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Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?

polymarketFinancials·2026-10-10·view on polymarket ↗
88%
Agent
86%
Market Price
+1.3%
Edge
71%
Confidence
91,442
Volume
3.0c
Spread
82
Days to resolution
3
Markets in event
final rationale
Mean of 5 draws (0.89, 0.89, 0.86, 0.86, 0.88). (0) Not yet resolved. The resolution source (@jumperapp) shows the JUMP sale on Legion, which ran Sep 29 to Oct 2, but no listing. Cryptorank shows $0.00 volume and CoinGecko lists JUMP as untradable. The Aspecta pre-market opening Oct 12 is a synthetic product and does not count. What still has to happen is a TGE plus public tradability by Dec 31, 2026. (a) About 82 days remain. (b) If nothing changes, there is no tradable token and the market resolves No. The momentum, though, is strongly toward a TGE. (c) NO scenario: Jumper delays the TGE into 2027, for example to wait for better market conditions, for exchange-listing negotiations, or for regulatory reasons. Legion's mechanics let the project withdraw the raised capital before delivering tokens, so nothing in the sale binds the timeline, and "Q4" targets do slip. (d) YES scenario: the TGE comes in October or November. Supporting signals: Jumper's official account posted "see you at tge" on Oct 6, the allocation plan was published Oct 7, and the vesting terms are 50% at TGE. JUMP is the project's sole value-accrual vehicle, with no equity, and the raise was oversubscribed roughly 24x. Projects that complete a Legion sale almost always TGE within weeks to a couple of months. I anchor on the market's 86.5% (bid 85 / ask 88) and nudge slightly up. The completed sale and the team's own first-person TGE signal make a launch within about 12 weeks quite likely. I keep about 11% for slippage and for ambiguity over what counts as "official."
price vs. prediction
market price agent forecast at t+0
8 follow-ups
re-scan context
This market has been scanned before. Previous predictions:
datepredictedmarket priceconfidence
2026-09-25 85% 87% 67%
1. Planner Opus 5.5 · picks the research tools
Tools chosen: polymarket_direct resolution_source polymarket_related kalshi_related article_search
Planner reasoning
This is a Polymarket question, so polymarket_direct is the price anchor, and resolution_source should check Jumper's X account. polymarket_related can surface linked markets (LI.FI token, other airdrop/token-launch markets) for cross-signal, and kalshi_related checks whether Kalshi prices the same question. I'll add one targeted search for any LI.FI/Jumper token or TGE announcement, since the rules hinge on Jumper officially claiming the token.
2. Research parallel tool calls + 4 web research loops (Sonnet 5) · read raw by the forecasters
at a glance
RESEARCH DIGEST (built in code: tool summaries and each report's bottom line; the forecasters read the full tool outputs and reports) Tools - polymarket_direct: ## This Market's Polymarket Data **Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?** - Current price (probability): 86.50% (live; bid 85% / ask 88%) - 7-day price change: -1.00% - 30-day price change: +50.00% - Total volume: $91,442 (USD notional) - Price range: 33.00% - 88.00% - Data points: 30 days - resolution_source: already_resolved=unclear; matches_criteria=True; last_updated=Oct 8 (most recent dated tweet). Jumper's pinned tweet (Sep 25) announces a 'JUMP token sale' on @legiondotcc starting Tuesday, 29th September, but there is no indication in the fetched text that the JUMP token is actively and publicly tradable yet. - polymarket_related: Polymarket search over 3 keyword(s), kept 9 matches. keyword 'Jumper token': 3 markets | keyword 'LI.FI token': 5 markets | keyword 'Jumper airdrop': 1 markets - kalshi_related: 0 related markets / summaries. keyword 'Jumper token': no matches | keyword 'LI.FI': no matches - article_search: Fetched 16 unique articles across 2 queries (lookback=60d). 