Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?

- [2026-08-11] Vermont's primary results are in. Gov. Phil Scott (R) was renominated with 98.5% (21,466 votes). Amanda Janoo narrowly won the Democratic primary over Aly Richards, 49.1% to 46.6%. Janoo is also the Progressive nominee. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Vermont_gubernatorial_election - [2026-08-11] AP, NBC and ABC all projected Janoo as the Democratic winner. Scott is the Republican nominee, so a Scott win would resolve this market Yes. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-primary-elections/vermont-governor-results - [2026-09-23 to 2026-09-25] Race ratings are mostly safe for Scott, with one exception: - Cook: Solid R (updated 2026-04-27). - Decision Desk HQ: Safe R (2026-09-23). - Fox News: Solid R (2026-07-23). - Inside Elections: Solid R. - Sabato: Safe R (2026-05-28). - RealClearPolitics: Lean R (2026-09-25). - Silver Bulletin: Tossup (2026-09-25). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Vermont_gubernatorial_election - [2026-09 (about 09-22)] A University of New Hampshire poll had Janoo ahead of Scott 49% to 43%. The WCAX report puts it "just days" before 2026-09-28. https://www.wcax.com/2026/09/28/vermont-public-poll-shows-scott-leading-janoo-tight-race-governor/ - [2026-09-28] A Vermont Public/Braun poll (±3.4%, adults) had Scott ahead 42% to 32%, with 20% undecided. Independent Brian Judd had 2%, Dean Roy (Free) 1%, and June Goodband (Peace & Justice) 0%. https://politicalwire.com/2026/09/28/phil-scott-comfortably-ahead-for-vermont-governor/ - [2026-09-28] Forty percent of Democrats approve of Scott's job performance. Observers say this is his stiffest reelection bid in years. https://www.wcax.com/2026/09/28/vermont-public-poll-shows-scott-leading-janoo-tight-race-governor/ - [2026-10-07] A State Navigate poll (Oct 2–4, 948 likely voters, ±3.2%) had Scott 46%, Janoo 43%, with 8% undecided. The initial ballot, before leaners, was 43% to 41%. Scott's job approval was 57%. https://projects.statenavigate.com/interactives/vt/statewide-poll-october-2026/ - [2026-10-11] VTDigger reports that Scott's pre-election polling has historically run well below his final result. Since 2016 his polled support has averaged about 14 points below his final share. In 2024 UNH's late-October poll had him up 39 points and he won by nearly 52. Scott's campaign says polls have "always undervalued" him. VTDigger notes this does not guarantee the pattern repeats. https://vtdigger.org/2026/10/11/political-polls-historically-underestimate-phil-scott-will-2026-be-different/ - [2026-10-09] Ballots were mailed later than expected, and PAC money is flowing into Vermont races. https://vtdigger.org/2026/10/11/political-polls-historically-underestimate-phil-scott-will-2026-be-different/ - [2026-10-29 / 2026-11-03] The write-in filing deadline is Oct 29. The general election is Nov 3, one day before the market closes. https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/VT - [2026-11-03] If no candidate gets 50% in the governor's race, the Legislature chooses among the top three candidates. Minor candidates are on the ballot (Judd, Roy, Goodband), so a sub-50% result is possible if the race is close. https://www.thegreenpapers.com/G26/VT - [2026-11-03] Scott's past margins were 73.4% in 2024, 71.0% in 2022 and 68.5% in 2020. https://ballotpedia.org/Vermont_gubernatorial_election,_2026 BOTTOM LINE: Scott is the Republican nominee and the incumbent, and the key unknown is how close polling really is. UNH (Janoo +6) and State Navigate (Scott +3) show a tight race, Vermont Public shows Scott +10, and his polls have historically understated his final result. A plurality-without-majority outcome would send the choice to the Legislature, which is a small tail risk. NOT FOUND: The Vermont Secretary of State's official candidate list (the Green Papers page was stale). Any AP, Fox or NBC call, which is expected only after Nov 3. Fundraising totals. Other venues' market prices, which I did not search for.

