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Will Rhode Island’s commercial quahog landings for 2026 be above 340,000 meat pounds?
11%
Agent
7%
Market Price
+3.8%
Edge
53%
Confidence
27,519
Volume
1.0c
Spread
262
Days to resolution
6
Markets in event
final rationale
Mean of 4 draws (0.11, 0.10, 0.10, 0.12). (0) Not resolved. RIDEM's Annual Fisheries Report: 2026 cannot exist until calendar-year 2026 ends; the latest listed report is the 2025 edition. (a) There are about 2.5 months of 2026 landings left, and the report is due before the June 30, 2027 close. (b) Status quo points to No. The most recent confirmed figure is 302,244 meat lb for 2024 (NOAA data cited in Feb 2026 RISA testimony). That follows about 397k in 2022 and roughly 345k in 2023, a steady decline. Providence River Area E daily harvest in 2025 also ran below 2021-23 levels. (c) No: the structural decline continues, transplant funding stays minimal, the fleet keeps shrinking, and 2026 lands near or below 300k lb. (d) Yes: DEM's spring-2026 rule raised access days in the dense Area 16E from 24 to 64. Combined with the 153k-lb May 2026 Greenwich/Apponaug transplant once harvest reopens after depuration, that could lift landings 12%+ above the 2024 level. This is within the fishery's normal year-to-year volatility. There is also some risk that RIDEM's own SAFIS-based figure differs from NOAA's. The Kalshi anchor is 7%, rising over the past month. The 16E expansion and the large transplant are real 2026-specific levers the market may slightly underweight, so I shade up modestly to about 11%.
price vs. prediction
market price
agent forecast at t+0
8 follow-ups
1. Planner Opus 5.5 · picks the research tools
Tools chosen:
kalshi_direct
resolution_source
kalshi_related
article_search
Planner reasoning
This is a niche Kalshi market that resolves on the quahog landings figure in RIDEM's annual fisheries report. The main anchors are the market's own price, the RIDEM reports, and sibling strike markets in the same series. A targeted search for historical quahog landings figures (2023-2025) gives the base rate needed to place the 340,000 lb threshold.
2. Research parallel tool calls + 4 web research loops (Sonnet 5) · read raw by the forecasters
at a glance
RESEARCH DIGEST (built in code: tool summaries and each report's bottom line; the forecasters read the full tool outputs and reports)
Tools
- kalshi_direct: ## This Market's Kalshi Data **Above 340,000 meat pounds** (KXRIQUAHOG-27JUN30-T340000) - Current price (probability): 7.00% (live; bid 7% / ask 8%) - 7-day price change: +2.00% - 30-day price change: +5.00% - Average daily volume: 2752 contracts - Price range: 2.00% - 13.00% - Data points: 10 days
- resolution_source: already_resolved=unclear; matches_criteria=True; last_updated=Publications page snapshot dated ~255 days old (early 2026); RISA testimony dated February 4, 2026 citing 2024 data as most recent available. RIDEM's publications page lists 'Annual Fisheries Report: 2025' as the latest report (published 2026), meaning the 'Annual Fisheries Report: 2026' containing calendar-year-2026 quahog landings has
- kalshi_related: 0 related markets / summaries. series KXRIQUAHOG: 0 markets (skipped 6 no-signal) | keyword 'quahog': no matches | keyword 'Rhode Island landings': no matches
- article_search: Fetched 17 unique articles across 2 queries (lookback=730d). 'RIDEM annual fisheries report quahog landings meat pounds 2025 2024': 10 articles | 'Rhode Island quahog harvest 2026 Narragansett Bay landings': 10 articles
Research loops, bottom lines
- current state: Every recent, credible figure — RIDEM's own 2024 Commission data, the June 2024 Commission Final Report, and a March 2026 ecoRI/Brown science-journalism piece citing that report — puts actual RI quahog landings well below 340,000 meat pounds (specifically "below 300,000 pounds per year" in recent years, and under 500,000 for 2020-2023). No source shows a rebound to levels needed to clear 340,000 pounds in 2026, which points toward the threshold being met only if there's a meaningful upturn not y
- base rate: The multi-year base rate strongly favors "No": RI quahog landings have declined steadily from ~764,000 lbs (2014) to ~397,000 (2022) to an estimated ~345,000 (2023, down 13%) to 302,244 lbs (2024, the most recent confirmed NOAA/RIDEM figure) — a persistent downtrend that has already pushed landings below the 340,000-lb threshold in the most recent confirmed year, with no significant funded intervention (e.g., transplant programs) underway to reverse it.