'Jumper LI.FI token TGE announcement': 8 articles | 'Jumper Exchange airdrop token launch date': 8 articles Research loops, bottom lines - current state: Jumper has completed a heavily oversubscribed $48.6M JUMP token sale (closed Oct 2, 2026) and publicly committed to launching the token ("TGE") separately, with third-party trackers estimating Q4 2026 (possibly mid-to-late October) — but as of Oct 9-10, 2026, Jumper itself has not announced an official TGE/listing date, and the token is not yet publicly tradable (price trackers show $0.00). This strongly suggests near-term momentum toward a launch well before the Dec 31, 2026 deadline, though th - base rate: The reference class here is favorable to "Yes": Jumper has already moved far beyond the speculative-airdrop stage that characterized LI.FI/Jumper for 2023–2026, having completed a heavily oversubscribed paid sale with explicit TGE/vesting terms (50% unlock at TGE) and a team-stated Q4 2026 TGE target — projects at this stage of launchpad process historically do launch a tradable token within weeks to a few months, making an eventual token launch by Dec 31, 2026 quite plausible, though the exact - yes case: Jumper has moved from "planned" to actively signaling TGE imminence via its own account (Oct 6 "see you at tge"), live reward-date voting, a $120M FDV pre-market venue launch (Oct 12), and contractually defined TGE-triggered token unlocks — all pointing to a near-term (likely October/November) TGE that would comfortably clear the Dec 31, 2026 deadline if it proceeds as currently signaled. - no case: Nothing in Jumper's own official channels fixes a TGE date, exchange listing, or trading venue; every concrete date in circulation (Oct 12 pre-market, Oct 15 "rewards" vote) is either a synthetic derivative product or unverified community chatter, and Legion's own sale mechanics decouple a successfully closed raise from any guaranteed, timely token delivery — leaving real structural room for slippage past Dec 31, 2026 even though momentum currently favors an earlier launch.
tools
toolstatustimeitemssummary
polymarket_direct OK 0.3s 1 ## This Market's Polymarket Data **Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?** - Current price (probability): 86.50% (live; bid 85% / ask 88%) - 7-day price change: -1.00% - 30-day price change: +50.00% - Total volume: $91,442 (USD notional) - Price range: 33.00% - 88.00% - Data points: 30 d
resolution_source OK 5.5s 1 already_resolved=unclear; matches_criteria=True; last_updated=Oct 8 (most recent dated tweet). Jumper's pinned tweet (Sep 25) announces a 'JUMP token sale' on @legiondotcc starting Tuesday, 29th September, but there is no indication in the fetched text that the JUMP token is actively and publicly tr
polymarket_related OK 0.4s 9 Polymarket search over 3 keyword(s), kept 9 matches. keyword 'Jumper token': 3 markets | keyword 'LI.FI token': 5 markets | keyword 'Jumper airdrop': 1 markets
kalshi_related OK 2.3s 0 0 related markets / summaries. keyword 'Jumper token': no matches | keyword 'LI.FI': no matches
article_search OK 0.4s 16 Fetched 16 unique articles across 2 queries (lookback=60d). 'Jumper LI.FI token TGE announcement': 8 articles | 'Jumper Exchange airdrop token launch date': 8 articles
research loops · 4/4 ok · 16 searches · 6 page reads
dimensionstatustimesearchespage readsreport
current state OK 29s 4 2 5165 chars
base rate OK 34s 4 2 5426 chars
yes case OK 26s 4 2 4096 chars
no case SNIPPETS 43s 4 0 4694 chars · no page read; snippets only
report: current state
- [2026-09-22/26] Jumper (spun out from LI.FI) officially announced via press release that it would conduct its first independent token sale (JUMP) through Legion, with the token "planned to launch separately following the fundraising process." The JUMP token is planned to launch separately following the fundraising process. (https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/26/3369413/0/en/jumper-to-launch-jump-token-sale-on-legion-as-it-spins-out-to-build-the-super-app-for-onchain-finance.html) - [2026-09-29 to 2026-10-02] The JUMP public sale ran on Legion. Hosted on Legion, the sale raised $48,613,947 against a starting target of just $2,000,000, a jump of 2431%. (https://www.coingabbar.com/en/jumper-token-presale-ended-base-season-and-jump-listing-date) - [2026-10-07] Jumper publicly disclosed the token sale allocation plan. PANews reported that Jumper has announced the allocation plan for the JUMP token sale, receiving