Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

- [2026-09-16] The FOMC raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% in a unanimous 12-0 vote, its first hike since 2023; Chair Kevin Warsh said "Inflation is too high and has been for too long." The FOMC voted 12-0 to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4%. In his press conference, Warsh said, "Inflation is too high and has been for too long." Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm - [2026-09-16] The accompanying Summary of Economic Projections showed the median participant expecting an additional 25bps hike ending 2026 at 4.1%, no change to the policy rate in 2027, and the median participant expecting the fed funds rate to end 2026 at 4.1%. Source: https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/portfolio-insights/fixed-income/fixed-income-perspectives/fomc-statement-september-2026/ - [2026-10-06] Official FRED data confirm the target range is unchanged since September 17: Federal Funds Target Range - Upper Limit (DFEDTARU) 2026-10-06: 4.00 , with the lower limit at 3.75%. Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU - [2026-10-28] The next (and relevant) FOMC meeting is scheduled for October 27–28, 2026, with the decision due the afternoon of October 28; this meeting does not include a new Summary of Economic Projections. Source: https://tools.tnaado.ca/us/fomc-meeting-dates-fed-funds-history/ - [2026-09-02] A government shutdown was averted: the government shutdown October 2026 did not happen; Trump signed a CR funding the government through December 11 nearly a full month before the deadline. This means BLS/BEA data releases ahead of the October meeting are not currently disrupted by a funding lapse. Source: https://govtschemes.org/government-shutdown-october-2026/ - [2026-10-02] After a weak September jobs report, market-implied October hike odds collapsed: CME FedWatch showed 21.59% for October... By 7 October, FXStreet put the October chance at 26%. Source: https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/us-cpi-september-2026-scenarios-fed-october - [2026-10-02] Prediction markets moved sharply toward "no change": the odds of a 0.25% rate cut by the Kevin Warsh-led Fed stood at 25% on Polymarket, down from 67% a week ago. In the same period, the probability of rates remaining unchanged soared from 33% to 75%. (Note: this source's "cut" label appears to actually describe hike-vs-hold pricing in context of a hiking cycle.) Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-still-track-hike-interest-074804267.html - [2026-10-02] NY Fed President John Williams signaled patience: Williams said policymakers "have time to gather more information" and "there is no need for urgency," though one further upward rate adjustment might be appropriate "late this year." Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/policy/articles/fed-still-track-hike-interest-074804267.html - [2026-10-09] CME FedWatch continues to show "no change" as the modal October outcome: traders are pricing in 17.7% odds of a rate hike in October and an 83% probability of an increase in December. Source: https://fxstreet.com/news/new-zealand-dollar-strengthens-above-05600-amid-softer-us-dollar-easing-yields-202610090243 - [2026-10-09] A separate mortgage-market report corroborates this: the CME FedWatch tool places the probability of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates at its current 3.75% to 4% range during the October FOMC meeting at roughly 78%. Source: https://archynewsy.com/78-fed-hold-probability-as-mortgage-rates-climb-to-6-73 - [2026-10-02/10-09] Kalshi/Polymarket-style aggregation shows a reversal from two weeks earlier: two weeks ago traders already leaned toward a hike; now a hold on Oct. 28 is the favorite, and December looks likelier still, with hold favored at 84% and a cut about 2%. Source: https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/fed-decision-odds/ - [2026-10-03] A rates-market note documents the magnitude of the repricing: CME FedWatch's October 28 table shows the meeting-specific hike probability at 22.1% and no-change at 77.9%, against 64.2% / 35.8% one week earlier. Source: https://investing.com/analysis/the-hike-that-moved--and-the-hike-that-disappeared-200689249 - [2026-10-09] Fed funds futures/OIS tracker shows current policy state and modest residual hike pricing: Target band 3.75–4.00%, with "Next meeting pricing 30% HIKE +7.0 to +7.4 bps" for the October 28 decision. Source: https://rateprobability.com/fed BOTTOM LINE: The Fed hiked 25bp to 3.75%–4.00% on 2026-09-16 (current rate, confirmed by Fed's own data through 2026-10-06), and no government shutdown is disrupting the data flow into the October 27–28 meeting. Multiple independent trackers (CME FedWatch, Kalshi, Polymarket, OIS-based) converged over the first two weeks of October on "hold" as the heavy favorite for October (~75–84% no-change, ~17–30% hike, ~2% cut), a sharp reversal from late-September pricing that had favored another hike, even as most sources still expect a possible hike in December. NOT FOUND: The September/October CPI print's exact release date and value (sources were inconsistent/contradictory about whether a shutdown delayed CPI; later, more authoritative reporting indicates no shutdown occurred in October 2026, so this discrepancy could not be resolved with certainty). Also could not find a post-October-2 official BLS jobs report confirming the specific payroll number cited by secondary sources.

