Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

- [2026-10-11] Moraes is still a sitting STF justice. Wikipedia lists him as incumbent since 22 Mar 2017 and as STF vice-president since 2025. I found no report of a resignation, retirement, removal or suspension. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexandre_de_Moraes - [2026-10-09] Moraes issued an arrest warrant for Eduardo Bolsonaro and ordered his 4-year-2-month sentence enforced. The conviction became final on 3 Oct. He is acting in his normal capacity. https://newscord.org/article/alexandre-de-moraes-orders-eduardo-bolsonaro-arrest-cancels-passport-enforces-fo--Story_20261009_BrasilienHaftbefehlg8e30ab12 - [2026-10-09] The presidential runoff is on 25 Oct, between Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) and Lula. Flávio has said Moraes cannot remain on the court. The new president takes office in Jan 2027, after the window closes. https://alto.gab.com/feed/zerohedge/item/448411 - [2026-09-04] Flávio Bolsonaro said Senate President Alcolumbre is "protecting" Moraes by not advancing impeachment requests. He cited the Banco Master investigation material that was made public. https://www.poder360.com.br/poder-eleicoes-2026/flavio-diz-que-alcolumbre-protege-moraes-ao-barrar-impeachment/ - [2026-09-05] Senator Alessandro Vieira filed a new impeachment request against Moraes with 20 signatures. The Rio Times (about 27 days before today) says nothing has moved. There has been no admissibility ruling, no committee referral and no vote. https://www.riotimesonline.com/moraes-impeachment-requests-senate-count-2026/ - [2026-09-01] Alcolumbre said 109 impeachment requests are pending against the ten justices, 55 of them against Moraes. None has advanced. https://www.aosfatos.org/noticias/moraes-alcolumbre-impeachment/ - [Undated, 2026] Only the Senate president can rule an impeachment request admissible. Removal needs 54 of 81 senators. Alcolumbre has kept all requests parked. https://www.riotimesonline.com/moraes-impeachment-requests-senate-count-2026/ - [2026-08-16] The Financial Times reported that the US discussed re-imposing sanctions on Moraes. No decision was taken. His earlier Magnitsky listing was lifted on 12 Dec 2025. Sanctions would not by themselves remove him from the court. https://www.riotimesonline.com/us-moraes-sanctions-brazil-magnitsky/ - [2025-12-12] The US removed Moraes and his wife from the sanctions list. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-removes-brazilian-supreme-court-judge-alexandre-de-moraes-sanctions-list - [2026-09] Wikipedia mentions a Sept 2026 report tied to the Banco Master case and Federal Police material. The snippet was truncated, so I could not confirm the details. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexandre_de_Moraes - [Reference] Moraes was born on 13 Dec 1968, so he is 57. The compulsory retirement age is 75, which he reaches on 13 Dec 2043. https://www.migalhas.com.br/quentes/399657/ministros-do-stf-saiba-quem-os-indicou-e-quando-se-aposentam - [2025-10-09] Barroso retired early, which shows early exits do happen at the STF. No such signal from Moraes has been found. https://tagteam.harvard.edu/hub_feeds/3884/feed_items/16322581/content BOTTOM LINE: As of 11 Oct 2026 Moraes is in office and actively ruling. The only removal route, Senate impeachment, is blocked by Alcolumbre, and no resignation signal exists. The main scheduled event is the 25 Oct runoff, and any change of government comes after the window closes. NOT FOUND: Any official announcement of his resignation, retirement, suspension or removal. Any admissibility ruling or scheduled Senate vote on impeachment. The details of the Sept 2026 Banco Master report on Moraes. Any scheduled event before 31 Dec that would force his exit.

