Will Missouri’s annual-average manufacturing employment for 2026 be above 280,500 jobs?

- [2026-10-11] BLS's official monthly series SMU29000003000000001 (Missouri, not-seasonally-adjusted, all-employee manufacturing) shows 2026 values: Jan 275.9k, Feb 279.7k, Mar 278.1k, Apr 277.0k, May 276.6k, Jun 280.5k, Jul 280.2k, Aug 279.4k (preliminary). Source: BLS public API, https://api.bls.gov/publicAPI/v2/timeseries/data/SMU29000003000000001 - [2026-10-11] The 8-month (Jan–Aug 2026) average of the NSA series is ~278.4k, about 3.3k below the same-period 2025 average (~281.75k), confirming a year-over-year decline in the raw monthly series. - [2025-12-31] Using the same BLS series, the full 2025 annual average computes to ~280.5k (sum of 12 months ÷12 ≈ 280.51), which is the basis for the 280,500 threshold fixed in the contract rules. - [2026-09-18] MERIC (Missouri's state labor-market office, in partnership with BLS) reported for August 2026: "Goods-producing industries increased by 1,200 jobs over the month, with mining, logging, and construction gaining 2,200 jobs and manufacturing declining by 1,000 jobs." (seasonally adjusted monthly change). Source: https://meric.mo.gov/missouri-monthly-jobs-report - [2026-09-18] Over the year to August 2026, MERIC/BLS data show "an increase of 34,100 jobs from August 2025 to August 2026" in total nonfarm, but "Employment decreased in manufacturing (-500 jobs) and other services (-400 jobs)" over that same year, i.e., manufacturing is one of the few shrinking sectors. - [2026-09-18] The Joint Economic Committee's state update similarly flags manufacturing as a laggard: "The worst performing sectors were Manufacturing (-1,000) and Information (-700)" from July to August 2026, and "The worst performing sectors were Federal Government (-4,200) and Manufacturing (-500)" from August 2025 to August 2026. Source: https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/vendor/_accounts/JEC-R/employment/state/Missouri%20Employment%20Update.html - [2026-10-11] FRED's mirror of the same NSA series (MOMFGN) confirms Aug 2026 = 279.4k and lists the next BLS data release date as 2026-10-20 (September 2026 data). Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MOMFGN - [2026-01-28] Annual-revision/benchmarking notes from MERIC indicate that 2025 CES estimates for Missouri were revised during the January 2026 benchmark process, meaning both 2025 (baseline) and 2026 monthly figures remain subject to further revision before the final 2026 annual average is published (typically around Feb-March 2027). Source: https://meric.mo.gov/missouri-monthly-jobs-report - [2026-10-11] Arithmetic check: with Jan–Aug 2026 NSA sum = 2,227.4 (thousand-months), reaching a 280.5k annual average over 12 months would require the remaining four months (Sep–Dec 2026) to average ~284.7k — higher than any single month Missouri manufacturing has recorded in 2026 so far (peak was 280.5k in June) and well above the Sep–Dec 2025 average of ~278.0k. BOTTOM LINE: Based on the official BLS series cited in the contract, Missouri manufacturing employment has run below the 2025 pace all year (8-month 2026 average ≈278.4k vs. the 280.5k threshold), and would need an implausible jump in the Sep–Dec 2026 monthly readings to push the annual average above 280,500; current trend data point toward No. NOT FOUND: No official BLS forecast or September 2026 SMU29000003000000001 value yet (scheduled for release 2026-10-20); no Missouri-specific manufacturing outlook/survey (e.g., ISM-style index) with a 2026 full-year projection was located in this search.