- [2026-09-28] Scott leads in most public polling but with a narrowed margin. Vermont Public/Braun gave Scott 42%, Janoo 32%, with 20% undecided. Among likely voters it was 44–34. Scott's approval was 45%, down 15 points from 2022. https://vtdigger.org/2026/09/28/new-poll-shows-gov-phil-scott-leading-amanda-janoo-by-10-points/ - [2026-09-25] A UNH poll (Sept 17–21, 829 likely voters, ±3.3) had Janoo ahead 49–43. It is the only poll I found with the Democrat leading. Journalist Chris Graff called it an "outlier". Scott's campaign says public polling has always undervalued him. https://vtdigger.org/2026/09/28/new-poll-shows-gov-phil-scott-leading-amanda-janoo-by-10-points/ - [2026-10-07] A State Navigate poll of likely voters (±3.2) has Scott 46%, Janoo 43%. I could not open the page; this comes from the search snippet. https://politicalwire.com/2026/10/07/phil-scott-barely-leads-in-vermont-governors-race/ - [2026-09-25] Ratings, from the Wikipedia table (fetched page): Cook Solid R (listed as of Sept 11, 2025). Inside Elections Solid R (Aug 2025). Fox Solid R (Jul 23, 2026). Sabato Safe R (May 28, 2026). DDHQ Safe R (Sep 23). RCP Lean R (Sep 25). Silver Bulletin Tossup (Sep 25). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Vermont_gubernatorial_election - [2026-09-29] Sabato's Crystal Ball moved Vermont from Safe R to Likely R on Sept 29, per a 270toWin snippet. Newsweek (~Sept 26) said Sabato, Silver Bulletin and Race to the WH all had Likely R. Cook's page still showed Solid R, with analysis updated Aug 28, 2026. https://www.270towin.com/2026-governor-election-predictions/ ; https://www.cookpolitical.com/governor/race/479611 - [2026-10-11] The Boston Globe reports Howard Dean saying Vermont "is not as immune to the national trends as everybody thinks". Scott's base leans on Democrats and independents. Janoo, a first-time candidate, narrowly won the Aug 11 primary over Aly Richards. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/10/11/metro/vermont-governor-phil-scott-amanda-jano/ - [2026-08-11] Democratic primary: Janoo 49.1%, Richards 46.6%, 80,693 total votes. Scott was effectively unopposed in the Republican primary, 98.5% of 21,799 votes. Higher Democratic primary turnout is a mild sign of Democratic engagement. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Vermont_gubernatorial_election - [2026-03-10] Historical base rate for Scott: he beat his last three general election opponents by at least 39 points. He won 70.9% in 2022 (a 47-point margin) and 73.4% in 2024 (a 52-point margin). https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2026-03-10/republican-gov-phil-scott-democratic-challenge-2026 ; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Vermont_gubernatorial_election - [2022 and 2024] Scott's polling track record: UNH had him at 48–31 in Oct 2022, and he won 71–24. UNH had him at 65–26 in Nov 2024, and he won 73–22. Polls have not overstated him in the past two cycles, though this cycle's polls are much closer. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Vermont_gubernatorial_election - [2026-05-28] Scott filed for a sixth term. Polls show 52–64% of voters undecided at earlier stages. Morning Consult named him the most popular US governor as of its July report. https://vtdigger.org/2026/05/28/gov-phil-scott-is-running-for-reelection/ - [2026-10-01] Wider context: Cook's governor ratings page lists Scott's race as Solid R. Consensus and prediction-market summaries on 270toWin show markets and forecasters broadly expecting a near-even national governor split. Two further points on the race: - Vermont is the only Republican-held governorship in a state Harris won by double digits. - Janoo is not a major Democratic figure; the party's top-tier names (Clark, Pieciak) declined to run. https://www.270towin.com/2026-governor-election/cook-political-report-2026-governor - [2024-11] Ticket-splitting is established in Vermont: Republican John Rodgers flipped the lieutenant governor office in 2024 with 48.8%, in a D+16 state. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_lieutenant_gubernatorial_elections BOTTOM LINE: The outside view favors Scott strongly: he is a five-term incumbent who won by 47 and 52 points, and most forecasters rate the race Safe, Solid or Likely R. The 2026 polling is much tighter, ranging from Janoo +6 to Scott +10, and the national environment is a headwind, so a Republican win now looks likely but not close to certain. Resolution should be quick, since AP, Fox and NBC are likely to call the race on election night (Nov 3), within the Nov 4 trading close. NOT FOUND: Polymarket or other betting prices (deliberately not searched). Full Cook and Inside Elections 2026 narrative updates. The text of the State Navigate poll. Results of any debates.