- yes case: The clearest path to YES is a 2026-specific supply boost: DEM's spring-2026 near-tripling of legal fishing days (24→64) in the unusually dense Area 16E, combined with active 2026 transplant events, could lift landings from the 2024 baseline of 302,244 pounds by the ~12-13% needed to clear 340,000 — a move the fishery has shown it can make in a single year (e.g., the 31% value rebound in 2021) even though no primary RIDEM data yet confirms this happened in 2026.
- no case: The only recent, primary-sourced full-year total (302,244 meat pounds in 2024, per NOAA/RIDEM data cited in Feb 2026 legislative testimony) sits below the 340,000-lb bar, the state's key supply-side lever (transplants) remains chronically underfunded and reliant on sporadic WWTF fines rather than appropriations, and the legislature's one attempt at a major funding fix died in committee — all pointing to continuity of decline rather than a 2026 rebound above threshold.
tools
| tool | status | time | items | summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi_direct | OK | 0.2s | 1 | ## This Market's Kalshi Data **Above 340,000 meat pounds** (KXRIQUAHOG-27JUN30-T340000) - Current price (probability): 7.00% (live; bid 7% / ask 8%) - 7-day price change: +2.00% - 30-day price change: +5.00% - Average daily volume: 2752 contracts - Price range: 2.00% - 13.00% - Data points: 10 days |
| resolution_source | OK | 17.0s | 1 | already_resolved=unclear; matches_criteria=True; last_updated=Publications page snapshot dated ~255 days old (early 2026); RISA testimony dated February 4, 2026 citing 2024 data as most recent available. RIDEM's publications page lists 'Annual Fisheries Report: 2025' as the latest report (published |
| kalshi_related | OK | 1.2s | 0 | 0 related markets / summaries. series KXRIQUAHOG: 0 markets (skipped 6 no-signal) | keyword 'quahog': no matches | keyword 'Rhode Island landings': no matches |
| article_search | OK | 21.5s | 17 | Fetched 17 unique articles across 2 queries (lookback=730d). 'RIDEM annual fisheries report quahog landings meat pounds 2025 2024': 10 articles | 'Rhode Island quahog harvest 2026 Narragansett Bay landings': 10 articles |
research loops
·
4/4 ok ·
17 searches ·
6 page reads
| dimension | status | time | searches | page reads | report |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current state | OK | 47s | 6 | 2 | 4052 chars |
| base rate | OK | 57s | 4 | 2 | 4589 chars |
| yes case | OK | 40s | 3 | 2 | 4263 chars |
| no case | SNIPPETS | 61s | 4 | 0 | 4921 chars · no page read; snippets only |
report: current state
- [2024-03-18] RIDEM's official comments to the Legislative Quahog Commission state that since the 1980s peak,
quahog landings have declined to levels between 400,000 and 1 million pounds of quahog meats per year from 2005 to the present
, based on a chart running through 2022. Source: dem.ri.gov quahog commission letter.
- [2024-06-XX] The Quahog Commission's Final Report (cited by ecoRI, June 2024 document) states that annual RI quahog landings have
plummeted to below 300,000 pounds per year, a 93% decrease from the industry's glory days
(https://rhodeislandcurrent.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/05-31-2024-Quahog-Commission-Final-Report-PDF-Signed-by-Co-Chairs.pdf).