- [2026-04-10] BLS's official annual-average Missouri manufacturing employment (NSA, series SMU29000003000000001A) came in at exactly 280.5 thousand for 2025 — the identical level used as this contract's fixed 2026 threshold — after averaging 284.4 (2024), 286.7 (2023) and 282.5 (2022), showing a declining three-year trend. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=SMU29000003000000001A - [2026-01-?] University of Missouri Extension's Missouri Manufacturing Indicators reported Missouri manufacturers employed 279,100 workers in December 2025, down 100 jobs from November, and over the past year Missouri manufacturing jobs have decreased by 5,300, representing a 1.9% decline in production jobs since December 2024. https://extension.missouri.edu/media/wysiwyg/Extensiondata/Pro/ExCEED/Docs/MissouriMfgIndicators_Jan2026.pdf - [2025-08-?] The same series showed a brief rebound mid-2025, with Missouri manufacturers employing 283,300 workers in July 2025, up 1,200 jobs from June, and over one year Missouri manufacturing jobs having grown by 5,000, a 1.8% increase since July 2024 , but that gain reversed by year-end. https://extension.missouri.edu/media/wysiwyg/Extensiondata/Pro/ExCEED/Docs/MissouriMfgIndicators_Aug2025.pdf - [2026-07-22] FRED's seasonally-adjusted MOMFG series (same underlying BLS state employment program) shows 2026 monthly readings well below the 280.5 threshold for most of the year: Jan 277.9, Feb 280.0, Mar 278.5, Apr 277.8, May 277.3, Jun 278.8. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MOMFG - [2026-08-21] The next FRED update pegged Jul 2026 manufacturing employment at 280.1 thousand (seasonally adjusted), still under the 280.5 annual-average bar needed for the full-year figure to clear it given weak early-year months. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MOMFG (search snippet, FRED MOMFG page) - [2026-10-?] BLS's Mountain-Plains regional office confirms the Missouri manufacturing series SMS29000003000000001 (seasonally adjusted) and reiterates no methodology change; the state monthly jobs report (MERIC) corroborates continued manufacturing softness through mid-2026, noting manufacturing job losses in several recent months (e.g., -1,000, -500, -2,800, -4,000 in various 2026 months). https://meric.mo.gov/missouri-monthly-jobs-report - [2024 vintage] Longer-run base rate: Missouri manufacturing employment peaked post-pandemic at 286.7 thousand (2023 annual average) before declining for two consecutive years (2024: 284.4; 2025: 280.5), a cumulative loss of about 6,200 jobs over two years, consistent with a secular manufacturing slowdown rather than a one-off dip. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=SMU29000003000000001A - [2024-10-?] A third-party workforce-projection analysis (ETQ/state labor dept compilations) projected Missouri manufacturing employment growing modestly from a 282,238 base year to 286,536 over a 10-year horizon (+1.5%), implying only slow longer-term growth, not the kind of rapid rebound needed to push 2026 well above 280.5 given the 2025 starting point was already at 280.5. https://www.webstercountycitizen.com/news/state/article_d7eeadca-290f-5022-9c87-517693f7de2a.html BOTTOM LINE: The reference class — Missouri's own manufacturing employment history — shows a declining trend (286.7→284.4→280.5 thousand for 2023-2025) that has continued into 2026, with seasonally-adjusted monthly readings mostly in the 277-280 range through mid-2026; because the fixed 280.5 threshold exactly equals the 2025 actual average and the trend/momentum is still negative, the outside view leans toward the 2026 annual average coming in at or below 280.5 rather than clearly above it. NOT FOUND: No official BLS annual-average estimate for 2026 exists yet (not published until early 2027); could not find an explicit forecast/survey specifically predicting the 2026 annual-average Missouri manufacturing employment figure, nor any betting-market or expert consensus number distinct from the raw monthly BLS data already cited.