- [2026-10-08] Market-implied odds (CME FedWatch) show an 81.6% probability that the US Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in the upcoming meeting scheduled for October 28, 2026. (https://growbeansprout.com/tools/fedwatch) - [2026-10-09] Across three venues (Kalshi, Polymarket international book, CME futures-implied), the October 27–28, 2026 meeting is priced at roughly 82–84% hold, 15–18% hike (25bp), and about 1% cut, with Kalshi closing hold at 83.5% and futures-implied at 82.0% on Oct 9. (https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/fed-rate-tracker/october-2026) - [2026-10-09] The same tracker notes hold-probability has risen sharply since late September: Kalshi's hold price moved from ~29–53% in late September to 73–84.5% by early October, reflecting a swing away from hike expectations after the September hike was delivered. (https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/fed-rate-tracker/october-2026) - [2026-09-16] The FOMC's most recent meeting did NOT hold rates: it voted 12-0 to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4% , the first hike since 2023, breaking what had been a long run of holds/cuts. (https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/09/16/feds-interest-rate-decision-september-16-2026) - [2026-09-16] Per the SEP released at that meeting, markets currently price in one more 25-basis-point interest rate hike in 2026, followed by continuing rate hikes extending into 2027 — i.e., the Fed's own dot plot and market pricing both envision at least one more hike before year-end, making the October or December meeting a plausible candidate for the "no change" bracket to fail. (https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/09/16/feds-interest-rate-decision-september-16-2026) - [2025-07-29 to 2025-05-06] Historical reference class before the hiking resumed: the FOMC held rates unchanged at essentially every meeting from January through July 2025 (target range 4.25%–4.50%), illustrating that "no change" is the modal outcome across most stretches. (https://www.emetropolitan.com/interest-rates/fed-meeting-history/) - [n.d.] Long-run base rate from FRED: over the past 20 years, the FOMC has held 184 meetings...the FOMC changed its monetary policy target 54 times — meaning roughly 70% of all FOMC meetings over two decades resulted in no change to the target range, versus ~30% with a change. (https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/tag/dfedtar) - [2026 cycle] Recent year-over-year pattern (per Forbes historical table): cuts in Sept/Oct/Dec 2025 (−25bp each), holds through most of H1 2026, then a hike in September 2026 — showing the Fed has been actively moving the rate at multiple consecutive meetings in this cycle rather than sitting still, unlike the 2023–2024 extended pause. (https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/fed-funds-rate-history-1/) - [2026-09-16] At the September meeting, three members had dissented in July favoring a hike, and the eventual September hike passed unanimously 12-0, indicating building internal momentum toward further tightening rather than reversion to "no change." (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html) - [2026-10-07] The predictionmarketspicks tracker shows the venue that was closest to the actual September outcome was CME futures-implied (94.3% on a hike), compared with Kalshi 86.5% and Polymarket 88.5% — all three market types correctly anticipated the hike with high confidence, suggesting the same venues' current ~81-84% "hold" lean for October is a reasonably calibrated signal given their recent accuracy. (https://predictionmarketspicks.com/tools/fed-rate-tracker/october-2026) BOTTOM LINE: The long-run historical base rate strongly favors "no change" (roughly 70% of all FOMC meetings over the last 20 years held rates steady), and current market pricing across CME FedWatch, Kalshi, and Polymarket converges around 81–84% for a hold at the October 2026 meeting; however, this specific cycle is atypical — the Fed just broke a long hold/cut pattern with a surprise September 2026 hike and both the dot plot and futures markets expect at least one more hike by year-end, somewhat elevating hike risk versus a "normal" meeting and making the ~80% hold probability lower than the simple historical base rate alone would suggest. NOT FOUND: An official, audited long-run "% of meetings resulting in no change" figure directly from the Federal Reserve (the 70%/30% split cited is derived from a third-party FRED blog analysis, not a Fed publication); no primary polling of professional forecasters (e.g., Reuters economist poll) for the specific October 28, 2026 meeting was located.

