Will no listed leader be out before 2027?

- [2026-06-22/2026-07-20] UK PM Keir Starmer announced resignation on 22 June 2026 amid a Labour leadership crisis and was replaced by Andy Burnham as leader on 17 July, and as Prime Minister on 20 July 2026 . His permanent departure is why later versions of this Polymarket series ("No Starmer or Petro") exclude him from the candidate list. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Labour_Party_leadership_crisis) - [2026-08-07] Colombian President Gustavo Petro's single, non-renewable term ended on schedule: right-wing political outsider Abelardo de la Espriella was inaugurated to a four-year presidential term, succeeding Gustavo Petro . Because this was a scheduled, election-linked exit (excluded under the market's rules), Petro too has been dropped from the active candidate list. (https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IN12689) - [2026-04/2026-04-25] Hungary's Viktor Orbán lost the April 12, 2026 election to Péter Magyar's Tisza party; market commentary (from an earlier, now-settled version of the sibling "Next leader out of power" market) notes the current leading outcome is "Orbán - Hungary PM" at 100% for that specific contract, with reporting that he conceded the loss... resigned party leadership, relinquished his parliamentary seat on April 25 . This transition does not affect the live "No Starmer or Petro" list, which never included Orbán as a live option after that resolved separately. - [2026-09-27] Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić resigned as head of state to run for prime minister; Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has resigned to seek the prime minister's post in a snap parliamentary election on October 25 . Vučić is not one of the listed individuals in this specific market, so this does not affect resolution of "Will no listed leader be out before 2027?" - [2026-10-09, live market] The directly relevant live Polymarket sibling market, "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)" (opened 2026-06-30, closes 2026-12-31), currently shows None before 2027 40%, Netanyahu - Israel PM 26%, Sánchez - Spanish PM 16.5%, Lecornu - France PM 5.6% among listed outcomes as of this fetch, with all other named leaders (Lula, Abbas, Merz, Takaichi, Díaz‑Canel, Erdoğan, Trump, Macron, Zelenskyy, al‑Sharaa, Xi, Putin, Rodríguez, Milei, Kim, Albanese, Sheinbaum, Newsom) priced under 2%. - [2026-10-09, market commentary] The page's own narrative flags two concrete near-term triggers still before the Dec 31, 2026 deadline: Netanyahu faces a tight October 27 Knesset vote where his Likud-led bloc polls near or below the 61-seat majority threshold and Sánchez called a November 29 snap election following parliamentary defeats on housing measures and amid corruption scrutiny , both of which the market treats as live risk factors for a "Yes" (someone out) resolution — though note the market's own rule that a scheduled election loss alone would not qualify until the officeholder actually leaves power. - [2026-10-09] Per the market's verbatim rules, if this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "None before 2027." No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. - [2026-10-09] The market explicitly reiterates that caretaker continuity and election-driven scheduled exits do not trigger resolution: An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals...will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role...they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office . - [2026-10-09] No listed individual currently in the active candidate set (Netanyahu, Sánchez, Lecornu, Lula, Abbas, Merz, Takaichi, Díaz-Canel, Erdoğan, Trump, Macron, Zelenskyy, al-Sharaa, Xi, Putin, Rodríguez, Milei, Kim, Albanese, Sheinbaum, Newsom) has, per available reporting, permanently left office as of this writing. BOTTOM LINE: As of October 9, 2026, no currently-listed leader has permanently left office; the two individuals who did leave their posts since market inception (Starmer, Petro) have already been removed from the active candidate list rather than triggering "Yes," and the remaining risk is concentrated in two scheduled votes before year-end — Israel's Oct 27 Knesset vote and Spain's Nov 29 snap election — that could, if they produce an actual change of officeholder (not merely an election result or caretaker continuation), cause the market to resolve "No" (a leader was out) before the Dec 31, 2026 deadline. NOT FOUND: The live price/probability of the specific "Will no listed leader be out before 2027?" contract itself (excluded per instructions); any confirmed post-election departure of Netanyahu or Sánchez having already occurred; any other listed leader's resignation/removal reported in the last 7–14 days beyond the items above.

