Will average **gas prices** be below $3.60 by Dec 31, 2026?

- [2026-10-11] The AAA national average for regular is $4.3585. The same page shows $4.3669 yesterday, $4.3697 a week ago, $4.2950 a month ago and $3.0895 a year ago. The record regular high is $5.0165 (2022-06-14), and the diesel record is $6.5276 (2026-09-22). https://gasprices.aaa.com/ - [2026-10-11] The AAA price is about $0.76 above the $3.60 threshold. The cheapest states are still well above $3.60: Georgia is $3.82 (10/10), Indiana $3.92 and Louisiana $3.94. https://gasprices.aaa.com/todays-state-averages/ - [2026-10-08] AAA's weekly release says the national average fell 5 cents on the week to $4.36 but is the highest ever for this time of year. It is the first October with the average above $4. Crude is back above $90 after briefly dipping into the $80s. (Fetched page returned 403; content is from the search snippet.) https://gasprices.aaa.com/pump-prices-remain-at-record-highs-for-autumn/ - [2026-10-01] AAA: September averaged $4.33, a record and 50 cents above the previous September record of $3.83 (2023). The average dipped to $4.41 on 10/1. https://gasprices.aaa.com/national-average-dips-following-record-setting-september/ - [2026-09-24] AAA: the national average was $4.48 on 9/24, a record for the time of year. It cited lingering volatility in the Strait of Hormuz and high crude prices. https://gasprices.aaa.com/national-average-climbs-nearly-5-cents-since-last-week/ - [2026-10-06] LendingTree: $4.37 on 10/6, 2.5% below the recent peak of $4.48. It calls that peak "in May", which conflicts with AAA's 9/24 report of $4.48, so the peak date is unclear. Diesel was $6.32. https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-cards/study/us-gas-prices/ - [2026-10-08] Crude is high. Oilprice.com shows Brent near $104.7 and WTI near $91.85, with RBOB gasoline futures near $3.295/gal. Its 10/8 headline: oil jumped about 5% as Iran stepped up attacks on Hormuz tankers. The G7 agreed a 100M-barrel release, and observers said it is mostly part of the March 400M-barrel plan and already priced in. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest since 1982–83. Hurricane Isaias reportedly shut in 71% of Gulf oil output, and Big Oil is shutting in Gulf production. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Jumps-2-as-Iran-Steps-Up-Attacks-on-Hormuz-Tankers.html - [2026-09-24] Brent closed at $106.60 and WTI at $94.61. Reuters-sourced reports said US and Iranian negotiators were discussing a phased reopening of Hormuz. The US is blockading Iranian ports, and Iran is still attacking ships. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/oil-iran-crude-kepler-trump-us-un-.html - [2026-09-22] Per CNBC (via Oilprice), Iran offered to reopen Hormuz within 7 days if the US eased its blockade. Brent briefly fell to $98 and WTI to $91. Prices later rebounded. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Tumbles-3-as-Iran-Floats-Hormuz-Reopening-Within-a-Week.html - [2026-06-25] The AAA average was $3.92 on 6/25, the low point after falling five straight weeks, with WTI at $70.34. It was never below $3.60 in the window I found. That fits the low-$3.9 area on the market's opening date (3/26: $3.981). https://gasprices.aaa.com/national-gas-average-stays-below-4-for-second-week/ - [2026-10-08] A third-party forecaster (global-energy-flow.com, model-based) gives a December AAA range of $3.80 (de-escalation) to $6.10 (escalation), with a base case of $4.60. It is not a primary source. https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/united-states/forecast/ - [2026-10-01] Finder: 2026 annual average so far is $3.84, and the price is up about 50% from $2.96 on 2026-02-26, before the war. https://www.finder.com/economics/gas-prices BOTTOM LINE: The AAA average is $4.36, down only modestly from record autumn levels, and it has not been below $3.60 at any point since the market opened. Crude is still at $90–105 with Hormuz disrupted, so a Yes needs a roughly 76-cent fall in under 3 months, most plausibly from a firm Hormuz reopening deal plus winter-blend and seasonal declines. NOT FOUND: A readable copy of AAA's 10/8 full release (403 error); scheduled dated events before 12/31 such as a firm Iran deal date or an OPEC+ meeting; any news from 10/9–10/11 beyond AAA's price data; EIA STEO gasoline forecasts for Q4.

