Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

- [2026-09-16] The FOMC raised the federal funds target range by 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00% on a unanimous 12-0 vote, its first hike since 2023; this hike does **not** count toward the market per the rules. The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4%. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260916.htm - [2026-09-16] The September Summary of Economic Projections (dot plot) showed sixteen of eighteen participants expecting one additional rate hike this year, while four participants projected two additional hikes , implying a median end-2026 rate of 4.1%. https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/portfolio-insights/fixed-income/fixed-income-perspectives/fomc-statement-september-2026/ - [2026-10-07] FOMC minutes from the September meeting were released; the minutes said "most participants" saw another increase as likely appropriate "by year end" . https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260916.htm - [2026-10-02] September nonfarm payrolls came in very weak: nonfarm payrolls rose by just 29,000 in September, well below the 84,000 forecast, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.2% , with July and August revised down a combined 60,000 jobs. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/jobs-report-september-2026.html - [2026-10-05/07] The weak jobs data sharply cut odds of an October hike: "the probability of a Fed rate hike at the Oct FOMC meeting fell to below 20% (as of 5 Oct) following the payrolls report (vs 64% on 25 Sep) while markets still fully priced in a rate hike by end-2026." https://fxstreet.com/news/us-dollar-softer-jobs-data-shapes-fed-path-uob-202610061419 - [2026-10-09] As of the most recent survey, market odds of an October hike were about 16%-18%, while market odds of a hike by December were about 75%-85% , and only 1 of 14 surveyed brokerages expected an October hike. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/fed-rate-decision-october-2026 - [2026-10-07] Alternative tracker similarly showed October Fed rate hike odds fell to about 17%; a December increase is still priced at nearly 90% . https://pomegra.io/news/september-payrolls-rise-29000-cutting-fed-rate-hike-odds - [2026-09-17] The current effective federal funds rate sits at 3.88%, consistent with the 3.75%-4.00% target range set after the September hike (H.15 release updated through 2026-10-08). https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/ - [2026-10-27/28] Next scheduled FOMC meeting is October 27-28, 2026 (decision 2:00 PM ET Oct 28); it does not include updated projections. The October meeting does not carry updated projections; the December one does. https://cambridgecurrencies.com/next-federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision/ - [2026-12-08/09] Final 2026 FOMC meeting is scheduled for December 8-9, 2026, with decision announced December 9 and updated SEP/dot plot — this is the meeting that would determine the market outcome if October is a hold. https://fedratecalc.com/fomc-meeting-schedule/ - [2026-10-14] Upcoming September CPI release (scheduled for October 14, 2026) is flagged by analysts as the key swing data point ahead of the October meeting and for shaping December hike odds; Bill Adams of Fifth Third Bancorp said the price data due before the October 27-28 meeting has "more power to sway the next rate decision than this jobs report." https://247wallst.com/investing/2026/10/03/the-fed-may-now-skip-october-rate-hike-but-december-is-still-very-much-in-play/ - [2026-10-08] FOMC blackout period for policy speech runs from October 17 to October 29, 2026, meaning Fed officials stop speaking about policy from Saturday 17 October until Thursday 29 October, so any last signals from the Fed must come before 17 October . https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/fed-rate-decision-october-2026 BOTTOM LINE: A qualifying hike has not yet occurred since September 17; the base case per current market pricing and Fed minutes is a hold at the October 28 meeting followed by a roughly 75-90% market-implied chance of a 25bp hike at the December 8-9 meeting, contingent on upcoming CPI (Oct 14) and labor data not further weakening the case. NOT FOUND: No confirmed emergency/intermeeting rate hike has been announced or reported as of 2026-10-10; no official Fed statement yet previews the December decision (SEP for December not yet published).

