Will Washington’s annual-average employment in Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing for 2026 be above 87,000 jobs?

- [2026-09-18] Washington's NAICS 3364 (Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing) employment, not seasonally adjusted, per BLS/FRED series SMU53000003133640001: Aug 2026: 85.7 thousand, Jul 2026: 86.0 thousand, Jun 2026: 84.7 thousand, May 2026: 83.3 thousand, Apr 2026: 82.7 thousand . This is the latest BLS data currently published for the resolution series (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU53000003133640001). - [2026-09-18] The same BLS series shows the pace of the 2026 rebound: in late 2025 levels were much lower, e.g. Sep 2025: 76.4, Aug 2025: 76.3, Jul 2025: 76.8, Jun 2025: 75.9, May 2025: 75.9 thousand (NSA) (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU53000003133640001). Washington aerospace employment has risen roughly 9-10 thousand jobs year-over-year through mid-2026. - [2026-10-16] The next BLS "State and Metro Area Employment, Hours, and Earnings" release (which will add September 2026 data for this series) is scheduled; FRED lists the series' "Next Release Date: Oct 20, 2026" (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU53000003133640001). - [2026-09-13] A third-party workforce-data tracker citing BLS CES found that the fastest growth over the year to July 2026 was in Washington, up 7.2 percent on the 737 rate increase , consistent with Boeing ramping up 737 MAX production driving the hiring wave (https://c3workforce.com/insights/aerospace-workforce-2026). - [2026-09-13] Nationally, US aerospace product and parts manufacturing employed 594,500 people in July 2026, up 26,000 or 4.6 percent in a year , confirming the sector-wide (not just Washington) hiring upswing that is lifting the Washington figure (https://c3workforce.com/insights/aerospace-workforce-2026). - [2025-11-04] Washington's Economic & Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) reported that Washington's aerospace employment increased by 17,100 jobs since reaching a trough of 66,700 in August 2021, bringing the level to 83,800 in September 2024, but since reaching the peak, aerospace employment has declined as Boeing incorporated layoffs, reaching a trough of 78,800 in June 2025 — note this ERFC "aerospace" series is a broader state definition than strict NAICS 3364 and differs numerically from the BLS CES figures above (https://erfc.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2025-11/ec20251104.pdf). - [2026-04-01] Washington's OFM/ESD monthly economic report (April 2026 edition, covering through February 2026) showed a different (broader, seasonally adjusted) "aerospace employment" series at levels of 84,000 (Nov 2025), 81,100 (Dec 2025), 81,300 (Jan 2026) and 81,800 (Feb 2026), and noted Washington added 700 jobs month-to-month (seasonally adjusted), including 500 in aerospace and parts manufacturing in February 2026 (https://ofm.wa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/monthly_economic_report.pdf). This series is not identical to the strict NAICS 3364 CES series used for BLS annual-average resolution but shows the same recovery trend from a 2025 trough into early 2026. - [2026-08-13] Washington's Employment Security Department released updated long-range industry/occupation employment projections, noting Washington state's job growth is projected to remain slow over the next eight years… the projected annual job growth rate from 2024 to 2029 is 0.85% and from 2029 to 2034 is 0.84% for the overall economy (not aerospace-specific) (https://esd.wa.gov/about-us/news-release/2026/projected-annual-job-growth-expected-remain-slow-coming-years). - [2026-09-16] Washington ESD's latest monthly employment report publication is for data month August 2026, released September 16, 2026, with September 2026 data scheduled for release October 14, 2026 (https://esd.wa.gov/jobs-and-training/labor-market-information/reports-and-research/monthly-employment-report). - [2026-09-18] Historical FRED data (not yet refreshed with 2026 monthly detail beyond what's cited above) shows that Washington NAICS 3364 employment last exceeded 87,000 (NSA) persistently around 2019 (e.g., 87.3-89.6 thousand through mid-to-late 2019) before the Boeing 737 MAX grounding, COVID-19, and subsequent downturns pulled the level down into the 60s-70s thousands through 2021-2025 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/SMU53000003133640001). BOTTOM LINE: The latest official BLS data (through August 2026) puts Washington's NAICS 3364 aerospace employment at roughly 82.7–86.0 thousand per month (NSA) on a strong, Boeing 737-rate-driven upswing from a 2025 trough near 75-77 thousand, but it has not yet reached 87 thousand in any 2026 month; because earlier-2026 months (Jan–Mar, not yet confirmed in detail but implied lower given the 2025 trough) will drag the annual average down, hitting an annual-average above 87,000 for all of 2026 would require an unusually strong acceleration in the remaining (September–December) months not yet reflected in published data. NOT FOUND: Exact BLS NSA values for Washington NAICS 3364 for January–March 2026 and September–December 2026 (not yet published); the official BLS 2026 annual-average figure itself (BLS typically finalizes state annual averages the following spring, so it will not be available until well after this question's 2027-04-30 close in the normal release cycle — note some annual-average data can appear earlier via QCEW or preliminary CES benchmarks, but this was not located in current sources).

