Above 10000 tuberculosis disease cases in the United States during 2026 — Above 10k

- [2026-03-23] CDC released the "2025 Provisional Tuberculosis (TB) Data Report" on World TB Day; this is the most recent full-year TB dataset published by CDC as of today. CDC released preliminary 2025 TB data showing TB cases in the United States remained elevated over pre-pandemic levels, with a slight decrease (1%) in cases compared to 2024, and there were 10,260 cases provisionally reported in 2025, compared to 10,395 cases in 2024. This 2025 figure is for the prior year, not 2026, and is itself still provisional pending finalization. - [2026-03-23] The provisional report of data submitted to the CDC's National Tuberculosis Surveillance System shows 10,260 TB cases were reported in 2025, with a corresponding rate of 3.0 cases per 100,000 population, a 1% decline in cases and 2% decline in the national TB rate from 2024 to 2025. - [2026-03-23] The states with the highest total cases in 2025 were California (2,150), Texas (1,295), New York (967), Florida (675), and Georgia (306). - [2026-03-23] As with previous years, the vast majority (77%) of US TB cases were in non-US–born people, with a corresponding rate of 15.4 cases per 100,000, while the rate for US-born people was 0.8 per 100,000. This underlying demographic driver has not reversed as of the latest reporting. - [2025-11-22] The most recent weekly NNDSS provisional table located (week 47, week ending Nov 22, 2025) shows cumulative YTD figures for 2025 that run well below the eventual finalized/provisional annual total: cumulative U.S. resident TB cases YTD stood at 7,910 for 2025 versus 9,033 for the same point in 2024 (stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/250497). - [2026-02-12] CDC's provisional 2025 data page states case counts underlying the 10,260 figure were based on data reported to the National Tuberculosis Surveillance System as of February 12, 2026 , meaning the final 2025 number was only consolidated roughly six weeks after the equivalent point in the 2026 cycle (i.e., well after year-end), and corresponds to a similar lag that would apply to 2026 data by the Jan 8, 2027 market-close date. - [2026-02-12 / ongoing] CDC's own data notes caution that NNDSS data are considered provisional and subject to change each week until the data are reconciled and verified with the state and territorial data providers to be the final official incidence counts for a given notifiable condition and year; cumulative counts of cases presented each week can increase or decrease as additional information becomes available; in any given year, for most conditions, cumulative provisional case counts and rates do not match finalized case counts and rates. This means any cumulative count visible on Jan 8, 2027 (the market's resolution date) is likely to materially understate the eventual final 2026 total, similar to how week-47 2025 data (7,910) was far below the eventual reported 10,260. - [2026 trend context] U.S. TB cases fell to an all-time low of 7,174 in 2020, then the CDC confirmed 10,388 cases in 2024 — the highest total since 2011 — before provisional 2025 data released March 23, 2026 showed a slight reduction to 10,260 cases, remaining sharply elevated compared to every year before the pandemic-era trough. No 2026-specific CDC annual or provisional report has yet been published (the next "Provisional 2026 Tuberculosis Data" release would be expected around World TB Day, March 24, 2027 — after this market's Jan 8, 2027 expiration). - [2026-10-11] No CDC dear-colleague letter, MMWR report, or provisional-data page specifically covering full-year 2026 TB totals could be located as of today; the most current official CDC annual-level figure remains the March 2026 release covering 2025. BOTTOM LINE: The last two confirmed full-year CDC totals (10,395 in 2024, 10,260 in 2025) both sit just above the 10,000 threshold, with a modest (~1%) year-over-year decline but no evidence of a trend steep enough to drop below 10,000 in 2026. However, the market resolves on Jan 8, 2027 using whatever Source-Agency data exists then — most likely incomplete NNDSS weekly provisional cumulative counts, which historically run far below the eventual finalized annual total (e.g., ~7,900 cumulative by late November vs. a ~10,260 final 2025 figure), creating resolution-source risk independent of the true epidemiological trend. NOT FOUND: Could not retrieve any 2026-dated weekly NNDSS cumulative case counts (the CDC Socrata API query for year=2026 TB data returned no rows, suggesting either a lag in publishing 2026 weekly tables to that endpoint or a schema/label change); no CDC provisional-2026-data page or MMWR report for 2026 was located; no official statement on which "Source Agency" counts will be used for the January 8, 2027 determination.

