Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?

- [2026-10-09] Silver Bulletin's own landing page states Trump's approval hit an all-time-low net rating over the weekend of **-23.5**, bouncing back slightly to **-21.9** as of the update date, driven partly by a favorable TIPP poll; issue approval on trade (-29.0) and the economy (-33.2) hit all-time lows. https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin - [2026-10-08] A Yahoo/USA Today roundup reports Silver Bulletin's approval average at **37.1% approve, 60.1% disapprove**, alongside RealClearPolitics (38.3% approve) and NYT (37% approve); a same-day Pew poll separately showed Trump at a record-low 30% approval. https://yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trumps-approval-rating-sinks-second-211242590.html - [2026-10-01] Silver Bulletin update noted Trump "yet again" hit an all-time approval low of net **-23**, with net approval sitting at **-22.7** that day — worse than at the comparable point in his first term (-11.0) or Biden's second year (-8.8). https://open.substack.com/pub/natesilver/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin?r=gjo0m - [2026-09-24] Net approval fell to **-22.4** in Nate Silver's tracker, described as "its lowest point across either of his White House terms," with overall approval at **37.6%** in the Sept. 23 average. https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trumps-approval-rating-hits-time-112659471.html - [2026-09-24] Wikipedia's polling aggregation table lists Silver Bulletin at **37.4% approve / 60.4% disapprove (net -23.0)** for Sept. 24, with other trackers (FiftyPlusOne 34.7%, Economist 35.0%) already dipping to or near 35%, though Silver Bulletin itself remained a few points above that level. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_second_Trump_presidency - [2026-10-08] Forbes' daily-updated midterms tracker cites Trump's approval at **37-38%** in the Silver Bulletin average, attributing weakness to Iran-war fatigue and economic concerns, alongside Democrats favored by 9 points on the generic ballot. https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2026/10/08/hottest-2026-midterm-races-republican-hinson-leads-in-iowa-senate-contest-democrat-brown-ahead-in-ohio-updated-daily/ - [2026-04-xx] Earlier in 2026 (spring), Silver's average had already fallen below 40% for the first time in the second term, reaching **39.7% approval / -17.4 net**, attributed to the Iran war and its economic fallout — showing the downward trend began well before the autumn lows. https://www.newsweek.com/nate-silver-warns-trump-approval-drops-to-record-low-profound-problems-11760058 - [2026-02-09] Silver Bulletin net approval stood at **-13.7**, with strong disapproval breaking 46% for the first time — an intermediate point in the year's overall decline. https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-approval-rating-record-nate-silver-11495027 - [2026-01-29] At roughly the one-year mark, Silver Bulletin had Trump at **41% approve / 56% disapprove**, still well above the 35% threshold. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/donald-trump-approval-ratings-one-093057284.html - [2026-09-24] Wikipedia notes that across 2025-2026 Trump's approval "steadily declined to an average of 36 to 37%," and in August 2026 he was "the second most unpopular president at this stage" in polling history since the 1940s. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_second_Trump_presidency BOTTOM LINE: Silver Bulletin's approval percentage has trended steadily downward all year (41% in January to roughly 37-38% approve by early October 2026, with net approval repeatedly hitting new all-time lows around -22 to -23.5), but the approval figure itself has not yet reached 35% on the resolution source — it remains roughly 2-3 points above that line with the trend pointing further downward amid Iran-war fatigue, economic/inflation discontent, and shutdown politics heading into the November midterms. NOT FOUND: An exact day-by-day Silver Bulletin approval-percentage time series (only the net-approval and periodic approval-percentage snapshots were available via secondary reporting); confirmation of whether the Silver Bulletin trend line (the specific resolution series, as opposed to net approval or other aggregators) has touched 35% or below at any single-day reading in 2026.