approximately $48.614 million in subscription commitments from 9,690 participants, more than 24 times the initial target of $2 million, with a final accepted amount of $3 million; $1.64 million, or about 55% of total sales, was allocated to community wallets, with weights determined primarily by Jumper Loyalty Pass (JLP) tier and ranking. (https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/jumper-allocates-55-of-jump-token-sale-to-community-wallets) - [as of 2026-10-07] No official TGE date has been confirmed by Jumper itself; third-party trackers list it as "TBA" or "expected Q4 2026." The Base Campaign is live now with six protocols, while the JUMP TGE and listing are expected in Q4 2026, possibly mid to late October. (https://www.coingabbar.com/en/jumper-token-presale-ended-base-season-and-jump-listing-date) - [2026-10-07] A community account floated a rewards-date vote, not a listing date. A post from an account called Jumper Ecosystem claims JUMP could get a rewards window as early as October 15, but that post is about a vote, not a confirmed exchange listing, and the account behind it has not been verified as officially tied to Jumper Exchange. (https://www.coingabbar.com/en/jump-token-listing-date-tge-on-october-15-jump-presale-closed) - [2026-10-09] Pre-market derivatives trading for JUMP (not the token itself) is set to open on Aspecta. The Jumper token pre market opens on Aspecta on October 12 at 9 AM UTC, long and short trading starting at a 120 million dollar FDV, as confirmed in Aspecta's own X post. Long and short positions start at a 120 million dollar FDV. This is a synthetic/pre-market product, not JUMP itself being tradable. (https://www.coingabbar.com/en/jumper-token-pre-market-live-on-aspecta-as-jump-listing-date) - [2026-10-09] As of this date, no official JUMP listing date has been confirmed by the Jumper team. No official JUMP listing date exists yet. October 15 remains pure speculation until the team puts out an official announcement. (https://www.coingabbar.com/en/jumper-token-pre-market-live-on-aspecta-as-jump-listing-date) - [as of 2026-10-10] Live price trackers show the token has not yet begun trading: Current Jumper (JUMP) token data: Price $ 0.00, Trading Volume $ 0.00, Market Cap $ 0.00, Total Supply 1.00B. (https://cryptorank.io/price/jumper-exchange) - [as of 2026-10-10] Tokenomics details confirm vesting structure requiring TGE to trigger unlocks: If all 40 million tokens are distributed, 20 million would be scheduled to unlock at TGE under the stated 50% initial release, while the other 20 million would be released during the following four months. Investor and team allocations have substantially longer lockups, with investors having no TGE unlock and a 12-month cliff, while team tokens have no TGE release and a 24-month cliff. (https://www.coingabbar.com/en/crypto-ico/jumper) - [2026-09-26] Jumper's parallel product launch, Jumper Perps, was described as imminent but separate from the token launch: Jumper's next major launch is Jumper Perps, which will aggregate perpetual futures venues into a single trading experience and is slated to go live in the coming weeks. This signals continued active product development ahead of the token launch. (https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/26/3369413/0/en/jumper-to-launch-jump-token-sale-on-legion-as-it-spins-out-to-build-the-super-app-for-onchain-finance.html) BOTTOM LINE: Jumper has completed a heavily oversubscribed $48.6M JUMP token sale (closed Oct 2, 2026) and publicly committed to launching the token ("TGE") separately, with third-party trackers estimating Q4 2026 (possibly mid-to-late October) — but as of Oct 9-10, 2026, Jumper itself has not announced an official TGE/listing date, and the token is not yet publicly tradable (price trackers show $0.00). This strongly suggests near-term momentum toward a launch well before the Dec 31, 2026 deadline, though the exact date remains unconfirmed. NOT FOUND: An official TGE/listing date announcement directly from Jumper's own channels (https://x.com/jumperapp or jumper.xyz); confirmation of whether JUMP has begun actual public trading (as opposed to pre-market derivatives) as of October 10, 2026.
