Will CPI rise more than 0.4% in November 2026? — Above 0.4%

- [2026-09-11] BLS released August 2026 CPI data: the CPI-U increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August after rising 0.1 percent in July, with the all items index up 3.4 percent over the last 12 months. Core CPI rose 0.3 percent after increasing 0.2 percent in July. (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm) - [2026-08-12] BLS released July 2026 CPI data: the CPI-U increased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in July after falling 0.4 percent in June, with the all items index up 3.4 percent over the last 12 months before seasonal adjustment. (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_08122026.htm) - [2026-09-11] Monthly seasonally-adjusted all-items CPI changes for Feb–Aug 2026 were reported as 0.3, 0.9, 0.6, 0.5, -0.4, 0.1, 0.4 percent respectively, showing high month-to-month volatility (largely energy/gasoline driven) rather than a steady trend. (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm) - [2026-10-11] The BLS CPI homepage currently lists the Consumer Price Index for September 2026 scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time , with no indication of further delay. (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/) - [2026-10-11] Nowflation's schedule confirms October 14, 2026 (September 2026 data); November 10, 2026 (October 2026 data); December 10, 2026 (November 2026 data) as the remaining 2026 CPI release dates, consistent with this market's November 2026 reference month and December 10 close. (https://nowflation.com/cpi-release-dates) - [2026-09-02] A government shutdown that threatened to begin October 1, 2026 was averted: Congress moved early, passing a continuing resolution that President Trump signed into law on September 2, 2026 nearly a full month before the deadline, keeping federal agencies funded at current levels through December 11, 2026. (https://govtschemes.org/government-shutdown-october-2026/) - [2026-09-02] This CR funding runs through December 11, 2026, averting the shutdown that had been building toward an October 1 deadline, extending what's already in place through that date. Since this postdates the Dec 10, 2026 CPI release and the Dec 10 market close, there is currently no active or imminent shutdown risk to BLS's ability to collect and publish November CPI data on schedule. (https://govtschemes.org/government-shutdown-2026-update/) - [2025-11-12 historical] The prior (2025) 43-day shutdown had previously disrupted CPI collection and delayed releases (e.g., October 2025 CPI data was never collected); in January 2026, ERS resumed updates after the October 1, 2025, to November 12, 2025 shutdown, during which BLS suspended CPI and PPI data collection. This illustrates the contract's "government shutdown" extension clause is not merely hypothetical, though no such disruption is currently underway as of October 2026. (https://ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/update-and-revision-history) - [2026-10-08] Pre-release forecasts for the (not-yet-released) September 2026 CPI point to headline inflation rising from 3.4% to about 3.6% to 3.7% year on year, with core CPI expected to stay close to 2.4% , and a Cleveland Fed nowcast of +0.53% m/m headline and +0.20% m/m core , suggesting some forecasters see a pickup in the next monthly print above the August 0.4% pace, though this is for September, two releases before the November data this contract concerns. - [2026-09-05 implied] Labor market data referenced on the BLS homepage shows Unemployment Rate: 4.2% in Sep 2026 and Payroll Employment: +29,000(p) in Sep 2026 , indicating a still-functioning statistical apparatus publishing on schedule as of early October 2026, with no shutdown-related gaps currently reported. (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/) BOTTOM LINE: As of October 11, 2026, no government shutdown or data disruption threatens the scheduled December 10, 2026 release of November 2026 CPI (funding is secured through December 11, 2026), and the most recent actual print (August 2026, +0.4% m/m) sits right at the contract's 0.4% threshold after a highly volatile first half of 2026 (ranging from -0.4% to +0.9% m/m), with some forecaster nowcasts pointing to a slightly stronger (>0.4%) September print — but September and October data (due Oct 14 and Nov 10, 2026) will arrive before the November reading and should meaningfully sharpen the outlook. NOT FOUND: No official forecast specifically for the November 2026 CPI monthly change was found (next prints due are for September on Oct 14, 2026 and October on Nov 10, 2026); no evidence of any current (post-September 2026) government shutdown or BLS operational disruption as of October 11, 2026.

