Will Arizona’s annual average employment in Semiconductor and Other Electronic Component Manufacturing for 2026 be above 24,431 employees?

- [2026-08-28] BLS published the final 2025 QCEW annual averages alongside Q1 2026 data. The Arizona NAICS 3344 (private) 2025 annual average employment now reads 23,135, down 2,077 (-8.2%) from 2024, in 227 establishments. This is below the 24,431 strike, which was fixed to the earlier preliminary 2025 value published June 2, 2026, so the preliminary figure was revised down by about 1,300. https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2025/a/industry/3344.csv - [2026-08-28] Q1 2026 QCEW for Arizona NAICS 3344 (private): monthly employment was 22,689 (Jan), 22,716 (Feb) and 22,325 (Mar). That averages about 22,577, roughly 1,850 below the strike. Year over year, March was down 1,006 (-4.3%). Establishments were 230 (+2.2%). Average weekly wage was $3,997 (+25%). https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2026/1/industry/3344.csv - [2026-08-28] Maricopa County accounts for most of the state's NAICS 3344 employment. Q1 2026 months were 21,618, 21,626 and 21,264, with March down 998 (-4.5%) year over year. 2025 annual average was 22,036 (-8.6%). https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2026/1/industry/3344.csv - [2026-08-28] The all-industry QCEW map for Arizona shows March 2026 total covered employment at 3,249,138, down 0.6% (-18,278) year over year. This points to a soft overall labor market in the state. https://data.bls.gov/maps/cew/US - [2026-12-02] Scheduled: the Q2 2026 County Employment and Wages release. Q3 and Q4 2026 dates are "to be determined, 2027". Annual 2026 data would follow the Q4 2026 release, expected around mid-2027 and possibly near or after the 2027-06-04 close. https://www.bls.gov/cew/release-calendar.htm - [2026-06-02] Preliminary full-year 2025 data was released with the Q4 2025 release. This is the source of the 24,431 strike. Per BLS, final annual averages come with the following year's Q1 release. https://www.bls.gov/cew/release-calendar.htm - [2026-10-12] CES data for Arizona (not the resolution source) shows total manufacturing at 191.9k in July 2026 and 192.2k in August (preliminary). This is down from 193.4k in March. The Phoenix metro was about 147.6k in July. Neither is a clear sign of a rebound. https://www.bls.gov/regions/west/arizona.htm - [2026 working paper] A Boston Fed paper finds large employment gains in Maricopa County from CHIPS investment, but few in manufacturing. It finds no measurable net change in semiconductor manufacturing because new-facility hiring offsets cuts at existing fabs. https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/research-department-working-paper/2026/local-labor-market-impacts-of-semiconductor-mega-investments - [2026, undated, secondary] A recruiting-firm blog says Intel cut more than 25,000 positions in 2025–26 and that TSMC Arizona is absorbing much of the displaced Phoenix-area fab talent. This is a secondary source. https://www.kore1.com/intel-layoffs-2026/ - [2026-07-22 and 2026-07-30] Arizona Commerce Authority items: FY26 saw record commitments of 26,225 projected jobs, and SEMICON West is moving to Arizona. These are announcements, not realized QCEW employment. https://www.azcommerce.com/industries/manufacturing/semiconductor-advantages/ BOTTOM LINE: The resolution source now shows 2025 revised down to 23,135, and Q1 2026 averages about 22,577 and is falling year over year. Exceeding 24,431 for 2026 would need a roughly 8% rise over Q1 levels, with no evidence of that yet. The Q2 release on 2026-12-02 is the next datapoint. NOT FOUND: Q2–Q4 2026 QCEW data for Arizona NAICS 3344 (not yet published). A BLS note explaining the downward revision from 24,431 to 23,135. Confirmation of the exact date of the final 2026 annual release. Any revision to the Q1 2026 data.