report: base rate
- [2026-09-22] Jumper (the LI.FI-incubated consumer app) formally announced it would spin out as an independent company and conduct its first-ever token sale (JUMP) via Legion, with the token itself "planned to launch separately following the fundraising process." On September 22, 2026, Jumper announced plans for its first JUMP token sale through Legion as it becomes an independent company, and the JUMP token is planned to launch separately following the fundraising process. - [2026-09-29] The JUMP token sale opened on Legion (Sept 29, 13:00 UTC – Oct 2, 13:00 UTC), a cash-raise event, not the token launch itself. Jumper scheduled its JUMP token sale on Legion for Sep. 29 at 13:00 UTC, with the three-day offering set to close on Oct. 2 at the same time. - [2026-10-02] The sale closed massively oversubscribed, raising $48,613,947 against a starting target of just $2,000,000, a jump of 2431% , with 48,613,947 in committed capital from 9,690 participants, over 24 times the original goal . - [2026-10-07] Jumper announced its allocation plan post-sale, confirming distribution mechanics ( approximately $48.614 million in purchase commitments from 9,690 participants… with a final accepted amount of $3 million… $1.64 million, accounting for about 55% of the total sales, is allocated to the community wallet ), but still no TGE date. - [2026-10-09] Aspecta announced JUMP pre-market (synthetic/derivative) trading would open Oct 12, which is distinct from an actual token launch; the article notes "JUMP's presale closed with record demand, but the Jumper token listing date is not locked in... so JUMP holders should wait" for official confirmation. - [2026-10-07] Multiple outlets (CoinGabbar, Legion listing pages) consistently report: "No official JUMP listing date has been confirmed by the team yet... the JUMP TGE and listing are widely expected in Q4 2026, with mid to late October floated as a likely window given how quickly the presale wrapped." - [2026-10-10] A disputed/unverified community account floated a "rewards date" vote for Oct 15 or Nov 15, but reporting cautions "A post from an account called Jumper Ecosystem claims JUMP could get a rewards window as early as October 15. But that post is about a vote, not a confirmed exchange listing, and the account behind it has not been verified." - Reference-class pattern: Similar DeFi aggregator/infra projects (LI.FI itself, Socket/Bungee) have run multi-year "points/XP" and airdrop speculation programs without ever converting to a live token — "LI.FI, Jumper Exchange, and Socket have no confirmed token launches or official airdrops to date" as of ~Sept 2026, despite years of "Loyalty Pass"/XP farming since March 2023. This shows that token-launch rumors in this specific ecosystem have historically run for years (2023–2026) before converting to an actual confirmed sale, and even now (post-sale) actual tradability has not yet occurred. - Base-rate for launchpad sales generally: projects that complete a public/Legion-style token sale overwhelmingly do proceed to a TGE and exchange listing within weeks to a few months, since the sale itself is typically the final step before TGE, not a separate multi-year gating event — unlike LI.FI's multi-year undelivered "airdrop speculation," Jumper has already (a) spun out as an independent entity, (b) completed and oversubscribed a real paid sale, and (c) published vesting/unlock terms (50% at TGE), all of which are strong, concrete commitments rarely abandoned post-sale in the crypto industry. 50% of JUMP tokens unlock at TGE, and the remaining 50% unlock in a straight line over 4 months. - Polymarket-adjacent reporting on the sale size (not this contract) shows market participants treating the raise and eventual TGE/listing as highly likely outcomes already priced in: "Polymarket traders give a raise above $30 million an 85% chance, while a raise above $50 million sits near a coin flip at 38%." (This reflects sentiment on raise-size markets, not the token-launch market itself.) - No historical case was found of a project that (a) announced spin-out, (b) ran and fully closed an oversubscribed public sale with published vesting terms, and then (c) failed to ever launch a tradable token — such reversals are rare industry-wide, though delays past a stated "Q4" target quarter are common. BOTTOM LINE: The reference class here is favorable to "Yes": Jumper has already moved far beyond the speculative-airdrop stage that characterized LI.FI/Jumper for 2023–2026, having completed a heavily oversubscribed paid sale with explicit TGE/vesting terms (50% unlock at TGE) and a team-stated Q4 2026 TGE target — projects at this stage of launchpad process historically do launch a tradable token within weeks to a few months, making an eventual token launch by Dec 31, 2026 quite plausible, though the exact TGE date remains officially unconfirmed as of Oct 10, 2026. NOT FOUND: No official TGE/exchange-listing date confirmed by Jumper's own channels (x.com/jumperapp) as of Oct 10, 2026; no independent "base rate" statistic exists tracking what fraction of Legion-hosted sales convert to on-time TGE within the stated quarter; could not confirm whether the Oct 12 Aspecta "pre-market" constitutes actual public tradability under the question's resolution criteria (it is widely described as a synthetic/derivative pre-market, not the token itself).