- [2026-10-09] Silver Bulletin's current approval average sits at roughly 37-38% approve / ~59-60% disapprove (net about -21.9 to -23.5, an all-time low for Trump's second term), as per Nate Silver's own site update. Over the weekend, Donald Trump hit yet another all-time approval rating low of net -23.5. As of today, he bounced back slightly to -21.9 . Source: https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin - [2026-10-10] A separate aggregator snapshot puts the Silver Bulletin figure at 38 percent approval that week. Trump has a 37% average approval rating in Nate Silver's poll tracker. Source: https://forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2026/10/09/hottest-2026-midterm-races-democrat-jackson-leads-in-maine-senate-race-republican-hinson-ahead-in-iowa-updated-daily - [2026-09-24] Wikipedia's aggregator table (sourced from Silver Bulletin) shows 37.4% approve / 60.4% disapprove on that date, consistent with a slow grinding decline rather than a sudden plunge. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_second_Trump_presidency - [2026-09-23] Newsweek reported Trump's overall approval stood at 37.6 percent in Silver Bulletin's September 23 average , and At day 612 of the current presidency, the tracker put him at minus 22.4, against minus 11.6 on the comparable day in 2018. Source: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-approval-rating-all-time-low-nate-silver-12482345 - [2026-03-30] Historical marker: Silver Bulletin's own average crossed into the 30s (sub-40%) for the first time in the second term around late March 2026, based on social commentary referencing the newsletter. Source: https://substack.com/@sullydish/note/c-235738761 - [2026-04-21] Earlier in 2026, Silver's average had been higher (~39.7%) before falling further after the Iran war and shutdown; Silver's average now places Trump's approval at 39.7 percent, with a net approval rating of -17.4—both new lows for his second term. Source: https://www.newsweek.com/nate-silver-warns-trump-approval-drops-to-record-low-profound-problems-11760058 - [2025-01-20 to present] Reference trajectory: Trump began his second term at 47% approval and has declined almost continuously since, per multiple aggregators. Trump began his term with a 47% approval rating, according to Gallup, and saw his popularity dip through his 100th day in office, when his job approval numbers reached historic lows not seen by any other president over the past several decades. Source: https://www.aol.com/president-trumps-approval-rating-heres-204035639.html - [Historical base rate, first term] In Trump's first term, Gallup's all-time low approval was 34% (after Jan. 6, 2021); his first-term average was 41%, the lowest ever recorded for any president since 1945. Donald Trump's average job approval rating for his first term was 41%, the lowest average rating recorded for any president since Gallup began asking the question in 1945. Trump also never reached a Gallup approval rating higher than 49% ; Gallup also noted Trump averaged 41% approval in his first term and is the only president not to receive a job rating of 50% or higher at any point in his presidency. He left office in January 2021 with the lowest rating of his presidency, 34% . He also hit 35% four separate times in 2017. Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/655955/trump-inaugural-approval-rating-historically-low-again.aspx - [2026-11-30 reported by Gallup, cited retrospectively] Gallup (a different pollster, not Silver Bulletin, but indicative of trend) reported Trump's approval at 36% in late Nov 2025, with his all-time personal low (34%, from Jan. 2021) "approaching." President Donald Trump's job approval rating has slipped to a new second-term low point and is approaching his all-time low of 34%... His prior second-term low point in approval was a statistically similar 37% in July, and his all-time low was 34% in 2021, at the end of his first term after the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. Source: https://news.gallup.com/poll/699221/trump-approval-rating-drops-new-second-term-low.aspx - [2026-07-06/12] Pew Research separately found Trump's approval at 34% in July 2026, i.e. some individual pollsters have already shown 35%-or-below readings well before Silver Bulletin's smoothed average has. President Donald Trump's job approval rating – 34% as of mid-July – has changed little over the last few months. Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/08/06/trumps-job-approval-rating-is-low-by-historical-standards/ - [2026-10-08] Pew's most recent poll (Oct. 8, 2026) found Trump at just 30% approval nationally, though Silver Bulletin's own average on the same date was still 37.1%, illustrating that Silver Bulletin's house-effect-adjusted, multi-pollster average runs several points higher than some individual outlier polls (Pew, Reuters/Ipsos, CNN) that have already dipped to 30-34%. What do polling averages show? RealClearPolitics (Oct. 8): 38.3% approve, 59.4% disapprove New York Times (Oct. 8): 37% approve, 61% disapprove Silver Bulletin (Oct. 8): 37.1% approve, 60.1% disapprove Source: https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trumps-approval-rating-sinks-second-211242590.html BOTTOM LINE: The base rate strongly favors continued decline: Trump's second-term Silver Bulletin average has fallen almost monotonically from 47% (Jan 2025) to ~37-38% now, a historically unprecedented and still-accelerating erosion (worse than his own first-term net approval even after Jan. 6), and several individual pollsters already register 30-34%, well under 35; given the trend's persistence and multiple ongoing drags (economy/inflation, shutdown fallout, midterms), a Silver Bulletin print of ≤35% at some point before Dec 31, 2026 looks plausible/likely on trend extrapolation, though the smoothed aggregate has a few points of cushion left as of early October. NOT FOUND: An explicit historical frequency table of "how often presidential approval aggregates fall X points in Y months" as a formal base-rate model; exact daily Silver Bulletin approval-only (non-net) historical low for 2026; any specific forecaster probability estimates (e.g., from prediction markets or pundits) for this precise 35% threshold outside the contract itself.