- [2026-10-12] The BLS QCEW annual file I retrieved shows Arizona NAICS 3344, private ownership, 2025 annual average employment at 23,135. That is down 2,077 (−8.2%) from 2024, with 227 establishments. The question's fixed strike of 24,431 does not match this figure. It may come from an earlier vintage or a different cut of the data, and I could not reconcile the two. If 23,135 is the current 2025 value, 2026 would need to rise about 5.6% to beat 24,431. https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2025/a/industry/3344.csv - [2026-10-12] 2024 annual average for the same series was 25,212, down 433 (−1.7%) from 2023, so 2023 was about 25,645. The recent annual path is roughly 25.6k (2023), 25.2k (2024), 23.1k (2025). That is two straight declines, and the 2025 drop was the larger one. https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2024/a/industry/3344.csv - [2026-10-12] Maricopa County dominates the series. It had 22,036 jobs in 2025, down 8.6% from 2024, against 24,099 in 2024. Arizona's 3344 share of national employment is a location quotient of about 2.9. National 3344 employment fell 2.4% in 2025, to 383,560 from 392,839. https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2025/a/industry/3344.csv - [2026-10-12] National employment in semiconductor and electronic component manufacturing "hovered" in the high 360,000s to low 370,000s through most of 2026. That is a low-quality secondary source citing BLS CES data, and it is well below the early-2023 peak near 401,000. It suggests no national rebound in 2026. https://successknocks.com/semiconductor-industry-job-growth-2026/ - [2026-10-12] Arizona OEO's August 2026 report shows statewide manufacturing employment down 1,000 jobs year over year (not seasonally adjusted). This is a CES figure and is not specific to NAICS 3344. It indicates no strong manufacturing expansion through August 2026. https://oeo.az.gov/latest-report - [2026-10-12] The azeconomy.org August 2026 update also lists manufacturing among the sectors that lost jobs over the year, both statewide and in the Tucson MSA. https://www.azeconomy.org/2026/10/this-week/august-2026-labor-market-update/ - [2025-11 approx.] An earlier OEO comment, from a press-release repost about 338 days before the search date, said Arizona was down 1,600 jobs in computer and electronic parts manufacturing year over year. It also said Intel layoffs had cut about 800 Arizona jobs. The same piece said OEO projects +5,600 computer and electronics manufacturing jobs by 2033, which is slow growth of a few hundred a year. https://freshstartwomen.org/press-releases/arizona-won-over-the-chips-industry-now-it-needs-workers-for-the-semiconductor-boom/ - [2026-07-30] The Arizona Commerce Authority reports large announced investment: TSMC's total Arizona commitment reached $265B after a July 2026 expansion announcement. FY26 saw a record 26,225 projected new Arizona jobs. These are projections, not realised QCEW jobs, and fab construction jobs fall in NAICS 23, not 3344. https://www.azcommerce.com/industries/manufacturing/semiconductor-advantages/ - [2026-10-12] TSMC Arizona's second fab, using N3, is slated to start operations in the second half of 2027 (job-board text). Ramp-up hiring for fab 2 would therefore mostly come after the 2026 reference year. https://www.ziprecruiter.com/co/Tsmc/Jobs/-in-Phoenix,AZ - [2026-10-12] A BLS API pull of 2026 Q1 Arizona data was attempted. The output was truncated before the 3344 rows and a follow-up fetch failed, so I have no 2026 quarterly figures for this industry. Q1 2026 data was available on the BLS API. Statewide all-industry private employment was down about 0.3–0.6% year over year in each month of Q1 2026. https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2026/1/area/04000.csv - [2026-10-12] Release timing: annual-average QCEW is first published in June of the following year. The 2026 annual value would therefore appear around June 2027, after the 2027-06-04 trading close, unless the Q4 2026 release falls before it. The close date is very close to the expected release date, so there is a timing risk. https://www.bls.gov/cew/publications/employment-and-wages-annual-averages/current/ BOTTOM LINE: On BLS data pulled today, Arizona 3344 annual averages fell from about 25.6k (2023) to 25.2k (2024) to 23.1k (2025). The 24,431 strike therefore sits above the latest 2025 figure I could find, so a Yes needs a rebound of 5% or more. Statewide manufacturing was still down year over year through August 2026. A separate risk is whether the 2026 annual figure is published before the 2027-06-04 close. NOT FOUND: Any 2026 quarterly QCEW or CES figure for Arizona NAICS 3344. The source of the 24,431 "2025 value" and why it differs from the 23,135 in the current BLS file. Any published forecast, poll or expert estimate of 2026 Arizona 3344 employment. A historical year-by-year series for Arizona 3344 before 2023.