- [2026-10-10] The AAA national average for regular was $4.3669. That is about $0.77 above the $3.60 threshold, and the figure is from AAA's own state-averages page. https://gasprices.aaa.com/todays-state-averages/ - [2026-10-08] AAA says the national average fell 5 cents on the week to $4.36 and is the highest ever for this time of year. It is the first October with a national average above $4. Crude is back above $90/bbl after briefly dipping into the $80s. https://newsroom.aaa.com/2026/10/pump-prices-remain-at-record-highs-for-autumn/ (from the search snippet; the page itself returned 403 when fetched) - [2026-10-01] AAA reported September 2026 averaged $4.33, a record that beat the previous September record of $3.83 set in 2023. The price on 10/1 was $4.41, down from $4.48 a week earlier. https://gasprices.aaa.com/national-average-dips-following-record-setting-september/ - [2026-10-06] The EIA October STEO forecasts retail gasoline at $3.91 for 2026 and $3.56 for 2027. It says 2027 gasoline will average "just under $3.60", and that is a full-year average. Brent is forecast at $105/bbl in 4Q26 (raised $14 from the September STEO) and $84 in 2027. The EIA assumes Middle East flows stay constrained through 4Q26. September gasoline averaged $4.35. A full-year 2027 average below $3.60 implies prices only reach the low-$3.50s some time in 2027, not by December 2026. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf - [2026-10-06] EIA expects diesel to stay above $6/gal in October and then fall gradually. The EIA's own framing is a slow decline, not a collapse. https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press593.php - [2026-10-08] Brent bounced to near $106 after Trump said the US would not strike Iran before the midterms. The Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruption are ongoing. https://ketk.com/news/texas/average-gas-price-falls-across-texas-despite-rise-in-oil-prices - [2026-10-05/06] A Newsweek report says state fuel-tax suspensions in Georgia and Ohio and a G7 oil release of 100 million barrels pushed the national average from $4.48 to $4.36. Those are one-off policy moves, and the federal tax is only deferred until 2027. https://www.newsweek.com/map-shows-where-gas-prices-are-falling-as-states-suspend-fuel-taxes-12523515 - [2026-06-25] Historical analogue from this same year. AAA showed $3.91 (the text also says $3.918) after five straight weekly declines from $4.507 a month earlier, with WTI at $70. Prices then re-rose to $4.48 by 9/24 as the crisis re-escalated. A fall of about 60 cents in a month has happened this year, but only when crude fell about 25%. https://gasprices.aaa.com/national-gas-average-stays-below-4-for-second-week/ - [2026-03-18] Before the war the national average was about $2.99 (about $2.92 a month earlier, $3.84 on 3/18). Gasoline rose about $0.85 in under three weeks after hostilities began on Feb 28. https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/international-issues/the-eia-revises-its-short-term-energy-outlook-forecast/ - [2026-01-06] GasBuddy's January forecast of a $2.97 average for 2026 and $2.83 for December missed badly because of the war shock. Pre-war forecasts have little track record this year. https://www.nbcnews.com/business/energy/gas-prices-2026-gasbuddy-report-rcna252580 - [2026-10-01] Finder, using AAA data, says the all-time weekly range since 2018 is $1.50–$4.76. Its 8-year average is $3.07, and this year's low was $2.81 on 1/8/26. https://www.finder.com/economics/gas-prices - Base-rate note (general knowledge, not fetched): after the 2022 spike, AAA fell from $5.02 (6/14/22) to about $3.70 by late December 2022. That is a drop of about $1.30 in 6 months, with a cumulative fall of about 25–30%. Drops of roughly $0.77 (18%) in 12 weeks occurred in 2022, when crude fell sharply, but they are rare. BOTTOM LINE: The price needs to fall about 18% in under 12 weeks, from $4.37 to below $3.60. The EIA's latest official forecast does not reach that level until 2027, and its crude forecast was just revised up. That makes the outside view lean strongly NO unless a Hormuz settlement collapses crude prices quickly. Such sharp drops have precedent in 2022 and in June 2026, but both followed large crude declines. NOT FOUND: AAA's own page (403). EIA's monthly gasoline path for Dec 2026 (the table was cut off in the fetched PDF). Futures-based or analyst forecasts specific to Dec 2026. Other-venue or sibling-strike prices (not searched, as instructed).

