Will any Republican member of Congress calls on Trump to be removed as President through the 25th amendment before Jan 1, 2027?

- [2026-04-07] Marjorie Taylor Greene posted "25TH AMENDMENT!!!" after Trump's "whole civilization will die" Iran post. The Hill, CNN and others describe her as a *former* Georgia congresswoman, so she was not a sitting member and likely would not count. https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5819417-greene-25th-amendment-trump-iran-threat/ - [2026-04-07 to 04-09] CNN, the Washington Times and NBC/AP found no sitting Republican member of Congress among the April callers. The callers were Democrats (more than 50 House Democrats called for removal via the 25th Amendment or impeachment), plus ex-Republicans and commentators such as Greene, Kinzinger, Walsh, Alex Jones and Candace Owens. The NBC/AP summary mentions "even some Republicans" without naming sitting members. https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/07/politics/25th-amendment-trump-iran-war and https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/national-international/what-is-the-25th-amendment-remove-trump-from-office/4088501/ - [2026-04-10] Rep. Jamie Raskin said no Republican had called for impeachment or shown interest in it. This is about impeachment, not the 25th Amendment, but it shows GOP caucus attitudes. https://time.com/article/2026/04/10/rep-jamie-raskin-explains-prospects-of-impeaching-trump-25th-amendment/ - [2026-04-09] The WBEZ report says Vance and the Cabinet had expressed no support for removal. https://www.wbez.org/politics/2026/04/07/jb-pritzker-donald-trump-iran-war-power-plants-bridges-threat-25th-amendment - [2026-10-06] At a rally in Grand Island, Nebraska, Trump said Iran could "take out" Los Angeles and San Diego as a "small price to pay" for the war. The White House said the remark was misread. https://time.com/article/2026/10/07/newsom-trump-iran-take-out-los-angeles-san-diego-25th-amendment/ - [2026-10-06/07] Gov. Newsom called for the 25th Amendment ("TIME FOR THE 25TH!"), and Sen. Padilla joined him. These are Democrats. TIME reports that more than 40 California Democratic members of Congress demanded an apology. https://www.lawcommentary.com/articles/newsom-25th-amendment-trump-california-remarks - [2026-10-07] The Republican criticism I found was mild and none of it was a 25th Amendment call. House candidate Jim Desmond (not a sitting member) disagreed with the remark. Rep. Kevin Kiley, a former Republican now running as an independent, called the rhetoric "unhelpful." Rep. Darrell Issa praised Trump's war. https://time.com/article/2026/10/07/newsom-trump-iran-take-out-los-angeles-san-diego-25th-amendment/ and https://www.sfchronicle.com/politics/article/donald-trump-los-angeles-san-diego-22465012.php - [2026-10-07] Fox News ran a sidebar headline about House Democrats unveiling a bill to examine removing Trump via the 25th Amendment. The bill is Democratic. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/newsom-calls-trumps-removal-25th-amendment-white-house-hits-back - [2026-10-01 to 10-07] Context: Trump's TIME interview prompted commentary on his mental state. The US-Iran war began in February 2026, and Trump says it will end after the midterms. Midterms are in November. https://time.com/article/2026/10/07/newsom-trump-iran-take-out-los-angeles-san-diego-25th-amendment/ - [2026-09 (approx.)] A Daily Beast/Yahoo story reports calls for the 25th Amendment after Trump's AI-generated Truth Social posts. The callers named were X accounts and Democratic-aligned commentators, not sitting Republican members. https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/calls-grow-invoke-25th-amendment-131349470.html - [2026-04 (approx.)] Newsweek reported that a Kalshi market on whether the 25th Amendment will be used during Trump's presidency rose to about 35%. That is a sibling market and the figure is stale. https://www.newsweek.com/trumps-chances-of-being-removed-by-25th-amendment-climb-11785658 - [Historical] Kinzinger was the first GOP member to call for 25th Amendment removal, in January 2021, so there is precedent for a sitting Republican doing so. https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/adam-kinzinger-gop-congressman-trump-25th-amendment BOTTOM LINE: As of 2026-10-12 I found no sitting Republican member of Congress who has called for 25th Amendment removal, even at the April peak and after the October 6 remark. Only ex-members such as Greene, who would likely not count, and Democrats have done so. Tail risk comes from further Iran-war escalation or gaffes, and from lame-duck/post-midterm dynamics. Retiring or defeated members, or dissidents such as Massie, are the most plausible sources. NOT FOUND: Any sitting GOP member (Massie, Bacon, Kiley, Tillis, Murkowski, etc.) calling for 25th Amendment removal in 2026. Any scheduled event that would trigger such a call before 2027-01-01. The resolution rules' fuller text. I did not search for the live Kalshi price, as instructed.