- [2025-09-20] Rhode Island Current reported that
at its peak in 1959, nearly 5 million pounds of quahogs were harvested from Rhode Island waters; between 2020 and 2023, that number was less than 500,000 pounds
(rhodeislandcurrent.com).
- [2024-04-02] An earlier Rhode Island Current article similarly noted that
over the past three years, that number was less than 500,000 pounds
— referring to 2021–2023 (rhodeislandcurrent.com).
- [2026-03-18] An ecoRI News/Brown University science-journalism piece (updated 2026-06-18) reiterates the Commission finding that landings have
plummeted to below 300,000 pounds per year, a 93% decrease from the industry's glory days
, and adds that
"in the last 20 years, the decline has reached new lows and shows no signs of slowing"
(ecori.org).
- [2026-05-XX] The RI Seafood Marketing Collaborative's 2025 Annual Report celebrates "10th Annual Quahog Week" (May 2026) and states 2025 was its biggest participation year (75 venues), but gives no landings-weight figures (seafood.ri.gov PDF).
- [2026-05-17] Newport Buzz/What'sUpNewp coverage of the 10th Annual Quahog Week (May 17–23, 2026) cites DEM data that
last week alone, harvesters landed more than 25,700 pounds, according to DEM
— a live-weight, single-week figure, not a meat-weight annual total (whatsupnewp.com).
- [2026-05-XX] The same Quahog Week coverage notes
more than 13 million clams being harvested in 2025
, a count-based figure rather than meat pounds (seafood.ri.gov).
- [2024 commission chart] RIDEM's own harvest-history figure (RIDEM DMF 2023 data) shows annual meat-pound landings bottoming out in the 350,000–450,000 range around 2015–2022, after an all-time trough near ~2005–2010 close to 300,000–400,000 pounds (rhodeislandcurrent.com PDF, Figure 1, page 2).
- [2026 ongoing] RIDEM's "Annual Fisheries Report: 2025" is listed in DEM's publications index as a 2026-dated report, but a direct PDF link/figures for the 2025 or partial-2026 quahog meat-pound total could not be retrieved (dem.ri.gov/natural-resources-bureau/marine-fisheries/fisheries-science-research/publications).
- [2026-ongoing] A federal dredging project (Providence River Federal Navigation Project) is slated to begin construction in fall 2026/2027, which could require relocating roughly 8 million quahogs from a 63-acre high-density habitat area; any large-scale transplant/relocation could temporarily affect harvestable stock and reported landings in 2026 (ecori.org, 2026-03-18).
BOTTOM LINE: Every recent, credible figure — RIDEM's own 2024 Commission data, the June 2024 Commission Final Report, and a March 2026 ecoRI/Brown science-journalism piece citing that report — puts actual RI quahog landings well below 340,000 meat pounds (specifically "below 300,000 pounds per year" in recent years, and under 500,000 for 2020-2023). No source shows a rebound to levels needed to clear 340,000 pounds in 2026, which points toward the threshold being met only if there's a meaningful upturn not yet documented in any available data.
NOT FOUND: A specific year-by-year meat-pound total for 2023, 2024, or 2025 from the RIDEM "Annual Fisheries Report" PDFs themselves (the 2023/2024/2025 report PDFs were not directly retrievable); any partial-year 2026 landings total; and any official RIDEM projection or preliminary figure for full-year 2026 quahog landings.
report: base rate
- [2024-02-12]
Quahogs have been in decline for decades according to RIDEM, with a graph in a recent DEM annual report illustrating "dramatic drops over the last decade" through 2022.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2024/02/12/metro/quahogs-are-declining/
- [2024 report]
Since the 1980s peak, quahog landings have declined to levels between 400,000 and 1 million pounds of quahog meats per year from 2005 to the present.