report: yes case
YES means: Jumper officially launches its JUMP token, with that token becoming actively and publicly tradable, at any point between now and December 31, 2026. - [2026-10-06] Jumper's own official account posted directly "see you at tge," a first-person signal from Jumper's primary channel (not a third party) that a TGE is imminent and actively anticipated by the team itself, going beyond the Sept 26 press release's vaguer "launch separately" language (https://x.com/jumperapp). - [2026-10-07] A KuCoin community recap independently corroborated this, noting that after months of Jumper XP speculation "@jumperapp just posted: 'see you at tge 🫡' Alongside an 'AirDrop , Community' card," i.e., Jumper itself is now explicitly branding the token/airdrop rollout, even though exact date/allocation details are still undisclosed (https://www.kucoin.com/news/insight/LINEA/6ac6012938a264000792f89a). - [2026-10-12 scheduled] Aspecta, a third-party derivatives venue, is launching JUMP pre-market long/short trading at a $120M FDV starting 9 AM UTC Oct 12, with its own product design explicitly built to bridge into and past the real TGE ("trading continues even after TGE happens"), showing external market infrastructure is already staged and timed for an imminent TGE (https://www.coingabbar.com/en/jumper-token-pre-market-live-on-aspecta-as-jump-listing-date). - [2026-10-07] An unverified "Jumper Ecosystem" account opened a live community vote offering October 15 or November 15 as reward-distribution windows, which — while not itself a listing confirmation — indicates the team-adjacent ecosystem is actively finalizing logistics for a near-term (within-October) rather than distant rollout (https://www.coingabbar.com/en/jump-token-listing-date-tge-on-october-15-jump-presale-closed). - [2026-10-07] Legion's own listing page states the public allocation vesting is "50% at TGE, 50% linear over 4 months," a structural commitment that only makes economic sense if a TGE unlock event actually occurs on a defined near-term schedule, reinforcing that Jumper has built contractual unlock mechanics around an imminent TGE rather than an open-ended "maybe" (https://coinlaunch.space/events-rounds/jumper-exchange-legion-ico-round/). - [2026-10-09] OKX community analysis treats TGE as a near-certainty already "roughly Q4," debating listing venues (Binance Alpha vs. Upbit) rather than whether a TGE happens at all — market participants are pricing in the launch as essentially assured, only disputing timing and venue prestige (https://www.okx.com/en-us/orbit/insight/88691365737376). - [2026-09-25] Jumper's official announcement framed JUMP as existentially central to the company's post-spinout structure, stating the token is "the sole mechanism for users, contributors, and investors to participate in the project's growth," with "no Jumper equity" — meaning the company has no fallback funding/equity structure and is financially committed to delivering a tradable token (https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/09/25/jumper-announces-jump-token-sale-starting-september-29/). - [2026-10-09] Even skeptical coverage cautioning against the Oct 15 rumor still frames the TGE as the unambiguous "next major milestone," stating "the team has confirmed the next major milestone is the token generation event and the listing that follows" — confirming Jumper has affirmed a TGE is coming, only the exact date is unconfirmed (https://www.coingabbar.com/en/jumper-token-pre-market-live-on-aspecta-as-jump-listing-date). BOTTOM LINE: Jumper has moved from "planned" to actively signaling TGE imminence via its own account (Oct 6 "see you at tge"), live reward-date voting, a $120M FDV pre-market venue launch (Oct 12), and contractually defined TGE-triggered token unlocks — all pointing to a near-term (likely October/November) TGE that would comfortably clear the Dec 31, 2026 deadline if it proceeds as currently signaled. NOT FOUND: An exact, officially confirmed TGE/listing date or confirmation of actual public exchange tradability (as opposed to pre-market derivatives) as of October 10, 2026.