- [2026-04-07] Marjorie Taylor Greene called for the 25th Amendment after Trump's Iran post. She resigned her House seat early, so The Hill, CNN and Fox all describe her as a "former" Republican congresswoman. She therefore likely would not count as a "Republican member of Congress". https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5819417-greene-25th-amendment-trump-iran-threat/ - [2026-04-07] Seven conservatives called for removal in that same wave. They were Greene, Candace Owens, Alex Jones and Scaramucci, plus former Reps. Joe Walsh and Adam Kinzinger. Every Republican named is a former lawmaker or a commentator, not a sitting member. https://thekenyatimes.com/americas/7-republicans-call-for-trumps-immediate-removal-from-office/ - [2026-04-09] AP/NBC reported that more than 70 lawmakers, including a handful of senators, called for the 25th Amendment. The only named Republicans were Greene (former) and conservative figures outside Congress. The headline says "even some Republicans", but the body names no sitting Republican member. The article also calls removal very unlikely: 12 of 23 Cabinet members including Vance would have to agree. https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/national-international/what-is-the-25th-amendment-remove-trump-from-office/4088501/ - [2026-04-10] Raskin said no Republican had called for impeachment or indicated interest. That was said in April, at the peak of the Iran backlash. https://time.com/article/2026/04/10/rep-jamie-raskin-explains-prospects-of-impeaching-trump-25th-amendment/ - [2026-04-07] CNN said no Cabinet officials appeared to be considering the step and Vance did not seem on board. https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/07/politics/25th-amendment-trump-iran-war - [2026-10-06/07] Newsom renewed his 25th Amendment call after Trump's comments that Iran could "take out" Los Angeles. Sen. Padilla (D) joined him. The Fox and Law Commentary pieces name no Republican members joining, and Vance and the Cabinet had taken no public step. https://www.lawcommentary.com/articles/newsom-25th-amendment-trump-california-remarks - [2021-01-07] Historical precedent: Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R) called for the 25th Amendment one day after Jan. 6. That is a rare sitting-Republican case in Trump's first term, set off by a single extreme event. https://news.yahoo.com/republican-congressman-calls-trumps-ouster-161109389.html - [2021-01] Reported later: Reps. Newhouse and Herrera Beutler floated the 25th Amendment or resignation in a private GOP conference call. Reporting is from a book, and the remarks were private, not public calls. https://news.yahoo.com/gop-lawmaker-wanted-25th-amendment-161319479.html - [2026-04] Kalshi's separate market "Will the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's presidency?" rose from 28.6% to 35.1% in April. It had started at 15% in January 2025. That market is a different contract and the figures are stale. https://www.newsweek.com/trumps-chances-of-being-removed-by-25th-amendment-climb-11785658 - [2026-10-03] Covers.com, quoting a Kalshi "Trump out" market, gave about 3.8% for his exit before 2027 and about 20% before 2028. It says a Republican Congress makes impeachment unlikely. This is a different event from the one in question. https://www.covers.com/politics/donald-trump-out-as-president-predictions-market - [2026-04 to 2026-10] Reference-class pattern: the 25th Amendment gets called for frequently, but almost entirely by Democrats, ex-Republicans and media figures. In Trump's second term I found no confirmed case, after the April peak, of a sitting GOP member of Congress calling for it. The April spike, with a threat of mass civilian deaths and a war, did not produce one either. Window still open: Oct 12 to Dec 31, 2026, which includes the Nov 3 midterms. BOTTOM LINE: The outside view is that the event is rare. Even Trump's most extreme moment, the April Iran "civilization will die" post, drew 25th Amendment calls only from non-sitting Republicans. The one clear sitting-Republican precedent is Kinzinger after Jan. 6, 2021, so YES would likely need a new shock, an outlier member, or a lame-duck or retiring member after the midterms. Ambiguity over what counts as a "call" and who counts as a "member" adds some tail risk, because a loose reading could treat a former member such as Greene as qualifying. NOT FOUND: any confirmed sitting Republican senator or representative explicitly calling for the 25th Amendment in 2025–2026. I also found no polls or expert estimates on this specific contract, and no sibling Kalshi contract for this exact question.

