Will Ohio’s annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 677,400 jobs?

- [2026-10-11] The BLS series SMS39000003000000001 (Ohio manufacturing, seasonally adjusted, thousands) reads Jan 677.7, Feb 677.8, Mar 676.2, Apr 680.3, May 681.2, Jun 683.8, Jul 689.0, Aug 688.3 (preliminary). The Jan–Aug mean is about 681.8, which is about 4.4k above the 677.4 threshold. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMS39000003000000001 - [2026-10-11] The same BLS page lists 2025 monthly values: 675.1, 678.8, 678.8, 678.9, 678.4, 677.3, 675.5, 675.8, 674.3, 678.2, 679.4, 679.3. Their simple average is about 677.5, so the 677.4 threshold is probably the 2025 annual average (my inference). The question is therefore roughly whether 2026 is above 2025. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMS39000003000000001 - [2026-09-18] The August state data was released on this date. BLS shows Ohio manufacturing up 1.8% over 12 months in August (up 2.0% in July). https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/ohio.htm - [2026-09-18] ODJFS data, as reported by Policy Matters Ohio, showed manufacturing down 700 jobs in August, with total nonfarm up 2,100. Even so, Ohio manufacturing is up 12,500 jobs from August 2025 to August 2026, according to the JEC state update. https://policymattersohio.org/news/2026/09/18/ohio-sees-sluggish-job-growth-continued-labor-force-contractions/ and https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/vendor/_accounts/JEC-R/employment/state/Ohio%20Employment%20Update.html - [2026-10-02] Nationally, September manufacturing rose 9,000 and is up 72,000 since a low in December 2025. FRED's national manufacturing series (MANEMP) is at 12,652k for September, up from 12,595k in May. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm and https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP - [2026-10-02/05] About 1,400 workers were laid off on Sept 30 at the former Navistar plant in Springfield, OH. The buyer, Roshel, says it plans to rehire and expand over time. This is a small share of Ohio's ~688k manufacturing jobs, though it would show up in the September or October data. https://www.wosu.org/politics-government/2026-10-05/a-gut-punch-in-ohio-nearly-1-400-laid-off-at-truck-factory-just-days-before-trump-rally - [2026-10-11] AP reports factory layoffs in Ohio and elsewhere tied to tariffs. It says national manufacturing employment is still below its January 2025 level, despite 2026 gains. https://www.ksat.com/news/politics/2026/10/11/republicans-face-midterm-backlash-from-factory-workers-squeezed-out-of-jobs-by-trumps-tariffs/ - [2026-10-20] Next scheduled release: FRED lists Oct 20, 2026 for the September state data, which will add the September Ohio manufacturing figure and revise August. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=pH9P - [2026-07] The Ohio LMI report for June 2026 showed Ohio manufacturing gaining 2,200 jobs in the month. The year-over-year changes it showed for individual metro areas were small. https://ohiolmi.com/_docs/ces/lmr.pdf - Structural note: the 2026 annual average is not yet published. BLS annual-average state data usually arrives with the early-2027 benchmark revision, which would revise the 2025 and 2026 monthly figures. The question's deadline is April 30, 2027. The exact release date was not confirmed. BOTTOM LINE: With 8 months of data averaging about 681.8k, and the latest readings at 688–689k, the remaining months would need to average well below about 668k to bring the 2026 average under 677.4k. The main residual risks are the early-2027 benchmark revision, which could shift the level, and any sharp fall in the Sept–Dec data. NOT FOUND: The September 2026 Ohio manufacturing figure (due Oct 20), the BLS annual-average 2026 figure and its release date, and the exact BLS 2025 annual-average figure. The BLS schedule page could not be fetched.

