Who will earn the Presidential Medal of Freedom in 2026? — Dana White

- [2026-09-11] The authoritative CRS report "Presidential Medal of Freedom" (updated Sept 11, 2026) lists all 675 medals awarded 1963–2026 by name; Trump's 2017-2021, 2025-present list includes Miriam Adelson, Bob Cousy, Welles Crowther, Dan Gable, Orrin Hatch, Lou Holtz, Jim Jordan, Jack Keane, Charlie Kirk, Arthur Laffer, and Rush Limbaugh — Dana White does not appear anywhere on this comprehensive, up-to-date list. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R47639 - [2026-09-11] The same report's summary states "Between 1963 and 2026, the Presidential Medal of Freedom was awarded 675 times to 672 individuals and one group" , confirming no additional unlisted recipient slot for White as of mid-September 2026. https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/R47639.html - [2026-10-07] Most recent confirmed medal news: Trump surprised Roger Clemens with the award at a San Antonio RNC rally; Trump told the crowd Clemens "is being given the single highest award along with the Medal of Honor" — Dana White was not mentioned in connection with this announcement. https://www.foxnews.com/outkick-sports/trump-says-hell-give-roger-clemens-presidential-medal-freedom-this-supersedes-anything-ive-done - [2026-08-04] An Irish Star report on Kalshi pricing noted White is considered one of Trump's top potential choices for the honor this year, with the highest probability of anyone listed on Kalshi, ahead of Sylvester Stallone, Reid Wiseman, and Elon Musk — this remains speculative, not an actual White House announcement. https://www.irishstar.com/sport/other-sports/dana-white-trump-presidential-medal-37514426 - [2026-06-14] Dana White's relationship with Trump reached a new high point when UFC Freedom 250 was staged on the South Lawn of the White House on June 14, 2026, marking the only UFC event ever held at the presidential residence, 20 days before the July 4 Semiquincentennial ; White sat ringside with Trump. No medal was conferred at this event. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UFC_Freedom_250 - [2026-07-20] White publicly described the June White House event as "the greatest moment of his life" while discussing memorabilia from it, with no mention of a medal. https://bloodyelbow.com/2026/07/20/dana-white-puts-bounty-on-historic-donald-trump-1-of-1-collectors-item-from-ufc-freedom-250-event/ - [2026-05-26] A Time profile detailed White's deep personal and political ties to Trump, noting White played a key role in Trump's 2024 campaign, introducing him at the RNC and helping him reach young male voters , underscoring why speculation about an eventual medal persists, but it reported no award decision. https://time.com/article/2026/05/26/dana-white-ufc-white-house-fight-interview/ - [2026-08-11 to 2026-10-13] White has been occupied with ordinary UFC business, including hosting Season 10 of Dana White's Contender Series on Paramount+ (Aug 11–Oct 13, 2026), with no reported involvement in any medal ceremony during this window. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dana_White's_Contender_Series_season_10 - [2026-01-04 precedent] For context on process: Biden's prior round of 19 medals was announced via official White House statement naming all recipients in advance of a formal East Room ceremony — the pattern for how such honors are confirmed (official WH release + ceremony), which has not occurred for White. https://bidenwhitehouse.archives.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2025/01/04/president-biden-announces-recipients-of-the-presidential-medal-of-freedom-3 BOTTOM LINE: As of October 10, 2026, no official White House announcement, CRS record, or news report confirms Dana White has received or been named to receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom; the most recent (Oct 7, 2026) surprise award went to Roger Clemens, while White remains only a speculative candidate per media/market chatter, with roughly 2.5 months left before the Jan 1, 2027 deadline. NOT FOUND: No official White House press release, executive statement, or ceremony announcement naming Dana White as a Presidential Medal of Freedom recipient or awardee-designate; no scheduled ceremony date involving White.

