer protection" and "Sec. 2114. Collection of data on computational load entities". I fetched the PDF, but the middle of the text was truncated, so I could not read §2107's threshold or terms. Whether it meets the 100 MW, post-termination and financial-assurance elements is therefore unverified. A different report claims a 20 MW threshold (see the colleague report). A lower threshold may still count as "substantively equivalent", but that is a judgment call. https://www.epw.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/5/c/5c5f5935-b224-48e7-abea-e60c30e7a4cf/7935BF3C85967B6F56F6F4858FD3221B7E0AEB02D04BE391CAFBD1B884CE3DC5.bipartisan-american-affordability-and-jobs-act-text.pdf - [2026-09-30] The deal has the chairs and ranking members of both Senate committees with permitting jurisdiction. That is two Republicans and two Democrats. Capito says the plan is to make it the first Senate vote after the election. Whitehouse says the White House agreed to the vote schedule. Capito said the group struck the agreement the night before. Heinrich is the same senator who blocked H.R. 9340 on 9/17, so the principal Democratic objector now co-owns a mandatory version. https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/6120853-permitting-reform-bipartisan-deal-infrastructure-energy-projects/ (snippet only; page returned 403) - [2026-09-30] CNBC reports the bill is expected to be a top Senate priority in the lame duck. Sen. Coons said permitting and government funding will be the first priorities when senators return. This puts the vehicle alongside the must-pass funding fight. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/permitting-deal-congress-election.html - [2026-09-30] The White House issued a statement of support for the package, saying it would deliver policies to lower energy and housing costs. It also pushed to get elements of its ratepayer pledge into the text. Trump's backing removes the usual veto-threat risk, and the administration pressed for a deal. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/senate-reaches-bipartisan-deal-on-permitting-bill-to-speed-approvals-of-new-energy-projects and https://mgrid.org/2026/09/30/senate-permitting-deal-data-centers-full-transmission-costs/ - [2026-10-09] Mother Jones reports that Sen. Lee said he sees nothing in the bill that either party would change after the election. Mother Jones also says lame-duck sessions have produced major compromises, and the package may fall in the last session of unified GOP control. Heinrich called it the first act of Congress to protect consumers from data center costs. https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/10/senate-permitting-reform-environmental-groups-divided/ - [2026-09-30] Beyond the permitting package, H.R. 9340 has strong support. The House vote was 417-3, and the Senate vote was 57-43 with four Democrats voting yes. Its Senate sponsors include Husted, Hoeven and Tuberville. Even Democratic House challengers call the Senate block a mistake. A post-election compromise would only need 3 more Democratic votes. Husted's election-driven pressure disappears after Nov 3. https://rollcall.com/2026/09/30/voluntary-ratepayer-protection-bill-blocked-in-senate-again/ and https://sanangelolive.com/news/politics/2026-10-06/pfluger-reynolds-spar-over-oil-data-centers-and-radical-left-midland-debate - [2026-09-18] GovTrack shows H.R. 9340 as "Received in the Senate" on 9/17 with no further action. The page assigns a 30% enactment prognosis. Because it is a House-passed bill, any Senate passage without amendment would send it straight to the President. That makes it a possible rider or UC candidate. https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/119/hr9340 and https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/9340/all-info - [2026-09-30] Stifel's Brian Gardner said Democrats want to deny Republicans a political win before the midterms. This implies the 9/30 block was timing-driven. After Nov 3, the data-center cost principle has near-unanimous public and member support, and a mandatory version is already agreed to by both parties' energy leaders. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/senate-fails-to-advance-data-center-and-lawmaker-stock-trading-bills-before-campaign-break-181734520.html BOTTOM LINE: The best YES path is the bipartisan permitting package, which carries a mandatory §2107 "Ratepayer protection" provision. It is backed by both committee leaderships and the White House, and it is slated to go first on the Senate's post-election floor. It would need 60 Senate votes, House passage and signature by Dec 31, and §2107 would have to match the 100 MW standard. A fallback is H.R. 9340 passing by UC or as a rider once the election pressure is gone. NOT FOUND: The readable text of §2107 (threshold, post-termination recovery, financial assurances), since the PDF was truncated and a secondary source's 20 MW claim stayed unverified. House leadership's lame-duck plans for the permitting bill. Any whip count of Senate Democrats on it. Any NDAA or appropriations attachment of either vehicle. Any confirmation that The Hill's piece says what the snippet shows, because the page returned 403.