- [2026-09-11] BLS's August 2026 CPI release (covering August data, published under embargo dated September 11, 2026) showed the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August after rising 0.1 percent in July , marking the all-items reading exactly at, not above, the 0.4% strike. Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm - [2026-09-11] BLS's official seasonally-adjusted all-items monthly series for the prior 7 months shows: Feb 2026 0.3%, Mar 2026 0.9%, Apr 2026 0.6%, May 2026 0.5%, Jun 2026 -0.4%, Jul 2026 0.1%, Aug 2026 0.4% — i.e., only 3 of the last 7 readings (Mar, Apr, May, all tied to tariff pass-through) exceeded 0.4%, and the three most recent readings (Jun-Aug) were at or below the threshold. Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm - [2026-01-13] For 2025, the BLS archive table shows seasonally-adjusted all-items monthly changes of Jun 0.3%, Jul 0.2%, Aug 0.4%, Sep 0.3%, and Dec 0.3% (Oct/Nov 2025 figures were not produced due to the shutdown) — All items | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | - | - | 0.3 | 2.7 , none strictly exceeding 0.4%. Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_01132026.htm - Combining these two tables, in the last roughly 14 reported months only 3 (Mar, Apr, May 2026) strictly exceeded +0.4% MoM, a base rate near 20-25%, concentrated in the spring 2026 tariff-driven inflation surge rather than a persistent pattern. - [2026-10-09] The Cleveland Fed's Inflation Nowcasting model, updated October 9, 2026, projects October 2026 | 0.27 | 0.20 | 0.28 | 0.25 | 10/09 for headline CPI MoM, and a September 2026 nowcast of 0.53%, suggesting the near-term trend is moderating toward readings below the 0.4% strike by autumn, though the September print itself (due Oct 14, 2026) was nowcast above it. Source: https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting - [2026-08-19] (approx., Q3 2026 survey) The Philadelphia Fed's Survey of Professional Forecasters (Q3 2026) shows professional forecasters cut their current-quarter headline CPI inflation outlook to average 2.3 percent at an annual rate, down from their prediction of 3.0 percent in the previous survey , consistent with an annualized pace that implies average monthly increases well under 0.4% if spread evenly across months. Source: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q3-2026 - [2026-02-02] As historical precedent from the analogous 2025 shutdown-affected CPI cycle, when data gaps occurred, the November 2025 CPI (released under delay) showed Inflation pressures eased more than expected in November, according to the latest data on consumer prices published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% over the prior year in November, less than expected — illustrating that post-shutdown "catch-up" prints have sometimes come in below consensus, a relevant precedent if a comparable disruption recurred (it has not, for the current cycle). - [2026-09-02] No shutdown currently threatens the November 2026 CPI release: Congress cleared the fiscal-year 2027 start: the Senate passed a continuing resolution on August 8, 2026, the House cleared the same bill on September 1, and President Trump signed it into law on September 2, funding federal agencies through December 11, 2026, one day after this market's scheduled close. Source: https://polymarkettrader.com/events/us-government-shutdown-october-2026/ - [2026-10-07] A separate tracker flags Congress has extended government funding until 11 December 2026. That makes 11 December the next date to watch for a possible government shutdown , meaning a shutdown risk sits just after, not before, this contract's scheduled Dec 10 close/data release — reducing (but not eliminating, if an early lapse occurred) the risk that November CPI data is delayed past the market's expiration window. Source: https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/us-monthly-budget-statement-october-2026 - [2026-10-09] The next scheduled CPI print (September 2026 data) is due October 14, 2026, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX - AUGUST 2026 ... the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today with the following release (October data) and eventually November data due the normal ~mid-December slot, consistent with the market's December 10, 2026 closing date. Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.htm BOTTOM LINE: Over the most comparable recent reference class (14 monthly BLS all-items SA prints from mid-2025 through August 2026), only about 20-25% of months printed strictly above +0.4%, and all three such episodes (Mar-May 2026) coincided with a now-fading tariff-driven spike; the three most recent prints (Jun -0.4%, Jul 0.1%, Aug 0.4%) sit at or below the threshold, and professional forecasters (Philly Fed SPF, Cleveland Fed nowcast) see inflation cooling further, implying the outside-view base rate favors "No" (≤0.4%) for November 2026, absent a new supply shock. NOT FOUND: No specific consensus economist forecast (e.g., FactSet/Bloomberg survey) for the November 2026 CPI monthly change specifically was located (such previews typically appear only in the 1-2 weeks before the release); exact Jan 2026 SA monthly CPI figure was also not directly located in the sources reviewed.