- [2026-10-05] The Senate has never approved an impeachment petition against an STF justice. Senate President Alcolumbre said in September that 109 petitions against justices were pending. A political scientist quoted in the piece says impeachment is hard "but no longer unthinkable". The new Senate takes office in 2027, so the shift in votes comes after this market closes. The Courthouse News page returned 403, so this is from the search snippet only. https://www.courthousenews.com/brazils-right-wing-senate-majority-sets-stage-for-supreme-court-overhaul/ - [2026-10-05] CNN Brasil (fetched) reports that the STF itself estimates about 50 senators openly favour impeaching justices. Inside the court, Moraes is seen as the number-one target. A Gilmar Mendes injunction from 2025 is still in force. It raised the votes needed from 41 to 54 and limits grounds to common crimes or crimes of responsibility. The analyst says a Flávio Bolsonaro runoff win would raise the odds. He also says no STF justice has ever been impeached. https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/politica/analise-ala-do-stf-ve-moraes-e-dino-na-mira-do-senado/ - [2026-10-05] Gazeta do Povo (fetched) counts 30 of the 54 senators elected on 4 Oct as declaring support for impeaching justices. The PL will hold 28 of 81 seats from 2027. The PL's plan is to win the Senate presidency in February 2027 first, which controls the agenda. Only then would it seek 54 votes. The seats being filled take office in 2027, so the current Senate is still in place through the end of 2026. https://www.gazetadopovo.com.br/eleicoes/2026/eles-se-comprometeram-com-impeachment-de-ministros-stf/ - [2026-09] The Banco Master/Vorcaro case is a new, non-ideological source of pressure on Moraes. Justice Mendonça lifted the secrecy on the file in early September. It concerns Moraes's contacts with Vorcaro and contracts between Master-linked firms and his wife's law firm. Estadão, Folha and O Globo editorials called for him to leave the court. Folha said resignation or Senate impeachment. Source: CNN Brasil, 38 days before 2026-10-11. https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/politica/editoriais-de-estadao-folha-e-globo-pedem-saida-de-moraes-do-stf/ - [2026-09-03] Wikipedia lists 55 new impeachment petitions against Moraes filed as of 3 Sept 2026. Earlier petitions were shelved, including Bolsonaro's in Aug 2021 (rejected 25 Aug 2021) and the five filed by July 2025. Pacheco, then Senate president, shelved them. Only the Senate president can start the process. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexandre_de_Moraes - [2025-08-03] Rio Times, early Aug 2025: 34 senators backed impeachment, 19 opposed and 28 were undecided. Removal needs 54 votes, two-thirds of the Senate. The article says the Senate has never removed an STF justice in modern times. https://www.riotimesonline.com/ousting-the-greatest-liability-brazils-senate-sees-growing-push-to-impeach-supreme-court-judge-moraes/ - [2025-12-12] US Global Magnitsky sanctions on Moraes were imposed in July 2025 and lifted 12 Dec 2025. The FT reported on 16 Aug 2026 that the US had discussed re-imposing them, with no decision. These sanctions did not push him off the court. https://www.riotimesonline.com/us-moraes-sanctions-brazil-magnitsky/ - [2026-01-08] A sibling Polymarket market, "Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027", opened 8 Jan 2026. Its page text cited trader consensus on No at about 96.4% at the time of the snapshot, which is stale. Its resolution rules count only impeachment, not resignation. This contract also counts resignation, retirement and removal, and an announcement is enough. https://polymarket.com/event/any-brazil-stf-justice-removed-by-impeachment-before-2027 - [2025-10-09] Voluntary early exits do happen. Barroso announced early retirement at 67, eight years before the age-75 limit. Moraes's mandatory retirement is in 2043, so natural exit is not a factor. A commenter on the sibling Polymarket market argued that a justice facing impeachment would resign first. That would resolve this market Yes. https://tagteam.harvard.edu/hub_feeds/3884/feed_items/16322581/content - [2026-10-07] Eduardo Bolsonaro's sentence became final on 3 Oct, and Moraes ordered his arrest on 7 Oct. This is 18 days before the presidential runoff, in which Flávio Bolsonaro is a finalist. Moraes has refused to step aside from cases in which he is the alleged target. https://riotimesonline.com/eduardo-bolsonaro-moraes-judge-own-case-runoff-opinion-2026 BOTTOM LINE: The reference class is strong for No. No STF justice has been removed since 1988, and the roughly 160 petitions filed since 2021 were all shelved. The 54-vote bar has been raised by injunction, and the pro-impeachment Senate majority only takes office in Feb 2027, after the market closes. The upside risks are a voluntary resignation under Banco Master pressure, or an early move by the current Senate president Alcolumbre, who reportedly promised an answer on impeachment on 8 Oct. NOT FOUND: Alcolumbre's actual 8 Oct response; the runoff result and date; any independent poll or expert probability for Moraes leaving; the live price of this contract (deliberately not searched); the full Courthouse News text.