- [2026-04-10] Official BLS state series (SMU53000003133640001A, annual, not seasonally adjusted) shows Washington NAICS 3364 annual-average employment of 2025: 80.5, 2024: 80.1, 2023: 77.5, 2022: 71.3, 2021: 67.6 thousand jobs — every year in this run well below the 87,000 threshold. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU53000003133640001A - [2026-07-22] The companion monthly (seasonally adjusted) BLS series for the same industry/state shows a sharp 2025-26 upswing: Dec 2025: 77.92106, Nov 2025: 76.88237, Oct 2025: 76.63474, Sep 2025: 75.92593, Aug 2025: 76.05560 thousand, rising to Jun 2026: 84.88921, May 2026: 83.90361, Apr 2026: 83.22457, Mar 2026: 82.33354, Feb 2026: 81.54417 thousand. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU53000003133640001SA - [2026-09-13] A labor-market analytics summary citing BLS CES data reports Washington had the fastest growth over the year to July 2026 was in Washington, up 7.2 percent on the 737 rate increase , confirming an accelerating, not flat, trend into 2026. https://c3workforce.com/insights/aerospace-workforce-2026 - [2026-09-13] The same source notes US aerospace product and parts manufacturing employed 594,500 people in July 2026, up 26,000 or 4.6 percent in a year , with growth driven by Boeing's 737 rate increases and record order backlog, underlying the regional Washington trend. https://c3workforce.com/insights/aerospace-workforce-2026 - [2020-era, legislative briefing] As historical context on how far current levels sit below past peaks and how volatile the series has been, a Washington State Legislature briefing noted Aerospace employment: 82,700 in 2020 (annual average) , itself a pandemic-depressed figure versus a materially higher pre-2020 peak (figure not confirmed in this research). https://app.leg.wa.gov/committeeschedules/Home/Document/223739 - [2026-10 reference] Other third-party aggregations (not primary BLS annual-average series, likely annual-average-equivalent or slightly different vintage) place Washington aircraft/parts manufacturing employment around 87.3k for 2024, i.e., very close to the strike threshold, versus BLS's own official annual series showing 80.1k for 2024 — a reminder that non-BLS aggregator numbers can diverge from the official series that governs resolution. https://datausa.io/profile/naics/aircraft-parts-manufacturing - [2026 trend extrapolation] Using the SA monthly series, Washington aerospace employment rose roughly 7–9 thousand over the 10 months from Aug 2025 (~76.1k) to Jun 2026 (~84.9k), an average of about 0.9k/month; if that pace continued through December 2026, year-end levels could approach or exceed 90k, but the annual average for all of 2026 (which includes the lower early-2026 and 2025 carryover months) would land closer to the mid-80s unless growth accelerates further in H2. - [Base-rate framing] In the only five years for which the primary BLS annual series was reviewed here (2021–2025), Washington's NAICS 3364 annual-average employment never reached 87,000; the closest year was 2025 at 80.5k, meaning a jump of roughly 6.5k (+8%) over the prior year would be needed in 2026 to clear the threshold — larger than any single annual increase seen in 2021–2025 (the biggest was +5.7k in 2023). BOTTOM LINE: Historically (2021–2025) Washington's official BLS annual-average aerospace manufacturing employment has never been close to 87,000 (peaking at 80.5k in 2025), but 2026 is showing an unusually strong acceleration (SA series up from ~76k in late 2025 to ~85k by June 2026) tied to Boeing's 737 rate increases; this base rate suggests the 87,000 annual-average threshold is a stretch goal requiring the fastest sustained industry growth seen in years to be reached, making a Yes resolution a high but not impossible bar based on trend alone. NOT FOUND: An official BLS annual-average figure confirming Washington NAICS 3364 employment ever exceeded 87,000 in any historical year (including pre-2019 peaks before the 737 MAX grounding); July–September 2026 monthly data (most recent SA data found ended June 2026); any explicit BLS or ESD published forecast/projection specifically for the 2026 annual average.

