How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)? — Above 50

- [2026-09-15] The Senate failed cloture on the motion to proceed to H.R. 3633 (CLARITY Act). The crypto.news summary of the Senate roll call is 49 for, 50 against, 1 not voting, short of the 60 needed. This was a procedural vote, not a vote on passage. https://crypto.news/the-clarity-act-stalled-cryptos-election-money-faces-a-senate-test/ - [2026-09-15] Source conflict on the tally: CNBC reported "50 votes for and 49 against". Most others (crypto.news, American Banker, Datawallet) report 49-50 failing. Either way the count is on a cloture motion, and it is unclear whether Kalshi counts that as a "vote on a crypto market structure bill". The KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE rules page was not retrieved. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/15/senate-cloture-vote-on-clarity-act-fails-dealing-regulatory-setback-to-crypto-industry.html - [2026-09-15] No Democrat voted yes. Republican nays were Hawley, Collins, Moran and Tillis, per American Banker. The Democratic negotiators (Gillibrand, Warner, Booker, Warnock, Gallego, Alsobrooks, Cortez Masto) all voted no, per Datawallet. Ethics provisions on Trump family crypto profits were the main cause. https://www.americanbanker.com/news/crypto-market-structure-bill-fails-in-senate-vote-49-50 - [2026-09-15] Sen. Lummis said "it's over" if the procedural vote failed. CNBC said the industry expects to wait until next year. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/15/senate-cloture-vote-on-clarity-act-fails-dealing-regulatory-setback-to-crypto-industry.html - [2026-09-15] Tillis entered a motion to reconsider the failed cloture vote. This leaves a procedural route to revisit it, but a leader would have to bring it back and win more votes. https://crypto.news/the-clarity-act-stalled-cryptos-election-money-faces-a-senate-test/ - [2026-09-17] Seven Democratic senators who worked on the text called the result "a setback, but not the end" and recommitted to a bipartisan deal. The Senate work period runs Oct 5 to Nov 6. FinTech Weekly says a lame-duck session after the election is the most plausible window, and that prediction markets then priced 2026 passage in the single digits. https://www.fintechweekly.com/news/clarity-act-cloture-vote-fails-49-50-september-2026 - [2026-10-05/06] A secondary site reports CFTC Chair Selig issued an ANPRM (Regulation CTX and CAM) and that SEC Chair Atkins is pursuing custody rules, so agencies are acting without legislation. It also says Lummis warned that the next realistic window could be years away, and that Polymarket odds of the bill becoming law this year halved. This is unverified secondary reporting. https://homecryptoinvest.com/articles/clarity-act-update-2026.html - [2026-10-08] No new Senate floor action found. The focus has shifted to the Nov 3 midterms; Fairshake is backing 32 House incumbents and spending against Sherrod Brown. https://crypto.news/the-clarity-act-stalled-cryptos-election-money-faces-a-senate-test/ - [2026-10-?] Orrick (published about Oct 2) describes the bill as stalled, with its ultimate fate uncertain and attention moving to SEC/CFTC rulemaking. https://www.orrick.com/en/Insights/2026/10/The-CLARITY-Act-Stalls-in-the-Senate-Whats-Next-for-Digital-Asset-Regulation - [2026-06-01] Background: the bill was reported out of Senate Banking 15-9 on May 14, then placed on the calendar as No. 423. The House passed it 294-134 on 2025-07-17. The Senate Ag committee advanced its own text 12-11 on 2026-01-29. Roll Call noted at least seven Democratic votes were needed for the 60-vote threshold. https://www.lw.com/en/us-crypto-policy-tracker/legislative-developments - [2026-08-06] CoinDesk reported it was unclear the bill even had 50 votes, with several Republicans publicly opposed. https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/08/06/senate-won-t-vote-on-crypto-clarity-act-before-its-summer-break BOTTOM LINE: The only Senate floor vote so far was the Sept 15 failed cloture vote on the motion to proceed, which got 49 or 50 yeas depending on the source. That is at most borderline for "above 50", and it may not count as a bill vote at all. A further vote before Jan 1 would need a revived deal in the Oct 5 to Nov 6 work period or a lame-duck session. No such vote is scheduled, and the 49-50 vote suggests that even a majority is uncertain. NOT FOUND: The Kalshi KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE rule text on which vote types count. The official Senate roll call page. Any scheduled Senate floor action after Sept 15. The Senate's lame-duck schedule.