https://www.rilegislature.gov/commissions/QJC/commdocs/04-02-2024---RIDEM%20Quahog%20Commission%20Proposed%20Findings%20and%20Recommendations.pdf
- [undated, ecoRI]
In 2022, Rhode Island quahoggers landed 397,442 pounds of quahog meat according to NOAA Fisheries data, less than half of the more than 900,000 pounds harvested in 2012.
https://ecori.org/working-in-narragansett-bays-shellfish-labs-disease-pollution-and-pfas/
- [2024-aug, AOL/ProJo]
Harvests have followed a trajectory similar to license numbers, down to 397,000 meat pounds in 2022 from 4.2 million in 1985.
https://www.aol.com/quahog-holds-dear-place-ri-090612587.html
- [2024, Yahoo/ProJo]
Annual landings fell again in 2023, the most recent year for official numbers, down by 13% from the year before
— implying roughly ~345,000 lbs for 2023 (13% below the 397,442-lb 2022 figure), just at or barely below the 340,000-lb threshold. https://www.yahoo.com/news/whats-quahog-guide-rhode-islands-090332138.html
- [2026-02-04, RISA report]
Rhode Island quahog landings declined 60% in the last decade from 764,269 pounds harvested in 2014 to 302,244 pounds in 2024, with annual landing values decreasing from $5.1 million to $3.5 million (NOAA Fisheries data).
This 2024 figure is well below the 340,000-lb threshold. https://rhodeislandcurrent.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/RISA_testimony_H8133-1.pdf
- [2025-09-20]
At its peak in 1959, nearly 5 million pounds of quahogs were harvested from Rhode Island waters; between 2020 and 2023, that number was less than 500,000 pounds.
https://rhodeislandcurrent.com/briefs/sen-whitehouse-wants-to-know-where-the-quahogs-have-gone/
- [2025-11-04 data, RIMFC meeting materials] Providence River (Area E) commercial harvest — a large but partial subset of the state's total quahog harvest — was reported in clam counts rather than meat pounds:
2025 Winter landings were 853,198 clams over 6 days, and 2025 Summer landings (as of 11/4/2025) were 4,703,316 clams over 15 of 23 days
, both notably lower in average daily harvest than 2021-2023. This suggests 2025 total landings were likely similar to or below the declining 2022-2024 trend, though it does not directly convert to statewide meat pounds.
- [2026-02-04, RISA]
In May 2024, a Special Legislative Commission on reduced quahog catch issued its final report after several months of hearings from scientists, fishermen, and regulators
, and as of early 2026
state-funded transplant programs — a key tool historically used to boost landings — remain severely underfunded, with only one paid transplant in 2025 and just $9,000 available for 2026
, indicating no major supply-side intervention is likely to reverse the decline before 2026 landings are tallied.
- [2026, RI Food Policy Council dashboard]
The number of fishermen contributing to the harvest of Rhode Island's top 15 species has decreased from 2019 to 2024, with quahogs having 442 harvesters
, consistent with a shrinking, aging commercial quahog fleet reported elsewhere in industry testimony.
- [market-adjacent commentary, 2026-09, unverified secondary source] A non-RIDEM blog post speculates that "2025 saw relatively stable or slightly increased landings" and frames 340,000 lbs as "a strong year," but provides no primary data or citation and explicitly states official 2025/2026 figures are "unconfirmed" — this should be treated as low-confidence commentary, not evidence.
BOTTOM LINE: The multi-year base rate strongly favors "No": RI quahog landings have declined steadily from ~764,000 lbs (2014) to ~397,000 (2022) to an estimated ~345,000 (2023, down 13%) to 302,244 lbs (2024, the most recent confirmed NOAA/RIDEM figure) — a persistent downtrend that has already pushed landings below the 340,000-lb threshold in the most recent confirmed year, with no significant funded intervention (e.g., transplant programs) underway to reverse it.