YES means: at least one sitting Republican member of the House or Senate publicly calls for Trump's removal as President through the 25th Amendment between now and Dec 31, 2026. - [2026-04-07] Even Trump's most extreme moment of the term did not produce a sitting GOP caller. CNN's fuller text shows the strongest sitting-GOP reaction was Sen. Ron Johnson (a loyal ally). He said Trump "loses me" if he attacks civilian targets. That is a red line on conduct, not a 25th Amendment call. It does show that sitting Republicans will set conditions, and a condition breached could convert into a call. https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/07/politics/25th-amendment-trump-iran-war - [2026-04-07] CNN's analysis argues the shift is real: in the first term the 25th was "almost universally" a Democratic topic. Now former allies (Greene, Carlson-style critics) call for it publicly. This is a mechanism for YES: the taboo has already broken outside Congress, and the next step is a member who has nothing left to lose. https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/07/politics/25th-amendment-trump-iran-war - [2026-04 (Common Cause compilation)] Sen. Chris Murphy said he "agree[s] with Republicans who have put the 25th Amendment on the table". This points to some Republican voices, but the quote does not name a sitting member, and the page returned 403 so I could not verify it. It is a lead for a loose-resolution path. https://www.commoncause.org/articles/the-bipartisan-call-to-use-the-25th-amendment/ - [2026-04-07] Rep. Pat Harrigan (R-NC) was asked on Forbes about the calls and answered "That's Too Far". This is a rejection, but it shows GOP members are being asked about the 25th on camera. Any one of them answering "yes" or "maybe" is a YES event, and every repeated Trump shock creates fresh chances. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vav4oxNAvtk - [2026-10-07] The calls are recurring and escalating in frequency: Jan 2026 (Greenland letter, Markey), April (Iran), July 16 (election-fraud speech, Newsom and Ansari) and Oct 6 (Los Angeles/San Diego remark, Newsom). That is roughly one major wave every 2–3 months, and it will probably happen again before Dec 31. https://newrepublic.com/post/213193/trump-election-fraud-speech-25th-amendment and https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/u-senator-comes-says-trump-071149615.html - [2026-09-28] Sen. Capito (R-WV) publicly urged Trump to end the Iran war, at its seven-month mark. This is mild, but it shows Senate Republicans are now openly criticizing the war's course. That is the setting in which a retiring or defeated member might go further. https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/6116123-senator-calls-end-iran-conflict/ - [2026-10-09] NPR describes a potential "blue wave" threatening toss-up Republicans such as Lawler. Fox (Oct 7) carried a segment of a commentator suggesting the Cabinet could act after midterm losses. If the midterms go badly, post-election lame-duck Republicans (retired, defeated, or freed from primaries) face lower costs for breaking ranks. This is the most plausible time window for a YES: Nov 4 to Dec 31. https://npr.org/2026/10/09/nx-s1-5986150/lawler-new-york-congress-trump and https://www.foxnews.com/politics/newsom-calls-trumps-removal-25th-amendment-white-house-hits-back - [2026-10-07] The Oct 6 remark drew criticism from Republican-aligned figures in California. Kiley (a former Republican, now independent, still a sitting House member) called the rhetoric "unhelpful", and a House candidate disagreed. A Republican who changes party or runs as an independent, such as Kiley, could be counted by a lenient resolver as a "Republican member". He is a lead, though he has not called for the 25th. https://time.com/article/2026/10/07/newsom-trump-iran-take-out-los-angeles-san-diego-25th-amendment/ - [Precedent] Kinzinger became the first sitting GOP member to call for the 25th, on Jan 7, 2021, one day after the Capitol attack. It was a single-day reaction to an acute event, not a gradual build-up. This shows the YES path needs only one member and one trigger, not caucus-wide movement. