Will the Swiss National Bank hike 1-25bps at the December monetary policy assessment?

- [2026-09-24] The SNB's official monetary policy assessment left the SNB policy rate unchanged at 0% , marking the fifth consecutive hold since the June 2025 cut to zero. Source: snb.ch official press release. - [2026-09-24] In the same release, the SNB stated average annual inflation at 0.7% for 2026, 0.8% for 2027 and 0.8% for 2028, with the forecast based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0% over the entire forecast horizon — i.e., the SNB's own conditional forecast still assumes no hike through 2028. Source: snb.ch. - [2026-10-01] Switzerland's Federal Statistical Office reported September CPI rising 1.0% year-on-year, up from 0.8% in August 2026 , confirming a continued mild upward inflation trend driven mainly by energy prices. Source: instaforex.com / FSO data. - [2026-10-08] SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel said, two days ago relative to today, that he sees no need to adjust monetary policy at this stage, as inflation remains within the central bank's 0%-2% price stability range, stating "We remain comfortably within the price stability range of 0% to 2%" . Source: FXStreet, citing Reuters. - [2026-10-08] Schlegel also noted that the economic outlook remains subject to significant uncertainty, particularly due to geopolitical tensions surrounding the ongoing war in Iran, which remains a source of risk for the inflation outlook and could complicate future monetary policy decisions . Source: FXStreet. - [2026-09-24] Reuters poll cited in coverage: all 35 economists in a Reuters poll published on 21 September expected the policy rate to remain at 0% for the September meeting, and most expected hold through year-end at that time. Source: tiomarkets.com. - [2026-09-24] Post-decision, CNBC reported market pricing shifted meaningfully: traders see roughly even odds of a December hike and more than a 90% chance that the SNB begins raising rates by early 2027 . Source: CNBC. - [2026-09-24] CNBC additionally noted LSEG's data shows traders are betting on the SNB's key rate rising to at least 0.75% by next September , indicating markets expect a multi-step hiking cycle beginning around year-end. Source: CNBC. - [~2026-08-29] A Swiss Bankers Association survey (published roughly six weeks ago) found all the bankers surveyed expect the SNB to keep its rate at 0% for the rest of 2026, with 60% expecting the policy to remain in place next year , while some 40% expect the SNB to start hiking rates next year, with most of these forecasting an interest rate of 0.25% — i.e., professional forecasters are more skeptical of a December hike than market pricing implies. Source: globalbankingandfinance.com. - [~2026-09-29] UBS economists, quoted in coverage of the September decision, flagged currency weakness as a risk factor: "Swiss franc depreciation of more than 2% against the euro and more than 1% against the US dollar since the last SNB meeting in June could increase concerns that inflation will accelerate more than previously anticipated," adding "the SNB has a history of surprising markets" . Source: congress.net (UBS note). - [2026-10-11] Schedule: the next (and question-relevant) SNB monetary policy assessment is confirmed for 10 December 2026, the next scheduled monetary policy assessment . No interim/emergency meeting has been announced. Source: admiralmarkets.com / financecalendar.com. - [2026-09-29] A Lombard Odier house view argued as the Swiss franc has depreciated against the euro and dollar since the beginning of the year and the interest rate differential with the Fed and ECB continues to grow, a first interest rate rise from the SNB is likely in December , representing one asset manager's bullish-for-hike view, though not consensus. BOTTOM LINE: As of October 11, 2026, the SNB's policy rate remains at 0% after five consecutive holds, its own September forecast still assumes 0% through 2028, and its chairman said just three days ago there is "no need" to change policy; but market-implied odds (per CNBC/LSEG, independent of this contract) moved to roughly even for a December hike after September's meeting amid rising inflation (0.8%→1.0% YoY) and franc weakness, while bank economists remain more skeptical (zero of a Swiss Bankers Association survey expected a 2026 hike). This leaves genuine two-sided uncertainty heading into the December 10 decision, with official statements leaning toward continuity (hold) and market pricing leaning toward a close call. NOT FOUND: No SNB interim assessment commentary from November 2026 (not yet published as of this writing); no confirmed post-October-8 shift in Schlegel's or the Governing Board's stance; no official SNB "quarterly bulletin" summary of the September meeting (due "late October 2026" per schedule) was available yet.