YES means: Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be an STF justice for any period before 31 Dec 2026. That includes resignation, early retirement, removal or suspension. An announcement of resignation or removal made before the deadline is enough, even if it takes effect later. - [2026-09-02] The PF report on the Master case lists 52 messages from Vorcaro to Moraes. It also details R$80m in payments tied to his family's law firm, aircraft loaned to that firm, and credit cards offered to his children. This is a document-backed scandal inside the court, not only political pressure. Gazeta do Povo, which I fetched, reports that Moraes's allies were looking for "a way out". It also says Fachin acknowledged a moment of "special gravity". https://www.gazetadopovo.com.br/republica/ministros-do-stf-articulam-saida-de-moraes-da-crise-e-vorcaro-implica-andrei/ - [2026-09-02] The same Gazeta piece says Mendonça wants the plenary to vote on opening an inquiry into Moraes, with Moraes not voting. Mendonça is backed by Fachin, who is worried about the court's legitimacy. Moraes's camp argues the PF report is tainted. The mechanism is that an inquiry opened by the plenary could lead to a precautionary suspension, but the same piece says the votes were doubtful. The cited tendency at the time was archiving, which is the more likely outcome. https://www.gazetadopovo.com.br/republica/ministros-do-stf-articulam-saida-de-moraes-da-crise-e-vorcaro-implica-andrei/ - [2026-10-07] Poder360 (search snippet only, page returned 403) says the plenary's 15 Sept review of whether to investigate Moraes was deferred. It says the deferral shields him for up to 90 days, which runs to roughly mid-December and into the window. Fachin got Moraes's denial on 11 Sept and on 24 Sept asked the PGR for an opinion. The case is live and unresolved inside the window. https://poder360.com.br/poder-justica/moraes-recebe-andrei-e-outros-chefes-da-pf-no-supremo - [2026-09-23] Lawyers Paulo Faria and Filipe de Oliveira filed an addendum to a criminal complaint at the STF. They repeat requests for Moraes's precautionary suspension and preventive detention, citing a R$131m Master contract with his wife's firm. This is a Revista Oeste report of a private filing, not a court decision. It shows a suspension request is pending. https://revistaoeste.com/no-ponto/afastamento-de-moraes-stf/ - [2026-10-10] Flávio Bolsonaro called for Moraes to resign after the Eduardo Bolsonaro arrest order. That is a rhetorical demand from a runoff finalist, not an event. https://gazetadopovo.com.br/gazeta-agora/gazeta-agora-flavio-bolsonaro-ataca-moraes-e-pede-sua-renuncia-apos-decisao-sobre-eduardo - [2026-09-01] The editorials of 1–2 Sept in Estadão, Folha and O Globo named resignation as one route out. Resignation is the only exit that does not need Alcolumbre or a plenary majority. A justice facing an impeachment-driven Senate in 2027 could pre-empt it. The 25 Oct runoff and the pending inquiry decision are the likeliest triggers. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexandre_de_Moraes - [2026-09-01] Alcolumbre said of the Moraes–Vorcaro messages "I found nothing, I shouldn't find anything". That points to No on Senate impeachment. Gazeta do Povo reported an earlier occasion on which 41 senators signed a request, and the history of Senate presidents shelving requests continues. https://www.congressoemfoco.com.br/noticia/121876/nao-devo-achar-nada--diz-alcolumbre-de-mensagens-de-moraes-e-vorcaro - [2026-09-18] Diário do Poder reports the opposition has given up on Alcolumbre. It is betting on the next Senate and aiming to elect 41 right-wing senators. This implies no impeachment before 2027 in the opposition's own view. It leaves resignation or a court-internal route as the only YES paths in 2026. https://diariodopoder.com.br/justica/ttc-justica/oposicao-desiste-de-alcolumbre-para-impeachment-de-moraes-e-aposta-no-proximo-senado - [2026-09-02] Gazeta do Povo has a related item titled "Lei dá à Mesa do Senado, e não a Alcolumbre, poder sobre pedido de impeachment". I did not open it. If correct, it would weaken the single-gatekeeper