YES means: BLS QCEW annual average employment for Arizona NAICS 3344 in 2026 is above 24,431. The 2026 figure has to be published in time to resolve the market. It is first published around June 2027 and may fall after the 2027-06-04 close. This is the strongest YES case I could build. The sourced evidence against YES is stronger than the evidence for it. - [2026-10-12] I re-read the BLS 2025 annual file myself. Arizona NAICS 3344 (private, own_code 5) shows 23,135 jobs in 227 establishments, down 2,077 from 2024. Maricopa County accounts for 22,036 of that. The annual average weekly wage was $3,120. The state location quotient for employment is 2.90. The earlier "24,431" was therefore a preliminary vintage that was later cut by about 1,300. This is the key YES lever: preliminary QCEW values have been revised by more than 1,000 jobs for this series. If the 2026 preliminary print is published in June 2027, it could differ from Q1 2026 monthly levels by a similar amount, and a revision in the other direction would help YES. Source: https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2025/a/industry/3344.csv - [2026-10-12] Establishment count is a positive. 2025 establishments rose 3.2% even as employment fell. A colleague's Q1 2026 figure shows +2.2%. New small sites (suppliers, Taiwanese tool and chemical vendors) are therefore adding units while the big incumbents shrink. This supports a trough-and-turn story, not a rebound in itself. Source: https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2025/a/industry/3344.csv - [2026-10-07] TSMC Arizona reported more than 3,500 Arizona employees as of the July 2026 expansion announcement. This is up from about 3,000 cited in earlier industry write-ups. Fab 3 reached structural topping in May 2026. Fab 4 and the first advanced-packaging fab have begun initial construction. Fab 2 is expected to start high-volume manufacturing in the second half of 2027. Pre-production hiring and training for fab 2 in late 2026 would add NAICS 3344 jobs before 2027. Whether the extra headcount reaches about 1,900 on a annual-average basis is unproven. Source: https://westvalleypost.com/tsmc-supplier-tracker/ - [2026-10-12] TSMC's own Arizona page, updated within the past week, says more than 3,500 employees support manufacturing. It also says the first three fabs will result in 6,000 direct jobs. Reaching 6,000 would add about 2,500 jobs to the current 3,500, though the timeline is the end of the decade. Source: https://www.tsmc.com/static/abouttsmcaz/index.htm - [2026-09-08] Amkor's phase 2 announcement lifts the Peoria campus to about $12B and to more than 3,500 Arizona-based employees across both phases. Phase 1 production is expected in early 2028, so this adds little to 2026 averages. A kitalent recruiting article claims limited production by Q4 2026 and 500–700 hires. That claim conflicts with Amkor's early-2028 timing, so I treat it as unreliable. Source: https://ir.amkor.com/news-releases/news-release-details/amkor-technology-announces-phase-2-arizona-advanced-packaging - [2026-10-12] TSMC Arizona job boards were still posting new listings in August and September 2026, including fab technician roles, a "Fall 2026 Engineering Full-Time" cohort and a Manufacturing Specialist Trainee posting dated Sept 20. Many of the 134–778 listings are construction or contractor roles, which are not 3344. The postings show continued direct hiring at TSMC, which would be a Q3–Q4 upward push. Source: https://www.ziprecruiter.com/co/Tsmc/Jobs/--in-Arizona - [2026-01 to 2026-03] CES data, which is not the resolution source, shows Arizona manufacturing up 600 jobs in January 2026, with year-over-year losses shrinking to -0.26% by March from -0.72% in January. That is a narrowing of declines, not growth. Source: https://commonsenseinstituteus.org/arizona/research/jobs-and-our-economy/arizona-jobs-and-labor-force-april-2026-update/ - [2026-06] The April 2026 CES benchmark revised Arizona payroll jobs back to early 2024 in a way the state economist called puzzling. This shows large revisions between data vintages are normal. Source: https://www.azeconomy.org/2026/06/economy/the-curious-case-of-arizona-jobs-2023-2025/ - [2026-10-12] BLS says final annual averages come with the next year's Q1 release, and preliminary annual averages come with Q4. A preliminary 2026 annual average is therefore the most likely resolution value, if it is published in time. That makes YES possible through a preliminary-vintage upward bias, which is the only mechanism with a documented precedent in this series. Source: https://www.bls.gov/cew/release-calendar.htm Single most likely path to YES: the preliminary 2026 annual average, published with Q4 2026 data, comes in near the 24,431 level, as the 2025 preliminary did. This needs three things to hold: - The Q1 2026 average of about 22,577 is itself revised up, or Arizona's Q2–Q4 2026 months climb by roughly 2,000. TSMC's fab 2 pre-ramp and supplier openings would drive that climb. - Incumbent cuts such as Intel's stop. - The release lands before the 2027-06-04 close, or the market stays open until publication. NOT FOUND: Any Q2–Q4 2026 QCEW or state CES value for NAICS 3344. A BLS or Arizona explanation of the 2025 preliminary-to-final revision. Evidence that Intel Arizona headcount rose in 2026. Any official statement that the 2026 annual data will publish before 2027-06-04. BOTTOM LINE: The YES case rests mainly on TSMC's ramp and revision noise. The 2025 final is 23,135 and Q1 2026 is about 22,600, so YES needs a roughly 8% jump over Q1, or a preliminary print that is revised up. I found no 2026 data showing that jump, and the fixed strike sits above the latest 2025 value.