- [2026-10-11] Historical base rate of SNB hikes at scheduled quarterly assessments since 2022 (the current tightening/easing cycle began): the SNB has hiked at 5 of the last ~13 assessments (Jun'22 +50bp, Sep'22 +75bp, Dec'22 +50bp, Mar'23 +50bp, Jun'23 +25bp), then held for two meetings and cut six consecutive times from Mar 2024 to Jun 2025, followed by four consecutive holds (Sep'25, Dec'25, Mar'26, Jun'26, and the latest Sep'26). The SNB raised its rate to 1.75% in June 2023 to fight inflation, then cut six times in a row between March 2024 and June 2025. - [2026-09-24] At the most recent assessment, the SNB held for a fifth consecutive meeting: The Swiss National Bank (SNB) kept its policy rate at 0% on 24 September 2026. The SNB kept the policy rate at 0% for the fifth meeting in a row. - [2026-09-24] Going into the September decision, consensus was unanimous for a hold: All 35 economists in a Reuters poll published on 21 September expected the policy rate to remain at 0%. - [2026-09-24] But forward guidance shifted hawkish and opened the door to a December hike: The bank's raised inflation and growth expectations and underlying commentary open the door to a possible rate rise in December, while maintaining optionality. - [2026-09-24] Market-implied odds reported same-day by CNBC (citing LSEG) put the December decision close to a coin-flip: Traders see roughly even odds of a December hike and more than a 90% chance that the SNB begins raising rates by early 2027. LSEG's data shows traders are betting on the SNB's key rate rising to at least 0.75% by next September. - [2026-09-24] UBS, previously expecting a later start to hikes, revised toward sooner: Swiss lender UBS had been expecting a preliminary hike from the SNB in June 2027. But in a note earlier this month, its economists said the falling value of the franc — as well as elevated oil prices and resilient U.S. and euro zone economies — raised the likelihood of the SNB enacting a hike earlier than expected. - [2025-12-16] An earlier (pre-cycle) analyst view was for no 2026 hikes at all: Karsten Junius, chief economist at J. Safra Sarasin, said in December 2025 that he did not expect policy rate changes in 2026 and forecast the first rate increase in the second half of 2027, a view reported by Morningstar. This has since been superseded by the more hawkish September 2026 commentary above. - [2026-10-11] A Swiss Bankers Association survey from August 2026 found broad expectation of no move through year-end: A Swiss Bankers Association survey from August found that all respondents expected 0% through the rest of 2026. Some 60% expected the rate to stay unchanged through 2027 (ActionForex). - [2026-10-11] A current OIS-derived tracker (RateProbability) shows December 2026 hike odds well below 50%: implied post-meeting rate of 0.12% with "34.8%" probability of a hike and roughly 0.48 expected hikes priced in, a meaningfully lower estimate than the ~50-50 reported by CNBC/LSEG in late September, suggesting odds have faded somewhat since the September meeting. - [2026-10-11] A separate model-based tracker (centralbank.watch) is lower still, estimating roughly a 24% hike probability and 76% probability of no change for the December assessment, versus a 0% cut probability — consistent with the "hold is base case, hike is a live possibility" framing from the September meeting commentary. - [2026-10-11] Procedurally, the SNB's own mandate framework means hikes historically occur only when the conditional inflation forecast threatens to exceed the 2% ceiling; current forecasts remain well inside the 0-2% band: The new forecast puts average inflation at 0.7% in 2026 and 0.8% in both 2027 and 2028. This low/benign inflation backdrop is the main structural reason a hold remains the modal outcome rather than a hike. BOTTOM LINE: Historically SNB hikes have clustered in tight inflationary episodes (2022-2023) and the base rate of a hike at any single given meeting during the current near-zero, low-inflation regime is low; market-implied odds for the December 2026 meeting have moved from a reported near-50/50 split right after the hawkish September hold down to roughly 25-35% in more recent OIS-based trackers, making a hold still the more likely outcome but a hike a genuinely live, non-trivial possibility. NOT FOUND: An official, up-to-date Reuters/Bloomberg economist poll specifically for the December 10, 2026 SNB meeting (post-September decision) was not located; only September-meeting polls and third-party rate-probability trackers of varying methodology were found, and no Kalshi-specific pricing was sought per instructions.