argument. https://www.gazetadopovo.com.br/republica/ministros-do-stf-articulam-saida-de-moraes-da-crise-e-vorcaro-implica-andrei/ - [2025-10-09] Barroso retired at 67 and said it was not because of outside decisions. Gazeta do Povo had reported speculation about extra early exits before the end of 2026, but it named no Moraes exit. The precedent shows a resignation can be announced abruptly. https://tagteam.harvard.edu/hub_feeds/3884/feed_items/16322581/content Single most likely path to YES: a voluntary resignation or retirement announcement by Moraes, probably after a Flávio Bolsonaro runoff win on 25 Oct. The trigger would be pressure from the Master inquiry, which a plenary vote or the PGR opinion could open before mid-December. Prerequisites: - Flávio wins on 25 Oct. - The Master case escalates, with the plenary opening an inquiry or the PGR reversing. - Moraes judges that exit beats facing the 2027 Senate. I found no evidence he intends this. Secondary path: a plenary-ordered precautionary suspension, which is also unlikely because his allies dominate the court. BOTTOM LINE: The YES case rests on the Master scandal, which gives a document-backed trigger and a 90-day deferral that expires inside the window. It also rests on a possible Flávio win, which would sharply raise the 2027 impeachment threat. Every concrete step still requires an unobserved choice by Moraes, Alcolumbre or a court majority that has so far protected him. NOT FOUND: Any statement by Moraes about resigning or retiring. The outcome of the PGR opinion or the plenary decision on opening an inquiry. Alcolumbre's 8 Oct answer. The runoff result. The full Poder360 page (403). The content of the "Mesa do Senado" article.

YES means: Moraes ceases to be an STF justice for any period before 31 Dec 2026 (resignation, retirement, removal or suspension), or an announcement of such an exit is made in that window. - [2025-08-06] Alcolumbre has said since August 2025 that he would not schedule the impeachment even if all 81 senators signed. He called the decision his exclusive prerogative. Party leaders who met him relayed this, and he publicly reframed it as a "legal-political" assessment. Fetched: Gazeta do Povo, 8 Aug 2025. This is a stated position from over a year ago and he has not reversed it. https://www.gazetadopovo.com.br/republica/por-que-alcolumbre-nao-pauta-o-impeachment-de-moraes/ - [2026-09-01] After the Vorcaro messages were released, Alcolumbre said "I found nothing" in them and "should not find anything." He pointed instead at the 109 pending requests as "not normal." Congresso em Foco noted that no impeachment of an STF justice has ever been approved. The Senate president's reaction to the Banco Master material was dismissive. https://www.congressoemfoco.com.br/noticia/121876/nao-devo-achar-nada--diz-alcolumbre-de-mensagens-de-moraes-e-vorcaro - [2026-09-16] Fetched: Diário do Poder reports the opposition has stopped expecting Alcolumbre to schedule the impeachment. Its sources say he will not change position. The opposition is now targeting the next Senate (a goal of 41 right-wing senators) and the Senate presidency succession, with Tereza Cristina the most cited name. That plan runs past 31 Dec 2026. Alcolumbre is also reportedly worried about cases against him coming out of the drawer at the STF. https://diariodopoder.com.br/justica/ttc-justica/oposicao-desiste-de-alcolumbre-para-impeachment-de-moraes-e-aposta-no-proximo-senado - [2026-09-17] Marinho's draft Senate resolution would put deadlines on the Senate president and allow a complaint to proceed without him. It is only a draft. It needs a vote that Alcolumbre controls. Even under its terms: 30 working days to decide, then the Mesa, then a three-fifths signature threshold. The path to a process opening this year runs through Alcolumbre. (Article dated about 20 days before today.) https://ndmais.com.br/politica/impeachment-de-ministros-do-stf-projeto-preve-novas-regras/ - [2026-09-17] Even if a process opened, a typical Senate timetable is a special committee (10 days), a defence period (10 days), a further committee opinion (10 days), then plenary