Will privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in Vermont in 2026 be above 1,600 units?

- [2026-09-24] The Census state monthly series for Vermont (via FRED VTBPPRIV, all structure types, not seasonally adjusted) shows these 2026 monthly totals. Jan 197, Feb 77, Mar 109, Apr 134, May 125, Jun 179, Jul 138, Aug 146. My sum of Jan–Aug is **1,105 units**. Aug 2026 is the latest month published. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/VTBPPRIV.txt - [2026-09-17 data release] The Census Bureau August 2026 state file (st2608c) shows Vermont for August alone at 146 units. That is 124 one-unit, 12 in two-unit, 0 in 3–4-unit and 10 in 5+-unit buildings, which matches FRED's 146. https://www2.census.gov/econ/bps/State/st2608c.txt - [2026-10-12] To finish above 1,600, Vermont needs at least 496 units across Sep–Dec 2026, about 124 a month. In the prior three years the monthly series gave these Sep–Dec sums. 2025: 1,126 (including a one-month spike of 666 in Sep 2025). 2024: 863. 2023: 712. Source: FRED series, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/VTBPPRIV.txt - [2026-10-12] 2026 is running below 2025. Jan–Aug 2025 summed to 1,322 from the same series, against 1,105 in 2026, which is about 16% lower. Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/VTBPPRIV.txt - [2026-05-14 release] The Census Bureau's final 2025 annual figure for Vermont is 2,294 units, per Vermont's housing department and the Vermont Housing Finance Agency. The 12 monthly figures for 2025 sum to about 2,448, so the monthly series and the final annual figure differ. The annual release has revised monthly totals before. https://legislature.vermont.gov/Documents/2026/Workgroups/House%20Environment/Reports%20and%20Resources/W~Department%20of%20Housing%20and%20Community%20Development~2026%20Housing%20Targets%20Report~5-21-2026.pdf and https://vhfa.org/news/blog/housing-data - [2025-11 / 2026-05] The most recent annual totals I found are 2,761 for 2024 and 2,654 as a 2020–24 figure in a state presentation. 2025 was a slight dip from 2024. The 1,600 line is well below recent annual levels. https://legislature.vermont.gov/Documents/2026/Workgroups/House%20General/Housing/Housing%20Development%20and%20Project%20Updates/Housing%20Demand%20and%20Supply/W~Ted%20Barnett~Vermont's%20Housing%20Market%20and%20Demographics%20Trends~5-14-2026.pdf - [2026-09-17] The national August 2026 permit rate was 1,394,000 SAAR. That is 2.7% below July and 3.5% above August 2025. Nationally, 2026 is not collapsing. https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf - [2026-10-20 scheduled] The next monthly release (September 2026 data) is due Oct 20, 2026. Revised state-level permits follow on Oct 27, then Nov 25 (Oct data) and Dec 23 (Nov data). https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/schedule.html - [2026-04-29] Census delayed the February and March 2026 releases to April 29, 2026. Earlier 2026 releases ran late, but the schedule has since caught up. https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/announcements.html - [2027-05 expected] The final annual 2026 figure should come in the spring 2027 annual release. The 2025 annual release was May 14, 2026, and 2024's was May 1, 2025. The 2026 release may land close to or after the May 3, 2027 market close, and I did not find a 2027 date. Annual figures can differ from the sum of the monthly figures. https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/schedule.html and https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/announcements.html - [2026-05-21] Vermont's housing department says its own dashboard counts and the Census permit counts typically differ by 300–400 units. For 2025 the dashboard showed 1,598 against Census's 2,294. The dashboard does not decide this market. https://legislature.vermont.gov/Documents/2026/Workgroups/House%20Environment/Reports%20and%20Resources/W~Department%20of%20Housing%20and%20Community%20Development~2026%20Housing%20Targets%20Report~5-21-2026.pdf BOTTOM LINE: Through August 2026, Vermont has 1,105 permitted units on the monthly series. It needs about 496 more in Sep–Dec to pass 1,600, which is roughly 124 a month and in line with typical Sep–Dec totals of 700–1,100 in recent years. The risks are a year running about 16% behind 2025 and a final annual figure that can differ from the monthly sum. NOT FOUND: Sep 2026 Vermont data, which is not yet released. A confirmed 2027 annual-release date. Any Vermont-specific 2026 forecast or news.