YES means: BLS's officially published NSA annual-average employment figure for Washington NAICS 3364 (Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing) for calendar year 2026 comes in above 87,000 jobs. - [2026-05-27] Boeing CEO confirmed the company completed a capstone review with the FAA to further increase production of the 737 Max to a 47-jet monthly output , the key prerequisite for sustained Washington hiring acceleration through H2 2026. - [2026-07-06] Boeing activated a fourth 737 assembly line (the Everett "North Line"), with the 10-Q confirming the company is also planning for additional production rate increases beyond 47 per month and began low-rate production on a new 737 production line in July 2026 — a direct driver of additional Washington payroll adds in the second half of 2026. - [2026-07-10] Local reporting on the North Line ribbon-cutting states the line is expected to increase monthly production from 42 to 47 airplanes during a low-rate initial production (LRIP) phase increasing to 52 by early 2027 , meaning hiring to staff the 52/month target is likely already underway in late 2026 ahead of the rate hike itself. - [2026-08 (Aug-2026 data)] Washington ESD's county-profile report shows aerospace manufacturing hiring still accelerating broadly, with manufacturing up 7,300 jobs year-over-year in August 2026 and noting specifically that Aerospace manufacturing was up 5,800 over the year — a corroborating, independently sourced (ESD/CES) signal that the hiring wave was still intact as of the most recent published month. - [2026-07-22] The companion seasonally-adjusted BLS series shows employment accelerating each month through mid-2026, rising to Jun 2026: 84.88921, May 2026: 83.90361, Apr 2026: 83.22457 thousand (as cited in prior research), confirming a real, multi-month uptrend rather than a one-month blip. - [2026-09-13] A labor-market tracker citing BLS CES data found Washington had the fastest growth over the year to July 2026 was in Washington, up 7.2 percent on the 737 rate increase , among the highest state-level aerospace growth rates nationally, suggesting Washington remains the epicenter of the hiring ramp going into Q4 2026. - [2026-01-20] Industry trade analysis notes Boeing's order backlog is "sold out" at elevated rates, reporting At the end of 2025, Boeing's 737 delivery stream shows the program is sold out at a rate of 52 next year, in 2028 and beyond at a rate of 57 — implying strong incentive for Boeing to continue front-loading hiring in Washington through late 2026 to be ready for the 52/month transition. - [2026-10 mechanism] Boeing management has also signaled interest in rates beyond 52: coverage of the North Line opening notes the company is analyzing the feasibility of pushing monthly output as high as 70 aircraft , reinforcing that current hiring plans are being set against an even larger future ramp, which argues for continued strong hiring momentum rather than a plateau in Sept–Dec 2026. - [Mechanism] If Washington's NSA monthly values continue the observed +1.0 to +1.3 thousand/month trajectory seen from April (82.7k) through August (85.7k) in the colleagues' data, September–December 2026 could plausibly reach the high-80s to low-90s thousands range (NSA), which — combined with a Boeing hiring push tied to North Line ramp-up and the pending 737-7/-10 certifications expected to add further production-support staffing before year-end — is the most plausible single path to pulling the full-year 2026 average above 87,000, even though it would require the fastest four-month acceleration of the cycle. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest case for YES rests on continued, Boeing-driven, accelerating Washington aerospace hiring tied to the 737 rate-47 transition completed in summer 2026, the new Everett North Line (opened July 2026) that is explicitly meant to support a further rate increase to 52/month by early 2027, and corroborating ESD data showing aerospace manufacturing payrolls still rising sharply (+5,800 y/y) as of August 2026; for YES, this momentum would need to produce an unusually steep four-month surge in September–December 2026 NSA employment (plausible given pre-rate-hike hiring patterns) to lift the full calendar-year average above 87,000. NOT FOUND: Washington NAICS 3364 NSA employment for January–March and September–December 2026 (not yet published; next BLS release is scheduled for October 20, 2026 per earlier research); any Boeing-specific disclosure of total Washington headcount or planned net new hires for Q4 2026; an official BLS or ESD projection of the 2026 annual-average aerospace figure.