YES means: the SNB raises its policy rate by 1-25bps (realistically to 0.25%) at the December 10, 2026 monetary policy assessment. - [2026-10-08] Raiffeisen Switzerland became the first major Swiss bank to explicitly forecast a hike, stating "For the first time since the return to zero interest rates, we already expect the SNB to raise its policy rate from 0.00 to 0.25 percent in December." This accompanied a sharp GDP upgrade. Raiffeisen Switzerland raised its 2026 GDP forecast for Switzerland from 0.8% to 1.7%. Source: finews.com. - [2026-10-08] Raiffeisen's rationale: the Swiss economy is now operating close to its potential, while inflation remains comfortably within the bank's target range of 0–2%, making the zero-interest-rate policy increasingly inappropriate. Source: swissinfo.ch. - [2026-10-01] A separate industry commentary reports a matching hawkish call from KOF: KOF expects a 25-basis-point increase at the December monetary policy assessment. Source: meyka.com. - [2026-10-09] A trade-weighted franc depreciation already confirmed by the SNB itself: Schlegel stated the franc's "depreciation was in line with the widening of interest rate differentials between the major currency areas and Switzerland" in his September 24 introductory remarks, underscoring that currency weakness is already acknowledged by the Bank as linked to the global rate gap — a channel that historically triggers corrective SNB action. Source: theindustryspread.com citing SNB remarks. - [2026-10-08] USD/CHF has risen to multi-month highs (near 0.833, highest since late May) as USD/CHF paused a three-session advance, holding near 0.8330, with traders assigning a 78.3% probability to another Fed move in December , widening the policy gap further and adding imported-inflation pressure that could tip the SNB toward a hike. Source: tradingpedia.com. - [2026-09-24] UBS, previously dovish, has already moved its call earlier in response to currency and oil dynamics: UBS had been expecting a preliminary hike from the SNB in June 2027, but in a note earlier this month its economists said the falling value of the franc, elevated oil prices and resilient U.S. and euro zone economies raised the likelihood of the SNB enacting a hike earlier than expected. Source: CNBC. - [2026-09-29] An asset manager (Lombard Odier) argues the move would be low-risk policy-wise even if executed: even if a first interest-rate hike is implemented in December, the tightening would be done from a position of relative strength, and given a neutral level for Swiss rates probably in the 0.5–1.0% range, they would still be in accommodative territory at that point. This removes a common objection (fear of over-tightening) to a December move. Source: am.lombardodier.com. - [2026-09-24] The SNB itself softened its currency-intervention language at the September meeting — shifting from an 'increased willingness to intervene' to being 'also willing to be active in the foreign exchange market as necessary' — which analysts read as the Bank explicitly choosing to let rate policy (rather than FX intervention) do more of the work going forward, consistent with preparing markets for a hike. Source: vibetrader.com. - [2026-10-08] Briefs.co quoted LB Macro's CEO Luigi Buttiglione characterizing the September shift as laying groundwork: "lays the groundwork for the SNB to eventually join the hiking cycle, although the timing is fluid and contingent also on the actions by the Fed and especially the ECB." Source: briefs.co. - [2026-10-09] Independent OIS-based data still shows money markets pricing meaningful hike risk for 2027 even as December-specific odds have faded somewhat: economists generally anticipate that the SNB will keep its policy rate at 0% over the coming years, despite money market pricing that reflects the possibility of up to three rate hikes next year — indicating the market has not abandoned the hiking-cycle thesis, only debated its exact start date, leaving December a live first-mover candidate. Source: tradingpedia.com. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest case for YES rests on a concrete, named, dated forecast change: Raiffeisen (Oct 8) and KOF (per Oct 1 commentary) now explicitly call for a 25bp December hike to 0.25%, backed by an upgraded 2026 GDP forecast (0.8%→1.7%), a confirmed widening Fed-SNB/ECB-SNB rate gap, softer SNB FX-intervention language that shifts the policy burden toward rates, and UBS's parallel pull-forward of its hike timeline — together constituting a credible, sourced path to a December move even though it remains a minority (not consensus) view among bank economists. NOT FOUND: No confirmed statement from the SNB Governing Board itself (post-October-8) endorsing a December hike; no November 2026 Reuters/Bloomberg economist poll was located that would show whether other major banks have joined Raiffeisen's and KOF's hike call.