- [2025-06-17] Reference class, same industry and same Senate: the GENIUS stablecoin bill failed a first cloture vote in May 2025. After text changes, cloture passed 68-30 on June 11, and final passage was 68-30 on June 17. That was about 5 weeks after the failed vote, and 18 Democrats voted yes. https://www.jonesday.com/en/insights/2025/06/senate-passes-genius-act-clearing-hurdle-for-federal-stablecoin-framework (also https://www.dailypress.senate.gov/?p=147869). A failed first cloture was recoverable there. The difference now is the Senate calendar and the midterms. - [2025-07-17] The House passed the CLARITY Act (H.R. 3633) 294-134, with 78 Democratic votes. https://www.orrick.com/en/Insights/2026/10/The-CLARITY-Act-Stalls-in-the-Senate-Whats-Next-for-Digital-Asset-Regulation - [2026-05-14] The Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill 15-9, and it was placed on the Senate calendar on June 1. This took about 10 months past Scott's original Sept 2025 target. https://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/majority/chairman-scott-senate-banking-committee-advance-clarity-act-in-historic-bipartisan-vote - [2026-09-15] The Senate failed cloture on the motion to proceed, 49-50 per Orrick. CNBC's text reports the tally as 50 for and 49 against, which is probably transposed. Either way it was far short of 60. Every Democrat present voted no, over ethics provisions on presidential crypto profits (per the Datawallet explainer). Lummis said "it's over" if the vote failed. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/15/senate-cloture-vote-on-clarity-act-fails-dealing-regulatory-setback-to-crypto-industry.html - [2026-09-15] Resolution point: the only floor vote so far was a procedural cloture vote on the motion to proceed, with about 49-50 yeas. If a similar procedural vote counted under the Kalshi definition, the yeas would still be 50 or fewer, so it would not clear "above 50". I could not confirm how KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE treats procedural votes versus passage. A final Yes needs 51 or more yeas on a floor vote, and in practice that means about 60 on cloture first. https://www.orrick.com/en/Insights/2026/10/The-CLARITY-Act-Stalls-in-the-Senate-Whats-Next-for-Digital-Asset-Regulation - [2026-09-15] Calendar: the midterm election was seven weeks away, and senators were scheduled to leave in early October and not return until after the election. The failed vote "likely means" waiting until next year. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/15/senate-cloture-vote-on-clarity-act-fails-dealing-regulatory-setback-to-crypto-industry.html - [2026-10-02] Orrick says the failed vote significantly diminished the chances of passage in this Congress. The SEC and CFTC are building an interim regime under existing authority. https://www.orrick.com/en/Insights/2026/10/The-CLARITY-Act-Stalls-in-the-Senate-Whats-Next-for-Digital-Asset-Regulation - [2026-10-06] CFTC Chair Selig issued an advance notice of proposed rulemaking on Oct 5. Lummis said the next realistic window for a market-structure law could be years away. The bill is unchanged on the calendar. https://homecryptoinvest.com/articles/clarity-act-update-2026.html - [2026-10-10] Polymarket priced about 5% on the Clarity Act ever being signed into law (24/7 Wall St. snapshot of a Polymarket post). https://247wallst.com/cards/xpost-01m4k205th81en53a9yy2q4k08 - [2026-09-14] Pre-vote market pricing, now stale. Polymarket put 2026 enactment at about 30%, up from 12% earlier in September. Kalshi put enactment before Oct 1, 2027 at about 53%, after a peak of 64%. These were wrong about the Sept 15 vote. https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/09/14/clarity-act-odds-surge-on-prediction-markets-but-crypto-bill-still-faces-long-road - [2026-05-11] Track record of prediction markets on this bill: Polymarket's 2026-enactment odds were 82% in February, 46% in late April, 73% on May 11, 24% in mid-July, and 29% in late July. The path was highly volatile and repeatedly overoptimistic. https://yellow.com/news/polymarket-clarity-act-senate-vote - [2025-08-19] Expert forecasts also overshot. Scott predicted 12-18 Democrats open to the bill and a September 2025 finish; the first Senate floor vote came a year later and got zero Democratic support. https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2025/08/19/senate-banking-chair-tim-scott-12-18-dems-may-vote-for-market-structure-bill BOTTOM LINE: The bill's only floor vote so far failed at 49-50, far short of cloture. With the Senate largely out until after the Nov 3 midterms and little time left in the year, the outside view is that a new floor vote with more than 50 yeas before Jan 1, 2027 is unlikely. Precedent from GENIUS (a failed cloture followed by passage 5 weeks later) shows recovery is possible, but the current deadlock is over the Trump-ethics issue and the lame-duck window is short. NOT FOUND: The Kalshi rule text defining which votes count (procedural versus final passage). Any scheduled lame-duck floor vote. Kalshi's own pricing for this contract (not searched, as instructed). Current Senate recess dates for November-December 2026.