- [2026-03-23] CDC's provisional 2025 TB data (as reported to NTSS through Feb 12, 2026) show In 2025, 10,260 TB cases were provisionally reported with a rate of 3.0/100,000, continuing a run of case counts above 10,000 for a second straight year. https://www.cdc.gov/tb-data/aboutprovisionaldata/2025-provisional-data.html - [2026-03-24] The CDC Director's letter accompanying the release stated TB cases in the United States remained elevated over pre-pandemic levels, with a slight decrease (1%) in cases compared to 2024. There were 10,260 cases provisionally reported in 2025, compared to 10,395 cases in 2024 . https://www.cdc.gov/nchhstp/director-letters/2025-provisional-tb-data.html - [2025-12-XX] The finalized 2024 annual surveillance report confirms In 2024, 35 years later, the United States reported 10,388 TB cases with a corresponding incidence rate of 3.1 , the first finalized year above 10,000 cases since the early 2010s. https://www.cdc.gov/tb-surveillance-report-2024/executive-commentary/index.html - [2025-12-XX] CDC's 2024 commentary notes a persistent multi-year uptrend: the overall TB case counts and rates have been increasing since 2021. For the fourth consecutive year, case counts and rates increased, including a 7.9% increase in case count and a 6.9% increase in rate in 2024 as compared with 2023 . https://www.cdc.gov/tb-surveillance-report-2024/executive-commentary - [2025-12-XX] The size of prior annual increases has been shrinking: These increases in rates and case counts were smaller than the 15% increases in case counts and rates reported in 2023 as compared with 2022 , and 2025 reversed to a small decline, suggesting the post-pandemic rebound is plateauing just above the 10,000 threshold. https://www.cdc.gov/tb-surveillance-report-2024/executive-commentary - [2026-03-31] Independent medical-news coverage (Healio) corroborates the CDC release: there were 10,260 TB cases reported in 2025, down 1% from 2024. There was a 2% drop in cases per 100,000 people . https://www.healio.com/news/infectious-disease/20260331/tb-cases-decline-slightly-in-us-after-recent-surge - [2023-11-15] Reference-class history: 2022 counted The reported number of TB cases in the United States increased from 7,870 TB cases in 2021 to 8,331 TB cases in 2022, a 5.9% increase , far below the 10,000 mark. https://www.cdc.gov/tb/php/dear-colleague-letters/2023-reported-tuberculosis-2022.html - [2026-03-XX] A peer-reviewed CDC/EID analysis situates the current level historically: In 2023, the TB case count (n = 9,633) surpassed the count in 2013 (n = 9,238) , meaning the U.S. spent roughly a decade (2013–2022) below 10,000 before crossing back above it in 2024. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/32/3/25-1459_article - [2020-03-20] Pre-pandemic low point for context: In 2019, the United States reported 8,916 TB cases and an incidence rate of 2.7 cases per 100,000 persons... the lowest number of TB cases and lowest incidence rate on record, continuing a trend of declining cases and incidence since 1992 . https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/tb/statistics/reports/2019/Exec_Commentary.html - [2019-02-XX] 2018 figure for longer-run base rate: In 2018, a total of 9,029 new tuberculosis (TB) cases were reported in the United States, representing a 0.7% decrease from 2017 , underscoring that 2024–2025 (~10,260–10,388) are the only two years in roughly the last decade-plus above 10,000. BOTTOM LINE: Over the last 12 finalized/provisional years (2013–2025), the U.S. TB case count was below 10,000 in all years except the two most recent (2024: 10,388; 2025 provisional: 10,260), so the ">10,000" threshold is a very recent and narrow breach of a multi-year post-pandemic rebound that has now plateaued/slightly reversed (-1% in 2025); the outside view gives meaningful but not overwhelming odds of a third consecutive year above 10,000 in 2026, since the trend has flattened rather than continued its earlier double-digit growth. NOT FOUND: No official or provisional CDC count specific to calendar-year 2026 TB cases was available (the 2025 report is the most recent; full-year 2026 data won't be finalized until after the market's January 8, 2027 expiration), nor any independent prediction-market or expert forecast specifically estimating 2026 U.S. TB case totals.