YES means: the BLS reports that the seasonally-adjusted all-items CPI-U rose more than 0.4% month-over-month in November 2026 (data published December 10, 2026). - [2026-10-09] Gas prices are at record levels for the month: as of Oct. 9, the national average price for a gallon of gasoline was $4.37, up 47% from $2.98 on Feb. 27, with prices at the pump at a record high for October, according to AAA . (https://cbsnews.com/news/trump-promised-lower-prices-cost-living-inflation) - [2026-10-06] Independent tracking confirms the same record level and shows prices still elevated despite easing Hormuz transit: gas prices stand above $4.30, marking an increase of 46% from pre-war levels, and oil exports from the Middle East have improved substantially in recent weeks, yet gas and diesel prices remain close to an all-time high . (https://abcnews.com/Business/gas-prices-high-traffic-improves-strait-hormuz/story?id=137064093) - [2026-10-06] LendingTree's monthly average shows the upward momentum feeding directly into the CPI gasoline component had not yet reversed by early October: the average monthly regular gas price rose to $4.36 per gallon in September 2026, from $4.06 in August and $3.93 in July . (https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-cards/study/us-gas-prices/) - [2026-09-11] This mechanism already produced the one month this year that hit the strike exactly: the index for gasoline rose 3.9 percent in August, accounting for over one third of the monthly all items increase, while the index for energy increased 2.1 percent over the month , and CNBC's analysis attributed this directly to the Iran war has increased oil prices, in turn raising prices for gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and other fuels , a conflict/supply shock that has not been resolved as of October. (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm; https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/11/cpi-inflation-breakdown-august-2026.html) - [2026-10-07] Pre-September-release nowcasts already flagged acceleration risk from this same energy channel, with the Cleveland Fed's nowcast at that date showing Cleveland Fed nowcast | 0.53% | 3.60% | 0.20% | 2.39% | 7 Oct for September headline MoM — well above the 0.4% strike — suggesting the energy-driven overshoot pattern seen in August did not fade immediately. (https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/us-cpi-preview-september-2026-forecasts-and-the-core-cpi-outlook) - [2026-10-06] New York Fed research confirms a second, compounding inflationary channel still building: tariff pass-through to domestic goods is incomplete and still rising, since tariffs also affect U.S.-made goods prices...the tariffs' effect on U.S. producer prices takes time; in the first six months after a tariff is raised, producer prices rise only a little, then the response builds, roughly doubling over the following six months . This implies tariffs imposed through mid-2026 (steel/aluminum, autos, forced-labor Section 301 tariffs effective July 2026, pharmaceuticals effective July-September 2026) will still be feeding incremental retail price increases into the November reading. (https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/10/how-fast-do-tariffs-pass-through-into-consumer-prices/) - [2026-10-09] A fresh tariff escalation layer is also active: multiple new or expanded duties took effect in Q3 2026, including Section 301 forced-labor tariff (global) | 10% or 12.5% | Active — effective July 24, 2026 and patented pharmaceuticals (global) 100% tariff, effective July 31, 2026 for listed companies and September 29, 2026 for all others — both of which post-date the spring tariff surge and are still working through the 6–12 month pass-through window the NY Fed describes, adding upside risk into Q4 2026 prints. (https://zonos.com/docs/guides/us-tariff-changes) - [2026-10-06] Diesel/fuel-oil prices, a leading indicator for broader freight and food costs, remain extremely elevated: diesel averaged $6.32 per gallon on Oct. 6, 2026, up 71.7% from $3.68 a year earlier , a cost pressure that historically feeds into food-away-from-home and goods prices with a lag, a channel that could still be rising into the November reference month. (https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-cards/study/us-gas-prices/) - [2026-10-11] A third-party CPI forecasting model (Long Forecast) projects continued acceleration into November, estimating CPI forecast for November 2026: the forecast for the beginning of November 3.440%, maximum rate 3.689%, average interest rate for the month 3.461%, CPI at the end 3.480%, change for November 0.040 points on the year-over-year index — consistent with continued above-trend monthly momentum rather than a sharp deceleration. (https://longforecast.com/us-cpi) - [2026-10-11] Historical precedent for this exact mechanism exists within 2026 itself: the market's own base-rate reference class shows 3 of the last 7 months (Mar–May) printed above 0.4%, and all three episodes coincided with tariff and energy shocks of a similar type to the one still unresolved (Iran war/Hormuz disruption, escalating tariffs) — meaning the conditions that previously produced "Yes" outcomes (energy spikes plus tariff pass-through) are simultaneously present again heading into November, unlike the calmer Jun–Jul period. BOTTOM LINE: The clearest path to YES is a continuation or renewed flare-up of the Iran-war-driven energy price shock (gasoline/diesel at or near record highs through early October) combined with still-building tariff pass-through into U.S. producer and retail goods prices (NY Fed's 6–12 month lag dynamic), both of which already produced a 0.4% print in August and a nowcast above 0.4% for September; if gasoline/energy prices remain elevated or rise further into November (e.g., from continued Strait of Hormuz disruption or a new Middle East escalation) alongside ongoing tariff-driven goods inflation, a repeat >0.4% November print is plausible. NOT FOUND: No gasoline/energy price data specifically for the November 2026 reference period (only through early October was available); no direct Street consensus forecast for the November 2026 CPI monthly change (forecasts found cover September 2026 or longer-run 2026 figures only); no confirmation of whether Strait of Hormuz transit disruptions will persist, worsen, or fully resolve before November.