YES means: the FOMC leaves the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.75%–4.00% (upper bound 4.00%) at the conclusion of its October 27–28, 2026 meeting, i.e., a "no change" bracket outcome under the market's rules. - [2026-10-02] The September jobs report, released by BLS, showed nonfarm payrolls up only 29,000 (vs. ~84,000 expected) with two months of prior revisions cut by 60,000, the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%, and annual wage growth slowing to 3% y/y — "nonfarm payrolls increased only 29,000 and revisions cut 60,000 jobs from the prior two months... the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.2%... average hourly earnings edged up a weaker-than-expected 0.1%... the slowest annual wage growth since 2021." This is the single data point most cited for traders trimming hike bets right after release. - [2026-10-02] The same Bloomberg live-blog notes the market's direct policy reaction: "S&P 500 futures rose following the release and Treasury yields and the dollar declined, while traders trimmed bets for a Fed rate hike this year." - [2026-09-29] NY Fed President John Williams explicitly argued for patience after the September hike, saying "policymakers lean hawkish, though Williams sees no urgency for another hike... With the policy action we took at our September meeting, there is no need for urgency." This is the clearest on-record Fed voice arguing the Committee can skip October. - [2026-10-09] The Cleveland Fed's inflation nowcast — updated 10/08 — shows the monthly pace of price gains decelerating into October: October headline CPI nowcast at +0.27% m/m / core +0.20% m/m, down from September's +0.53% m/m headline (core unchanged at 0.20%), per Cleveland Fed data fetched directly. - [2026-10-09] A CPI preview explicitly frames the mechanism for a hold: "Forecasts point to a jump in headline CPI, mainly because of energy. Core CPI is where the surprise risk sits. A core reading of 0.3% or more could revive talk of an October rate hike. A core reading of 0.2% or less could keep the Fed on hold until December." Given the Cleveland Fed's core nowcast of 0.20%, the hold-triggering scenario currently looks more likely than the hike-triggering one. - [2026-10-14 scheduled] The September CPI report — the last inflation print before the meeting — is due before the decision: "The US CPI September 2026 report is due on Wednesday 14 October at 8:30 ET... Forecasts point to headline inflation rising from 3.4% to between 3.6% and 3.7% year on year. Core CPI is expected to stay near 2.4%... It is the last CPI print before the Fed announces its decision on 28 October." A core print at or below consensus (2.4%/0.2% m/m) would reinforce the hold case already favored by markets. - [2026-09-29] JOLTS data (published by BLS) showed a cooling rather than overheating labor market in the latest pre-meeting read: "The number of job openings was little changed at 7.1 million in August... Hires changed little at 5.2 million, while total separations were unchanged at 5.1 million. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) were unchanged, while layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) were essentially unchanged." A labor market that is merely cooling (not overheating) removes one of the classic triggers for an additional near-term hike. - [2026-09-16] Even the Fed's own September SEP, which penciled in further tightening, left the timing open: "Updated projections showed that 16 of 18 officials see the possibility of at least one more 25bps rate hike later this year with four penciling in two additional rate increases." Because the dot plot commits only to "later this year" and not specifically October, the Committee can satisfy its own median projection by hiking in December instead, leaving October as a "no change" meeting — a structurally available path to YES that does not require abandoning the tightening bias at all. - [2026-10-07] Independent market commentary notes the Fed's own messaging discipline is reinforcing data-dependence over a preset path, with Chair Warsh's deputies "willing to oblige" markets' wait-and-see framing rather than pre-committing to October action, per "Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has vowed to avoid sending clear signals to investors on where interest rates are headed. His top deputies made clear this week they're willing to oblige." - [2026-10-07] The Employment Situation's next release is not due until "The Employment Situation for October 2026 is scheduled to be published on November 6, 2026" — meaning the FOMC must decide on October 28 with the weak September payroll print as its freshest labor signal and no intervening data to overturn it, locking in the dovish labor read into the meeting. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest case for YES (no change) rests on a concrete, already-materialized data shock — the weak September jobs report (29k payrolls, 4.2% unemployment, slowing wages) — combined with explicit "no urgency" guidance from Williams, a cooling JOLTS print, and a Cleveland Fed nowcast pointing to a sub-0.3% core CPI reading on Oct 14 that would, by analysts' own stated threshold, keep the Fed on hold until December; critically, the Fed's own dot plot only commits to one more hike "later this year," not specifically at the October meeting, giving the Committee a structurally available path to deliver that hike in December while holding in October. NOT FOUND: The actual September CPI print (release is scheduled Oct 14, after this report's cutoff) and any post-October-2 FOMC-member speeches with explicit guidance on the October 28 decision specifically; official October meeting minutes obviously do not yet exist.