YES means: the United States reports more than 10,000 tuberculosis disease cases for calendar year 2026 under whichever CDC/NNDSS Source-Agency data the market uses at the January 8, 2027 determination. - [2026-02-27] A national TB advocacy group reported that some states are reporting preliminary data to the National Tuberculosis Coalition of America that shows that the number of cases grew from 2024 and 2025 by between 10% and 20% , with multiple program managers independently flagging double-digit increases — a signal that underlying 2025-into-2026 transmission pressure in several jurisdictions runs hotter than the ~1% national decline reported by CDC. https://stateline.org/2026/02/27/tuberculosis-cases-have-been-rising-as-public-health-agencies-struggle-to-keep-up/ - [2026-05-02] A CDC MMWR analysis covering 2017–2023 found that large tuberculosis outbreaks in the country have surged sharply in recent years, doubling between 2017 and 2023 , with researchers identifying 50 large outbreaks across 23 states, up from 24 in 2014–2016 — evidence of a structural rise in close-contact transmission events that continues to feed the national case count into 2026. https://www.newsweek.com/cdc-warns-large-tuberculosis-outbreaks-doubled-in-us-since-mid-2010s-11906565 - [2026-05-02] The same CDC data show outbreak-linked patients are disproportionately drawn from high-risk settings: substance use, 27 percent vs. 12 percent, homelessness, 9 percent vs. 5 percent, or incarceration 11 percent vs. 3 percent , risk factors (shelters, jails, ICE facilities) that are actively generating new 2026 case clusters, not shrinking. https://www.newsweek.com/cdc-warns-large-tuberculosis-outbreaks-doubled-in-us-since-mid-2010s-11906565 - [2026-08-26] An outbreak tracker lists an active 2026 TB cluster in Alaska. https://viruswatcher.com/outbreaks/tuberculosis - [2026-08-18] The same tracker documents a newly launched investigation into a possible TB exposure at MacArthur High School in Irving, Texas, "saying it may have happened during the previous school year," indicating ongoing case-finding activity that will add confirmed 2026 cases. https://viruswatcher.com/outbreaks/tuberculosis - [2026-08-12] Colorado officials confirmed an active TB case tied to the Aurora ICE processing center in June 2026, with public advocates urging the state to take more action after health officials continue to be denied access to an ICE detention center to investigate a potential tuberculosis outbreak , a congregate-setting outbreak risk specific to 2026. https://viruswatcher.com/outbreaks/tuberculosis - [2026-01-29] San Francisco's health department issued an advisory on a school-linked TB outbreak at Archbishop Riordan High School, noting SFDPH is conducting a large-scale TB contact investigation related to an outbreak at Archbishop Riordan High School (ARHS) in San Francisco. To date, three cases of active TB disease have been diagnosed in persons associated with ARHS since November 2025 — an active contact-tracing effort likely to surface additional confirmed 2026 cases. https://media.api.sf.gov/documents/TB_Health_Advisory_-_Suspected_TB_Outbreak_Jan_2026-SFDPH-FINAL-1.29.2026_kToXjfD.pdf - [2026-07-XX] A health-journalism briefing summarizing the CDC's current posture states plainly that more than 10,000 cases were reported in the United States in 2025, with roughly 1,000 in New York alone , underscoring that the two-year run above the 10,000 threshold (2024, 2025) is the base from which 2026 starts, not a declining baseline near the line. https://healthjournalism.org/blog/2026/07/tuberculosis-on-the-rise-in-us-local-story-angles-to-consider/ - [2026-03-23] The CDC's own 2025 provisional release still frames the national trend as "elevated," not reversing, noting cases remained elevated over pre-pandemic levels, with a slight decrease (1%) in cases compared to 2024. There were 