- [2026-09-11] CRS's comprehensive tracker shows the Presidential Medal of Freedom was awarded 675 times between 1963 and 2026 , with Donald J. Trump having awarded 26 medals total across his first and current terms (as of Sept. 2026). Of those 26, only two have come during his second term to date: Charlie Kirk (2025) and Welles Crowther (2026), per the CRS Table 2 list — implying Trump's pace of *confirmed, formally presented* medals in this term is roughly one per ~10 months, not a high-frequency event for any single unannounced individual. - [2026-10-07] Trump has continued the practice of surprise, ad hoc single-recipient announcements rather than large annual batches: he surprised Roger Clemens with the Presidential Medal of Freedom at a San Antonio RNC fundraiser on Oct. 7, 2026, days before this analysis — showing the award remains an active, frequently-used tool this term, but each recipient is chosen idiosyncratically with no public shortlist process. (https://www.foxnews.com/outkick-sports/trump-says-hell-give-roger-clemens-presidential-medal-freedom-this-supersedes-anything-ive-done) - [2026-09-11] CRS notes there is no formal procedure for nominating and selecting recipients; the President has wide latitude to award the medal to any person recommended or selected on his own initiative, and selections often reflect the President's political and personal interests — meaning there is no polling, betting pool, or nomination tracker that functions as a leading indicator outside of Trump's own public statements. (https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47639) - [2025-09-21] In an on-the-record exchange aboard Air Force One, a reporter asked Trump about honoring Charlie Kirk, and in the same conversation Trump separately praised "the great Dana White" without any mention of a medal for him — i.e., no documented instance yet of Trump himself naming White as a future recipient. (https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/remarks-exchange-with-reporters-aboard-air-force-one-en-route-joint-base-andrews-5) - [2026-08-06] (approx., "66 days ago") The only identified sourcing tying Dana White to this honor is market-speculation coverage itself: an outlet reported that UFC CEO and president Dana White is considered to be among the leading candidates to be awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom by Donald Trump this year , based on prediction-market pricing, not any White House statement. (https://www.irishstar.com/sport/other-sports/dana-white-trump-presidential-medal-37514426) - [2026-08-06] The same article cites a 24 percent chance for White, with Sylvester Stallone (21 percent), Reid Wiseman (20 percent), and Elon Musk (12 percent) as other named Kalshi contenders — confirming competing-candidate markets exist but that these are themselves derivative of the question being forecast, not independent evidence. - [2026-05-27] Reference class of actual Trump second-term awards shows a strong preference for (a) slain/posthumous political allies (Charlie Kirk) and (b) symbolic patriotic/historical figures tied to anniversaries, such as Welles Crowther, posthumously awarded on the anniversary of his story breaking in the New York Times — a pattern that doesn't obviously predict a living entertainment/sports-business executive like White, though sports figures (Clemens, Rivera, Woods, Cousy) are also a recurring category. - [2026-10-08] Trump's base-rate pattern also includes announced-but-not-yet-presented intentions, e.g., Trump has also announced his intentions to award the medals to Rudy Giuliani... and to Ben Carson , showing a backlog of "intended" recipients that can take months to be formally presented — suggesting that even if White were informally favored, actual presentation could slip past Jan. 1, 2027. - [2026-06-16] Dana White's relationship with Trump remains close and publicly visible — he co-staged UFC Freedom 250 at the White House on Trump's 80th birthday — which is the kind of personal-friendship proximity that has preceded other medal awards (e.g., Clemens introducing Trump at a rally right before his surprise medal). (https://www.npr.org/2026/06/16/nx-s1-5859911/ufc-boss-says-never-again-white-house) - [2026-09-11] Historically, the base rate of any specific named, non-deceased, non-office-holding individual receiving the medal within a ~13-month market window is low given that Trump's full second-term list through Sept. 2026 numbers only two confirmed honorees (Kirk, Crowther) plus Clemens now announced — a small universe relative to the dozens of public figures speculated about in media and betting markets each year. BOTTOM LINE: Outside-view base rates are unfavorable: Trump has formally presented only ~2-3 Medals of Freedom in roughly 21 months of his second term, selection is entirely discretionary with no nomination pipeline, and Dana White currently appears only as speculative "tipped" chatter (reflected in, not independent of, betting markets) rather than any White House announcement or statement by Trump naming him. NOT FOUND: Any official White House announcement, Truth Social post, or on-the-record Trump statement naming Dana White as an intended or actual Presidential Medal of Freedom recipient; any White House press release listing 2026 remaining-year recipients; historical base rate specifically for "UFC/sports-business executives" as a sub-category.