votes. The Senate also has a campaign-season calendar and a runoff on 25 Oct. Removal needs 54 of 81 votes. Per Politize, a final judgment needs a quorum of 54, presided over by the STF president. The Senate has no precedent of finishing this in under ten weeks. https://www.politize.com.br/impeachment-de-ministros-do-stf/ - [2026-09-11] Reports say Moraes decided not to resign, because leaving could look like an admission of guilt. This is a report attributed to allies (bombeirosdf.com.br, a low-quality aggregator), not an official statement. He went on the offensive by asking Fachin to open an investigation into Mendonça. A prepared public statement was postponed. Moraes is fighting, not exiting. https://www.bombeirosdf.com.br/2026/09/moraes-descarta-renuncia-e-decide.html - [2026-09-04] Fachin, as STF president, took the cross-petitions between Moraes and Mendonça under the Presidency and gave PGR five days to respond. PGR chief Gonet had already acted against Mendonça's move on 1 Sep, asking for the petition to be annulled. The STF's institutional gatekeepers are not siding against Moraes. There is no sign of the plenary stripping him of his seat. https://www.brasildefato.com.br/2026/09/04/fachin-assume-pedido-de-moraes-para-investigar-mendonca-no-caso-banco-master/ - [2026-10-10] An investigation that Mendonça made secret and then public is procedurally disputed (reported by Brasil em Folhas, a lower-tier outlet). Gonet asked for it to be annulled, and Mendonça did not send it to Fachin. A procedural defect gives Moraes's side a route to annul or contain the case. An investigation also does not remove a justice. Being investigated is not the same as ceasing to be one. https://brasilemfolhas.com.br/2026/10/mendonca-separou-sigilosamente-investigacao-contra-moraes-no-stf - [2026-09-02] The "honourable exit" talk came from a CNN Brasil analyst relaying politicians' views. It is pressure from outside, with no sign of Moraes considering it. Folha's editorial said "resign or else impeachment," which concedes that resignation is a request and not a plan. https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/politica/crise-no-stf-abre-especulacao-sobre-saida-honrosa-para-moraes/ - [2026-03-xx, 218 days before today] Fact-checkers (boatos.org) debunked viral claims that Moraes had resigned to avoid a 2027 impeachment. They also debunked a separate claim of resignation under US pressure. Such false reports recur and a "resignation" headline needs official confirmation. The resolution source is official information from Moraes or the government, or a consensus of credible reporting. https://www.boatos.org/politica/alexandre-de-moraes-renunciou-ao-stf-para-evitar-impeachment-em-2027.html - [2025-08-08] Gazeta analysts (fetched) say pressure from outside, such as the US sanctions, tends to make Congress leaders close ranks around the institution. Political scientist Leandro Gabiati of Dominium said removing a justice would dissolve the 8 Jan 2023 alliance of the three branches. That was written about the sanctions era, but the same logic of institutional closing of ranks applies now. https://www.gazetadopovo.com.br/republica/por-que-alcolumbre-nao-pauta-o-impeachment-de-moraes/ - [2026-10-10] Moraes remains active, issuing orders in the Eduardo Bolsonaro case. A Flávio Bolsonaro win on 25 Oct would not change the court before the president takes office in Jan 2027, and the new Senate sits from Feb 2027. There is no scheduled trigger inside the window. https://www.gazetadopovo.com.br/republica/por-que-alcolumbre-nao-pauta-o-impeachment-de-moraes/ BOTTOM LINE: Only three routes lead to Yes (Alcolumbre reversing himself, a resignation under pressure, or an unprecedented suspension), and the evidence shows each one blocked or unsignalled as of 11 Oct 2026. The pro-impeachment Senate majority and the Senate presidency contest fall after 31 Dec, so inertia favours No. NOT FOUND: Alcolumbre's reported 8 Oct answer on impeachment. Any official statement from Moraes on resignation. Any Senate vote scheduled before 31 Dec. Any report of Moraes's suspension under the Senate rules. The runoff result.