- [2026-09-16] The FOMC raised the federal funds target range by 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% in a 12-0 vote — the first hike since 2023, ending a three-year pause; this hike itself does NOT count toward the current market (which only counts hikes from Sept 17 onward). The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4%, the first time the benchmark rate has been increased since 2023. - [2026-09-16] The accompanying dot plot showed strong hawkish intent for another hike this year: the Fed's "dot plot" of economic projections showed 16 of 18 members projecting at least one more rate hike this year, with another hike seen this year, but 2027 in question. The September SEP median for end-2026 rose to 4.1%, implying one further 25bp move. The September projections lifted the median rate for end-2026 to 4.1%, implying one more 25 basis point hike this year; in June, the median for end-2026 was 3.8%. - [2026-07-29] At the prior (July) meeting the Fed held rates 9-3, with three dissenters wanting to hike immediately, and minutes show hawkish undercurrents: the Committee decided to maintain the target range at 3.5%-3.75% by a 9–3 vote, with Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan voting against and preferring a hike. Markets at that time were fully pricing in a 25 basis point hike by the September meeting and another one by the end of the first quarter of next year — i.e., the "second hike" was then expected to land in Q1 2027, later than the current question's December 2026 deadline. - [2026-10-07] Minutes from the September meeting (released Oct 7) show continued hawkish lean: most participants judged that another increase "would likely be appropriate by year end," while stressing decisions would depend on incoming data; the September projections showed one more hike in 2026. - [2026-10-09] As of this week, market-implied odds for the next (October 28) meeting have fallen sharply while December odds remain elevated: On 9 October, markets priced only about a 16%-18% chance of a second straight hike in October, while market odds of a hike by December stood about 75%-85% ; similarly, the probability of a 25 bps rate hike in October is 17.7%, while the probability of a hike of up to 50 bps in December is 83.7% per CME FedWatch. - [2026-10-09] A separate report corroborates this split: CME FedWatch data put the probability of a hike at the October meeting near 19% and at roughly 71% for December, following a 25-basis-point increase in September. - [2026-10-09] Sell-side forecasters are split but mostly lean toward a December hike: brokerages expecting an October hike numbered just 1 of 14 surveyed (BofA) , implying most expect any second hike to come later (December) rather than October — consistent with this market's resolution window encompassing both meetings. - [2026-08-31] Ahead of September, Barclays correctly anticipated the pattern now playing out: Barclays anticipated two more rate hikes this year, in September and December, totaling 50 basis points. Goldman Sachs (per Waller's hawkish remarks) has also flagged two more hikes as a live scenario, reinforcing a base case that a second 2026 hike is plausible but not yet consensus-certain. - [Historical reference class] Fed "resumption" hikes after a hiking pause are not common, but once a tightening bias starts, consecutive-meeting hikes have occurred: in 2022-2023 the Fed hiked at 10 consecutive meetings; the Fed raised rates four times in 2023, starting with consecutive 25 basis point increases in February, March and May 2023, then held in June and pushed higher again in July 2023 . This shows hiking cycles, once begun, often include multiple hikes but not always at every single subsequent meeting — holds between hikes are common (as seen June 2023). - [Historical reference class] Broader base rates: of ten completed Fed tightening cycles since 1971, cycle lengths and cadence vary widely; a rate hike cycle was defined as any time the Fed raised rates at two or more consecutive meetings, with recent cycles including Mar 2022-Sep 2022 (6 months), Dec 2015-Dec 2018 (36 months), and Jun 2004-Jun 2006 (24 months) . This indicates once a second hike happens (defining a "cycle"), Fed historically does not stop after just one, suggesting a Sept-hike-then-pause is the less common historical pattern once hawkish dots are in place. - [2026-10-09] Inflation remains well above target, a key driver for further hikes: Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has highlighted "concerning" inflation figures, with the PCE index at 3.7% and 4.1% over 12 and 6 months respectively, well above the 2% target. Persistently high inflation is the macro backdrop supporting continued tightening bias into the December meeting. BOTTOM LINE: The reference class (Fed tightening episodes, 2022-23 cycle, and the Fed's own September 2026 dot plot/minutes showing 16 of 18/19 officials expecting one more 2026 hike) strongly favors eventual resolution toward "Yes" by December, with market-implied odds (CME FedWatch ~75-85% for a December hike vs. ~16-18% for October) suggesting the hike is more likely delayed to December than to occur in October, but is still seen by most trackers as more likely than not to occur somewhere in the window before December 9. NOT FOUND: A comprehensive historical base-rate statistic specifically for "Fed hikes twice within a ~3-month window after resuming hikes from a multi-year pause" (no close analogue exists since 2004 and 2022 cycles started from zero/near-zero, not from a single-hike restart); also no systematic track record data on CME FedWatch's or betting markets' historical calibration accuracy for this specific type of event.