YES means: a bill establishing a data-center power-cost standard (100 MW or more at one site or campus, full incremental cost recovery including after contract termination, plus financial assurances) is signed into law between now and 2027-01-01. - [2026-10-09] The Holland & Knight year-end alert says the Dec. 11 funding deadline is the "principal forcing mechanism" for the lame duck. It lists the NDAA, WRDA, farm bill, permitting reform, surface transportation, healthcare extenders and a possible tax package as competing items. It names three likely year-end shapes: an omnibus or minibuses, a short CR into Jan–Mar 2027, or a hybrid. It does not mention the Ratepayer Protection Act (H.R. 9340) as a vehicle. The House has passed only 3 of 12 FY27 appropriations bills, and the Senate has passed none. Appropriators therefore have little room for riders. https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2026/10/beyond-the-midterms-congress-faces-converging-year-end-deadlines - [2026-10-09] The Hill says the Senate is scheduled for only 8 session days in November and 14 in December. It returns the week of Nov. 9. Wicker wants the NDAA and an emergency defense supplemental as top priorities. Johnson wants a marathon budget-resolution vote-a-rama for a third reconciliation bill. Some Republicans also want three Congressional Review Act votes. Floor time is the binding constraint on a standalone ratepayer bill. https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/6121941-senate-adjourns-midterm-campaigns/ - [2026-09-30] The permitting deal (Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act, BAAJA) is the only live vehicle with a mandatory data-center cost provision. Its Capito/Whitehouse/Lee/Heinrich negotiators call the text a "framework" and say "votes will be later". It is a 400+ page package. https://wvmetronews.com/2026/09/30/capito-and-colleagues-praise-bipartisan-permitting-reform-deal-look-ahead-to-a-vote/ and https://www.capito.senate.gov/news/in-the-news/monumental-senate-permitting-deal-would-expedite-projects - [2026-10-09] Mother Jones reports that the BAAJA coalition is already splitting. Some environmental groups say it weakens state and tribal authority and helps pipelines. Lobbyist Chris Moyer warns of the "familiar cycle", in which the party about to gain power holds out for a better bill. Rep. Huffman (top House Natural Resources Democrat) pledged to seek a better bill in the next Congress. The 2022 and 2024 permitting attempts both died, and the lame duck is the last chance before a possible shift in House control. https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2026/10/senate-permitting-reform-environmental-groups-divided/ - [2026-10-09] Whether BAAJA's data-center section would satisfy the rule's literal terms is unverified. The reports above describe a 20 MW threshold, not 100 MW. The rule asks for a standard at 100 MW or more. A resolver could rule that a 20 MW standard is not "substantively equivalent". It is also unconfirmed that the final text keeps the section through floor amendments and a House deal. I found no fetched primary text. - [2026-09-30] A Senate bill needs 60 votes. The Ratepayer Protection Act failed at 57 with only 4 Democrats in favor. Schumer called it "a fraud" and wants the Van Hollen and Heinrich bills instead (NBC). Each side prefers its own version, and both versions would need to be reconciled with the House. The House passed the voluntary version 417-3, and its leadership has not been reported to have accepted a stronger standard. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-democrats-block-sen-husted-led-bill-data-centers-calling-toothl-rcna600269 - [2026-09-30] Stifel's Brian Gardner says Democrats want to deny Republicans a pre-midterm political win. That motive may fade after Nov. 3. The same note frames the vote as messaging, and Washington Examiner reporting (colleagues' report) says Thune knew it would fail. If it was messaging, GOP leaders may not spend lame-duck floor time on it. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/senate-fails-to-advance-data-center-and-lawmaker-stock-trading-bills-before-campaign-break-181734520.html - [2026-09-17] Whitehouse and the White House were already trading threats on permitting. A White House official said Democrats "refused to take yes for an answer" and that the concessions would not be frozen until the lame duck. That implies the administration's support for BAAJA is not assured. A separate Whitehouse remark said the lame duck could still work. https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/6110095-whitehouse-sees-permitting-reform-progress/ - [2026-09-24] Capito called the lame duck "so unpredictable in terms of what you can really accomplish". Westerman, who chairs House Natural Resources, said "we're running out of time". The House has its own SPEED Act version. A conference or ping-pong between the chambers must fit into about 14 December session days. https://dailycaller.com/2026/09/24/bruce-westerman-speed-act-permitting-reform-senate-lame-duck-pete-stauber-shelley-moore-capito-sheldon-whitehouse/ - [2026-10-03] A D2D newsletter says the Senate left until Nov. 9 with the NDAA, twelve appropriations bills and a lapsed surveillance law unfinished. There are 8 November days and 14 December days booked, including Fridays. The Dec. 11 deadline plus the Thanksgiving break leaves roughly 5 weeks for must-pass items. https://dome2domemediallc.substack.com/p/3-oct-2026-d2d-hnfy-my-resolution - [2026-10-06] NEFI says Congress returns Nov. 9 and "most of it has to be resolved by December 11". Appropriations are complicated by the Sept. 25 pocket rescissions, which Collins criticized. The farm bill extension lapsed Sept. 30 and still needs 60 Senate votes. A shutdown-prone December crowds out standalone energy bills. https://nefi.com/news-publications/recent-news/this-week-in-congress---october-6-2026 - [2026-10-12] Status quo inertia: nothing has been enacted. The question's text says the PURPA "consider" mechanism qualifies, so the House bill alone would suffice if it passed the Senate. Even so, the Senate path needs either unanimous consent (blocked 9/17) or 60 votes (failed 9/30). Neither has any announced redo. No source I found reports a lame-duck vote scheduled on H.R. 9340. BOTTOM LINE: Enactment needs a lame-duck breakthrough on a crowded calendar of about 22 Senate session days, with the House out until Nov. 9. The two routes are a Democratic reversal on H.R. 9340 and a BAAJA deal that survives House Democrats, environmental groups and a possible shift in House control, and the BAAJA route carries an additional 20 MW-versus-100 MW "equivalence" risk. Both routes have a history of failing: the 2022 and 2024 permitting attempts died, and the Ratepayer Protection Act failed 57-43. NOT FOUND: Any scheduled lame-duck vote on H.R. 9340 or BAAJA. A fetched copy of the BAAJA data-center section or its threshold. Any report of a ratepayer provision attached to the NDAA or an appropriations bill. Any statement from House leadership on accepting BAAJA. Congress.gov's current status page was not checked.