YES means: Dana White is awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom (formally announced and/or presented by President Trump) at any point before January 1, 2027. - [2026-05-06] In an official White House transcript of remarks at a UFC Freedom 250 preview event, Trump personally name-checked White twice in the Oval Office ("Dana White was here last night... He loves this guy. He loves all of them") and praised him as central to the sport's mainstream rise, showing sustained, direct, personal proximity to Trump months after the earlier-documented Sept. 2025 exchange — exactly the kind of personal rapport that has preceded other 2026 awards. https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/DCPD-202600318/pdf/DCPD-202600318.pdf - [2026-07-13] At a "Freedom 250 Grand Prix" event, Trump again praised White publicly, telling the crowd the UFC White House event "which we hosted Dana White, who's a fantastic man, what he's done, the great job" — demonstrating Trump continues to publicly single out White by name for accolades a month after the UFC event, in the same breath he referenced previously having given Roger Clemens the Medal of Freedom. https://www.democrats.senate.gov/newsroom/trump-transcripts/transcript-president-trump-delivers-remarks-at-a-freedom-250-grand-prix-showcase-71326 - [2026-06-14 ceremony pattern] Trump's confirmed practice this term is to surprise honorees with the medal at high-profile public events tied to personal friendship (the Oct. 7 Clemens reveal at an RNC rally cited in prior research) — and White has already shared the stage with Trump at multiple marquee 2026 spectacles (UFC Freedom 250, the Freedom 250 Grand Prix), giving Trump a ready-made venue and precedent for an impromptu announcement. - [2025-09-21] Trump has a documented habit of volunteering warm, unprompted praise of White in real time to reporters ("the great Dana White") even when the topic is unrelated, matching the exact rhetorical pattern (casual superlative praise) Trump used just before publicly announcing medals for other friends/allies. https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/remarks-exchange-with-reporters-aboard-air-force-one-en-route-joint-base-andrews-5 - [2026-08-24] White remains an active, visible presence at Trump's "Freedom 250" branded spectacles beyond the UFC card — attending the IndyCar "Freedom 250 GP" in Washington D.C. in August 2026 and praising Trump's work — sustaining the relationship into the final third of 2026 and keeping White in physical proximity to settings where Trump has made surprise medal announcements. https://www.irishstar.com/sport/other-sports/donald-trump-indycar-dana-white-37586706 - [2026-08-04] Independent market-chatter coverage (not self-referential to this contract's own price) separately corroborates that bettors/analysts rank White as the single most likely next honoree among named entertainment/sports-adjacent candidates, reflecting that no other rival candidate (Stallone, Wiseman, Musk) has emerged as more probable in media discussion. https://www.irishstar.com/sport/other-sports/dana-white-trump-presidential-medal-37514426 - [2026-10-07 mechanism] The Roger Clemens precedent — a sports figure surprised with the medal at a political rally with no advance White House announcement — demonstrates the operative mechanism by which a YES could arrive suddenly and without warning for White too, meaning the "NOT FOUND" absence of an announcement does not preclude a last-minute presentation before Jan. 1, 2027, given nearly three months remain. - [2026-10-13] White's Contender Series Season 10 run concludes Oct. 13, 2026, freeing his schedule afterward for potential public appearances with Trump during the remaining ~11 weeks of the window, removing one practical scheduling constraint. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dana_White's_Contender_Series_season_10 BOTTOM LINE: The strongest case for YES rests not on any announcement (none exists) but on the mechanism: Trump has twice in 2026 (May and July) gone out of his way to publicly praise White by name at Trump-branded "Freedom" spectacles, mirrors the friendship-driven, surprise-announcement pattern he used for Clemens on Oct. 7, and has nearly three months left in the window with White remaining physically and rhetorically close to Trump. NOT FOUND: Any official White House statement, Truth Social post, or on-the-record Trump remark naming Dana White as an actual or intended Presidential Medal of Freedom recipient; any scheduled ceremony or rally where White is expected to appear with Trump before Jan. 1, 2027.