report: no case
YES means: Jumper officially launches its own JUMP token and that token becomes actively, publicly tradable (per Jumper's own announcement/channels) on or before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. - [2026-10-09] Jumper's own team has issued no TGE/listing date; third-party trackers state plainly that "No official JUMP listing date exists yet" and that even the Oct 12 Aspecta pre-market "launch rules and schedule may still be adjusted before launch." (https://www.coingabbar.com/en/jumper-token-pre-market-live-on-aspecta-as-jump-listing-date) - [2026-10-07] The only forward-looking signal attributed to "Jumper Ecosystem" about October 15 was explicitly a community rewards-window vote, not a listing commitment, and reporting flags that "the account behind it has not been verified as officially tied to Jumper Exchange." (https://www.coingabbar.com/en/jump-token-listing-date-tge-on-october-15-jump-presale-closed) - [2026-10-09] CoinGabbar's independent tokenomics review explicitly lists "Exchange Listing · TBA" and separately warns under risks that "A token offering does not guarantee a centralized or decentralized exchange listing," underscoring that the completed sale creates no contractual obligation on timing. (https://www.coingabbar.com/en/crypto-ico/jumper) - [~2026-09-16] A third-party guide on the Jumper/LI.FI ecosystem (independent of the colleague reports' sourcing) corroborates the multi-year pattern of unfulfilled token speculation, stating "Neither Jumper nor LI.FI has confirmed a token launch or airdrop" historically through the Loyalty Pass XP program. (https://eco.com/support/en/articles/14300508-what-is-jumper-exchange-guide-to-cross-chain-swaps) - [2026-10-01] Legion's sale mechanics structurally decouple capital raised from token delivery: in "pre-liquid approved sales, the project can withdraw raised capital after the refund window closes, while token delivery still waits for TGE details and token supply to the sale contract" — meaning a closed, funded sale carries no binding timeline for the TGE itself. (https://cryptoslate.com/launchpads/legion-review/) - [2026-09-25] The sale itself was geographically restricted — "Jurisdictions excluded by Legion include the United States, the United Kingdom, the UAE, Russia, Iran, Syria, North Korea, Cuba, and sanctioned regions of Ukraine" — illustrating the regulatory complexity that could constrain exactly how and where JUMP becomes "publicly tradable," a factor the resolution criteria do not address explicitly. (https://www.kucoin.com/news/flash/jumper-announces-jump-token-sale-dates) - [~2026-09-30] CoinGecko's own listing page states plainly that "JUMP tokens are currently unavailable to trade on exchanges listed on CoinGecko," confirming the token had zero verified tradability as tracked by a major aggregator even after the sale closed. (https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/jumper) - [2026-10-01] A separate tracker (Coinranking) shows a "JUMP" pair already active on "Uniswap v2 (Base)" with nonzero trading volume despite no official TGE — a discrepancy suggesting either an unofficial/impostor token or premature data, which illustrates the resolution-criteria risk of distinguishing an "official" Jumper-branded token from look-alike or unauthorized listings that would not count per the rules. (https://coinranking.com/coin/Jn5mNERm1Wc4+jumper-jump/exchanges) - [2026-10-09] Analysts explicitly caution market participants to "wait for the team's own confirmation before treating any listing date as fact," reflecting that all current Q4-2026 timing (including "mid-to-late October") is analyst extrapolation, not a Jumper commitment, and vesting cliffs (12–24 month lockups for investors/team) show no urgency pressure on Jumper to rush a listing before year-end. (https://www.coingabbar.com/en/jumper-token-pre-market-live-on-aspecta-as-jump-listing-date) BOTTOM LINE: Nothing in Jumper's own official channels fixes a TGE date, exchange listing, or trading venue; every concrete date in circulation (Oct 12 pre-market, Oct 15 "rewards" vote) is either a synthetic derivative product or unverified community chatter, and Legion's own sale mechanics decouple a successfully closed raise from any guaranteed, timely token delivery — leaving real structural room for slippage past Dec 31, 2026 even though momentum currently favors an earlier launch. NOT FOUND: Any binding, dated commitment from Jumper's official X/website to a specific TGE or listing date; any precedent within the Jumper/LI.FI ecosystem itself of a stated "Q4" launch target being missed (none yet observed, but also no track record of Jumper hitting a stated deadline, since this is its first token).