- [2025-12-31] In the predecessor market "Next leader out of power in 2025?" the chain resolved with multiple YES events across the year: Japan's PM Ishiba's departure settled an earlier "First leader out of power in 2025?" market at "Ishiba - Japan PM 96.8%", and a later iteration of the chain ultimately resolved to **Yes** (Final outcome: Yes) even though the headline "None in 2025" outcome shows 100% in one snapshot, reflecting sequential resolution of individual sub-markets as specific leaders exited. "Current leading outcome is 'None in 2025' at 100.0%, followed by 'Macron - France President'... Outcome proposed: Yes, No dispute, Final outcome: Yes." - [2026-01-03] Base-rate relevant precedent: Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro was forcibly removed from power in a US military operation, confirming that even "entrenched" authoritarian leaders on these lists can exit abruptly within a single contract's life. "On 3 January 2026, Venezuela was targeted by a swift U.S. military raid, dubbed Operation Absolute Resolve, which bombed the country's air defense infrastructure and removed Maduro from power within three hours... American troops captured Maduro alongside his wife... at their Caracas residence." - [2026-01-05] The "Next leader out of power before 2027?" chain (opened Jan 5, 2026) resolved **Yes** via Dutch PM Schoof, per the resolved market page showing "Schoof - Netherlands PM 100.0%... Outcome proposed: No, No dispute, Final outcome: No" for the other candidates, with Schoof itself marked "Yes" in the outcomes list — i.e., a leader exit occurred well within the one-year window, again evidencing a high base rate of at least one listed leader departing per cycle. - [2026-02-27] A separate chapter of the same recurring market ("Next leader out of power before 2027?", opened Feb 27, 2026) resolved **Yes** on Iran's Supreme Leader: "Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader 100% ... Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader ... Yes" , confirming that across this series of markets, the "None before [year]" outcome has repeatedly lost within months, not stayed at "No one leaves" for a full year. - [2026-07-20] A subsequent chapter ("No Orban" version, opened Apr 27, 2026) resolved **Yes** on UK PM Keir Starmer leaving office: the market's official update records "\"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)\" has resolved... The winning outcome is No." for other candidates while "meta-og:temporal:event_update:time: 2026-07-20T13:14:42.000Z" marks the resolution date, with Starmer shown at "100.0%" and "Yes" in the outcomes list. - [2026-06-30] The direct predecessor to the current contract, "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)," opened essentially on the same date as this market (market opened 2026-07-01) and as of early August 2026 priced "Netanyahu leads among individual candidates at 26% as traders price in sustained coalition strains and security policy pressures in Israel... The plurality outcome of 'None before 2027' at 42.5% captures the absence of immediate term limits, scheduled votes, or acute crises for most other listed figures." This shows that even the market's own traders, as the reference-class base rate, did not see "None" as highly likely (well below 60-70%), consistent with the historical pattern of frequent mid-cycle Yes resolutions. - [2026-10-07] Reporting on the current cycle highlights Israel's national election, scheduled for October 27, 2026, as the dominant live catalyst for the Netanyahu outcome: "As Israel gears up for its first elections since Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his opponents are putting it at the heart of their campaigns... Three years on, the worst security failure in Israel's history now threatens to end the career of its longest-serving prime minister." However, per the market's own rules, "An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution." meaning a mere election loss does not itself trigger Yes — actual transfer of office (new PM sworn in) would be needed, and if Netanyahu becomes a caretaker PM amid