NOT FOUND: An official RIDEM "Annual Fisheries Report: 2025" quahog meat-pound total (the report exists per RIDEM's publications page but its specific landings figure was not accessible in search results); any official partial-year 2026 landings data from RIDEM.
report: yes case
YES means: RIDEM's "Annual Fisheries Report: 2026" (to be published in 2027) reports a quahog (bay/northern quahog) meat-pound landings total for calendar year 2026 that is strictly above 340,000 pounds.
- [2026-02-04] The RISA testimony to the legislature put the most recent confirmed annual total at 302,244 meat pounds for 2024, down from 764,269 pounds in 2014 — meaning 2026 landings would need to rise roughly 12–13% over the last confirmed year to clear 340,000, a swing well within the fishery's documented year-to-year volatility.
Rhode Island quahog landings have declined 60% in the last decade from 764,269 pounds harvested in 2014 to 302,244 pounds in 2024, and annual landing values decreased from $5.1 million to $3.5 million during the period.
(rhodeislandcurrent.com)
- [2022-05] RIDEM's own 2021 Annual Fisheries Report shows that overall RI fishery value jumped sharply in a single year after a down period, demonstrating that landings/value in this fishery can rebound quickly rather than decline monotonically:
Prior to 2020, the value of Rhode Island commercial fishing landings had been increasing since 2015. The 31% increase in value in 2021 suggests that the fishery has rebounded substantially
. (dem.ri.gov)
- [2026-05-13] DEM implemented a new rule in spring 2026 that more than doubled harvester access to one of the Bay's most productive clam beds:
Quahoggers like Ghigliotty were heartened by a new DEM rule increasing the time that they could access 16E from 24 days to 64 days.
Fishermen describe this area as dramatically more productive than other grounds —
"It's three to four times better than any of the areas that we can fish," said Michael McGiveney, President of the Rhode Island Shellfisherman's Association.
(nenc.news)
- [2026-05-13] Area 16E had only reopened to shellfishing five years earlier after a long pollution closure, so its stock is unusually dense: Ghigliotty noted
"There's more quahogs there... There's more fishing, there's more ground, there's more virgin territory."
Nearly tripling legal access days to this high-yield area is a concrete, DEM-confirmed mechanism that could push 2026 landings meaningfully above the 2024 baseline. (nenc.news)
- [2026-05-07] DEM's shellfish-transplant program, a direct supply-side lever, was active in 2026:
Two transplants were held on May 5th and May 7th, 2026.
Even modest transplants (comparable to the 2020 Providence River transplant of over 50,000 pounds cited in the 2024 Commission report) add immediately harvestable biomass that shows up in the same calendar year's landings. (dem.ri.gov)
- [2026-05] DEM's own historical transplant case studies show individual transplant events can move tens of thousands of pounds of quahogs into harvestable areas in a single season, which — combined with the expanded 16E access — gives 2026 two independent, documented levers (not present in 2024) for pushing landings upward. (rhodeislandcurrent.com, Commission findings PDF)
- [2026-ongoing, low-confidence] A non-primary industry/market commentary piece (dated roughly September 2026) claims
"Preliminary data from state agencies and industry reports suggest that 2025 saw relatively stable or slightly increased landings compared to previous years, fueling speculation about whether 2026 will break previous records."
This is unsourced, unconfirmed by any primary RIDEM/NOAA figure, and should be treated as weak corroborating color rather than evidence. (theculinarygene.com)
BOTTOM LINE: The clearest path to YES is a 2026-specific supply boost: DEM's spring-2026 near-tripling of legal fishing days (24→64) in the unusually dense Area 16E, combined with active 2026 transplant events, could lift landings from the 2024 baseline of 302,244 pounds by the ~12-13% needed to clear 340,000 — a move the fishery has shown it can make in a single year (e.g., the 31% value rebound in 2021) even though no primary RIDEM data yet confirms this happened in 2026.
NOT FOUND: Any RIDEM or NOAA FOSS confirmed meat-pound total for 2025 or any partial-year 2026 figure; quantified pounds added by the May 2026 transplants; and confirmation of how many of the expanded 64 access days in Area 16E were actually usable given the May 2026 sewage-spill closure.
report: no case
YES means: RIDEM's "Annual Fisheries Report: 2026" (or NOAA/RIDEM data it draws on) shows RI's bay quahog harvest exceeding 340,000 meat pounds for calendar year 2026.
