Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?

- [2026-10-05] Sánchez announced a snap general election for Sunday 29 Nov 2026. He said the Council of Ministers would dissolve the Cortes that morning. Royal Decree 806/2026 of 5 Oct dissolves both chambers and calls the election. https://www.lamoncloa.gob.es/presidente/actividades/Paginas/2026/051026-sanchez-convocatoria-elecciones.aspx - [2026-10-02/05] Trigger: Congress rejected two emergency housing decrees on 2 Oct, with PP, Vox and Junts voting against. Sánchez called the vote three days later. https://theconversation.com/spains-snap-election-will-pedro-sanchezs-latest-gamble-pay-off-293716 - [2026-10-06 onward] Calendar: the decree was due in the BOE on 6 Oct. Candidacies are to be filed 20–25 Oct. Election day is 29 Nov, one day before the market's 30 Nov close, so a result is expected before closing. https://forbes.es/actualidad/1036531/elecciones-generales-2026-sanchez-29-noviembre/ - [2026-10-05] Reuters/Al Jazeera: polls suggest a PP-led coalition backed by Vox is the most likely outcome, and Sánchez is taking a risk. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/5/spanish-prime-minister-pedro-sanchez-announces-snap-election-amid-housing-crisis - [2026-10-05] RTVE's polling average put PP and Vox together above 200 seats, against 176 needed for a majority. It showed losses for PSOE and a steeper proportional fall for Sumar. https://theconversation.com/spains-snap-election-will-pedro-sanchezs-latest-gamble-pay-off-293716 - [2026-10-08] NC Report/La Razón: PP 34.1% (146–148 seats), PSOE 25.0% (98–102), Vox 18.2% (61–64). https://www.democrata.es/en/center-of-surveys-and-electoral-polls/general-elections/nc-report-psoe-slightly-rises-and-pp-and-vox-maintain-the-majority-of-seats/ - [2026-10 (published ~10-09)] 40dB: PP 31.9%, PSOE 28.1%, Vox 18.9% with Sumar and Podemos running separately. Seats: PP 132, PSOE 110, Vox 66. With a joint left list: PP 129, PSOE 106. https://www.democrata.es/en/center-of-surveys-and-electoral-polls/general-elections/surveys-from-23-j-about-pp-psoe-and-vox-this-is-how-the-electoral-forecasts-changed/ - [2026-10-10] SocioMétrica/El Español express poll: PP 33.4% (143 seats), PSOE 26.5% (106), Vox 18.1% (62). IMOP has PSOE at about 110 seats, with PP and Vox about 200 together. https://www.democrata.es/en/center-of-surveys-and-electoral-polls/general-elections/ - [2026-10-11] Target Point: PP 32.0%, PSOE 25.9%, Vox 18.7%. This is a gap of about 6 points, and PSOE is up 0.3 since 13 Sep. https://www.democrata.es/en/center-of-surveys-and-electoral-polls/general-elections/general-elections-survey-pp-and-vox-exceed-190-seats-and-psoe-barely-recovers-according-to-target-point/ - [2026-10 (undated, ~10-08/09)] Demócrata's recalculation of the CIS housing survey is the narrowest gap found. At 70% turnout it gives PP 32.3% (132 seats), PSOE 30.4% (121) and Vox 18.1% (62). This is a Demócrata recalculation, not a CIS seat projection. The same page lists DYM with PSOE up 1.9 points. https://www.democrata.es/en/center-of-surveys-and-electoral-polls/general-elections/ - [2026-10-06] Context: a housing-eviction scandal and protests, the Ceuta migration crisis and corruption allegations. Analysts say tactical voting and housing could help PSOE, but the right's polling lead is larger than in 2023. https://theconversation.com/spains-snap-election-will-pedro-sanchezs-latest-gamble-pay-off-293716 - [2023-07-23 baseline] PP 137 seats (33.1%), PSOE 121 (31.7%), Vox 33. PSOE has 121 seats now. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Spanish_general_election BOTTOM LINE: PP leads PSOE in every poll found, by about 6–9 points in most. Seat projections run PP 129–148 against PSOE 98–121, and the narrowest gap is the Demócrata CIS recalculation (132 to 121). The election is on 29 Nov, so the market should resolve before the 30 Nov close. NOT FOUND: Any official results, since voting has not taken place. A direct infoelectoral.interior.gob.es page, which I did not fetch. Post-announcement polls from GAD3, Sigma Dos and the CIS seat estimate. Any news from the last 7 days beyond 11 Oct poll releases.