- [2026-10-11] BLS series SMS39000003000000001 (Ohio manufacturing, seasonally adjusted, thousands) for Jan–Aug 2026 reads 677.7, 677.8, 676.2, 680.3, 681.2, 683.8, 689.0 and 688.3 (Aug is preliminary). The Jan–Aug mean is about 681.8, which is about 4.4k above the 677.4 threshold. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMS39000003000000001 - [2026-10-11] The 2025 SA monthly values on the same BLS page range from 674.3 to 679.4, and their mean is about 677.5. The 677.4 threshold is therefore essentially the 2025 annual average, so the question asks whether 2026 beats 2025. The page shows the SA series. BLS's published annual average is based on NSA data, which the monthly SA values may not match exactly. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMS39000003000000001 - [2026-10-11] Arithmetic: for the 2026 average to exceed about 677.4, the Sep–Dec months would need to average below about 668.8 if the Jan–Aug figures hold. That is roughly 20k below August, and no month since the 2020 shock has been that low. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMS39000003000000001 - [2026-09-22] Ohio's Aug 2026 release (ODJFS) shows manufacturing down 700 over the month and up 12,500 over the year (durable goods +11,900). Ohio's total payroll growth is slowing: +2,100 in August, and July was revised down. https://www.vindy.com/news/business-news/2026/09/ohios-unemployment-rate-falls-to-3-3-in-august/ - [2026-09-18] Policy Matters Ohio reports that July's job estimate was revised down by 3,400. Statewide job growth averaged +3,163 per month in Jan–Aug 2026 but only about +2,200 over the last three months. Goods producers drove the August gain. https://policymattersohio.org/news/2026/09/18/ohio-sees-sluggish-job-growth-continued-labor-force-contractions/ - [2026-08-28] BLS's preliminary state benchmark (March 2026) had an average absolute revision of 0.4% across states, smaller than last year's 0.7%. Final benchmark data come with the January 2027 state release in March 2027. They will revise NSA data from April 2025 to December 2026 and SA data from January 2022 to December 2026, so the Ohio manufacturing level could shift. This is a risk to the 2026 level, not to the fixed threshold. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/presae_08282026.htm - [2026-09] Historical reference class: Ohio SA manufacturing was about 686–688k in 2016, 700k in 2018, 649–660k in 2020, 688k in 2023, 681k in 2024 and 677.5k in 2025. Year-over-year changes in annual averages have run only about 0–1% outside the 2020 shock. The 2025 decline was about −0.9%. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/SMS39000003000000001 - [2026-10] Nationally, BLS CES manufacturing (SA) rose through 2026: 12,582k in January, 12,628k in July, and 12,643k in August (preliminary). This is a supportive backdrop. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES3000000001 - [2026-10] FRED NSA series OHMFGN shows Jan 674.4, Feb 676.3, Mar 675.8, Apr 680.3 and May 682.0 for 2026. NSA values are also at or above the threshold from April on. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OHMFGN - [2026-08] The Kalshi contract shares the question's wording (Coinbase listing of KXOHMFGEMP-27APR30). I did not look at its price. The 2026 annual-average figure would first be published around the March 2027 benchmark release (BLS says March 2027 for states), before the 2027-04-30 close. https://www.coinbase.com/en-gb/predictions/event/KXOHMFGEMP-27APR30 BOTTOM LINE: The 2026 YTD average (about 681.8k) is well above 677.4, and the Sep–Dec months would need to average about 669k or lower to flip the result. The main risks are a sharp late-2026 fall (the August data point is preliminary) and the March 2027 benchmark revision, which could lower the whole 2026 level by roughly the 0.4–0.7% state-average revision size. NOT FOUND: any published forecast of Ohio's 2026 annual-average manufacturing employment; the Ohio-specific preliminary benchmark revision for manufacturing; the officially published 2025 annual average (the NSA annual-average column); September 2026 state data (due after Oct 11).