3. Forecasters 5 draws · Opus 5.5 + GPT-6 Astra + GPT-5.6 Sol · plain mean
claude-opus-5-5 · high effort
70% conf
Yes 89%
No 11%
(0) Not yet resolved. The resolution source (@jumperapp) shows the JUMP sale on Legion, which ran Sep 29 to Oct 2, but no listing. Cryptorank shows $0.00 volume and CoinGecko lists JUMP as untradable. The Aspecta pre-market opening Oct 12 is a synthetic product and does not count. What still has to happen is a TGE plus public tradability by Dec 31, 2026. (a) About 82 days remain. (b) If nothing changes, there is no tradable token and the market resolves No. The momentum, though, is strongly toward a TGE. (c) NO scenario: Jumper delays the TGE into 2027, for example to wait for better market conditions, for exchange-listing negotiations, or for regulatory reasons. Legion's mechanics let the project withdraw the raised capital before delivering tokens, so nothing in the sale binds the timeline, and "Q4" targets do slip. (d) YES scenario: the TGE comes in October or November. Supporting signals: Jumper's official account posted "see you at tge" on Oct 6, the allocation plan was published Oct 7, and the vesting terms are 50% at TGE. JUMP is the project's sole value-accrual vehicle, with no equity, and the raise was oversubscribed roughly 24x. Projects that complete a Legion sale almost always TGE within weeks to a couple of months. I anchor on the market's 86.5% (bid 85 / ask 88) and nudge slightly up. The completed sale and the team's own first-person TGE signal make a launch within about 12 weeks quite likely. I keep about 11% for slippage and for ambiguity over what counts as "official."
claude-opus-5-5 · high effort
70% conf
Yes 89%
No 11%
(0) Not yet resolved. Jumper ran and closed its JUMP sale on Legion (Sep 29–Oct 2, about $48.6M committed, $3M accepted) and published its allocation on Oct 7. But CryptoRank and CoinGecko show no trading as of Oct 10. The Aspecta pre-market opening Oct 12 is synthetic and would not count. (a) About 82 days remain until the Dec 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET deadline. (b) Status quo: the sale is finished and the TGE is pending. Jumper's own account posted 'see you at tge' on Oct 6. The vesting terms (50% unlocked at TGE) and the 'no Jumper equity' structure make the token the company's only funding vehicle. Third parties expect a mid-to-late October or Q4 TGE, so the default path is a launch within weeks. (c) NO: market conditions, listing negotiations, regulatory issues, or allocation and distribution logistics push the TGE into 2027. Legion's mechanics do not bind the project to a timeline, and Jumper has set no official date. (d) YES: Jumper announces a TGE in October or November, with a CEX or DEX listing and an airdrop to Loyalty Pass holders. This matches the base rate that Legion-style sales usually reach TGE within weeks to a couple of months. The market sits at 86.5% (bid 85%, ask 88%), with the June 2027 market at 95%. Given the official 'see you at tge' signal and the strong post-sale base rate, I lean slightly above the market. I keep about 11% on slippage past year-end, since no official date exists.
gpt-6-astra · high effort
71% conf
Yes 86%
No 14%
The condition is not yet documented as met: the resolution-source read of @jumperapp, updated through October 8, confirms the September 25 JUMP sale announcement but provides no confirmation of active public trading. Approximately 83 days remain until December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, by which time Jumper's official, qualifying token must actually be publicly tradable. I retain Polymarket's 86.5% YES anchor (85% bid, 88% ask), because the research supports strong launch momentum without establishing an informational edge warranting a price adjustment. The September 26 issuer press release establishes launch intent, while October 7 PANews reporting carried by KuCoin describes completed allocations and $3 million accepted from $48.6 million in commitments—materially stronger evidence than historical airdrop speculation. However, the reported October 6 'see you at tge' message supplies no deadline, Q4 timing remains third-party expectation rather than a verified team commitment, and the base-rate report provides no measured sale-to-launch success rate. If nothing changes, NO wins: the sale and scheduled Aspecta synthetic pre-market do not satisfy the rules, and Coinranking's isolated trading pair cannot establish qualifying tradability without authenticating the token. The 13.5% NO allocation covers cancellation, operational or regulatory slippage into 2027, and failure to establish qualifying trading; Legion's pre-liquid sale mechanics explicitly allow fundraising to precede token delivery without a binding launch timeline. A YES scenario is that Jumper completes its TGE during October or November, releases the announced initial allocation, and its authenticated JUMP token begins active public spot trading before year-end.