10,260 cases provisionally reported in 2025, compared to 10,395 cases in 2024 — a ~1.3% dip that would need to roughly double in magnitude for 2026 to fall below 10,000, with no cited mechanism for an accelerating decline. https://cdc.gov/nchhstp/director-letters/2025-provisional-tb-data.html - [2026-03-XX] CIDRAP's independent write-up of the same data confirms the non-US-born driver is unchanged and still dominant: the vast majority (77%) of US TB cases were in non-US–born people, with a corresponding rate of 15.4 cases per 100,000. The rate for US-born people was 0.8 per 100,000 , meaning any continued migration-linked TB importation in 2026 — a driver largely outside short-term U.S. policy control — sustains the >10,000 floor. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/tuberculosis/cdc-data-suggest-small-decline-us-tb-cases - [2026-03-24] At the city level, even where cases are falling, absolute totals stay historically high: New York City reported 743 TB cases in 2025, an 11 percent decrease from 2024 but still "remain elevated compared to recent years," indicating the national total is being held up by large absolute case loads in major metros even amid local declines. https://home4.nyc.gov/site/doh/about/press/pr2026/world-tuberculosis-day-2026.page BOTTOM LINE: The strongest YES case rests on (1) two consecutive confirmed/provisional years already above 10,000 with only a shallow ~1% dip, (2) an unreversed structural driver (77% non-US-born cases) feeding the total, and (3) multiple live 2026 outbreak investigations (Alaska, Texas school, Colorado ICE facility, San Francisco school) plus state-level reports of 10–20% case growth in some jurisdictions, all of which argue the 2026 total is more likely to stay above than fall below the 10,000 threshold. NOT FOUND: No CDC weekly NNDSS cumulative table specific to 2026 TB case counts could be retrieved via the Socrata API (query returned HTTP 400/no 2026-labeled rows), so no direct year-to-date 2026 national case tally exists to corroborate these qualitative signals with a hard running total.

YES means: the finalized/provisional CDC count of U.S. TB disease cases reported for calendar year 2026 is determined to be above 10,000 as of the January 8, 2027 resolution check. - [2026-03-23] The only confirmed full-year CDC figures remain 10,388 (2024, finalized) and 10,260 (2025, provisional), and the 2025 number already represents a 1% decline in cases from 2024, falling from 10,395 to 10,260 — the first down-year since the pandemic trough, meaning the post-COVID rebound has stalled rather than accelerated. https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/tuberculosis/cdc-data-suggest-small-decline-us-tb-cases - [2026-09-30] CDC's own NNDSS Weekly Data Socrata dataset, last updated September 30, 2026, still carries the footnote marking " Case counts for reporting years 2024 and 2025 are provisional and subject to change " with no 2026 reference in that footnote, indicating 2026 case totals have not yet been treated as a stabilized reporting year even nine months into it — a structural lag that works against any definitive "above 10,000" confirmation by the Jan 8, 2027 close. https://data.cdc.gov/NNDSS/NNDSS-Weekly-Data/x9gk-5huc - [2026-02-12] The 2025 provisional total of 10,260 was itself only "locked" using data as of February 12, 2026 — "This report reflects data reported to the National Tuberculosis Surveillance System as of February 12, 2026" — roughly six weeks after year-end; applying the same lag pattern to 2026, the figure visible at the Jan 8, 2027 resolution check would be a far-earlier, incomplete snapshot than the eventual true 2026 total. https://www.cdc.gov/tb-data/aboutprovisionaldata/2025-provisional-data.html - [2026-10-11 analog] Mirroring the week-47 2025 pattern already identified (7,910 cumulative vs. 10,260 eventual final), CDC's own guidance states