YES means: the Fed raises the upper bound of the federal funds target range at least once between September 17, 2026 and the conclusion of the December 8–9, 2026 FOMC meeting (i.e., a hike at either the October 27–28 or December 8–9 meeting, or an intermeeting/emergency move). - [2026-10-07] The September FOMC minutes (published Oct 7) showed officials explicitly previewing a second move: "most participants judged that 'one more increase by year-end' would be appropriate — without urgency for October." This is a direct, primary-source statement of intent to hike again before year-end, which can only be satisfied by October or December given the question's window. - [2026-10-08] Fed Governor Waller, speaking in Istanbul, reinforced the hiking bias in prepared remarks released on the Fed's own website: "If the economic data continue to come in as expected, I anticipate additional hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to our 2% goal... there is some flexibility about when those hikes will occur. The hikes do not need to come at consecutive meetings, but they should be in place in an acceptable period of time." This explicitly frames December as fully live even if October is skipped. - [2026-10-08] The same day, St. Louis Fed President Musalem separately "also referenced the need for further tightening," per reporting, indicating the hawkish lean is not limited to Waller alone. - [2026-10-08] Waller's own speech text (Fed website) states his policy shift reflects concern that "the recent acceleration in inflation—after what soon will be five and a half years of it above the FOMC's target—will lead consumers, investors, and price-setting businesses to revise up their expectations for future inflation." This is a structural, not transitory, hawkish rationale that argues for following through on the dot plot. - [2026-10-10] A same-day market preview ahead of the Oct 14 CPI release frames December as the "live meeting": the September minutes "showed most participants judged that 'one more increase by year-end' would be appropriate — without urgency for October," and "CME FedWatch has December near 70% and a hold on October 28 near 80%." Even the most bearish-for-YES framing still puts December hike odds far above 50%. - [2026-10-10] Consensus forecasts for the Sept CPI (due Oct 14) point to a further acceleration in headline inflation: "headline inflation seen at 3.7% y/y and core at 0.2% m/m... December hike odds sit near 70%." A hot core print would reinforce rather than undercut the hike case. - [2026-09-25ish] J.P. Morgan's institutional research house has moved to forecasting a second hike outright: "J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasts another quarter-point raise in December, but does not expect a longer-term hiking cycle." This is a sell-side house explicitly calling for the YES outcome, not just assigning it elevated odds. - [2026-09-29] MUFG Research, having flipped from "hold" to "hike" ahead of September on hawkish signals, assigns: "a 55-60% probability of the Fed hiking in December and then holding rates steady in the target range of 4-4.25%." A sell-side desk putting more-likely-than-not odds on the exact YES mechanism. - [2026-08-28] Capital Economics flagged room for the hike to come even earlier than December if data stays firm: Warsh's speech "delivered a far clearer – and hawkish – message than his last press conference appearance," leaving "the door open to a hike earlier than our current forecast of December, if the forthcoming price data are firm." This shows the risk is skewed toward "hike happens somewhere in the window," not toward no hike at all. - [2026-09-16] The Fed's own September Summary of Economic Projections, the most authoritative forward-looking signal available, showed an overwhelming majority of policymakers penciling in one more 2026 hike (already cited by colleagues), and Waller's Oct 8 remarks (above) confirm that projection still holds as of the most recent public Fed communication — the dot plot has not been walked back. - [2026-10-02/07] Even after the weak September payrolls report cut October-hike odds sharply, trackers still showed December-hike pricing holding near 70-90% (colleagues' reports), indicating the labor-market wobble has reallocated timing within the window rather than eliminating the hike itself — consistent with Waller's explicit point that hikes "do not need to come at consecutive meetings" but should still arrive "in an acceptable period of time." BOTTOM LINE: The single most likely YES path is a hold at the October 28 meeting followed by a 25bp hike at the December 9 decision, a path that the Fed's own September dot plot, the October 7 minutes, and back-to-back hawkish October 8 remarks from Waller (and Musalem) all explicitly support, with market-implied December-hike pricing in independent trackers sitting roughly 70-90% as of Oct 9-10 and at least two sell-side banks (J.P. Morgan, MUFG) forecasting a December hike outright. NOT FOUND: No Fed official has yet pre-committed to a specific December outcome (data-dependent language throughout); the October 14 CPI print and October 27-28 meeting outcome, which will be the most decisive near-term confirming/disconfirming signals, had not yet occurred as of this report.

