Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jul 1, 2027?

The current Fed Chair is Kevin Warsh, Trump's own pick. I found no sign that Trump has tried to fire him. The firing attempts so far were aimed at Powell (threats only) and at Governor Lisa Cook. - [2026-05-22] Warsh was sworn in as the 17th Fed Chair at a White House ceremony. Trump said "I want Kevin to be totally independent" . https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-live-kevin-warsh-sworn-in-as-chairman-of-the-federal-reserve - [2026-05-13] The Senate confirmed Warsh 54-45. The vote came after the DOJ dropped its criminal probe of Powell, which had been Tillis's condition for letting the nomination advance. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/senate-confirms-trump-pick-warsh-as-chairman-of-the-federal-reserve-following-powell - [2026-04-15] Trump told Fox Business that if Powell stayed on the board past May 15, "then I'll have to fire him." This was a conditional threat, and no firing followed. Powell's chair term ended May 15 and he stayed on as a governor. His governor term runs to January 2028. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/jerome-powell-fire-fed-chair-criminal-doj-probe-rcna331944 - [2026-09-16] The Fed raised rates 0.25 points, its first hike since 2023. Warsh said "inflation is too high and has been for too long." Further hikes are possible before year-end. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-meeting-today-live-updates.html - [2026-10-06] A Motley Fool/Yahoo piece describes Trump taking a "subtle jab" at Warsh over the September hike. It is commentary, and I did not see Trump's actual words. Its framing is that Trump expected Warsh to lower rates. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/president-donald-trump-just-threw-082601836.html - [2026-10-09] CNN has a clip headlined "Trump lashes out after Fed raises rates, signals more to come". I could not retrieve the details, including who he targeted. https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/09/economy/white-house-investigation-fed-lisa-cook - [2026-10-09] The White House formed a three-member committee to investigate Cook over mortgage statements. The members are Labor Secretary Sonderling, NEC Director Hassett and EEOC Chair Lucas. An in-person hearing is set for 2026-11-05. This targets a governor, not the Chair. https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/09/economy/white-house-investigation-fed-lisa-cook - [2026-06-29] The Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that Trump could not remove Cook for now. Roberts' majority opinion said she was entitled to notice and a chance to respond. The court carved out the Fed from its Slaughter ruling, which overturned Humphrey's Executor. Fox Business reports it said the Fed stands on a different constitutional footing from other independent agencies. https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/supreme-court-rules-trumps-attempt-fire-fed-governor-lisa-cook - [2026-08-27] Trump's administration sent Cook a letter saying it was "considering" her removal. https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/08/trump-informs-lisa-cook-that-he-is-considering-her-removal/ - [2026-03] Trump said he would "most likely" not fire Powell, adding "I would remove him in a heartbeat" but that it would disturb the markets. This shows his earlier restraint. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-claims-most-likely-not-152339792.html BOTTOM LINE: As of 2026-10-12 there is no sign that Trump has tried to fire Warsh. Warsh is Trump's own appointee, and Trump's grievance is the September hike, which so far has produced only criticism, which the rules say does not count. The Cook process, with its 11-05 hearing, shows Trump pursuing removal of governors through a formal route. A removal attempt against Powell, who is still a governor, is a separate matter from firing the Chair and I found no sign of one. If Trump turned on Warsh, the Supreme Court's for-cause framework for the Fed would shape how. NOT FOUND: Trump's exact words about Warsh after the September hike. I found no Trump statement about firing Warsh, and no scheduled event before 2027-07-01 directly about the Chair's removal. FOMC dates after the September meeting were not checked.