YES means: the real-world outcome where the BLS reports the November 2026 CPI-U (all-items, seasonally adjusted) monthly change as strictly greater than 0.4% when published on December 10, 2026. This dimension argues for NO (November print ≤0.4%, or data effectively unable to exceed that threshold by the close). - [2026-10-06] EIA's October Short-Term Energy Outlook confirms the BLS August/September energy spike is a one-off: "We forecast retail gasoline prices will be about the same in October as September and then slowly decrease with crude oil prices." A deceleration into November is the EIA's own base case, not an upside risk. (https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf) - [2026-10-08] Even with Middle East supply disruptions pushing futures higher, pump prices have already begun retreating from their peak: "U.S. gasoline prices have fallen for a second straight week... AAA put the national average at $4.36 per gallon Thursday, down about five cents from a week ago." This rollover, two releases before the November report, reduces the odds of a repeat of August's energy-driven 0.4% jump. (https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Gasoline-Prices-Set-October-Record-Even-as-National-Average-Slips.html) - [2026-01-20, published research] A rent-gap model finds the post-pandemic shelter surge has fully unwound and forecasts continued deceleration: "shelter inflation will be 2.5 percentage points over the first half of 2026, 2.1 percentage points over the second half of 2026... on an annualized basis." Since shelter carries roughly a third of CPI weight, a sub-2.2% annualized H2 shelter pace mechanically caps how far headline CPI can run even if energy or goods prices wobble. (https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1051137725000762) - [2026-06-10 data, blog dated 2026-06] Independent analysis of the BLS's own May release shows the shelter deceleration is already visible in the data, not just forecasts: "The June 10, 2026 data release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) included data through May 2026. Shelter inflation increased by 0.3% in May and stood at 3.4% year-over-year, indicating that housing-related price pressures continue to ease." (https://perc.tamu.edu/blog/2026/06/shelter-cpi.html) - [2026-10-11] A continuously updated model-based CPI tracker, while not an official forecast, projects only marginal further acceleration into November: it shows the "CPI forecast for November 2026. The forecast for the beginning of November 3.440%. Maximum rate 3.689%, while minimum 3.234%. Average interest rate for the month 3.461%. CPI at the end 3.480%, change for November 0.040 points" — i.e., an implied trajectory consistent with sub-0.4% monthly moves, not an acceleration above the strike. (https://longforecast.com/us-cpi) - [2026-10-06] Government funding is locked in past the release date with no fresh shutdown threat identified in the last 30 days: the only new flashpoint flagged by trackers is "We finalized inputs into the model on October 1, 2026. This month's forecast does not specifically account for market events after that day." — i.e., even energy-side volatility is already baked into official agency planning, with BLS/EIA data collection itself unaffected by any funding lapse. (https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/) - [2026-10-09] A goods/freight-cost analysis previewing the (still unreleased) September print separately flags that tariff- and freight-driven cost pressure is a two-sided risk rather than a certainty for November, noting cost increases "typically reach consumer prices with a one- to three-month lag," meaning any pass-through could still land below the 0.4 threshold given how diluted it is across the basket relative to the dominant, decelerating shelter component. (https://www.exponential-tech.ai/post/september-2026-cpi-forecast) - [2026-10-01, Q3 2026 survey] Independent of the headline, the labor-market/output backdrop professional forecasters cite for cooling price pressure includes a current-quarter CPI path forecast at "current-quarter headline CPI inflation will average 2.3 percent at an annual rate, down from their prediction of 3.0 percent in the previous survey" — a pace roughly consistent with sub-0.4% average monthly prints if spread evenly, reinforcing a moderating glide path into Q4. (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/spf-q3-2026) - [2026-10-11] Historically, of the last ~14 reported monthly SA all-items CPI prints, only the three tariff-driven spring 2026 months (Mar–May) strictly exceeded +0.4%, and the three most recent available readings (June, July, August) landed at or below that threshold — status-quo inertia favors a repeat sub-0.4%-or-exactly-0.4% outcome absent a fresh shock. (synthesis of BLS releases, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm) BOTTOM LINE: The dominant, heavily-weighted shelter component is on a well-documented, data-confirmed decelerating path (sub-2.2% annualized in H2 2026), gasoline/energy prices have already begun rolling over from their September–early-October peak per EIA's own forecast and AAA spot data, and both the Cleveland Fed's near-term model and automated CPI trackers point to November monthly readings clustering at or below 0.4% rather than decisively above it — all of which, combined with secured government funding through the December 10 release date, support a NO resolution absent a new, large and immediate supply shock. NOT FOUND: No official FactSet/Bloomberg or Fed staff point forecast specifically for the November 2026 monthly CPI change (such previews typically emerge only in the 1–2 weeks before the December 10 release, after the October 2026 print due November 10); no evidence either way on how the recent gasoline-price volatility (record highs tied to Middle East supply disruptions) will net out by the November reference period.