- [2026-02-04] The Rhode Island Shellfisherman's Association's testimony on H 8133 states landings
declined 60% in the last decade from 764,269 pounds harvested in 2014 to 302,244 pounds in 2024, and annual landing values decreased from $5.1 million to $3.5 million during the period (NOAA Fisheries data)
— the most recent confirmed full-year figure sits roughly 11% under the 340,000-lb threshold, with no official 2025 figure yet superseding it (https://rhodeislandcurrent.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/RISA_testimony_H8133-1.pdf).
- [2026-02-04] The same testimony confirms that nearly two years after the Commission's recommendations,
"no substantive action has occurred to advance and implement the Commission's recommendations"
on transplants, monitoring, and a permanent advisory commission — direct evidence of status-quo inertia on the supply side (same source).
- [2024-04-02, RIDEM to legislature] RIDEM's own commission filing notes that even compared to the historical high-funding era,
transplant funding occasionally exceeded $250,000 annually (in 2023 dollars) prior to 1980; funding for more recent transplants has been sporadic and relatively small (on the order of $25,000 per year)
, and that recent annual transplant volume
"(approximately 44,000 pounds annually) is a minor fraction of the volume transplanted historically"
(rilegislature.gov PDF).
- [2026-05] A rare bright spot — the CFR Foundation reports that the May 2026 Greenwich/Apponaug Cove transplant moved
"over 153,000 pounds of quahogs transplanted"
— but transplanted quahogs must depurate before they can legally be harvested and sold, so this one-time relay does not directly add 153,000 lbs to 2026 landings; by RIDEM's own historical data, even multi-decade averages of ~2.5 million lbs/year transplanted during 1954-1974 only sustained landings around ~1 million lbs/year, implying a single ~150,000-lb relay is a small lever against a structural decline (cfrfoundation.org).
- [2025-09-20] Rhode Island Current reports that the 13-member Joint Quahog Commission, after nearly a year of hearings,
"never firmly settled on a definitive cause"
for the decline, meaning no validated remediation exists that could plausibly reverse the trend by year-end 2026 (rhodeislandcurrent.com).
- [2025-09-20] The largest proposed near-term funding fix —
a House resolution that would have allocated $2.3 million for the DEM to transplant more quahogs into Narragansett Bay and establish a shellfish hatchery program — "died in committee"
— confirming the legislature has not funded a scale-up that could move landings materially (same source).
- [2026-02] What'sUpNewp reports a new Roger Williams University research initiative (CEED, PRESS/NOAA-funded) is
aimed at understanding "how disease and reproductive health impact quahog populations"
rather than an immediate stock-boosting intervention — a multi-year research effort, not a 2026 production fix (whatsupnewp.com).
- [2026, dem.ri.gov] DEM's shellfish-transplants page confirms current program funding comes only from
"fines levied on municipal wastewater treatment facilities (WWTFs) whose permit violations lead to shellfish harvest closures"
rather than dedicated appropriations, and as of the page's latest update there are
"no scheduled transplants at this time"
beyond the two already completed in May 2026 (dem.ri.gov/natural-resources-bureau/marine-fisheries/shellfish-and-aquaculture-resources/shellfish-transplants).
- [~2026 snapshot] RIDEM's own publications index lists an
"Annual Fisheries Report: 2025"
under its 2026 publications, but no public PDF with the actual 2025 quahog meat-pound total could be retrieved, meaning the most recent officially confirmed data point remains the 2024 figure of 302,244 lbs — already below the 340,000-lb bar — with no documented rebound since (dem.ri.gov/natural-resources-bureau/marine-fisheries/fisheries-science-research/publications).