The Chair is now Kevin Warsh, Trump's own pick, not Powell. The Powell-era threats are therefore the main precedent, and the Cook process is a second one. Neither is a Chair firing. - [2026-10-09] The White House set up a three-member committee to review whether Trump has cause to remove Governor Lisa Cook. It scheduled a hearing for Nov 5. This targets a governor, not the Chair, and follows the process the Supreme Court required. https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/10/9/trump-launches-probe-into-federal-reserve-governor-lisa-cook - [2026-10-06] Warsh was sworn in on May 22, 2026. The FOMC began a rate-hiking cycle in September, the opposite of what Trump wanted. Trump took a "subtle jab" at Warsh and the FOMC. This is criticism only, not a firing threat. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/president-donald-trump-just-threw-082601836.html - [2026-10-09] The Fed raised rates 25bp to 3.75–4% in September, the first hike in three years. Inflation and oil prices are rising amid the Iran conflict. This is the pressure that could turn Trump against his own Chair. https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/10/9/trump-launches-probe-into-federal-reserve-governor-lisa-cook - [2026-09-16] Kalshi priced about 44% that Trump would publicly insult Warsh by year-end. The article called that thin-book noise. Insulting him is not firing, which the rules exclude. https://predictionnews.com/story/kalshi-market-prices-trump-statement-on-warsh-interest-rate-decision - [2026-06-29] In Trump v. Cook the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 that Fed governors have for-cause protection. Removal requires notice and a hearing, and courts can review whether the stated cause is valid. Jones Day says the Court carved out the Fed from its broader ruling for at-will removal at other independent agencies. This raises the legal cost of any attempt to fire the Chair. https://www.jonesday.com/en/insights/2026/07/scotus-except-for-federal-reserve-board-forcause-removal-provisions-governing-independent-agencies-are-unconstitutional - [2026-04-15] Trump told Fox Business he would "have to fire" Powell if he stayed past the end of his chair term. This was a conditional threat. Powell then left the chair on May 15 and no firing followed. Over roughly 16 months of attacks on Powell, Trump never formally tried to fire him as Chair. https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/15/economy/powell-trump-fire-fed-chair - [2026-04-15] Kalshi's "Trump try to fire Powell as Chair or Governor" market priced 38% by year-end and 16% before May, right after the threat. Powell was then not fired. https://news.kalshi.com/p/trump-fires-powell-odds-spike - [2026-01-14] The same Kalshi market opened Jan 12 at around 53–57% for "before 2027", with about $15k traded. It was thin and highly volatile. The 2025–26 history suggests these markets overpriced the chance of an actual attempt. https://defirate.com/news/trump-doj-threatens-fed-chair-powell-but-markets-forecast-stability/ - [2025-08-25] The only formal Trump removal attempt against a Fed official so far was Cook. He notified her of removal. Courts blocked it and the Supreme Court left it blocked. https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/LSB11449.html - [2026-05-13] The Senate confirmed Warsh 54-45, the narrowest margin since 1977. His chair term runs to May 21, 2030. Warsh promised independent judgment. https://www.npr.org/2026/05/13/nx-s1-5816235/kevin-warsh-federal-reserve-chair-jerome-powell - [2025-07-16] Polymarket's "Trump fires Powell" market peaked around 21–24% in 2025. It resolved No. Wall Street's view then was that an actual attempt was unlikely because of legal limits and market risk. https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/16/investing/markets-trump-powell-fed - [Base rate] No US president has ever formally fired a Fed Chair. Trump threatened to fire Powell repeatedly but never did. Those threats were mostly conditional or "should" statements, and the rules exclude both. BOTTOM LINE: The reference class gives a low base rate. Trump has talked about firing a Chair for over a year without a formal attempt, and the Chair is now his own appointee. The Supreme Court's Cook ruling adds legal friction, though Trump's pattern of escalating against Fed officials (the Cook committee) and rate-hike friction with Warsh leave a tail risk. Markets overpriced the Powell version of this event. NOT FOUND: Current live odds on this exact contract (deliberately not sought). Any report of Trump threatening to fire Warsh. Any expert estimate for a Warsh firing. Full text of the Oct 6 Motley Fool piece, which was truncated.