plainly that " NNDSS data are considered provisional and subject to change each week until the data are reconciled and verified...Cumulative counts of cases presented each week can increase or decrease as additional information becomes available...cumulative provisional case counts and rates do not match finalized case counts and rates " — so whatever cumulative 2026 NNDSS count exists on Jan 8, 2027 is structurally almost certain to sit well below the true annual total, and if Kalshi's Source Agency hierarchy defaults to that provisional NNDSS snapshot rather than waiting for a reconciled report, the visible number could easily read below 10,000 even if the true 2026 burden matches or exceeds 2025's. - [2026-03-23] CDC states explicitly that " The annual surveillance report is typically released later in the fall " — i.e., the authoritative, reconciled annual TB surveillance report (the kind that confirmed 10,388 for 2024) is not expected until well after January 8, 2027, reinforcing that the market will likely resolve on an incomplete data source, not a finalized one. - [2026-10-09] National disease-surveillance attention and CDC resources in 2026 have been dominated by a large, resource-intensive measles response — "2026 Case Total Is 78% Above the Full 2025 Count" per CDC's measles data updated October 9, 2026 — plausibly straining state/local reporting bandwidth for other notifiable conditions like TB and slowing timely TB case ascertainment and reporting into NNDSS this year relative to prior years. - [2026-05-02] Even the CDC's own outbreak-trend narrative frames large TB outbreaks as a persistent, chronic sub-problem rather than a scaling emergency: 50 large outbreaks over 2017–2023 "accounted for 1,092 cases out of nearly 62,000 TB cases reported during the seven-year period" — under 2% of the total burden — so outbreak dynamics are not a mechanism likely to push the aggregate meaningfully above the 10,000 line this year beyond the already-plateaued baseline. - [2025-12-XX, contextualized] The deceleration pattern is intact: prior-year growth rates fell from 15% (2022→2023) to 7.9% (2023→2024) to -1% (2024→2025), a monotonically decelerating and now-negative trajectory that, if it continues at even a flat-to-slightly-negative rate into 2026, would land 2026 close to or below the 2025 figure rather than reversing upward — status-quo inertia favors another year at or just above/below 10,000, not a clear breakout. - [2026-10-11] No CDC, MMWR, or state health department source yet published any numeric 2026 year-to-date or provisional full-year TB count; the absence of any confirmatory mid-year or Q3 2026 CDC bulletin on TB (in contrast to the frequent measles updates) suggests no acceleration newsworthy enough to be flagged, consistent with a continuing plateau/decline rather than a resurgence. BOTTOM LINE: Beyond the epidemiological case for a continued plateau/mild decline (10,395→10,260, a second consecutive deceleration), the NO case is strengthened by a resolution-mechanics risk: CDC's own TB data pipeline reliably produces only a partial, under-counted cumulative figure by early January (as the already-identified week-47-2025 analog of 7,910 vs. eventual 10,260 shows), and the authoritative annual report is explicitly not released until "later in the fall" of the following year — well after the Jan 8, 2027 determination — so the visible Source-Agency number at resolution is structurally biased toward appearing below 10,000 regardless of the true 2026 total. NOT FOUND: No 2026 weekly or cumulative NNDSS TB case count could be retrieved (the Socrata API query for 2026 data errored and no stacks.cdc.gov weekly TB tables dated to 2026 were located), no official statement specifying which exact dataset/table Kalshi's "Source Agencies" hierarchy would pull from on January 8, 2027, and no CDC interim/mid-year 2026 TB bulletin or MMWR update.