coalition deadlock, that explicitly does not count per the "Attal caretaker" clause. - [2026-09-23] Current polling/structural analysis suggests a real possibility of post-election deadlock: "this turn of events is more than a legal dispute: it also reveals Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's broader campaign strategy for the elections, given that he is unlikely to win an outright majority... he appears to be working to prevent anyone else from forming a new government, leaving him in office as caretaker prime minister until Israel holds another round of elections." This caretaker scenario would NOT resolve the market Yes under its own rules even if Netanyahu's coalition technically loses its majority. BOTTOM LINE: Across every prior chapter of this same Polymarket "Next/First leader out of power" series (2025 and 2026), the "None" outcome has repeatedly failed to survive a full ~12-month window — Ishiba, Khamenei, Schoof, Starmer, and Maduro all triggered Yes resolutions in rapid succession — giving a high historical base rate (effectively near-100% hit rate across ~4-5 consecutive cycles) for at least one listed leader exiting before the deadline; however, the strict resolution rules (excluding caretaker status and mere election-loss announcements) make the current cycle's remaining list more resistant to a Yes than earlier lists, since the most obvious near-term catalyst (Israel's Oct 27 election) is likely to produce either a clear Netanyahu loss-and-handover (qualifying) or a caretaker deadlock (not qualifying). NOT FOUND: The exact, complete current candidate list and live consensus reporting for the specific "Will no listed leader be out before 2027?" contract as of October 2026 (post-August snapshot) could not be located; no confirmation of any additional leader departures among Díaz-Canel, Xi, Putin, Macron, Erdoğan, Sánchez, Lula, Milei, Trump, Lecornu, Merz, Sheinbaum, Abbas, Rodríguez, al-Sharaa, Albanese, Newsom, or Takaichi in the September–October 2026 period was found.

YES means: no individual on the market's listed-leader roster permanently (non-caretaker, non-temporary) leaves their office between now and 11:59 PM ET December 31, 2026, so the market resolves "None before 2027." - [2026-10-05] Sánchez called Spain's snap election for November 29, 2026, after parliament rejected his housing-crisis decrees; even in Al Jazeera's framing, facing the electorate is a risky move for Sanchez, with polls suggesting a PP-Vox coalition is the most likely outcome — but an election loss alone does not resolve this market. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/10/5/spanish-prime-minister-pedro-sanchez-announces-snap-election - [2026-10-06] Spain's own government confirms the election mechanics keep Sánchez's cabinet operating in a reduced "caretaker" capacity through the vote, since calling the election on November 29 has allowed Sanchez to bring in new rules with the support of a smaller caretaker body, with measures sent for approval by caretaker lawmakers remaining after parliament's dissolution . https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-10-06/spain-expected-to-approve-housing-decrees-that-triggered-snap-election - [2023, precedent] Spain's last hung-parliament transition shows how slow handovers are: after the 2023 election, the previous Sánchez cabinet was forced to remain in a caretaker capacity for 116 days until the next government could be sworn in — applying that precedent to a Nov 29, 2026 vote would push any actual investiture well past the Dec 31 deadline, meaning Sánchez (or a caretaker successor) very plausibly still "occupies the office" when trading closes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Spanish_government_formation - [2026-10-07] On France, Lecornu has survived every no-confidence motion since October 2025, and reporting shows his 2027 budget process extends into mid-November with a vote not expected until parliament debating the 2027 package through the month ahead of a Nov. 17 vote , after which any no-confidence attempt would still need to clear the 289-vote threshold he has cleared repeatedly. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/france-budget-debt-deficit-government.html - [2026-10-01] France's hard-right/hard-left blocs remain split rather than unified against Lecornu, with Le Pen's RN again signaling conditional cooperation rather than automatic no-confidence, per reporting that the Socialists are threatening a vote of no confidence over inheritance tax while RN's posture is separately transactional — a fragmented opposition that has repeatedly failed to reach 289 votes. https://www.ilfoglio.it/en/economy/2026/10/01/news/lecornus-government-and-the-54-billion-save-france-budget--409252 - [2026-10-01] Even optimistic "Lecornu falls" scenarios in Western press frame it as his premiership's "probable last months," not an imminent ouster, since analysts expect him to try to end the probable last months of his premiership by forcing through a budget that will, in theory at least, begin the lengthy task of cleaning up France's state finances — i.e., survival into 2027 is the base case cited by strategists. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/france-budget-debt-deficit-government.html - [2026-10-05] On Israel, the independent election tracker shows the race in genuine gridlock rather than a clean Netanyahu defeat, with MEF's averages as of October 5 showing the opposition polling at 52 seats, meaning they would need coalition partners to reach the requisite majority of 61 seats . https://alexthurston.substack.com/p/israels-elections-a-look-three-weeks - [2026-07-xx, analyst outlook] A risk-advisory outlook concluded the most probable post-election paths are stalemate, not transition: Israel's political system remains locked in a stalemate, with most polls placing the Bennett-led opposition bloc at roughly 58–60 seats and Netanyahu's coalition at 50–52 seats, leaving neither side a clear governing majority, and the most likely post-election scenarios include prolonged deadlock, another round of elections, or a difficult unity arrangement . https://www.steptoe.com/en/news-publications/stepwise-risk-outlook/israels-2026-elections-the-political-landscape-and-strategic-outlook.html - [2026-10-01, mechanism] Even if Netanyahu loses his bloc's majority outright, Israeli law gives any designated PM-candidate a lengthy, extendable mandate before a transfer occurs: the prime ministerial candidate has four weeks, or 28 days, to try to form a coalition, which can be extended by two weeks, and at the end of the mandate period either there is a coalition or not — pushing any actual swearing-in of a successor toward late November/December at the earliest, and into deadlock/caretaker territory (explicitly excluded by the market's own rules) if talks fail. - [2026-10-09] Beyond Spain, France and Israel, no credible reporting surfaced of imminent departure risk for any of the other ~17 listed leaders (Lula, Abbas, Merz, Takaichi, Díaz-Canel, Erdoğan, Trump, Macron, Zelenskyy, al-Sharaa, Xi, Putin, Rodríguez, Milei, Kim, Albanese, Sheinbaum, Newsom), consistent with the sub-2% pricing colleagues already found for each. BOTTOM LINE: The strongest path to YES ("None before 2027") rests on the same three live flashpoints colleagues identified actually failing to produce a qualifying permanent exit: Lecornu's demonstrated pattern of surviving no-confidence votes through a budget fight that only concludes in mid-November, Spain's historical precedent (116 days in 2023) of caretaker-only transitions after elections that would push any real Sánchez handover past Dec 31, and Israel's 28-to-42-day coalition-formation mechanics combined with genuine polling deadlock that make a prolonged Netanyahu caretaker stint or renewed stalemate more probable than a clean, completed transfer of power before year-end. NOT FOUND: Any confirmed post-election change of prime minister in Israel or Spain as of October 9, 2026 (both votes are still weeks away); any indication Lecornu's government has already fallen since the October 1 budget unveiling; any primary Polymarket order-book data beyond what colleagues already report (excluded per instructions).