- [2026-10-05] Sánchez dissolved the Cortes and called the general election for 29 Nov 2026. It was a snap call after PP, Vox and Junts defeated his housing decrees. This was before the legal deadline of 23 Jul 2027, and he had repeatedly said "elections in 2027". The vote falls inside the market window (closes 30 Nov). The 54-day timetable gives a campaign start of about 13 Nov. https://maldita.es/control-del-poder/20261005/sanchez-elecciones-29-noviembre-legislatura-2027/ ; https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/2026-10-06/sanchez-calls-snap-election-in-spain/1096413 - [2026-10-09] The first post-call polls (NC Report, IMOP, 40dB, DYM) all put PP and Vox at about 202 seats on average. PSOE is at 109-112 in all of them except NC Report (about 100). 40dB has PSOE at 112, or 106 if Sumar and Podemos run on a joint list. https://www.elindependiente.com/espana/2026/10/09/las-primeras-encuestas-tras-la-convocatoria-de-generales-deja-a-pp-y-vox-en-una-mayoria-absoluta-de-202-escanos/ - [2026-10-09] The Wikipedia poll table (fieldwork 1-9 Oct) shows PP ahead in every poll listed, with leads of about 3.3 to 9.1 points. Examples: Target Point 32.0 vs 25.9; EM-Analytics 31.5 vs 26.9; 40dB 31.9 vs 28.1 (seat ranges PP 123-140, PSOE 105-117); Hamalgama 33.4 vs 25.3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Spanish_general_election - [2026-10-05] A PSOE-commissioned poll (7,000 sample) gave PSOE 129 seats against PP 126. It is partisan and an outlier. Wikipedia's table also lists a SocioMétrica poll for the PP (PP 144, PSOE 106). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Spanish_general_election - [2026-10-11] A 35-poll average gives PP 32.5% and PSOE 26.5%. Its simulated seats are PP 134 (range 120-150), PSOE 107 (91-120) and Vox 65. The PP-PSOE gap is about 27 seats, and the PSOE upper bound (120) is below the PP lower bound (120 at the edge). https://sumomento.com/en/encuestas - [2026-10-07] Vote-Scope's model projects PP 136 (122-151), PSOE 104 (91-118) and Vox 65. It gives the PP+Vox majority as above 99% in its main model and 88% in its experimental one. The Objective's Votómetro (3 Oct) has PP 140, PSOE 107. https://vote-scope.com/en/spain/ - [2026-09-21] Polling Forecast's best bet was PP 137, PSOE 110 and Vox 64. It notes that the CIS September barómetro put PSOE first (31.0% vs PP 25.5%), the main official counter-signal. Other pollsters using CIS fieldwork (Target Point, Ateneo del Dato, 1-4 Sep) had PP ahead (139 vs 113; 127 vs 112 seats). https://www.pollingforecast.com/es ; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2026_Spanish_general_election - [2026-10-11] A Hamalgama Métrica comparison shows PP 33.4% (144 seats) against PSOE 25.3% (103). The gap narrowed slightly from 8.5 to 8.1 points since 13 Sep. The PSOE-plus-Sumar-Podemos total was flat at about 34%. https://www.democrata.es/encuestas/elecciones-generales/encuesta-elecciones-generales-hamalgama-pp-vox-212-escanos-psoe/ - [2026-10-05] Contextual risks to the poll lead: the left is still organising. Sumar's parties plan to launch a "Frente Amplio" platform on 17 Oct (El Independiente says the joint list would be confirmed by 16 Oct). Polls so far do not model it. Per 40dB, a joint left list would reduce PSOE's own seat count (112 to 106), which matters here because only PSOE seats count. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Spanish_general_election ; https://www.elindependiente.com/espana/2026/10/09/las-primeras-encuestas-tras-la-convocatoria-de-generales-deja-a-pp-y-vox-en-una-mayoria-absoluta-de-202-escanos/ - [2023-07-23] Track record: in 2023 polls overstated the PP lead and its seat total. PP won 137 seats (33.1%) and PSOE 121 (31.7%). PSOE finished about 14 seats behind PP, so the PP vote lead was 1.4 points. A systematic miss of this size would be about 3-5 points smaller than today's 6-8 point lead. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Spanish_general_election ; https://es.statista.com/estadisticas/1401360/elecciones-generales-de-espana-2019-2023-porcentajede-votos-por-partido - [Historical] Reference class: in Spain's 2019 (April and November) and 2023 elections the party that led the polling averages finished first in seats in each case, as far as I can tell. In 2019 that was PSOE, which won 123 and then 120 seats. In 2023 it was PP (137 vs 121), despite a narrower margin than polled. In 2011 PP won 186 seats to PSOE's 110. This is not a systematic dataset of upsets. https://es.statista.com/estadisticas/1378251/elecciones-generales-de-espana-2019-porcentaje-de-votos-por-partido-abril-y-noviembre - [2026-10-11] Timing: the election is on 29 Nov, one day before the market closes (30 Nov). Spanish results are normally known on election night. The resolution fallback date is 30 Nov 2027. The date is fixed unless the decree is changed, and I found no sign of that. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/5/spanish-prime-minister-pedro-sanchez-announces-snap-election-amid-housing-crisis BOTTOM LINE: The outside view is unfavourable for PSOE. Every independent poll and model has PP ahead by roughly 3-9 points, or about 20-45 seats, and the PP's seat lead is large relative to the 2023 polling miss. The only contrary signals are the CIS and a partisan PSOE poll, and the campaign is only just starting (13 Nov). NOT FOUND: A betting-market or Polymarket-style price for this election (deliberately not searched), and any formal expert forecast other than the poll-based models above. I also found no systematic hit-rate dataset for Spanish polling leaders, and no post-call polls that include the Frente Amplio list.