YES means: BLS's published 2026 annual-average Ohio manufacturing employment is above 677.4 thousand jobs. - [2026-10-11] I confirmed the monthly path on the FRED OHMFG table (last updated 2026-09-18). The 2025 values average 677.48k. The Jan–Aug 2026 mean is about 681.8k. Aug 688.3 and Jul 689.0 are the two highest readings since Sept 2023 (689.3). The most likely YES path is simply that Ohio holds near the current level. If Sep–Dec stay flat at 688.3, the 2026 average is about 683.8k, roughly 6.4k above the threshold. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/OHMFG.txt - [2026-10-11] Stress test: to fall to 677.4 or below, Sep–Dec would have to average about 668.8k, roughly 19.5k below August. The largest monthly swings in the 2023–2026 series are 4–9k (Oct 2023 −8.9, Jul 2026 +5.2, Oct 2024 −5.9). A four-month collapse of that size would be unprecedented outside 2008–09 and 2020. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/OHMFG.txt - [2026-08-28] The downside benchmark risk is bounded. The national preliminary March 2026 benchmark for manufacturing was −67k, or −0.5%. Applying −0.5% to the whole 2026 path (flat Sep–Dec at 688.3) gives about 680.4k, still above the threshold. The state release says the final benchmark lands in March 2027, before the April 30 close. It revises NSA data from April 2025 to December 2026. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prebmk.t01.htm and https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/presae_08282026.htm - [2026-08-28] The state-level preliminary benchmark averaged only 0.4% in absolute size, and the revisions were smaller than in the prior two years. The average signed revision across states was 0.0%. This release gives no Ohio manufacturing-specific figure in what I read. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/presae_08282026.htm - [2026-10-11] The 2025 base is already weak and already benchmarked. The 2025 monthly values I read are the post-benchmark vintage, a low of 674.3 in Sept 2025 followed by a rebound to 679.3 by Dec. The 2026 average only has to beat a 2025 average that was itself pulled down by the mid-2025 slump. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/OHMFG.txt - [2026-09-24] Hiring and investment signals are positive. PPG announced a $280M expansion in Delaware, OH with 100 new jobs, though operations don't start until 2028. Kreate's 542,000 sq ft Tiffin plant is expected to begin production in October 2026 with about 120 jobs. Earlier: Hikma 350 jobs (June 2026), OPMobility 500+ jobs (June 2026). These are small against 688k, but they point the same way. https://www.jobsohio.com/newsroom/ohio-success/ppg-picks-ohio-for-280m-expansion and https://www.plasticstaffing.com/100m-ohio-plastics-plant-talent-shortage and https://www.plasticsnews.com/end-markets/automotive/pn-opmobility-new-ohio-automotive-injection-molding-plant/ - [2026-09-08] National manufacturing demand is firm. JOLTS for July 2026 showed about 580k manufacturing openings against about 288k hires. The ISM August reading was 54.6, expansionary, with employment growth slowing. https://www.plasticstaffing.com/100m-ohio-plastics-plant-talent-shortage and https://www.americanactionforum.org/daily-dish/revisions-published-with-thankfully-little-fanfare/ - [2026-09-10] Ohio's own output is rising. The OBM monthly financial report says national manufacturing production was up 1.2% y/y in July. Seven of Ohio's top 10 industries increased production from June to July, led by primary metals, plus aerospace. https://archives.obm.ohio.gov/Files/Budget_and_Planning/Monthly_Financial_Report/2026-09-mfr.pdf - [2026-09-18] The Springfield layoffs (about 1,400 jobs at the former Navistar plant) are about 0.2% of Ohio manufacturing. Even if they all post in Sep or Oct, they take only about 0.4–1.4k off the annual average, depending on timing. That is far short of the roughly 4.4k cushion measured on the YTD mean, or the 6k+ cushion if levels stay flat. BOTTOM LINE: The 2026 YTD mean sits about 4.4k above the threshold, with the latest readings near 688k. YES needs only that Ohio holds roughly current levels. Even a benchmark cut the size of the national −0.5% would leave the annual average above 677.4k. NOT FOUND: Ohio-specific preliminary benchmark revision for manufacturing, the officially published 2025 NSA annual-average figure, the September 2026 Ohio figure (due Oct 20), and any third-party forecast of the 2026 annual average.