YES means: the FOMC holds the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.75%–4.00% after its October 27–28, 2026 meeting (i.e., no rate change is announced in the October 28 statement, and the "No change" bracket is triggered either by an actual hold decision or by the rules' fallback if no statement issues in time). - [2026-10-07] Fed minutes from the Sept. 15-16 meeting, released this week, show Federal Reserve officials expect they will raise interest rates again before the end of the year to head off inflation that has run above target for more than five years , and the meeting summary provided no indication of when specifically policymakers expected to raise benchmark rates – only that persistently higher prices and a stable labor market likely would lead to a second hike this year , leaving October technically open as the hike date. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/07/fed-officials-see-another-hike-coming-but-no-sign-as-to-when-minutes-show.html - [2026-10-08] Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a sitting FOMC voter, said further hikes are likely needed to return inflation to 2%, but they need not occur at consecutive meetings, leaving an October pause possible — explicitly not ruling out October, only flagging it as optional rather than off the table. https://archresearch.substack.com/p/fed-pause-expectations-rose-even - [2026-10-08] In the same Istanbul remarks, Waller said "If the economic data continue to come in as expected, I anticipate additional hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to our 2-per-cent goal," adding "there is some flexibility about when those hikes will occur. The hikes do not need to come at consecutive meetings, but they should be in place in an acceptable period of time." A hot September CPI print (due Oct 14) could plausibly accelerate that timeline back to October. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/economy/article-us-fed-governor-christopher-waller-rate-path-october-meeting/ - [2026-10-08] A UOB research note on the minutes states policymakers agreed inflation remained elevated, the labour market was near maximum employment and economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace... most judged that another rate increase would likely be appropriate by year-end , and that the minutes "certainly did not commit themselves to any move in the upcoming Oct FOMC" — i.e., October hike risk is not zeroed out by the minutes, only deprioritized relative to December. https://www.fxstreet.com/news/federal-reserve-more-hikes-ahead-after-october-pause-uob-202610081303 - [2026-10-09] The decisive data point is still outstanding: US CPI for September 2026 is due 14 October at 8:30 ET , with forecasts point[ing] to headline inflation rising from 3.4% to between 3.6% and 3.7% year on year — a reacceleration, not a cooling, in the headline rate just two weeks before the meeting. https://admiralmarkets.com/analytics/traders-blog/us-cpi-september-2026-scenarios-fed-october - [2026-10-07] The Cleveland Fed's live nowcast corroborates the upside inflation risk: the Cleveland Fed's inflation nowcast, updated October 2, projects September CPI up 0.53% for the month and 3.60% over the year, with core CPI up 0.20% for the month and 2.39% over the year — a headline acceleration driven by energy that a hawkish, recently-unanimous (12-0 in September) FOMC majority could cite to justify a second consecutive hike. https://jorgai.com/blog/september-2026-cpi-report-preview-october-14 - [2026-09-11] The pre-hike inflation backdrop was already firm: US consumer prices rose 0.1% in August 2026 and 3.4% from a year earlier, with core inflation ticking up to 0.3% on the month and holding at 2.4% annually , inflation that is running, per Fed officials quoted elsewhere, more than a full percentage point above target — underscoring the hawks' case that "pause" rhetoric could flip quickly if the Oct 14 CPI surprises high. - [2026-10-01] Even officials framed as dovish on timing kept the hike door open: Vice Chair Jefferson's Oct. 1 remarks noted Jefferson still sees inflation risks tilted to the upside and supported September's rate hike, leaving another increase later this year on the table , meaning the committee's working assumption is one more hike this cycle, with October and December both live candidates. https://crypto.news/fed-officials-lean-toward-pausing-rate-hikes-in-october-could-bitcoin-benefit/ - [2026-10-08] Despite soft payrolls, Cleveland Fed President Hammack's message was about patience, not dovishness: she said only that officials have time to evaluate economic data after a weak jobs print — a "data-dependent, not pre-committed" stance that leaves a hike possible if CPI surprises hot, rather than a firm pre-announced pause. https://wearesavers.com/world/us/2026/10/03/fed-pauses-rate-hike-signals-after-jobs-data - [2026-10-08] Polymarket's own multi-meeting path pricing (distinct from the single-meeting October contract) still assigns real weight to consecutive hikes: Polymarket's Hike–Pause–Hike path rose 6.0 pp over the day to 65.5%, while the Hike–Hike–Hike path fell 2.0 pp to 8.5% — i.e., roughly one-in-twelve path-probability still sits on an immediate second hike this month, not merely a later one. https://archresearch.substack.com/p/fed-pause-expectations-rose-even - [2026-10-10] No government-shutdown or data-blackout risk currently threatens the Oct 28 statement's timely release (per the CR through Dec. 11 noted in prior research), so the rules' fallback clause — resolving to "No change" only if no statement is issued by the end of the next scheduled meeting — has no plausible triggering mechanism this cycle; a hike resolution would have to come from an actual FOMC vote, not a technicality. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest case against "No change" rests on the Fed's own September minutes and multiple sitting voters (Waller, Jefferson) explicitly keeping October open as a hike date, combined with a September CPI print due October 14 that is forecast to show headline inflation reaccelerating to 3.6–3.7% — a data point that, if it surprises hot, could flip a committee that just voted 12-0 to hike and has stated more tightening is needed this year. The "no change" fallback via missing-statement technicality is not realistically in play given no shutdown risk before October 28. NOT FOUND: The actual September 2026 CPI print (not due until October 14, after this report), and any post-minutes public whip count or dot-plot-style survey indicating how many of the 12 FOMC voters would favor hiking in October versus waiting for December.