- [2026-05-19] Census annual Vermont permits were 2,403 (2022), 2,456 (2023), 2,654 (2024) and 2,294 (2025). The 2025 figure is "a slight dip" from 2024. Vermont's housing department says the state averages about 2,300 units a year. https://legislature.vermont.gov/Documents/2026/Workgroups/House%20Environment/Reports%20and%20Resources/W~Department%20of%20Housing%20and%20Community%20Development~2026%20Housing%20Targets%20Report~5-21-2026.pdf - [2026-05-19] The state's new Housing Development Dashboard counted 1,598 new units for 2025, against 3,057 for 2024. The state calls it unofficial. It is a different measure from Census permits, which typically run 300 to 400 units away from it. The dashboard figure is not the resolution source. Same URL as above. - [2026-09-24] FRED monthly NSA Vermont permits (VTBPPRIV) for 2026 are Jan 197, Feb 77, Mar 109, Apr 134, May 125, Jun 179, Jul 138 and Aug 146. That sums to about 1,105 for Jan–Aug. These are preliminary monthly figures. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/VTBPPRIV.txt - [2026-09-24] The same series for Jan–Aug 2025 sums to about 1,322, so 2026 year-to-date is roughly 16% lower. Sep–Dec 2025 sums to about 1,126, driven by a one-month spike of 666 in Sep 2025. Same URL as above. - [2026-09-24] The monthly series differs from the annual figure. The 2025 monthly values sum to about 2,448, against the annual 2,294. The 2024 monthly values sum to about 2,625, against the annual 2,654. The annual figure includes imputation and revisions, and the gap runs roughly -150 to +30. Same URL as above. - [2026-09-24] Arithmetic from the monthly data: to exceed 1,600 on the monthly-sum basis, Sep–Dec 2026 needs about 495 or more. Sep–Dec totals were about 1,126 in 2025 and about 863 in 2024. Typical monthly values in 2026 have been 77 to 197, so four ordinary months would give roughly 500 to 650. Each of the four years 2022 to 2025 was well above 1,600 on an annual basis. Same URL as above. - [Pre-2026] Historical lows are far below 1,600. The monthly record low is 17 (Feb 2009), and 2009–2012 annual totals were roughly 1,000 to 1,500, on my reading of the monthly data. Since about 2013, annual totals have mostly been at or above about 1,600 to 1,800 (not verified year by year). 2023 single-family permits were the lowest since 2012. https://outside.vermont.gov/agency/ACCD/ACCD_Web_Docs/Housing/Housing-Needs-Assessment/2025-2029/2025-Factsheet-5-Owners.pdf - [2026-10-12] Reporting is patchy. About 50 Vermont municipalities did not report permits last year. Census imputes their numbers, which adds noise and revision risk to the annual total. https://www.healthcareindustrytoday.com/article/928818527-2025-census-building-permit-data-released-the-cost-of-not-reporting-data - [2026-09] National permits are firm. August 2026 was 1,394,000 SAAR, 3.5% above August 2025. Northeast July permits were up 20.8% year over year. Vermont is running below its own prior year despite that. https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/current/index.html - [2026-10-12] Timing risk. The Census annual state figure for 2026 normally comes out in spring 2027, and Vermont's 2025 data were reported around May 2026. Trading closes 2027-05-03. If the first finalized annual figure isn't out by then, resolution depends on the exchange's rules. I did not confirm the 2027 release date. BOTTOM LINE: The outside view favours Yes. Annual Census totals have been about 2,300 to 2,650 for four years, and 1,600 is below every recent annual figure. The caveat is that 2026 year-to-date is weak, at about 1,105 for Jan–Aug and about 16% below 2025. A Yes needs only about 500 more units in Sep–Dec on the monthly basis, which is modest. Lumpy multifamily months, imputation and the annual-versus-monthly gap add noise, and the release date may fall after the close. NOT FOUND: the Census release date for 2026 annual state permits; any published forecast or expert estimate for Vermont's 2026 permit total; the exact annual Census totals for 2013–2021, which I did not fetch.