YES means: Before 2027-07-01, Trump takes a qualifying step to remove Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Qualifying steps are a signed termination document, a directive to an official to fire him, a public statement that he has fired or decided to fire him, a White House announcement, a written notice of termination, or formal removal proceedings. Mere criticism does not count. - [2026-09-16] Trump's Truth Social post after the hike was, per Reuters, his "most pointed — though still indirect" criticism yet of his own chair. Trump called the FOMC "very hostile" and "very political". He still said he had confidence in Warsh. CNN also reports Trump "talked to Kevin" beforehand. Yahoo's correspondent called whether Trump turns on Warsh the "million dollar question", saying patience with the Fed is being tested. https://wtvbam.com/2026/09/16/trump-says-us-interest-rates-should-be-1-or-lower/ - [2026-10-01] Trump told Time he "probably would have voted against the board" if he were Warsh, and that he wants Warsh to "vote the way he wants." He said he does not blame Warsh. This shows the grievance is moving toward Warsh's conduct but is still framed as the board's fault. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-01/trump-says-warsh-should-have-voted-against-fed-s-rate-hike - [2026-10-09] CNN reports Trump is mounting a fresh effort to oust Cook. The committee is made up of his own appointees, and CNN reports it is built to cure the process defect the Supreme Court found. Former Fed official Tim Mahedy says the outcome "is clear". This is a template: a for-cause process for a Fed official, which could be reused against a Chair. Prerequisite: Trump must be willing to apply it to Warsh. https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/09/economy/white-house-investigation-fed-lisa-cook - [2026-10-09] Politico, via Raw Story, says the Cook push puts Warsh on the hook to defend Fed independence against the president who installed him. This is a possible trigger for a break. Warsh has to take a public stance in a fight Trump started. https://www.rawstory.com/kevin-warsh-lisa-cook/ - [2026-09-16] The FOMC dot plot has policymakers expecting at least one more hike by year-end, with only two seeing rates stable. Next meetings: 2026-10-28 and 2026-12-09. Each hike is a fresh trigger before the midterms. https://www.brecorder.com/news/40439918/trump-lashes-out-at-fed-after-warsh-backs-rate-hike - [2026-10-07] The Fed's calendar shows the next meeting is 27–28 Oct. The September hike was a unanimous 12–0 vote including Warsh, so Trump cannot easily say the chair was outvoted. The Fed lists 28 Apr, 9 Jun and 28 Jul 2027 among the 2027 meetings. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm - [2026-09-17] CNN analysis says Trump's account of the hike risks portraying Warsh as ineffectual. It also notes summer suspicions that Warsh was not independent. A Chair who is both overruled and defiant gives Trump a motive to replace him. https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/17/economy/fed-trump-rate-hike-warsh - [2026-02-04] Trump said Warsh would not have got the job had he wanted to raise rates. Warsh has now raised rates, which contradicts that stated condition. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-kevin-warsh-fed-raise-interest-rates-rcna257458 **Most likely path to YES:** The Fed keeps hiking at the October and December meetings amid Iran-driven inflation. Trump's tone moves from blaming "the board" to blaming Warsh. After the midterms, he announces he is removing Warsh, or directs Hassett or another official to start a for-cause process like Cook's. The prerequisites are: - Persistent hikes. - Trump giving up his "confidence in Warsh" line. - A decision that the Supreme Court's for-cause framework and the market reaction are tolerable costs. Trump's habit of announcing decisions publicly means a bare statement that he "has decided to fire" Warsh would count. BOTTOM LINE: Trump's tone toward Warsh is hardening but still indirect. The Cook committee shows he will build formal removal machinery for Fed officials. A YES needs a clear break with his own appointee within about 8.5 months, with more hikes as the trigger. NOT FOUND: Any Trump statement threatening to fire Warsh, or any report of White House planning to remove him. Trump's exact CNN-clip words on 2026-10-09 (the clip is dated 2026-09-16 and shows him defending Warsh). Any 2026-10 post-hike update.