YES means: AAA's national average for regular gas prints below $3.60 on at least one day from 2026-03-23 through 2026-12-31. It has not done so yet. - [2026-10-05] The EIA says Brent was at $72 on 7/1, after the June 17 MOU raised Hormuz flows. Brent then ran $79–98 and passed $100 on 9/9. It peaked at $109 on 9/15 and averaged about $104 in the last two weeks of Q3. The point for YES: the rally is a geopolitical premium, not a physical shortage, and it has reversed before. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68245 - [2026-10-05] The EIA says gasoline crack spreads fell in the second half of Q3 even though they were still elevated. US refinery utilization averaged 95%, and gasoline stocks were 7% below the 5-year average on 9/25. This is a mechanism for pump prices to fall faster than crude: margins are normalizing and supply is not tight. The weaker spreads partly explain why RBOB (~$3.30 on 10/8) sits far below the $4.36 pump price. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68245 - [2026-10-07] Kpler data cited by Al Jazeera put Gulf oil flows, excluding Iran, above 81% of pre-war levels in September. Wider Middle East crude exports topped pre-war levels on 14 days that month. Physical supply has largely recovered, so a formal deal would mostly remove a risk premium. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/7/us-sets-new-demands-for-iran-deal-what-are-they - [2026-10-07] The US position has softened. Vance asked for only a "meaningful" cut in enrichment, which analysts read as less than the earlier demand for zero. Araghchi said on 10/4 that negotiations are still possible. Iran's seven-day Hormuz-reopening plan was rejected by Trump but is still on the table. This is the main path to YES. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/7/us-sets-new-demands-for-iran-deal-what-are-they - [2026-09-24] Reuters, via Yahoo: a phased deal would have Tehran reopen Hormuz while Washington lifts its blockade, a sequence similar to the June MOU. Trump said he thinks a deal could come after the 11/3 midterms. That timing gives about 8 weeks from early November to 12/31 for crude and retail prices to fall. https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/us-iran-discuss-phased-deal-161727983.html - [2026-08-05] Precedent from this year, using Barchart: when AP and Axios reported a draft 60-day Hormuz accord, September WTI fell 4.7% in one day, to a 3-week low, and RBOB hit a 4.75-month low. Futures react within hours to deal headlines. https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/progress-toward-reopening-strait-hormuz-191655557.html - [2026-06-19] After the June 17 MOU, Axi's Lacerda expected Brent at $75–82 and noted it was down about 36% from the peak. That level matched the AAA low of $3.92 on 6/25 (WTI ~$70, per colleagues). The June analogue implies that, with Brent in the high $70s, pump prices would settle around $3.9. That is still above $3.60, so a deal alone may not be enough. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/19/oil-prices-wti-brent-crude-us-iran-deal-strait-hormuz-shipping-recovery.html - [2026-09-17 to 2026-10-10] GasBuddy's De Haan has called both directions accurately this year. His media page lists a recent claim that a US-Iran deal could pull the average under $3, and another that it could fall under $4. I could not verify the date of the sub-$4 item, and AAA was at $4.48 on 9/24. This shows analysts treat prices as highly deal-sensitive. https://patrickdehaan.com/media.html - [2026-07-23] The decline this year began from a $4.57 peak (De Haan) and ran 8 straight weeks, ending in mid-July. A fall of that length is the template for YES. Repeating it from $4.36 and covering $0.76+ would need about 8–10 consecutive weeks, so a deal would have to arrive by roughly late October or early November. https://x.com/GasBuddyGuy/status/2078874796281020627 - [2026-10-08] RBOB futures were near $3.30 per gallon (colleagues' Oilprice snapshot) while the retail price is $4.36. That spread of about $1.06 is above the typical wholesale-to-retail margin plus taxes. This suggests some downward drift even at current crude, if futures hold. I did not check the retail-margin figure against a primary source. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Jumps-2-as-Iran-Steps-Up-Attacks-on-Hormuz-Tankers.html - [2026-10-11] Seasonal tailwinds: winter-blend gasoline typically cuts pump prices $0.10–0.30/gal from late September through November. Demand also falls after summer. These factors add to any drop from crude or tax relief. https://www.gasbuddy.com/go/summer-blend-and-winter-blend-gasoline BOTTOM LINE: The most likely YES path has five parts. The US and Iran sign a phased Hormuz and blockade deal by early November. Brent falls into the $70s. Winter blend and the state tax holidays add 10–30 cents of relief. Retail prices then fall by about $0.76 in under 8 weeks. The June 2026 precedent shows this is possible, but that deal only took AAA to $3.92, so YES likely needs a deeper crude drop or a bigger margin collapse than in June. NOT FOUND: Any signed or scheduled Hormuz deal. Dated news from 10/9–10/11 on the talks. A Dec 2026 RBOB or crude futures curve. A primary source for the claim that retail margins are unusually wide.