YES means: Silver Bulletin's green trend-line approval percentage for Trump reads 35% or lower on at least one day between Jan 1 and Dec 31, 2026 (as finalized once the next data point posts). - [2026-10-09] Silver Bulletin's own site shows net approval hit an all-time low of -23.5 over the weekend of Oct 4-5, before a slight bounce to -21.9, with issue approval on trade (-29.0), the economy (-33.2) and inflation (-48.5) all at fresh all-time lows — confirming the decline is accelerating on the fundamentals that drive the topline number. https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin - [2026-10-10/11] Nate Silver posted on X that net approval fell further to -23.9 as of Saturday Oct 10, the lowest point in his entire 21-month tracking chart, and called the persistence of the decline "striking," noting "mean reversion around news events and economic data, but to a declining rather than steady baseline as in the 1st term." https://www.rawstory.com/tru-2678069950/ - [2026-10-08] Pew Research's Sept 28-Oct 4 survey put Trump's approval at 30%, his lowest of the second term, with disapproval at 68% — showing individual high-quality national polls are already well under the 35% line that feed into Silver's weighted average. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2026/10/08/with-americans-in-a-sour-mood-democratic-voters-are-more-engaged-in-midterms/ - [2026-10-05] Reuters/Ipsos recorded Trump at a record-low 32% approval, matching a low first set in September, reinforcing that multiple major pollsters are now printing sub-35% numbers simultaneously rather than as isolated outliers. https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2026/10/06/trumps-approval-rating-stagnates-at-record-low-32-in-latest-poll/ - [2026-09-24] On the same date, FiftyPlusOne (34.7%) and The Economist/YouGov (35.0%) were already at or below the 35% threshold while Silver Bulletin's own average stood at 37.4% — meaning two of the pollsters feeding Silver's model are already at the resolution line, so continued weight-shifting toward these colder polls could pull the aggregate average down to 35% without any single new shock. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_second_Trump_presidency - [2026-09-23] Silver's own tracker put net approval at a then-record -22.4, worse than at the comparable day of his first term (-11.6) or of Biden's second year, and noted that "strong disapproval" net is a much deeper -29.4, implying opposition is becoming more entrenched and less likely to reverse as approval erodes further. https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-approval-rating-all-time-low-nate-silver-12482345 - [2026-10-11] Government funding is set to lapse again on December 11, 2026 when the current continuing resolution expires, with a partial shutdown "possible if the parties cannot resolve disputes over spending levels, policy riders, defense funding, healthcare and Trump Administration authorities" — a concrete, dated catalyst sitting squarely inside the resolution window that could reproduce the sharp approval drops seen around prior 2025/2026 shutdown episodes. https://www.hklaw.com/en/insights/publications/2026/10/beyond-the-midterms-congress-faces-converging-year-end-deadlines - [2026-01-29 to 2026-10-09] Trajectory math: Silver Bulletin's approval fell from 41% (Jan 29) to about 37.1-37.4% (late Sept/early Oct), a roughly 3.6-4 point drop over 8+ months; but the pace within just the last two weeks of data (37.6% on Sept 23 to roughly 37% on Oct 9, with net falling from -22.4 to -23.9) is faster than the year's average rate, suggesting that even a modest further acceleration — plausible given a Dec 11 shutdown risk and ongoing economy/inflation/trade discontent — could close the remaining ~2-point gap to 35% before Dec 31. (derived from figures in https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/trumps-approval-rating-hits-time-112659471.html and https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin) - [2026-10-08] Forbes' daily midterms tracker additionally notes Democrats are now favored by 9 points on the generic ballot (up from 6.7 points on Sept 1), consistent with a broader erosion of Trump-aligned sentiment that typically co-moves with presidential approval heading into the Nov 3 midterms, which fall inside the resolution window and historically produce post-election approval dips for the president's party after bad results. https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2026/10/08/hottest-2026-midterm-races-republican-hinson-leads-in-iowa-senate-contest-democrat-brown-ahead-in-ohio-updated-daily/ BOTTOM LINE: The clearest path to YES is continuation-plus-mild-acceleration of the already-unprecedented, near-monotonic decline in Silver Bulletin's average (currently ~37%, net approval at an all-time -23.9), helped by component polls (Pew 30%, Reuters/Ipsos 32%, Economist/YouGov 35%, FiftyPlusOne 34.7%) already at or below 35%, with the Nov 3 midterms and a looming Dec 11 funding-deadline/shutdown risk providing concrete, dated catalysts inside the window that could supply the final 2-point push before Dec 31, 2026. NOT FOUND: A full day-by-day Silver Bulletin approval-percentage series (only periodic snapshots were available); any explicit Silver Bulletin commentary projecting when/if the average itself might cross 35%.