YES means: Republican nominee Phil Scott (incumbent) wins the Nov 3, 2026 Vermont governor election, as called by AP, Fox and NBC or by certification. - [2026-10-11] The Globe says Scott "won each of his last three races by more than 40 points". It also reports that the Republican Governors Association made its first investment in the race the previous week, $400,000 for a pro-Scott super PAC. A WCAX report from 2026-10-09 calls this the RGA's biggest spend for Scott since about $3M in 2016. The Globe presents this as a sign of ally concern, but it also means outside money is arriving for a nominee who has less cash than past cycles. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/10/11/metro/vermont-governor-phil-scott-amanda-jano/ - [2026-10-04] I fetched the State Navigate poll page (Oct 2–4). Scott's 57% job approval is well above his 46% ballot share. Of the 21% of likely voters who backed Scott in 2024 and now back Janoo, 40% still approve of him. That leaves persuadable approvers, and the poll says undecideds are "truly up for grabs". The poll's four-point total for Judd, Goodband and Roy exceeds Scott's three-point lead. Voters disapprove of the Legislature 49% to 38%, and Scott voters disapprove of it 64% to 28%. Scott's pitch is to check a Democratic Legislature. https://projects.statenavigate.com/interactives/vt/statewide-poll-october-2026/ - [2026-10-04] In the same poll, 33% of Scott voters pick Democrat Molly Gray for lieutenant governor. Gray leads Rodgers 59% to 32%. Scott is running well ahead of the Republican ticket, which is the cross-party appeal his coalition depends on. https://projects.statenavigate.com/interactives/vt/statewide-poll-october-2026/ - [2026-09-25] The UNH Janoo +6 poll sampled 508 Democrats, 258 Republicans and 78 independents (Seven Days). Scott's campaign attacked this mix, though a pollster quoted in the article said it matches Vermont's party registration. In that poll, Scott still held 53% of independents and 89% of Republicans, while Janoo took 73% of Democrats. Scott's campaign says UNH has missed him by double digits before. https://www.sevendaysvt.com/news/politics/new-poll-shows-janoo-with-narrow-lead-over-incumbent-gov-scott/ - [2026-09-28] Rich Clark, the political scientist who ran the Vermont Public poll, said Scott keeps a statistically significant lead. The Vermont Public Braun poll shows Scott's lead is outside the margin of error. https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2026-09-28/poll-shows-amanda-janoo-closing-on-phil-scott-governors-race - [2026-10-11] VTDigger reports that the UNH and Vermont Public polls give Scott almost the same share. The difference is that Janoo does better in UNH, where fewer voters are undecided. If undecideds break toward Scott, as they historically have, he holds a majority. This matches his 2016–2024 pattern of finishing about 14 points above his polled share. https://vtdigger.org/2026/10/11/political-polls-historically-underestimate-phil-scott-will-2026-be-different/ - [2026-10-02] Cash is roughly level, though Janoo has the edge in fundraising. Scott had $295,845 on hand against Janoo's $280,000 on 2026-10-01, and Janoo's cycle haul is $706K to his $414K (Seven Days). Janoo bought her first TV time only on Sept 29, while Scott spent about $137K on TV in September. Scott also has a $219K carryover and the RGA PAC. Janoo's lead in money is much smaller than the spending gaps in past races. The Compass Vermont piece notes that Zuckerman outraised Scott 1.7-to-1 in 2020 and lost by 41 points. Fundraising is therefore a weak predictor here. https://www.sevendaysvt.com/news/janoo-outraised-gov-scott-in-september-disclosures-show/ ; https://www.compassvermont.com/p/zuckerman-outraised-scott-in-2020 - [2026-10-07] Scott publicly called Janoo "very articulate" and said people want change, so he is taking the challenge seriously. He is also proposing tax cuts and has told agencies to plan for lower revenue. Janoo's platform is a tax hike on high earners, second homes and large tech companies, plus free primary care. This is the contrast Scott's campaign has used to cast her as an ideological progressive, in an affordability-focused electorate. https://vtdigger.org/2026/10/07/vermont-governors-race-will-test-voters-appetite-for-raising-new-taxes-or-cutting-them/ - [2026-09-28] A Scott spokesperson says the state's voters rejected progressive ideology in the last cycle and elected mainstream legislators. In 2024 Scott helped break the Democratic supermajorities. https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2026-09-28/poll-shows-amanda-janoo-closing-on-phil-scott-governors-race - [2026-10-07] The Vermont Public debate on Oct 21 and a WCAX debate on Oct 28 are the only two scheduled debates. Scott is declining additional debates, so his exposure is limited. Janoo is a first-time candidate who is still building name recognition. The Sept 8 Vermont Public analysis made that point. https://www.sevendaysvt.com/news/janoo-outraised-gov-scott-in-september-disclosures-show/ ; https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2026-09-08/janoo-raising-more-campaign-money-than-scott-still-faces-financial-handicap - [2026-10-07] Bernie Sanders endorsed Janoo. Scott's campaign said Scott has never needed Sanders' support. This is a possible turnout boost for Janoo, but not evidence of a swing among Scott's independents and moderates. https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2026-10-07/bernie-sanders-endorses-amanda-janoo-vermont-governor - [2026-07-21] An earlier UNH poll had Scott 44, Janoo 33. In that poll Scott's net approval was +5, with 45% of Democrats and 45% of independents approving. The UNH September poll showed a 12-point swing against him within two months, after the Democratic primary consolidated the party. That points to partisan consolidation, which can be partly priced in and may not be a continuing trend. https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1981&context=survey_center_polls BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case is that Scott leads in two of the three September–October polls, holds an approval rating above his ballot share, has a history of polls understating him by about 14 points, and has a head-to-head cash position that has not turned decisively against him. The most likely path is that undecideds and soft Janoo voters who approve of Scott break his way, so he reaches about 50% and wins a plurality, avoiding both a Janoo win and a legislative election. NOT FOUND: Early-voting or ballot-return data by party. Any poll after Oct 4. Debate results (the first debate is Oct 21). The Vermont Secretary of State's final candidate list. Any AP, Fox or NBC call.

YES means: Republican nominee Phil Scott wins the 2026 Vermont governor's race, as called by AP, Fox and NBC or, failing that, by official certification. NO means Janoo, or anyone else, is the winner. - [2026-10-02] Seven Days (fetched) reports that Janoo raised $291k in September and $706k in total, against Scott's $414k raised this cycle. Her cash on hand was $280k to his $296k. Scott held no public campaign events in September and declined two forums. Seven Days calls it the most competitive race since 2016. Scott is running a low-spend, low-engagement campaign, which supports the NO case. https://www.sevendaysvt.com/news/janoo-outraised-gov-scott-in-september-disclosures-show/ - [2026-10-09] The Republican Governors Association has put $400k into a pro-Scott PAC, with $160k spent so far. WCAX says it is the RGA's largest spend here since 2016, "the latest indication" the race is competitive. The Democratic Governors Association has sent $40k to a pro-Janoo PAC. The RGA spending is a revealed-preference signal that Republican insiders see real risk. https://www.wcax.com/2026/10/09/outside-spending-is-pouring-into-vermonts-race-governor/ - [2026-10-11] The Boston Globe (fetched) reports Scott saying he is "not immune" to a blue wave. UNH's Andrew Smith compares him to Wile E. Coyote, who runs off a cliff and only then drops. The article says both the UNH poll (Janoo +6) and the Vermont Public poll (Scott +10) show fewer than half of Vermonters approving of Scott for the first time. GOP chair Paul Dame says Scott must do things "outside his nature". The state Senate GOP leader concedes Democrats "are actually putting up a fight." https://www.bostonglobe.com/2026/10/11/metro/vermont-governor-phil-scott-amanda-jano/ - [2026-10-07] The State Navigate poll (Oct 2–4, page fetched via search) gives Scott 46%, Janoo 43%, 8% undecided and 