YES means: the Senate holds a full-chamber vote on a crypto market structure bill (CLARITY Act, H.R. 3633, or a successor) before Jan 1, 2027, and the Yea count is 51 or more. A Yea count of 50 or fewer, or no vote at all, resolves No. I could not retrieve the Kalshi rule text on whether a cloture vote counts as a "vote on a bill". - [2026-09-21] BitGo's analysis of the Sept 15 roll call (citing the Senate floor log) shows 49 Republicans voted yes, and Rand Paul was one of them. Four Republicans voted no (Collins, Hawley, Moran, Tillis). Coons did not vote. Tillis's no was procedural, cast so he could move to reconsider. That puts the Republican floor at 49–50 yeas with all 53 Republicans in play. BitGo counts eight Democrats as persuadable: seven negotiators plus Gillibrand. All eight yes votes would have made 57. Any revival needs Democratic votes, and 51 yeas is the first threshold. https://www.bitgo.com/resources/blog/clarity-act/ - [2026-09-21] BitGo's best case for a revival is the lame duck. Majority Leader Thune can refile, and Tillis's motion to reconsider is pending. Sen. Kennedy said Sept 15 that the bill could return in the lame duck, and Alsobrooks said it is "not going to die". If the bill returned in the lame duck, the 49 Republican yeas plus Tillis flipping back give about 50. Just one Democrat would take that to 51. https://www.bitgo.com/resources/blog/clarity-act/ - [2026-09-21] The remaining Democratic objection is who enforces the ethics rules, not how strict they are. Enforcement stayed inside the executive branch in every draft. The Sept 14 text had already dropped the ethics sunset, made divestiture mandatory, and cut the ownership trigger to $15,000. The most plausible YES path is a deal on enforcement (for example, independent or state enforcement) plus the bank-lobby stablecoin-yield issue. That would give 8 or more Democrats, so the count is 57 or more on cloture and roughly 60 or more on passage. The most likely trigger is a White House concession, which would also need Collins/Moran/Hawley or Democratic offsets. https://www.bitgo.com/resources/blog/clarity-act/ - [2026-09-15] The Sept 15 vote was a motion-to-proceed vote that failed. The motion to reconsider means a re-vote does not need a new cloture filing from scratch. Commentary says the Senate could re-run it "the day 60 votes exist", and the GENIUS Act used a similar route in 2025. Source is an X post quoting a commentator, so treat it as a lead rather than confirmed procedure. https://coingape.com/clarity-act-eyes-second-chance-at-senate-cloture-vote-as-surprising-details-unfold/ - [2026-09-22] Yahoo reports that Congress.gov records Tillis's motion to reconsider. Digital Sovereignty Alliance's Adrian Wall said senators from both parties are weighing another push before this Congress ends, and called it a long shot. The motion sets no date. https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/senate-setback-leaves-clarity-act-111615314.html - [2026-09-17] Seven Democratic negotiators issued a joint statement committing to a bipartisan deal, and the lead Democrats argued they were not opposed to market-structure rules as such (per FinTech Weekly and the earlier reports). Fairshake's $108M war chest (end of August, per FEC) gives members electoral reason to revisit after Nov 3. Roll Call on Oct 5 shows Fairshake spending $30M against Sherrod Brown in Ohio. A Senate loss for Brown would strengthen the industry's hand in lame duck, and a Brown win would weaken it. https://rollcall.com/2026/10/05/05crypto/ - [2026-10-05] Rolling Call confirms the Senate "blocked the bill last month on a bipartisan procedural vote". It reports the House passed the bill 78 Democrats to 134 Republicans on the July 2025 vote (the latter figure is as printed). The House Democratic split gives a pro-crypto base to reach for in the Senate. Roll Call does not report any scheduled Senate floor action. https://rollcall.com/2026/10/05/05crypto/ - [2026-10-03] Former House Financial Services