YES means: the SNB raises its policy rate by 1-25bps at the 10 December 2026 monetary policy assessment (any announced hike within that range resolves Yes); the NO case argues the rate stays at 0% (or moves outside that band, e.g., stays flat or cuts). - [2026-09-24] The SNB's own primary-source press release states plainly: it puts average annual inflation at 0.7% for 2026, 0.8% for 2027 and 0.8% for 2028, and the forecast is based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 0% over the entire forecast horizon. This is the bank's own conditional baseline, not a market guess, and it embeds no hike anywhere through 2028. Source: snb.ch. - [2026-09-24] The same release frames the current 0% stance as sufficient, not merely tolerable: according to the conditional inflation forecast, inflation will continue to rise somewhat in the fourth quarter, before declining again over the course of 2027 , i.e., the Q4 pickup the SNB itself acknowledges is already priced into its no-change forecast. Source: snb.ch. - [2026-09-26] Two days after the hold, Schlegel told Swiss broadcaster SRF the SNB is in a "comfortable" position, saying "If you look at our inflation forecasts, we're pretty much right in the middle of the range," and that the SNB's concerns about price stability aren't any higher than usual. This is a second, independent dovish data point bracketing the Oct 8 remarks already on file, showing continuity of message over two full weeks. Source: swissinfo.ch/Bloomberg. - [2026-09-24] Schlegel explicitly rejected spillover-driven tightening when asked about peer central banks hiking, saying "We make monetary policy for Switzerland." This undercuts the Fed/ECB-divergence narrative some desks use to justify a December SNB hike. Source: CNBC. - [2026-09-24] The SNB's reaction to currency weakness was to soften its FX-intervention language rather than signal a rate move: Bloomberg reported the Swiss National Bank dialed down its threat of currency intervention as a weakening in the franc prompted it to pivot toward more vigilance on inflation, with officials leaving their interest rate at zero while raising projections for consumer prices slightly — the chosen lever was rhetoric/FX tools, not the policy rate. Source: Bloomberg. - [2026-09-24] A historical-poll comparison shows how SNB decisions tend to track overwhelming pre-meeting consensus rather than market-implied "live" pricing: a year earlier, all but two of 40 economists polled by Reuters in the December 3-8 period expect the SNB to leave its key interest rate on hold on December 11 , and the bank duly held — illustrating the institution's strong status-quo bias at December meetings specifically. Source: Reuters (Dec 2025 poll). - [2026-09-24] Going into the most recent live meeting, forecasters were still uniformly dovish on direction even as markets later repriced: a Reuters poll days before the September decision found the SNB will keep its main policy rate at 0.00% on September 25, its first pause since December 2023, according to all but one of 41 economists in the September 17-22 Reuters poll — underscoring that economist consensus, not futures pricing, has been the more reliable predictor of actual SNB action this cycle. Source: Reuters/Yahoo Finance. - [2026-10-11] Independent model-based trackers referenced in prior research now put December hike odds well under 50% (34.8% OIS-implied, ~24% in a separate model), a markdown from the ~50/50 reported by CNBC immediately after the September meeting — consistent with fading hike conviction as the hawkish-surprise effect from September wears off. (Not independently re-fetched here, but corroborated by the across-source consensus above that the SNB's own forecast and chairman commentary remain unchanged in tone through early October.) - [2026-10-01] Even with September CPI accelerating to 1.0% y/y, that print sits squarely in the "middle of the range" language Schlegel used on Sept 26 and Oct 8, i.e., still far from the 2% ceiling that has historically triggered SNB tightening (the 2022-23 hiking cycle began only once inflation breached well above 2%). - [2026-09-24] The SNB flagged that its own near-term inflation bump is a transitory energy effect expected to reverse: this decrease is due to the fact that energy inflation, which is currently significantly elevated, is likely to decline again in the coming quarters — a structural reason the Governing Board can treat the Q4 pickup as self-correcting rather than hike-worthy. Source: snb.ch. BOTTOM LINE: Every primary-source statement from the SNB itself (Sept 24 press release) and every Schlegel public comment from Sept 24 through Oct 8 is unambiguously status-quo: the bank's own conditional forecast assumes 0% through 2028, inflation is framed as "comfortable" and transitory, and the preferred tool for franc weakness is rhetoric/FX intervention, not the policy rate — historically the SNB has moved only when poll consensus already expected it to, and consensus going into September was unanimous for a hold that happened; no comparable pre-December hawkish consensus has yet formed. NOT FOUND: No post-October-8 SNB communication (quarterly bulletin or summary of monetary policy discussion, due "late October 2026") was available to confirm whether the Governing Board's internal tone has shifted since early October; no dedicated Reuters/Bloomberg economist poll specifically for the December 10, 2026 meeting was located.