BOTTOM LINE: The only recent, primary-sourced full-year total (302,244 meat pounds in 2024, per NOAA/RIDEM data cited in Feb 2026 legislative testimony) sits below the 340,000-lb bar, the state's key supply-side lever (transplants) remains chronically underfunded and reliant on sporadic WWTF fines rather than appropriations, and the legislature's one attempt at a major funding fix died in committee — all pointing to continuity of decline rather than a 2026 rebound above threshold.
NOT FOUND: A publicly retrievable RIDEM "Annual Fisheries Report: 2025" or "2026" PDF with an explicit quahog meat-pound total; any official partial-year 2026 landings tally; confirmation of whether the May 2026 Greenwich/Apponaug transplant volume has since been harvested and counted in 2026 landings.
3. Forecasters 4 draws · Opus 5.5 + GPT · plain mean
claude-opus-5-5 · high effort
55% conf
| Yes | 11% |
| No | 89% |
(0) Not resolved. RIDEM's Annual Fisheries Report: 2026 cannot exist until calendar-year 2026 ends; the latest listed report is the 2025 edition. (a) There are about 2.5 months of 2026 landings left, and the report is due before the June 30, 2027 close. (b) Status quo points to No. The most recent confirmed figure is 302,244 meat lb for 2024 (NOAA data cited in Feb 2026 RISA testimony). That follows about 397k in 2022 and roughly 345k in 2023, a steady decline. Providence River Area E daily harvest in 2025 also ran below 2021-23 levels. (c) No: the structural decline continues, transplant funding stays minimal, the fleet keeps shrinking, and 2026 lands near or below 300k lb. (d) Yes: DEM's spring-2026 rule raised access days in the dense Area 16E from 24 to 64. Combined with the 153k-lb May 2026 Greenwich/Apponaug transplant once harvest reopens after depuration, that could lift landings 12%+ above the 2024 level. This is within the fishery's normal year-to-year volatility. There is also some risk that RIDEM's own SAFIS-based figure differs from NOAA's. The Kalshi anchor is 7%, rising over the past month. The 16E expansion and the large transplant are real 2026-specific levers the market may slightly underweight, so I shade up modestly to about 11%.
claude-opus-5-5 · high effort
55% conf
| Yes | 10% |
| No | 90% |
(0) The condition is not met yet. The resolving document, RIDEM's 'Annual Fisheries Report: 2026', cannot exist until calendar 2026 ends. RIDEM's publications page tops out at the 2025 report. (a) The year's landings finish accruing on Dec 31, 2026, and the report is expected before the June 30, 2027 close. (b) Status quo points to No. Confirmed meat-pound landings ran ~397k (2022), ~345k (2023, implied by a reported 13% drop), then 302,244 (2024, NOAA data cited in February 2026 RISA testimony). That is a steady ~10%/yr decline, and the most recent year already sits ~11% under the bar. Transplant funding remains tiny, and the legislature's $2.3M fix died in committee. (c) No scenario: the downtrend continues, putting 2026 around 270–310k meat lbs, consistent with the ~25.7k live-lb May week. (d) Yes scenario: two 2026-specific levers lift landings 12%+ above 2024. DEM nearly tripled access days (24→64) to the dense, recently reopened Area 16E, and the May 2026 transplant moved ~153k live lbs. Some measurement difference between RIDEM's figure and the NOAA-cited figures could also help. Kalshi trades at 7% (range 2–13%). Given normal year-to-year volatility of ±10–15% and the 16E access expansion the market may be underweighting, I nudge slightly above the market to 10%.