YES means: Dana White is awarded (named and/or formally presented with) the Presidential Medal of Freedom by President Trump at any point between now and January 1, 2027. - [2026-10-08] The most recent medal recipient, Roger Clemens, was a surprise, off-the-cuff announcement at a campaign rally with no prior signal — Trump "surprised Clemens and told him he will be honored," underscoring that recipients are chosen unpredictably and White has not been one of the surprise picks across two years of second-term announcements. https://www.foxnews.com/outkick-sports/trump-says-hell-give-roger-clemens-presidential-medal-freedom-this-supersedes-anything-ive-done - [2026-10-08] Critically for deadline risk, the same Yahoo Sports report notes a real precedent of announcement-to-ceremony lag: Trump announced in February that Winnipeg Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck would receive the Medal of Freedom for his heroics in Team USA's gold medal win at the Olympics, and barring some sort of private ceremony in the months since, Hellebuyck has yet to receive the award. This shows that even a public verbal commitment from Trump does not guarantee formal bestowal within even seven-plus months, which is directly relevant if White gets an "announcement" late in the market window. - [2026-10-08] A second pending case reinforces this lag pattern: the article also notes it remains to be seen when Clemens will receive the Medal of Freedom, and Trump announced in February that Connor Hellebuyck would receive the Medal of Freedom... barring some sort of private ceremony in the months since, Hellebuyck has yet to receive the award — i.e., two separate named, "committed" honorees are still outstanding months later, suggesting formal presentation (as opposed to a verbal promise) is the slower, bottleneck step a Kalshi grader would likely require. - [2026-10-08] Confusingly, some hockey-press coverage from February 25, 2026 described Hellebuyck as having been "awarded" the medal the same week it was announced, while other contemporaneous reporting (Outkick, SOTU night) frames it only as a forward-looking announcement ("will be presenting Connor with our highest civilian honor") — this inconsistency in what counts as "awarded" versus merely "announced" is a genuine resolution-criteria ambiguity that could delay or complicate a Kalshi settlement even if Trump verbally names White before Jan 1, 2027. https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/winnipeg-jets/latest-news/connor-hellebuyck-awarded-with-presidential-medal-of-freedom-from-president-donald-trump - [2026-09-11] The authoritative CRS tracker's own methodology lists recipients by award "year" in a single column with no separate "announced" vs. "presented" distinction, meaning official record-keeping itself can lag informal remarks by months — a graders' source (like CRS or a White House release) may not update until well after any Trump remark, creating risk that a late-2026 verbal mention of White is not reflected in any citable record before Jan 1, 2027. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R47639 - [2026-10-07] As of the most recent confirmed award, the second-term Trump medal list remains small and sports figures chosen so far (Hellebuyck, Clemens) are honored for discrete, unambiguous achievements (Olympic gold, Hall-of-Fame-caliber career) rather than for business/promotional ties to Trump, which is a weaker precedent for a sports-executive/promoter profile like White's. https://www.foxnews.com/outkick-sports/trump-says-hell-give-roger-clemens-presidential-medal-freedom-this-supersedes-anything-ive-done - [2025-?] Historically, Kalshi's own settlement practice shows the platform leans on "official outcome source" confirmation and sometimes resolves on technicalities or initial/partial information rather than updated facts, as seen in unrelated UFC and Oscars-viewership disputes — meaning that even an ambiguous or partial signal about White (e.g., a passing remark without formal presentation) could be adjudicated conservatively as insufficient for YES. https://predictionnews.com/news/kalshi-ufc-resolution-echoes-2025-oscars-viewership-market/ - [2026-08-04] Despite White being the market's own highest-priced speculative contender in August, that same reporting is explicit that the 24% figure was "according to probabilities listed on prediction market platform Kalshi," i.e., self-referential market chatter rather than any independent reporting of White House intent — removing it as evidence of an imminent YES. https://www.irishstar.com/sport/other-sports/dana-white-trump-presidential-medal-37514426 - [2026-10-13] White remains tied up in ordinary business obligations (Contender Series Season 10 running through Oct. 13, 2026) with no reported appearances alongside Trump in any medal-related context since the June White House UFC event, suggesting no near-term White House event is scheduled where such an announcement would naturally occur. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dana_White's_Contender_Series_season_10 BOTTOM LINE: The strongest NO evidence is structural: Trump has a documented, recent pattern (Hellebuyck, and now apparently Clemens) of announcing medal recipients well before any formal presentation, with Hellebuyck still not confirmed as formally presented many months after a February announcement — so even a hypothetical late-2026 Trump remark naming White would carry real risk of the actual "award" slipping past the Jan 1, 2027 deadline, compounding the base-rate problem that White has never yet been named by Trump at all. NOT FOUND: Any official White House statement, Truth Social post, or press release confirming Dana White as a Medal of Freedom recipient; confirmation of whether Hellebuyck has since (as of Oct 2026) had a formal presentation ceremony; any Kalshi-specific published rule text clarifying whether a "will receive" announcement (as opposed to physical presentation) is sufficient for this market's YES resolution.