YES means: Silver Bulletin's green trend-line approval rating for Trump prints at or below 35% on at least one date between Jan 1–Dec 31, 2026 (once that datapoint is finalized). This dimension argues for NO — i.e., that the Silver Bulletin average stays above 35% all year. - [2026-10-09] Silver Bulletin's own site puts Trump's net approval at -21.9 after touching an all-time low of -23.5 over the weekend, which on a roughly 59-60% disapproval base implies an approve figure still around 37%, i.e. the series remains about 2 points above the 35% threshold even at its post-"all-time-low" level. https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin - [2026-10-05] The I&I/TIPP poll — one of the inputs feeding Silver Bulletin — reported Trump's approval "remains mostly steady as fall begins," with 39% approving in October versus 52% disapproving, "statistically unchanged from September's result of 38% approve, 52% disapprove" , and the pollster's own framing was that Trump "has steadied the ship midway through his presidential voyage" , directly contradicting any sharp, imminent breach of 35%. - [2026-10-01] ActiVote's monthly tracker found Trump's approval at 37.7%, "essentially unchanged from the 37.9% recorded in both July and August," indicating a plateau rather than continued decline into the low-to-mid 30s over the summer-into-fall stretch. - [2026-01-22 methodology note] Silver Bulletin explicitly smooths its average with "local polynomial regression," using "a blend of more aggressive and more conservative settings" chosen "empirically based on what produces more stable averages that are free from autoregression," meaning the published trend line is structurally resistant to being dragged down quickly by outlier polls (e.g., Pew's 30% or Reuters/Ipsos's 32%) the way a simple poll-of-polls would be. - [Historical precedent, first term] Statista's Gallup-based comparison shows that in Trump's first term, his approval also sank into the mid-30s, with "the only time Trump's approval was lower... during the same time in Trump's first term in 2017... at 35 percent" , but it was "back up to 40-42 percent by mid-2018" — a precedent for mean-reversion rather than a one-way ratchet once a trough is hit. - [2018-01-22] Gallup's own account of that first-term trough shows it was short-lived: ratings "eroded over the course of his first year in office but have since stabilized between 36% and 37%" , underscoring that sub-36% readings in Trump's history have historically been transient blips, not sustained plateaus. - [2026-01-22, Gallup-aggregated] Gallup's own standard-deviation analysis of Trump's first-term approval found it "just 2.3 points, meaning roughly two thirds of his job approval ratings have been either 2.3 points above or 2.3 points below his average rating (roughly between 37% and 41%)" — i.e., historically Trump's approval has rarely moved more than 2-3 points off its prevailing level in a short window, which is the same order of magnitude as the current ~2-point gap to 35% on Silver Bulletin. - [2025-11 era mechanism] Analysis of the prior (2025) shutdown episode found that after an initial slump, ratings recovered once the crisis resolved: "Trump's ratings will probably rebound if the shutdown ends soon. Unless something goes badly wrong with the US economy or the stock market, his ratings will probably return to net high single-digit negative, not net double-digit negative." This "shock-then-partial-recovery" pattern is a recurring feature of the data and argues against assuming the current post-shutdown-fatigue low simply continues straight down to 35%. - [2026-10-08] Even among outlets stacking up various trackers, Silver Bulletin remains the highest or near-highest of the major approval aggregators cited (37.1%, versus RealClearPolitics 38.3% but above NYT's 37% and well above Pew's 30%), reflecting Silver Bulletin's house-effects adjustment that discounts historically Trump-unfriendly pollsters like Reuters/Ipsos and Pew — the specific resolution source is methodologically among the more Trump-favorable trackers, raising the bar relative to headline-grabbing 30-32% single-poll readings. - [2026-10-09] Republican base loyalty remains largely intact even amid the broader slide: Trump's own claimed in-party approval figure and subsequent reporting put GOP approval in the mid-to-upper 80s/60s-plus range rather than collapsing, per coverage noting a decline from a self-reported "95%" to "67%" among some measures — still a high floor that limits how far a multi-partisan blended average like Silver Bulletin's can fall without a broad, simultaneous erosion across all partisan groups. https://www.ms.now/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/trump-approval-rating-republican-voters-midterm-elections BOTTOM LINE: On the resolution source itself, Trump's approval has stabilized/plateaued in the 37-38% range through early October 2026 even as net approval hit fresh lows, several contemporaneous trackers (TIPP, ActiVote) show no further erosion month-over-month, and Silver Bulletin's smoothing methodology plus historical precedent (quick reversion after prior troughs, a ~2.3-point typical swing band) suggest a further ~2-3 point slide to ≤35% within the next ~12 weeks is not assured, especially if post-shutdown or economic conditions stabilize. NOT FOUND: A day-by-day Silver Bulletin approval-only (not net) historical series to confirm the exact closest approach to 35% in 2026; any explicit statement from Silver Bulletin itself estimating how close its own trend line is to 35% or projecting its trajectory through December.