claude-opus-5-5 · high effort
52% conf
| Yes | 10% |
| No | 90% |
(0) The condition is not yet met. RIDEM's 'Annual Fisheries Report: 2026' covering calendar-year 2026 cannot exist yet; the latest listed report is the 2025 edition. (a) The 2026 landing season runs through December 31, about 2.7 months from now. The report is likely published in 2027, before the June 30, 2027 close. (b) Status quo points to No. The most recent confirmed figure is 302,244 meat lbs for 2024, cited from NOAA in February 2026 legislative testimony. 2023 was roughly 345k (a 13% drop from 2022's 397k), so the decade-long downtrend now sits below the 340k bar. Clearing it in 2026 needs a rise of about 12.5%. (c) No: the decline continues or levels off near 300k. Contributing factors are chronically underfunded transplants (the $2.3M bill died), lower average daily Providence River harvests in 2025, a shrinking fleet, high fuel costs, and a May 2026 sewage-spill closure. (d) Yes: two 2026-specific levers could lift landings above 340k. DEM's spring 2026 rule raised access days in the dense, recently reopened Area 16E from 24 to 64, and fishermen call that ground '3-4x better.' The May 2026 Greenwich/Apponaug transplant moved about 153k lbs, which could be harvested after depuration. There is also some risk that RIDEM's dealer-based figure differs from the NOAA number. The Kalshi market sits at 7% and has drifted up 5 points over 30 days. The 16E access expansion and the large transplant are real, unquantified upside, so I lean slightly above the market at 10%.
claude-opus-5-5 · high effort
50% conf
| Yes | 12% |
| No | 88% |
(0) Not resolved. RIDEM's Annual Fisheries Report: 2026 cannot exist until calendar 2026 ends; it will likely be published in 2027, before the June 30, 2027 close. (a) About 2.5 months of 2026 harvesting remain, then a wait for publication. (b) Status quo points to No. The most recent confirmed figure is 302,244 meat lbs for 2024 (NOAA/RIDEM, cited in RISA's Feb 2026 testimony). That follows roughly 397k in 2022 and about 345k in 2023, a steady downtrend that has already dropped below the 340k bar. Area E harvest data for 2025 also showed lower daily yields. (c) No scenario: the decline continues, high fuel costs keep effort down, transplant funding stays minimal, and 2026 lands near or below 300k. (d) Yes scenario: DEM's spring-2026 rule raising access to the dense Area 16E from 24 to 64 days, plus the roughly 153k-lb May 2026 transplant reopening within the year, lifts landings by the ~12-13% needed. The fishery's year-to-year volatility makes that conceivable, though no partial-2026 data confirms it. The market sits at 7% (bid 7 / ask 8). The 16E expansion is a concrete 2026-specific upside lever the market may be underweighting, and the 2025 figure is unknown. Against that, a sewage closure in May 2026 and the structural decline argue for caution, so I edge only slightly above the market.
4. Final plain mean of 4 draws
11%
(53% confidence)
Yes: 11%
No: 89%
Mean of 4 draws (0.11, 0.10, 0.10, 0.12). (0) Not resolved. RIDEM's Annual Fisheries Report: 2026 cannot exist until calendar-year 2026 ends; the latest listed report is the 2025 edition. (a) There are about 2.5 months of 2026 landings left, and the report is due before the June 30, 2027 close. (b) Status quo points to No. The most recent confirmed figure is 302,244 meat lb for 2024 (NOAA data cited in Feb 2026 RISA testimony). That follows about 397k in 2022 and roughly 345k in 2023, a steady decline. Providence River Area E daily harvest in 2025 also ran below 2021-23 levels. (c) No: the structural decline continues, transplant funding stays minimal, the fleet keeps shrinking, and 2026 lands near or below 300k lb. (d) Yes: DEM's spring-2026 rule raised access days in the dense Area 16E from 24 to 64. Combined with the 153k-lb May 2026 Greenwich/Apponaug transplant once harvest reopens after depuration, that could lift landings 12%+ above the 2024 level. This is within the fishery's normal year-to-year volatility. There is also some risk that RIDEM's own SAFIS-based figure differs from NOAA's. The Kalshi anchor is 7%, rising over the past month. The 16E expansion and the large transplant are real 2026-specific levers the market may slightly underweight, so I shade up modestly to about 11%.
Pipeline Timing
Total pipeline time: 130.2s
Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.