YES means: Trump formally tries to fire Fed Chair Kevin Warsh before 2027-07-01. That means a signed termination document, a directive to terminate, a public statement that he has fired or decided to fire him, a White House announcement, a written termination notice, or formal removal proceedings. Criticism, "should resign" statements, and pressure to resign do not count. - [2026-10-01] Trump told Time he does not blame Warsh for the September hike, though he "probably would have voted against the board." He said he wants Warsh to "vote the way he wants." The blame is placed on the board, not the Chair. Source (fetched): https://news.bloomberglaw.com/banking-law/trump-says-warsh-should-have-voted-against-feds-rate-hike - [2026-09-16] Trump said he still has confidence in Warsh and called the board "hostile." He said he had told Warsh to vote with the board because it "is not going to matter." That makes Warsh a co-victim, not a target. Because the vote was a unanimous 12–0, no dissent by Warsh could have changed it. Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/trump-fed-interest-rate-warsh.html - [2026-10-09] CNN says Trump "has spared" Warsh and blames a "political" board. His escalation went to Cook, with a committee set up on 10-09. This redirects the anger away from the Chair. Per Reuters via Spokesman-Review, the committee reports after a Nov 10 post-hearing deadline. The Chair-firing question is therefore pushed past November even if it were live. Sources: https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2026/oct/09/trump-renews-bid-to-fire-feds-cook-with-fresh-whit and https://edition.cnn.com/2026/10/09/economy/white-house-investigation-fed-lisa-cook - [2026-10-09] Evercore's Krishna Guha reads Trump as believing Warsh is "boxed in" by a hostile board. A president who thinks that has a reason to keep Warsh and replace the governors, not fire the Chair. Source: https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2026/oct/09/trump-renews-bid-to-fire-feds-cook-with-fresh-whit - [2026-09-13] Hassett said Trump "will defend the independence of Kevin Warsh above all." PBS also noted Warsh's father-in-law, Ronald Lauder, is a Trump friend and donor. Both are personal buffers. Source: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/watch-live-warsh-holds-briefing-after-fed-meeting-as-interest-rates-expected-to-rise - [2026-09-16] PBS says analysts doubt a further hike at the Oct 27–28 FOMC, days before the midterms. That would remove the next flashpoint. The only other 2026 meeting is Dec 8–9. The 2027 Jan 26–27 meeting follows, and the window then has only a few more meetings before Jul 1, 2027. Sources: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/watch-live-warsh-holds-briefing-after-fed-meeting-as-interest-rates-expected-to-rise and https://www.yxinsights.com/p/fomc-meeting-schedule - [2026-10-09] The Cook committee shows the legal route. Under the Supreme Court's June ruling, removal needs notice, a hearing and a stated cause (Brookings says Cook's case is "difficult" to win absent new facts). Warsh has no alleged misconduct. The Fed IG's Oct 1 report on the Powell-era renovation found no criminal or administrative misconduct, per TechTimes. That leaves no for-cause hook against the Chair. Sources: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/fed-independence-after-trump-v-cook/ and https://www.techtimes.com/articles/328399/20261001/federal-reserve-ig-clears-powell-forced-removal-now-blocked-supreme-court.htm - [2026-10-09] Resolution technicality: the question is about the Chair. A Cook removal, or a Powell removal as governor, would not count. Trump's own committee on Cook, set up on 10-09, is aimed at a governor. Rules also exclude "looking into" statements and unsent letters. Sources: https://cnbc.com/2026/10/09/fed-lisa-cook-trump.html and the question rules. - [2026-10-09] Trump's 16 months of attacks on Powell never produced a formal Chair firing. Even Cook, the one attempted removal, took a formal letter and an eventual court loss. This precedent tends toward threats and process, not firing the Chair. Source: https://news.nbcnews.com/business/economy/trump-federal-reserve-chair-rcna256631 (NBC: Trump is the first president to try to fire a governor). Not fetched. - [2026-10-01] Trump has a reason not to disturb markets: inflation, oil and the Iran conflict are already pushing yields, and Evercore says even the Cook probe will be "counterproductive" for the rates Trump wants. Firing his own Chair would worsen that. Source: https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2026/oct/09/trump-renews-bid-to-fire-feds-cook-with-fresh-whit BOTTOM LINE: Trump has stayed publicly on Warsh's side through the September hike, through 10-01 and through the 10-09 Cook move. He blames the board, and firing a Chair he picked five months ago has no for-cause basis and would cost him with markets. The "unsent letters" and "should resign" carve-outs shrink the YES route to a literal, formal act, which is not currently signalled. NOT FOUND: Any Trump statement threatening or considering firing Warsh. Trump's Oct 9–12 statements (CNN video details). The full text of the Time interview. A page showing more than one hike expected in Oct or Dec.