YES means: no listed individual (Netanyahu, Sánchez, Lecornu, Lula, Abbas, Merz, Takaichi, Díaz-Canel, Erdoğan, Trump, Macron, Zelenskyy, al-Sharaa, Xi, Putin, Rodríguez, Milei, Kim, Albanese, Sheinbaum, Newsom) permanently and non-caretaker-ly leaves their listed office between now and Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET — i.e., the market resolves "None before 2027." My dimension argues the opposite: the case that this resolves NO, because at least one listed leader is likely to actually vacate office (not just lose an election or go caretaker) before the deadline. - [2026-10-01] Lecornu's 2027 budget fight has a hard parliamentary trigger: his finance bill was formally submitted by the 6 October deadline and will be "debated through the month ahead of a Nov. 17 vote," explicitly flagged by markets as risking toppling "another one of President Emmanuel Macron's prime ministers." (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/france-budget-debt-deficit-government.html) - [2026-10-01] Analysts frame this as probably "the last months of his premiership," since Lecornu is trying to force through a budget before an anticipated exit, continuing a pattern where France ousted governments via no-confidence in Dec 2024 and Sept 2025. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/france-budget-debt-deficit-government.html) - [2026-01/2026-02] Lecornu has twice already survived no-confidence votes by the narrowest of margins (271/289 needed in Oct 2025, 267/289 in Jan 2026), showing the mechanism for his ouster is live and recurring roughly every budget cycle — and a Nov 17 vote falls squarely inside the market's window. (https://www.france24.com/en/france/20260127-french-pm-lecornu-survives-no-confidence-votes-as-budget-moves-forward) - [2026-10-05] Spain's Pedro Sánchez dissolved the Cortes and called a snap election for Nov. 29, with the official decree establishing "a 54-day time period" running straight toward the vote — meaning any investiture/handover process would land inside the market's Oct–Dec window, not after it. (https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2026/10/05/spanish-socialist-pm-pedro-sanchez-calls-for-november-29-snap-election/) - [2026-10-05] Polling cited by CNBC shows "a right-wing coalition could take power in Spain," with the PP open to governing with Vox — a scenario that, unlike 2023's drawn-out deadlock, could produce a swift, decisive investiture of a new PM before year-end rather than months of impasse. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/05/spain-sanchez-snap-election-housing-protests.html) - [2026-10-08] Israeli polling remains razor-thin and volatile day to day — a Channel 13 poll put Netanyahu's bloc at 55 seats to 50 "however, Netanyahu is still not predicted to be able to form a coalition," while a same-day Times of Israel poll shows "the anti-Netanyahu bloc" regaining the lead — underscoring that a clean opposition majority (which would trigger a qualifying handover, not a caretaker scenario) remains plausible. (https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-october-08-2026/) - [2026-09-27] Five Israeli opposition leaders (Lapid, Lieberman, Gantz, Mansour Abbas, Odeh) formally signed a coordination pact "to unite their efforts to replace Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government," explicitly pre-committing to try to form a government quickly rather than drift into prolonged caretaker limbo. (https://newscord.org/article/five-israeli-opposition-leaders-agree-to-coordinate-to-replace-netanyahu-governm--Story_20260927_31920074) - [2026-10-05] PBS reporting still treats a clean opposition coalition win as realistic, even while flagging the caretaker-deadlock risk, showing the race remains "genuinely uncertain" rather than pre-determined toward caretaker status. (https://pbs.org/newshour/show/netanyahus-handling-of-oct-7-emerges-as-key-issue-in-israeli-election) - [2026-10-09] Taken together, France (Nov 17 budget/no-confidence vote), Spain (Nov 29 election plus a fast 54-day post-dissolution process), and Israel (Oct 27 election with real chance of outright opposition majority) all create concrete, dated mechanisms — independent of each other — for an actual non-caretaker transfer of power before Dec 31, 2026, any one of which would resolve this market's title to NO. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/24/france-budget-debt-deficit-government.html, https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2026/10/05/spanish-socialist-pm-pedro-sanchez-calls-for-november-29-snap-election/, https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-october-08-2026/) BOTTOM LINE: Three independent, calendar-anchored triggers — France's Nov 17 budget/no-confidence vote, Spain's Nov 29 election with a compressed post-dissolution timetable, and Israel's Oct 27 election amid genuinely uncertain, non-caretaker-majority polling — each offer a plausible, dated path to an actual (non-caretaker, non-mere-election-loss) change of officeholder before the Dec 31, 2026 deadline, which is why "None before 2027" is not a lock despite the market's strict caretaker/election-loss exclusions. NOT FOUND: No confirmed post-election handover (new PM/head of state actually sworn in, old one departed) for Netanyahu, Sánchez, or any other listed leader as of Oct 9, 2026; no confirmation of a scheduled no-confidence vote date in France beyond the Nov 17 budget vote; no polling-average consensus on whether Spain's Nov 29 election will produce a fast, decisive investiture versus a prolonged deadlock.