YES means: BLS's officially published 2026 annual-average (Jan–Dec, not-seasonally-adjusted CES series SMU53000003133640001A) for Washington NAICS 3364 Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing employment comes in strictly above 87,000 (i.e., ≥87.1 thousand). - [2026-04-10] Washington's official BLS annual-average series has never approached 87,000 in the last five years on record (2021: 67.6k, 2022: 71.3k, 2023: 77.5k, 2024: 80.1k, 2025: 80.5k) — a gap of roughly 6.5k would be the largest single-year jump in that span. (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SMU53000003133640001A) - [2026-10-?] Washington's own OFM monthly economic reports — using a related but not identical broader "aerospace employment" series — show levels of only 79,400 (Sep 2025), 80,800 (Oct 2025), 80,400 (Nov 2025) and 81,900 (Dec 2025), then 81,100 (Dec), 81,300 (Jan 2026) and 81,800 (Feb 2026), implying the strict NAICS 3364 series was almost certainly running well below the 82.7–86.0k April–August 2026 levels during Q1 2026. (https://ofm.wa.gov/wp-content/uploads/monthly_economic_report.pdf; https://ofm.wa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/monthly_economic_report.pdf) - Arithmetic check: using the official BLS NSA figures already published (Apr 82.7, May 83.3, Jun 84.7, Jul 86.0, Aug 85.7 = 422.4k over 5 months) and a conservative Jan–Mar estimate near 78–82k/month (≈240k over 3 months) consistent with the OFM broader-series trend, the remaining Sep–Dec 2026 months would need to average roughly 95k/month to pull the full-year average above 87,000 — a level never reached in BLS's monthly history for this series, well above even the July 2026 peak of 86.0k. This is a mechanical, not speculative, obstacle. - [2026-10-04] Washington's labor market as a whole posted a seasonally-adjusted employment decline in August 2026 (-900 jobs) and the statewide unemployment rate eased only slightly to 4.9%, signaling the broader state economy is not accelerating in a way that would support an extraordinary aerospace hiring surge in H2 2026. (https://esd.wa.gov/about-us/news-releases) - [2026-10-01] A newly ratified Boeing engineers/technical-workers union contract averted a strike deadline of October 6, 2026, but the same report notes unionized machinists "have approved strike action against the company on aircraft programs such as the 777-9 and 737 MAX 10," underscoring that renewed labor disruption remains a live downside risk to continued hiring momentum through year-end. (https://theworkersrights.com/boeing-workers-10-percent-pay-rise-4-year-contract) - [2026-05-27 to present] Boeing's 737 rate increase to 47/month, cited by colleagues as the growth driver, is explicitly described by Boeing's own CEO as requiring "a few months of stabilization" before further rate breaks, implying the production (and associated hiring) ramp decelerates rather than accelerates sharply into Q4 2026, undercutting the scenario needed for a ~95k/month Sep–Dec average. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/27/boeing-ortberg-737-max-production.html) - [Release-timing technicality] BLS's state "State and Metro Area Employment, Hours, and Earnings" annual-average figures are typically finalized and published the following spring (historically around March); Washington ESD's own 2026 reports already flag that the "annual benchmarking process was delayed" by the prior federal shutdown, raising the chance that a clean, finalized 2026 annual-average figure may not even be published by the 2027-04-30 close, in which case the contract would have no confirmed BLS annual figure to point to as "above 87,000," defaulting to NO under the stated resolution rule that assumes the event has not happened absent confirming evidence. (https://ofm.wa.gov/wp-content/uploads/monthly_economic_report.pdf) - [Base-rate/status-quo framing] Even the strongest observed single-month NSA reading in 2026 found by colleagues (86.0k in July) sits below 87,000; no month in the entire 2026 data trail reviewed (through August) has cleared the threshold, meaning the "status quo" of sub-87k readings has held in every month of the year so far. BOTTOM LINE: Both the official BLS annual-average base rate (never within 6k of 87,000 in 2021–2025) and the mechanical arithmetic of 2026's monthly path (needing an unprecedented ~95k/month average in Sep–Dec after a sub-82k Q1) make a NO resolution the heavily favored outcome; compounding this, possible labor-contract friction and typical post-rate-break stabilization lulls argue against the kind of acceleration that would be required, and the year's final BLS annual figure may not even be confirmed before the market's close. NOT FOUND: Confirmed BLS NSA figures for Washington NAICS 3364 for January–March 2026 and any 2026 month from September onward (release due Oct 14/20, 2026 for September data); any explicit BLS confirmation of the exact publication date for the finalized 2026 state annual-average figure.