YES means: BLS's officially published annual-average 2026 Missouri Manufacturing employment (series SMU29000003000000001) comes in strictly above 280,500, which would require the Sep–Dec 2026 monthly NSA readings to average meaningfully higher than anything recorded so far this year. - [2026-10-02] Nationally, the BLS September 2026 employment report (released despite being delayed) showed manufacturing payrolls rising for the month, with the establishment survey showing manufacturing adding jobs even as the headline nonfarm number badly missed expectations — a signal the sector's recent softness may be turning, and that any similar Missouri uptick in September data (due Oct 20) could push monthly levels higher than the 277–280k range seen all year. https://redstate.com/wardclark/2026/10/02/manufacturing-construction-add-jobs-in-new-september-report-n2207657 - [2026-09-18] Missouri's own Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI, Creighton/MERIC survey) jumped to 57.5 in August 2026, up 3.4 points from July's 54.1, "solidly in expansion territory" — the seventh straight month the broader Mid-America business conditions index stayed above growth-neutral, a leading indicator that often precedes hiring upticks in subsequent months. https://meric.mo.gov/data/pmi - [2026-10-01] The national ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 54.5% in September 2026, marking the ninth consecutive month of expansion after a prior 10-month contraction, with New Orders accelerating to 55.3% (up 1.6 points) and Employment sub-index rising to 52.7 (up 1.5 points) — forward-looking demand strength that, if it feeds through to Missouri plants, could lift Sep–Dec hiring. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-54-5-september-2026-ism-manufacturing-pmi-report-302894520.html - [2026-09-23] Schreiber Foods announced a new $267 million process cheese manufacturing facility in Carthage, Missouri, its second major expansion there in two years, though hiring (~100 jobs) is not slated until operations begin in 2028, meaning this adds to the long-run case but not directly to 2026 headcount. https://www.industryselect.com/blog/new-us-factories-unveiled-in-september-2026 - [2026-08-12] Bertagni 1882 selected St. Charles, Missouri for a $36.4 million pasta manufacturing facility creating 150 jobs, and La-Z-Boy announced an August 31 expansion in Neosho investing $23 million for up to 100 new jobs — both signal continued investment inflow that could show up in Q4 2026 payroll counts if hiring ramps quickly. https://ded.mo.gov/press-room/archive - [2026-09-29] King Technology opened a new $17 million, 208,000-square-foot manufacturing/distribution center in St. Peters, Missouri on September 29 with an active ribbon-cutting, indicating at least one facility is already operational and adding headcount within the Sep–Dec 2026 window relevant to the annual average. https://www.industryselect.com/blog/new-us-factories-unveiled-in-september-2026 - [2026-10-11] MERIC's data show Missouri's monthly manufacturing swings have been volatile and occasionally positive even in the recent downtrend (e.g., May and June 2026 revisions added manufacturing jobs of +1,500 and +900 respectively), illustrating that upward revisions in subsequent benchmarking could still lift the as-published annual average above the current trend-implied path. https://meric.mo.gov/missouri-monthly-jobs-report - [2026-01-?] Because 2025's annual average was effectively revised during the January 2026 CES benchmark process, the 2026 monthly series itself remains provisional and subject to similar upward benchmark revision when final 2026 figures are published in 2027, leaving open a narrow path for the published annual average to land above 280.5 even if preliminary monthly prints run lower. https://meric.mo.gov/missouri-monthly-jobs-report BOTTOM LINE: The YES case rests on a confluence of improving leading indicators — Missouri's own PMI surging to 57.5 in August, a ninth straight month of national ISM manufacturing expansion with accelerating new orders, a September 2026 BLS report showing national manufacturing payroll gains, and several Missouri plant openings/expansions in Q3 2026 — plus the standing possibility of upward benchmark revisions, all of which could lift Sep–Dec 2026 monthly readings well above the 277–280k range seen earlier in the year; however, even this bullish evidence describes only directional improvement, not yet a confirmed monthly level high enough to make the 284–285k average needed for the remaining four months plausible. NOT FOUND: No Missouri-specific manufacturing employment projection or forecast for Sep–Dec 2026 was located; no confirmed September 2026 Missouri SMU29000003000000001 reading (scheduled Oct 20, 2026) exists yet; no evidence of a Missouri-specific CES benchmark revision already pushing 2025 or 2026 levels upward beyond what colleagues' reports already cite.