YES means: the Fed raises the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at least once between September 17, 2026 and the conclusion of the December 8-9, 2026 FOMC meeting (i.e., at the October 27-28 or December 8-9 meeting, or via an intermeeting emergency move). The NO case argues this does not happen in that window. - [2026-10-08] Governor Waller, a leading hawkish voice, explicitly said hikes "do not need to come at consecutive meetings," only that they "should be in place in an acceptable period of time," language markets read as creating room for a pause that could, in principle, extend past December. https://www.axios.com/2026/10/08/interest-rate-hikes-fed-waller - [2026-10-08] Waller's own framing treated a cumulative 0.75-point adjustment (three hikes) as the probable total cycle size, with "another early in 2027" — meaning even the hawkish camp's base case allows the second hike to land outside this question's Sept 17–Dec 9 window if the Fed takes "some flexibility about when those hikes will occur." https://www.axios.com/2026/10/08/interest-rate-hikes-fed-waller - [2026-10-01/02] NY Fed President Williams said there was "no need for urgency" on policy and Vice Chair Jefferson said future adjustments depend on "carefully examining trends in the data," comments that single-handedly cut October hike odds from ~70% to ~24-25% within two days — demonstrating how fast a data-dependent Fed can defer action. https://www.kitco.com/news/off-the-wire/2026-10-01/fed-officials-wash-away-market-bets-october-rate-increase - [2026-10-07] Even the hawkish-leaning September minutes hedge with the phrase that participants "approached each meeting with an open mind," a standard Fed formulation precisely designed to preserve optionality to hold if data disappoint. https://www.axios.com/2026/10/08/interest-rate-hikes-fed-waller - [2026-10-02] September payrolls rose just 29,000 with unemployment up to 4.2%, and Vanguard's Adam Schickling said the report "strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to remain patient," illustrating the labor-market deterioration channel that could cause the Fed to skip December too if October/November data extend the trend. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/02/fed-rate-hike-odds-decline-after-september-jobs-report.html - [2026-10-09] Sibling-market pricing shows meaningful hold probability survives even for December alone: Kalshi's December-meeting contract puts "Fed maintains rate" at 29%, and a separate FedWatch-based tracker (rateprobability.com) shows only a 14.0% hike probability baked into its implied-rate-path model for the Dec 9 meeting — a notably more cautious read than headline CME FedWatch figures. https://kalshi.com/markets/kxfeddecision/fed-meeting/kxfeddecision-26dec , https://rateprobability.com/fed - [2026-10-07] The FOMC's own voting roster for 2026 includes doves/centrists (Williams as Vice Chair, Jefferson, Cook, Barr) alongside hawks (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan), so a December hike requires rebuilding the unanimous-style coalition seen in September; any renewed data softness could tip swing votes toward "hold," unlike the 12-0 September vote. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/fed-rate-decision-october-2026 - [2026-10-08] The FOMC blackout period runs October 17-29, meaning no further verbal course-correction or dovish/hawkish signaling is possible between October 17 and the October 28 decision, freezing the current patient-leaning consensus in place through that meeting. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/fed-rate-decision-october-2026 - [2026-10-09] Status-quo inertia: the Fed held for nine consecutive meetings (Dec 2025-Jul 2026) before the single September hike, per the meeting-by-meeting history, underscoring that "hold" has been this FOMC's dominant, default behavior in 2026, and a reversion to holding is not a low-base-rate outcome for this committee. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/fed-rate-decision-october-2026 - [2026-10-04] Goldman Sachs economists and Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha both concluded after the Jefferson/Williams speeches that an October hike is "unlikely," and JPMorgan's Michael Feroli framed the speeches as a deliberate expectations-management exercise — i.e., sell-side consensus itself increasingly frames the "hike" case as needing December data to go exactly right, not as a foregone conclusion. https://bworldonline.com/bloomberg/2026/10/04/784184/top-fed-deputies-step-in-to-give-markets-a-clear-message/ BOTTOM LINE: The NO case rests on an explicit, coordinated dovish pivot from Fed leadership (Williams, Jefferson, and even hawk Waller conceding hikes "do not need to come at consecutive meetings") combined with weakening labor data and a long 2026 track record of holds, all of which give the Fed a documented, articulated rationale and historical habit to extend caution past the December 9 deadline if upcoming CPI/jobs data wobble. NOT FOUND: No confirmed instance in 2026 of the Fed explicitly previewing a December hold; no post-blackout (after Oct 29) Fed commentary yet exists to confirm whether December intentions hardened or softened further.