YES means: BLS QCEW Arizona NAICS 3344 annual-average employment for 2026 is published and is above 24,431. - [2026-08-28] The Q1 2026 file shows March at 22,325, the lowest of the quarter. All three months were down year over year (−3.1%, −3.5%, −4.3%), and the decline widened through the quarter. The exit rate going into Q2 is therefore about 2,100 below the strike. An annual average above 24,431 would need Q2–Q4 to average about 25,100 or more. That is roughly 12% above the March level and would need to start immediately. https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2026/1/industry/3344.csv - [2026-08-28] In the same Q1 file, Q1 wages rose 20.6% year over year while employment fell, and taxable wages fell 4.9%. This looks like a shift to fewer, higher-paid workers (cuts of lower-wage and production jobs, with hiring of engineers and technicians). It does not look like a headcount build-up. https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2026/1/industry/3344.csv - [2026-08-28] The national comparison is also negative. National 3344 Q1 2026 employment was about 378,000 and down 1.4–2.0% year over year. Arizona's decline is more than twice the national rate, so there is no sign of a national tailwind. https://data.bls.gov/cew/data/api/2026/1/industry/3344.csv - [2026-08-28] BLS says final annual averages arrive with the following year's Q1 data, and the 2025 annual-averages table was published on 2026-08-28. The strike (24,431) was fixed to the preliminary June 2 value. The final 2025 value is now lower at 23,135, per the colleagues' reports. Preliminary 2026 data will carry the same revision risk, and the preliminary-to-final revision here was a 1,300-job downward move, which is not the 0.1% BLS cites as typical. If a resolver uses the final 2025 vintage, 2026 must rise about 5.6% to resolve Yes. https://www.bls.gov/cew/release-calendar.htm - [2026-10-12] Release timing is a technical route to NO. The 2025 Q4 and annual data came out on 2026-06-02, and the Q4 2026 date is only "to be determined, 2027". The 2027-06-04 close sits within days of the likely release. The 2024 Q4 release was 2025-06-04. A slip of even a week past the close, or a schedule disruption like the late-2025 funding lapse that moved the Q2 2025 release to Dec 19, could leave the value unpublished at close. https://www.bls.gov/cew/release-calendar.htm - [2026-08-30] Intel's Chandler cuts continue. A WARN notice filed Aug 21 covers 29 contractor jobs at the Chandler campus, with the contract ending Oct 19. A WARN tracker shows 1,178 Intel Chandler workers affected in the last 24 months, with filings through Sep 18, 2026. These are small relative to the roughly 2,000-job gap, but they show no hiring turn at Arizona's largest 3344 employer. https://ktar.com/arizona-business/contractor-lay-off-workers-chandler-intel-facility ; https://warnact.io/company-intel - [2026-06-xx] Arizona state manufacturing (CES) was down 500 jobs year over year in March 2026 (−0.26%). It was also down year over year in January 2026 (−0.7%). The Arizona Technology Council's Aug 12 report highlights engineering-occupation growth but gives no 3344 headcount rise. https://commonsenseinstituteus.org/arizona/research/jobs-and-our-economy/arizona-jobs-and-labor-force-april-2026-update/ ; https://www.aztechcouncil.org/news/arizona-technology-council-releases-q1-2026-industry-impact-report/ - [2026-03] National computer and electronic product manufacturing (CES) fell by about 18,100 jobs from March 2025 to March 2026. The report notes that sector job losses persist despite large fab announcements. https://instrumental.com/resources/build-better-news/u-s-electronics-manufacturing-sheds-nearly-20000-jobs-despite-billions-in-spending/ - [2025-11-13] The Arizona OEO long-term projection of +5,600 computer and electronics jobs by 2033 implies about 500 per year. That pace cannot close a gap of 2,000 or more within one year. https://oeo.az.gov/sites/default/files/data/emp/LTIP_emp_proj_slides.pdf - [2026-10-12] Mechanism for inertia: TSMC fab 2 production starts in 2027 (colleagues' report). Fab-ramp hiring at TSMC also tends to be classified under 3344, but TSMC's recent hiring has not offset the roughly 2,000-job fall in 2025 or the Q1 2026 decline. The Boston Fed paper (colleagues' report) finds hiring at new fabs is offset by cuts at existing fabs. Reaching the strike therefore needs an unusually large and quick hiring wave in Q2–Q4 2026. BOTTOM LINE: The strike sits about 1,850 above the Q1 2026 average and about 1,300 above the final 2025 value. The trend is negative: employment is falling year over year by 3–4% and accelerating into March. Publication timing around the 2027-06-04 close adds a further path to NO. NOT FOUND: Q2–Q4 2026 QCEW for Arizona 3344. A BLS explanation of the 24,431→23,135 revision. A confirmed Q4 2026 release date. Any 2026 CES data for Arizona NAICS 3344 specifically. Any TSMC Arizona 2026 headcount figure.