YES means: Census's first finalized annual 2026 figure for Vermont, across all structure types, is 1,601 units or more. - [2026-10-12] Past Sep–Dec totals on the FRED monthly series, computed from the file I fetched. 2017: 578. 2018: 717. 2019: 385. 2020: 589. 2021: 744. 2022: 551. 2023: 712. 2024: 863. 2025: 1,126. Eight of those nine years cleared the roughly 496 units Vermont needs in Sep–Dec 2026. The exception is 2019, at 385. Only 2019 would have missed, and 2019's Jan–Aug pace was also low. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/VTBPPRIV.txt - [2026-10-12] The Sep–Dec threshold is also modest against 2026's own run rate. Jan–Aug 2026 averaged about 138 units a month, and 4 × 138 ≈ 553, which would reach about 1,658. The Oct–Dec months in 2022 to 2025 ranged from 71 to 428. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/VTBPPRIV.txt - [2026-10-12] The final annual figure has often exceeded the monthly-series sum. 2022: monthly sum 1,992 against annual 2,403, a gap of +411. 2023: 2,246 against 2,456, +210. 2024: 2,625 against 2,654, +29. 2025 was the exception, at 2,448 against 2,294, −154. The monthly sums are my arithmetic from the FRED file. The annual figures are the colleagues' cited Census numbers. The annual benchmarking, which includes imputation for non-reporting towns, therefore tends to lift the total. If that held in 2026, Jan–Aug of 1,105 would need less than 500 more units on the monthly basis. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/VTBPPRIV.txt - [2026-09-20] Local lenders report housing activity ahead of 2025. EastRise Credit Union said mortgage activity and home-construction lending are running ahead of last year, and described a market "healthier and more active than it was in 2025". This conflicts with the weaker 2026 permit counts. It is anecdotal, not Census data. https://vermontbiz.com/news/2026/september/20/real-estate-getting-something-breather-despite-everything - [2026-09-20] The same article says the 311-unit North Tower of Burlington Square (CityPlace) is under construction, and developers closed the extra financing needed to complete it. Multifamily lumpiness is the main upside path. The Sep 2025 spike of 666 and Dec 2024's 428 show that a single large project permitted in one month can add 200 or more units. https://vermontbiz.com/news/2026/september/20/real-estate-getting-something-breather-despite-everything - [2026-06-03] Burlington's South End (SECORD) project has a signed development agreement for its first 204 units, at about $100M. The City Council approved it in May, and state housing funders committed money. Permits for phase 1 could land in late 2026. The timing is not confirmed in the source. https://vtdigger.org/2026/06/03/hundreds-of-housing-units-in-the-works-at-closely-watched-project-in-burlingtons-south-end/ - [2026-02-02] The state treasurer's 10% in Vermont program announced $30M in 2026 investments supporting about 450 homes, with $8M going to SECORD. That is public money that pushes affordable multifamily toward permitting. https://www.wcax.com/2026/02/02/state-leaders-announce-30m-housing-development-projects/ - [2026-10-12] Regulation. The Act 250 Tier 1A and 1B exemptions took effect on Jan 1, 2026. Tiers 2 and 3, and the Road Rule, take effect Dec 31, 2026. Builders may therefore pull rural and single-family permits before year-end to avoid new Act 250 review. That is my inference from the rule dates, not a reported trend. https://act250.vermont.gov/src/interim-act-250-housing-exemptions and https://vtdigger.org/2026/02/12/norm-etkind-act-250-expansion-risks-rural-housing/ - [2026-08-08] A new wetland-buffer rule took effect Aug 8, 2026. It sets a 25-foot buffer in designated growth areas, which should ease housing permitting from the fall onward. https://vermontbiz.com/news/2026/september/20/real-estate-getting-something-breather-despite-everything - [2026-09-17] Nationally, permits were 1.394M SAAR in August, 3.5% above August 2025. The year-ago base for Vermont's Sep–Dec is not an obstacle. Vermont does not need to beat 2025, only reach about 1,600, which is far below the 2,294 annual 2025 figure. https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf - [2026-10-12] Census says annual 2025 data were released on May 14, 2026. The 2022 data came on May 1, 2023, per the Census announcements page. A release after the May 3, 2027 close would not make the result No. The contract's rules say only the first finalized annual figure counts. https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/schedule.html and https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/annual-building-permits.html BOTTOM LINE: The most likely path to Yes is an ordinary Sep–Dec of about 500 to 600 units, which has happened in most years since 2017. The annual benchmarking, which has often added 200 to 400 units to the monthly sum, would add further margin. A lumpy multifamily permit month, or a rush ahead of the Dec 31 Act 250 changes, could push the total higher still. NOT FOUND: Sep 2026 Vermont permit data, which comes out Oct 20. The Census release date for the 2026 annual figures. Any Vermont-specific forecast of the 2026 permit total. A source confirming the timing of the SECORD or Burlington Square permits.