chair Patrick McHenry said CLARITY could still pass in the lame duck after Nov 3. Kennedy said the work "will have to wait until the lame-duck session". Cruz distinguished "almost dead" from "dead". Source is a secondary site, so this is lower confidence. https://homecryptoinvest.com/articles/clarity-act-update-2026.html - [2026-10-?] Cuomo (a former NY governor with crypto ties, not a senator) urged Congress this week to revive the bill in the post-election session. Pressure from outside advocates continues, but no senator has scheduled a vote. https://coininsider.org/news/clarity-act-andrew-cuomo-revival-senate BOTTOM LINE: The YES case needs a lame-duck deal on ethics enforcement that flips at least eight Democrats. Roughly 49–50 Republican yeas are already banked, so as few as one Democrat would clear 51 on a re-vote. No vote is scheduled, the House and Senate are out in October, and Lummis said "it's over", so this is a low-visibility path. NOT FOUND: The Kalshi KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE rule text on whether cloture or procedural votes count. Any scheduled Senate floor vote after Sept 15. The Senate's Nov–Dec 2026 lame-duck schedule. A White House concession on ethics enforcement after Sept 15.

YES means: the Senate holds a full-chamber vote on a crypto market structure bill before Jan 1, 2027, and that vote gets 51 or more Yea votes. - [2026-09-30/10-?] The lame-duck calendar is thin. The Senate is scheduled for only 8 session days in November and 14 in December (The Hill, ~Oct 2). One source says both chambers return Nov 9. Another says the Senate sits only two days that week, then leaves for Thanksgiving. The Senate is expected to end the year around Dec 18. The Hill's source in the Senate chamber says Republicans are skeptical much will get done. https://rollcall.com/2025/11/19/senate-calendar-2026-midterm-election/ ; https://www.asaonline.com/2026/09/30/prospects-for-the-lame-duck-session/ ; https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/6121941-senate-adjourns-midterm-campaigns/ (the Hill page could not be fetched; figures are from the search snippet). - [2026-09-30] The lame-duck must-do list is crowded. FY27 funding runs out Dec 11. The list also includes the NDAA, surface transportation, WRDA, the Ex-Im Bank (expires Dec 31), the farm bill, and FISA 702. Nominations also compete for floor time. https://www.asaonline.com/2026/09/30/prospects-for-the-lame-duck-session/ - [2026-09-?] The Hill earlier reported that Republicans are also planning a budget resolution and a reconciliation package for Iran war funding. That alone "could easily consume a couple weeks" of floor time, with all-night vote-a-ramas. A cloture vote on the motion to proceed (60 votes) plus cloture on the bill and passage need multiple floor days. https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/6064611-gop-punted-lame-duck-agenda/ - [2026-09-15] There is a vote-count ceiling. The failed cloture vote got 49 yeas. Four Republicans voted no (Collins, Hawley, Moran, Tillis) and every Democrat voted no. A Yes needs 51 or more yeas, so at least 2 more senators must flip. Reaching 60 cloture would need about 11 flips. One source says Tillis changed his vote to preserve a motion to reconsider (Forbes, Bitcoin Foundation). https://bitcoinfoundation.org/news/analysis/bitgo-ceo-mike-belshe-warns-us-crypto-is-at-risk-after-clarity-act-failure ; https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senate-fails-to-advance-clarity-act-amid-democratic-concerns-about-crypto-bill/ - [2026-09-15] This failed even after concessions. Sponsors said the final text included 126 Democratic-requested changes, and Thune cited more than 100. Democrats still voted no over ethics. Because of that, the problem is the Trump-family ethics issue, not drafting. That is a political problem and a lame-duck can't fix it by redrafting alone. Sen. Warren said "not this bill." https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/clarity-act-fails-in-senate-crypto-lobbying-intensifies-ahead-of-midterms ; https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senate-fails-to-advance-clarity-act-amid-democratic-concerns-about-crypto-bill/ - [2026-09-15] Democrats had resisted voting on the bill before the election. CoinDesk (Aug 6) reported they did not want to vote on it before the midterms and would have delayed the rest of the Senate's agenda. A Democratic incentive to avoid a second recorded vote before Nov 3 remains. Democratic incentives after the election are unknown. https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/08/06/senate-won-t-vote-on-crypto-clarity-act-before-its-summer-break - [2026-10-08] The strongest YES advocates have only hopes. Rep. Hill (House, not Senate) said on Fox Business Oct 7 he "still has hopes" for lame-duck passage. Bitcoin.com says many in the industry consider the bill already dead. It reports no scheduled vote, no new text and no new Democratic commitments. https://news.bitcoin.com/crypto-news/rep-hill-eyes-lame-duck-session-secure-clarity-act-approval - [2026-10-?] The Tillis motion to reconsider is only an option. A motion alone cannot overcome 60 votes. It would matter only if sponsors announce changed language or senators commit publicly. Crypto.news says the key evidence to watch is a revised ethics text and a new cloture tally. None had appeared by Oct 9. https://crypto.news/the-clarity-act-stalled-cryptos-election-money-faces-a-senate-test/ - [2026-09-14/10-?] Prediction-market pricing has collapsed. Polymarket "law in 2026" was about 31% on Sept 14, then about 5% after the vote (NewsBreak). A defirate tracker puts Kalshi's broader market-structure law contract near 8-9%. That tracker notes it is broader than H.R. 3633. Law is a stricter bar than a Senate vote with 51 or more yeas, so these figures bound the YES chance from above only loosely. https://www.newsbreak.com/news/4889517785691-clarity-act-fails-49-50-as-tillis-seeks-second-senate-vote-amid-uncertainty ; https://defirate.com/clarity-act-fact-sheet/ - [2026-09-15] Resolution technicality favoring NO: the Sept 15 vote was 49-50, on a motion to proceed. Both the "49" and the "50" are at or below 50, so it fails "above 50" even if it counts. The one source reporting 50-49 (CNBC) appears to have transposed the tally. Two sources (Bitcoin Foundation, CBS) confirm 49-50 with one senator not voting. Even a 50-yea reading is not "above 50." https://www.onebullex.com/news/articles/senate-cloture-vote-fails-49-50-blocking-clarity-act-after-8-million-crypto-lobbying-push - [2026-09-15] Another technicality: if the market resolves No when no vote has occurred, "Above 50" resolves No in the absence of any qualifying vote. The Senate would also have to reconsider and win more yeas than before. A ripening cloture motion needs two session days, so any new vote requires a leader filing at least ~2 days before the vote. https://cryptoslate.com/clarity-act-is-finally-headed-for-a-60-vote-senate-showdown-in-september/ - [2026-07-24] Galaxy cut its 2026 law odds from 50% to 30% in July, citing the shrinking Senate calendar, and that was before the failed vote. Experts have repeatedly been too optimistic on this bill's timing. https://www.theblock.co/news/regulation/2026-08-08-majority-leader-thune-files-cloture-on-clarity-act-setting-up-sept-15-senate-vote-411211 BOTTOM LINE: The only floor vote so far had 49 yeas, and a Yes needs a new floor vote with 51 or more yeas in roughly 14-22 lame-duck session days crowded with funding and other must-pass bills. No vote is scheduled, no revised ethics deal exists, and the Democratic block has not moved, so status quo favors NO. NOT FOUND: Kalshi's rule text for KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE on which vote types count. Any scheduled post-election Senate floor action on the bill. Any new bipartisan ethics deal or Trump sign-off on ethics terms after Sept 15. A confirmed Senate recess schedule for Thanksgiving week beyond secondary reports.