4% for minor candidates, all including leaners. The first-pass ballot was Scott 43, Janoo 41, with 14% undecided. Scott's job approval is 57% but his vote share is 46%. Among Scott 2024 voters now backing Janoo, 40% still approve of him, so approval is not translating into votes. The poll also has Scott voters splitting for lieutenant governor, with 33% choosing Democrat Molly Gray. https://projects.statenavigate.com/interactives/vt/statewide-poll-october-2026/ - [2026-09-28] Vermont Public reports Scott's approval among Democrats is down 31 points over four years. It also reports Democratic strategist Julia Barnes saying his support has "cratered" since 2024. That points to partisan polarization eroding his crossover base. https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2026-09-28/poll-shows-amanda-janoo-closing-on-phil-scott-governors-race - [2026-10-21 / 2026-10-28] Two debates remain, on Oct 21 (Vermont Public) and Oct 28 (WCAX). Scott has so far refused extra forums, and the Rutland Herald editorial board is criticizing him for it. Both debates fall inside the window and could shift 8–20% undecided voters, who are the late-deciding pool that NO needs. https://www.sevendaysvt.com/news/janoo-outraised-gov-scott-in-september-disclosures-show/ - [Mechanism: majority rule] Vermont's Constitution (§47) requires more than 50% for governor, otherwise the Legislature chooses among the top three finishers. This went to the Legislature as recently as 2014, when Shumlin got 46.4%. https://www.vermontpublic.org/vpr-news/2014-11-06/wait-the-legislature-is-choosing-the-governor - State Navigate's 46% for Scott plus 4% for minor candidates leaves little room under a 50% threshold. - The criterion falls back to certification if AP, Fox and NBC do not all call the same winner, which could push resolution to a January legislative vote. - The Legislature is Democratic-controlled, and a legislative vote could theoretically elect someone other than the plurality leader. Ballotpedia says no second- or third-place finisher has been elected since 1789, while Vermont's own record says 1853 was the last time the plurality winner lost. This is a tail risk. - Such a vote would fall after the Nov 4 market close, so timing is uncertain. https://ballotpedia.org/Vermont_gubernatorial_election,_2018 - [2026-09-03] WCAX quotes an analyst saying the late August primary leaves challengers little time to raise money. That is a structural hurdle for Janoo. However, Janoo outraised Scott roughly two to one after the primary, and Scott was reported not to have "turned on the fundraising spigot". https://www.wcax.com/2026/09/03/janoo-outraises-scott-race-vermont-governor/ - [2026-10-12] The poll-aggregator site PoliAgg lists Democratic-side cross-platform market prices of about 24¢, against a model that gives Janoo 1%. The model's R+24 margin sits far from every public poll, so the model looks like a structural prior and not an update. The 24¢ is a snapshot from an aggregator, not this contract's price. https://poliagg.com/race/us-governor-2026-vt/ - [2026-07-02] Earlier UNH polling (July) already showed Scott's approval at a four-year low, and it has fallen further since. The slide in approval has therefore persisted for at least three months. This is a trend and not a one-poll outlier. https://www.vermontpublic.org/local-news/2026-07-02/phil-scotts-approval-numbers-slipping-new-poll-finds - [Weak spot in the NO case] Status quo and inertia favor Scott. He is the incumbent, and even the worst recent poll for him came from UNH. The VTDigger pattern of polls understating him (Oct 11) and the Vermont Public poll's 20% undecided mean most of the NO path depends on undecided voters breaking to Janoo. I found no poll since Oct 4. BOTTOM LINE: The NO case is mainly a close-race and majority-threshold case. Scott's State Navigate number is 46% and below 50% in every public poll, Janoo leads on money, and RGA spending suggests his side sees a competitive race. A failure to clear 50% would also push the outcome to a January legislative vote and could delay resolution. NOT FOUND: Any poll after Oct 4. Cook's or Inside Elections' October rating changes. Early-vote or turnout data. Debate results, since they are still pending. The Secretary of State's official ballot list.