YES means: AAA's national average for regular gasoline is posted below $3.60 on any day from March 23 through Dec 31, 2026. The NO case below argues that this does not happen. - [2026-10-11] Iran's Deputy FM Gharibabadi said the Iran–Oman Hormuz routing agreement "does not provide for an immediate opening." He said reopening depends entirely on the US meeting its obligations, and that Tehran will keep controlling the strait. This is a diplomatic dead-end the day the question is being priced. The same page reports an Oct 11 IRGC claim that a supertanker hit a mine in Hormuz and a deadly attack on Riyadh airport. https://tass.com/world/2200593 - [2026-09-24] A June 17 US–Iran memorandum of understanding set the same swap now under discussion, navigation for the blockade. It "quickly collapsed into renewed fighting," and CNBC said it was unclear what differs this time. A deal that has already failed once this year is weak support for a Yes by December. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/oil-iran-crude-kepler-trump-us-un-.html - [2026-08-10] Even with Brent at $84–88 in August, a deal that Bessent called imminent had still not been announced. Iran's spokesman said the blockade had to lift first. Trump called the talks "only semi-negotiating." Negotiations have repeatedly missed their own timelines. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/10/oil-prices-today-brent-wti-hormuz-trump-iran.html - [2026-06-02] Analysts said gasoline lags crude on the way down even after a deal. S&P Global's Joswick said an announcement brings an "instant drop in crude" that is not passed to gasoline while supply stays tight. Rystad said tanker flows and refinery runs need time to recover. Gulf producers need weeks to restart. De Haan said normalization is multi-month to multi-year and pre-war prices won't return until mid-to-late 2027. A deal signed in late October would therefore not necessarily put the pump price under $3.60 by Dec 31. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/iran-war-gas-prices-oil/ - [2026 summer, approx. June] The pump price only fell to $3.99, and later to a low of about $3.92, after a signed US–Iran deal and resumed Strait transits. That is the best test case this year. De Haan said then that prices "should head toward $3.70." They bottomed above $3.90 and never reached $3.60, which suggests a floor well above the threshold even in the best case. https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/banking/article/when-will-gas-prices-go-down-a-year-or-more-for-prices-to-fully-recover-154506877.html - [2026-10-03] RBOB front-month futures were $3.31 on Oct 3, with a 90-day range of $2.76–$3.59. The $2.76 low came in the period when AAA bottomed near $3.92. In July, RBOB near $2.95 corresponded to AAA at about $3.84, a gap of roughly $0.90. Getting AAA under $3.60 needs RBOB near $2.65–2.70, below the 90-day low. That is about 20% below the current level. https://fueldataportal.com/data/rbob-gasoline-price - [2026-10-07] EIA spot data show NY Harbor conventional gasoline at $3.33 and Gulf Coast at $3.52. Both have been flat to down over the last five readings, so wholesale prices are not collapsing. Retail at $4.36 still carries a margin well above normal, and stations are known to cut slowly ("rockets and feathers"). The wholesale-to-retail gap makes the move to $3.60 a slow process. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm - [2026-05-24] A Benzinga/De Haan item said prices stay "well above $4" until a deal is signed and many ships transit. AAA was $4.515 then. The Kalshi crowd put a 50% chance on $2.80 by end-2026, and the AAA record shows that was badly wrong. Pre-October optimism about gas prices has repeatedly failed. https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/05/52764828/gas-prices-plummet-strait-of-hormuz-kalshi-bettors - [2026-04-21] Veteran fuel analyst Kloza said he does not expect prices to revert to pre-war levels this year even if Hormuz normalizes almost at once. The CBS April piece also gave an "under the most optimistic scenarios" settle point of about $3.50 by year-end. Even optimists put $3.60 at the edge of the best case. https://www.axios.com/2026/04/21/gas-prices-high-iran-strait-hormuz - [2026-10-11] The seasonal tailwind is smaller than it looks. GasBuddy puts the usual fall decline at 10–30 cents from mid-September through late November. The winter-grade fuel allowance was also pulled forward to Sept 1 this year, so part of that gain is already in the current price. Seasonality alone covers at most a third of the $0.76 gap. https://www.gasbuddy.com/go/what-summer-gas - [2026-10-11] The US is in hurricane season through November. Hurricane Isaias reportedly shut in Gulf output (the 10/8 report) and killed four people, with hundreds of thousands without power. A hurricane squeeze can reverse a seasonal decline. Another route to NO is a re-escalation, which Knightsbridge (October note) says could push WTI back above $100. https://www.gasbuddy.com/go/summer-blend-and-winter-blend-gasoline - [2026-10-11] The resolution wording is literal and one-way. A single AAA daily print below $3.60 resolves Yes, and the 3/26–10/11 period has had none (lowest about $3.92). There is no rounding, since AAA prints to the tenth of a cent. State tax suspensions (Georgia, Ohio) already helped the national price and cannot be repeated for a further large cut. https://gasprices.aaa.com/ BOTTOM LINE: The NO case is that a fall of about $0.76 in 81 days needs a credible Hormuz deal and a collapse in RBOB futures to roughly $2.65. The one clean test this year, a signed deal and resumed transits, bottomed near $3.92, and Iran said on Oct 11 that it has no intention of reopening the strait for now. Status quo plus pass-through lag, thin inventories and a lagging retail margin all point to NO. NOT FOUND: AAA's own Oct 8 release (403). Any Dec-dated RBOB futures curve. The EIA's monthly Dec 2026 gasoline path. The exact date of the June deal's collapse. A dated Oct 9–11 gasoline price move beyond the AAA figures already reported.