YES means: BLS's officially published annual-average Missouri Manufacturing employment (series SMU29000003000000001A) for calendar year 2026 comes in above 280.5 thousand jobs when published (expected ~Feb-March 2027). - [2026-08-20] A fresh WARN notice shows Cornerstone Building Brands (prefabricated metal building manufacturing) in Kearney, MO laying off 61 workers effective 2026-10-19 — squarely inside the Sep–Dec 2026 window that must average ~284.7k to clear the threshold, adding direct downward pressure on exactly the months needed to push the annual average above 280.5. https://jobs.mo.gov/warn/2026 - [2026-07-07] Nature's Bakery (Mars-owned, a manufacturing WARN filer) confirmed its Hazelwood plant will shed 130 workers on 2026-09-11, with another 215 following 2027-02-26, meaning the first cut lands in Q4 2026, the very period that would need an unprecedented rebound to hit the strike. https://www.thestreet.com/employment/mars-popular-snack-brand-close-plant-cuts-345-jobs - [2026-10-02] A Missouri WARN tracker (updated daily) shows 2026 YTD manufacturing-heavy layoffs continuing into October, with Manufacturing accounting for the largest industry share of affected workers (52%) among all WARN filings over the trailing 24 months, underscoring that job losses are concentrated in the sector the contract measures, not a stray month. https://warnact.io/state-missouri - [2026-09-18] FRED's MOMFGN mirror confirms the most recent official monthly print (Aug 2026 = 279.4k) and that the next data release (Sep 2026, due 2026-10-20) is still pending, so no evidence yet exists of any turnaround large enough to offset the shortfall. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MOMFGN - [2026-03-?] University of Missouri Extension's March 2026 Indicators brief shows Missouri's manufacturing PMI fell to 50.4 that month — a "notable drop…pointing to softer business sentiment overall" — consistent with employment stagnating rather than accelerating later in the year. https://extension.missouri.edu/media/wysiwyg/Extensiondata/Pro/ExCEED/Docs/missouri-mfg-indicators-mar2026.pdf - [2026-03-?] The same Extension brief reports Missouri manufacturing jobs were down 0.5% year-over-year as of January 2026, slightly better than the 0.7% national manufacturing decline, but still a net loss, not the growth trajectory needed. https://extension.missouri.edu/media/wysiwyg/Extensiondata/Pro/ExCEED/Docs/missouri-mfg-indicators-mar2026.pdf - [2026-10-01] A national tariff-and-trade analysis piece (dated days ago) notes that even under an improving national ISM PMI, factory payrolls nationally only "grown by 58,000 jobs" after bottoming in December 2025 — a slow national recovery pace that, if mirrored in Missouri, is far too modest to add the roughly 5,000-6,000 extra jobs needed above the current ~279k trajectory to clear 280.5k on an annual-average basis. https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/manufacturing-surged-when-tariffs-were-lifted/ - [2026-05-?] Multiple 2026 Missouri manufacturing WARN closures already finalized earlier in the year — General Mills (163 jobs, closed June 8) and Timken Belts (283 jobs, closing July 31) — removed capacity ahead of Q4, meaning the sector enters the back half of 2026 with a lower baseline headcount than it had in January, reinforcing the downward trend rather than reversing it. https://jobs.mo.gov/warn/2026 BOTTOM LINE: Confirmed WARN notices (Cornerstone Building Brands, Nature's Bakery) show additional Missouri manufacturing job cuts landing precisely in the Sep–Dec 2026 window, on top of an already-negative year-over-year trend and soft PMI readings, making the required ~284.7k four-month average to clear 280.5k look not just unlikely but actively contradicted by scheduled layoffs. NOT FOUND: No evidence of any large Missouri manufacturing expansion, reshoring announcement, or hiring surge scheduled for Sep–Dec 2026 large enough to offset the identified layoffs and push the annual average above 280.5k; no September 2026 BLS print yet (due 2026-10-20).