YES means: BLS's published 2026 annual-average Ohio manufacturing employment is above 677.4 thousand. - [2026-08-28] The national preliminary benchmark put March 2026 manufacturing at about −67,000, which is large. Total nonfarm was only −79,000. The source is the AAF summary of the BLS release. Scaled to Ohio's share of US manufacturing (about 5.3%), that is a downward revision of roughly 3–4k to the Ohio level. That is almost the whole 4.4k cushion in the Jan–Aug average. The state release publishes only total-nonfarm revisions, so there is no Ohio manufacturing figure. This is a scaling inference, and Ohio could differ. https://www.americanactionforum.org/daily-dish/revisions-published-with-thankfully-little-fanfare/ - [2026-08-28] The final state benchmark (March 2027) will replace NSA data from April 2025 to December 2026 and SA data from January 2022 to December 2026. The 677.4 threshold is fixed at the pre-benchmark 2025 level. A benchmark that lowers 2026 but leaves the threshold alone is a one-way asymmetry that favors NO. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/presae_08282026.htm - [2026-08-28] The state preliminary benchmark reports only total nonfarm by state, so the manufacturing-level revision for Ohio is unknowable until March 2027. The 0.4% average absolute revision across states was for total nonfarm. Sector series revise more, because the BLS says individual industry series show larger percentage revisions than the aggregates. A 1% manufacturing revision is about 6.8k, which exceeds the cushion. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prebmk.nr0.htm - [2026-08-28] Timing: the BLS says the state final benchmark and the annual-average data come in March 2027, before the April 30 close. A late release is not a plausible route to NO, but benchmark timing is when the 2026 figure becomes official. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/presae_08282026.htm - [2026-10-20] The sub-trend: the 689.0 July reading was revised or followed by a 688.3 preliminary August, and ODJFS had manufacturing down 700 in August. The Jan–Mar 2026 readings were about 676–678, below the threshold. Early 2026 snapshots showed Feb as 678.1 preliminary, later 677.8. Monthly revisions have moved in the 0.3–0.4k range. Ohio's Sept data are due Oct 20. https://www.bls.gov/sae/ - [2026-10-05] Sept 30 layoffs of about 1,400 workers at the Springfield plant, a WARN filing from International Motors (1,341 workers), come out of the Sept–Oct data. They are about 0.2% of the Ohio level, a small drag. They show the late-2026 risk is real but small. https://layoffiq.com/layoffs-in/oh - [2026-09] Q3 2025 evidence of manufacturing weakness: Ohio manufacturing had the largest quarterly net job decrease in Q3 2025, a loss of 5,858 jobs. This shows that large single-quarter swings of about 0.9% occur. Reversals of the 2026 rise are not unprecedented. https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/news-release/businessemploymentdynamics_ohio.htm - [2026-01] 2025 level mix: the monthly SA path in 2025 ran 674–679k and the annual mean was about 677.5k. The 2026 YTD figure is up only about 1.4k on December 2025 (679.3). The jump to 688–689k in Jul–Aug came in about two months and is a candidate for mean reversion or a later revision. The BLS Ohio page shows the series. https://www.bls.gov/regions/midwest/ohio.htm - [2026-07] The Ohio state LMI report showed the over-the-year total nonfarm gain at only +1,500 for June, with a +1,300 goods-producing gain. Total Ohio employment fell from 5,679.8k in April to 5,662.1k in August. The manufacturing gain is the outlier in a flat-to-shrinking state economy. https://ohiolmi.com/_docs/ces/lmr.pdf - [2026-10-09] WARN data: layoffdata.com shows 64 Ohio WARN notices affecting 7,207 workers in 2026, down 47% from 2025. Layoff pressure is therefore lower than in 2025, which weakens the NO case. https://layoffdata.com/ohio/2026/ BOTTOM LINE: The strongest NO path is the March 2027 benchmark. The national preliminary manufacturing revision of −67k suggests a downward level shift that could consume most or all of the roughly 4.4k cushion, while the 677.4 threshold stays fixed. Without a large revision or a sharp Sept–Dec drop, the status quo and the arithmetic favor YES. NOT FOUND: the Ohio-specific manufacturing preliminary benchmark revision; the BLS 2025 annual-average figure; the September 2026 Ohio manufacturing figure; the exact March 2027 release date. The BLS national table 1 (manufacturing −67,000) was not visible in the fetch and was taken from the AAF summary.