YES means: Census's first finalized annual 2026 figure for Vermont, all structure types, is strictly above 1,600 units. - [2026-10-12] My Sep–Dec ratios from the FRED monthly series put the Jan–Aug 2026 total (1,105, per the colleague reports) close to the threshold. Sep–Dec made up 26% of the year in 2019, 32% in 2020, 36% in 2021, 28% in 2022, 32% in 2023 and 33% in 2024. 2025 was 46%, but only because of a one-off 666 in Sep 2025. At the typical 28–33% share, 1,105 scales to a full year of about 1,550–1,730, so the line sits inside the range rather than far below it. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/VTBPPRIV.txt - [2026-10-12] The Sep–Dec 2025 total of 1,126 depends on that spike. Without the 666, the remaining three months were 460 (229 + 123 + 108), below the 496 needed. In 2019 and 2022, Sep–Dec totals were 385 and 551, and 2019 would have missed the bar. Ordinary autumn months have been weaker than the 2024–25 totals suggest. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/VTBPPRIV.txt - [2026-10-12] The 2026 monthly run is soft, and the colleague reports do not reflect this. Jun–Aug averaged about 154 a month. The four months from May through Aug (125, 179, 138, 146) averaged about 147, which gives about 590 for Sep–Dec and 1,695 on the monthly basis. That is only about 6% above 1,600, and the seasonal decline in Nov–Dec is not reflected in that average. Nov and Dec have been below 140 in most years since 2019. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/VTBPPRIV.txt - [2026-10-12] Single-family permits are weak. Jan–Apr 2026 one-unit permits were 92, 70, 77 and 112, from the FRED one-unit series last updated 2026-06-01. Multifamily lumpiness is the only route to a large autumn, and a large 2025-style spike would need to repeat. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VTBP1FH - [2026-10-12] The annual figure benchmarks the monthly data and has recently come in lower. Census says monthly estimates are benchmarked to final annual estimates, that the state monthly (NSA) figures are not revised, and that annual data are final once released. Revisions can therefore only show up in the annual number, which for 2025 was about 150 below the monthly sum (colleague reports). A comparable 6% haircut would apply to any monthly-basis total near 1,700. https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/about.html - [2026-10-12] Timing technicality: Census says final annual data come out on the first working day of May. May 3, 2027 is the first working day of May 2027, and it is also the trading close. The 2025 release slipped to May 14, 2026 (confirmed on Census). If 2027 slips similarly, there is no finalized figure at close. That would push resolution to the exchange's fallback, which I could not find. This creates NO or non-Yes risk, because "first finalized annual figure" cannot be met before the figure exists. https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/stateannual.html and https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/index.html - [2026-10-12] There is a regulatory headwind late in the year. Under Act 181, Tier 2 and Tier 3 Act 250 jurisdiction takes effect on Dec 31, 2026. The new road rule took effect Jul 1, 2026, per Act 250 materials and a VTDigger op-ed. The Senate voted in March 2026 to push Tier 3 back to 2028, but I did not confirm that it passed the House. Uncertainty can discourage rural single-family starts and permits. It could also pull permits forward into Q4 2026, which would favour Yes. https://act250.vermont.gov/src/interim-act-250-housing-exemptions and https://vnews.com/2026/03/30/vermont-senate-delays-act-181/ - [2026-10-12] State officials describe the housing market in weak terms. The Vermont housing department's May 2026 targets report says its dashboard shows a dip in production in 2025. A Vermont Futures Project dashboard ranks Vermont 46th of 51 on housing permits. Neither source forecasts 2026. https://legislature.vermont.gov/Documents/2026/Workgroups/House%20Environment/Reports%20and%20Resources/W~Department%20of%20Housing%20and%20Community%20Development~2026%20Housing%20Targets%20Report~5-21-2026.pdf and https://citizenportal.ai/articles/7287074/Vermont/Legislative/Committees/SENATE/Economic-Development/Housing-and-General-Affairs/New-competitiveness-dashboard-shows-population-decline-weak-housing-permit-activity-in-Vermont - [2026-10-12] National Aug 2026 permits were 1,394,000 SAAR, down from the July figure and below the 1,443,000 initially reported for July. That is a mildly cooling national trend. The Census nationwide release does not include state detail. The next data point, September, is due Oct 20, 2026. https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/newresconst.pdf BOTTOM LINE: The No case rests on a thin cushion: seasonal scaling of Jan–Aug gives roughly 1,550–1,730, and the 2025 benchmark cut and the lack of another large multifamily month would each cost about 100–150 units. A late-2027 Census annual release would also leave no finalized figure at the close. NOT FOUND: Sep 2026 Vermont data (due Oct 20). The 2027 annual release date. The exchange's fallback rule if the annual figure is unpublished at close. Whether the House passed S.325. Any 2026 Vermont forecast. Annual Census totals for 2013–2021, which I did not fetch.