gpt-6-astra · high effort
68% conf
Yes 86%
No 14%
As of October 10, the resolving condition is not documented as met: the resolution-source read of @jumperapp shows an official JUMP sale announcement but no confirmation of active public trading. Roughly 12 weeks remain until December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, when an eligible official Jumper token must be publicly tradable. I retain Polymarket's 86.5% Yes anchor (85% bid/88% ask), because the research provides no compelling information demonstrably missing from that price. The September 26 company press release, October 7 allocation report ($48.6 million committed but $3 million accepted), and reported October 6 'see you at tge' message support near-term execution rather than mere airdrop speculation. However, Q4 timing lacks a verified official commitment in the supplied evidence, repeated CoinGabbar reports are not independent corroboration, and the base-rate research establishes no measured post-sale success rate. If nothing changes, No wins: neither the completed sale nor Aspecta's scheduled synthetic pre-market nor an unauthenticated namesake trading pair satisfies the rules. A plausible No scenario is technical, regulatory, or liquidity-related slippage into 2027, facilitated by sale mechanics that do not require immediate token delivery, as described in CryptoSlate's October 1 Legion review. A plausible Yes scenario is an October–December JUMP release followed by active public trading, authenticated through Jumper or credible reporting; the remaining 13.5% allows for deadline slippage and token-authentication or resolution-evidence problems.
gpt-5.6-sol · high effort
75% conf
Yes 88%
No 12%
(0) The condition is not already met: Jumper’s official account announced the JUMP sale and posted “see you at tge,” but the resolution-source read and live trackers show no official confirmation that JUMP is actively and publicly tradable. (a) Roughly 82 days remain until December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. (b) If nothing changes, the market resolves No because the completed sale, allocation announcement, and synthetic pre-market trading do not satisfy the public-tradability requirement. (c) A No scenario is that technical, regulatory, token-distribution, or exchange-listing work delays the TGE into 2027; no binding official launch date currently rules this out. (d) A Yes scenario is an official Jumper TGE followed by genuine exchange or DEX trading in October, November, or December, supported by the completed oversubscribed sale, published TGE-triggered vesting, and Jumper’s direct TGE signaling. I anchor on Polymarket’s 86.5% Yes price and move only slightly higher because projects that have completed paid sales with defined TGE unlocks usually launch within weeks or months, while retaining meaningful delay risk because all specific dates remain unofficial.
4. Final plain mean of 5 draws
88% (71% confidence)
Yes: 88% No: 12%
Mean of 5 draws (0.89, 0.89, 0.86, 0.86, 0.88). (0) Not yet resolved. The resolution source (@jumperapp) shows the JUMP sale on Legion, which ran Sep 29 to Oct 2, but no listing. Cryptorank shows $0.00 volume and CoinGecko lists JUMP as untradable. The Aspecta pre-market opening Oct 12 is a synthetic product and does not count. What still has to happen is a TGE plus public tradability by Dec 31, 2026. (a) About 82 days remain. (b) If nothing changes, there is no tradable token and the market resolves No. The momentum, though, is strongly toward a TGE. (c) NO scenario: Jumper delays the TGE into 2027, for example to wait for better market conditions, for exchange-listing negotiations, or for regulatory reasons. Legion's mechanics let the project withdraw the raised capital before delivering tokens, so nothing in the sale binds the timeline, and "Q4" targets do slip. (d) YES scenario: the TGE comes in October or November. Supporting signals: Jumper's official account posted "see you at tge" on Oct 6, the allocation plan was published Oct 7, and the vesting terms are 50% at TGE. JUMP is the project's sole value-accrual vehicle, with no equity, and the raise was oversubscribed roughly 24x. Projects that complete a Legion sale almost always TGE within weeks to a couple of months. I anchor on the market's 86.5% (bid 85 / ask 88) and nudge slightly up. The completed sale and the team's own first-person TGE signal make a launch within about 12 weeks quite likely. I keep about 11% for slippage and for ambiguity over what counts as "official."
Pipeline Timing
Total pipeline time: 107.3s
Per-tool research timings shown in the Research section above.