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/adam-kinzinger-gop-congressman-trump-25th-amendment/ - [2026-04-07] Greene's "25TH AMENDMENT!!!" was posted after she had left the House. A resolver reading "Republican member of Congress" loosely (headline wording such as "Republican calls for 25th") could count a former member. That is a weak, non-literal path, and Greene or similar former members could repeat the call in the window. https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5819417-greene-25th-amendment-trump-iran-threat/ Single most likely path: a lame-duck or retiring Republican, or an outlier such as Massie or Kiley, calls for the 25th after a new acute shock. Candidate shocks are an Iran escalation against civilian targets (Johnson's stated red line), a nuclear-use hint, or a health event. The timing most likely falls after the Nov 3 midterms. Prerequisites: a trigger worse than the Oct 6 remark, and a member insulated from primaries. BOTTOM LINE: The Yes case rests on a taboo that has already broken outside Congress, on repeated shocks every 2–3 months, and on post-midterm freedom for lame-duck members. It still needs a first sitting-Republican caller, and none has appeared even at the April peak. NOT FOUND: Any sitting Republican member of Congress who has explicitly called for 25th Amendment removal in 2026. I could not open the Common Cause page (403), so Murphy's "Republicans who have put the 25th on the table" is unverified. I did not see Harrigan's actual answer beyond the video title. I found no Kiley, Massie or Bacon statement on the 25th Amendment.

YES means: at least one sitting Republican member of the US House or Senate publicly calls for Trump to be removed via the 25th Amendment between now and 2026-12-31. - [2026-10-07] Newsweek's list of 25th Amendment callers from the Oct 5–7 episode names only Democrats: Newsom, Padilla, Murphy, Markey, Khanna, Stansbury, Larson, Kamlager-Dove and Ansari. It also names The View's Sunny Hostin, who is not a lawmaker. No Republican member appears. The Iran war and its costs are hurting Republicans before the midterms, and the story says only that "some Republicans" have distanced themselves from the war. Distancing from the war has not turned into removal calls. https://www.newsweek.com/25th-amendment-donald-trump-gavin-newsom-california-iran-12536821 - [2026-10-07] The Hill's report on the "take out Los Angeles" remark names no sitting Republican member criticising it. The Republican voices are a GOP strategist and a House candidate. Kiley, a former Republican now independent, called the rhetoric "unhelpful". Newsom, a Democrat, is the one who raised the 25th. In an Oct 7 Fox report, Republicans responded to a Newsom call by accusing Democrats of a Biden-era double standard. That is the opposite of GOP members joining in. https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/6132137-newsom-calls-trump-mentally-ill/ - [2026-10-07] Procedure is a further barrier, and it works against the call. Section 4 can only start with Vance and a majority of the Cabinet. Congress acts only after Trump contests the declaration, and then needs two-thirds of both chambers. A Republican member has little to gain from a call that cannot start in Congress and would be read as a loyalty break. Section 4 has never been used against a president. https://www.lawcommentary.com/articles/newsom-25th-amendment-trump-california-remarks - [2026-04-07] Trump's April "whole civilization will die" post was the peak provocation, and Democrats were the ones calling for removal. Over 70 lawmakers, a handful of them senators, called for the 25th Amendment or impeachment, and the NBC report names only Democrats. After a worse trigger than the one in October, no Republican member was among them. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/democrats-trump-removal-iran-threats-impeachment-25th-amendment-rcna267194 - [2026-04-07] Sen. Murphy said he agreed with "Republicans who have put the 25th Amendment on the table". That could be read as implying Republican support. The Common Cause page quoting it returned 403, and I could not read the page to see whom he meant. The reporting I did read names only Greene (a former member), Kinzinger, Walsh, Owens and Scaramucci. If any sitting member existed, CNN, NBC and Raskin's account would likely have said so. Treat the Murphy line as unverified. https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/07/politics/25th-amendment-trump-iran-war - [2026-07-16] Another trigger passed with only Democrats calling. After Trump's July 16 prime-time election-fraud speech, Newsom and Rep. Ansari said it was a 25th Amendment moment. Neither the New Republic report nor anything I found shows a Republican doing so. Trump's second term has had four or more flashpoints with the same pattern: Jan 2026 Greenland, Apr Iran, Jul election speech and Oct LA/San Diego. Each was followed by Democrats-only calls, so this is a repeated pattern rather than one miss. https://newrepublic.com/post/213193/trump-election-fraud-speech-25th-amendment - [2026-01-20] In the Jan 2026 Greenland episode, the lawmakers calling for the 25th were Markey, Swalwell, Kamlager-Dove and Ansari. All are Democrats. The outside Republican voices were Walsh, a former member, and anonymous accounts. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/u-senator-comes-says-trump-071149615.html - [2021-01-07] The only confirmed sitting-Republican precedent, Kinzinger, came after a physical assault on the Capitol and in a lame-duck period. He was the first Republican member to call, and Fox reported that same day that he could not name others who would go public. Even that peak event produced one public Republican call at first. Nothing comparable (violence at the Capitol, a refusal to transfer power) is scheduled before Jan 1. Kinzinger is no longer in Congress. https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/adam-kinzinger-gop-congressman-trump-25th-amendment - [2026-04-10] Raskin said that, at the April peak, no Republican had called for impeachment or shown interest in it. That is evidence about the Republican caucus as a whole, and it was before the Oct 5–7 remarks. https://time.com/article/2026/04/10/rep-jamie-raskin-explains-prospects-of-impeaching-trump-25th-amendment/ - [2026-10-07] Resolution technicalities favour NO. The rule says "Republican member of Congress", which Greene (former), Kiley (now independent, ex-Republican), Kinzinger and Walsh do not meet. A call also needs to be for 25th Amendment removal specifically. Impeachment calls, "unfit" comments and "unhelpful" criticism do not count. Newsweek's list and the TIME piece both treat Kiley as a former Republican. https://time.com/article/2026/10/07/newsom-trump-iran-take-out-los-angeles-san-diego-25th-amendment/ - [2026-10-12] Deadline arithmetic: about 80 days remain, and 150+ days of this window have already passed with the Iran war ongoing. Trump has said the war will end after the midterms, so the war-escalation trigger is stated to fade after Nov 3. The Hostin theory that the Cabinet could act after midterm losses is a media-commentary claim. I found no reporting that any Cabinet member or Republican member is planning it. https://www.foxnews.com/politics/newsom-calls-trumps-removal-25th-amendment-white-house-hits-back BOTTOM LINE: In every 2026 flashpoint I could find (Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct), the 25th Amendment callers were Democrats, ex-Republicans or commentators, never a sitting Republican member. With 80 days left, no known scheduled trigger and strict "sitting Republican member" wording, status quo points to NO. The main residual risk is a new shock or a retiring or defeated outlier after Nov 3. NOT FOUND: Any sitting Republican member calling for 25th Amendment removal in 2025–26. The identity of the "Republicans" Murphy referred to in April, because the Common Cause page returned 403. The Kalshi rules' fuller text. Any scheduled trigger event before 2027-01-01.