YES means: PSOE (including PSC) wins more Congress seats than any other party in the 29 Nov 2026 election. - [2026-10-08] The CIS housing barometer is the strongest public-poll signal for YES. It is an official poll of 6,019 CATI interviews with a ±1.3% margin of error. On the filtered "decided voters" basis it has PSOE 32.3%, PP 23.3% and Vox 14.3%. PSOE leads on direct intention (20% vs 14.8%) and on vote-plus-sympathy (23.7% vs 17.1%). It has the PSOE+Sumar total (29.2%) above PP+Vox (27.6%) on that basis. Caveat: the CIS says these are not a vote estimate. A commentary piece says CIS samples over-represent past PSOE voters. https://www.infobae.com/espana/2026/10/08/ha-salido-el-cis-el-psoe-ganaria-las-elecciones-pero-pp-y-vox-suman-mayoria-con-un-76-de-espanoles-a-favor-de-que-el-estado-intervenga-en-el-mercado-de-la-vivienda/ - [2026-10-09] The PSOE is already running a "vote útil" strategy in small and medium provinces, where parties to its left have little chance of a seat. It is negotiating a joint Senate list with the Frente Amplio but refuses to extend this to Congress. Mechanism: if left voters consolidate behind PSOE in provincial seat allocation, its seats could rise relative to its vote share. https://www.vozpopuli.com/espana/politica/el-psoe-negocia-con-el-frente-amplio-una-lista-conjunta-al-senado-para-disputar-la-mayoria-al-pp.html - [2026-10-10] Moncloa.com's analysis of polls finds that a joint Frente Amplio–Podemos list would win about 10 more seats than separate lists. It has PSOE losing only 3 of them, with 5 coming from PP, 1 from Vox and 1 from PNV. A joint left list therefore hurts PP more than PSOE, and a split left would help PSOE's own seat total. https://www.moncloa.com/2026/10/10/pacto-sumar-podemos-frente-amplio-escanos-3445782 - [2026-10-09] Demócrata's seat model from a 40dB-type vote split gives a different result. With a common left list, PP falls to 125 (from 132) and PSOE to 104 (from 110). It estimates that of the 14 seats gained, 7 come from PP and 6 from PSOE. The gap stays about 21 seats either way. The model therefore shows a left list narrowing the PP-PSOE gap by only about one seat. https://www.democrata.es/elecciones-generales-espana/encuestas-frente-amplio-cuantos-escanos-vale-debate-sobre-listas-izquierda/ - [2026-10-08] 40dB (El País/SER, n=800, fieldwork 7–8 Oct) is the best mainstream-pollster case. It has a 3.8-point gap, with PSOE 28.1% against PP 31.9%. Its PP seat range is 123–140, and the PSOE range of 105–117 is separate from it. The DYM poll has PSOE up 1.9 points. The nearest outer edge of both ranges is about 6 seats apart. https://democrata.es/elecciones-generales-espana/podemos-frente-amplio-escanos-unidad-elecciones-29n - [2026-10-06] Political scientist Simón told Time that if Sánchez keeps the campaign on housing, he could close the gap and "even compete" to finish as the largest party. Time also reports that the housing issue is meant to remobilise the left. This is an expert view, not a forecast. https://time.com/article/2026/10/05/spain-snap-elections-sanchez-housing-crisis/ - [2026-10-07/08] Housing salience is high. The CIS found 87% concerned. An 87-year-old evicted woman, Maricarmen Abascal, died on 7 Oct, and unions called a general strike for 11 Nov. The Government re-approved both housing decrees on 7 Oct, with minor changes. Polls so far (fieldwork 5–9 Oct) predate the death and the strike. https://www.infobae.com/espana/2026/10/08/ha-salido-el-cis-el-psoe-ganaria-las-elecciones-pero-pp-y-vox-suman-mayoria-con-un-76-de-espanoles-a-favor-de-que-el-estado-intervenga-en-el-mercado-de-la-vivienda/ - [2026-10-09] Minister Óscar Puente says PSOE internal polls show it as first force and he is "absolutely sure" of that. This is a partisan claim. The same Demócrata piece says the internal poll that triggered the election call had PSOE second. https://www.democrata.es/en/general-elections-spain/bridge-the-psoe-first-force-on-november-29-according-to-its-internal-surveys/ - [2026-10-11] PolitPro's weighted average (8 Oct) has PP 32.2%, PSOE 26.6%, and a 98% to 2% PP victory probability. The latter is the model's output, not mine. The PSOE trend is -0.5 over 30 days. Nothing there favours a PSOE-first outcome. https://politpro.eu/en/spain/election/parliament/2026 - [2026-10-11] Hamalgama has the PSOE-PP gap narrowing from 8.5 to 8.1 points since September, and PSOE regaining 2 seats to 103. Target Point shows a similar small PSOE recovery. The trend is right-way but small. The same Hamalgama poll has Sumar+Podemos falling from 10 to 7 seats, so some left vote is moving to PSOE. https://www.democrata.es/encuestas/elecciones-generales/encuesta-elecciones-generales-hamalgama-pp-vox-212-escanos-psoe/ - [2026-10-11] The 2019 precedent shows how PSOE can gain from consolidation. In April 2019 it won 123 seats (38 more than before), mostly at the expense of Unidas Podemos. Then in Nov 2019 it kept first place with 120. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/April_2019_Spanish_general_election BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES path is a decisive left consolidation behind PSOE as housing dominates the campaign, together with a split Sumar/Podemos left and a CIS-like environment, which would close a gap of about 3.8–6 points to near zero. It needs a polling miss and late swing larger than any currently visible, since only the CIS and partisan sources show PSOE ahead. NOT FOUND: Any non-partisan poll since 5 Oct putting PSOE ahead on seats. Post-announcement GAD3 and Sigma Dos seat data. Any poll fielded after the 7 Oct eviction death or the strike call. A confirmed Frente Amplio–Podemos list decision.

YES means: PSOE (with PSC counted as PSOE) wins strictly more Congress seats than any other party in the 29 Nov 2026 general election. This report argues for NO. - [2026-10-11] PolitPro's Monte Carlo model gives PP 98%, PSOE 1% and Vox under 1% for winning. Its trend is PP 32.3% and PSOE 26.5%, a 5.8-point gap. Its seat projection is PP 127, PSOE 105 and Vox 73. Fetched. Caveat: this is a poll-based model, not an independent forecast. https://politpro.eu/en/spain - [2026-10-11] The same PolitPro page lists seven polls with fieldwork from 1 to 8 Oct, all with PP ahead. The PP lead ranges from 3.8 points (40dB, 31.9 vs 28.1) to 7.9 points (Data10, 34.0 vs 26.1). PSOE's best result among them is Ateneo del Dato's 27.5%, which still trails PP's 33.2%. Fetched. https://politpro.eu/en/spain - [2026-10-09] Ara's roundup says PP leads "in all the polls" except the CIS. It lists private-poll seat totals for PP of 132 (Ipsos, June), 133 (GAD3, September), 143 (SocioMétrica) and 145-147 (NC Report, August). PSOE's highest total in any of these is 112, from 40dB. The only PSOE-first poll, the CIS September barometer, was fielded 1-4 Sep, before the election call and the housing decree defeat. Fetched. https://en.ara.cat/politics/what-do-the-polls-for-the-spanish-elections-of-november-29-say_1_5874100.html - [2026-10-09] Ara reports a PSOE recovery in the latest polls, but only a small one. Data10 (for Okdiario) has PSOE up 10 seats on August but only 0.7 points in vote intention. Even the post-housing-vote bounce leaves PSOE at 106-112 seats against PP at 132 or more. Fetched. https://en.ara.cat/politics/what-do-the-polls-for-the-spanish-elections-of-november-29-say_1_5874100.html - [2026-10-08] The CIS housing barometer is the main YES-side signal, but its headline gap is small once you read the detail. Its vote-plus-sympathy figures (PSOE 23.7%, PP 17.1%) are raw numbers, with no estimate of how many respondents will turn out. It also fits a pattern: critics argue CIS samples over-represent past PSOE voters (19% of the electorate but 27% of the sample in one analysis, 2019 recall), and that its estimates have tended to overstate the left. Opinion piece, not a primary dataset. https://www.infobae.com/espana/2026/10/08/ha-salido-el-cis-el-psoe-ganaria-las-elecciones-pero-pp-y-vox-suman-mayoria-con-un-76-de-espanoles-a-favor-de-que-el-estado-intervenga-en-el-mercado-de-la-vivienda/ ; https://lareview.substack.com/p/10-reflexiones-sobre-el-cis - [2026-10-08] Demócrata's CIS recalculation, the most PSOE-friendly seat estimate found, is still PP 132-133 seats and PSOE 120-121 in its 67% and 70% turnout scenarios. PP stays first even there, by 12 seats. It is Demócrata's own arithmetic, not a CIS projection. https://www.democrata.es/en/center-of-surveys-and-electoral-polls/general-elections/general-elections-survey-the-recalculation-of-the-cis-places-the-psoe-1-9-points-behind-the-pp-and-gives-194-seats-to-the-pp-and-vox/ - [2026-10-09] The 2023 miss was real but only partial. Wikipedia's 2023 page says PP "fell short of opinion polling expectations", yet PP still won first place 137 to 121. The 2024 EU election showed the same pattern: PP's polled landslide was smaller in the result, but PP still won (22 seats, 34.2%, vs PSOE 20 seats, 30.2%). The 2026 regional results also had PP first in Aragón (26 seats vs PSOE 18) and Castilla y León (33 vs 30). The PP-first pattern has held in the elections found, each time with a margin smaller than polled. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Spanish_general_election ; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_European_Parliament_election_in_Spain ; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Aragonese_regional_election ; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Castilian-Leonese_regional_election - [2026-10-11] The left-unity mechanism works against PSOE on the criterion that counts. Podemos is holding primaries on 14-15 Oct. The Frente Amplio (Sumar, IU, Más Madrid, Comuns) is due to launch on 17 Oct, and both sides report talks. 40dB shows a joint list lifting the far left from 7-9 to 15-19 seats, and per the colleague report the PSOE seat count falls when the lists join (112 to 106). Under the rules, only PSOE and PSC seats count, so left consolidation does not help the PSOE total. Fetched search snippets. https://www.democrata.es/elecciones-generales-espana/podemos-frente-amplio-escanos-unidad-elecciones-29n/ ; https://theobjective.com/espana/politica/2026-10-11/podemos-frente-amplio-salto-20-escanos-dos-bandos-juntos/ - [2026-10-05] PP's total benefits from consolidating the right-wing vote. Vox is already at about 18-19% and is not shown cannibalising PP. SocioMétrica and 40dB both have PP at or above 31.9%. The Olive Press average of eight polls has PP 33.3% vs PSOE 25.7%, roughly 142 seats to 104. PSOE would need to close roughly a 6-8 point gap in under seven weeks, which is more than any 2023 shift. https://www.theolivepress.es/spain-news/2026/10/05/who-will-win-spains-snap-election-on-november-29-and-what-do-the-five-main-parties-stand-for/ - [2026-10-06] Resolution technicalities: the tie-break and the coalition rules do not create a NO route for PSOE beyond PP simply winning more seats. Only seats won by PSOE/PSC count. A joint left list would not credit PSOE with Sumar or Podemos seats, and the election date (29 Nov) falls one day before the 30 Nov market close. The status quo (no change to the PP lead) means NO. A separate timing risk is small: if the date moved, the "Other" fallback is 30 Nov 2027. https://www.lines.com/prediction-markets/politics/global-elections/spain-general-election-winner BOTTOM LINE: Every non-CIS poll and model has PP ahead by 4-8 points and 20-45 seats, and PSOE's best private projections (112 seats) are well below PP's lowest (127-132). PSOE would need a historic polling miss, larger than 2023 and 2024, plus a decisive campaign swing within seven weeks, while left unity on the Sumar/Podemos side does not add to PSOE's own count. NOT FOUND: Official results, since the vote has not yet happened. A fetched primary page from infoelectoral.interior.gob.es. Any post-call GAD3 or CIS seat projection, or polls that model a joint Frente Amplio-Podemos list. A systematic hit-rate dataset for Spanish poll leaders.